Final · 5 setsSat, Oct 31, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Southern Ill. def. Illinois St. 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Illinois St. 89.7% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 31, 6:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Southern Ill. won at Illinois St. 3-2 (25-18, 17-25, 15-25, 27-25, 15-10) on Sat, Oct 31, 2026. Southern Ill.'s Ella Swansiger led with 24 kills, and Jillian Shaneyfelt added 19 digs.

Data through · final Oct 31

Set12345Sets
SIU25171527153
ILL ST18252525102

Match story · written from the play-by-play

5 aces from McKenzie Moeller, and Southern Ill. needed each of them.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are Southern Ill.'s RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Illinois St. went in at 90% by RallyIQ.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 4 · Southern Ill. 6–11 Illinois St.

    Southern Ill.'s low point. Southern Ill. then won 21 of the next 35 rallies and the set 27–25.

    Southern Ill. 2% → 28%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Southern Ill. 8–9 Illinois St.

    3 straight Southern Ill. points turned an 8–9 deficit into an 11–9 lead. The match swung to Southern Ill.

    Southern Ill. 25% → 64%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Southern Ill. 11–10 Illinois St.

    4 of the last 4 rallies went to Southern Ill., enough to take the set 15–10 and win the match 3–2.

    Southern Ill. 54% → >99%

Illinois St. above 50Southern Ill. belowMax swing 16.4%

Southern Ill.Illinois St.

Sideout %
Southern Ill. 57.3·Illinois St. 59.6
Break %
Southern Ill. 40.4·Illinois St. 42.7
Hitting
Southern Ill. .176·Illinois St. .173
Longest run
Southern Ill. 6·Illinois St. 5

Ella Swansiger
12 kills inside the turning points, 24 K and .313 for the match (26 points).

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Illinois St. above 50 · Southern Ill. below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+16.4% SIUrally 202 · set 5

Biggest swing: 16.4% to Southern Ill. — set 5, SIU 13-10 ILL ST. Kill by Ella Swansiger (set by Jillian Shaneyfelt). ILL ST win probability 31% → 15%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

SIU 12.6%87.4% ILL ST

Southern Ill. wins

3-0
1.8%
3-1
3.9%
3-2
6.9%

Illinois St. wins

3-0
40.4%
3-1
31.6%
3-2
15.4%
SIU break %
39.2% vs this opp
ILL ST break %
48.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Ella SwansigerKill+16.4%

    Kill by Ella Swansiger (set by Jillian Shaneyfelt)

    Set 5 · SIU 13-10 ILL ST · SIU 69% → 85%

  2. 02

    Kill by McKenzie Moeller (set by Jillian Shaneyfelt)

    Set 5 · SIU 11-9 ILL ST · SIU 48% → 64%

  3. 03
    Ella SwansigerKill+14.2%

    Kill by Ella Swansiger (set by Alexandria Arrington)

    Set 5 · SIU 10-9 ILL ST · SIU 34% → 48%

  4. 04

    Kill by McKenzie Moeller (set by Isabella Del Real)

    Set 5 · SIU 12-10 ILL ST · SIU 54% → 69%

  5. 05
    Southern Ill.Ace+11.0%

    Southern Ill. ace on Emilija Arsic

    Set 5 · SIU 14-10 ILL ST · SIU 85% → 96%

  6. 06
    Southern Ill.Ace+11.0%

    Southern Ill. ace on Emilija Arsic

    Set 5 · SIU 7-6 ILL ST · SIU 32% → 43%

  7. 07
    McKenzie MoellerAttack error+10.8%

    Attack error by McKenzie Moeller

    Set 5 · SIU 8-9 ILL ST · ILL ST 64% → 75%

  8. 08

    Emilija Arsic stuffed by Beatriz Piaia & Ida Almkvist

    Set 5 · SIU 4-2 ILL ST · SIU 38% → 48%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
524464.3130008004226
59750.04035216302115
55016.31300010094.59.5
5229.000000001857
53220.0502701160052.55.5
5001.0001211820002
55028.179000500638
5000–9011940000
3000–011000001
3000–001200000
2000–501300000
Team totals4815188.17645888891341899
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
517546.26100051010.517.5
516841.19500050010.516.5
5131157.035222195010.515.5
51011.00026512000006
52011.182011300214
1023-.667000000000
518745.24400030010.518.5
5102.50029021000001
5000–8122600001
4318.250000102236
4000–000800000
2000–000320000
1000–101000000
Team totals7134214.17366991038286103

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Southern Ill. vs Illinois St.

