FDU vs Central Conn. State Volleyball: FDU Wins 3-0 (Oct 10)

FinalSat, Oct 10, 2026

3:0

RallyIQ pre-match: FDU 61.9% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 10, 3:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

FDU won at Central Conn. St. 3-0 (25-19, 25-17, 26-24) on Sat, Oct 10, 2026. FDU's Nina Jasiecka and Mila Samardzija led with 12 kills each, and Madeline Joyce added 24 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 9:15 PM CT · final Oct 10

Set	1	2	3	Sets
FDU	25	25	26	3
C CONN	19	17	24	0

Match story · written from the play-by-play

FDU won every phase. No turning point, just a gap.

No single rally moved win probability more than 4.9 points. Central Conn. St. peaked at 43% in Set 1. These are the stats that built the gap. FDU went in as RallyIQ's 62% pick.

FDUCentral Conn. St.

Break %+14.2 pts
45.331.1
On serve: 34/75 against 19/61 (Central Conn. St. sideout 54.7%).
Hitting+.137
.302.165
43 kills, 11 errors vs 33 kills, 13 errors.

Central Conn. St. above 50FDU belowMax swing 4.9%

FDUCentral Conn. St.

Aces: FDU 7·Central Conn. St. 6
Serve err: FDU 8·Central Conn. St. 8
Blocks: FDU 9·Central Conn. St. 63 BS · 12 BA vs 2 BS · 8 BA
Digs: FDU 57·Central Conn. St. 49

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Central Conn. St. above 50 · FDU below

Biggest swing: 4.9% to Central Conn. St. — set 3, FDU 24-24 C CONN. Kill by Olivia Keckler (set by Isabella Aviles). C CONN win probability 4% → 9%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

FDU 58.1%41.9% C CONN

FDU wins

3-0

16.2%

3-1

22.1%

3-2

19.8%

Central Conn. St. wins

3-0

9.4%

3-1

15.4%

3-2

17.1%

FDU break %: 44.9% vs this opp
C CONN break %: 43.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Olivia KecklerKill+4.9%
Kill by Olivia Keckler (set by Isabella Aviles)
Set 3 · FDU 24-24 C CONN · C CONN 4% → 9%
02
Alessia ZampieriBlock+4.7%
Hanley Schmidt stuffed by Alessia Zampieri
Set 3 · FDU 26-24 C CONN · FDU 95% → 100%
03
Ixchel kiahuitl Lopez sanchezKill+3.9%
Kill by Ixchel kiahuitl Lopez sanchez (set by Nina Jasiecka)
Set 3 · FDU 25-24 C CONN · FDU 91% → 95%
04
Nina JasieckaKill+3.6%
Kill by Nina Jasiecka (set by Isabella Scarfone)
Set 3 · FDU 24-22 C CONN · FDU 94% → 98%
05
Ixchel kiahuitl Lopez sanchezAttack error+3.2%
Attack error by Ixchel kiahuitl Lopez sanchez
Set 3 · FDU 22-22 C CONN · C CONN 5% → 9%
06
Breanna GinleyAttack error+3.1%
Attack error by Breanna Ginley
Set 3 · FDU 23-22 C CONN · FDU 91% → 94%
07
Central Conn. St.Ace+2.6%
Central Conn. St. ace on Mila Samardzija
Set 1 · FDU 4-6 C CONN · C CONN 40% → 43%
08
Mila SamardzijaKill+2.6%
Kill by Mila Samardzija (set by Isabella Scarfone)
Set 1 · FDU 7-6 C CONN · FDU 62% → 64%

Box score

Official NCAA box

FDUaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
4Nina JasieckaOH	3	12	3	25	.360	1	2	1	2	1	0	3	1.5	15.5
14Mila SamardzijaOH	3	12	4	26	.308	0	1	2	7	2	0	1	0.5	13.5
16Angela MarchettoMB	3	6	1	9	.556	0	0	0	3	0	2	4	4	10
12Alessia ZampieriMB	3	5	1	10	.400	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	2	7
17Ixchel kiahuitl Lopez sanchezOH	3	5	2	26	.115	2	1	1	12	1	0	1	0.5	6.5
1Isabella ScarfoneS	3	2	0	6	.333	31	0	3	6	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
5Kayla GreenL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
23Madeline JoyceL/DS	3	1	0	4	.250	4	0	1	24	0	0	0	0	1
3Agnes ShakirovaOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9Ashlyn GualtieriOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7Ava DeguzmanOH	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
19Brooke Kamelchuk—	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21Jelena JevticL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8Katarina TrutinaOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15Kaylie JensenMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Nihal KocakaraOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Nora MargineanS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11Regan TannerS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Sirma BayrakciS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13Szonja CsabaiMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	11	106	.302	40	7	8	57	6	3	12	9	76

