Final · 4 setsTue, Oct 6, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Miami (OH) def. Ball St. 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Ball St. 80.2% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 6, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Miami (OH) won at Ball St. 3-1 (25-16, 19-25, 25-18, 25-20) on Tue, Oct 6, 2026. Miami (OH)'s Molly Creech led with 20 kills, and Rachel Morgan added 20 digs.

Data through · final Oct 6

Set1234Sets
MIA OH251925253
BALLST162518201

Match story · written from the play-by-play

.391 on 46 swings: Molly Creech and Miami (OH) edged Ball St.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are Miami (OH)'s RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Pre-match, Ball St. was RallyIQ's 80% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 3 · Miami (OH) 10–6 Ball St.

    Down 6–10, Ball St. scored 5 straight to lead 11–10.

    Miami (OH) 40% → 24%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Miami (OH) 3–4 Ball St.

    Miami (OH) scored 4 straight to turn a 3–4 deficit into a 7–4 lead.

    Miami (OH) 53% → 71%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · Miami (OH) 13–11 Ball St.

    4 straight Miami (OH) points stretched a 13–11 lead to 17–11.

    Miami (OH) 72% → 93%

Ball St. above 50Miami (OH) belowMax swing 6.2%

Miami (OH)Ball St.

Sideout %
Miami (OH) 66.3·Ball St. 55.9
Break %
Miami (OH) 44.1·Ball St. 33.8
Hitting
Miami (OH) .257·Ball St. .222
Longest run
Miami (OH) 4·Ball St. 5

Molly Creech
5 of her kills came in the stretches above. 20 K, .391, 21 points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Ball St. above 50 · Miami (OH) below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+6.2% MIA OHrally 173 · set 4

Biggest swing: 6.2% to Miami (OH) — set 4, MIA OH 15-11 BALLST. Miami (OH) ace on Mallory Pike. BALLST win probability 23% → 17%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MIA OH 30.6%69.4% BALLST

Miami (OH) wins

3-0
5.9%
3-1
10.8%
3-2
14.0%

Ball St. wins

3-0
22.8%
3-1
26.6%
3-2
19.9%
MIA OH break %
38.1% vs this opp
BALLST break %
41.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Miami (OH)Ace+6.2%

    Miami (OH) ace on Mallory Pike

    Set 4 · MIA OH 15-11 BALLST · MIA OH 77% → 83%

  2. 02
    Miami (OH)Ace+6.0%

    Miami (OH) ace on Elizabeth Tabeling

    Set 4 · MIA OH 12-9 BALLST · MIA OH 69% → 75%

  3. 03
    Ava SmithAttack error+5.6%

    Attack error by Ava Smith

    Set 3 · MIA OH 18-16 BALLST · MIA OH 33% → 38%

  4. 04

    Ava Smith stuffed by Lydia Michelin & Chelsea Williams

    Set 3 · MIA OH 19-16 BALLST · MIA OH 38% → 44%

  5. 05
    Molly CreechKill+5.4%

    Kill by Molly Creech (set by Holland Van Deusen)

    Set 4 · MIA OH 16-11 BALLST · MIA OH 83% → 88%

  6. 06
    Madison BuckleyAttack error+5.3%

    Attack error by Madison Buckley

    Set 4 · MIA OH 20-15 BALLST · MIA OH 88% → 93%

  7. 07
    Molly CreechKill+5.2%

    Kill by Molly Creech (set by Rachel Morgan)

    Set 4 · MIA OH 7-4 BALLST · MIA OH 66% → 71%

  8. 08
    Audrey GeerAttack error+5.0%

    Attack error by Audrey Geer

    Set 4 · MIA OH 6-4 BALLST · MIA OH 61% → 66%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
420246.39110013002121
48436.11112013202111
46822-.091000300428
4218.12500010094.56.5
4409.444200400215
4204.50020301000005
414227.44400010031.515.5
4000–2112500001
4000–9122010001
Team totals5617152.25754747030221194
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
411740.10001154052.514.5
411020.55000120132.513.5
411323.34800080111.512.5
411740.1000102000012
43213.077002100425
4000–22121000001
46212.33300010010.56.5
41011.000602310001
4000–001100000
4000–2401400000
4000–2002910000
2104.250000110001
Team totals5521153.22254310677214979

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Miami (OH) vs Ball St.