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 SIU · ILL ST 5

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 6 SIUILL ST 4

Set 2

17-25

Longest run 5 SIUILL ST 3

Set 3

15-25

Longest run 2 SIUILL ST 5

Set 4

27-25

Longest run 6 SIUILL ST 3

Set 5

15-10

Longest run 4 SIUILL ST 3

Bars above the line = Illinois St. leads, below = Southern Ill. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Southern Ill.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
46%12/26
38%6/16
2
56%10/18
62%16/26
3
83%10/12
29%4/14
4
63%10/16
17%2/12
5
67%10/15
29%4/14
6
44%7/16
47%8/17
All
57%59/103
40%40/99

Illinois St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%11/22
65%17/26
2
50%10/20
31%5/16
3
67%10/15
41%7/17
4
83%10/12
17%2/12
5
71%10/14
41%7/17
6
50%8/16
40%6/15
All
60%59/99
43%44/103

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

202 rallies

#SIU-ILL STSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0ILL STSIUKillElla Swansigerset Alexandria Arrington+0.9
22-0SIUSIUAttack errJillian Gregory+1.3
32-1SIUILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+0.9
43-1ILL STSIUServe errSamantha Bunch+1.1
53-2SIUILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+0.9
64-2ILL STSIUServe errElla Craggs+1.1
74-3SIUILL STServe errSouthern Ill.+1.0
85-3ILL STSIUBlockedRuth Zieglerblk Beatriz Piaia, Ida Almkvist+1.2
95-4SIUILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+1.0
106-4ILL STSIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Lillian Dempkey+1.2
116-5SIUILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Ella Craggs+1.0
126-6ILL STILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Ella Kohnen+1.3
137-6ILL STSIU×3KillMcKenzie Moellerset Lillian Dempkey+1.1
148-6SIUSIU×3BlockedAyla Klingenbergblk Chloe Anderson, Ella Swansiger+1.6
159-6SIUSIU×3Attack errJillian Ferrill+1.7
169-7SIUILL ST×4KillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+1.1
179-8ILL STILL ST×4KillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+1.5
189-9ILL STILL ST×4AceEmilija Arsicaced Jillian Shaneyfelt+1.5
199-10ILL STILL ST×4AceEmilija Arsicaced Isabella Del Real+1.4
2010-10ILL STSIU×6KillMcKenzie Moellerset Jillian Shaneyfelt+1.1
2111-10SIUSIU×6AceSouthern Ill.aced Emilija Arsic+1.7
2212-10SIUSIU×6KillElla Swansigerset Alexandria Arrington+1.9
2313-10SIUSIU×6BlockedAyla Klingenbergblk Chloe Anderson+2.0
2414-10SIUSIU×6AceSouthern Ill.aced Emilija Arsic+2.0
2515-10SIUSIU×6Attack errJillian Ferrill+1.9
2615-11SIUILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+1.1
2716-11ILL STSIUBlockedJillian Gregoryblk Ella Swansiger, Chloe Anderson+1.6
2817-11SIUSIUAttack errJillian Ferrill+1.7
2917-12SIUILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Kohnen+0.9
3018-12ILL STSIU×3KillElla Swansigerset Alexandria Arrington+1.3
3119-12SIUSIU×3KillAlexandria Arringtonset Jillian Shaneyfelt+1.3
3220-12SIUSIU×3Attack errRuth Ziegler+0.9
3320-13SIUILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Craggs+0.3
3420-14ILL STILL STBlockedAlexandria Arringtonblk Emilija Arsic, Abby Reck+0.6
3521-14ILL STSIUKillAlexandria Arringtonset Lillian Dempkey+0.8
3622-14SIUSIUBlockedEmilija Arsicblk Beatriz Piaia, Alexandria Arrington+0.6
3722-15SIUILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Ella Craggs+0.2
3823-15ILL STSIUServe errAbby Reck+0.3
3923-16SIUILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Ella Craggs+0.1
