Stetson vs Bellarmine Volleyball: Bellarmine Wins 3-0

FinalFri, Oct 23, 2026ESPN+

0:3

RallyIQ pre-match: Bellarmine 87.9% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 23, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Bellarmine beat visiting Stetson 3-0 (25-13, 25-13, 25-20) on Fri, Oct 23, 2026. Bellarmine's Natalie Bland led with 17 kills, and Payton Parsons added 17 digs.

Data through Nov 4, 3:35 PM CT · final Oct 23

Set	1	2	3	Sets
STETSN	13	13	20	0
BELLAR	25	25	25	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

.630 and 17 kills for Natalie Bland as Bellarmine rolled past Stetson.

Win probability never moved more than 1.1 points on one rally; Stetson topped out at 12% in Set 1. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Bellarmine at 88%.

StetsonBellarmine

Break %+26.2 pts
31.357.5
Points won on own serve: 42 of 73 vs 15 of 48. Stetson sided out 42.5% of the time.
Hitting+.285
.105.390
Kills and errors: 50–11 vs 24–15.
Longest run+3
47
Down 7–9 in the second set, Bellarmine scored 7 straight to lead 14–9. That set ended 25–13.

Bellarmine above 50Stetson belowMax swing 1.1%

StetsonBellarmine

Aces: Stetson 4·Bellarmine 8
Serve err: Stetson 0·Bellarmine 7
Blocks: Stetson 5·Bellarmine 32 BS · 6 BA vs 0 BS · 6 BA
Digs: Stetson 37·Bellarmine 42

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Bellarmine above 50 · Stetson below

Biggest swing: 1.1% to Stetson — set 2, STETSN 4-0 BELLAR. Stetson ace on Payton Parsons. BELLAR win probability 91% → 90%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

STETSN 12.6%87.4% BELLAR

Stetson wins

3-0

1.8%

3-1

3.9%

3-2

6.9%

Bellarmine wins

3-0

40.4%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

15.5%

STETSN break %: 39.9% vs this opp
BELLAR break %: 48.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
StetsonAce+1.1%
Stetson ace on Payton Parsons
Set 2 · STETSN 4-0 BELLAR · STETSN 9% → 10%
02
Mya WhiteKill+1.1%
Kill by Mya White (set by Maddie Carnes)
Set 2 · STETSN 9-9 BELLAR · BELLAR 92% → 93%
03
Erika SmithKill+1.1%
Kill by Erika Smith (set by Maddie Carnes)
Set 1 · STETSN 3-5 BELLAR · BELLAR 89% → 90%
04
StetsonAce+1.1%
Stetson ace on Payton Parsons
Set 2 · STETSN 3-0 BELLAR · STETSN 8% → 9%
05
Erika SmithKill+1.1%
Kill by Erika Smith (set by Payton Parsons)
Set 2 · STETSN 7-6 BELLAR · BELLAR 91% → 92%
06
Karsu BayraktarKill+1.0%
Kill by Karsu Bayraktar (set by Andrea Diaz Dominguez)
Set 2 · STETSN 9-7 BELLAR · STETSN 8% → 9%
07
Vanessa ShevchenkoKill+1.0%
Kill by Vanessa Shevchenko (set by Karsu Bayraktar)
Set 1 · STETSN 3-3 BELLAR · STETSN 11% → 12%
08
Mady YadenKill+1.0%
Kill by Mady Yaden (set by Maddie Carnes)
Set 2 · STETSN 9-10 BELLAR · BELLAR 93% → 94%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Stetsonaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
12Kayla BalfourMB	3	5	2	13	.231	0	0	0	0	2	2	3	8
10Karsu BayraktarOH	3	5	6	21	-.048	1	0	6	0	0	0	0	5
7Vanessa ShevchenkoS	3	3	1	8	.250	11	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
21Sofia TorcelloMB	3	2	0	10	.200	1	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
2Jannelize PerezL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	5	1	0	0	0	1
11Andrea Diaz Dominguez	2	1	3	7	-.286	1	0	3	2	0	0	0	1
9Soraya TestonOH	3	4	2	11	.182	1	0	2	2	0	1	0.5	4.5
4Vitoria StedileL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	3	11	1	0	0	0	3
14Alessia BracchiMB	2	3	1	11	.182	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
1Eden BristowOH	2	1	0	4	.250	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
8Larissa HiemerS	2	0	0	1	.000	3	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
6Maia Keely PouS	2	0	0	0	–	5	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		24	15	86	.105	23	4	37	8	2	6	5	46

Bellarminehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
2Natalie BlandOH	3	17	0	27	.630	1	1	0	7	0	1	0.5	18.5
1Mady YadenOH	3	13	4	24	.375	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	13.5
3Erika SmithMB	3	11	2	20	.450	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	12
11Abby JuliusOH	3	3	2	9	.111	0	3	2	1	0	1	0.5	6.5
22Mya WhiteOH	3	4	2	11	.182	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4
7Maddie CarnesS	3	2	0	5	.400	44	1	2	5	0	1	0.5	3.5
12Abbie LyttleDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	2	4	1	0	0	2
24Ava LongDS	3	0	1	3	-.333	0	1	0	6	1	0	0	1
4Payton ParsonsL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	0	1	17	2	0	0	0
Team totals		50	11	100	.390	48	8	7	42	4	6	3	75

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Stetson vs Bellarmine

Season series · Bellarmine leads 2-0

Sun, Oct 11, 2026Bellarmine at Stetson · Bellarmine won 3-0Result →
Fri, Oct 23, 2026Stetson at Bellarmine · Bellarmine won 3-0This match

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 STETSN · BELLAR 7

Set 1

13-25

Longest run 2 STETSNBELLAR 5

Set 2

13-25

Longest run 4 STETSNBELLAR 7

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 3 STETSNBELLAR 5

Bars above the line = Bellarmine leads, below = Stetson leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Stetson

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	44%7/16	14%1/7
2	55%6/11	46%6/13
3	46%6/13	25%2/8
4	22%4/18	25%2/8
5	57%4/7	20%1/5
6	50%4/8	43%3/7
All	42%31/73	31%15/48

Bellarmine

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%7/11	67%10/15
2	64%7/11	36%4/11
3	86%6/7	54%7/13
4	71%5/7	64%9/14
5	80%4/5	71%10/14
6	57%4/7	33%2/6
All	69%33/48	58%42/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

