FinalFri, Oct 23, 2026Watch on ACCNX

NC State def. Wake Forest 3–0

RallyIQ pre-match: NC State 77.6% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 23, 5:06 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

NC State beat visiting Wake Forest 3-0 (25-19, 25-10, 25-23) on Fri, Oct 23, 2026. NC State's Britni Silver led with 11 kills, and Zuzanna Maciejewicz added 12 digs.

Data through · final Oct 23

Set123Sets
WAKE1910230
NC ST2525253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

On its own serve, NC State won 37 of 73 points.

No single rally moved win probability more than 2.1 points. Wake Forest peaked at 25% in Set 1. These are the stats that built the gap. RallyIQ gave NC State 78% before first serve.

Wake ForestNC State
  • Break %+21.1 pts
    29.650.7

    On serve: 37/73 against 16/54 (Wake Forest sideout 49.3%).

  • Hitting+.166
    .182.348

    Kills and errors: 44–13 vs 28–12.

  • Longest run+3
    36

    6 straight NC State points in the second set stretched an 11–7 lead to 17–7. That set ended 25–10.

NC State above 50Wake Forest belowMax swing 2.1%

Wake ForestNC State

Aces
Wake Forest 1·NC State 7
Serve err
Wake Forest 12·NC State 10
Blocks
Wake Forest 4·NC State 50 BS · 8 BA vs 1 BS · 8 BA
Digs
Wake Forest 28·NC State 43

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

NC State above 50 · Wake Forest below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+2.1% WAKErally 127 · set 3

Biggest swing: 2.1% to Wake Forest — set 1, WAKE 3-2 NC ST. Attack error by Britni Silver. NC ST win probability 77% → 75%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

WAKE 23.5%76.5% NC ST

Wake Forest wins

3-0
4.1%
3-1
8.0%
3-2
11.5%

NC State wins

3-0
28.3%
3-1
29.1%
3-2
19.1%
WAKE break %
39.0% vs this opp
NC ST break %
44.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Britni SilverAttack error+2.1%

    Attack error by Britni Silver

    Set 1 · WAKE 3-2 NC ST · WAKE 23% → 25%

  2. 02
    Talia FrancomKill+2.0%

    Kill by Talia Francom (set by Eva Long)

    Set 3 · WAKE 23-25 NC ST · NC ST 98% → 100%

  3. 03
    Norah BuschAttack error+2.0%

    Attack error by Norah Busch

    Set 1 · WAKE 16-18 NC ST · WAKE 16% → 18%

  4. 04
    Jordan SmithKill+1.9%

    Kill by Jordan Smith (set by Eva Long)

    Set 1 · WAKE 3-4 NC ST · NC ST 77% → 79%

  5. 05
    Wake ForestService error+1.9%

    Wake Forest service error

    Set 1 · WAKE 17-20 NC ST · NC ST 82% → 84%

  6. 06
    NC StateAce+1.8%

    NC State ace on Lyla Stewart

    Set 1 · WAKE 4-6 NC ST · NC ST 79% → 81%

  7. 07
    Ryleigh WhitekettleAttack error+1.8%

    Attack error by Ryleigh Whitekettle

    Set 1 · WAKE 17-21 NC ST · NC ST 84% → 86%

  8. 08
    Wake ForestService error+1.8%

    Wake Forest service error

    Set 1 · WAKE 16-19 NC ST · NC ST 82% → 84%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
37117.353004730007
35319.10510020031.56.5
3519.444001100005
33323.00000000010.53.5
3023-.667912200001
2306.500000000214
3517.571000200005
3001.000202800000
3000–001220000
3000–1201300000
2013-.333001000211
1000–200000000
1000–000110000
Team totals281288.1822611228708452
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
311623.2172036002112
3709.778101201229
3519.444012200217
3407.57127011000215
3001.000241700004
3000–101400000
39420.250000000009
38218.333000000008
3001.0007111210001
1001.000010000001
1000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals441389.3484071043118575

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Wake Forest vs NC State

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 3 WAKE · NC ST 6

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 3 WAKENC ST 3

Set 2

10-25

Longest run 2 WAKENC ST 6

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 3 WAKENC ST 4

Bars above the line = NC State leads, below = Wake Forest leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Wake Forest

SlotSideout %Break %
1
73%8/11
30%3/10
2
42%8/19
20%2/10
3
38%5/13
38%5/13
4
45%5/11
29%2/7
5
63%5/8
17%1/6
6
45%5/11
38%3/8
All
49%36/73
30%16/54

NC State

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%8/12
33%3/9
2
89%8/9
50%8/16
3
58%7/12
50%7/14
4
71%5/7
50%5/10
5
71%5/7
55%6/11
6
71%5/7
62%8/13
All
70%38/54
51%37/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

