FinalSat, Oct 31, 2026

Sacred Heart def. Merrimack 3–0

RallyIQ pre-match: Sacred Heart 90.9% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 31, 12:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Sacred Heart won at Merrimack 3-0 (25-20, 25-21, 25-12) on Sat, Oct 31, 2026. Sacred Heart's Lauren Hubert led with 13 kills, and Miliani Villarreal added 15 digs.

Data through · final Oct 31

Set123Sets
SACHRT2525253
MERMCK2021120

Match story · written from the play-by-play

A 14–0 run in the third set broke it open for Sacred Heart.

Win probability never moved more than 1.6 points on one rally; Merrimack topped out at 9% in Set 1. RallyIQ gave Sacred Heart 91% before first serve.

Sacred HeartMerrimack
  • Break %+16.4 pts
    60.844.4

    On serve: 45/74 against 24/54 (Merrimack sideout 39.2%).

  • Hitting+.147
    .265.118

    Kills and errors: 45–14 vs 34–19.

  • Longest run+9
    145

    Down 1–2 in the third set, Sacred Heart scored 14 straight to lead 15–2. That set ended 25–12.

Merrimack above 50Sacred Heart belowMax swing 1.6%

Sacred HeartMerrimack

Aces
Sacred Heart 6·Merrimack 2
Serve err
Sacred Heart 0·Merrimack 3
Blocks
Sacred Heart 4·Merrimack 62 BS · 4 BA vs 2 BS · 8 BA
Digs
Sacred Heart 62·Merrimack 50

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Merrimack above 50 · Sacred Heart below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+1.6% MERMCKrally 128 · set 3

Biggest swing: 1.6% to Merrimack — set 1, SACHRT 19-18 MERMCK. Raissa Antonio stuffed by Kaitlyn Oxceus. MERMCK win probability 7% → 9%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

SACHRT 91.3%8.7% MERMCK

Sacred Heart wins

3-0
46.7%
3-1
31.4%
3-2
13.1%

Merrimack wins

3-0
1.1%
3-1
2.6%
3-2
5.0%
SACHRT break %
50.9% vs this opp
MERMCK break %
40.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Kaitlyn OxceusBlock+1.6%

    Raissa Antonio stuffed by Kaitlyn Oxceus

    Set 1 · SACHRT 19-18 MERMCK · MERMCK 7% → 9%

  2. 02
    Lauren HubertKill+1.5%

    Kill by Lauren Hubert (set by Addy Franz)

    Set 1 · SACHRT 20-18 MERMCK · SACHRT 91% → 92%

  3. 03
    Kaitlyn OxceusBad set+1.4%

    Bad set by Kaitlyn Oxceus

    Set 1 · SACHRT 21-18 MERMCK · SACHRT 92% → 94%

  4. 04
    Lauren HubertAttack error+1.3%

    Attack error by Lauren Hubert

    Set 1 · SACHRT 15-14 MERMCK · MERMCK 8% → 9%

  5. 05
    Ryleigh ShortKill+1.2%

    Kill by Ryleigh Short (set by Addy Franz)

    Set 1 · SACHRT 22-19 MERMCK · SACHRT 93% → 94%

  6. 06
    Molly NewtonKill+1.1%

    Kill by Molly Newton (set by Addy Franz)

    Set 1 · SACHRT 17-14 MERMCK · SACHRT 92% → 93%

  7. 07
    Molly NewtonKill+1.1%

    Kill by Molly Newton (set by Addy Franz)

    Set 1 · SACHRT 16-14 MERMCK · SACHRT 91% → 92%

  8. 08
    Lauren HubertKill+1.0%

    Kill by Lauren Hubert (set by Addy Franz)

    Set 1 · SACHRT 19-16 MERMCK · SACHRT 92% → 94%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
312220.50003010000015
313539.20510013000013
310130.30010012002111
36113.38500020111.57.5
3204.5003210800003
2145-.60000000111.52.5
3003.0007201500002
3000–000200000
2113.000000000001
Team totals4514117.265416062224475
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
39225.280100300009
35325.080010820006
3026-.333000002233
3206.3331611700003
31310-.200000200212
3002.000000910000
39218.3890000004211
35315.133000100005
3005.0004001400000
3014-.2501000200000
3000–001100000
2238-.125000010002
11011.000001100001
1002.000000000000
1000–100000000
1000–000200000
Team totals3419127.118322350628653

