Manhattan def. Central Conn. St. 3–2
Manhattan won at Central Conn. St. 3-2 (25-23, 26-28, 25-20, 19-25, 16-14) on Tue, Sep 15, 2026. Hanna Kaczynska led Manhattan with 11 kills; Central Conn. St.'s Aubrey Stitcher had a match-high 16.
Data through · final Sep 15
| Set | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Sets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MANHAT | 25 | 26 | 25 | 19 | 16 | 3 |
| C CONN | 23 | 28 | 20 | 25 | 14 | 2 |
Win probability
Biggest swing: 30.0% to Manhattan — set 5, MANHAT 16-14 C CONN. Attack error by Hanley Schmidt. C CONN win probability 30% → 0%.
Pre-match
Season fit · includes this match
Manhattan wins
Central Conn. St. wins
- MANHAT break %
- 40.3% vs this opp
- C CONN break %
- 43.8% vs this opp
Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.
Top plays
Largest win-probability swings
- 01Hanley SchmidtAttack error+30.0%
Attack error by Hanley Schmidt
Set 5 · MANHAT 16-14 C CONN · MANHAT 70% → 100%
- 02TeamKill+27.6%
Kill by Team (set by Team)
Set 5 · MANHAT 15-14 C CONN · MANHAT 42% → 70%
- 03ManhattanAce+25.3%
Manhattan ace on Aubrey Stitcher
Set 5 · MANHAT 14-14 C CONN · MANHAT 17% → 42%
- 04Aubrey StitcherKill+13.2%
Kill by Aubrey Stitcher (set by Team)
Set 5 · MANHAT 12-14 C CONN · C CONN 77% → 90%
- 05TeamKill+12.1%
Kill by Team
Set 2 · MANHAT 24-24 C CONN · C CONN 31% → 43%
- 06TeamKill+11.4%
Kill by Team (set by Team)
Set 5 · MANHAT 11-13 C CONN · C CONN 74% → 85%
- 07TeamAttack error+11.2%
Attack error by Team
Set 2 · MANHAT 26-27 C CONN · C CONN 43% → 54%
- 08Team&Hanna KaczynskaBlock+10.8%
Team stuffed by Team & Hanna Kaczynska
Set 5 · MANHAT 10-11 C CONN · MANHAT 17% → 28%
Box score
Official NCAA box
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 4 | 27 | .259 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 13 | |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | .400 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1.000 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -.500 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -.125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 2 | 14 | .357 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | |
| Team totals | 55 | 27 | 151 | .185 | 50 | 10 | 7 | 68 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 111 |
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 11 | 8 | 34 | .088 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 13 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 4 | 16 | 4 | 35 | .343 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 16.5 | |
| 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1.000 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -.250 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 65 | 26 | 169 | .231 | 60 | 10 | 19 | 61 | 10 | 1 | 19 | 10.5 | 110 |
Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.
Momentum
Point differential by rally
Set 1
25-23
Set 2
26-28
Set 3
25-20
Set 4
19-25
Set 5
16-14
Bars above the line = Central Conn. St. leads, below = Manhattan leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.
Rotations
Sideout and break % by rotation slot
Manhattan
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48%10/21 | 25%3/12 |
| 2 | 45%9/20 | 50%9/18 |
| 3 | 89%8/9 | 58%11/19 |
| 4 | 67%8/12 | 20%2/10 |
| 5 | 50%7/14 | 38%5/13 |
| 6 | 64%7/11 | 50%7/14 |
| All | 56%49/87 | 43%37/86 |
Central Conn. St.
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 83%10/12 | 47%7/15 |
| 2 | 38%9/24 | 57%13/23 |
| 3 | 57%8/14 | 31%4/13 |
| 4 | 73%8/11 | 11%1/9 |
| 5 | 64%7/11 | 56%9/16 |
| 6 | 50%7/14 | 36%4/11 |
| All | 57%49/86 | 44%38/87 |
Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.
