Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 24, 2026

Rider def. Merrimack 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Merrimack 53.4% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 24, 12:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Rider won at Merrimack 3-1 (23-25, 25-16, 25-18, 25-17) on Sat, Oct 24, 2026. Rider's Rylah Robinson led with 17 kills, and Simone Langford added 18 digs.

Data through · final Oct 24

Set1234Sets
RIDER232525253
MERMCK251618171

Match story · written from the play-by-play

7 of the last 8 rallies went to Rider, closing out Merrimack.

The match turned twice; each line shows Rider's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. Merrimack went in at 53% by RallyIQ.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 3 · Rider 6–7 Merrimack

    6 straight Rider points turned a 6–7 deficit into a 12–7 lead. The match swung to Rider.

    Rider 44% → 65%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Rider 16–16 Merrimack

    From 16–16, Rider scored 5 straight to lead 21–16.

    Rider 74% → 97%

Merrimack above 50Rider belowMax swing 7.7%

RiderMerrimack

Sideout %
Rider 66.2·Merrimack 51.5
Break %
Rider 48.5·Merrimack 33.8
Hitting
Rider .258·Merrimack .154
Longest run
Rider 6·Merrimack 4

Rylah Robinson
3 of her kills came in the stretches above. 17 K, .233, 18 points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Merrimack above 50 · Rider below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+7.7% MERMCKrally 174 · set 4

Biggest swing: 7.7% to Merrimack — set 1, RIDER 23-25 MERMCK. Kill by Tamilore Afolalu (set by Devon Lowe). MERMCK win probability 64% → 72%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

RIDER 64.3%35.7% MERMCK

Rider wins

3-0
19.6%
3-1
24.6%
3-2
20.0%

Merrimack wins

3-0
7.4%
3-1
12.8%
3-2
15.5%
RIDER break %
45.8% vs this opp
MERMCK break %
43.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Kill by Tamilore Afolalu (set by Devon Lowe)

    Set 1 · RIDER 23-25 MERMCK · MERMCK 64% → 72%

  2. 02
    Tori BonacciAttack error+5.8%

    Attack error by Tori Bonacci

    Set 1 · RIDER 22-24 MERMCK · MERMCK 62% → 67%

  3. 03
    Kaitlyn OxceusAttack error+5.7%

    Attack error by Kaitlyn Oxceus

    Set 4 · RIDER 18-16 MERMCK · RIDER 79% → 84%

  4. 04
    Mckenna ShotwellAttack error+5.2%

    Attack error by Mckenna Shotwell

    Set 4 · RIDER 19-16 MERMCK · RIDER 84% → 90%

  5. 05
    Tamilore AfolaluAttack error+4.9%

    Attack error by Tamilore Afolalu

    Set 4 · RIDER 14-13 MERMCK · RIDER 73% → 78%

  6. 06
    Aubrey BakerKill+4.6%

    Kill by Aubrey Baker (set by Makenna Mason)

    Set 1 · RIDER 22-23 MERMCK · RIDER 34% → 38%

  7. 07
    MerrimackService error+4.5%

    Merrimack service error

    Set 4 · RIDER 17-16 MERMCK · RIDER 74% → 79%

  8. 08
    Anja KellyKill+4.4%

    Kill by Anja Kelly (set by Carly Allen)

    Set 4 · RIDER 12-12 MERMCK · RIDER 69% → 73%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Rideraway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415535.28600030010.515.5
412330.3000003004214
49320.3000318004214
45210.300000400216
4005.0004730100010.53.5
4003.0000031110000
417743.2330003002118
4103.3334211800003
4001.000012810001
4001.0003021010000
Team totals5920151.2585499783014798
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413445.200002110010.513.5
4209.222012100425
44623-.08700031010.54.5
4206.3331801700002
4119.00010010010.51.5
4002.000002720000
412238.2630003000012
46420.10000020132.58.5
4001.0001712700001
4000–011000001
4001.0005002110000
2215.200000100002
1103.333000110001
Team totals4318162.15441310659110676

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 RIDER · MERMCK 4

Set 1

23-25

Longest run 4 RIDERMERMCK 4

Set 2

25-16

Longest run 4 RIDERMERMCK 4

Set 3

25-18

Longest run 6 RIDERMERMCK 4

Set 4

25-17

Longest run 5 RIDERMERMCK 3

Bars above the line = Merrimack leads, below = Rider leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rider

SlotSideout %Break %
1
56%10/18
47%7/15
2
90%9/10
40%6/15
3
75%9/12
44%7/16
4
67%8/12
44%7/16
5
57%8/14
53%9/17
6
64%7/11
61%11/18
All
66%51/77
48%47/97

