Final · 4 setsSat, Aug 29, 2026 · Neutral site

Stetson def. Merrimack 3–1

Stetson beat Merrimack 3-1 (25-18, 24-26, 25-16, 25-22) on Sat, Aug 29, 2026 at a neutral site. Stetson's Andrea Diaz Dominguez led with 15 kills.

Data through · final Aug 29

Set1234Sets
STETSN252425253
MERMCK182616221

Win probability

Merrimack above 50 · Stetson below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+6.0% MERMCKrally 181 · set 4

Biggest swing: 6.0% to Merrimack — set 2, STETSN 24-26 MERMCK. Kill by Jocelyn Hammerstrand (set by Sophia DeBonis). MERMCK win probability 15% → 21%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

STETSN 85.0%15.0% MERMCK

Stetson wins

3-0
37.1%
3-1
31.3%
3-2
16.6%

Merrimack wins

3-0
2.2%
3-1
4.8%
3-2
8.0%
STETSN break %
50.3% vs this opp
MERMCK break %
42.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Kill by Jocelyn Hammerstrand (set by Sophia DeBonis)

    Set 2 · STETSN 24-26 MERMCK · MERMCK 15% → 21%

  2. 02
    Natalia ZelubowskiAttack error+5.2%

    Attack error by Natalia Zelubowski

    Set 2 · STETSN 24-24 MERMCK · STETSN 84% → 89%

  3. 03
    StetsonService error+4.4%

    Stetson service error

    Set 2 · STETSN 24-25 MERMCK · MERMCK 11% → 15%

  4. 04

    Kill by Sophia DeBonis (set by Maddy Fennessy)

    Set 2 · STETSN 22-24 MERMCK · MERMCK 14% → 18%

  5. 05

    Kill by Vanessa Shevchenko (set by Maia Keely Pou)

    Set 4 · STETSN 18-18 MERMCK · STETSN 84% → 88%

  6. 06
    Maiella BlandinAttack error+3.5%

    Attack error by Maiella Blandin

    Set 4 · STETSN 19-18 MERMCK · STETSN 88% → 91%

  7. 07

    Kill by Mckenna Shotwell (set by Elizabeth Kenney)

    Set 4 · STETSN 16-18 MERMCK · MERMCK 15% → 19%

  8. 08
    Andrea Diaz DominguezAttack error+3.2%

    Attack error by Andrea Diaz Dominguez

    Set 4 · STETSN 12-15 MERMCK · MERMCK 17% → 20%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415641.22023226100018
412124.4580008004214
410423.2610002024414
48225.24000310304210
44011.36410110073.57.5
44312.08323011000215
44010.40000000010.54.5
4001.0001311500001
4001.0007001610000
3000–403410000
1000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals5716148.277504118272221399
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414042.3330000004216
411640.12510417000011
4105.2002021500003
33213.077000001225
24418.000000010004
2205.40000230010.52.5
4000–030000003
4002.0000011700000
3406.66700130111.55.5
32617-.235100200002
3001.0001121200002
3011-1.000600200000
3000–001520000
23415-.067000210003
1112.000000000001
1002.000000000000
1000–101200000
Team totals4524169.1244071260428682

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 STETSN · MERMCK 5

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 5 STETSNMERMCK 5

Set 2

24-26

Longest run 4 STETSNMERMCK 4

Set 3

25-16

Longest run 6 STETSNMERMCK 3

Set 4

25-22

Longest run 5 STETSNMERMCK 4

Bars above the line = Merrimack leads, below = Stetson leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Stetson

SlotSideout %Break %
1
53%10/19
53%9/17
2
42%8/19
40%6/15
3
80%8/10
50%8/16
4
62%8/13
38%5/13
5
78%7/9
65%13/20
6
54%7/13
59%10/17
All
58%48/83
52%51/98

Merrimack

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%10/20
53%9/17
2
60%9/15
50%10/20
3
62%8/13
47%7/15
4
39%7/18
33%4/12
5
32%7/22
22%2/9
6
60%6/10
30%3/10
All
48%47/98
42%35/83

