UTRGV vs Northwestern State Volleyball: UTRGV Wins 3-0

FinalThu, Oct 8, 2026ESPN+

3:0

RallyIQ pre-match: UTRGV 89.6% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 8, 6:25 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

UTRGV won at Northwestern St. 3-0 (25-21, 25-20, 25-18) on Thu, Oct 8, 2026. UTRGV's Ema Petkovic led with 15 kills, and Celianiz Cabranes added 11 digs.

Data through Nov 4, 2:50 PM CT · final Oct 8

Set	1	2	3	Sets
UTRGV	25	25	25	3
NW ST	21	20	18	0

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Ema Petkovic needed just 3 sets for 15 kills. UTRGV swept Northwestern St.

The biggest single-rally swing was 1.9 points, and Northwestern St.'s high was 15% in Set 1. The gap came from these numbers. UTRGV went in as RallyIQ's 90% pick.

UTRGVNorthwestern St.

Break %+13.5 pts
47.934.4
Points won on own serve: 35 of 73 vs 21 of 61. Northwestern St. sided out 52.1% of the time.
Hitting+.168
.330.162
47 K / 13 E against 35 K / 18 E.
Longest run+3
63
UTRGV scored 6 straight in the third set to go from 15–15 to a 21–15 lead. Final score of the set: 25–18.

Northwestern St. above 50UTRGV belowMax swing 1.9%

UTRGVNorthwestern St.

Aces: UTRGV 5·Northwestern St. 2
Serve err: UTRGV 9·Northwestern St. 5
Blocks: UTRGV 6·Northwestern St. 72 BS · 8 BA vs 3 BS · 8 BA
Digs: UTRGV 42·Northwestern St. 40

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Northwestern St. above 50 · UTRGV below

Biggest swing: 1.9% to Northwestern St. — set 1, UTRGV 9-11 NW ST. Attack error by Martina Franco. NW ST win probability 13% → 15%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

UTRGV 89.0%11.0% NW ST

UTRGV wins

3-0

42.8%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

14.6%

Northwestern St. wins

3-0

1.5%

3-1

3.4%

3-2

6.1%

UTRGV break %: 46.7% vs this opp
NW ST break %: 37.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Martina FrancoAttack error+1.9%
Attack error by Martina Franco
Set 1 · UTRGV 9-11 NW ST · NW ST 13% → 15%
02
Olivia NziokiKill+1.7%
Kill by Olivia Nzioki (set by Jade Longlad)
Set 1 · UTRGV 6-8 NW ST · NW ST 12% → 14%
03
Elsie SanchezAttack error+1.7%
Attack error by Elsie Sanchez
Set 1 · UTRGV 11-11 NW ST · UTRGV 86% → 88%
04
Martina FrancoKill+1.6%
Kill by Martina Franco
Set 1 · UTRGV 12-11 NW ST · UTRGV 88% → 90%
05
Martina Franco&Aaliyah SneadBlock+1.6%
Olivia Nzioki stuffed by Martina Franco & Aaliyah Snead
Set 1 · UTRGV 9-9 NW ST · UTRGV 87% → 88%
06
Ema PetkovicAttack error+1.5%
Attack error by Ema Petkovic
Set 1 · UTRGV 6-7 NW ST · NW ST 11% → 12%
07
Olivia NziokiAttack error+1.4%
Attack error by Olivia Nzioki
Set 1 · UTRGV 13-11 NW ST · UTRGV 90% → 91%
08
UTRGVService error+1.3%
UTRGV service error
Set 1 · UTRGV 7-9 NW ST · NW ST 13% → 14%