Central Conn. St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
5Olivia KecklerOPP	3	9	5	43	.093	0	3	0	9	1	0	2	1	13
9Hanley SchmidtOH	3	11	3	18	.444	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	0.5	11.5
2Breanna GinleyMB	3	7	2	21	.238	0	1	2	0	0	1	3	2.5	10.5
21Isabella Aviles—	3	1	0	4	.250	28	2	2	12	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
11Cullen WinterMB	3	1	1	9	.000	0	0	0	2	0	1	1	1.5	2.5
6Meg BerklandL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	0	0
15Madison FulgencioOH	3	4	2	23	.087	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	4
4Gabriella BurdierDS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	0	2	5	1	0	0	0	0
18Adele MacerMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1Annabelle DenommeL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	11	2	0	0	0	0
7Aubrey StitcherOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17Danielle CaligiuriS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12Valeria TorresMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19Victoria SanabriaOPP	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		33	13	121	.165	31	6	8	49	7	2	8	6	60

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

FDU vs Central Conn. St.

Season series · FDU leads 2-0

Fri, Oct 9, 2026FDU at Central Conn. St. · FDU won 3-0Result →
Sat, Oct 10, 2026FDU at Central Conn. St. · FDU won 3-0This match

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 FDU · C CONN 5

Set 1

25-19

Longest run 4 FDUC CONN 3

Set 2

25-17

Longest run 6 FDUC CONN 2

Set 3

26-24

Longest run 5 FDUC CONN 5

Bars above the line = Central Conn. St. leads, below = FDU leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

FDU

No clean sets to split.

Central Conn. St.

No clean sets to split.

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (0 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