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Sacred Heart vs Merrimack

Season series · Sacred Heart leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 14 SACHRT · MERMCK 5

Set 1

25-20

Longest run 4 SACHRTMERMCK 4

Set 2

25-21

Longest run 9 SACHRTMERMCK 5

Set 3

25-12

Longest run 14 SACHRTMERMCK 2

Bars above the line = Merrimack leads, below = Sacred Heart leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Sacred Heart

SlotSideout %Break %
1
60%6/10
67%10/15
2
43%6/14
73%16/22
3
83%5/6
50%5/10
4
50%5/10
17%1/6
5
50%4/8
71%10/14
6
67%4/6
43%3/7
All
56%30/54
61%45/74

Merrimack

SlotSideout %Break %
1
46%6/13
17%1/6
2
27%6/22
60%9/15
3
50%5/10
33%3/9
4
33%4/12
17%1/6
5
67%4/6
56%5/9
6
36%4/11
56%5/9
All
39%29/74
44%24/54

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

128 rallies

#SACHRT-MERMCKSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0SACHRTSACHRT×3KillLauren Hubertset Addy Franz+0.9
22-0SACHRTSACHRT×3Attack errMia Izzo+0.8
33-0SACHRTSACHRT×3Attack errMckenna Shotwell+0.7
43-1SACHRTMERMCKKillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+0.6
54-1MERMCKSACHRTKillLauren Hubertset Miliani Villarreal+0.6
65-1SACHRTSACHRTAttack errTamilore Afolalu+0.6
75-2SACHRTMERMCKKillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+0.5
86-2MERMCKSACHRT×4Attack errTamilore Afolalu+0.5
97-2SACHRTSACHRT×4AceSacred Heart+0.5
108-2SACHRTSACHRT×4AceSacred Heartaced Mckenna Shotwell+0.4
119-2SACHRTSACHRT×4Bad setKaitlyn Oxceus+0.3
129-3SACHRTMERMCKKillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+0.2
1310-3MERMCKSACHRTBlockedKaitlyn Oxceusblk Raissa Antonio+0.2
1410-4SACHRTMERMCK×4KillTamilore Afolaluset Devon Lowe+0.2
1510-5MERMCKMERMCK×4KillMaiella Blandinset Devon Lowe+0.4
1610-6MERMCKMERMCK×4BlockedAbbie Hagedornblk Maiella Blandin, Kaitlyn Oxceus+0.5
1710-7MERMCKMERMCK×4KillMaiella Blandinset Devon Lowe+0.6
1811-7MERMCKSACHRTKillRaissa Antonioset Addy Franz+0.6
1912-7SACHRTSACHRTAttack errMckenna Shotwell+0.5
2012-8SACHRTMERMCK×3Attack errRyleigh Short+0.4
2112-9MERMCKMERMCK×3KillMckenna Shotwellset Devon Lowe+0.7
2212-10MERMCKMERMCK×3KillMaiella Blandinset Devon Lowe+0.9
2313-10MERMCKSACHRTKillRyleigh Shortset Addy Franz+0.8
2413-11SACHRTMERMCKBlockedRyleigh Shortblk Mia Izzo, Maiella Blandin+0.8
2514-11MERMCKSACHRTKillMolly Newtonset Addy Franz+0.8
2615-11SACHRTSACHRTKillRyleigh Shortset Miliani Villarreal+0.8
2715-12SACHRTMERMCK×3KillMckenna Shotwellset Sophia DeBonis+0.6
2815-13MERMCKMERMCK×3Bad setLauren Hubert+1.0
2915-14MERMCKMERMCK×3Attack errLauren Hubert+1.3
3016-14MERMCKSACHRTKillMolly Newtonset Addy Franz+1.1
3117-14SACHRTSACHRTKillMolly Newtonset Addy Franz+1.1
3217-15SACHRTMERMCKKillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+0.9