127 rallies

#WAKE-NC STSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1WAKENC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+1.3
21-1NC STWAKEServe errNC State+1.4
31-2WAKENC STServe errWake Forest+1.3
42-2NC STWAKEKillAmina Ndiayeset Becca Bellows+1.4
53-2WAKEWAKEAttack errBritni Silver+2.1
63-3WAKENC STKillTalia Francomset Eva Long+1.4
73-4NC STNC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+1.9
84-4NC STWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Becca Bellows+1.5
94-5WAKENC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+1.4
104-6NC STNC STAceNC Stateaced Lyla Stewart+1.8
115-6NC STWAKEKillSanaa Williamsset Emma Keeping+1.4
125-7WAKENC STServe errWake Forest+1.4
135-8NC STNC STAceNC Stateaced Lyla Stewart+1.7
146-8NC STWAKEKillSanaa Williamsset Emma Keeping+1.2
156-9WAKENC STKillEva Long+1.2
167-9NC STWAKEKillLaiya Eboset Emma Keeping+1.2
177-10WAKENC STServe errWake Forest+1.3
187-11NC STNC STAceNC Stateaced Lyla Stewart+1.5
198-11NC STWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Becca Bellows+1.0
208-12WAKENC STKillEva Longset Talia Francom+1.1
219-12NC STWAKEKillAmina Ndiayeset Ryleigh Whitekettle+1.0
2210-12WAKEWAKEBlockedJordan Smithblk Ryleigh Whitekettle, Sanaa Williams+1.8
2310-13WAKENC STKillJordan Smithset Britni Silver+1.4
2410-14NC STNC STKillClara Vondranset Eva Long+1.6
2511-14NC STWAKEServe errNC State+1.0
2611-15WAKENC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+1.2
2711-16NC STNC STKillNorah Buschset Eva Long+1.3
2812-16NC STWAKEKillSanaa Williamsset Emma Keeping+0.7
2912-17WAKENC STKillClara Vondranset Eva Long+0.9
3013-17NC STWAKEKillLaiya Eboset Emma Keeping+0.7
3113-18WAKENC STKillClara Vondranset Zuzanna Maciejewicz+0.9
3214-18NC STWAKE×3KillCatherine Burkeset Emma Keeping+0.7
3315-18WAKEWAKE×3Attack errBritni Silver+1.4
3416-18WAKEWAKE×3Attack errNorah Busch+2.0
3516-19WAKENC STServe errWake Forest+1.8
3617-19NC STWAKEServe errNC State+1.5
3717-20WAKENC ST×3Serve errWake Forest+1.9
3817-21NC STNC ST×3Attack errRyleigh Whitekettle+1.8
3917-22NC STNC ST×3KillBritni Silverset Eva Long+1.1
4018-22NC STWAKEKillCatherine Burkeset Becca Bellows+0.4
4119-22WAKEWAKEBlockedBritni Silverblk Sanaa Williams, Amina Ndiaye+1.0
4219-23WAKENC ST×3KillTalia Francomset Eva Long+1.2
4319-24NC STNC ST×3KillClara Vondranset Eva Long+0.7
4419-25NC STNC ST×3KillJordan Smithset Britni Silver+0.2
Set 2
10-1NC STNC STAttack errRyleigh Whitekettle+1.4
21-1NC STWAKEKillCatherine Burkeset Becca Bellows+1.1
32-1WAKEWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Becca Bellows+1.6
42-2WAKENC ST×5KillBritni Silverset Kate Kilpatrick+1.1
52-3NC STNC ST×5BlockedRyleigh Whitekettleblk Britni Silver, Talia Francom+1.4
62-4NC STNC ST×5KillBritni Silverset Eva Long+1.3
72-5NC STNC ST×5BlockedAmina Ndiayeblk Eva Long, Talia Francom+1.2
82-6NC STNC ST×5KillBritni Silverset Zuzanna Maciejewicz+1.1
93-6NC STWAKEServe errNC State+0.7
103-7WAKENC ST×3KillBritni Silverset Zuzanna Maciejewicz+0.8
113-8NC STNC ST×3KillBritni Silverset Eva Long+0.9
123-9NC STNC ST×3KillJordan Smithset Eva Long+0.7
134-9NC STWAKEKillLaiya Eboset Andrea Roman+0.4
144-10WAKENC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+0.5
155-10NC STWAKEServe errNC State+0.4
165-11WAKENC STServe errWake Forest+0.5
176-11NC STWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Emma Keeping+0.4
187-11WAKEWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettle+0.8
