FDU vs Central Conn. State Volleyball: FDU Wins 3-0 (Oct 9)

FinalFri, Oct 9, 2026

3:0

RallyIQ pre-match: FDU 57.5% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 9, 4:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

FDU won at Central Conn. St. 3-0 (25-21, 26-24, 25-16) on Fri, Oct 9, 2026. FDU's Mila Samardzija led with 14 kills, and Madeline Joyce added 12 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 9:20 PM CT · final Oct 9

Set	1	2	3	Sets
FDU	25	26	25	3
C CONN	21	24	16	0

Match story · written from the play-by-play

6 of the last 8 rallies went to FDU, closing out Central Conn. St.

The match turned twice; each line shows FDU's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. FDU went in as RallyIQ's 58% pick.

Turning point 1: Set 1 · FDU 18–18 Central Conn. St.
From 18–18, FDU scored 5 straight to lead 23–18.
FDU 58% → 74%
Turning point 2: Set 2 · FDU 23–23 Central Conn. St.
FDU won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 26–24 and lead 2–0.
FDU 75% → 90%

Central Conn. St. above 50FDU belowMax swing 8.7%

FDUCentral Conn. St.

Sideout %: FDU 53.2·Central Conn. St. 42.7
Break %: FDU 57.3·Central Conn. St. 46.8
Hitting: FDU .131·Central Conn. St. .009
Longest run: FDU 8·Central Conn. St. 8

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Central Conn. St. above 50 · FDU below

Biggest swing: 8.7% to FDU — set 2, FDU 26-24 C CONN. Attack error by Breanna Ginley. C CONN win probability 18% → 10%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

FDU 58.1%41.9% C CONN

FDU wins

3-0

16.2%

3-1

22.1%

3-2

19.8%

Central Conn. St. wins

3-0

9.4%

3-1

15.4%

3-2

17.1%

FDU break %: 44.9% vs this opp
C CONN break %: 43.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Breanna GinleyAttack error+8.7%
Attack error by Breanna Ginley
Set 2 · FDU 26-24 C CONN · FDU 82% → 90%
02
Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez SanchezKill+7.0%
Kill by Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez (set by Isabella Scarfone)
Set 2 · FDU 24-23 C CONN · FDU 75% → 82%
03
Danielle CaligiuriKill+7.0%
Kill by Danielle Caligiuri
Set 2 · FDU 24-24 C CONN · C CONN 18% → 25%
04
Central Conn. St.Service error+7.0%
Central Conn. St. service error
Set 2 · FDU 25-24 C CONN · FDU 75% → 82%
05
Central Conn. St.Ace+6.8%
Central Conn. St. ace on Ava DeGuzman
Set 2 · FDU 23-23 C CONN · C CONN 19% → 25%
06
FDUAce+4.5%
FDU ace on Olivia Keckler
Set 1 · FDU 20-18 C CONN · FDU 61% → 66%
07
Madison FulgencioKill+4.1%
Kill by Madison Fulgencio (set by Annabelle Denomme)
Set 2 · FDU 23-22 C CONN · C CONN 15% → 19%
08
Angela Marchetto&Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez SanchezBlock+3.8%
Breanna Ginley stuffed by Angela Marchetto & Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez
Set 1 · FDU 21-18 C CONN · FDU 66% → 70%

Box score

Official NCAA box

FDUaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
14Mila SamardzijaOH	3	14	5	37	.243	0	3	2	7	3	2	1	18
16Angela MarchettoMB	3	4	0	8	.500	0	0	0	0	0	9	4.5	8.5
17Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez SanchezOH	3	5	5	28	.000	0	0	0	5	1	5	2.5	7.5
1Isabella ScarfoneS	3	1	1	2	.000	26	2	1	9	0	3	1.5	4.5
12Alessia ZampieriMB	3	3	1	6	.333	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	4
7Ava DeGuzmanOH	3	3	6	16	-.188	0	0	1	8	2	0	0	3
5Kayla GreenL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
23Madeline JoyceL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	1	2	12	1	0	0	1
8Katarina TrutinaOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
4Nina JasieckaOH	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	1.5
Team totals		31	18	99	.131	29	7	8	43	7	22	11	76