Rally log
221 rallies
| # | MANHAT-C CONN | Srv | Point | End | Player | Setter / blockers / passer | WP Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set 1 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | MANHAT | MANHAT | Blocked | Team | blk Team, Hanna Kaczynska | +2.3 |
| 2 | 1-1 | MANHAT | C CONN | Serve err | Manhattan | +1.6 | |
| 3 | 2-1 | C CONN | MANHAT | Serve err | Central Conn. St. | +1.8 | |
| 4 | 2-2 | MANHAT | C CONN | Serve err | Manhattan | +1.7 | |
| 5 | 3-2 | C CONN | MANHAT | Kill | Team | set Ori Briger | +1.8 |
| 6 | 3-3 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Team | set Team | +1.7 |
| 7 | 4-3 | C CONN | MANHAT | Serve err | Central Conn. St. | +1.8 | |
| 8 | 5-3 | MANHAT | MANHAT | Kill | Brooke Johnson | set Team | +2.6 |
| 9 | 5-4 | MANHAT | C CONN×5 | Kill | Madison Fulgencio | set Team | +1.8 |
| 10 | 5-5 | C CONN | C CONN×5 | Ace | Central Conn. St. | aced Anna Duncan | +2.5 |
| 11 | 5-6 | C CONN | C CONN×5 | Kill | Team | set Team | +2.5 |
| 12 | 5-7 | C CONN | C CONN×5 | Kill | Team | set Team | +2.4 |
| 13 | 5-8 | C CONN | C CONN×5 | Blocked | Kaitlyn Doyle | blk Team | +2.2 |
| 14 | 6-8 | C CONN | MANHAT×3 | Serve err | Central Conn. St. | +1.5 | |
| 15 | 7-8 | MANHAT | MANHAT×3 | Ace | Manhattan | +2.4 | |
| 16 | 8-8 | MANHAT | MANHAT×3 | Blocked | Madison Fulgencio | blk Team | +2.7 |
| 17 | 8-9 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Team | set Team | +1.9 |
| 18 | 9-9 | C CONN | MANHAT×5 | Kill | Brooke Johnson | set Emilia Kuzniar | +2.0 |
| 19 | 10-9 | MANHAT | MANHAT×5 | Ace | Manhattan | +3.0 | |
| 20 | 11-9 | MANHAT | MANHAT×5 | Attack err | Hanley Schmidt | +3.1 | |
| 21 | 12-9 | MANHAT | MANHAT×5 | Attack err | Annabelle Denomme | +3.1 | |
| 22 | 13-9 | MANHAT | MANHAT×5 | Attack err | Hanley Schmidt | +2.9 | |
| 23 | 13-10 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Team | set Team | +1.7 |
| 24 | 14-10 | C CONN | MANHAT | Kill | Emilia Kuzniar | set Ori Briger | +2.2 |
| 25 | 14-11 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Hanley Schmidt | set Team | +1.7 |
| 26 | 15-11 | C CONN | MANHAT | Kill | Ori Briger | set Team | +2.2 |
| 27 | 15-12 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Team | set Team | +1.7 |
| 28 | 16-12 | C CONN | MANHAT | Attack err | Madison Fulgencio | +2.2 | |
| 29 | 16-13 | MANHAT | C CONN×5 | Serve err | Manhattan | +1.7 | |
| 30 | 16-14 | C CONN | C CONN×5 | Attack err | Team | +2.9 | |
| 31 | 16-15 | C CONN | NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +3.4 | |||
| 32 | 16-16 | C CONN | C CONN×5 | Kill | Team | set Team | +3.7 |
| 33 | 16-17 | C CONN | C CONN×5 | Ace | Central Conn. St. | aced Anna Duncan | +3.8 |
| 34 | 17-17 | C CONN | MANHAT | Serve err | Central Conn. St. | +2.8 | |
| 35 | 17-18 | MANHAT | C CONN | Attack err | Team | +2.9 | |
