Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 17, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Rider def. Manhattan 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Rider 58.0% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 17, 4:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Rider beat visiting Manhattan 3-1 (25-17, 25-14, 24-26, 25-22) on Sat, Oct 17, 2026. Rider's Anja Kelly led with 16 kills, and Simone Langford added 25 digs.

Data through · final Oct 17

Set1234Sets
MANHAT171426221
RIDER252524253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Rider won it on serve.

Win probability never moved more than 6.6 points on one rally; Manhattan topped out at 41% in Set 1. Rider went in as RallyIQ's 58% pick.

ManhattanRider
  • Break %+13.9 pts
    30.043.9

    Points won on own serve: 43 of 98 vs 24 of 80. Manhattan sided out 56.1% of the time.

  • Hitting+.107
    .154.261

    55 kills, 18 errors vs 46 kills, 24 errors.

Rider above 50Manhattan belowMax swing 6.6%

ManhattanRider

Aces
Manhattan 6·Rider 7
Serve err
Manhattan 11·Rider 9
Blocks
Manhattan 9·Rider 80 BS · 18 BA vs 0 BS · 16 BA
Digs
Manhattan 57·Rider 58

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Rider above 50 · Manhattan below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+6.6% RIDERrally 178 · set 4

Biggest swing: 6.6% to Rider — set 4, MANHAT 22-24 RIDER. Kill by Anja Kelly (set by Makenna Mason). RIDER win probability 88% → 95%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MANHAT 25.7%74.3% RIDER

Manhattan wins

3-0
4.6%
3-1
8.9%
3-2
12.3%

Rider wins

3-0
26.4%
3-1
28.4%
3-2
19.4%
MANHAT break %
38.9% vs this opp
RIDER break %
43.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Anja KellyKill+6.6%

    Kill by Anja Kelly (set by Makenna Mason)

    Set 4 · MANHAT 22-24 RIDER · RIDER 88% → 95%

  2. 02

    Aubrey Baker stuffed by Abby Morreale & Katie Powers

    Set 3 · MANHAT 26-24 RIDER · MANHAT 15% → 21%

  3. 03

    Emma Francesconi stuffed by Makenna Mason & Annabell Zachritz

    Set 3 · MANHAT 24-24 RIDER · RIDER 84% → 89%

  4. 04

    Anja Kelly stuffed by Mikalah Curran & Helenn Montilla

    Set 4 · MANHAT 22-23 RIDER · MANHAT 6% → 12%

  5. 05

    Mikalah Curran stuffed by Molly Rohde & Anja Kelly

    Set 4 · MANHAT 22-25 RIDER · RIDER 95% → 100%

  6. 06
    Abby MorrealeAttack error+4.3%

    Attack error by Abby Morreale

    Set 4 · MANHAT 12-13 RIDER · RIDER 78% → 82%

  7. 07

    Kill by Rylah Robinson (set by Makenna Mason)

    Set 4 · MANHAT 12-14 RIDER · RIDER 82% → 86%

  8. 08

    Kill by Emma Francesconi (set by Emilia Kuzniar)

    Set 3 · MANHAT 25-24 RIDER · MANHAT 11% → 15%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
410322.31800000031.511.5
47214.3570032006310
45630-.0330321220219
4002.0002012800001
310424.250003111010.510.5
3328.125000000214
49428.17900000031.510.5
41011.0002020700003
4112.0002001100001
4000–101620000
3000–000000000
2004.00000000010.50.5
2028-.250000010000
Team totals4624143.15443611577018979
Riderhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416232.43800000031.517.5
49116.5000201004213
47533.061000110218
4409.4444511500216
4000–010910001
34312.08310130010.54.5
414633.24210020010.514.5
4001.0004202500002
41011.000004400001
4000–013740001
2015-.20000010031.51.5
Team totals5518142.2615179586016899

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Manhattan vs Rider

Season series · Rider leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 MANHAT · RIDER 4

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 3 MANHATRIDER 4

Set 2

14-25

Longest run 2 MANHATRIDER 4

Set 3

26-24

Longest run 6 MANHATRIDER 3

Set 4

22-25

Longest run 2 MANHATRIDER 3

Bars above the line = Rider leads, below = Manhattan leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Manhattan

SlotSideout %Break %
1
43%10/23
18%2/11
2
67%10/15
17%2/12
3
53%10/19
17%2/12
4
64%9/14
47%8/17
5
60%9/15
44%7/16
6
58%7/12
25%3/12
All
56%55/98
30%24/80

Rider

SlotSideout %Break %
1
91%10/11
53%9/17
2
71%10/14
47%9/19
3
60%9/15
47%9/19
4
53%9/17
25%3/12
5
82%9/11
40%6/15
6
75%9/12
44%7/16
All
70%56/80
44%43/98

