FinalFri, Oct 23, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Illinois St. def. Southern Ill. 3–0

RallyIQ pre-match: Illinois St. 80.9% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 23, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Illinois St. won at Southern Ill. 3-0 (25-20, 25-17, 25-16) on Fri, Oct 23, 2026. Illinois St.'s Jillian Gregory led with 13 kills, and Samantha Bunch added 10 digs.

Data through · final Oct 23

Set123Sets
ILL ST2525253
SIU2017160

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Jillian Gregory hit .478 with 13 kills as Illinois St. rolled past Southern Ill.

No single rally moved win probability more than 2.1 points. Southern Ill. peaked at 25% in Set 1. These are the stats that built the gap. Illinois St. went in as RallyIQ's 81% pick.

Illinois St.Southern Ill.
  • Break %+18.4 pts
    54.836.4

    40 of 73 on serve vs 20 of 55, so Southern Ill.'s sideout was 45.2%.

  • Hitting+.268
    .363.095

    Kills and errors: 42–9 vs 28–19.

  • Longest run+5
    94

    Up 6–5 in the second set, Illinois St. scored 9 straight to make it 15–5. Final score of the set: 25–17.

Southern Ill. above 50Illinois St. belowMax swing 2.1%

Illinois St.Southern Ill.

Aces
Illinois St. 3·Southern Ill. 3
Serve err
Illinois St. 11·Southern Ill. 9
Blocks
Illinois St. 3·Southern Ill. 51 BS · 4 BA vs 1 BS · 8 BA
Digs
Illinois St. 44·Southern Ill. 38

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Southern Ill. above 50 · Illinois St. below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+2.1% SIUrally 128 · set 3

Biggest swing: 2.1% to Southern Ill. — set 1, ILL ST 14-13 SIU. Ruth Ziegler stuffed by Chloe Anderson & Ella Swansiger. SIU win probability 16% → 18%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

ILL ST 77.9%22.1% SIU

Illinois St. wins

3-0
29.6%
3-1
29.6%
3-2
18.8%

Southern Ill. wins

3-0
3.7%
3-1
7.4%
3-2
10.9%
ILL ST break %
46.5% vs this opp
SIU break %
40.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Ruth Ziegler stuffed by Chloe Anderson & Ella Swansiger

    Set 1 · ILL ST 14-13 SIU · SIU 16% → 18%

  2. 02
    Ella KohnenBad set+2.0%

    Bad set by Ella Kohnen

    Set 1 · ILL ST 1-4 SIU · SIU 23% → 25%

  3. 03
    Illinois St.Ace+1.9%

    Illinois St. ace

    Set 1 · ILL ST 6-6 SIU · ILL ST 78% → 80%

  4. 04
    Ruth ZieglerKill+1.9%

    Kill by Ruth Ziegler (set by Ella Craggs)

    Set 1 · ILL ST 16-13 SIU · ILL ST 84% → 85%

  5. 05
    Ruth ZieglerKill+1.9%

    Kill by Ruth Ziegler (set by Ella Craggs)

    Set 1 · ILL ST 4-5 SIU · ILL ST 76% → 78%

  6. 06
    Ella SwansigerAttack error+1.9%

    Attack error by Ella Swansiger

    Set 1 · ILL ST 8-7 SIU · ILL ST 80% → 82%

  7. 07

    Kill by McKenzie Moeller (set by Ella McFarland)

    Set 1 · ILL ST 0-2 SIU · SIU 21% → 23%

  8. 08
    Illinois St.Ace+1.7%

    Illinois St. ace on Ella Swansiger

    Set 1 · ILL ST 9-7 SIU · ILL ST 82% → 83%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
313223.4780132100014
38219.316001601019
39116.500000200009
34110.300011200216
3103.333100000001
3000–1211900001
36318.167000100217
3000–1301900000
3000–8021010000
21011.000000100001
2000–000000000
1001.000301000000
1000–000200000
1000–001000000
Team totals42991.3633731144314375
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
313729.2070117000014
34613-.154011100005
33220.050001610214
3206.333000100424
3006.0002200800000
3000–002300000
35419.053000001227
3000–413910001
2000–000100000
1102.500000000001
1000–000100000
1000–001100000
Team totals281995.095263938318553

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Illinois St. vs Southern Ill.