Central Conn. St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
5Olivia KecklerOPP	3	10	8	40	.050	0	4	2	3	3	0	1	0.5	14.5
11Cullen WinterMB	3	5	4	19	.053	1	1	2	4	0	1	4	3	9
9Hanley SchmidtOH	3	5	9	26	-.154	0	0	0	3	0	0	4	2	7
2Breanna GinleyMB	3	2	4	12	-.167	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	3	5
21Isabella Aviles	3	0	0	1	.000	12	0	2	10	0	0	0	0	0
6Meg BerklandL/DS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	2	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	0
15Madison FulgencioOH	3	4	1	7	.429	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	4
4Gabriella BurdierDS	3	1	0	1	1.000	1	0	1	8	1	0	0	0	1
1Annabelle DenommeL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	1	3	11	1	0	0	0	1
17Danielle CaligiuriS	1	1	0	1	1.000	3	1	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
7Aubrey StitcherOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		28	27	108	.009	24	7	10	46	7	3	12	9	61

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

FDU vs Central Conn. St.

Season series · FDU leads 2-0

Fri, Oct 9, 2026FDU at Central Conn. St. · FDU won 3-0This match
Sat, Oct 10, 2026FDU at Central Conn. St. · FDU won 3-0Result →

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 8 FDU · C CONN 8

Set 1

25-21

Longest run 5 FDUC CONN 4

Set 2

26-24

Longest run 8 FDUC CONN 8

Set 3

25-16

Longest run 8 FDUC CONN 5

Bars above the line = Central Conn. St. leads, below = FDU leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

FDU

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	63%5/8	67%10/15
2	50%4/8	69%9/13
3	50%3/6	57%4/7
4	43%3/7	25%1/4
5	100%3/3	40%2/5
6	60%3/5	50%3/6
All	57%21/37	58%29/50

Central Conn. St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	33%5/15	40%2/5
2	31%4/13	38%3/8
3	43%3/7	50%4/8
4	75%3/4	50%3/6
5	60%3/5	57%4/7
6	50%3/6	0%0/3
All	42%21/50	43%16/37

