Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 30, 2026Watch on ESPN+

FGCU def. North Florida 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: FGCU 78.8% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 30, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

FGCU beat visiting North Florida 3-1 (25-17, 27-25, 20-25, 25-18) on Fri, Oct 30, 2026. FGCU's Katie Gielas led with 16 kills, and Anna Marzella added 19 digs.

Data through · final Oct 30

Set1234Sets
NO FLA172525181
FGCU252720253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

FGCU won it on hitting.

The match turned twice. Numbers are FGCU's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. FGCU went in as RallyIQ's 79% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · North Florida 18–21 FGCU

    Down 18–21, North Florida scored 6 straight to lead 24–21.

    FGCU 94% → 75%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 2 · North Florida 24–21 FGCU

    Down 21–24, FGCU scored 4 straight to lead 25–24.

    FGCU 75% → 91%

FGCU above 50North Florida belowMax swing 6.7%

North FloridaFGCU

Sideout %
North Florida 57.3·FGCU 65.1
Break %
North Florida 34.9·FGCU 42.7
Hitting
North Florida .184·FGCU .306
Longest run
North Florida 6·FGCU 5

Camila Soto
2 kills inside the turning points, 11 K and .348 for the match (12 points).

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

FGCU above 50 · North Florida below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+6.7% FGCUrally 182 · set 4

Biggest swing: 6.7% to FGCU — set 2, NO FLA 24-24 FGCU. Kill by Katie Gielas (set by Eliska Vytiskova). FGCU win probability 79% → 85%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NO FLA 19.4%80.6% FGCU

North Florida wins

3-0
3.1%
3-1
6.4%
3-2
9.9%

FGCU wins

3-0
32.1%
3-1
30.4%
3-2
18.1%
NO FLA break %
38.4% vs this opp
FGCU break %
44.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Katie GielasKill+6.7%

    Kill by Katie Gielas (set by Eliska Vytiskova)

    Set 2 · NO FLA 24-24 FGCU · FGCU 79% → 85%

  2. 02
    Camila SotoKill+5.8%

    Kill by Camila Soto (set by Eliska Vytiskova)

    Set 2 · NO FLA 24-25 FGCU · FGCU 85% → 91%

  3. 03
    Camila SotoKill+5.0%

    Kill by Camila Soto

    Set 2 · NO FLA 25-27 FGCU · FGCU 91% → 96%

  4. 04

    Kill by Yarimar Francis Garay

    Set 2 · NO FLA 23-21 FGCU · NO FLA 17% → 22%

  5. 05
    Katie GielasAttack error+4.3%

    Attack error by Katie Gielas

    Set 2 · NO FLA 22-21 FGCU · NO FLA 13% → 17%

  6. 06
    Kaili DoctorKill+4.1%

    Kill by Kaili Doctor (set by Sofia Dawson)

    Set 2 · NO FLA 25-25 FGCU · NO FLA 9% → 13%

  7. 07
    Camila SotoKill+4.1%

    Kill by Camila Soto (set by Eliska Vytiskova)

    Set 2 · NO FLA 25-26 FGCU · FGCU 87% → 91%

  8. 08

    Julija Grubisic Cabo stuffed by Sofia Dawson & Haleina Bowers

    Set 4 · NO FLA 15-13 FGCU · NO FLA 17% → 21%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416847.17001211212219
411327.2961007000011
410223.3480001002111
46518.056100101439
40113-.077013140031.52.5
4018-.125402040010.52.5
4000–3111430001
34011.364000000215
3000–102000000
1000–001000000
Team totals4720147.1844659525214985
FGCUhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416431.3870031000016
414334.324112100010.515.5
411732.1250001104213
410117.52901340031.512.5
4105.200000201434
4000–23001400000
411323.3480002002112
4012-.5002721600002
4000–8111920001
4000–0021000000
Team totals6319144.30659512695114897

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

North Florida vs FGCU

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 NO FLA · FGCU 5

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 2 NO FLAFGCU 5

Set 2

25-27

Longest run 6 NO FLAFGCU 4

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 3 NO FLAFGCU 3

Set 4

18-25

Longest run 4 NO FLAFGCU 5

Bars above the line = FGCU leads, below = North Florida leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

