Final · 5 setsTue, Sep 15, 2026

Manhattan def. Central Conn. St. 3–2

Manhattan won at Central Conn. St. 3-2 (25-23, 26-28, 25-20, 19-25, 16-14) on Tue, Sep 15, 2026. Hanna Kaczynska led Manhattan with 11 kills; Central Conn. St.'s Aubrey Stitcher had a match-high 16.

Data through · final Sep 15

Set12345Sets
MANHAT25262519163
C CONN23282025142

Win probability

Central Conn. St. above 50 · Manhattan below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+30.0% MANHATrally 221 · set 5

Biggest swing: 30.0% to Manhattan — set 5, MANHAT 16-14 C CONN. Attack error by Hanley Schmidt. C CONN win probability 30% → 0%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MANHAT 32.0%68.0% C CONN

Manhattan wins

3-0
6.3%
3-1
11.3%
3-2
14.4%

Central Conn. St. wins

3-0
21.9%
3-1
26.1%
3-2
20.0%
MANHAT break %
40.3% vs this opp
C CONN break %
43.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Hanley SchmidtAttack error+30.0%

    Attack error by Hanley Schmidt

    Set 5 · MANHAT 16-14 C CONN · MANHAT 70% → 100%

  2. 02
    TeamKill+27.6%

    Kill by Team (set by Team)

    Set 5 · MANHAT 15-14 C CONN · MANHAT 42% → 70%

  3. 03
    ManhattanAce+25.3%

    Manhattan ace on Aubrey Stitcher

    Set 5 · MANHAT 14-14 C CONN · MANHAT 17% → 42%

  4. 04
    Aubrey StitcherKill+13.2%

    Kill by Aubrey Stitcher (set by Team)

    Set 5 · MANHAT 12-14 C CONN · C CONN 77% → 90%

  5. 05
    TeamKill+12.1%

    Kill by Team

    Set 2 · MANHAT 24-24 C CONN · C CONN 31% → 43%

  6. 06
    TeamKill+11.4%

    Kill by Team (set by Team)

    Set 5 · MANHAT 11-13 C CONN · C CONN 74% → 85%

  7. 07
    TeamAttack error+11.2%

    Attack error by Team

    Set 2 · MANHAT 26-27 C CONN · C CONN 43% → 54%

  8. 08
    Team&Hanna KaczynskaBlock+10.8%

    Team stuffed by Team & Hanna Kaczynska

    Set 5 · MANHAT 10-11 C CONN · MANHAT 17% → 28%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
111427.2590002004213
1205.4002811800003
52021.0001001700002
5024-.500002400000
4000–220350002
4002.0001001100000
3128-.12500000010.51.5
3000–010200001
27214.357000000007
Team totals5527151.1855010768101106111
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
211834.0880000004213
2000–0121330001
5000–113900001
416435.34300041010.516.5
4011-1.000304900000
1124-.250000100001
1001.000000000000
Team totals6526169.231601019611011910.5110

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 MANHAT · C CONN 5

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 5 MANHATC CONN 5

Set 2

26-28

Longest run 3 MANHATC CONN 3

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 7 MANHATC CONN 3

Set 4

19-25

Longest run 5 MANHATC CONN 4

Set 5

16-14

Longest run 4 MANHATC CONN 4

Bars above the line = Central Conn. St. leads, below = Manhattan leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Manhattan

SlotSideout %Break %
1
48%10/21
25%3/12
2
45%9/20
50%9/18
3
89%8/9
58%11/19
4
67%8/12
20%2/10
5
50%7/14
38%5/13
6
64%7/11
50%7/14
All
56%49/87
43%37/86

Central Conn. St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
83%10/12
47%7/15
2
38%9/24
57%13/23
3
57%8/14
31%4/13
4
73%8/11
11%1/9
5
64%7/11
56%9/16
6
50%7/14
36%4/11
All
57%49/86
44%38/87