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

137 rallies

#	FDU-C CONN	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	FDU	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+2.3
2	1-1	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Annabelle Denomme	+1.9
3	2-1	C CONN	FDU	Serve err	Central Conn. St.		+1.9
4	3-1	FDU	FDU	Attack err	Olivia Keckler		+2.4
5	3-2	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Annabelle Denomme	+1.8
6	4-2	C CONN	FDU	Attack err	Cullen Winter		+1.9
7	5-2	FDU	FDU	Ace	FDU	aced Meg Berkland	+2.3
8	5-3	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Isabella Aviles	+1.7
9	6-3	C CONN	FDU	Serve err	Central Conn. St.		+1.8
10	7-3	FDU	FDU	Kill	Isabella Scarfone	set Madeline Joyce	+2.1
11	7-4	FDU	C CONN	Attack err	Mila Samardzija		+1.5
12	7-5	C CONN	C CONN	Ace	Central Conn. St.	aced Mila Samardzija	+2.2
13	8-5	C CONN	FDU×3	Kill	Ava DeGuzman	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.9
14	9-5	FDU	FDU×3	Blocked	Madison Fulgencio	blk Isabella Scarfone, Alessia Zampieri	+2.2
15	10-5	FDU	FDU×3	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.9
16	10-6	FDU	C CONN	Serve err	FDU		+1.3
17	11-6	C CONN	FDU	Serve err	Central Conn. St.		+1.5
18	11-7	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Isabella Aviles	+1.3
19	11-8	C CONN	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Isabella Aviles	+2.0
20	12-8	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.8
21	13-8	FDU	FDU	Attack err	Hanley Schmidt		+2.0
22	13-9	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Isabella Aviles	+1.3
23	13-10	C CONN	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Isabella Aviles	+2.1
24	14-10	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.9
25	14-11	FDU	C CONN	Serve err	FDU		+1.6
26	15-11	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+2.0
27	15-12	FDU	C CONN×4	Serve err	FDU		+1.7
28	15-13	C CONN	C CONN×4	Ace	Central Conn. St.	aced Mila Samardzija	+2.6
29	15-14	C CONN	C CONN×4	Ace	Central Conn. St.	aced Mila Samardzija	+3.2
30	15-15	C CONN	C CONN×4	Ace	Central Conn. St.	aced Madeline Joyce	+3.6
31	16-15	C CONN	FDU	Serve err	Central Conn. St.		+3.0
32	16-16	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Madison Fulgencio	set Isabella Aviles	+3.0
33	17-16	C CONN	FDU	Serve err	Central Conn. St.		+3.1
34	17-17	FDU	C CONN	Serve err	FDU		+3.2
35	18-17	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+3.3
36	18-18	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Madison Fulgencio	set Isabella Aviles	+3.4
37	19-18	C CONN	FDU×5	Blocked	Hanley Schmidt	blk Mila Samardzija, Angela Marchetto	+3.6
38	20-18	FDU	FDU×5	Ace	FDU	aced Olivia Keckler	+4.5
39	21-18	FDU	FDU×5	Blocked	Breanna Ginley	blk Angela Marchetto, Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	+3.8
40	22-18	FDU	FDU×5	Blocked	Olivia Keckler	blk Mila Samardzija, Angela Marchetto	+2.8
41	23-18	FDU	FDU×5	Ace	FDU	aced Annabelle Denomme	+1.6
42	23-19	FDU	C CONN×3	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Meg Berkland	+0.5
43	23-20	C CONN	C CONN×3	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Isabella Aviles	+1.3
44	23-21	C CONN	C CONN×3	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Isabella Scarfone	+2.5
45	24-21	C CONN	FDU	Blocked	Hanley Schmidt	blk Angela Marchetto, Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	+3.4
46	25-21	FDU	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.7
Set 2
1	0-1	C CONN	C CONN	Blocked	Mila Samardzija	blk Hanley Schmidt, Breanna Ginley	+2.2
2	1-1	C CONN	FDU×3	Kill	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.7
3	2-1	FDU	FDU×3	Kill	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	set Isabella Scarfone	+2.2
4	3-1	FDU	FDU×3	Attack err	Hanley Schmidt		+2.2
5	3-2	FDU	C CONN	Attack err	Ava DeGuzman		+1.7
6	4-2	C CONN	FDU×8	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.7
7	5-2	FDU	FDU×8	Kill	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	set Madeline Joyce	+2.1
8	6-2	FDU	FDU×8	Attack err	Hanley Schmidt		+2.0
9	7-2	FDU	FDU×8	Attack err	Cullen Winter		+1.7
10	8-2	FDU	FDU×8	Attack err	Olivia Keckler		+1.5
11	9-2	FDU	FDU×8	Attack err	Hanley Schmidt		+1.2
12	10-2	FDU	FDU×8	Blocked	Cullen Winter	blk Angela Marchetto, Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	+1.0
13	11-2	FDU	FDU×8	Attack err	Olivia Keckler		+0.7
14–15	12-3		FDU · C CONN	NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+0.1
16	12-4	FDU	C CONN	Blocked	Ava DeGuzman	blk Cullen Winter, Danielle Caligiuri	+0.4
17	13-4	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.5
18	13-5	FDU	C CONN	Serve err	FDU		+0.4
19	14-5	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Alessia Zampieri	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.5
20	14-6	FDU	C CONN	Attack err	Isabella Scarfone		+0.3
21	15-6	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Ava DeGuzman	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.5
22	15-7	FDU	C CONN×3	Attack err	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez		+0.3
23	15-8	C CONN	C CONN×3	Attack err	Alessia Zampieri		+0.6
24	15-9	C CONN	C CONN×3	Ace	Central Conn. St.	aced Ava DeGuzman	+0.8
25	16-9	C CONN	FDU×3	Kill	Alessia Zampieri	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.9
26	17-9	FDU	FDU×3	Blocked	Breanna Ginley	blk Isabella Scarfone, Angela Marchetto	+0.7