North Florida

SlotSideout %Break %
1
44%8/18
38%5/13
2
58%7/12
11%1/9
3
58%7/12
56%9/16
4
78%7/9
30%3/10
5
70%7/10
36%4/11
6
60%6/10
40%4/10
All
59%42/71
38%26/69

FGCU

SlotSideout %Break %
1
64%9/14
30%3/10
2
62%8/13
62%13/21
3
50%7/14
22%2/9
4
88%7/8
42%5/12
5
50%6/12
22%2/9
6
75%6/8
40%4/10
All
62%43/69
41%29/71

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

182 rallies

#NO FLA-FGCUSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0FGCUNO FLAAttack errJulija Grubisic Cabo+1.4
21-1NO FLAFGCUKillMaju Hildebrandset Anna Marzella+1.3
32-1FGCUNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+1.4
42-2NO FLAFGCUKillKatie Gielasset Dinara Sabitova+1.3
53-2FGCUNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+1.5
64-2NO FLANO FLAAceNorth Floridaaced Anna Marzella+2.2
74-3NO FLAFGCU×3KillMaju Hildebrandset Dinara Sabitova+1.4
84-4FGCUFGCU×3KillCamila Sotoset Anna Marzella+2.0
94-5FGCUFGCU×3KillKatie Gielasset Eliska Vytiskova+1.9
105-5FGCUNO FLAKillYarimar Francis Garayset Sofia Dawson+1.4
115-6NO FLAFGCUServe errNorth Florida+1.4
125-7FGCUFGCUKillCamila Soto+1.8
136-7FGCUNO FLAServe errFGCU+1.3
146-8NO FLAFGCUBlockedHaleina Bowersblk Amany Kuwa+1.3
157-8FGCUNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Emma Pohlmann+1.4
168-8NO FLANO FLAAceNorth Florida+2.2
178-9NO FLAFGCUKillJulija Grubisic Caboset Anna Marzella+1.5
189-9FGCUNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+1.6
199-10NO FLAFGCU×3Attack errKaili Doctor+1.6
209-11FGCUFGCU×3Attack errHaleina Bowers+2.1
219-12FGCUFGCU×3BlockedKaili Doctorblk Abby Toeniskoetter, Maju Hildebrand+1.8
2210-12FGCUNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+1.2
2311-12NO FLANO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+2.1
2411-13NO FLAFGCU×5KillMaju Hildebrandset Dinara Sabitova+1.6
2511-14FGCUFGCU×5BlockedKaili Doctorblk Maju Hildebrand, Amany Kuwa+1.9
2611-15FGCUFGCU×5KillMaju Hildebrandset Julija Grubisic Cabo+1.6
2711-16FGCUFGCU×5KillMaju Hildebrandset Dinara Sabitova+1.2
2811-17FGCUFGCU×5Attack errSofia Dawson+0.8
2912-17FGCUNO FLAServe errFGCU+0.4
3013-17NO FLANO FLAAttack errMaju Hildebrand+0.9
3113-18NO FLAFGCUKillKatie Gielasset Dinara Sabitova+0.8
3214-18FGCUNO FLAServe errFGCU+0.6
3314-19NO FLAFGCUKillKatie Gielasset Eliska Vytiskova+0.8
3414-20FGCUFGCUAttack errDakota Spurrier+0.7
3515-20FGCUNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+0.3
3615-21NO FLAFGCU×3KillJulija Grubisic Caboset Eliska Vytiskova+0.5
3715-22FGCUFGCU×3AceFGCUaced Kaili Doctor+0.3
3815-23FGCUFGCU×3KillAbby Toeniskoetterset Eliska Vytiskova+0.1
3916-23FGCUNO FLAKillHaleina Bowersset Sofia Dawson·
40–4117-24NO FLA · FGCU
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