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 9 ILL ST · SIU 4

Set 1

25-20

Longest run 4 ILL STSIU 2

Set 2

25-17

Longest run 9 ILL STSIU 4

Set 3

25-16

Longest run 4 ILL STSIU 4

Bars above the line = Southern Ill. leads, below = Illinois St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Illinois St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
70%7/10
55%6/11
2
60%6/10
40%4/10
3
46%6/13
25%2/8
4
100%6/6
60%9/15
5
63%5/8
67%10/15
6
63%5/8
64%9/14
All
64%35/55
55%40/73

Southern Ill.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
55%6/11
36%4/11
2
67%6/9
33%3/9
3
43%6/14
45%5/11
4
63%5/8
33%3/9
5
24%5/21
38%3/8
6
50%5/10
29%2/7
All
45%33/73
36%20/55

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

128 rallies

#ILL ST-SIUSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1SIUSIUKillBeatriz Piaiaset Ella McFarland+1.7
20-2SIUSIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Ella McFarland+1.9
31-2SIUILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Samantha Bunch+1.4
41-3ILL STSIUServe errIllinois St.+1.6
51-4SIUSIUBad setElla Kohnen+2.0
62-4SIUILL STKillAbby Reckset Ella Kohnen+1.4
72-5ILL STSIUKillChloe Andersonset Ella McFarland+1.7
83-5SIUILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Craggs+1.5
94-5ILL STILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+1.9
104-6ILL STSIUServe errIllinois St.+1.7
115-6SIUILL STKillPeyton Turner+1.5
126-6ILL STILL STAceIllinois St.+1.9
136-7ILL STSIUServe errIllinois St.+1.7
147-7SIUILL ST×3KillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+1.5
158-7ILL STILL ST×3Attack errElla Swansiger+1.9
169-7ILL STILL ST×3AceIllinois St.aced Ella Swansiger+1.7
179-8ILL STSIUServe errIllinois St.+1.4
1810-8SIUILL ST×3Serve errSouthern Ill.+1.4
1911-8ILL STILL ST×3KillJillian Gregoryset Samantha Bunch+1.6
2012-8ILL STILL ST×3Attack errElla Swansiger+1.4
2112-9ILL STSIUKillNatalie Vanceset Ella McFarland+1.0
2213-9SIUILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+1.1
2313-10ILL STSIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Ella McFarland+1.0
2413-11SIUSIUAceSouthern Ill.aced Jillian Gregory+1.6
2514-11SIUILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Kohnen+1.4
2614-12ILL STSIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Ella McFarland+1.3
2714-13SIUSIUBlockedRuth Zieglerblk Chloe Anderson, Ella Swansiger+2.1
2815-13SIUILL ST×4KillJillian Gregoryset Ella Craggs+1.7
2916-13ILL STILL ST×4KillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+1.9
3017-13ILL STILL ST×4AceIllinois St.aced Jillian Shaneyfelt+1.5
3118-13ILL STILL ST×4Bad setElla McFarland+1.1
3218-14ILL STSIUServe errIllinois St.+0.7
3319-14SIUILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Samantha Bunch+0.9
3419-15ILL STSIUKillNatalie Vanceset Ella McFarland+0.7
3519-16SIUSIUKillNatalie Vanceset Jillian Shaneyfelt+1.3
3620-16SIUILL ST×4KillOliwia Caputaset Ella Craggs+1.3
3721-16ILL STILL ST×4KillOliwia Caputaset Samantha Bunch+1.1
3822-16ILL STILL ST×4Attack errBeatriz Piaia+0.6
3923-16ILL STILL ST×4KillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+0.3
4023-17ILL STSIUKillBeatriz Piaiaset Ella McFarland+0.1
4123-18SIUSIUAttack errOliwia Caputa+0.2
4224-18SIUILL STKillOliwia Caputaset Ella Kohnen+0.3
4324-19ILL STSIUBlockedJillian Ferrillblk Natalie Vance+0.1
4424-20SIUSIUAttack errJillian Gregory+0.2
4525-20SIUILL STKillAyla Klingenbergset Ella Kohnen+0.3
Set 2
11-0ILL STILL STAttack errBeatriz Piaia+1.2
22-0ILL STILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Kohnen+1.1
32-1ILL STSIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Ella McFarland+0.9
43-1SIUILL STServe errSouthern Ill.+0.9
53-2ILL STSIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Ella McFarland+0.9
63-3SIUSIUAttack errJillian Gregory+1.3
74-3SIUILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+1.0
84-4ILL STSIUServe errIllinois St.+1.0
95-4SIUILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Kohnen+1.0
106-4ILL STILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Craggs+1.2
116-5ILL STSIUBlockedRuth Zieglerblk Chloe Anderson, Natalie Vance+1.0