Box score

Official NCAA box

UTRGVaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
7Ema PetkovicOH	3	15	3	31	.387	0	1	3	5	0	0	2	1	17
1Martina FrancoOH	3	10	5	26	.192	0	2	0	10	1	0	2	1	13
22Julianna BryantMB	3	10	1	15	.600	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	11
2Aaliyah SneadMB	3	7	1	15	.400	0	0	0	2	0	2	2	3	10
25Soukeyna DioufOH	3	5	2	14	.214	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5
10Lana RnjakS	3	0	1	2	-.500	41	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	1
21Carmina TijerinaDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	2	3	0	0	0	0	1
5Celianiz CabranesL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	2	11	0	0	0	0	0
8Dunja StankovicDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	8	1	0	0	0	0
6Agata MakowskaS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		47	13	103	.330	42	5	9	42	2	2	8	6	75

Northwestern St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
22Olivia NziokiMB	3	8	4	21	.190	0	0	0	0	0	2	3	3.5	11.5
17Elsie SanchezOH	3	8	4	27	.148	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	8
4Kenadii WinfreyMB	3	1	2	4	-.250	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	2
11Jade LongladS	3	0	1	2	-.500	27	1	3	6	0	0	2	1	2
16Anna Claire HebertS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	1	9	0	0	0	0	0
5Gillian Grace WolfOH	2	1	1	3	.000	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	1
6Amber CraigOH	3	11	0	17	.647	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	11.5
2Emmarie McFarlandL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	1	0	14	0	0	0	0	1
12Valerie BrownL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
9Elizabeth MuguruzaOH	2	6	6	28	.000	0	0	1	6	1	0	1	0.5	6.5
7Harper CauleyL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
1Julia WhitfieldMB	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
Team totals		35	18	105	.162	35	2	5	40	5	3	8	7	59

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

UTRGV vs Northwestern St.

Season series · UTRGV leads 1-0

Thu, Oct 8, 2026UTRGV at Northwestern St. · UTRGV won 3-0This match
Sat, Nov 7, 2026Northwestern St. at UTRGVPreview →

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 UTRGV · NW ST 3

Set 1

25-21

Longest run 4 UTRGVNW ST 3

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 4 UTRGVNW ST 3

Set 3

25-18

Longest run 6 UTRGVNW ST 3

Bars above the line = Northwestern St. leads, below = UTRGV leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

UTRGV

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	57%8/14	33%3/9
2	58%7/12	56%9/16
3	70%7/10	42%5/12
4	86%6/7	45%5/11
5	67%6/9	45%5/11
6	67%6/9	57%8/14
All	66%40/61	48%35/73

Northwestern St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%8/12	42%5/12
2	41%7/17	43%6/14
3	50%6/12	30%3/10
4	67%6/9	25%2/8
5	43%6/14	14%1/7
6	56%5/9	40%4/10
All	52%38/73	34%21/61