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

181 rallies

#STETSN-MERMCKSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1MERMCKMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwell+1.4
20-2MERMCKMERMCKAttack errKayla Balfour+1.6
31-2MERMCKSTETSN×4KillKayla Balfourset Vanessa Shevchenko+1.2
42-2STETSNSTETSN×4KillLelia Fitzset Lelia Fitz+1.4
53-2STETSNSTETSN×4KillAndrea Diaz Dominguezset Vitoria Stedile+1.3
64-2STETSNSTETSN×4KillMaria Ozaetaset Vitoria Stedile+1.2
74-3STETSNMERMCK×5Serve errStetson+1.1
84-4MERMCKMERMCK×5KillTamilore Afolalu+1.4
94-5MERMCKMERMCK×5KillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Kayla Balfour+1.6
104-6MERMCKMERMCK×5Attack errKayla Balfour+1.8
114-7MERMCKMERMCK×5KillMia Izzoset Vanessa Shevchenko+1.9
125-7MERMCKSTETSN×3KillLelia Fitzset Vanessa Shevchenko+1.4
136-7STETSNSTETSN×3BlockedTamilore Afolalublk Lelia Fitz, Sofia Torcello+1.7
147-7STETSNSTETSN×3Attack errMckenna Shotwell+1.6
157-8STETSNMERMCKServe errStetson+1.6
168-8MERMCKSTETSNKillAndrea Diaz Dominguezset Vanessa Shevchenko+1.4
179-8STETSNSTETSNBlockedTamilore Afolalublk Vanessa Shevchenko, Sofia Torcello+1.6
189-9STETSNMERMCKKillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+1.5
1910-9MERMCKSTETSNKillVanessa Shevchenkoset Vitoria Stedile+1.4
2011-9STETSNSTETSNAttack errMckenna Shotwell+1.5
2111-10STETSNMERMCKKillMaiella Blandinset Devon Lowe+1.4
2212-10MERMCKSTETSN×5KillVanessa Shevchenkoset Maia Keely Pou+1.4
2313-10STETSNSTETSN×5BlockedMaiella Blandinblk Kayla Balfour, Maria Ozaeta+1.4
2414-10STETSNSTETSN×5KillKayla Balfourset Devon Lowe+1.2
2515-10STETSNSTETSN×5KillMaria Ozaetaset Maia Keely Pou+0.9
2616-10STETSNSTETSN×5Attack errMaiella Blandin+0.7
2716-11STETSNMERMCKAttack errVanessa Shevchenko+0.5
2816-12MERMCKMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Devon Lowe+0.8
2917-12MERMCKSTETSN×4Serve errMerrimack+0.8
3018-12STETSNSTETSN×4KillKayla Balfourset Vanessa Shevchenko+0.7
3119-12STETSNSTETSN×4BlockedMaiella Blandinblk Kayla Balfour, Maria Ozaeta+0.4
3220-12STETSNSTETSN×4KillKayla Balfourset Ella Maldonado+0.2
3320-13STETSNMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Devon Lowe+0.1
3420-14MERMCKMERMCKAceMerrimackaced Vitoria Stedile+0.2
3521-14MERMCKSTETSNKillKayla Balfourset Vanessa Shevchenko+0.3
3621-15STETSNMERMCKAttack errAndrea Diaz Dominguez+0.2
3722-15MERMCKSTETSNServe errMerrimack+0.3
3823-15STETSNSTETSNKillAndrea Diaz Dominguezset Vanessa Shevchenko+0.1
3923-16STETSNMERMCKServe errStetson·
4024-16MERMCKSTETSNKillAndrea Diaz Dominguezset Vanessa Shevchenko+0.1
4124-17STETSNMERMCKKillNaomi Vajdaset Sophia DeBonis·
4224-18MERMCKMERMCKKillMaiella Blandinset Devon Lowe·
4325-18MERMCKSTETSNKillMaria Ozaetaset Vitoria Stedile+0.1
Set 2
10-1STETSNMERMCK×4KillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+0.9