Season series · Miami (OH) leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 MIA OH · BALLST 5

Set 1

25-16

Longest run 4 MIA OHBALLST 4

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 3 MIA OHBALLST 4

Set 3

25-18

Longest run 4 MIA OHBALLST 5

Set 4

25-20

Longest run 4 MIA OHBALLST 3

Bars above the line = Ball St. leads, below = Miami (OH) leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Miami (OH)

SlotSideout %Break %
1
48%11/23
53%10/19
2
75%9/12
44%8/18
3
82%9/11
53%10/19
4
53%8/15
27%3/11
5
100%8/8
50%8/16
6
73%8/11
20%2/10
All
66%53/80
44%41/93

Ball St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
45%10/22
47%8/17
2
67%10/15
33%5/15
3
50%9/18
31%4/13
4
67%8/12
18%2/11
5
57%8/14
43%6/14
6
58%7/12
20%2/10
All
56%52/93
34%27/80

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

173 rallies

#MIA OH-BALLSTSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0BALLSTMIA OH×4KillLauren Coyneset Holland Van Deusen+1.3
22-0MIA OHMIA OH×4KillHolland Van Deusenset Grace Kreutz+2.0
33-0MIA OHMIA OH×4Attack errAudrey Geer+2.1
44-0MIA OHMIA OH×4BlockedAudrey Geerblk Lydia Michelin, Lauren Coyne+2.1
54-1MIA OHBALLSTAttack errLauren Coyne+1.3
65-1BALLSTMIA OH×4Serve errBall St.+1.6
76-1MIA OHMIA OH×4BlockedAudrey Geerblk Raegan Lantz, Molly Creech+2.1
87-1MIA OHMIA OH×4Attack errGwen Crull+2.0
98-1MIA OHMIA OH×4KillHolland Van Deusenset Raegan Lantz+1.8
108-2MIA OHBALLSTKillAva Smithset Lindsey Green+0.9
119-2BALLSTMIA OH×3Serve errBall St.+1.3
1210-2MIA OHMIA OH×3BlockedAva Smithblk Raegan Lantz, Chelsea Williams+1.5
1311-2MIA OHMIA OH×3AceMiami (OH)aced Audrey Geer+1.2
1411-3MIA OHBALLSTKillCamryn Wiseset Lindsey Green+0.6
1512-3BALLSTMIA OHKillChelsea Williamsset Molly Creech+0.8
1612-4MIA OHBALLSTKillAva Smithset Reese Axness+0.5
1713-4BALLSTMIA OHKillChelsea Williamsset Kamryn Utley+0.8
1813-5MIA OHBALLSTKillMadison Buckleyset Reese Axness+0.5
1913-6BALLSTBALLSTBlockedChelsea Williamsblk Audrey Geer, Gwen Crull+1.0
2014-6BALLSTMIA OH×3KillGrace Kreutzset Kamryn Utley+1.0
2115-6MIA OHMIA OH×3BlockedMadison Buckleyblk Grace Kreutz, Lydia Michelin+1.0
2216-6MIA OHMIA OH×3KillGrace Kreutzset Rachel Morgan+0.7
2316-7MIA OHBALLST×4KillAudrey Geerset Reese Axness+0.3
2416-8BALLSTBALLST×4AceBall St.aced Grace Kreutz+0.5
2516-9BALLSTBALLST×4Attack errMolly Creech+0.8
2616-10BALLSTBALLST×4BlockedLauren Coyneblk Audrey Geer, Gwen Crull+1.0
2717-10BALLSTMIA OH×3KillGrace Kreutzset Holland Van Deusen+1.1
2818-10MIA OHMIA OH×3KillMolly Creechset Rachel Morgan+1.1
2919-10MIA OHMIA OH×3Attack errAudrey Geer+0.6
3019-11MIA OHBALLSTKillTiffany Snookset Lindsey Green+0.2
3120-11BALLSTMIA OHAttack errAva Smith+0.4
3220-12MIA OHBALLSTServe errMiami (OH)+0.2
3321-12BALLSTMIA OHServe errBall St.+0.3
