Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 3, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Ohio def. Akron 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Ohio 62.8% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 3, 2:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Ohio beat visiting Akron 3-1 (25-21, 18-25, 25-22, 25-20) on Sat, Oct 3, 2026. Ohio's Rose Mahin led with 17 kills, and Bailey Blair added 12 digs.

Data through · final Oct 3

Set1234Sets
AKRON212522201
OHIO251825253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

.368 on 38 swings: Rose Mahin and Ohio edged Akron.

The match turned twice. Numbers are Ohio's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Ohio at 63%.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · Akron 17–14 Ohio

    5 straight Ohio points turned a 14–17 deficit into a 19–17 lead.

    Ohio 52% → 70%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Akron 15–13 Ohio

    6 straight Ohio points turned a 13–15 deficit into a 19–15 lead.

    Ohio 72% → 95%

Ohio above 50Akron belowMax swing 5.4%

AkronOhio

Sideout %
Akron 62.0·Ohio 65.2
Break %
Akron 34.8·Ohio 38.0
Hitting
Akron .282·Ohio .309
Longest run
Akron 5·Ohio 6

Torre Kildow
2 of her kills came in the stretches above. 9 K, .292, 10 points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Ohio above 50 · Akron below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+5.4% OHIOrally 181 · set 4

Biggest swing: 5.4% to Ohio — set 3, AKRON 20-23 OHIO. Kill by Bailey Blair (set by Rowan Kelly). OHIO win probability 72% → 78%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

AKRON 40.4%59.6% OHIO

Akron wins

3-0
8.9%
3-1
14.8%
3-2
16.8%

Ohio wins

3-0
17.0%
3-1
22.7%
3-2
19.9%
AKRON break %
39.4% vs this opp
OHIO break %
41.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Bailey BlairKill+5.4%

    Kill by Bailey Blair (set by Rowan Kelly)

    Set 3 · AKRON 20-23 OHIO · OHIO 72% → 78%

  2. 02
    AkronService error+5.3%

    Akron service error

    Set 3 · AKRON 20-22 OHIO · OHIO 67% → 72%

  3. 03
    Bailey BlairAttack error+5.2%

    Attack error by Bailey Blair

    Set 3 · AKRON 19-20 OHIO · AKRON 29% → 34%

  4. 04
    Chidera OzohAttack error+5.2%

    Attack error by Chidera Ozoh

    Set 3 · AKRON 16-18 OHIO · OHIO 64% → 69%

  5. 05
    Lauren WilsonKill+5.1%

    Kill by Lauren Wilson (set by Clara Christensen)

    Set 3 · AKRON 16-16 OHIO · AKRON 35% → 40%

  6. 06
    Bailey BlairKill+4.8%

    Kill by Bailey Blair (set by Rowan Kelly)

    Set 3 · AKRON 19-21 OHIO · OHIO 66% → 71%

  7. 07
    Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+4.7%

    Point Ohio (not logged in NCAA feed)

    Set 3 · AKRON 17-20 OHIO · OHIO 69% → 74%

  8. 08
    Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+4.6%

    Point Ohio (not logged in NCAA feed)

    Set 3 · AKRON 14-16 OHIO · OHIO 63% → 68%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Akronaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
417337.3780004002118
411318.4440000012213
49115.5331026002110
49221.33300400010.59.5
4001.000121900002
4104.2502500800001
47524.083100110007
45519.00000020010.55.5
41011.0001200600001
4012-.5008021610000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
Team totals6020142.282482952318588
Ohiohome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
417338.36800250010.517.5
413729.207111120010.514.5
48216.37501120052.511.5
47118.33300010132.59.5
4318.2504711700426
4102.500301800001
49224.2920002002110
22Lacy MarxL/DS
4001.000100400000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–102800000
4000–000200000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
Team totals5816136.3095338512116993

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Akron vs Ohio

Season series · Ohio leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 AKRON · OHIO 6

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 5 AKRONOHIO 5

Set 2

25-18

Longest run 5 AKRONOHIO 3

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 4 AKRONOHIO 3

Set 4

20-25

Longest run 3 AKRONOHIO 6

Bars above the line = Ohio leads, below = Akron leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Akron

SlotSideout %Break %
1
100%6/6
45%5/11
2
86%6/7
33%3/9
3
100%5/5
33%3/9
4
36%4/11
43%3/7
5
67%4/6
0%0/4
6
57%4/7
33%2/6
All
69%29/42
35%16/46