·
4217-25NO FLAFGCUBlockedDakota Spurrierblk Abby Toeniskoetter, Maju Hildebrand·
Set 2
10-1NO FLAFGCUKillMaju Hildebrandset Dinara Sabitova+0.9
21-1FGCUNO FLAKillYarimar Francis Garayset Sofia Dawson+1.0
31-2NO FLAFGCUKillCamila Sotoset Eliska Vytiskova+1.0
42-2FGCUNO FLAKillYarimar Francis Garayset Sofia Dawson+1.0
52-3NO FLAFGCUKillJulija Grubisic Caboset Eliska Vytiskova+1.0
63-3FGCUNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+1.1
73-4NO FLAFGCUKillAbby Toeniskoetterset Eliska Vytiskova+1.0
84-4FGCUNO FLAKillHaleina Bowersset Sofia Dawson+1.1
95-4NO FLANO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+1.6
105-5NO FLAFGCUKillMaju Hildebrandset Dinara Sabitova+1.1
115-6FGCUFGCUKillKatie Gielasset Dinara Sabitova+1.5
126-6FGCUNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+1.1
136-7NO FLAFGCU×3KillKatie Gielasset Dinara Sabitova+1.1
146-8FGCUFGCU×3BlockedKaili Doctorblk Amany Kuwa, Maju Hildebrand+1.4
156-9FGCUFGCU×3Attack errYarimar Francis Garay+1.3
167-9FGCUNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+0.9
177-10NO FLAFGCU×4KillMaju Hildebrandset Dinara Sabitova+0.9
187-11FGCUFGCU×4AceFGCUaced Emma Pohlmann+1.1
197-12FGCUFGCU×4AceFGCUaced Emma Pohlmann+0.9
207-13FGCUFGCU×4KillKatie Gielasset Eliska Vytiskova+0.7
218-13FGCUNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+0.4
229-13NO FLANO FLAAceNorth Florida+0.7
239-14NO FLAFGCUKillCamila Sotoset Eliska Vytiskova+0.6
2410-14FGCUNO FLAServe errFGCU+0.5
2511-14NO FLANO FLAKillHaleina Bowersset Sofia Dawson+1.0
2611-15NO FLAFGCU×3KillJulija Grubisic Caboset Eliska Vytiskova+0.9
2711-16FGCUFGCU×3Attack errLeah McDonald+0.9
2811-17FGCUFGCU×3KillCamila Sotoset Anna Marzella+0.6
2912-17FGCUNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+0.3
3012-18NO FLAFGCUKillAbby Toeniskoetterset Eliska Vytiskova+0.4
3112-19FGCUFGCUKillJulija Grubisic Caboset Anna Marzella+0.4
3213-19FGCUNO FLA×3KillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+0.2
3314-19NO FLANO FLA×3Attack errMaju Hildebrand+0.4
3415-19NO FLANO FLA×3BlockedMaju Hildebrandblk Sasha Bespaly, Kaili Doctor+0.6
3515-20NO FLAFGCUKillAbby Toeniskoetterset Dinara Sabitova+0.6
3616-20FGCUNO FLA×3BlockedMaju Hildebrandblk Kaili Doctor+0.4
3717-20NO FLANO FLA×3BlockedAbby Toeniskoetterblk Yarimar Francis Garay+0.9
3818-20NO FLANO FLA×3Attack errKatie Gielas+1.5
3918-21NO FLAFGCUServe errNorth Florida+1.4
4019-21FGCUNO FLA×6Serve errFGCU+1.1
4120-21NO FLANO FLA×6BlockedMaju Hildebrandblk Yarimar Francis Garay, Leah McDonald+2.3
4221-21NO FLANO FLA×6AceNorth Floridaaced Maju Hildebrand+3.3
4322-21NO FLANO FLA×6Attack errKatie Gielas+4.3
4423-21NO FLANO FLA×6KillYarimar Francis Garay+4.5
4524-21NO FLANO FLA×6Attack errKatie Gielas+3.5
4624-22NO FLAFGCU×4Attack errKaili Doctor+1.0