Merrimack

SlotSideout %Break %
1
56%9/16
44%7/16
2
53%9/17
25%3/12
3
69%9/13
18%2/11
4
57%8/14
20%2/10
5
36%8/22
43%6/14
6
47%7/15
43%6/14
All
52%50/97
34%26/77

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

174 rallies

#RIDER-MERMCKSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1MERMCKMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Sophia DeBonis+2.4
20-2MERMCKMERMCKKillTamilore Afolaluset Sophia DeBonis+2.4
31-2MERMCKRIDERServe errMerrimack+1.8
41-3RIDERMERMCKKillTamilore Afolaluset Sophia DeBonis+1.9
51-4MERMCKMERMCKAceMerrimackaced Olivia DeSaro+2.3
62-4MERMCKRIDER×4Serve errMerrimack+1.7
73-4RIDERRIDER×4KillAubrey Bakerset Makenna Mason+2.4
84-4RIDERRIDER×4AceRideraced Jocelyn Hammerstrand+2.5
95-4RIDERRIDER×4KillAubrey Bakerset Simone Langford+2.6
105-5RIDERMERMCKKillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+2.1
115-6MERMCKMERMCKKillMaiella Blandinset Kaitlyn Oxceus+2.7
126-6MERMCKRIDERKillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+2.1
136-7RIDERMERMCKServe errRider+2.2
146-8MERMCKMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Devon Lowe+2.7
157-8MERMCKRIDERServe errMerrimack+2.1
167-9RIDERMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Devon Lowe+2.2
178-9MERMCKRIDERAttack errMaiella Blandin+2.1
188-10RIDERMERMCK×4BlockedRylah Robinsonblk Maiella Blandin+2.3
198-11MERMCKMERMCK×4KillMckenna Shotwellset Ella Maldonado+2.7
208-12MERMCKMERMCK×4Attack errAnja Kelly+2.5
218-13MERMCKMERMCK×4BlockedMolly Rohdeblk Maiella Blandin, Mia Izzo+2.1
229-13MERMCKRIDERKillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+1.4
2310-13RIDERRIDERKillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+2.2
2410-14RIDERMERMCKKillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+2.1
2510-15MERMCKMERMCKAttack errMolly Rohde+2.2
2611-15MERMCKRIDERKillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+1.4
2711-16RIDERMERMCKServe errRider+1.7
2812-16MERMCKRIDERKillAnja Kellyset Simone Langford+1.4
2912-17RIDERMERMCKKillTamilore Afolaluset Sophia DeBonis+1.7
3013-17MERMCKRIDERKillAubrey Bakerset Makenna Mason+1.3
3113-18RIDERMERMCKKillKaitlyn Oxceusset Devon Lowe+1.7
3214-18MERMCKRIDERKillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+1.3
3315-18RIDERRIDERAceRideraced Sienna Franks+2.2
3415-19RIDERMERMCKKillMaiella Blandinset Ella Maldonado+2.3
3516-19MERMCKRIDERKillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+1.7
3617-19RIDERRIDERAceRideraced Ella Maldonado+3.0
3717-20RIDERMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Devon Lowe+3.0
3818-20MERMCKRIDERAttack errJocelyn Hammerstrand+2.4
3918-21RIDERMERMCKKillSophia DeBonis+3.2
4018-22MERMCKMERMCKAttack errAubrey Baker+2.9
4119-22MERMCKRIDERKillMolly Rohdeset Makenna Mason+1.4
4219-23RIDERMERMCKKillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+2.3
4320-23MERMCKRIDER×3KillAubrey Bakerset Makenna Mason+1.1
4421-23RIDERRIDER×3KillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+2.6
4522-23RIDERRIDER×3KillAubrey Bakerset Makenna Mason+4.6
4622-24RIDERMERMCKAttack errTori Bonacci+5.8
4723-24MERMCKRIDERKillAubrey Bakerset Simone Langford+3.4
4823-25RIDERMERMCKKillTamilore Afolaluset Devon Lowe+7.7
Set 2
11-0RIDERRIDERKillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+2.3
21-1RIDERMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Sophia DeBonis+1.8
32-1MERMCKRIDER×3KillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+1.9
43-1RIDERRIDER×3Attack errTamilore Afolalu+2.4
54-1RIDERRIDER×3KillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+2.3
64-2RIDERMERMCKServe errRider+1.7