20-2MERMCKMERMCK×4KillNatalia Zelubowskiset Mckenna Shotwell+1.1
30-3MERMCKMERMCK×4BlockedMaria Ozaetablk Jocelyn Hammerstrand, Mia Izzo+1.2
40-4MERMCKMERMCK×4KillNatalia Zelubowskiset Sophia DeBonis+1.3
51-4MERMCKSTETSNServe errMerrimack+0.9
61-5STETSNMERMCK×3Serve errStetson+1.1
71-6MERMCKMERMCK×3AceMerrimackaced Andrea Diaz Dominguez+1.3
81-7MERMCKMERMCK×3BlockedAndrea Diaz Dominguezblk Kaitlyn Oxceus, Jocelyn Hammerstrand+1.3
92-7MERMCKSTETSNKillAndrea Diaz Dominguezset Vanessa Shevchenko+0.9
103-7STETSNSTETSNKillAndrea Diaz Dominguezset Sofia Torcello+1.1
113-8STETSNMERMCKServe errStetson+1.2
124-8MERMCKSTETSNKillLelia Fitzset Vanessa Shevchenko+1.0
135-8STETSNSTETSNAttack errMckenna Shotwell+1.2
145-9STETSNMERMCK×3KillKaitlyn Oxceusset Elizabeth Kenney+1.3
155-10MERMCKMERMCK×3KillMckenna Shotwellset Elizabeth Kenney+1.4
165-11MERMCKMERMCK×3Attack errVanessa Shevchenko+1.3
176-11MERMCKSTETSNAttack errAvry Bryant+0.9
186-12STETSNMERMCKAttack errVanessa Shevchenko+1.2
197-12MERMCKSTETSNServe errMerrimack+0.9
207-13STETSNMERMCK×3KillMckenna Shotwellset Elizabeth Kenney+1.2
217-14MERMCKMERMCK×3Attack errKayla Balfour+1.2
227-15MERMCKMERMCK×3KillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+1.0
238-15MERMCKSTETSN×3KillSoraya Testonset Maia Keely Pou+0.6
249-15STETSNSTETSN×3KillAndrea Diaz Dominguezset Vanessa Shevchenko+0.8
2510-15STETSNSTETSN×3KillKayla Balfourset Vanessa Shevchenko+1.0
2610-16STETSNMERMCKKillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+1.2
2711-16MERMCKSTETSNKillLelia Fitzset Vanessa Shevchenko+0.8
2812-16STETSNSTETSNKillLelia Fitzset Vanessa Shevchenko+1.2
2912-17STETSNMERMCKKillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+1.4
3013-17MERMCKSTETSNKillAndrea Diaz Dominguezset Vanessa Shevchenko+1.0
3113-18STETSNMERMCKKillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+1.4
3213-19MERMCKMERMCKAceMerrimackaced Maria Ozaeta+1.3
3314-19MERMCKSTETSN×3Serve errMerrimack+0.7
3415-19STETSNSTETSN×3KillAndrea Diaz Dominguezset Jannelize Perez+1.1
3516-19STETSNSTETSN×3Serve errStetson+1.4
3616-20STETSNMERMCKServe errStetson+1.7
3717-20MERMCKSTETSNServe errMerrimack+1.2
3817-21STETSNMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Elizabeth Kenney+1.8
3917-22MERMCKMERMCKKillAvry Bryantset Elizabeth Kenney+1.6
4018-22MERMCKSTETSNKillSofia Torcelloset Maia Keely Pou+0.7
4118-23STETSNMERMCKKillMia Izzoset Elizabeth Kenney+1.3
4219-23MERMCKSTETSN×4KillSoraya Testonset Maia Keely Pou+0.5
4320-23STETSNSTETSN×4KillMaria Ozaetaset Jannelize Perez+1.0
4421-23STETSNSTETSN×4BlockedMia Izzoblk Kayla Balfour+1.7
4522-23STETSNSTETSN×4KillMaria Ozaetaset Vanessa Shevchenko+2.6
4622-24STETSNMERMCKKillSophia DeBonisset Maddy Fennessy+3.7
4723-24MERMCKSTETSNBlockedNatalia Zelubowskiblk Kayla Balfour, Lelia Fitz+2.2