121 rallies

#	STETSN-BELLAR	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	STETSN	BELLAR	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+0.9
2	1-1	BELLAR	STETSN	Kill	Kayla Balfour	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+1.0
3	1-2	STETSN	BELLAR	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+0.9
4	2-2	BELLAR	STETSN	Kill	Sofia Torcello	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+1.0
5	2-3	STETSN	BELLAR	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Payton Parsons	+0.9
6	3-3	BELLAR	STETSN	Kill	Vanessa Shevchenko	set Karsu Bayraktar	+1.0
7	3-4	STETSN	BELLAR×5	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+1.0
8	3-5	BELLAR	BELLAR×5	Kill	Erika Smith	set Maddie Carnes	+1.1
9	3-6	BELLAR	BELLAR×5	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+0.9
10	3-7	BELLAR	BELLAR×5	Attack err	Andrea Diaz Dominguez		+0.8
11	3-8	BELLAR	BELLAR×5	Ace	Bellarmine		+0.7
12	4-8	BELLAR	STETSN	Kill	Sofia Torcello	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+0.5
13	5-8	STETSN	STETSN	Attack err	Erika Smith		+0.8
14	5-9	STETSN	BELLAR×3	Kill	Erika Smith	set Maddie Carnes	+0.7
15	5-10	BELLAR	BELLAR×3	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+0.7
16	5-11	BELLAR	BELLAR×3	Kill	Maddie Carnes	set Mady Yaden	+0.5
17	6-11	BELLAR	STETSN	Serve err	Bellarmine		+0.4
18	7-11	STETSN	STETSN	Kill	Kayla Balfour	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+0.6
19	7-12	STETSN	BELLAR×5	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+0.6
20	7-13	BELLAR	BELLAR×5	Ace	Bellarmine	aced Jannelize Perez	+0.5
21	7-14	BELLAR	BELLAR×5	Attack err	Andrea Diaz Dominguez		+0.4
22	7-15	BELLAR	BELLAR×5	Kill	Mya White	set Maddie Carnes	+0.3
23	7-16	BELLAR	BELLAR×5	Attack err	Andrea Diaz Dominguez		+0.2
24	8-16	BELLAR	STETSN	Kill	Andrea Diaz Dominguez	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+0.1
25	9-16	STETSN	STETSN	Attack err	Mady Yaden		+0.2
26	9-17	STETSN	BELLAR	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+0.2
27	9-18	BELLAR	BELLAR	Ace	Bellarmine	aced Andrea Diaz Dominguez	+0.1
28	10-18	BELLAR	STETSN	Kill	Karsu Bayraktar	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+0.1
29	11-18	STETSN	STETSN	Attack err	Abby Julius		+0.1
30	11-19	STETSN	BELLAR	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+0.2
31	12-19	BELLAR	STETSN	Serve err	Bellarmine		+0.1
32	12-20	STETSN	BELLAR×4	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+0.1
33	12-21	BELLAR	BELLAR×4	Kill	Erika Smith	set Maddie Carnes	+0.1
34	12-22	BELLAR	BELLAR×4	Attack err	Karsu Bayraktar		·
35	12-23	BELLAR	BELLAR×4	Blocked	Karsu Bayraktar	blk Natalie Bland, Erika Smith	·
36	13-23	BELLAR	STETSN	Kill	Karsu Bayraktar	set Larissa Hiemer	·
37	13-24	STETSN	BELLAR	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	·
38	13-25	BELLAR	BELLAR	Kill	Erika Smith	set Maddie Carnes	·
Set 2
1	1-0	BELLAR	STETSN×4	Serve err	Bellarmine		+0.7
2	2-0	STETSN	STETSN×4	Kill	Soraya Teston	set Larissa Hiemer	+1.0
3	3-0	STETSN	STETSN×4	Ace	Stetson	aced Payton Parsons	+1.1
4	4-0	STETSN	STETSN×4	Ace	Stetson	aced Payton Parsons	+1.1
5	4-1	STETSN	BELLAR	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+0.8
6	4-2	BELLAR	BELLAR	Ace	Bellarmine	aced Soraya Teston	+1.0
7	5-2	BELLAR	STETSN	Serve err	Bellarmine		+1.0
8	5-3	STETSN	BELLAR	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+0.8
9	6-3	BELLAR	STETSN	Kill	Kayla Balfour	set Larissa Hiemer	+1.0
10	6-4	STETSN	BELLAR	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+0.8
11	7-4	BELLAR	STETSN	Blocked	Erika Smith	blk Kayla Balfour	+1.0
12	7-5	STETSN	BELLAR	Attack err	Karsu Bayraktar		+0.9
13	7-6	BELLAR	BELLAR	Kill	Erika Smith	set Payton Parsons	+1.1
14	8-6	BELLAR	STETSN	Attack err	Mady Yaden		+1.0
15	8-7	STETSN	BELLAR	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+0.9
16	9-7	BELLAR	STETSN	Kill	Karsu Bayraktar	set Andrea Diaz Dominguez	+1.0
17	9-8	STETSN	BELLAR×7	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+0.9
18	9-9	BELLAR	BELLAR×7	Kill	Mya White	set Maddie Carnes	+1.1
19	9-10	BELLAR	BELLAR×7	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+1.0
20	9-11	BELLAR	BELLAR×7	Bad set	Larissa Hiemer		+0.9
21	9-12	BELLAR	BELLAR×7	Kill	Abby Julius	set Maddie Carnes	+0.8
22	9-13	BELLAR	BELLAR×7	Kill	Mya White	set Maddie Carnes	+0.7
23	9-14	BELLAR	BELLAR×7	Kill	Abby Julius		+0.5