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

178 rallies

#MANHAT-RIDERSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1RIDERRIDERKillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+2.4
21-1RIDERMANHATAttack errMolly Rohde+1.8
31-2MANHATRIDERKillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+1.8
41-3RIDERRIDERAceRideraced Anna Duncan+2.4
52-3RIDERMANHATKillAbby Morrealeset Ori Briger+1.7
62-4MANHATRIDER×4Attack errMikalah Curran+1.8
72-5RIDERRIDER×4KillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+2.3
82-6RIDERRIDER×4BlockedKatie Powersblk Aubrey Baker, Tori Bonacci+2.1
92-7RIDERRIDER×4Attack errMikalah Curran+1.9
103-7RIDERMANHAT×3KillMikalah Curranset Ori Briger+1.2
114-7MANHATMANHAT×3AceEmilia Kuzniaraced Aubrey Baker+2.0
125-7MANHATMANHAT×3KillMikalah Curranset Emilia Kuzniar+2.3
135-8MANHATRIDERAttack errMikalah Curran+1.8
145-9RIDERRIDERKillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+2.3
156-9RIDERMANHATKillMikalah Curranset Emilia Kuzniar+1.5
166-10MANHATRIDERKillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+1.7
177-10RIDERMANHATKillHanna Kaczynskaset Emilia Kuzniar+1.5
188-10MANHATMANHATKillHanna Kaczynskaset Anna Duncan+2.4
198-11MANHATRIDERServe errAnna Duncan+2.0
209-11RIDERMANHATKillAbby Morrealeset Emilia Kuzniar+1.8
2110-11MANHATMANHATKillAbby Morrealeset Ori Briger+2.8
2210-12MANHATRIDER×4KillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+2.2
2310-13RIDERRIDER×4KillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+2.8
2410-14RIDERRIDER×4KillMolly Rohdeset Makenna Mason+2.5
2510-15RIDERRIDER×4Attack errEmma Francesconi+2.0
2611-15RIDERMANHATKillKatie Powersset Ori Briger+1.2
2711-16MANHATRIDERKillAubrey Bakerset Makenna Mason+1.5
2812-16RIDERMANHATKillAbby Morrealeset Ori Briger+1.1
2913-16MANHATMANHATAttack errAubrey Baker+2.1
3013-17MANHATRIDERServe errAbby Morreale+1.9
3113-18RIDERRIDERAttack errHelenn Montilla+2.0
3214-18RIDERMANHATServe errKatie Cook+1.1
3314-19MANHATRIDERKillAubrey Bakerset Makenna Mason+1.5
3415-19RIDERMANHATKillHanna Kaczynskaset Emilia Kuzniar+1.0
3515-20MANHATRIDERKillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+1.4
3616-20RIDERMANHATKillEmma Francesconiset Emilia Kuzniar+0.9
3716-21MANHATRIDER×4KillMakenna Masonset Simone Langford+1.4
3816-22RIDERRIDER×4KillRylah Robinson+1.0
3916-23RIDERRIDER×4Attack errAbby Morreale+0.5
4016-24RIDERRIDER×4BlockedEmma Francesconiblk Molly Rohde, Anja Kelly+0.1
4117-24RIDERMANHATBlockedRylah Robinsonblk Hanna Kaczynska, Abby Morreale·
4217-25MANHATRIDERKillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason·
Set 2
10-1MANHATRIDER×3Serve errOri Briger+1.6
20-2RIDERRIDER×3Attack errKarsyn Harris+2.2
30-3RIDERRIDER×3KillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+2.1
41-3RIDERMANHATKillKatie Powersset Ori Briger+1.4
51-4MANHATRIDERServe errEmma Francesconi+1.5
62-4RIDERMANHATAttack errTori Bonacci+1.5
72-5MANHATRIDERAttack errKarsyn Harris+1.6
82-6RIDERRIDERAceRideraced Anna Duncan+2.0
93-6RIDERMANHATKillKatie Powersset Ori Briger+1.3
104-6MANHATMANHATAceEmilia Kuzniaraced Carly Allen+2.1
114-7MANHATRIDERKillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+1.6
125-7RIDERMANHATKillHanna Kaczynskaset Emilia Kuzniar+1.6
135-8MANHATRIDER×4KillMolly Rohdeset Makenna Mason+1.7
145-9RIDERRIDER×4Attack errEmma Francesconi+2.1
155-10RIDERRIDER×4AceRideraced Karsyn Harris+1.8
165-11RIDERRIDER×4KillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+1.5
176-11RIDERMANHATKillEmma Francesconiset Emilia Kuzniar+0.9