136 rallies

#	FDU-C CONN	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	FDU	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Madeline Joyce	+2.2
2	1-1	FDU	C CONN×3	Attack err	Nina Jasiecka	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.8
3	1-2	C CONN	C CONN×3	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Isabella Aviles	+2.4
4	1-3	C CONN	C CONN×3	Blocked	Mila Samardzija	blk Breanna Ginley, Hanley Schmidt	+2.4
5	2-3	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Nina Jasiecka	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.9
6	3-3		FDU	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+2.4
7	3-4	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Isabella Aviles	+2.0
8	4-4	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Angela Marchetto	set Isabella Scarfone	+2.0
9	4-5	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Isabella Aviles	+2.1
10	4-6	C CONN	C CONN	Ace	Central Conn. St.	aced Mila Samardzija	+2.6
11	5-6	C CONN	FDU×4	Kill	Ixchel kiahuitl Lopez sanchez	set Isabella Scarfone	+2.0
12	6-6	FDU	FDU×4	Ace	FDU	aced Annabelle Denomme	+2.6
13	7-6	FDU	FDU×4	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+2.6
14	8-6	FDU	FDU×4	Ace	FDU		+2.5
15	8-7	FDU	C CONN	Serve err	FDU		+2.0
16	9-7	C CONN	FDU×3	Kill	Isabella Scarfone	set Ixchel kiahuitl Lopez sanchez	+2.1
17	10-7	FDU	FDU×3	Kill	Alessia Zampieri	set Isabella Scarfone	+2.4
18	11-7	FDU	FDU×3	Ace	FDU	aced Annabelle Denomme	+2.2
19	11-8	FDU	C CONN	Bad set	Isabella Scarfone		+1.5
20	12-8	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Ava Deguzman	+1.8
21	13-8	FDU	FDU	Kill	Jelena Jevtic	set Ava Deguzman	+1.9
22	13-9	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Isabella Aviles	+1.3
23	14-9	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.5
24	14-10	FDU	C CONN	Serve err	FDU		+1.2
25	14-11	C CONN	C CONN	Kill	Gabriella Burdier		+2.0
26	15-11	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Madeline Joyce	+1.9
27	15-12	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Isabella Aviles	+1.6
28	16-12	C CONN	FDU×3	Serve err	Central Conn. St.		+1.9
29	17-12	FDU	FDU×3	Kill	Isabella Scarfone	set Madeline Joyce	+1.9
30	18-12	FDU	FDU×3	Kill	Nina Jasiecka	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.4
31	18-13	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Isabella Aviles	+0.8
32	19-13	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Ixchel kiahuitl Lopez sanchez	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.1
33	19-14	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Isabella Aviles	+0.7
34	19-15	C CONN	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Isabella Aviles	+1.3
35	20-15	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Ixchel kiahuitl Lopez sanchez	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.5
36	21-15	FDU	FDU	Blocked	Olivia Keckler	blk Mila Samardzija, Alessia Zampieri	+1.2
37	21-16	FDU	C CONN	Blocked	Alessia Zampieri	blk Cullen Winter	+0.5
38	22-16	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Ixchel kiahuitl Lopez sanchez		+0.8
39	22-17	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Isabella Aviles	+0.4
40	23-17	C CONN	FDU	Attack err	Hanley Schmidt	set Gabriella Burdier	+0.7
41	23-18	FDU	C CONN	Serve err	FDU		+0.3
42	24-18	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.5
43	24-19	FDU	C CONN	Serve err	FDU		+0.1
44	25-19	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Nina Jasiecka	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.3
Set 2
1	1-0	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Nina Jasiecka	set Ixchel kiahuitl Lopez sanchez	+1.6
2	1-1	FDU	C CONN	Serve err	FDU		+1.6
3	1-2	C CONN	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Isabella Aviles	+2.1
4	2-2	C CONN	FDU	Serve err	Central Conn. St.		+1.7
5	2-3	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Isabella Aviles	+1.8
6	2-4	C CONN	C CONN	Blocked	Angela Marchetto	blk Breanna Ginley, Isabella Aviles	+2.2
7	3-4	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Nina Jasiecka	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.7
8	3-5	FDU	C CONN	Serve err	FDU		+1.8
9	4-5	C CONN	FDU×3	Kill	Nina Jasiecka	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.7
10	5-5	FDU	FDU×3	Blocked	Hanley Schmidt	blk Isabella Scarfone, Alessia Zampieri	+2.2
11	6-5	FDU	FDU×3	Attack err	Breanna Ginley		+2.2
12	6-6	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Isabella Aviles	+1.8
13	6-7	C CONN	C CONN	Ace	Central Conn. St.	aced Nina Jasiecka	+2.4
14	7-7	C CONN	FDU	Serve err	Central Conn. St.		+1.9
15	8-7	FDU	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija		+2.4
16	8-8	FDU	C CONN	Serve err	FDU		+1.9
17	8-9	C CONN	C CONN	Attack err	Mila Samardzija		+2.5
18	9-9	C CONN	FDU×6	Serve err	Central Conn. St.		+2.0
19	10-9	FDU	FDU×6	Kill	Angela Marchetto		+2.5
20	11-9		FDU	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+2.4
21	12-9	FDU	FDU×6	Blocked	Cullen Winter	blk Angela Marchetto	+2.3
22	13-9		FDU	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+2.0
23	14-9	FDU	FDU×6	Ace	FDU		+1.7
24	14-10	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Madison Fulgencio	set Isabella Aviles	+1.1
25	15-10	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Angela Marchetto	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.4
26	16-10	FDU	FDU	Blocked	Olivia Keckler	blk Nina Jasiecka, Angela Marchetto	+1.3