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

134 rallies

#	UTRGV-NW ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	NW ST	NW ST	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Anna Claire Hebert	+1.2
2	1-1	NW ST	UTRGV	Kill	Aaliyah Snead	set Lana Rnjak	+0.8
3	1-2	UTRGV	NW ST	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Jade Longlad	+1.0
4	2-2	NW ST	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+0.9
5	2-3	UTRGV	NW ST	Blocked	Julianna Bryant	blk Olivia Nzioki	+1.0
6	3-3	NW ST	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+0.9
7	3-4	UTRGV	NW ST	Serve err	UTRGV		+1.0
8	4-4	NW ST	UTRGV	Serve err	Northwestern St.		+0.9
9	4-5	UTRGV	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+1.1
10	5-5	NW ST	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+0.9
11	6-5	UTRGV	UTRGV	Ace	UTRGV	aced Gillian Grace Wolf	+1.2
12	6-6	UTRGV	NW ST×3	Kill	Amber Craig	set Jade Longlad	+1.0
13	6-7	NW ST	NW ST×3	Attack err	Ema Petkovic		+1.5
14	6-8	NW ST	NW ST×3	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Jade Longlad	+1.7
15	7-8	NW ST	UTRGV	Kill	Aaliyah Snead	set Lana Rnjak	+1.1
16	7-9	UTRGV	NW ST	Serve err	UTRGV		+1.3
17	8-9	NW ST	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+1.1
18	9-9	UTRGV	UTRGV	Blocked	Olivia Nzioki	blk Martina Franco, Aaliyah Snead	+1.6
19	9-10	UTRGV	NW ST	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Jade Longlad	+1.3
20	9-11	NW ST	NW ST	Attack err	Martina Franco		+1.9
21	10-11	NW ST	UTRGV×4	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+1.2
22	11-11	UTRGV	UTRGV×4	Attack err	Elsie Sanchez		+1.7
23	12-11	UTRGV	UTRGV×4	Kill	Martina Franco		+1.6
24	13-11	UTRGV	UTRGV×4	Attack err	Olivia Nzioki		+1.4
25	13-12	UTRGV	NW ST	Serve err	UTRGV		+1.0
26	14-12	NW ST	UTRGV	Kill	Julianna Bryant	set Lana Rnjak	+1.0
27	14-13	UTRGV	NW ST	Serve err	UTRGV		+1.1
28	15-13	NW ST	UTRGV×4	Serve err	Northwestern St.		+1.1
29	16-13	UTRGV	UTRGV×4	Kill	Soukeyna Diouf		+1.3
30	17-13	UTRGV	UTRGV×4	Ace	UTRGV	aced Gillian Grace Wolf	+1.0
31	18-13	UTRGV	UTRGV×4	Ace	UTRGV	aced Elsie Sanchez	+0.7
32	18-14	UTRGV	NW ST	Kill	Amber Craig	set Jade Longlad	+0.4
33	19-14	NW ST	UTRGV	Kill	Julianna Bryant	set Lana Rnjak	+0.5
34	20-14	UTRGV	UTRGV	Attack err	Gillian Grace Wolf		+0.4
35	20-15	UTRGV	NW ST	Kill	Amber Craig	set Jade Longlad	+0.2
36	21-15	NW ST	UTRGV	Kill	Soukeyna Diouf	set Lana Rnjak	+0.2
37	21-16	UTRGV	NW ST	Kill	Amber Craig	set Jade Longlad	+0.1
38	21-17	NW ST	NW ST	Kill	Gillian Grace Wolf	set Jade Longlad	+0.4
39	22-17	NW ST	UTRGV	Kill	Aaliyah Snead	set Lana Rnjak	+0.4
40	23-17	UTRGV	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Celianiz Cabranes	+0.2
41	23-18	UTRGV	NW ST	Serve err	UTRGV		+0.1
42	23-19	NW ST	NW ST	Blocked	Aaliyah Snead	blk Olivia Nzioki	+0.2
43	24-19	NW ST	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+0.3
44	24-20	UTRGV	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+0.1
45	24-21	NW ST	NW ST	Ace	Northwestern St.	aced Martina Franco	+0.3
46	25-21	NW ST	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+0.4