3318-15MERMCKSACHRTKillLauren Hubertset Addy Franz+1.0
3418-16SACHRTMERMCKKillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+0.9
3519-16MERMCKSACHRTKillLauren Hubertset Addy Franz+1.0
3619-17SACHRTMERMCKKillTamilore Afolaluset Devon Lowe+0.9
3719-18MERMCKMERMCKBlockedRaissa Antonioblk Kaitlyn Oxceus+1.6
3820-18MERMCKSACHRTKillLauren Hubertset Addy Franz+1.5
3921-18SACHRTSACHRTBad setKaitlyn Oxceus+1.4
4021-19SACHRTMERMCKBad setAddy Franz+1.0
4122-19MERMCKSACHRTKillRyleigh Shortset Addy Franz+1.2
4223-19SACHRTSACHRTKillLauren Hubertset Addy Franz+0.9
4323-20SACHRTMERMCKKillMaiella Blandinset Devon Lowe+0.4
4424-20MERMCKSACHRTKillMolly Newtonset Addy Franz+0.7
4525-20SACHRTSACHRTKillRyleigh Shortset Addy Franz+0.2
Set 2
11-0MERMCKSACHRTServe errMerrimack+0.5
22-0SACHRTSACHRTBlockedMia Izzoblk Abbie Hagedorn, Raissa Antonio+0.5
32-1SACHRTMERMCK×3KillMckenna Shotwellset Sophia DeBonis+0.5
42-2MERMCKMERMCK×3KillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+0.7
52-3MERMCKMERMCK×3KillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+0.8
63-3MERMCKSACHRTKillAbbie Hagedornset Miliani Villarreal+0.6
73-4SACHRTMERMCKKillSophia DeBonisset Jocelyn Hammerstrand+0.7
84-4MERMCKSACHRTKillAbbie Hagedornset Addy Franz+0.6
95-4SACHRTSACHRTKillRyleigh Shortset Addy Franz+0.7
105-5SACHRTMERMCKKillTamilore Afolaluset Sophia DeBonis+0.6
115-6MERMCKMERMCKAttack errRaissa Antonio+0.8
126-6MERMCKSACHRT×9KillRyleigh Shortset Miliani Villarreal+0.6
137-6SACHRTSACHRT×9KillLauren Hubertset Addy Franz+0.7
148-6SACHRTSACHRT×9KillLauren Hubertset Devon Lowe+0.6
159-6SACHRTSACHRT×9Attack errTamilore Afolalu+0.6
1610-6SACHRTSACHRT×9Attack errMaiella Blandin+0.5
1711-6SACHRTSACHRT×9Attack errDevon Lowe+0.4
1812-6SACHRTSACHRT×9KillMolly Newtonset Addy Franz+0.3
1913-6SACHRTSACHRT×9Attack errFabiola Betancourt+0.2
2014-6SACHRTSACHRT×9KillRyleigh Shortset Addy Franz+0.1
2114-7SACHRTMERMCKKillMaiella Blandinset Devon Lowe+0.1
2214-8MERMCKMERMCKBlockedMolly Newtonblk Kaitlyn Oxceus, Maiella Blandin+0.2
2315-8MERMCKSACHRTKillRyleigh Shortset Miliani Villarreal+0.2
2415-9SACHRTMERMCK×3KillMaiella Blandinset Ella Maldonado+0.1
2515-10MERMCKMERMCK×3Serve errMerrimack+0.2
2615-11MERMCKMERMCK×3BlockedLauren Hubertblk Mia Izzo, Maiella Blandin+0.3
2716-11MERMCKSACHRT×5Serve errMerrimack+0.3
2817-11SACHRTSACHRT×5AceSacred Heartaced Mckenna Shotwell+0.3
2918-11SACHRTSACHRT×5KillLauren Hubertset Addy Franz+0.2
3019-11SACHRTSACHRT×5AceSacred Heartaced Sienna Franks+0.1
3120-11SACHRTSACHRT×5BlockedMia Izzoblk Molly Newton+0.1
3220-12SACHRTMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Ella Maldonado·
3320-13MERMCKMERMCKKillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+0.1
3421-13MERMCKSACHRTKillMolly Newtonset Addy Franz+0.1