4023-17ILL STILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Ella Kohnen+0.2
4124-17ILL STSIUKillChloe Andersonset Lillian Dempkey+0.4
4224-18SIUILL STServe errSouthern Ill.+0.1
4325-18ILL STSIUKillChloe Andersonset Alexandria Arrington+0.2
Set 2
10-1SIUILL ST×3KillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+1.5
20-2ILL STILL ST×3KillEmilija Arsicset Ella Craggs+1.8
30-3ILL STILL ST×3AceAbby Reckaced Jillian Shaneyfelt+1.5
41-3ILL STSIU×5Attack errRuth Ziegler+1.2
52-3SIUSIU×5BlockedEmilija Arsicblk Ella Swansiger, Chloe Anderson+1.9
63-3SIUSIU×5AceSouthern Ill.aced Peyton Turner+2.2
74-3SIUSIU×5AceSouthern Ill.aced Peyton Turner+2.6
85-3SIUSIU×5KillElla Swansigerset Alexandria Arrington+2.9
95-4SIUILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+2.0
105-5ILL STILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Samantha Bunch+2.5
116-5ILL STSIUKillElla Swansigerset Jillian Shaneyfelt+2.2
127-5SIUSIUKillElla Swansigerset Jillian Shaneyfelt+3.1
137-6SIUILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Ella Kohnen+2.2
148-6ILL STSIUBlockedJillian Ferrillblk Beatriz Piaia, Ida Almkvist+2.6
158-7SIUILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Kohnen+2.2
169-7ILL STSIUKillAlexandria Arringtonset Lillian Dempkey+2.7
179-8SIUILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Kohnen+2.3
189-9ILL STILL STKillElla Craggsset Emilija Arsic+2.9
1910-9ILL STSIUKillBeatriz Piaiaset Lillian Dempkey+2.6
2010-10SIUILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Craggs+2.3
2110-11ILL STILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+2.8
2211-11ILL STSIUAttack errEmilija Arsic+2.4
2312-11SIUSIUAttack errRuth Ziegler+3.5
2412-12SIUILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Ella Craggs+2.5
2512-13ILL STILL STBlockedMcKenzie Moellerblk Addisyn Pohl, Ruth Ziegler+3.1
2613-13ILL STSIUKillElla Swansigerset Alexandria Arrington+2.6
2713-14SIUILL ST×3KillEmilija Arsicset Ella Craggs+2.5
2813-15ILL STILL ST×3KillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+2.9
2913-16ILL STILL ST×3KillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+2.4
3014-16ILL STSIUKillIda Almkvistset McKenzie Moeller+1.8
3114-17SIUILL STKillAddisyn Pohlset Ella Kohnen+1.9
3214-18ILL STILL STAttack errElla Swansiger+1.9
3315-18ILL STSIUServe errEmilija Arsic+1.3
3415-19SIUILL ST×3KillJillian Gregoryset Ella Kohnen+1.5
3515-20ILL STILL ST×3AceSamantha Bunchaced McKenzie Moeller+1.3
3615-21ILL STILL ST×3KillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+0.7
3716-21ILL STSIUKillIda Almkvistset Alexandria Arrington+0.3
3816-22SIUILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+0.5
3917-22ILL STSIUBlockedJillian Gregoryblk Alexandria Arrington, Beatriz Piaia+0.3
4017-23SIUILL ST×3KillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+0.4
4117-24ILL STILL ST×3Attack errMcKenzie Moeller+0.2
4217-25ILL STILL ST×3Attack errMcKenzie Moeller·
Set 3
10-1ILL STILL ST×5AceElla Kohnenaced McKenzie Moeller+1.8
20-2ILL STILL ST×5KillEmilija Arsicset Samantha Bunch+1.6
30-3ILL STILL ST×5BlockedChloe Andersonblk Addisyn Pohl+1.4
40-4ILL STILL ST×5Attack errElla Swansiger+1.2
50-5ILL STILL ST×5AceElla Kohnenaced McKenzie Moeller+1.0
61-5ILL STSIUServe errElla Kohnen+0.7
72-5SIUSIUAttack errEmilija Arsic+1.2
82-6SIUILL ST×3Serve errSouthern Ill.+0.9
92-7ILL STILL ST×3KillJillian Gregoryset Samantha Bunch+1.0