75-2MERMCKRIDERKillAubrey Bakerset Makenna Mason+1.9
86-2RIDERRIDERBad setKaitlyn Oxceus+2.2
96-3RIDERMERMCKKillSophia DeBonis+1.6
107-3MERMCKRIDER×4Serve errMerrimack+1.8
118-3RIDERRIDER×4AceRider+2.1
129-3RIDERRIDER×4KillRylah Robinsonset Devon Lowe+1.8
1310-3RIDERRIDER×4KillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+1.5
1410-4RIDERMERMCKKillTamilore Afolaluset Devon Lowe+1.0
1510-5MERMCKMERMCKAttack errRylah Robinson+1.5
1611-5MERMCKRIDERKillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+1.5
1711-6RIDERMERMCK×4Bad setMolly Rohde+1.2
1811-7MERMCKMERMCK×4BlockedRylah Robinsonblk Mia Izzo, Maiella Blandin+1.8
1911-8MERMCKMERMCK×4Attack errAnja Kelly+2.2
2011-9MERMCKMERMCK×4AceMerrimackaced Carly Allen+2.5
2112-9MERMCKRIDER×3Serve errMerrimack+2.3
2213-9RIDERRIDER×3BlockedMckenna Shotwellblk Molly Rohde, Anja Kelly+2.6
2314-9RIDERRIDER×3KillMolly Rohdeset Devon Lowe+2.2
2414-10RIDERMERMCKServe errRider+1.4
2515-10MERMCKRIDERKillAubrey Bakerset Makenna Mason+1.8
2615-11RIDERMERMCKBlockedAubrey Bakerblk Mia Izzo, Jocelyn Hammerstrand+1.4
2716-11MERMCKRIDERBlockedJocelyn Hammerstrandblk Aubrey Baker, Tori Bonacci+1.8
2816-12RIDERMERMCKAttack errTori Bonacci+1.4
2917-12MERMCKRIDERAttack errJocelyn Hammerstrand+1.8
3017-13RIDERMERMCKKillTamilore Afolaluset Sophia DeBonis+1.4
3118-13MERMCKRIDERKillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+1.8
3219-13RIDERRIDERAceRider+1.7
3319-14RIDERMERMCKKillTamilore Afolaluset Devon Lowe+0.9
3420-14MERMCKRIDER×3KillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+1.3
3521-14RIDERRIDER×3Attack errMckenna Shotwell+1.0
3622-14RIDERRIDER×3Attack errMaiella Blandin+0.5
3722-15RIDERMERMCKKillFabiola Betancourtset Devon Lowe+0.1
3823-15MERMCKRIDERKillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+0.3
3923-16RIDERMERMCKAttack errAnja Kelly+0.1
4024-16MERMCKRIDERServe errMerrimack+0.2
4125-16RIDERRIDERAceRideraced Fabiola Betancourt·
Set 3
10-1MERMCKMERMCKAttack errAubrey Baker+3.2
20-2MERMCKMERMCKKillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+3.1
31-2MERMCKRIDERKillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+2.5
42-2RIDERRIDERAceRider+3.2
52-3RIDERMERMCKKillTamilore Afolaluset Sophia DeBonis+2.6
63-3MERMCKRIDERKillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+2.7
73-4RIDERMERMCKKillTamilore Afolaluset Sophia DeBonis+2.7
83-5MERMCKMERMCKKillMaiella Blandinset Devon Lowe+3.4
94-5MERMCKRIDERBad setKaitlyn Oxceus+2.6
105-5RIDERRIDERKillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+3.5
115-6RIDERMERMCKServe errRider+2.8
126-6MERMCKRIDERKillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+2.9
136-7RIDERMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Devon Lowe+2.9
147-7MERMCKRIDER×6KillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+2.9
158-7RIDERRIDER×6BlockedMaiella Blandinblk Makenna Mason, Rylah Robinson+3.8
169-7RIDERRIDER×6AceRideraced Sienna Franks+3.8
1710-7RIDERRIDER×6KillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+3.7
1811-7RIDERRIDER×6KillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+3.4
1912-7RIDERRIDER×6KillRylah Robinsonset Carly Allen+3.0
2012-8RIDERMERMCKKillMaiella Blandinset Devon Lowe+2.0
2113-8MERMCKRIDERKillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+2.4
2213-9RIDERMERMCKServe errRider+2.0
2314-9MERMCKRIDERKillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+2.5
2415-9RIDERRIDERBlockedJocelyn Hammerstrandblk Tori Bonacci, Aubrey Baker+2.5
2515-10RIDERMERMCKKillTamilore Afolaluset Sophia DeBonis+1.5
2616-10MERMCKRIDERKillAubrey Bakerset Makenna Mason+2.0