Ohio

SlotSideout %Break %
1
55%6/11
43%3/7
2
67%6/9
0%0/6
3
67%6/9
14%1/7
4
57%4/7
0%0/5
5
100%4/4
64%7/11
6
67%4/6
33%2/6
All
65%30/46
31%13/42

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

181 rallies

#AKRON-OHIOSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0OHIOAKRONKillNoelle Apratiset Clara Christensen+1.8
21-1AKRONOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+1.8
31-2OHIOOHIOAttack errDelaney Gash+2.3
42-2OHIOAKRON×3KillDelaney Gashset Clara Christensen+1.8
53-2AKRON
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.5
64-2AKRONAKRON×3Attack errBailey Blair+2.6
74-3AKRONOHIOServe errAkron+1.8
85-3OHIOAKRONBlockedEmily Waddellblk Chidera Ozoh+2.0
95-4AKRONOHIO×5KillTorre Kildowset Rowan Kelly+1.9
105-5OHIOOHIO×5BlockedChidera Ozohblk Rowan Kelly, Emily Waddell+2.6
115-6OHIOOHIO×5AceOhioaced Lauren Wilson+2.6
125-7OHIOOHIO×5BlockedJordyn Aeschlimanblk Emily Waddell, Torre Kildow+2.5
135-8OHIOOHIO×5KillTorre Kildowset Darbi Ricketts+2.3
146-8OHIOAKRONKillJordyn Aeschlimanset Vanessa Del real+1.6
156-9AKRONOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+1.8
167-9OHIOAKRONKillMasa Prascevic+1.7
177-10AKRONOHIOBlockedLauren Wilsonblk Emily Waddell, Rowan Kelly+1.8
187-11OHIOOHIOKillGentry Brown+2.2
198-11OHIOAKRON×5Serve errOhio+1.4
209-11AKRONAKRON×5KillDelaney Gash+2.3
2110-11AKRONAKRON×5KillClara Christensen+2.7
2211-11AKRONAKRON×5KillDelaney Gashset Vanessa Del real+3.0
2312-11AKRONAKRON×5KillNoelle Apratiset Vanessa Del real+3.3
2412-12AKRONOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+2.4
2513-12OHIOAKRONKillLyndi Wolfset Clara Christensen+2.6
2614-12AKRONAKRONKillDelaney Gashset Clara Christensen+3.5
2714-13AKRONOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+2.4
2815-13OHIOAKRONServe errOhio+2.7
2915-14AKRONOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+2.5
3016-14OHIOAKRONAttack errTorre Kildowset Rowan Kelly+2.9
3117-14AKRONAKRONKillLauren Wilson+3.6
3217-15AKRONOHIO×5Attack errJordyn Aeschlimanset Vanessa Del real+2.2
3317-16OHIOOHIO×5Attack errJordyn Aeschliman+3.6
3417-17OHIOOHIO×5KillTorre Kildowset Rowan Kelly+4.0
3517-18OHIOOHIO×5BlockedJordyn Aeschlimanblk Emily Waddell, Torre Kildow+4.2
3617-19OHIOOHIO×5Attack errChidera Ozoh+4.0
3718-19OHIOAKRONKillLauren Wilsonset Masa Prascevic+2.7
3818-20AKRONOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+3.2
3919-20OHIOAKRONKillLauren Wilson+2.9
4019-21AKRONOHIOKillRose Mahinset Gentry Brown+3.5
4119-22OHIOOHIOAceOhioaced Vanessa Del real+3.8
4220-22OHIOAKRONKillNoelle Apratiset Clara Christensen+1.9
4320-23AKRONOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+3.0
4421-23OHIOAKRONKillNoelle Apratiset Lyndi Wolf+1.7
4521-24AKRONOHIOKillBailey Blairset Gentry Brown+3.0
4621-25OHIOOHIOKillOlivia Gardner+1.5
Set 2
10-1AKRONOHIOBlockedNoelle Apratiblk Rose Mahin, Olivia Gardner+1.5
21-1OHIOAKRONKillLyndi Wolfset Clara Christensen+1.6
31-2AKRONOHIOServe errAkron+1.5
42-2OHIOAKRONKillChidera Ozohset Clara Christensen+1.6
52-3AKRONOHIOServe errAkron+1.6
63-3OHIOAKRONKillDelaney Gashset Vanessa Del real+1.6
73-4AKRONOHIOKillTorre Kildowset Rowan Kelly+1.6
84-4OHIOAKRONKillJordyn Aeschlimanset Masa Prascevic+1.7
94-5AKRONOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Bailey Blair+1.7
105-5OHIOAKRONKillJordyn Aeschlimanset Masa Prascevic+1.7
116-5AKRONAKRONKillLyndi Wolfset Clara Christensen+2.4
126-6AKRONOHIO×3KillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+1.7
136-7OHIOOHIO×3Attack errNoelle Aprati+2.3