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

221 rallies

#MANHAT-C CONNSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0MANHATMANHATBlockedTeamblk Team, Hanna Kaczynska+2.3
21-1MANHATC CONNServe errManhattan+1.6
32-1C CONNMANHATServe errCentral Conn. St.+1.8
42-2MANHATC CONNServe errManhattan+1.7
53-2C CONNMANHATKillTeamset Ori Briger+1.8
63-3MANHATC CONNKillTeamset Team+1.7
74-3C CONNMANHATServe errCentral Conn. St.+1.8
85-3MANHATMANHATKillBrooke Johnsonset Team+2.6
95-4MANHATC CONN×5KillMadison Fulgencioset Team+1.8
105-5C CONNC CONN×5AceCentral Conn. St.aced Anna Duncan+2.5
115-6C CONNC CONN×5KillTeamset Team+2.5
125-7C CONNC CONN×5KillTeamset Team+2.4
135-8C CONNC CONN×5BlockedKaitlyn Doyleblk Team+2.2
146-8C CONNMANHAT×3Serve errCentral Conn. St.+1.5
157-8MANHATMANHAT×3AceManhattan+2.4
168-8MANHATMANHAT×3BlockedMadison Fulgencioblk Team+2.7
178-9MANHATC CONNKillTeamset Team+1.9
189-9C CONNMANHAT×5KillBrooke Johnsonset Emilia Kuzniar+2.0
1910-9MANHATMANHAT×5AceManhattan+3.0
2011-9MANHATMANHAT×5Attack errHanley Schmidt+3.1
2112-9MANHATMANHAT×5Attack errAnnabelle Denomme+3.1
2213-9MANHATMANHAT×5Attack errHanley Schmidt+2.9
2313-10MANHATC CONNKillTeamset Team+1.7
2414-10C CONNMANHATKillEmilia Kuzniarset Ori Briger+2.2
2514-11MANHATC CONNKillHanley Schmidtset Team+1.7
2615-11C CONNMANHATKillOri Brigerset Team+2.2
2715-12MANHATC CONNKillTeamset Team+1.7
2816-12C CONNMANHATAttack errMadison Fulgencio+2.2
2916-13MANHATC CONN×5Serve errManhattan+1.7
3016-14C CONNC CONN×5Attack errTeam+2.9
3116-15C CONN
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.4
3216-16C CONNC CONN×5KillTeamset Team+3.7
3316-17C CONNC CONN×5AceCentral Conn. St.aced Anna Duncan+3.8
3417-17C CONNMANHATServe errCentral Conn. St.+2.8
3517-18MANHATC CONNAttack errTeam+2.9
3618-18C CONNMANHATServe errCentral Conn. St.+3.0
3719-18MANHAT
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+4.7
3819-19MANHATC CONN×3KillHanley Schmidtset Team+3.3
3919-20C CONNC CONN×3Bad setEmilia Kuzniar+4.8
4019-21C CONNC CONN×3KillTeamset Team+4.5
4120-21C CONNMANHATKillEmilia Kuzniarset Team+2.8
4220-22MANHATC CONNKillTeamset Team+3.5
4321-22C CONNMANHAT×4KillHanna Kaczynskaset Ori Briger+2.9
4422-22MANHATMANHAT×4KillHanna Kaczynskaset Julia Pfleger+5.9
4523-22MANHATMANHAT×4AceManhattan+7.6
4624-22MANHATMANHAT×4Attack errTeam+7.7
4724-23MANHATC CONNBlockedKaitlyn Doyleblk Hanley Schmidt, Team+3.1
4825-23C CONNMANHATKillHanna Kaczynskaset Anna Duncan+7.7
Set 2
10-1C CONNC CONNBlockedTeamblk Hanley Schmidt, Team+2.7
21-1C CONNMANHATServe errCentral Conn. St.+2.0
31-2MANHATC CONNKillTeamset Team+2.0
42-2C CONNMANHATKillTeamset Ori Briger+2.1
52-3MANHATC CONNKillTeamset Team+2.0