Set 2
1	1-0	UTRGV	UTRGV	Kill	Soukeyna Diouf	set Lana Rnjak	+0.7
2	1-1	UTRGV	NW ST	Kill	Amber Craig	set Jade Longlad	+0.6
3	2-1	NW ST	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+0.5
4	3-1	UTRGV	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+0.7
5	3-2	UTRGV	NW ST	Kill	Elizabeth Muguruza	set Jade Longlad	+0.5
6	4-2	NW ST	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+0.5
7	4-3	UTRGV	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+0.5
8	5-3	NW ST	UTRGV	Blocked	Elsie Sanchez	blk Julianna Bryant, Ema Petkovic	+0.5
9	5-4	UTRGV	NW ST	Blocked	Ema Petkovic	blk Kenadii Winfrey	+0.5
10	6-4	NW ST	UTRGV	Serve err	Northwestern St.		+0.5
11	7-4	UTRGV	UTRGV	Kill	Julianna Bryant	set Lana Rnjak	+0.6
12	7-5	UTRGV	NW ST	Kill	Kenadii Winfrey	set Jade Longlad	+0.4
13	8-5	NW ST	UTRGV×3	Kill	Soukeyna Diouf	set Lana Rnjak	+0.4
14	9-5	UTRGV	UTRGV×3	Kill	Soukeyna Diouf	set Lana Rnjak	+0.5
15	10-5	UTRGV	UTRGV×3	Blocked	Kenadii Winfrey	blk Aaliyah Snead	+0.4
16	10-6	UTRGV	NW ST	Attack err	Lana Rnjak		+0.3
17	10-7	NW ST	NW ST	Attack err	Soukeyna Diouf		+0.5
18	11-7	NW ST	UTRGV	Kill	Aaliyah Snead	set Lana Rnjak	+0.4
19	11-8	UTRGV	NW ST	Kill	Amber Craig	set Jade Longlad	+0.4
20	12-8	NW ST	UTRGV×4	Kill	Aaliyah Snead	set Lana Rnjak	+0.4
21	13-8	UTRGV	UTRGV×4	Attack err	Elizabeth Muguruza		+0.4
22	14-8	UTRGV	UTRGV×4	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+0.3
23	15-8	UTRGV	UTRGV×4	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+0.2
24	15-9	UTRGV	NW ST	Blocked	Martina Franco	blk Olivia Nzioki, Jade Longlad	+0.1
25	15-10	NW ST	NW ST	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Jade Longlad	+0.2
26	16-10	NW ST	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+0.2
27	17-10	UTRGV	UTRGV	Blocked	Elsie Sanchez	blk Ema Petkovic, Julianna Bryant	+0.2
28	17-11	UTRGV	NW ST	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Jade Longlad	+0.1
29	17-12	NW ST	NW ST	Attack err	Martina Franco		+0.2
30	18-12	NW ST	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+0.2
31	18-13	UTRGV	NW ST	Serve err	UTRGV		+0.1
32	19-13	NW ST	UTRGV	Kill	Julianna Bryant	set Lana Rnjak	+0.2
33	20-13	UTRGV	UTRGV	Kill	Julianna Bryant	set Lana Rnjak	+0.2
34	20-14	UTRGV	NW ST×3	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Kenadii Winfrey	+0.1
35	20-15	NW ST	NW ST×3	Kill	Amber Craig	set Jade Longlad	+0.2
36	20-16	NW ST	NW ST×3	Kill	Elizabeth Muguruza	set Emmarie McFarland	+0.3
37	21-16	NW ST	UTRGV	Kill	Julianna Bryant	set Lana Rnjak	+0.3
38	21-17	UTRGV	NW ST	Serve err	UTRGV		+0.2
39	22-17	NW ST	UTRGV	Attack err	Elizabeth Muguruza		+0.3
40	22-18	UTRGV	NW ST×3	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Jade Longlad	+0.1
41	22-19	NW ST	NW ST×3	Kill	Olivia Nzioki	set Jade Longlad	+0.4
42	22-20	NW ST	NW ST×3	Kill	Elizabeth Muguruza	set Anna Claire Hebert	+0.8
43	23-20	NW ST	UTRGV×3	Serve err	Northwestern St.		+0.8
44	24-20	UTRGV	UTRGV×3	Blocked	Jade Longlad	blk Aaliyah Snead	+0.6
45	25-20	UTRGV	UTRGV×3	Attack err	Elizabeth Muguruza		+0.1