27	18-9	FDU	FDU×3	Blocked	Hanley Schmidt	blk Angela Marchetto, Isabella Scarfone	+0.5
28	18-10	FDU	C CONN	Serve err	FDU		+0.2
29	19-10	C CONN	FDU×3	Kill	Angela Marchetto	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.3
30	20-10	FDU	FDU×3	Attack err	Meg Berkland		+0.2
31	21-10	FDU	FDU×3	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.1
32	21-11	FDU	C CONN×8	Blocked	Mila Samardzija	blk Breanna Ginley, Hanley Schmidt	·
33	21-12	C CONN	C CONN×8	Blocked	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	blk Hanley Schmidt, Cullen Winter	+0.1
34	21-13	C CONN	C CONN×8	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Annabelle Denomme	+0.1
35	21-14	C CONN	C CONN×8	Ace	Central Conn. St.	aced Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	+0.2
36	21-15	C CONN	C CONN×8	Blocked	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	blk Hanley Schmidt, Cullen Winter	+0.4
37	21-16	C CONN	C CONN×8	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Danielle Caligiuri	+0.6
38	21-17	C CONN	C CONN×8	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Annabelle Denomme	+1.1
39	21-18	C CONN	C CONN×8	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Danielle Caligiuri	+1.7
40	22-18	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+2.0
41	22-19	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Danielle Caligiuri	+1.2
42	22-20	C CONN	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Meg Berkland	+2.6
43	23-20	C CONN	FDU	Serve err	Central Conn. St.		+3.1
44	23-21	FDU	C CONN×3	Blocked	Mila Samardzija	blk Cullen Winter	+1.8
45	23-22	C CONN	C CONN×3	Kill	Madison Fulgencio	set Annabelle Denomme	+4.1
46	23-23	C CONN	C CONN×3	Ace	Central Conn. St.	aced Ava DeGuzman	+6.8
47	24-23	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	set Isabella Scarfone	+7.0
48	24-24	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Danielle Caligiuri		+7.0
49	25-24	C CONN	FDU	Serve err	Central Conn. St.		+7.0
50	26-24	FDU	FDU	Attack err	Breanna Ginley		+8.7
Set 3
1	1-0	FDU	FDU×4	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.3
2	2-0	FDU	FDU×4	Attack err	Breanna Ginley		+1.3
3	3-0	FDU	FDU×4	Attack err	Olivia Keckler		+1.3
4	4-0	FDU	FDU×4	Blocked	Olivia Keckler	blk Angela Marchetto, Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	+1.2
5	4-1	FDU	C CONN	Serve err	FDU		+0.8
6	5-1	C CONN	FDU×8	Attack err	Hanley Schmidt		+0.9
7	6-1	FDU	FDU×8	Kill	Angela Marchetto	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.1
8	7-1	FDU	FDU×8	Kill	Angela Marchetto	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.9
9	8-1	FDU	FDU×8	Ace	FDU	aced Olivia Keckler	+0.8
10	9-1	FDU	FDU×8	Attack err	Cullen Winter		+0.6
11	10-1	FDU	FDU×8	Ace	FDU	aced Olivia Keckler	+0.5
12	11-1	FDU	FDU×8	Kill	Angela Marchetto		+0.3
13	12-1	FDU	FDU×8	Blocked	Olivia Keckler	blk Angela Marchetto, Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	+0.2
14	12-2	FDU	C CONN×5	Blocked	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	blk Olivia Keckler, Cullen Winter	+0.1
15	12-3	C CONN	C CONN×5	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Cullen Winter	+0.2
16	12-4	C CONN	C CONN×5	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.3
17	12-5	C CONN	C CONN×5	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Isabella Aviles	+0.4
18	12-6	C CONN	C CONN×5	Kill	Cullen Winter		+0.6
19	13-6	C CONN	FDU	Serve err	Central Conn. St.		+0.6
20	13-7	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Gabriella Burdier	+0.4
21	14-7	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Ava DeGuzman	set Madeline Joyce	+0.6
22	14-8	FDU	C CONN×4	Kill	Gabriella Burdier	set Isabella Aviles	+0.4
23	14-9	C CONN	C CONN×4	Blocked	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	blk Breanna Ginley	+0.7
24	14-10	C CONN	C CONN×4	Attack err	Ava DeGuzman		+0.9
25	14-11	C CONN	C CONN×4	Attack err	Ava DeGuzman		+1.2
26	15-11	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Alessia Zampieri	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.1
27	15-12	FDU	C CONN	Blocked	Mila Samardzija	blk Breanna Ginley	+0.9
28	16-12	C CONN	FDU×4	Serve err	Central Conn. St.		+1.1
29	17-12	FDU	FDU×4	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.2
30	18-12	FDU	FDU×4	Attack err	Hanley Schmidt		+0.9
31	19-12	FDU	FDU×4	Ace	FDU	aced Gabriella Burdier	+0.6
32	19-13	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Madison Fulgencio	set Isabella Aviles	+0.3
33	19-14	C CONN	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Isabella Aviles	+0.5
34	20-14	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.6
35	20-15	FDU	C CONN	Attack err	Ava DeGuzman		+0.4
36	21-15	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Nina Jasiecka	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.6
37	21-16	FDU	C CONN	Attack err	Ava DeGuzman		+0.3
38	22-16	C CONN	FDU×4	Serve err	Central Conn. St.		+0.5
39	23-16	FDU	FDU×4	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.3
40	24-16	FDU	FDU×4	Blocked	Olivia Keckler	blk Nina Jasiecka, Alessia Zampieri	+0.1
41	25-16	FDU	FDU×4	Bad set	Isabella Aviles		·

Score shown after each rally, FDU first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

FDU def. Central Conn. St. 3–0

6 of the last 8 rallies went to FDU, closing out Central Conn. St.