| 36 | 18-18 | C CONN | MANHAT | Serve err | Central Conn. St. | +3.0 | |
| 37 | 19-18 | MANHAT | NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +4.7 | |||
| 38 | 19-19 | MANHAT | C CONN×3 | Kill | Hanley Schmidt | set Team | +3.3 |
| 39 | 19-20 | C CONN | C CONN×3 | Bad set | Emilia Kuzniar | +4.8 | |
| 40 | 19-21 | C CONN | C CONN×3 | Kill | Team | set Team | +4.5 |
| 41 | 20-21 | C CONN | MANHAT | Kill | Emilia Kuzniar | set Team | +2.8 |
| 42 | 20-22 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Team | set Team | +3.5 |
| 43 | 21-22 | C CONN | MANHAT×4 | Kill | Hanna Kaczynska | set Ori Briger | +2.9 |
| 44 | 22-22 | MANHAT | MANHAT×4 | Kill | Hanna Kaczynska | set Julia Pfleger | +5.9 |
| 45 | 23-22 | MANHAT | MANHAT×4 | Ace | Manhattan | +7.6 | |
| 46 | 24-22 | MANHAT | MANHAT×4 | Attack err | Team | +7.7 | |
| 47 | 24-23 | MANHAT | C CONN | Blocked | Kaitlyn Doyle | blk Hanley Schmidt, Team | +3.1 |
| 48 | 25-23 | C CONN | MANHAT | Kill | Hanna Kaczynska | set Anna Duncan | +7.7 |
| Set 2 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | C CONN | C CONN | Blocked | Team | blk Hanley Schmidt, Team | +2.7 |
| 2 | 1-1 | C CONN | MANHAT | Serve err | Central Conn. St. | +2.0 | |
| 3 | 1-2 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Team | set Team | +2.0 |
| 4 | 2-2 | C CONN | MANHAT | Kill | Team | set Ori Briger | +2.1 |
| 5 | 2-3 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Team | set Team | +2.0 |
| 6 | 3-3 | C CONN | MANHAT | Serve err | Central Conn. St. | +2.1 | |
| 7 | 4-3 | MANHAT | MANHAT | Kill | Team | set Emilia Kuzniar | +3.1 |
| 8 | 4-4 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Team | set Team | +2.2 |
| 9 | 4-5 | C CONN | C CONN | Ace | Central Conn. St. | +3.0 | |
| 10 | 5-5 | C CONN | MANHAT | Serve err | Central Conn. St. | +2.2 | |
| 11 | 6-5 | MANHAT | MANHAT | Kill | Brooke Johnson | set Emilia Kuzniar | +3.3 |
| 12 | 6-6 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Team | set Team | +2.3 |
| 13 | 6-7 | C CONN | C CONN | Attack err | Brooke Johnson | +3.1 | |
| 14 | 7-7 | C CONN | MANHAT | Kill | Brooke Johnson | set Emilia Kuzniar | +2.3 |
| 15 | 8-7 | MANHAT | MANHAT | Attack err | Team | +3.4 | |
| 16 | 8-8 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Aubrey Stitcher | set Team | +2.4 |
| 17 | 8-9 | C CONN | C CONN | Kill | Hanley Schmidt | set Annabelle Denomme | +3.3 |
| 18 | 9-9 | C CONN | MANHAT | Serve err | Central Conn. St. | +2.5 | |
| 19 | 10-9 | MANHAT | MANHAT | Attack err | Team | +3.7 | |
| 20 | 10-10 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Aubrey Stitcher | set Team | +2.6 |
| 21 | 11-10 | C CONN | MANHAT | Kill | Team | set Team | +2.8 |
| 22 | 11-11 | MANHAT | C CONN×3 | Serve err | Manhattan | +2.7 | |
| 23 | 11-12 | C CONN | C CONN×3 | Blocked | Team | blk Team, Hanley Schmidt | +3.7 |
| 24 | 11-13 | C CONN | C CONN×3 | Kill | Team | set Team | +3.5 |