186-12MANHATRIDERKillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+1.1
197-12RIDERMANHATKillAbby Morrealeset Emilia Kuzniar+0.9
208-12MANHATMANHATAttack errAubrey Baker+1.5
218-13MANHATRIDER×3KillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+1.4
228-14RIDERRIDER×3KillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+1.5
238-15RIDERRIDER×3KillAnja Kellyset Simone Langford+1.1
249-15RIDERMANHATKillKatie Powersset Ori Briger+0.6
259-16MANHATRIDERKillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+0.8
269-17RIDERRIDERAttack errKatie Powers+0.7
2710-17RIDERMANHATServe errKatie Cook+0.3
2810-18MANHATRIDERServe errAbby Morreale+0.5
2910-19RIDERRIDERAttack errJulia Pfleger+0.4
3011-19RIDERMANHATAttack errRylah Robinson+0.1
3112-19MANHATMANHATBlockedRylah Robinsonblk Hanna Kaczynska, Laura Hernandez+0.3
3212-20MANHATRIDER×3KillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+0.4
3312-21RIDERRIDER×3KillMakenna Masonset Tori Bonacci+0.2
3412-22RIDERRIDER×3Attack errEmma Francesconi+0.1
3513-22RIDERMANHATServe errTori Bonacci·
3613-23MANHATRIDERKillMolly Rohdeset Makenna Mason·
3713-24RIDERRIDERKillMolly Rohdeset Emilia Kuzniar·
3814-24RIDERMANHATKillHanna Kaczynskaset Emilia Kuzniar·
3914-25MANHATRIDERKillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason·
Set 3
10-1RIDERRIDERKillAubrey Bakerset Makenna Mason+1.4
21-1RIDERMANHATKillMikalah Curranset Emilia Kuzniar+1.0
31-2MANHATRIDERKillAubrey Baker+1.0
42-2RIDERMANHATKillHelenn Montillaset Emilia Kuzniar+1.0
53-2MANHATMANHATBlockedAubrey Bakerblk Hanna Kaczynska, Abby Morreale+1.5
63-3MANHATRIDERKillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+1.1
74-3RIDERMANHATServe errKatie Cook+1.1
85-3MANHATMANHATAceOri Brigeraced Olivia DeSaro+1.5
95-4MANHATRIDERServe errOri Briger+1.1
106-4RIDERMANHAT×6Serve errCarly Allen+1.1
117-4MANHATMANHAT×6BlockedRylah Robinsonblk Abby Morreale, Katie Powers+1.5
128-4MANHATMANHAT×6AceEmma Francesconiaced Carly Allen+1.4
139-4MANHATMANHAT×6AceEmma Francesconiaced Carly Allen+1.3
1410-4MANHATMANHAT×6Attack errTori Bonacci+1.1
1511-4MANHATMANHAT×6BlockedRylah Robinsonblk Abby Morreale, Katie Powers+0.9
1611-5MANHATRIDERKillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+0.5
1712-5RIDERMANHATKillAbby Morrealeset Ori Briger+0.7
1812-6MANHATRIDERServe errAbby Morreale+0.5
1913-6RIDERMANHATKillKatie Powersset Ori Briger+0.7
2013-7MANHATRIDER×3KillMolly Rohdeset Makenna Mason+0.5
2113-8RIDERRIDER×3AceRideraced Emma Francesconi+0.8
2213-9RIDERRIDER×3Attack errHanna Kaczynska+1.1
2314-9RIDERMANHATKillMikalah Curranset Emilia Kuzniar+1.0
2414-10MANHATRIDERServe errMikalah Curran+0.8
2514-11RIDERRIDERAceRideraced Mikalah Curran+1.3
2615-11RIDERMANHATKillHanna Kaczynskaset Emilia Kuzniar+1.2
2715-12MANHATRIDER×3KillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+1.0
2815-13RIDERRIDER×3KillAubrey Bakerset Makenna Mason+1.6
2915-14RIDERRIDER×3KillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+1.9
3016-14RIDERMANHAT×3KillHanna Kaczynskaset Emilia Kuzniar+1.6
3117-14MANHATMANHAT×3KillKatie Powersset Ori Briger+2.0
3218-14MANHATMANHAT×3BlockedTori Bonacciblk Emma Francesconi, Abby Morreale+1.7
3318-15MANHATRIDERKillMakenna Masonset Simone Langford+1.0
3419-15RIDERMANHATServe errCarly Allen+1.3
3520-15MANHATMANHATKillMikalah Curranset Julia Pfleger+1.3
3620-16MANHATRIDER×3KillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+0.6
3720-17RIDERRIDER×3KillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+1.2
3820-18RIDERRIDER×3BlockedKatie Powersblk Molly Rohde, Rylah Robinson+1.8