24	10-14	BELLAR	STETSN	Kill	Alessia Bracchi	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+0.4
25	10-15	STETSN	BELLAR	Kill	Abby Julius	set Maddie Carnes	+0.4
26	11-15	BELLAR	STETSN	Serve err	Bellarmine		+0.4
27	12-15	STETSN	STETSN	Blocked	Mya White	blk Kayla Balfour, Soraya Teston	+0.6
28	12-16	STETSN	BELLAR×4	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+0.6
29	12-17	BELLAR	BELLAR×4	Kill	Natalie Bland		+0.5
30	12-18	BELLAR	BELLAR×4	Attack err	Vanessa Shevchenko		+0.4
31	12-19	BELLAR	BELLAR×4	Attack err	Soraya Teston		+0.2
32	13-19	BELLAR	STETSN	Kill	Kayla Balfour	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+0.1
33	13-20	STETSN	BELLAR×6	Kill	Erika Smith	set Maddie Carnes	+0.2
34	13-21	BELLAR	BELLAR×6	Attack err	Kayla Balfour		+0.1
35	13-22	BELLAR	BELLAR×6	Attack err	Kayla Balfour		·
36	13-23	BELLAR	BELLAR×6	Bad set	Maia Keely Pou		·
37	13-24	BELLAR	BELLAR×6	Attack err	Karsu Bayraktar		·
38	13-25	BELLAR	BELLAR×6	Ace	Bellarmine	aced Andrea Diaz Dominguez	·
Set 3
1	0-1	STETSN	BELLAR	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+0.3
2	0-2	BELLAR	BELLAR	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+0.3
3	1-2	BELLAR	STETSN	Attack err	Mya White		+0.3
4	1-3	STETSN	BELLAR	Kill	Mya White	set Maddie Carnes	+0.3
5	2-3	BELLAR	STETSN	Kill	Soraya Teston	set Maia Keely Pou	+0.3
6	2-4	STETSN	BELLAR	Kill	Erika Smith	set Maddie Carnes	+0.3
7	3-4	BELLAR	STETSN×3	Kill	Alessia Bracchi	set Sofia Torcello	+0.3
8	4-4	STETSN	STETSN×3	Kill	Karsu Bayraktar	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+0.4
9	5-4	STETSN	STETSN×3	Ace	Stetson	aced Ava Long	+0.5
10	5-5	STETSN	BELLAR×5	Attack err	Alessia Bracchi		+0.4
11	5-6	BELLAR	BELLAR×5	Blocked	Karsu Bayraktar	blk Erika Smith, Maddie Carnes	+0.4
12	5-7	BELLAR	BELLAR×5	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+0.4
13	5-8	BELLAR	BELLAR×5	Attack err	Karsu Bayraktar		+0.3
14	5-9	BELLAR	BELLAR×5	Kill	Erika Smith	set Maddie Carnes	+0.3
15	6-9	BELLAR	STETSN	Kill	Karsu Bayraktar	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+0.2
16	6-10	STETSN	BELLAR	Kill	Erika Smith	set Maddie Carnes	+0.2
17	7-10	BELLAR	STETSN	Blocked	Abby Julius	blk Kayla Balfour	+0.2
18	7-11	STETSN	BELLAR	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+0.2
19	8-11	BELLAR	STETSN	Serve err	Bellarmine		+0.2
20	8-12	STETSN	BELLAR	Blocked	Soraya Teston	blk Mady Yaden, Abby Julius	+0.3
21	8-13	BELLAR	BELLAR	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+0.2
22	9-13	BELLAR	STETSN×3	Kill	Kayla Balfour	set Maia Keely Pou	+0.2
23	10-13	STETSN	STETSN×3	Ace	Stetson	aced Abbie Lyttle	+0.3
24	11-13	STETSN	STETSN×3	Kill	Soraya Teston	set Maia Keely Pou	+0.4
25	11-14	STETSN	BELLAR×4	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+0.3
26	11-15	BELLAR	BELLAR×4	Ace	Bellarmine	aced Vitoria Stedile	+0.3
27	11-16	BELLAR	BELLAR×4	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+0.3
28	11-17	BELLAR	BELLAR×4	Ace	Bellarmine	aced Soraya Teston	+0.2
29	12-17	BELLAR	STETSN	Serve err	Bellarmine		+0.1
30	13-17	STETSN	STETSN	Kill	Soraya Teston		+0.2
31	13-18	STETSN	BELLAR	Kill	Erika Smith	set Maddie Carnes	+0.2
32	13-19	BELLAR	BELLAR	Kill	Maddie Carnes	set Natalie Bland	+0.2
33	14-19	BELLAR	STETSN	Kill	Alessia Bracchi	set Soraya Teston	+0.1
34	14-20	STETSN	BELLAR	Kill	Erika Smith	set Maddie Carnes	+0.1
35	15-20	BELLAR	STETSN	Blocked	Mady Yaden	blk Sofia Torcello, Alessia Bracchi	+0.1
36	15-21	STETSN	BELLAR	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+0.1
37	16-21	BELLAR	STETSN×3	Kill	Eden Bristow	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+0.1
38	17-21	STETSN	STETSN×3	Attack err	Ava Long		+0.2
39	18-21	STETSN	STETSN×3	Blocked	Mady Yaden	blk Vanessa Shevchenko, Kayla Balfour	+0.3
40	18-22	STETSN	BELLAR	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+0.3
41	19-22	BELLAR	STETSN	Kill	Vanessa Shevchenko	set Maia Keely Pou	+0.2
42	19-23	STETSN	BELLAR	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+0.3
43	20-23	BELLAR	STETSN	Kill	Vanessa Shevchenko	set Maia Keely Pou	+0.2
44	20-24	STETSN	BELLAR	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+0.3
45	20-25	BELLAR	BELLAR	Ace	Bellarmine		+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Stetson first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Bellarmine def. Stetson 3–0

.630 and 17 kills for Natalie Bland as Bellarmine rolled past Stetson.