| 25 | 12-13 | C CONN | MANHAT | Kill | Hanna Kaczynska | set Ori Briger | +2.5 |
| 26 | 13-13 | MANHAT | MANHAT | Attack err | Team | +3.9 | |
| 27 | 13-14 | MANHAT | C CONN | Serve err | Manhattan | +2.9 | |
| 28 | 14-14 | C CONN | MANHAT | Kill | Team | set Ori Briger | +3.0 |
| 29 | 14-15 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Team | set Team | +3.0 |
| 30 | 15-15 | C CONN | MANHAT | Kill | Brooke Johnson | set Emilia Kuzniar | +3.1 |
| 31 | 16-15 | MANHAT | MANHAT | Kill | Brooke Johnson | set Ori Briger | +4.7 |
| 32 | 16-16 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Aubrey Stitcher | set Team | +3.3 |
| 33 | 17-16 | C CONN | MANHAT | Serve err | Central Conn. St. | +3.7 | |
| 34 | 18-16 | MANHAT | MANHAT | Ace | Manhattan | +5.2 | |
| 35 | 18-17 | MANHAT | C CONN | Attack err | Brooke Johnson | +3.3 | |
| 36 | 18-18 | C CONN | C CONN | Kill | Team | set Team | +5.2 |
| 37 | 19-18 | C CONN | MANHAT | Kill | Brooke Johnson | set Ori Briger | +4.2 |
| 38 | 20-18 | MANHAT | MANHAT | Blocked | Hanley Schmidt | blk Team, Hanna Kaczynska | +6.0 |
| 39 | 20-19 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Hanley Schmidt | set Team | +3.6 |
| 40 | 20-20 | C CONN | C CONN | Ace | Central Conn. St. | +6.1 | |
| 41 | 21-20 | C CONN | MANHAT | Kill | Hanna Kaczynska | set Ori Briger | +5.1 |
| 42 | 21-21 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Team | set Team | +4.8 |
| 43 | 21-22 | C CONN | C CONN | Kill | Team | set Team | +7.5 |
| 44 | 22-22 | C CONN | MANHAT×3 | Serve err | Central Conn. St. | +5.3 | |
| 45 | 23-22 | MANHAT | MANHAT×3 | Kill | Team | set Ori Briger | +9.4 |
| 46 | 24-22 | MANHAT | MANHAT×3 | Kill | Team | +9.5 | |
| 47 | 24-23 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Team | set Team | +3.8 |
| 48 | 24-24 | C CONN | C CONN | Kill | Team | +12.1 | |
| 49 | 25-24 | C CONN | MANHAT | Kill | Team | set Ori Briger | +8.7 |
| 50 | 25-25 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Team | set Team | +8.7 |
| 51 | 26-25 | C CONN | MANHAT | Kill | Hanna Kaczynska | set Ori Briger | +8.7 |
| 52 | 26-26 | MANHAT | C CONN×3 | Kill | Team | set Team | +8.7 |
| 53 | 26-27 | C CONN | C CONN×3 | Attack err | Team | +11.2 | |
| 54 | 26-28 | C CONN | C CONN×3 | Kill | Aubrey Stitcher | set Team | +10.3 |
| Set 3 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Team | set Team | +2.2 |
| 2 | 0-2 | C CONN | C CONN | Attack err | Team | +2.9 | |
| 3 | 1-2 | C CONN | MANHAT | Kill | Hanna Kaczynska | set Anna Duncan | +2.1 |
| 4 | 1-3 | MANHAT | C CONN | Blocked | Hanna Kaczynska | blk Team | +2.1 |
| 5 | 1-4 | C CONN | C CONN | Ace | Central Conn. St. | +2.8 | |
| 6 | 2-4 | C CONN | MANHAT | Kill | Team | set Ori Briger | +1.9 |
| 7 | 3-4 | MANHAT | MANHAT | Attack err | Team | +3.0 | |
| 8 | 3-5 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Team | set Team | +2.2 |