27	16-11	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Madison Fulgencio	set Isabella Aviles	+0.8
28	17-11	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Ixchel kiahuitl Lopez sanchez	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.0
29	17-12	FDU	C CONN	Serve err	FDU		+0.7
30	17-13	C CONN	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Isabella Aviles	+1.3
31	18-13	C CONN	FDU×3	Kill	Angela Marchetto	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.4
32	19-13	FDU	FDU×3	Kill	Nina Jasiecka	set Madeline Joyce	+1.2
33	20-13	FDU	FDU×3	Kill	Nina Jasiecka	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.8
34	20-14	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Isabella Aviles	+0.3
35	21-14	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Alessia Zampieri		+0.5
36	21-15	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Isabella Aviles	+0.3
37	22-15	C CONN	FDU	Serve err	Central Conn. St.		+0.4
38	23-15		FDU	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+0.2
39	23-16	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Isabella Aviles	+0.1
40	24-16	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Alessia Zampieri	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.1
41	24-17	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Isabella Aviles	·
42	25-17	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Ava Deguzman	·
Set 3
1	1-0	FDU	FDU	Blocked	Olivia Keckler	blk Nina Jasiecka, Angela Marchetto	+1.2
2	2-0	FDU	FDU	Kill	Isabella Scarfone		+1.1
3	2-1	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Madison Fulgencio	set Isabella Aviles	+0.9
4	3-1	C CONN	FDU×5	Serve err	Central Conn. St.		+0.9
5	4-1	FDU	FDU×5	Kill	Angela Marchetto	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.1
6	5-1	FDU	FDU×5	Blocked	Olivia Keckler	blk Angela Marchetto	+1.0
7	6-1	FDU	FDU×5	Ace	FDU	aced Meg Berkland	+0.9
8	7-1	FDU	FDU×5	Blocked	Madison Fulgencio	blk Angela Marchetto, Ixchel kiahuitl Lopez sanchez	+0.8
9	7-2	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Madison Fulgencio		+0.5
10	8-2	C CONN	FDU	Blocked	Olivia Keckler	blk Angela Marchetto, Nina Jasiecka	+0.6
11	8-3	FDU	C CONN×5	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Gabriella Burdier	+0.5
12	8-4	C CONN	C CONN×5	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Annabelle Denomme	+0.8
13	8-5	C CONN	C CONN×5	Attack err	Ixchel kiahuitl Lopez sanchez		+1.0
14	8-6	C CONN	C CONN×5	Ace	Central Conn. St.		+1.1
15	8-7	C CONN	C CONN×5	Ace	Central Conn. St.	aced Mila Samardzija	+1.3
16	9-7	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Nina Jasiecka	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.1
17	9-8	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Gabriella Burdier	+1.1
18	10-8	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Alessia Zampieri	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.1
19	10-9	FDU	C CONN×4	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Isabella Aviles	+1.1
20	10-10	C CONN	C CONN×4	Ace	Central Conn. St.		+1.5
21	10-11	C CONN	C CONN×4	Kill	Madison Fulgencio	set Isabella Aviles	+1.6
22	10-12	C CONN	C CONN×4	Ace	Central Conn. St.	aced Ixchel kiahuitl Lopez sanchez	+1.6
23	11-12	C CONN	FDU	Serve err	Central Conn. St.		+1.2
24	11-13	FDU	C CONN	Attack err	Mila Samardzija	set Ava Deguzman	+1.4
25	12-13	C CONN	FDU	Serve err	Central Conn. St.		+1.3
26	12-14	FDU	C CONN	Bad set	Nina Jasiecka		+1.4
27	13-14	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.3
28	13-15	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Isabella Aviles	+1.5
29	14-15	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Nina Jasiecka	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.4
30	14-16	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Isabella Aviles	+1.6
31	15-16	C CONN	FDU	Bad set	Breanna Ginley		+1.4
32	15-17	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Isabella Aviles	+1.6
33	16-17	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Alessia Zampieri	set Isabella Scarfone	+1.5
34	17-17		FDU	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+2.1
35	17-18	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Isabella Aviles	+1.8
36	18-18	C CONN	FDU	Attack err	Madison Fulgencio	set Isabella Aviles	+1.8
37	19-18	FDU	FDU	Ace	FDU	aced Olivia Keckler	+2.3
38	19-19	FDU	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Isabella Aviles	+1.9
39	20-19	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+2.0
40	21-19	FDU	FDU	Kill	Angela Marchetto	set Isabella Scarfone	+2.4
41	21-20	FDU	C CONN	Blocked	Nina Jasiecka	blk Olivia Keckler, Cullen Winter	+1.7
42	22-20	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+2.1
43	22-21	FDU	C CONN	Blocked	Mila Samardzija	blk Breanna Ginley	+1.8
44	22-22	C CONN	C CONN	Attack err	Ixchel kiahuitl Lopez sanchez		+3.2
45	23-22	C CONN	FDU	Attack err	Breanna Ginley	set Isabella Aviles	+3.1
46	24-22	FDU	FDU	Kill	Nina Jasiecka	set Isabella Scarfone	+3.6
47	24-23	FDU	C CONN	Blocked	Nina Jasiecka	blk Breanna Ginley, Olivia Keckler	+1.7
48	24-24	C CONN	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Isabella Aviles	+4.9
49	25-24	C CONN	FDU	Kill	Ixchel kiahuitl Lopez sanchez	set Nina Jasiecka	+3.9
50	26-24	FDU	FDU	Blocked	Hanley Schmidt	blk Alessia Zampieri	+4.7

Score shown after each rally, FDU first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

FDU def. Central Conn. St. 3–0

FDU won every phase. No turning point, just a gap.