4824-24STETSNSTETSNAttack errNatalia Zelubowski+5.2
4924-25STETSNMERMCKServe errStetson+4.4
5024-26MERMCKMERMCKKillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+6.0
Set 3
10-1MERMCKMERMCKBlockedKayla Balfourblk Mia Izzo+2.4
21-1MERMCKSTETSNServe errMerrimack+1.9
31-2STETSNMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Sophia DeBonis+2.1
41-3MERMCKMERMCKAttack errAndrea Diaz Dominguez+2.7
52-3MERMCKSTETSNKillLelia Fitzset Vanessa Shevchenko+2.1
62-4STETSNMERMCKKillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+2.4
73-4MERMCKSTETSNKillLelia Fitzset Vanessa Shevchenko+2.2
83-5STETSNMERMCKKillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+2.5
94-5MERMCKSTETSN×6KillAndrea Diaz Dominguezset Maia Keely Pou+2.2
105-5STETSNSTETSN×6AceStetsonaced Natalia Zelubowski+2.5
116-5STETSNSTETSN×6KillMaria Ozaetaset Andrea Diaz Dominguez+2.4
127-5STETSNSTETSN×6KillAndrea Diaz Dominguezset Maia Keely Pou+2.2
138-5STETSNSTETSN×6BlockedNatalia Zelubowskiblk Sofia Torcello, Maria Ozaeta+1.9
149-5STETSNSTETSN×6KillSofia Torcelloset Maia Keely Pou+1.7
159-6STETSNMERMCKServe errStetson+1.4
1610-6MERMCKSTETSN×5Serve errMerrimack+1.5
1711-6STETSNSTETSN×5Attack errDevon Lowe+1.4
1812-6STETSNSTETSN×5Bad setKaitlyn Oxceus+1.1
1913-6STETSNSTETSN×5KillSoraya Testonset Andrea Diaz Dominguez+0.8
2014-6STETSNSTETSN×5BlockedMaiella Blandinblk Kayla Balfour, Maria Ozaeta+0.6
2114-7STETSNMERMCKServe errStetson+0.4
2215-7MERMCKSTETSNKillMaria Ozaetaset Andrea Diaz Dominguez+0.5
2315-8STETSNMERMCKKillMia Izzoset Elizabeth Kenney+0.4
2416-8MERMCKSTETSNKillLelia Fitzset Vanessa Shevchenko+0.5
2517-8STETSNSTETSNKillAndrea Diaz Dominguezset Jannelize Perez+0.3
2617-9STETSNMERMCKBlockedAndrea Diaz Dominguezblk Jocelyn Hammerstrand, Mia Izzo+0.2
2718-9MERMCKSTETSNServe errMerrimack+0.3
2819-9STETSNSTETSNBlockedMia Izzoblk Lelia Fitz, Sofia Torcello+0.2
2919-10STETSNMERMCKAttack errAndrea Diaz Dominguez+0.1
3019-11MERMCKMERMCKAceMerrimack+0.2
3120-11MERMCKSTETSNBlockedNatalia Zelubowskiblk Lelia Fitz, Sofia Torcello+0.2
3220-12STETSNMERMCK×3KillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+0.1
3320-13MERMCKMERMCK×3KillNatalia Zelubowskiset Elizabeth Kenney+0.2
3420-14MERMCKMERMCK×3AceMerrimackaced Jannelize Perez+0.4
3521-14MERMCKSTETSNKillAndrea Diaz Dominguezset Jannelize Perez+0.5
3622-14STETSNSTETSNKillSoraya Testonset Jannelize Perez+0.3
3722-15STETSNMERMCKServe errStetson+0.1
3823-15MERMCKSTETSNKillMaria Ozaetaset Maia Keely Pou+0.2
3924-15STETSNSTETSNKillKayla Balfour+0.1
4024-16STETSNMERMCKKillKaitlyn Oxceusset Maiella Blandin·
4125-16MERMCKSTETSNServe errMerrimack·
Set 4
10-1STETSNMERMCKKillNaomi Vajdaset Sophia DeBonis+1.6
20-2MERMCKMERMCKBlockedLelia Fitzblk Jocelyn Hammerstrand, Naomi Vajda+2.0
31-2MERMCKSTETSNServe errMerrimack+1.6