| 9 | 4-5 | C CONN | MANHAT | Serve err | Central Conn. St. | +2.2 | |
| 10 | 4-6 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Aubrey Stitcher | set Team | +2.3 |
| 11 | 5-6 | C CONN | MANHAT×3 | Attack err | Aubrey Stitcher | +2.3 | |
| 12 | 6-6 | MANHAT | MANHAT×3 | Attack err | Team | +3.5 | |
| 13 | 7-6 | MANHAT | MANHAT×3 | Kill | Team | set Emilia Kuzniar | +3.8 |
| 14 | 7-7 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Team | set Team | +2.6 |
| 15 | 7-8 | C CONN | C CONN | Attack err | Margaret OBrien | +3.6 | |
| 16 | 8-8 | C CONN | MANHAT×3 | Kill | Team | set Team | +2.7 |
| 17 | 9-8 | MANHAT | MANHAT×3 | Attack err | Hanley Schmidt | +4.0 | |
| 18 | 10-8 | MANHAT | MANHAT×3 | Blocked | Hanley Schmidt | blk Margaret OBrien, Team | +4.2 |
| 19 | 10-9 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Team | set Team | +2.8 |
| 20 | 10-10 | C CONN | C CONN | Attack err | Team | +4.0 | |
| 21 | 11-10 | C CONN | MANHAT | Serve err | Central Conn. St. | +3.1 | |
| 22 | 12-10 | MANHAT | MANHAT | Ace | Manhattan | aced Meg Berkland | +4.4 |
| 23 | 12-11 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Hanley Schmidt | set Team | +3.0 |
| 24 | 13-11 | C CONN | MANHAT | Serve err | Central Conn. St. | +3.4 | |
| 25 | 13-12 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Team | set Team | +3.1 |
| 26 | 14-12 | C CONN | MANHAT | Serve err | Central Conn. St. | +3.5 | |
| 27 | 14-13 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Team | set Team | +3.2 |
| 28 | 15-13 | C CONN | MANHAT | Kill | Ori Briger | set Ori Briger | +3.7 |
| 29 | 15-14 | MANHAT | C CONN×3 | Kill | Aubrey Stitcher | set Team | +3.3 |
| 30 | 15-15 | C CONN | C CONN×3 | Attack err | Team | +4.9 | |
| 31 | 15-16 | C CONN | C CONN×3 | Kill | Aubrey Stitcher | set Team | +5.0 |
| 32 | 16-16 | C CONN | MANHAT | Serve err | Central Conn. St. | +3.7 | |
| 33 | 16-17 | MANHAT | C CONN | Serve err | Manhattan | +3.8 | |
| 34 | 17-17 | C CONN | MANHAT | Kill | Team | set Emilia Kuzniar | +3.9 |
| 35 | 17-18 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Hanley Schmidt | set Team | +4.1 |
| 36 | 18-18 | C CONN | MANHAT | Kill | Team | set Team | +4.2 |
| 37 | 18-19 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Hanley Schmidt | set Team | +4.4 |
| 38 | 18-20 | C CONN | C CONN | Attack err | Team | +5.7 | |
| 39 | 19-20 | C CONN | MANHAT×7 | Kill | Hanna Kaczynska | set Ori Briger | +3.7 |
| 40 | 20-20 | MANHAT | MANHAT×7 | Ace | Manhattan | aced Meg Berkland | +6.6 |
| 41 | 21-20 | MANHAT | MANHAT×7 | Attack err | Hanley Schmidt | +7.9 | |
| 42 | 22-20 | MANHAT | MANHAT×7 | Kill | Team | set Ori Briger | +8.1 |
| 43 | 23-20 | MANHAT | MANHAT×7 | Kill | Team | +6.7 | |
| 44 | 24-20 | MANHAT | MANHAT×7 | Kill | Team | set Ori Briger | +3.9 |
| 45 | 25-20 | MANHAT | MANHAT×7 | Ace | Manhattan | aced Meg Berkland | +1.2 |