197-12WAKENC ST×6KillClara Vondranset Zuzanna Maciejewicz+0.7
207-13NC STNC ST×6Attack errLyla Stewart+0.7
217-14NC STNC ST×6AceNC Stateaced Dhru Lalaji+0.5
227-15NC STNC ST×6AceNC Stateaced Dhru Lalaji+0.3
237-16NC STNC ST×6KillClara Vondranset Eva Long+0.2
247-17NC STNC ST×6AceNC State+0.1
258-17NC STWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Ava Roddey·
268-18WAKENC STServe errWake Forest+0.1
278-19NC STNC STKillNorah Buschset Eva Long·
289-19NC STWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Ava Roddey·
299-20WAKENC ST×4Serve errWake Forest·
309-21NC STNC ST×4KillEva Longset Ava Roddey·
319-22NC STNC ST×4Attack errKelis Hawkins·
329-23NC STNC ST×4KillBritni Silverset Elaisa Villar·
3310-23NC STWAKEAttack errBritni Silver·
3410-24WAKENC STKillTalia Francomset Elaisa Villar·
3510-25NC STNC STAceNC Stateaced Mattea Saunders·
Set 3
11-0WAKEWAKEAttack errBritni Silver+0.8
21-1WAKENC STKillNorah Buschset Eva Long+0.6
32-1NC STWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Emma Keeping+0.6
42-2WAKENC STKillTalia Francomset Eva Long+0.6
52-3NC STNC STBlockedCatherine Burkeblk Talia Francom+0.8
63-3NC STWAKEKillLaiya Eboset Emma Keeping+0.6
74-3WAKEWAKEAceBecca Bellowsaced Zuzanna Maciejewicz+0.9
84-4WAKENC STAttack errBecca Bellows+0.6
95-4NC STWAKE×3Serve errNC State+0.7
106-4WAKEWAKE×3KillCatherine Burkeset Becca Bellows+1.0
117-4WAKEWAKE×3Attack errJordan Smith+1.0
127-5WAKENC STKillTalia Francomset Eva Long+0.6
137-6NC STNC STAttack errBecca Bellows+0.9
148-6NC STWAKEServe errNC State+0.8
158-7WAKENC STServe errWake Forest+0.7
168-8NC STNC STBlockedAmina Ndiayeblk Eva Long, Norah Busch+1.0
179-8NC STWAKEServe errNC State+0.8
189-9WAKENC STKillNorah Buschset Eva Long+0.7
1910-9NC STWAKEKillAmina Ndiayeset Emma Keeping+0.8
2010-10WAKENC STKillBritni Silverset Zuzanna Maciejewicz+0.7
2111-10NC STWAKEKillLaiya Eboset Emma Keeping+0.8
2211-11WAKENC STServe errWake Forest+0.8
2311-12NC STNC STKillBritni Silverset Eva Long+1.0
2412-12NC STWAKEServe errNC State+0.8
2512-13WAKENC STKillTalia Francomset Eva Long+0.8
2612-14NC STNC STKillClara Vondranset Eva Long+1.0
2713-14NC STWAKEKillCatherine Burkeset Becca Bellows+0.7
2813-15WAKENC ST×4Serve errWake Forest+0.8
2913-16NC STNC ST×4KillNorah Busch+0.9
3013-17NC STNC ST×4KillJordan Smithset Eva Long+0.7
3113-18NC STNC ST×4Attack errAmina Ndiaye+0.5
3214-18NC STWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Becca Bellows+0.3
3315-18WAKEWAKEBlockedClara Vondranblk Ryleigh Whitekettle, Kelis Hawkins+0.6
3415-19WAKENC STKillJordan Smithset Eva Long+0.5
3515-20NC STNC STKillClara Vondranset Eva Long+0.5
3616-20NC STWAKE×3BlockedClara Vondranblk Ryleigh Whitekettle, Kelis Hawkins+0.2
3717-20WAKEWAKE×3Attack errClara Vondran+0.5
3818-20WAKEWAKE×3Attack errClara Vondran+0.8
3918-21WAKENC STServe errWake Forest+0.8
4018-22NC STNC STBlockedLaiya Eboblk Britni Silver, Norah Busch+0.8
4119-22NC STWAKEServe errNC State+0.3
4219-23WAKENC STKillBritni Silverset Zuzanna Maciejewicz+0.5
4320-23NC STWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Andrea Roman+0.2
4421-23WAKEWAKEAttack errBritni Silver+0.7
4521-24WAKENC STKillEva Long+0.9
4622-24NC STWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Emma Keeping+0.4
4723-24WAKEWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Becca Bellows+1.2
4823-25WAKENC STKillTalia Francomset Eva Long+2.0

Score shown after each rally, Wake Forest first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).