102-8ILL STILL ST×3Attack errChloe Anderson+0.8
113-8ILL STSIUServe errEmilija Arsic+0.6
123-9SIUILL STKillAddisyn Pohlset Ella Kohnen+0.6
133-10ILL STILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Kohnen+0.6
144-10ILL STSIUKillElla Swansigerset Jillian Shaneyfelt+0.4
154-11SIUILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Kohnen+0.4
165-11ILL STSIUKillIda Almkvistset Alexandria Arrington+0.4
176-11SIUSIUAceSouthern Ill.aced Jillian Gregory+0.7
186-12SIUILL ST×3KillAbby Reckset Ella Craggs+0.6
196-13ILL STILL ST×3KillRuth Zieglerset Samantha Bunch+0.6
206-14ILL STILL ST×3Attack errMcKenzie Moeller+0.4
217-14ILL STSIUKillBeatriz Piaiaset Alexandria Arrington+0.2
228-14SIUSIUAttack errEmilija Arsic+0.4
238-15SIUILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+0.4
248-16ILL STILL STKillAddisyn Pohlset Ella Craggs+0.4
259-16ILL STSIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Alexandria Arrington+0.2
269-17SIUILL ST×4KillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+0.3
279-18ILL STILL ST×4AceElla Kohnenaced Jillian Shaneyfelt+0.2
289-19ILL STILL ST×4AceElla Kohnenaced Jillian Shaneyfelt+0.1
299-20ILL STILL ST×4BlockedMcKenzie Moellerblk Addisyn Pohl, Jillian Ferrill·
3010-20ILL STSIUServe errAudrey Clark·
3110-21SIUILL STServe errSouthern Ill.·
3211-21ILL STSIUKillElla Swansigerset Alexandria Arrington·
3311-22SIUILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Audrey Clark·
3412-22ILL STSIUKillElla Swansigerset Alexandria Arrington·
3512-23SIUILL STServe errSouthern Ill.·
3613-23ILL STSIUKillIda Almkvistset Alexandria Arrington·
3713-24SIUILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Craggs·
3814-24ILL STSIUKillBeatriz Piaiaset Alexandria Arrington·
3915-24SIUSIUAttack errRuth Ziegler·
4015-25SIUILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs·
Set 4
10-1SIUILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+1.0
21-1ILL STSIUKillElla Swansigerset Alexandria Arrington+1.1
32-1SIUSIUAttack errJillian Gregory+1.7
42-2SIUILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Kohnen+1.2
52-3ILL STILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+1.4
63-3ILL STSIUKillElla Swansigerset Alexandria Arrington+1.2
73-4SIUILL STKillAbby Reckset Ella Craggs+1.1
84-4ILL STSIUBlockedRuth Zieglerblk Beatriz Piaia, Ida Almkvist+1.2
94-5SIUILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Emilija Arsic+1.2
104-6ILL STILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Ella Craggs+1.4
115-6ILL STSIUKillBeatriz Piaiaset Alexandria Arrington+1.1
125-7SIUILL ST×3KillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+1.1
135-8ILL STILL ST×3KillEmilija Arsicset Ella Kohnen+1.2
145-9ILL STILL ST×3AceElla Kohnenaced Isabella Del Real+1.0
156-9ILL STSIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Alexandria Arrington+0.8
166-10SIUILL STServe errSouthern Ill.+0.8
176-11ILL STILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Samantha Bunch+0.8
187-11ILL STSIUAttack errJillian Gregory+0.6
198-11SIUSIUKillElla Swansigerset Alexandria Arrington+1.0
208-12SIUILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Kohnen+0.8
219-12ILL STSIUKillElla Swansigerset Alexandria Arrington+0.8
229-13SIUILL STAttack errElla Swansiger+0.9
2310-13ILL STSIUKillElla Swansigerset Jillian Shaneyfelt+0.8
2410-14SIUILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Craggs+0.9