146-8OHIOOHIO×3BlockedLyndi Wolfblk Bailey Blair, Olivia Gardner+2.3
157-8OHIOAKRONKillNoelle Apratiset Clara Christensen+1.7
167-9AKRONOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+1.7
178-9OHIOAKRONServe errOhio+1.7
189-9AKRONAKRONKillDelaney Gashset Clara Christensen+2.5
199-10AKRONOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+1.9
2010-10OHIOAKRONServe errOhio+2.0
2111-10AKRONAKRONKillChidera Ozohset Rowan Kelly+2.8
2211-11AKRONOHIOAttack errDelaney Gashset Jordyn Aeschliman+2.0
2312-11OHIOAKRONKillDelaney Gashset Masa Prascevic+2.2
2413-11AKRONAKRONAttack errRose Mahin+2.9
2513-12AKRONOHIOKillEmily Waddell+2.0
2613-13OHIOOHIOAttack errJordyn Aeschliman+2.9
2714-13OHIOAKRONServe errOhio+2.4
2814-14AKRONOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+2.3
2915-14OHIOAKRONKillLyndi Wolfset Masa Prascevic+2.5
3015-15AKRONOHIOKillRowan Kelly+2.4
3116-15OHIOAKRON×5KillLauren Wilsonset Clara Christensen+2.6
3217-15AKRONAKRON×5AceReilly Chausse+3.5
3318-15AKRONAKRON×5KillNoelle Apratiset Clara Christensen+3.3
3419-15AKRONAKRON×5KillNoelle Aprati+2.8
3520-15AKRONAKRON×5AceReilly Chausse+2.2
3620-16AKRONOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+1.0
3721-16OHIOAKRONKillDelaney Gashset Clara Christensen+1.6
3821-17AKRONOHIOServe errAkron+0.9
3922-17OHIOAKRON×3KillDelaney Gash+1.5
4023-17AKRONAKRON×3BlockedBailey Blairblk Chidera Ozoh, Delaney Gash+1.0
4124-17AKRONAKRON×3KillClara Christensen+0.4
4224-18AKRONOHIOKillTorre Kildowset Rowan Kelly·
4325-18OHIOAKRONKillDelaney Gashset Vanessa Del real+0.1
Set 3
10-1OHIOOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+3.1
21-1OHIOAKRON×4Serve errOhio+2.4
32-1AKRONAKRON×4BlockedOlivia Gardnerblk Lyndi Wolf, Noelle Aprati+3.3
43-1AKRONAKRON×4KillLyndi Wolf+3.4
54-1AKRONAKRON×4Attack errRose Mahin+3.4
64-2AKRONOHIOServe errAkron+2.3
75-2OHIOAKRONKillDelaney Gashset Reilly Chausse+2.6
85-3AKRONOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+2.4
96-3OHIOAKRONBad setTorre Kildow+2.7
106-4AKRONOHIOAttack errLauren Wilsonset Lyndi Wolf+2.4
117-4OHIOAKRONKillLyndi Wolfset Masa Prascevic+2.8
127-5AKRONOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+2.5
137-6OHIOOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+3.6
148-6OHIOAKRONKillJordyn Aeschlimanset Masa Prascevic+2.9
158-7AKRONOHIOKillRowan Kellyset Lacy Marx+2.7
168-8OHIOOHIOAttack errLauren Wilson+3.8
179-8OHIOAKRONKillLauren Wilsonset Clara Christensen+3.0
1810-8AKRONAKRONBlockedRowan Kellyblk Delaney Gash, Chidera Ozoh+4.1
1910-9AKRONOHIO×3KillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+2.9
2010-10OHIO
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+4.0
2110-11OHIOOHIO×3AceOhio+4.1
2211-11OHIOAKRONKillNoelle Apratiset Clara Christensen+3.1
2311-12AKRONOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+3.2
2412-12OHIOAKRONKillDelaney Gashset Clara Christensen+3.2
2512-13AKRONOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+3.3
2613-13OHIOAKRONAttack errBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+3.4
2713-14AKRONOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+3.4
2814-14OHIOAKRONServe errOhio+3.5
2914-15AKRONOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+3.6
3014-16OHIO
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+4.6
3115-16OHIOAKRONKillChidera Ozohset Masa Prascevic+3.3
3216-16AKRONAKRONKillLauren Wilsonset Clara Christensen+5.1
3316-17AKRONOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+4.0
3416-18OHIOOHIOAttack errChidera Ozoh+5.2