63-3C CONNMANHATServe errCentral Conn. St.+2.1
74-3MANHATMANHATKillTeamset Emilia Kuzniar+3.1
84-4MANHATC CONNKillTeamset Team+2.2
94-5C CONNC CONNAceCentral Conn. St.+3.0
105-5C CONNMANHATServe errCentral Conn. St.+2.2
116-5MANHATMANHATKillBrooke Johnsonset Emilia Kuzniar+3.3
126-6MANHATC CONNKillTeamset Team+2.3
136-7C CONNC CONNAttack errBrooke Johnson+3.1
147-7C CONNMANHATKillBrooke Johnsonset Emilia Kuzniar+2.3
158-7MANHATMANHATAttack errTeam+3.4
168-8MANHATC CONNKillAubrey Stitcherset Team+2.4
178-9C CONNC CONNKillHanley Schmidtset Annabelle Denomme+3.3
189-9C CONNMANHATServe errCentral Conn. St.+2.5
1910-9MANHATMANHATAttack errTeam+3.7
2010-10MANHATC CONNKillAubrey Stitcherset Team+2.6
2111-10C CONNMANHATKillTeamset Team+2.8
2211-11MANHATC CONN×3Serve errManhattan+2.7
2311-12C CONNC CONN×3BlockedTeamblk Team, Hanley Schmidt+3.7
2411-13C CONNC CONN×3KillTeamset Team+3.5
2512-13C CONNMANHATKillHanna Kaczynskaset Ori Briger+2.5
2613-13MANHATMANHATAttack errTeam+3.9
2713-14MANHATC CONNServe errManhattan+2.9
2814-14C CONNMANHATKillTeamset Ori Briger+3.0
2914-15MANHATC CONNKillTeamset Team+3.0
3015-15C CONNMANHATKillBrooke Johnsonset Emilia Kuzniar+3.1
3116-15MANHATMANHATKillBrooke Johnsonset Ori Briger+4.7
3216-16MANHATC CONNKillAubrey Stitcherset Team+3.3
3317-16C CONNMANHATServe errCentral Conn. St.+3.7
3418-16MANHATMANHATAceManhattan+5.2
3518-17MANHATC CONNAttack errBrooke Johnson+3.3
3618-18C CONNC CONNKillTeamset Team+5.2
3719-18C CONNMANHATKillBrooke Johnsonset Ori Briger+4.2
3820-18MANHATMANHATBlockedHanley Schmidtblk Team, Hanna Kaczynska+6.0
3920-19MANHATC CONNKillHanley Schmidtset Team+3.6
4020-20C CONNC CONNAceCentral Conn. St.+6.1
4121-20C CONNMANHATKillHanna Kaczynskaset Ori Briger+5.1
4221-21MANHATC CONNKillTeamset Team+4.8
4321-22C CONNC CONNKillTeamset Team+7.5
4422-22C CONNMANHAT×3Serve errCentral Conn. St.+5.3
4523-22MANHATMANHAT×3KillTeamset Ori Briger+9.4
4624-22MANHATMANHAT×3KillTeam+9.5
4724-23MANHATC CONNKillTeamset Team+3.8
4824-24C CONNC CONNKillTeam+12.1
4925-24C CONNMANHATKillTeamset Ori Briger+8.7
5025-25MANHATC CONNKillTeamset Team+8.7
5126-25C CONNMANHATKillHanna Kaczynskaset Ori Briger+8.7
5226-26MANHATC CONN×3KillTeamset Team+8.7
5326-27C CONNC CONN×3Attack errTeam+11.2
5426-28C CONNC CONN×3KillAubrey Stitcherset Team+10.3
Set 3
10-1MANHATC CONNKillTeamset Team+2.2
20-2C CONNC CONNAttack errTeam+2.9
31-2C CONNMANHATKillHanna Kaczynskaset Anna Duncan+2.1
41-3MANHATC CONNBlockedHanna Kaczynskablk Team+2.1
51-4C CONNC CONNAceCentral Conn. St.+2.8
62-4C CONNMANHATKillTeamset Ori Briger+1.9
73-4MANHATMANHATAttack errTeam+3.0
83-5MANHATC CONNKillTeamset Team+2.2