127-5SIUILL ST×9KillJillian Gregoryset Ella Craggs+1.0
138-5ILL STILL ST×9Attack errMcKenzie Moeller+1.1
149-5ILL STILL ST×9KillOliwia Caputaset Ella Craggs+0.9
1510-5ILL STILL ST×9KillOliwia Caputaset Samantha Bunch+0.8
1611-5ILL STILL ST×9BlockedNatalie Vanceblk Abby Reck, Ruth Ziegler+0.6
1712-5ILL STILL ST×9KillAbby Reckset Ella Craggs+0.5
1813-5ILL STILL ST×9Attack errNatalie Vance+0.3
1914-5ILL STILL ST×9BlockedBeatriz Piaiablk Abby Reck, Ruth Ziegler+0.2
2015-5ILL STILL ST×9Attack errNatalie Vance+0.1
2115-6ILL STSIUAttack errAbby Reck+0.1
2216-6SIUILL STServe errSouthern Ill.+0.1
2316-7ILL STSIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Ella McFarland+0.1
2416-8SIUSIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Ella McFarland+0.1
2517-8SIUILL STServe errSouthern Ill.+0.1
2617-9ILL STSIUServe errIllinois St.+0.1
2718-9SIUILL STKillOliwia Caputaset Audrey Clark+0.1
2819-9ILL STILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Audrey Clark+0.1
2919-10ILL STSIUServe errIllinois St.·
3020-10SIUILL STAttack errMcKenzie Moeller+0.1
3120-11ILL STSIU×4KillMcKenzie Moellerset Ella McFarland·
3220-12SIUSIU×4AceSouthern Ill.+0.1
3320-13SIUSIU×4KillChloe Andersonset Ella McFarland+0.1
3420-14SIUSIU×4KillAlexandria Arringtonset Ella McFarland+0.2
3521-14SIUILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Audrey Clark+0.2
3621-15ILL STSIUServe errIllinois St.+0.1
3722-15SIUILL STServe errSouthern Ill.+0.2
3822-16ILL STSIUKillNatalie Vanceset Ella McFarland+0.1
3923-16SIUILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+0.1
4024-16ILL STILL STBlockedBeatriz Piaiablk Oliwia Caputa+0.1
4124-17ILL STSIUServe errIllinois St.·
4225-17SIUILL STAttack errMcKenzie Moeller·
Set 3
11-0SIUILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+0.5
22-0ILL STILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Samantha Bunch+0.6
32-1ILL STSIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Ella McFarland+0.5
42-2SIUSIUKillElla Swansigerset Jillian Shaneyfelt+0.6
53-2SIUILL STServe errSouthern Ill.+0.5
64-2ILL STILL STAttack errMcKenzie Moeller+0.6
74-3ILL STSIUKillNatalie Vanceset Ella McFarland+0.5
85-3SIUILL ST×4Serve errSouthern Ill.+0.5
96-3ILL STILL ST×4KillAbby Reckset Ella Craggs+0.5
107-3ILL STILL ST×4KillAbby Reck+0.5
118-3ILL STILL ST×4KillOliwia Caputaset Ella Craggs+0.4
128-4ILL STSIUServe errIllinois St.+0.3
139-4SIUILL STAttack errNatalie Vance+0.3
149-5ILL STSIU×3KillBeatriz Piaiaset Ella McFarland+0.3
159-6SIUSIU×3Attack errOliwia Caputa+0.5
169-7SIUSIU×3KillMcKenzie Moeller+0.6
1710-7SIUILL ST×4Serve errSouthern Ill.+0.5
1811-7ILL STILL ST×4Attack errMcKenzie Moeller+0.5
1912-7ILL STILL ST×4Attack errBeatriz Piaia+0.4
2013-7ILL STILL ST×4Bad setElla McFarland+0.3
2113-8ILL STSIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Ella McFarland+0.2
2213-9SIUSIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Ella McFarland+0.4
2314-9SIUILL ST×3Attack errMcKenzie Moeller+0.3
2415-9ILL STILL ST×3KillJillian Ferrillset Ayla Klingenberg+0.3
2516-9ILL STILL ST×3KillJillian Gregoryset Samantha Bunch+0.2
2616-10ILL STSIUBad setSamantha Bunch+0.1
2717-10SIUILL ST×3KillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+0.2
2818-10ILL STILL ST×3KillJillian Gregory+0.1
2919-10ILL STILL ST×3KillJillian Gregoryset Ella Kohnen+0.1
3019-11ILL STSIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Ella McFarland·
3120-11SIUILL STAttack errMcKenzie Moeller·
3221-11ILL STILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Samantha Bunch·
3321-12ILL STSIU×4BlockedRuth Zieglerblk Natalie Vance, Chloe Anderson·
3421-13SIUSIU×4AceSouthern Ill.aced Samantha Bunch·
3521-14SIUSIU×4KillBeatriz Piaiaset Ella McFarland·
3621-15SIUSIU×4KillElla Swansigerset Jillian Shaneyfelt+0.1
3722-15SIUILL STServe errSouthern Ill.+0.1
3823-15ILL STILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs·
3923-16ILL STSIUKillElla Swansigerset Jillian Shaneyfelt·
4024-16SIUILL STAttack errBeatriz Piaia·
4125-16ILL STILL STKillOliwia Caputaset Ella Craggs·

Score shown after each rally, Illinois St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).