3521-14SACHRTMERMCK×5KillMckenna Shotwellset Sophia DeBonis·
3621-15MERMCKMERMCK×5KillFabiola Betancourtset Ella Maldonado+0.1
3721-16MERMCKMERMCK×5AceMerrimack+0.1
3821-17MERMCKMERMCK×5Attack errLauren Hubert+0.3
3921-18MERMCKMERMCK×5KillMia Izzoset Sophia DeBonis+0.5
4022-18MERMCKSACHRTKillAbbie Hagedornset Addy Franz+0.5
4123-18SACHRTSACHRTKillAddy Franzset Fabiola Betancourt+0.3
4223-19SACHRTMERMCKAttack errRaissa Antonio+0.1
4323-20MERMCKMERMCKAttack errRaissa Antonio+0.3
4424-20MERMCKSACHRTKillAbbie Hagedornset Addy Franz+0.5
4524-21SACHRTMERMCKKillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+0.2
4625-21MERMCKSACHRTKillRyleigh Shortset Miliani Villarreal+0.3
Set 3
11-0SACHRTSACHRTAceSacred Heart+0.3
21-1SACHRTMERMCKKillFabiola Betancourtset Sophia DeBonis+0.2
31-2MERMCKMERMCKAttack errLauren Hubert+0.3
42-2MERMCKSACHRT×14KillRyleigh Shortset Addy Franz+0.3
53-2SACHRTSACHRT×14KillAbbie Hagedornset Addy Franz+0.3
64-2SACHRTSACHRT×14KillAbbie Hagedornset Miliani Villarreal+0.3
75-2SACHRTSACHRT×14Attack errFabiola Betancourt+0.2
86-2SACHRTSACHRT×14KillAddy Franzset Sophia DeBonis+0.2
97-2SACHRTSACHRT×14Attack errKaitlyn Oxceus+0.2
108-2SACHRTSACHRT×14KillAbbie Hagedornset Lauren Hubert+0.1
119-2SACHRTSACHRT×14Attack errJocelyn Hammerstrand+0.1
1210-2SACHRTSACHRT×14KillAbbie Hagedornset Addy Franz+0.1
1311-2SACHRTSACHRT×14KillLauren Hubert·
1412-2SACHRTSACHRT×14Attack errFabiola Betancourt·
1513-2SACHRTSACHRT×14BlockedJocelyn Hammerstrandblk Abbie Hagedorn, Molly Newton·
1614-2SACHRTSACHRT×14KillAbbie Hagedornset Addy Franz·
1715-2SACHRTSACHRT×14AceRyleigh Shortaced Fabiola Betancourt·
1815-3SACHRTMERMCKKillTamilore Afolaluset Elizabeth Kenney·
1915-4MERMCKMERMCKBlockedLauren Hubertblk Kaitlyn Oxceus·
2016-4MERMCKSACHRTKillLauren Hubertset Addy Franz·
2116-5SACHRTMERMCKKillMaiella Blandinset Devon Lowe·
2217-5MERMCKSACHRTKillKayla Jonesset Addy Franz·
2317-6SACHRTMERMCKKillMaiella Blandinset Devon Lowe·
2418-6MERMCKSACHRTKillAbbie Hagedornset Addy Franz·
2518-7SACHRTMERMCKAttack errKayla Jones·
2618-8MERMCKMERMCKAceMerrimack·
2719-8MERMCKSACHRT×3Attack errMckenna Shotwell·
2820-8SACHRTSACHRT×3KillRyleigh Shortset Abbie Hagedorn·
2921-8SACHRTSACHRT×3KillRyleigh Shortset Addy Franz·
3021-9SACHRTMERMCKKillVaia Tsioutsioulasset Sophia DeBonis·
3122-9MERMCKSACHRTServe errMerrimack·
3222-10SACHRTMERMCKKillTamilore Afolaluset Sophia DeBonis·
3323-10MERMCKSACHRTKillLauren Hubertset Addy Franz·
3423-11SACHRTMERMCKKillSophia DeBonisset Addy Franz·
3523-12MERMCKMERMCKKillMaiella Blandinset Ella Maldonado·
3624-12MERMCKSACHRTKillLauren Hubertset Addy Franz·
3725-12SACHRTSACHRTAttack errMaiella Blandin·

Score shown after each rally, Sacred Heart first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).