3422-12MIA OHMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Kamryn Utley+0.2
3522-13MIA OHBALLSTKillCamryn Wiseset Lindsey Green·
3622-14BALLSTBALLSTKillCamryn Wiseset Reese Axness+0.1
3723-14BALLSTMIA OHKillChelsea Williamsset Kamryn Utley+0.1
3823-15MIA OHBALLSTKillAva Smithset Reese Axness·
3924-15BALLSTMIA OHKillChelsea Williamsset Kamryn Utley+0.1
4024-16MIA OHBALLSTAttack errGrace Kreutz·
4125-16BALLSTMIA OHKillChelsea Williamsset Kamryn Utley·
Set 2
11-0MIA OHMIA OHBlockedTiffany Snookblk Grace Kreutz, Lydia Michelin+2.9
22-0MIA OHMIA OHBlockedAva Smithblk Lydia Michelin, Lauren Coyne+3.1
32-1MIA OHBALLST×3KillCamryn Wiseset Lindsey Green+2.0
42-2BALLSTBALLST×3BlockedLauren Coyneblk Audrey Geer, Camryn Wise+2.9
52-3BALLSTBALLST×3AceBall St.aced Rachel Morgan+2.7
63-3BALLSTMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Holland Van Deusen+2.0
73-4MIA OHBALLSTKillCamryn Wiseset Lindsey Green+1.9
84-4BALLSTMIA OHKillMolly Creech+2.1
94-5MIA OHBALLSTServe errMiami (OH)+2.0
105-5BALLSTMIA OHKillGrace Kreutzset Holland Van Deusen+2.1
115-6MIA OHBALLSTKillGwen Crullset Reese Axness+2.0
126-6BALLSTMIA OHKillChelsea Williamsset Kamryn Utley+2.2
137-6MIA OHMIA OHKillChelsea Williamsset Kamryn Utley+3.4
147-7MIA OHBALLSTKillMadison Buckleyset Reese Axness+2.3
158-7BALLSTMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Kamryn Utley+2.5
168-8MIA OHBALLSTKillAva Smithset Reese Axness+2.3
179-8BALLSTMIA OHServe errBall St.+2.6
189-9MIA OHBALLSTAttack errLauren Coyne+2.4
199-10BALLSTBALLSTBlockedLydia Michelinblk Camryn Wise+3.4
2010-10BALLSTMIA OHServe errBall St.+2.5
2111-10MIA OHMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Holland Van Deusen+3.9
2211-11MIA OHBALLSTKillTiffany Snookset Lindsey Green+2.6
2311-12BALLSTBALLSTKillAudrey Geerset Elizabeth Tabeling+3.6
2412-12BALLSTMIA OHServe errBall St.+2.7
2512-13MIA OHBALLSTKillTiffany Snookset Lindsey Green+2.6
2612-14BALLSTBALLSTKillElizabeth Tabelingset Holland Van Deusen+3.5
2713-14BALLSTMIA OHServe errBall St.+2.4
2813-15MIA OHBALLST×4KillAudrey Geerset Reese Axness+2.5
2913-16BALLSTBALLST×4KillAva Smithset Reese Axness+3.1
3013-17BALLSTBALLST×4KillAva Smithset Reese Axness+2.4
3113-18BALLSTBALLST×4AceBall St.aced Grace Kreutz+1.7
3214-18BALLSTMIA OH×3KillMolly Creechset Kamryn Utley+0.9
3315-18MIA OHMIA OH×3KillGrace Kreutzset Rachel Morgan+1.9
3416-18MIA OHMIA OH×3KillGrace Kreutzset Kamryn Utley+2.8
3516-19MIA OHBALLSTKillGwen Crullset Reese Axness+2.4
3617-19BALLSTMIA OHKillRaegan Lantzset Kamryn Utley+2.0
3717-20MIA OHBALLSTKillAva Smithset Reese Axness+2.5
3817-21BALLSTBALLSTAttack errGrace Kreutz+2.5
3918-21BALLSTMIA OHBlockedAva Smithblk Chelsea Williams, Lydia Michelin+1.2
4018-22MIA OHBALLST×3KillTiffany Snookset Lindsey Green+1.7