4724-23FGCUFGCU×4KillCamila Sotoset Eliska Vytiskova+3.0
4824-24FGCUFGCU×4KillKatie Gielasset Eliska Vytiskova+6.7
4924-25FGCUFGCU×4KillCamila Sotoset Eliska Vytiskova+5.8
5025-25FGCUNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+4.1
5125-26NO FLAFGCUKillCamila Sotoset Eliska Vytiskova+4.1
5225-27FGCUFGCUKillCamila Soto+5.0
Set 3
11-0FGCUNO FLABlockedMaju Hildebrandblk Yarimar Francis Garay, Leah McDonald+0.5
21-1NO FLAFGCUKillJulija Grubisic Caboset Anna Marzella+0.5
31-2FGCUFGCUAttack errYarimar Francis Garay+0.7
42-2FGCUNO FLAKillYarimar Francis Garayset Sofia Dawson+0.5
53-2NO FLANO FLABad setDinara Sabitova+0.8
63-3NO FLAFGCUServe errNorth Florida+0.5
74-3FGCUNO FLAServe errFGCU+0.6
84-4NO FLAFGCUKillKatie Gielasset Dinara Sabitova+0.6
95-4FGCUNO FLAKillHaleina Bowersset Sofia Dawson+0.6
105-5NO FLAFGCUKillAmany Kuwaset Eliska Vytiskova+0.6
116-5FGCUNO FLAServe errFGCU+0.6
126-6NO FLAFGCUServe errNorth Florida+0.6
136-7FGCUFGCUKillAbby Toeniskoetterset Eliska Vytiskova+0.8
147-7FGCUNO FLAAttack errCamila Soto+0.6
157-8NO FLAFGCUKillJulija Grubisic Caboset Eliska Vytiskova+0.6
168-8FGCUNO FLAKillSasha Bespalyset Sofia Dawson+0.6
178-9NO FLAFGCUKillAbby Toeniskoetterset Dinara Sabitova+0.6
189-9FGCUNO FLAServe errFGCU+0.6
1910-9NO FLANO FLABlockedKatie Gielasblk Haleina Bowers, Sasha Bespaly+1.0
2010-10NO FLAFGCUKillAbby Toeniskoetterset Dinara Sabitova+0.7
2111-10FGCUNO FLA×3Attack errSasha Bespaly+0.7
2212-10NO FLANO FLA×3KillDakota Spurrierset Emma Pohlmann+1.1
2313-10NO FLANO FLA×3Attack errMaju Hildebrand+1.1
2413-11NO FLAFGCUServe errNorth Florida+0.7
2514-11FGCUNO FLAKillHaleina Bowersset Sofia Dawson+0.8
2614-12NO FLAFGCUKillKatie Gielasset Eliska Vytiskova+0.7
2715-12FGCUNO FLA×3Serve errFGCU+0.9
2816-12NO FLANO FLA×3Attack errEliska Vytiskova+1.1
2917-12NO FLANO FLA×3KillKaili Doctorset Haydin Froehlich+1.0
3017-13NO FLAFGCUServe errNorth Florida+0.5
3118-13FGCUNO FLABlockedCamila Sotoblk Yarimar Francis Garay, Kaili Doctor+0.7
3218-14NO FLAFGCUKillJulija Grubisic Caboset Eliska Vytiskova+0.5
3319-14FGCUNO FLAKillSasha Bespalyset Sofia Dawson+0.7
3419-15NO FLAFGCU×3KillJulija Grubisic Caboset Anna Marzella+0.4
3519-16FGCUFGCU×3Attack errYarimar Francis Garay+0.8
3619-17FGCUFGCU×3KillKatie Gielasset Dinara Sabitova+1.1
3720-17FGCUNO FLA×3KillYarimar Francis Garayset Sofia Dawson+1.1
3821-17NO FLANO FLA×3KillHaleina Bowersset Sofia Dawson+1.2
3922-17NO FLANO FLA×3AceNorth Floridaaced Anna Marzella+0.8
4022-18NO FLAFGCUKillKatie Gielasset Dinara Sabitova+0.3
4123-18FGCUNO FLAKillSasha Bespalyset Sofia Dawson+0.6
4223-19NO FLAFGCUServe errNorth Florida+0.2
4324-19FGCUNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+0.4
4424-20NO FLAFGCUKillCamila Sotoset Eliska Vytiskova+0.1