2511-14ILL STSIUKillElla Swansigerset Alexandria Arrington+0.8
2611-15SIUILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+0.9
2712-15ILL STSIUKillElla Swansigerset McKenzie Moeller+0.8
2813-15SIUSIUKillBeatriz Piaia+1.5
2913-16SIUILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Samantha Bunch+1.2
3014-16ILL STSIU×6KillElla Swansigerset Alexandria Arrington+1.2
3115-16SIUSIU×6BlockedAddisyn Pohlblk McKenzie Moeller, Chloe Anderson+2.1
3216-16SIUSIU×6KillMcKenzie Moellerset Alexandria Arrington+2.6
3317-16SIUSIU×6BlockedJillian Ferrillblk Chloe Anderson, Alexandria Arrington+3.2
3418-16SIUSIU×6AceSouthern Ill.aced Emilija Arsic+3.6
3519-16SIUSIU×6BlockedEmilija Arsicblk Chloe Anderson, Alexandria Arrington+3.7
3619-17SIUILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+2.2
3719-18ILL STILL STBlockedAlexandria Arringtonblk Addisyn Pohl+3.3
3820-18ILL STSIUBlockedJillian Ferrillblk Chloe Anderson, McKenzie Moeller+3.3
3920-19SIUILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+2.6
4021-19ILL STSIUKillElla Swansigerset Alexandria Arrington+3.7
4122-19SIUSIUKillElla Swansigerset Alexandria Arrington+4.4
4222-20SIUILL ST×3KillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+2.2
4322-21ILL STILL ST×3BlockedElla Swansigerblk Abby Reck, Jillian Gregory+4.0
4422-22ILL STILL ST×3KillRuth Zieglerset Samantha Bunch+5.0
4523-22ILL STSIUKillElla Swansigerset Alexandria Arrington+5.0
4623-23SIUILL STServe errSouthern Ill.+4.5
4724-23ILL STSIUBlockedEmilija Arsicblk Ella Swansiger, Beatriz Piaia+6.5
4824-24SIUILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+6.5
4925-24ILL STSIUBlockedRuth Zieglerblk Ida Almkvist, Beatriz Piaia+6.5
5025-25SIUILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Ella Craggs+6.5
5126-25ILL STSIUKillMcKenzie Moellerset Alexandria Arrington+6.5
5227-25SIUSIUBlockedEmilija Arsicblk Chloe Anderson, Alexandria Arrington+9.3
Set 5
10-1SIUILL STAttack errMcKenzie Moeller+5.0
21-1ILL STSIUAttack errEmilija Arsic+5.6
31-2SIUILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+5.3
42-2ILL STSIU×3KillIda Almkvistset McKenzie Moeller+5.9
53-2SIUSIU×3BlockedJillian Ferrillblk Beatriz Piaia, Ida Almkvist+8.7
64-2SIUSIU×3BlockedEmilija Arsicblk Beatriz Piaia, Ida Almkvist+9.8
74-3SIUILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+6.6
85-3ILL STSIUAttack errJillian Ferrill+8.2
95-4SIUILL ST×3KillElla Kohnenset Jillian Shaneyfelt+6.9
105-5ILL STILL ST×3KillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+9.2
115-6ILL STILL ST×3KillJillian Gregoryset Ella Kohnen+8.7
126-6ILL STSIUServe errSamantha Bunch+7.3
137-6SIUSIUAceSouthern Ill.aced Emilija Arsic+11.0
147-7SIUILL STServe errSouthern Ill.+7.9
158-7ILL STSIUServe errElla Craggs+9.4
168-8SIUILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Samantha Bunch+8.5
178-9ILL STILL STAttack errMcKenzie Moeller+10.8
189-9ILL STSIU×3Attack errEmilija Arsic+9.0
1910-9SIUSIU×3KillElla Swansigerset Alexandria Arrington+14.2
2011-9SIUSIU×3KillMcKenzie Moellerset Jillian Shaneyfelt+15.9
2111-10SIUILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+9.8
2212-10ILL STSIU×4KillMcKenzie Moellerset Isabella Del Real+14.1
2313-10SIUSIU×4KillElla Swansigerset Jillian Shaneyfelt+16.4
2414-10SIUSIU×4AceSouthern Ill.aced Emilija Arsic+11.0
2515-10SIUSIU×4KillElla Swansigerset Jillian Shaneyfelt+4.0

Score shown after each rally, Southern Ill. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).