4118-23BALLSTBALLST×3BlockedGrace Kreutzblk Tiffany Snook+1.3
4218-24BALLSTBALLST×3KillAudrey Geerset Elizabeth Tabeling+0.4
4319-24BALLSTMIA OHBlockedAudrey Geerblk Lauren Coyne, Lydia Michelin+0.1
4419-25MIA OHBALLSTKillTiffany Snookset Lindsey Green+0.1
Set 3
11-0BALLSTMIA OHKillLydia Michelinset Holland Van Deusen+2.1
21-1MIA OHBALLSTKillAudrey Geerset Lindsey Green+1.9
32-1BALLSTMIA OHBlockedTiffany Snookblk Molly Creech, Lydia Michelin+2.1
42-2MIA OHBALLSTKillAudrey Geerset Lindsey Green+2.0
53-2BALLSTMIA OHKillLauren Coyneset Holland Van Deusen+2.2
63-3MIA OHBALLSTKillAudrey Geerset Reese Axness+2.0
74-3BALLSTMIA OH×4KillMolly Creechset Rachel Morgan+2.2
85-3MIA OHMIA OH×4Attack errGwen Crull+3.4
96-3MIA OHMIA OH×4KillChelsea Williamsset Kamryn Utley+3.5
107-3MIA OHMIA OH×4KillRaegan Lantzset Kamryn Utley+3.5
117-4MIA OHBALLSTKillAva Smithset Reese Axness+2.1
128-4BALLSTMIA OHServe errBall St.+2.6
138-5MIA OHBALLSTKillMadison Buckleyset Reese Axness+2.1
148-6BALLSTBALLSTBlockedGrace Kreutzblk Tiffany Snook, Camryn Wise+3.3
159-6BALLSTMIA OHBlockedAva Smithblk Lydia Michelin, Lauren Coyne+2.7
1610-6MIA OHMIA OHAttack errTiffany Snook+3.8
1710-7MIA OHBALLST×5KillCamryn Wiseset Lindsey Green+2.2
1810-8BALLSTBALLST×5KillTiffany Snookset Elizabeth Tabeling+3.4
1910-9BALLSTBALLST×5KillAudrey Geerset Elizabeth Tabeling+3.6
2010-10BALLSTBALLST×5KillTiffany Snookset Elizabeth Tabeling+3.6
2110-11BALLSTBALLST×5BlockedLauren Coyneblk Audrey Geer, Camryn Wise+3.5
2211-11BALLSTMIA OHKillGrace Kreutzset Holland Van Deusen+2.6
2311-12MIA OHBALLSTKillCamryn Wiseset Lindsey Green+2.5
2412-12BALLSTMIA OHKillLauren Coyneset Holland Van Deusen+2.7
2513-12MIA OHMIA OHAttack errAudrey Geer+4.2
2613-13MIA OHBALLSTKillGwen Crullset Lindsey Green+2.8
2713-14BALLSTBALLSTAttack errLauren Coyne+4.0
2814-14BALLSTMIA OHKillRaegan Lantzset Holland Van Deusen+2.9
2914-15MIA OHBALLSTServe errMiami (OH)+2.9
3015-15BALLSTMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Kamryn Utley+3.1
3116-15MIA OHMIA OHKillChelsea Williamsset Kamryn Utley+4.9
3216-16MIA OHBALLSTKillMadison Buckleyset Reese Axness+3.3
3317-16BALLSTMIA OH×3KillChelsea Williamsset Kamryn Utley+3.8
3418-16MIA OHMIA OH×3Attack errAva Smith+5.6
3519-16MIA OHMIA OH×3BlockedAva Smithblk Lydia Michelin, Chelsea Williams+5.5
3619-17MIA OHBALLSTKillAva Smithset Reese Axness+2.9
3720-17BALLSTMIA OH×3KillChelsea Williamsset Kamryn Utley+4.2
3821-17MIA OHMIA OH×3KillLauren Coyneset Rachel Morgan+4.8
3922-17MIA OHMIA OH×3AceMiami (OH)aced Sophie Ledbetter+3.3
4022-18MIA OHBALLSTKillTiffany Snookset Sophie Ledbetter+1.1
4123-18BALLSTMIA OH×3KillMolly Creechset Grace Kreutz+2.1
4224-18MIA OHMIA OH×3AceMiami (OH)aced Audrey Geer+1.2
4325-18MIA OHMIA OH×3AceMiami (OH)aced Audrey Geer+0.3
Set 4