41-3STETSNMERMCK×4KillTamilore Afolaluset Sophia DeBonis+1.8
51-4MERMCKMERMCK×4KillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+2.2
61-5MERMCKMERMCK×4KillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+2.3
71-6MERMCKMERMCK×4BlockedMaria Ozaetablk Kaitlyn Oxceus+2.3
82-6MERMCKSTETSN×4KillAndrea Diaz Dominguezset Vanessa Shevchenko+1.6
93-6STETSNSTETSN×4KillLelia Fitzset Jannelize Perez+2.0
104-6STETSNSTETSN×4Attack errTamilore Afolalu+2.1
115-6STETSNSTETSN×4Attack errTamilore Afolalu+2.1
125-7STETSNMERMCKBad setVanessa Shevchenko+2.0
136-7MERMCKSTETSNAttack errMaiella Blandin+1.8
146-8STETSNMERMCKKillTamilore Afolaluset Elizabeth Kenney+2.1
157-8MERMCKSTETSN×3KillSofia Torcelloset Maia Keely Pou+1.9
168-8STETSNSTETSN×3AceStetsonaced Sienna Franks+2.1
179-8STETSNSTETSN×3AceStetsonaced Sienna Franks+2.0
189-9STETSNMERMCKBad setMaia Keely Pou+1.9
199-10MERMCKMERMCKAceMerrimackaced Maria Ozaeta+2.4
2010-10MERMCKSTETSNBlockedMckenna Shotwellblk Sofia Torcello, Soraya Teston+2.0
2110-11STETSNMERMCK×3KillMckenna Shotwellset Elizabeth Kenney+2.2
2210-12MERMCKMERMCK×3KillMckenna Shotwellset Sophia DeBonis+2.8
2310-13MERMCKMERMCK×3Bad setMaia Keely Pou+2.9
2411-13MERMCKSTETSNKillKayla Balfourset Maia Keely Pou+2.1
2512-13STETSNSTETSNKillLelia Fitzset Jannelize Perez+2.6
2612-14STETSNMERMCKServe errStetson+2.7
2712-15MERMCKMERMCKAttack errAndrea Diaz Dominguez+3.2
2813-15MERMCKSTETSNKillKayla Balfourset Vanessa Shevchenko+2.3
2913-16STETSNMERMCKKillTamilore Afolaluset Sophia DeBonis+2.9
3014-16MERMCKSTETSNKillLelia Fitzset Vanessa Shevchenko+2.3
3114-17STETSNMERMCKKillKaitlyn Oxceusset Sophia DeBonis+3.0
3215-17MERMCKSTETSNKillLelia Fitzset Vanessa Shevchenko+2.4
3316-17STETSNSTETSNAceStetsonaced Tamilore Afolalu+3.1
3416-18STETSNMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Elizabeth Kenney+3.3
3517-18MERMCKSTETSN×5KillVanessa Shevchenkoset Maia Keely Pou+2.8
3618-18STETSNSTETSN×5KillVanessa Shevchenkoset Maia Keely Pou+3.5
3719-18STETSNSTETSN×5Attack errMaiella Blandin+3.5
3820-18STETSNSTETSN×5KillSofia Torcelloset Maia Keely Pou+3.1
3921-18STETSNSTETSN×5BlockedMckenna Shotwellblk Sofia Torcello, Vanessa Shevchenko+2.5
4021-19STETSNMERMCKKillKaitlyn Oxceusset Devon Lowe+1.8
4122-19MERMCKSTETSNServe errMerrimack+2.3
4223-19STETSNSTETSNKillKayla Balfour+1.7
4323-20STETSNMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Devon Lowe+0.8
4423-21MERMCKMERMCKAceMerrimackaced Maria Ozaeta+1.8
4524-21MERMCKSTETSNBlockedMckenna Shotwellblk Kayla Balfour+2.5
4624-22STETSNMERMCKKillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Ella Maldonado+1.2
4725-22MERMCKSTETSNKillAndrea Diaz Dominguezset Vanessa Shevchenko+2.3

Score shown after each rally, Stetson first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).