| Set 4 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | C CONN | C CONN | Ace | Central Conn. St. | +3.7 | |
| 2 | 1-1 | C CONN | MANHAT | Kill | Team | set Ori Briger | +2.7 |
| 3 | 2-1 | MANHAT | MANHAT | Kill | Team | set Ori Briger | +4.0 |
| 4 | 2-2 | MANHAT | C CONN×4 | Blocked | Hanna Kaczynska | blk Team, Aubrey Stitcher | +2.8 |
| 5 | 2-3 | C CONN | C CONN×4 | Attack err | Team | +3.8 | |
| 6 | 2-4 | C CONN | C CONN×4 | Ace | Central Conn. St. | aced Anna Duncan | +3.7 |
| 7 | 2-5 | C CONN | C CONN×4 | Kill | Aubrey Stitcher | set Gabriella Burdier | +3.4 |
| 8 | 3-5 | C CONN | MANHAT | Kill | Team | set Ori Briger | +2.3 |
| 9 | 3-6 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Aubrey Stitcher | set Team | +2.5 |
| 10 | 4-6 | C CONN | MANHAT | Attack err | Aubrey Stitcher | +2.4 | |
| 11 | 4-7 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Hanley Schmidt | set Team | +2.5 |
| 12 | 5-7 | C CONN | MANHAT | Kill | Team | set Team | +2.4 |
| 13 | 5-8 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Team | set Team | +2.6 |
| 14 | 5-9 | C CONN | C CONN | Kill | Hanley Schmidt | set Annabelle Denomme | +3.2 |
| 15 | 6-9 | C CONN | MANHAT | Serve err | Central Conn. St. | +2.1 | |
| 16 | 6-10 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Team | set Team | +2.3 |
| 17 | 7-10 | C CONN | MANHAT | Kill | Team | set Emilia Kuzniar | +2.1 |
| 18 | 7-11 | MANHAT | C CONN×4 | Kill | Team | set Team | +2.4 |
| 19 | 7-12 | C CONN | C CONN×4 | Attack err | Hanna Kaczynska | +2.7 | |
| 20 | 7-13 | C CONN | C CONN×4 | Kill | Team | set Team | +2.1 |
| 21 | 7-14 | C CONN | C CONN×4 | Kill | Aubrey Stitcher | +1.6 | |
| 22 | 8-14 | C CONN | MANHAT | Kill | Team | set Ori Briger | +0.8 |
| 23 | 8-15 | MANHAT | C CONN×3 | Kill | Team | set Team | +1.1 |
| 24 | 8-16 | C CONN | C CONN×3 | Attack err | Team | +1.0 | |
| 25 | 8-17 | C CONN | C CONN×3 | Attack err | Team | +0.6 | |
| 26 | 9-17 | C CONN | MANHAT×5 | Kill | Hanna Kaczynska | set Ori Briger | +0.3 |
| 27 | 10-17 | MANHAT | MANHAT×5 | Kill | Team | set Team | +0.6 |
| 28 | 11-17 | MANHAT | MANHAT×5 | Attack err | Team | +0.9 | |
| 29 | 12-17 | MANHAT | MANHAT×5 | Attack err | Aubrey Stitcher | +1.4 | |
| 30 | 13-17 | MANHAT | MANHAT×5 | Attack err | Team | +2.1 | |
| 31 | 13-18 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Aubrey Stitcher | set Team | +2.0 |
| 32 | 14-18 | C CONN | MANHAT | Blocked | Hanley Schmidt | blk Hanna Kaczynska, Team | +1.5 |
| 33 | 15-18 | MANHAT | MANHAT | Kill | Team | set Emilia Kuzniar | +2.9 |
| 34 | 15-19 | MANHAT | C CONN | Attack err | Team | +2.8 | |
| 35 | 16-19 | C CONN | MANHAT | Kill | Margaret OBrien | set Emilia Kuzniar | +2.1 |
| 36 | 17-19 | MANHAT | MANHAT | Ace | Manhattan | +4.2 | |
| 37 | 17-20 | MANHAT | C CONN×3 | Kill | Team | set Team | +3.9 |
| 38 | 17-21 | C CONN | C CONN×3 | Blocked | Margaret OBrien | blk Team | +3.9 |