11-0MIA OHMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Holland Van Deusen+4.2
22-0MIA OHMIA OHAceMiami (OH)aced Audrey Geer+4.5
32-1MIA OHBALLSTKillCamryn Wiseset Lindsey Green+2.9
43-1BALLSTMIA OHKillLydia Michelinset Holland Van Deusen+3.3
53-2MIA OHBALLST×3KillCamryn Wiseset Sophie Ledbetter+3.0
63-3BALLSTBALLST×3BlockedLauren Coyneblk Audrey Geer, Gwen Crull+4.2
73-4BALLSTBALLST×3KillAudrey Geerset Lindsey Green+4.0
84-4BALLSTMIA OH×4KillLauren Coyneset Holland Van Deusen+3.0
95-4MIA OHMIA OH×4KillMolly Creechset Holland Van Deusen+4.6
106-4MIA OHMIA OH×4Attack errAudrey Geer+5.0
117-4MIA OHMIA OH×4KillMolly Creechset Rachel Morgan+5.2
127-5MIA OHBALLSTAttack errLauren Coyne+3.2
138-5BALLSTMIA OHKillRaegan Lantzset Holland Van Deusen+3.8
148-6MIA OHBALLSTServe errMiami (OH)+3.3
158-7BALLSTBALLSTBlockedMolly Creechblk Madison Buckley, Gwen Crull+4.9
169-7BALLSTMIA OHKillChelsea Williamsset Kamryn Utley+3.9
179-8MIA OHBALLSTKillMallory Pikeset Reese Axness+3.5
1810-8BALLSTMIA OHKillChelsea Williamsset Raegan Lantz+4.1
1910-9MIA OHBALLSTKillCamryn Wiseset Reese Axness+3.6
2011-9BALLSTMIA OHServe errBall St.+4.2
2112-9MIA OHMIA OHAceMiami (OH)aced Elizabeth Tabeling+6.0
2212-10MIA OHBALLSTKillCamryn Wiseset Lindsey Green+3.6
2313-10BALLSTMIA OHKillGrace Kreutzset Rachel Morgan+4.5
2413-11MIA OHBALLSTKillTiffany Snookset Lindsey Green+3.7
2514-11BALLSTMIA OH×4KillMolly Creechset Holland Van Deusen+4.6
2615-11MIA OHMIA OH×4AceMiami (OH)aced Mallory Pike+6.2
2716-11MIA OHMIA OH×4KillMolly Creechset Holland Van Deusen+5.4
2817-11MIA OHMIA OH×4KillMolly Creechset Rachel Morgan+4.4
2917-12MIA OHBALLSTKillAudrey Geerset Lindsey Green+2.0
3018-12BALLSTMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Holland Van Deusen+3.1
3118-13MIA OHBALLST×3KillMadison Buckleyset Reese Axness+1.8
3218-14BALLSTBALLST×3KillMadison Buckleyset Reese Axness+3.7
3318-15BALLSTBALLST×3Attack errChelsea Williams+4.8
3419-15BALLSTMIA OHServe errBall St.+4.9
3520-15MIA OHMIA OHAttack errMadison Buckley+5.3
3620-16MIA OHBALLSTKillAva Smithset Reese Axness+2.2
3721-16BALLSTMIA OHKillChelsea Williamsset Kamryn Utley+3.7
3821-17MIA OHBALLSTKillAva Smithset Reese Axness+1.9
3922-17BALLSTMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Kamryn Utley+3.4
4022-18MIA OHBALLSTKillTiffany Snookset Elizabeth Tabeling+1.5
4123-18BALLSTMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Rachel Morgan+3.0
4223-19MIA OHBALLSTKillTiffany Snookset Lindsey Green+1.1
4324-19BALLSTMIA OHKillLauren Coyneset Holland Van Deusen+2.4
4424-20MIA OHBALLSTKillAudrey Geerset Lindsey Green+0.5
4525-20BALLSTMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Holland Van Deusen+1.3

Score shown after each rally, Miami (OH) first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).