3517-18OHIOAKRONKillChidera Ozoh+3.6
3617-19AKRONOHIOServe errAkron+4.1
3717-20OHIO
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+4.7
3818-20OHIOAKRONKillClara Christensen+2.8
3919-20AKRONAKRONAttack errBailey Blair+5.2
4019-21AKRONOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+4.8
4120-21OHIOAKRONKillLyndi Wolf+4.1
4220-22AKRONOHIO×3Serve errAkron+5.3
4320-23OHIOOHIO×3KillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+5.4
4420-24OHIOOHIO×3KillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+3.0
4521-24OHIOAKRONKillDelaney Gashset Vanessa Del real+0.7
4622-24AKRONAKRONKillLauren Wilsonset Vanessa Del real+2.2
4722-25AKRONOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+3.8
Set 4
10-1AKRONOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+2.1
21-1OHIOAKRONAttack errRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+2.2
32-1AKRONAKRONAttack errBailey Blair+3.0
42-2AKRONOHIOServe errAkron+2.2
52-3OHIOOHIOAttack errDelaney Gash+2.9
63-3OHIOAKRONServe errOhio+2.3
73-4AKRONOHIOServe errAkron+2.2
84-4OHIOAKRON×3Attack errBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+2.3
95-4AKRONAKRON×3Attack errEmily Waddell+3.2
106-4AKRONAKRON×3BlockedTorre Kildowblk Lyndi Wolf, Jordyn Aeschliman+3.3
116-5AKRONOHIOKillTorre Kildowset Rowan Kelly+2.3
126-6OHIOOHIOBlockedLauren Wilsonblk Emily Waddell, Rowan Kelly+3.2
137-6OHIOAKRONKillLyndi Wolfset Masa Prascevic+2.6
147-7AKRONOHIO×3KillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+2.5
157-8OHIOOHIO×3BlockedLauren Wilsonblk Rowan Kelly, Olivia Gardner+3.3
167-9OHIOOHIO×3KillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+3.2
178-9OHIOAKRONKillChidera Ozohset Masa Prascevic+2.4
189-9AKRONAKRONKillChidera Ozohset Clara Christensen+3.5
199-10AKRONOHIOKillRose Mahinset Gentry Brown+2.7
2010-10OHIOAKRONKillChidera Ozohset Clara Christensen+2.7
2111-10AKRONAKRONKillDelaney Gash+3.9
2211-11AKRONOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+2.8
2312-11OHIOAKRONKillChidera Ozohset Clara Christensen+3.0
2413-11AKRONAKRONAttack errBailey Blair+4.1
2513-12AKRONOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+2.8
2614-12OHIOAKRONKillDelaney Gashset Vanessa Del real+3.2
2714-13AKRONOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+2.9
2815-13OHIOAKRONKillJordyn Aeschlimanset Masa Prascevic+3.4
2915-14AKRONOHIO×6KillTorre Kildowset Rowan Kelly+3.0
3015-15OHIOOHIO×6KillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+4.5
3115-16OHIOOHIO×6Attack errDelaney Gash+4.6
3215-17OHIOOHIO×6KillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+4.4
3315-18OHIOOHIO×6KillRowan Kelly+3.9
3415-19OHIOOHIO×6KillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+3.1
3516-19OHIOAKRONKillLyndi Wolfset Clara Christensen+1.8
3616-20AKRONOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+2.4
3717-20OHIOAKRONKillChidera Ozohset Clara Christensen+1.7
3817-21AKRONOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+2.4
3917-22OHIOOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+2.0
4018-22OHIOAKRONKillChidera Ozohset Clara Christensen+0.8
4118-23AKRONOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+1.3
4219-23OHIOAKRONKillChidera Ozohset Clara Christensen+0.5
4319-24AKRONOHIOKillTorre Kildowset Rowan Kelly+1.0
4420-24OHIOAKRONKillDelaney Gashset Clara Christensen+0.3
4520-25AKRONOHIOKillTorre Kildowset Rowan Kelly+0.6

Score shown after each rally, Akron first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).