| 39 | 17-22 | C CONN | C CONN×3 | Attack err | Team | +2.4 | |
| 40 | 18-22 | C CONN | MANHAT | Kill | Team | set Ori Briger | +0.9 |
| 41 | 18-23 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Hanley Schmidt | set Team | +1.5 |
| 42 | 18-24 | C CONN | C CONN | Attack err | Team | +0.8 | |
| 43 | 19-24 | C CONN | MANHAT | Serve err | Central Conn. St. | +0.1 | |
| 44 | 19-25 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Team | set Team | +1.4 |
| Set 5 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | MANHAT | C CONN×4 | Kill | Team | set Team | +6.0 |
| 2 | 0-2 | C CONN | C CONN×4 | Kill | Aubrey Stitcher | set Team | +7.9 |
| 3 | 0-3 | C CONN | C CONN×4 | Ace | Central Conn. St. | aced Anna Duncan | +7.1 |
| 4 | 0-4 | C CONN | C CONN×4 | Kill | Aubrey Stitcher | set Team | +6.1 |
| 5 | 1-4 | C CONN | MANHAT×3 | Kill | Team | set Ori Briger | +3.8 |
| 6 | 2-4 | MANHAT | MANHAT×3 | Attack err | Aubrey Stitcher | +6.6 | |
| 7 | 3-4 | MANHAT | MANHAT×3 | Kill | Hanna Kaczynska | set Ori Briger | +8.1 |
| 8 | 3-5 | MANHAT | C CONN×3 | Kill | Aubrey Stitcher | set Team | +6.4 |
| 9 | 3-6 | C CONN | C CONN×3 | Ace | Central Conn. St. | aced Anna Duncan | +7.9 |
| 10 | 3-7 | C CONN | C CONN×3 | Kill | Aubrey Stitcher | set Annabelle Denomme | +6.4 |
| 11 | 4-7 | C CONN | MANHAT | Kill | Team | set Ori Briger | +3.8 |
| 12 | 4-8 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Hanley Schmidt | set Team | +4.7 |
| 13 | 5-8 | C CONN | MANHAT | Kill | Team | set Ori Briger | +3.7 |
| 14 | 5-9 | MANHAT | C CONN | Attack err | Team | +4.8 | |
| 15 | 5-10 | C CONN | C CONN | Blocked | Hanna Kaczynska | blk Team | +4.6 |
| 16 | 6-10 | C CONN | MANHAT | Attack err | Team | +2.1 | |
| 17 | 6-11 | MANHAT | C CONN | Blocked | Team | blk Team | +3.2 |
| 18 | 7-11 | C CONN | MANHAT×4 | Kill | Hanna Kaczynska | set Ori Briger | +1.9 |
| 19 | 8-11 | MANHAT | MANHAT×4 | Kill | Team | set Ori Briger | +4.4 |
| 20 | 9-11 | MANHAT | MANHAT×4 | Kill | Team | set Team | +7.1 |
| 21 | 10-11 | MANHAT | MANHAT×4 | Blocked | Team | blk Team, Hanna Kaczynska | +10.8 |
| 22 | 10-12 | MANHAT | C CONN | Serve err | Manhattan | +10.1 | |
| 23 | 11-12 | C CONN | MANHAT | Serve err | Central Conn. St. | +8.2 | |
| 24 | 11-13 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Team | set Team | +11.4 |
| 25 | 12-13 | C CONN | MANHAT | Kill | Team | set Team | +8.3 |
| 26 | 12-14 | MANHAT | C CONN | Kill | Aubrey Stitcher | set Team | +13.2 |
| 27 | 13-14 | C CONN | MANHAT×4 | Bad set | Team | +7.5 | |
| 28 | 14-14 | MANHAT | MANHAT×4 | Ace | Manhattan | aced Aubrey Stitcher | +25.3 |
| 29 | 15-14 | MANHAT | MANHAT×4 | Kill | Team | set Team | +27.6 |
| 30 | 16-14 | MANHAT | MANHAT×4 | Attack err | Hanley Schmidt | +30.0 | |
Score shown after each rally, Manhattan first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).