2716-11RIDERMERMCKServe errRider+1.4
2817-11MERMCKRIDERKillAubrey Bakerset Makenna Mason+2.0
2918-11RIDERRIDERKillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+1.7
3018-12RIDERMERMCKKillMaiella Blandinset Devon Lowe+0.9
3119-12MERMCKRIDERKillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+1.3
3219-13RIDERMERMCK×4Serve errRider+0.8
3319-14MERMCKMERMCK×4Attack errRylah Robinson+1.5
3419-15MERMCKMERMCK×4Attack errRylah Robinson+2.2
3519-16MERMCKMERMCK×4Attack errRylah Robinson+3.0
3620-16MERMCKRIDERKillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+3.3
3720-17RIDERMERMCKKillMia Izzoset Devon Lowe+2.3
3821-17MERMCKRIDER×3KillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+3.3
3922-17RIDERRIDER×3KillMolly Rohdeset Sophia DeBonis+2.8
4023-17RIDERRIDER×3BlockedJocelyn Hammerstrandblk Aubrey Baker, Molly Rohde+1.5
4123-18RIDERMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Sophia DeBonis+0.4
4224-18MERMCKRIDERKillMolly Rohdeset Makenna Mason+0.9
4325-18RIDERRIDERBlockedJocelyn Hammerstrandblk Aubrey Baker, Tori Bonacci+0.2
Set 4
11-0RIDERRIDERKillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+3.3
21-1RIDERMERMCK×3KillMia Izzoset Ella Maldonado+2.6
31-2MERMCKMERMCK×3Attack errAnja Kelly+3.3
41-3MERMCKMERMCK×3KillAvry Bryantset Sophia DeBonis+3.3
52-3MERMCKRIDERServe errMckenna Shotwell+2.6
62-4RIDERMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Sophia DeBonis+2.7
73-4MERMCKRIDERKillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+2.6
84-4RIDERRIDERBlockedAvry Bryantblk Rylah Robinson, Tori Bonacci+3.5
94-5RIDERMERMCKKillTamilore Afolaluset Sophia DeBonis+2.9
104-6MERMCKMERMCKAceDevon Loweaced Katie Cook+3.5
115-6MERMCKRIDERKillTori Bonacciset Makenna Mason+2.7
126-6RIDERRIDERKillRylah Robinsonset Carly Allen+3.7
136-7RIDERMERMCK×3KillMckenna Shotwellset Devon Lowe+3.0
146-8MERMCKMERMCK×3KillMckenna Shotwellset Devon Lowe+3.7
156-9MERMCKMERMCK×3BlockedRylah Robinsonblk Kaitlyn Oxceus, Maiella Blandin+3.6
167-9MERMCKRIDER×3KillRylah Robinsonset Makenna Mason+2.6
178-9RIDERRIDER×3AceMakenna Mason+3.7
189-9RIDERRIDER×3KillSimone Langfordset Devon Lowe+4.0
199-10RIDERMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Ella Maldonado+3.3
2010-10MERMCKRIDERKillMolly Rohdeset Makenna Mason+3.3
2110-11RIDERMERMCKServe errRider+3.4
2210-12MERMCKMERMCKBlockedAnja Kellyblk Mckenna Shotwell, Mia Izzo+4.2
2311-12MERMCKRIDERKillAnja Kellyset Simone Langford+3.2
2412-12RIDERRIDERKillAnja Kellyset Carly Allen+4.4
2512-13RIDERMERMCKAttack errTori Bonacci+3.7
2613-13MERMCKRIDERKillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+3.7
2714-13RIDERRIDERAttack errTamilore Afolalu+4.9
2814-14RIDERMERMCKKillAvry Bryantset Sophia DeBonis+3.8
2915-14MERMCKRIDERServe errMia Izzo+4.1
3015-15RIDERMERMCKKillTamilore Afolaluset Ella Maldonado+4.0
3116-15MERMCKRIDERServe errMerrimack+4.3
3216-16RIDERMERMCKKillMaiella Blandinset Devon Lowe+4.2
3317-16MERMCKRIDER×5Serve errMerrimack+4.5
3418-16RIDERRIDER×5Attack errKaitlyn Oxceus+5.7
3519-16RIDERRIDER×5Attack errMckenna Shotwell+5.2
3620-16RIDERRIDER×5KillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+4.3
3721-16RIDERRIDER×5Attack errMckenna Shotwell+3.1
3821-17RIDERMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Devon Lowe+1.5
3922-17MERMCKRIDER×4KillAnja Kellyset Makenna Mason+2.3
4023-17RIDERRIDER×4Attack errMaiella Blandin+1.5
4124-17RIDERRIDER×4KillAubrey Bakerset Aubrey Baker+0.6
4225-17RIDERRIDER×4KillAubrey Bakerset Makenna Mason+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Rider first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).