Set 3
1	1-0	NW ST	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+0.2
2	1-1	UTRGV	NW ST	Kill	Elizabeth Muguruza	set Elsie Sanchez	+0.3
3	2-1	NW ST	UTRGV	Serve err	Northwestern St.		+0.3
4	3-1	UTRGV	UTRGV	Attack err	Olivia Nzioki		+0.3
5	3-2	UTRGV	NW ST	Serve err	UTRGV		+0.2
6	4-2	NW ST	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+0.2
7	4-3	UTRGV	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Anna Claire Hebert	+0.3
8	4-4	NW ST	NW ST	Ace	Northwestern St.	aced Dunja Stankovic	+0.4
9	5-4	NW ST	UTRGV	Kill	Julianna Bryant	set Lana Rnjak	+0.3
10	5-5	UTRGV	NW ST	Kill	Amber Craig	set Jade Longlad	+0.3
11	5-6	NW ST	NW ST	Kill	Amber Craig	set Jade Longlad	+0.5
12	6-6	NW ST	UTRGV×5	Kill	Julianna Bryant	set Lana Rnjak	+0.3
13	7-6	UTRGV	UTRGV×5	Attack err	Elizabeth Muguruza		+0.4
14	8-6	UTRGV	UTRGV×5	Kill	Aaliyah Snead	set Lana Rnjak	+0.4
15	9-6	UTRGV	UTRGV×5	Attack err	Kenadii Winfrey		+0.3
16	10-6	UTRGV	UTRGV×5	Attack err	Elizabeth Muguruza		+0.3
17	10-7	UTRGV	NW ST	Serve err	UTRGV		+0.2
18	11-7	NW ST	UTRGV	Kill	Aaliyah Snead	set Lana Rnjak	+0.2
19	12-7	UTRGV	UTRGV	Attack err	Elizabeth Muguruza		+0.2
20	12-8	UTRGV	NW ST×3	Blocked	Soukeyna Diouf	blk Olivia Nzioki, Amber Craig	+0.1
21	12-9	NW ST	NW ST×3	Blocked	Ema Petkovic	blk Olivia Nzioki, Elizabeth Muguruza	+0.2
22	12-10	NW ST	NW ST×3	Kill	Elizabeth Muguruza	set Anna Claire Hebert	+0.3
23	13-10	NW ST	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+0.3
24	14-10	UTRGV	UTRGV	Blocked	Olivia Nzioki	blk Martina Franco, Aaliyah Snead	+0.3
25	14-11	UTRGV	NW ST×3	Kill	Elizabeth Muguruza	set Emmarie McFarland	+0.2
26	14-12	NW ST	NW ST×3	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+0.4
27	14-13	NW ST	NW ST×3	Attack err	Martina Franco		+0.5
28	15-13	NW ST	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+0.4
29	15-14	UTRGV	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	+0.4
30	15-15	NW ST	NW ST	Blocked	Martina Franco	blk Jade Longlad, Julia Whitfield	+0.6
31	16-15	NW ST	UTRGV×6	Kill	Julianna Bryant	set Lana Rnjak	+0.5
32	17-15	UTRGV	UTRGV×6	Attack err	Elsie Sanchez		+0.6
33	18-15	UTRGV	UTRGV×6	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+0.5
34	19-15	UTRGV	UTRGV×6	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+0.3
35	20-15	UTRGV	UTRGV×6	Kill	Martina Franco		+0.2
36	21-15	UTRGV	UTRGV×6	Ace	UTRGV	aced Harper Cauley	+0.1
37	21-16	UTRGV	NW ST	Kill	Elsie Sanchez	set Jade Longlad	·
38	22-16	NW ST	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+0.1
39	22-17	UTRGV	NW ST	Kill	Amber Craig	set Jade Longlad	·
40	23-17	NW ST	UTRGV	Kill	Julianna Bryant	set Lana Rnjak	+0.1
41	23-18	UTRGV	NW ST	Kill	Amber Craig	set Jade Longlad	·
42	24-18	NW ST	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	·
43	25-18	UTRGV	UTRGV	Ace	UTRGV	aced Elizabeth Muguruza	·

Score shown after each rally, UTRGV first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

UTRGV def. Northwestern St. 3–0

Ema Petkovic needed just 3 sets for 15 kills. UTRGV swept Northwestern St.