3921-18RIDERMANHATKillMikalah Curranset Ori Briger+1.8
4021-19MANHATRIDERKillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+1.3
4122-19RIDERMANHATKillMikalah Curranset Ori Briger+1.9
4222-20MANHATRIDERKillMolly Rohdeset Makenna Mason+1.2
4323-20RIDERMANHATKillHanna Kaczynskaset Emilia Kuzniar+2.0
4423-21MANHATRIDERKillMolly Rohdeset Makenna Mason+1.1
4523-22RIDERRIDERBlockedHanna Kaczynskablk Anja Kelly, Annabell Zachritz+2.6
4624-22RIDERMANHATKillEmilia Kuzniarset Ori Briger+3.2
4724-23MANHATRIDERAttack errHanna Kaczynska+1.8
4824-24RIDERRIDERBlockedEmma Francesconiblk Makenna Mason, Annabell Zachritz+5.7
4925-24RIDERMANHATKillEmma Francesconiset Emilia Kuzniar+4.2
5026-24MANHATMANHATBlockedAubrey Bakerblk Abby Morreale, Katie Powers+5.8
Set 4
10-1MANHATRIDERKillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+2.2
20-2RIDERRIDERAceRideraced Emma Francesconi+3.0
31-2RIDERMANHATAttack errAubrey Baker+2.1
41-3MANHATRIDERServe errMikalah Curran+2.2
52-3RIDERMANHATKillJulia Pflegerset Emilia Kuzniar+2.2
62-4MANHATRIDERKillAubrey Bakerset Makenna Mason+2.3
73-4RIDERMANHATServe errCarly Allen+2.2
83-5MANHATRIDERKillKatie Cookset Rylah Robinson+2.3
94-5RIDERMANHATKillKatie Powersset Ori Briger+2.3
105-5MANHATMANHATAceEmma Francesconiaced Carly Allen+3.3
115-6MANHATRIDERKillMolly Rohdeset Makenna Mason+2.5
126-6RIDERMANHATKillKatie Powersset Ori Briger+2.5
137-6MANHATMANHATAttack errRylah Robinson+3.6
147-7MANHATRIDERKillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+2.6
158-7RIDERMANHATKillMikalah Curranset Ori Briger+2.7
168-8MANHATRIDERKillMolly Rohdeset Makenna Mason+2.7
179-8RIDERMANHATKillHanna Kaczynskaset Emilia Kuzniar+2.8
1810-8MANHATMANHATKillHelenn Montilla+3.9
1910-9MANHATRIDERBad setEmilia Kuzniar+2.7
2010-10RIDERRIDERAttack errHanna Kaczynska+3.9
2111-10RIDERMANHATServe errKatie Cook+3.0
2211-11MANHATRIDERKillMakenna Masonset Simone Langford+2.9
2312-11RIDERMANHATKillEmma Francesconiset Julia Pfleger+3.1
2412-12MANHATRIDER×3BlockedEmma Francesconiblk Makenna Mason, Annabell Zachritz+3.0
2512-13RIDERRIDER×3Attack errAbby Morreale+4.3
2612-14RIDERRIDER×3KillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+4.2
2713-14RIDERMANHATKillKatie Powersset Ori Briger+2.9
2813-15MANHATRIDERServe errEmma Francesconi+3.2
2914-15RIDERMANHATKillKatie Powersset Ori Briger+3.0
3014-16MANHATRIDERBad setHelenn Montilla+3.3
3114-17RIDERRIDERKillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+4.1
3215-17RIDERMANHATKillMikalah Curranset Ori Briger+2.6
3315-18MANHATRIDERBlockedHelenn Montillablk Molly Rohde, Aubrey Baker+3.1
3415-19RIDERRIDERAceRider+3.4
3516-19RIDERMANHATKillHelenn Montillaset Emilia Kuzniar+1.9
3617-19MANHATMANHATAttack errAnja Kelly+3.6
3717-20MANHATRIDERServe errMikalah Curran+3.4
3818-20RIDERMANHATBlockedAnnabell Zachritzblk Helenn Montilla, Emma Francesconi+2.7
3918-21MANHATRIDERKillAubrey Bakerset Makenna Mason+3.6
4019-21RIDERMANHATKillEmma Francesconiset Emilia Kuzniar+2.6
4119-22MANHATRIDERKillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+3.7
4220-22RIDERMANHATKillAbby Morrealeset Ori Briger+2.5
4320-23MANHATRIDERKillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+3.9
4421-23RIDERMANHATServe errMakenna Mason+2.2
4522-23MANHATMANHATBlockedAnja Kellyblk Mikalah Curran, Helenn Montilla+5.5
4622-24MANHATRIDERKillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+6.6
4722-25RIDERRIDERBlockedMikalah Curranblk Molly Rohde, Anja Kelly+4.9

Score shown after each rally, Manhattan first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).