94-5C CONNMANHATServe errCentral Conn. St.+2.2
104-6MANHATC CONNKillAubrey Stitcherset Team+2.3
115-6C CONNMANHAT×3Attack errAubrey Stitcher+2.3
126-6MANHATMANHAT×3Attack errTeam+3.5
137-6MANHATMANHAT×3KillTeamset Emilia Kuzniar+3.8
147-7MANHATC CONNKillTeamset Team+2.6
157-8C CONNC CONNAttack errMargaret OBrien+3.6
168-8C CONNMANHAT×3KillTeamset Team+2.7
179-8MANHATMANHAT×3Attack errHanley Schmidt+4.0
1810-8MANHATMANHAT×3BlockedHanley Schmidtblk Margaret OBrien, Team+4.2
1910-9MANHATC CONNKillTeamset Team+2.8
2010-10C CONNC CONNAttack errTeam+4.0
2111-10C CONNMANHATServe errCentral Conn. St.+3.1
2212-10MANHATMANHATAceManhattanaced Meg Berkland+4.4
2312-11MANHATC CONNKillHanley Schmidtset Team+3.0
2413-11C CONNMANHATServe errCentral Conn. St.+3.4
2513-12MANHATC CONNKillTeamset Team+3.1
2614-12C CONNMANHATServe errCentral Conn. St.+3.5
2714-13MANHATC CONNKillTeamset Team+3.2
2815-13C CONNMANHATKillOri Brigerset Ori Briger+3.7
2915-14MANHATC CONN×3KillAubrey Stitcherset Team+3.3
3015-15C CONNC CONN×3Attack errTeam+4.9
3115-16C CONNC CONN×3KillAubrey Stitcherset Team+5.0
3216-16C CONNMANHATServe errCentral Conn. St.+3.7
3316-17MANHATC CONNServe errManhattan+3.8
3417-17C CONNMANHATKillTeamset Emilia Kuzniar+3.9
3517-18MANHATC CONNKillHanley Schmidtset Team+4.1
3618-18C CONNMANHATKillTeamset Team+4.2
3718-19MANHATC CONNKillHanley Schmidtset Team+4.4
3818-20C CONNC CONNAttack errTeam+5.7
3919-20C CONNMANHAT×7KillHanna Kaczynskaset Ori Briger+3.7
4020-20MANHATMANHAT×7AceManhattanaced Meg Berkland+6.6
4121-20MANHATMANHAT×7Attack errHanley Schmidt+7.9
4222-20MANHATMANHAT×7KillTeamset Ori Briger+8.1
4323-20MANHATMANHAT×7KillTeam+6.7
4424-20MANHATMANHAT×7KillTeamset Ori Briger+3.9
4525-20MANHATMANHAT×7AceManhattanaced Meg Berkland+1.2
Set 4
10-1C CONNC CONNAceCentral Conn. St.+3.7
21-1C CONNMANHATKillTeamset Ori Briger+2.7
32-1MANHATMANHATKillTeamset Ori Briger+4.0
42-2MANHATC CONN×4BlockedHanna Kaczynskablk Team, Aubrey Stitcher+2.8
52-3C CONNC CONN×4Attack errTeam+3.8
62-4C CONNC CONN×4AceCentral Conn. St.aced Anna Duncan+3.7
72-5C CONNC CONN×4KillAubrey Stitcherset Gabriella Burdier+3.4
83-5C CONNMANHATKillTeamset Ori Briger+2.3
93-6MANHATC CONNKillAubrey Stitcherset Team+2.5
104-6C CONNMANHATAttack errAubrey Stitcher+2.4
114-7MANHATC CONNKillHanley Schmidtset Team+2.5
125-7C CONNMANHATKillTeamset Team+2.4
135-8MANHATC CONNKillTeamset Team+2.6
145-9C CONNC CONNKillHanley Schmidtset Annabelle Denomme+3.2
156-9C CONNMANHATServe errCentral Conn. St.+2.1
166-10MANHATC CONNKillTeamset Team+2.3
177-10C CONNMANHATKillTeamset Emilia Kuzniar+2.1
187-11MANHATC CONN×4KillTeamset Team+2.4
197-12C CONNC CONN×4Attack errHanna Kaczynska+2.7
207-13C CONNC CONN×4KillTeamset Team+2.1