4525-20FGCUNO FLAServe errFGCU+0.3
Set 4
10-1NO FLAFGCUKillMaju Hildebrandset Dinara Sabitova+1.5
21-1FGCUNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+1.6
31-2NO FLAFGCUKillKatie Gielasset Eliska Vytiskova+1.5
41-3FGCUFGCUBlockedYarimar Francis Garayblk Amany Kuwa, Julija Grubisic Cabo+2.0
52-3FGCUNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+1.5
63-3NO FLANO FLAAttack errCamila Soto+2.3
73-4NO FLAFGCUKillJulija Grubisic Caboset Eliska Vytiskova+1.6
84-4FGCUNO FLAServe errFGCU+1.7
94-5NO FLAFGCUKillAbby Toeniskoetterset Eliska Vytiskova+1.6
105-5FGCUNO FLAKillHaleina Bowersset Sofia Dawson+1.8
116-5NO FLANO FLAKillHaleina Bowersset Sofia Dawson+2.7
126-6NO FLAFGCUKillJulija Grubisic Caboset Dinara Sabitova+1.8
137-6FGCUNO FLAServe errFGCU+2.0
147-7NO FLAFGCUAttack errYarimar Francis Garay+1.9
158-7FGCUNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Emma Pohlmann+2.1
168-8NO FLAFGCUKillKatie Gielasset Dinara Sabitova+1.9
179-8FGCUNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Dakota Spurrier+2.2
189-9NO FLAFGCUServe errNorth Florida+2.0
1910-9FGCUNO FLA×4KillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+2.2
2011-9NO FLANO FLA×4Attack errJulija Grubisic Cabo+3.3
2112-9NO FLANO FLA×4KillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+3.3
2213-9NO FLANO FLA×4KillHaleina Bowersset Sofia Dawson+3.2
2313-10NO FLAFGCU×4KillJulija Grubisic Caboset Eliska Vytiskova+1.9
2413-11FGCUFGCU×4KillAbby Toeniskoetterset Eliska Vytiskova+3.0
2513-12FGCUFGCU×4KillAbby Toeniskoetterset Sofia Dawson+3.2
2613-13FGCUFGCU×4BlockedDakota Spurrierblk Abby Toeniskoetter+3.3
2714-13FGCUNO FLAKillSasha Bespalyset Sofia Dawson+2.6
2815-13NO FLANO FLABlockedJulija Grubisic Caboblk Sofia Dawson, Haleina Bowers+3.9
2915-14NO FLAFGCUKillCamila Sotoset Eliska Vytiskova+2.5
3015-15FGCUFGCUKillJulija Grubisic Caboset Anna Marzella+3.6
3116-15FGCUNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+2.9
3216-16NO FLAFGCU×3KillJulija Grubisic Caboset Dinara Sabitova+2.7
3316-17FGCUFGCU×3KillMaju Hildebrandset Dinara Sabitova+3.8
3416-18FGCUFGCU×3AceFGCUaced Emma Pohlmann+3.5
3517-18FGCUNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+2.4
3617-19NO FLAFGCUKillMaju Hildebrandset Dinara Sabitova+2.6
3717-20FGCUFGCUAceFGCUaced Kaili Doctor+3.0
3818-20FGCUNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+1.7
3918-21NO FLAFGCU×5KillKatie Gielasset Dinara Sabitova+2.2
4018-22FGCUFGCU×5BlockedKaili Doctorblk Camila Soto, Amany Kuwa+2.1
4118-23FGCUFGCU×5KillKatie Gielasset Eliska Vytiskova+1.1
4218-24FGCUFGCU×5Attack errKaili Doctor+0.4
4318-25FGCUFGCU×5Attack errKaili Doctor+0.1

Score shown after each rally, North Florida first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).