217-14C CONNC CONN×4KillAubrey Stitcher+1.6
228-14C CONNMANHATKillTeamset Ori Briger+0.8
238-15MANHATC CONN×3KillTeamset Team+1.1
248-16C CONNC CONN×3Attack errTeam+1.0
258-17C CONNC CONN×3Attack errTeam+0.6
269-17C CONNMANHAT×5KillHanna Kaczynskaset Ori Briger+0.3
2710-17MANHATMANHAT×5KillTeamset Team+0.6
2811-17MANHATMANHAT×5Attack errTeam+0.9
2912-17MANHATMANHAT×5Attack errAubrey Stitcher+1.4
3013-17MANHATMANHAT×5Attack errTeam+2.1
3113-18MANHATC CONNKillAubrey Stitcherset Team+2.0
3214-18C CONNMANHATBlockedHanley Schmidtblk Hanna Kaczynska, Team+1.5
3315-18MANHATMANHATKillTeamset Emilia Kuzniar+2.9
3415-19MANHATC CONNAttack errTeam+2.8
3516-19C CONNMANHATKillMargaret OBrienset Emilia Kuzniar+2.1
3617-19MANHATMANHATAceManhattan+4.2
3717-20MANHATC CONN×3KillTeamset Team+3.9
3817-21C CONNC CONN×3BlockedMargaret OBrienblk Team+3.9
3917-22C CONNC CONN×3Attack errTeam+2.4
4018-22C CONNMANHATKillTeamset Ori Briger+0.9
4118-23MANHATC CONNKillHanley Schmidtset Team+1.5
4218-24C CONNC CONNAttack errTeam+0.8
4319-24C CONNMANHATServe errCentral Conn. St.+0.1
4419-25MANHATC CONNKillTeamset Team+1.4
Set 5
10-1MANHATC CONN×4KillTeamset Team+6.0
20-2C CONNC CONN×4KillAubrey Stitcherset Team+7.9
30-3C CONNC CONN×4AceCentral Conn. St.aced Anna Duncan+7.1
40-4C CONNC CONN×4KillAubrey Stitcherset Team+6.1
51-4C CONNMANHAT×3KillTeamset Ori Briger+3.8
62-4MANHATMANHAT×3Attack errAubrey Stitcher+6.6
73-4MANHATMANHAT×3KillHanna Kaczynskaset Ori Briger+8.1
83-5MANHATC CONN×3KillAubrey Stitcherset Team+6.4
93-6C CONNC CONN×3AceCentral Conn. St.aced Anna Duncan+7.9
103-7C CONNC CONN×3KillAubrey Stitcherset Annabelle Denomme+6.4
114-7C CONNMANHATKillTeamset Ori Briger+3.8
124-8MANHATC CONNKillHanley Schmidtset Team+4.7
135-8C CONNMANHATKillTeamset Ori Briger+3.7
145-9MANHATC CONNAttack errTeam+4.8
155-10C CONNC CONNBlockedHanna Kaczynskablk Team+4.6
166-10C CONNMANHATAttack errTeam+2.1
176-11MANHATC CONNBlockedTeamblk Team+3.2
187-11C CONNMANHAT×4KillHanna Kaczynskaset Ori Briger+1.9
198-11MANHATMANHAT×4KillTeamset Ori Briger+4.4
209-11MANHATMANHAT×4KillTeamset Team+7.1
2110-11MANHATMANHAT×4BlockedTeamblk Team, Hanna Kaczynska+10.8
2210-12MANHATC CONNServe errManhattan+10.1
2311-12C CONNMANHATServe errCentral Conn. St.+8.2
2411-13MANHATC CONNKillTeamset Team+11.4
2512-13C CONNMANHATKillTeamset Team+8.3
2612-14MANHATC CONNKillAubrey Stitcherset Team+13.2
2713-14C CONNMANHAT×4Bad setTeam+7.5
2814-14MANHATMANHAT×4AceManhattanaced Aubrey Stitcher+25.3
2915-14MANHATMANHAT×4KillTeamset Team+27.6
3016-14MANHATMANHAT×4Attack errHanley Schmidt+30.0

Score shown after each rally, Manhattan first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).