FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwayUAC-

0:3

HomeMOUNTAIN-WEST

Hawaii def. Central Ark. 3–0

(25-12, 25-17, 25-18)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
C ARK	12	17	18	0
HAWAII	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

HAWAII above 50 · C ARK below

Biggest swing: 0.3% to Central Ark. — set 1, C ARK 1-0 HAWAII. Kill by Kennady Martindale (set by Cameron McDaniel). HAWAII win probability 98% → 98%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

C ARK 1.7%98.3% HAWAII

Central Ark. wins

3-0

0.2%

3-1

0.4%

3-2

1.1%

Hawaii wins

3-0

68.8%

3-1

24.2%

3-2

5.3%

C ARK break %: 33.6% vs this opp
HAWAII break %: 49.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Kennady MartindaleKill+0.3%
Kill by Kennady Martindale (set by Cameron McDaniel)
Set 1 · C ARK 1-0 HAWAII · C ARK 2% → 2%
02
Maeli CormierKill+0.2%
Kill by Maeli Cormier (set by Sarah Carnathan)
Set 1 · C ARK 1-2 HAWAII · HAWAII 98% → 98%
03
Tali HakasKill+0.2%
Kill by Tali Hakas (set by Adrianna Arquette)
Set 1 · C ARK 1-3 HAWAII · HAWAII 98% → 99%
04
Maeli CormierKill+0.2%
Kill by Maeli Cormier (set by Adrianna Arquette)
Set 1 · C ARK 1-1 HAWAII · HAWAII 98% → 98%
05
C ARK serverAce+0.2%
Central Ark. ace on Victoria Leyva
Set 2 · C ARK 16-18 HAWAII · C ARK 0% → 1%
06
Nicole SargentAttack error+0.2%
Attack error by Nicole Sargent
Set 1 · C ARK 3-6 HAWAII · HAWAII 99% → 99%
07
Miliana SylvesterAttack error+0.2%
Miliana Sylvester stuffed by McKinzee Haas
Set 1 · C ARK 3-4 HAWAII · C ARK 1% → 2%
08
Maeli CormierAttack error+0.2%
Attack error by Maeli Cormier
Set 1 · C ARK 2-3 HAWAII · C ARK 1% → 2%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Central Ark.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
12Sarah CarnathanOH	3	9	11	38	-.053	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	1	10
4Kennady MartindaleMB	3	5	2	18	.167	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
8McKinzee HaasMB	3	1	1	9	.000	1	1	0	4	0	1	1	1.5	3.5
6Nicole SargentOPP	3	3	4	22	-.045	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	3
20Greyson ButtonMB	1	2	0	7	.286	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
23Sophie SkinnerS	1	0	1	2	-.500	5	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
2Trinity HamiltonOH	3	0	0	0	–	1	2	2	3	0	0	0	0	2
22Cameron McDanielL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	2	6	1	0	0	0	0
5Olivia KremerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	9	0	0	0	0	0
3Karlyn FrazierMB	2	2	0	10	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
16Tatelyn BrandsmaS	2	1	0	2	.500	11	0	0	4	1	0	1	0.5	1.5
10Ella ChaneyOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	0
11Fiona VanDykeOH	1	0	1	5	-.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		23	20	113	.027	22	3	5	43	3	2	4	4	47

Hawaiihome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
22Panna RatkaiOH	3	14	5	37	.243	0	0	1	10	0	0	0	14
12Miliana SylvesterMB	3	12	2	18	.556	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	12.5
9Tali HakasOH	3	8	2	26	.231	0	0	1	11	2	0	0	8
11Maeli CormierOPP	3	7	3	19	.211	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	7.5
19Rachel PurserMB	3	5	1	13	.308	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	6.5
3Adrianna ArquetteS	3	1	0	5	.200	38	1	3	8	0	4	2	4
15Leilani LopezL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	1
2Victoria LeyvaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	1	0	16	1	0	0	1
5Jaci MiyasakiL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	0
16Cameron HolcombL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
6Marnie UrsemMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
Team totals		47	13	118	.288	41	3	6	58	3	10	5	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 C ARK · HAWAII 6

Set 1

12-25

Longest run 1 C ARKHAWAII 4

Set 2

17-25

Longest run 4 C ARKHAWAII 6

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 3 C ARKHAWAII 5

Bars above the line = Hawaii leads, below = Central Ark. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Central Ark.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	44%7/16	40%4/10
2	40%6/15	30%3/10
3	38%6/16	40%4/10
4	50%5/10	25%2/8
5	50%5/10	0%0/5
6	67%4/6	17%1/6
All	45%33/73	29%14/49

Hawaii

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	70%7/10	38%3/8
2	50%7/14	70%16/23
3	75%6/8	45%5/11
4	100%5/5	64%9/14
5	83%5/6	29%2/7
6	83%5/6	50%5/10
All	71%35/49	55%40/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

122 rallies

Rally log

#	C ARK-HAWAII	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	C ARK	C ARK	Kill	Kennady Martindale	set Cameron McDaniel	+0.3
2	1-1	C ARK	HAWAII×3	Kill	Maeli Cormier	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.2
3	1-2	HAWAII	HAWAII×3	Kill	Maeli Cormier	set Sarah Carnathan	+0.2
4	1-3	HAWAII	HAWAII×3	Kill	Tali Hakas	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.2
5	2-3	HAWAII	C ARK	Attack err	Maeli Cormier		+0.2
6	2-4	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Miliana Sylvester	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
7	3-4	HAWAII	C ARK	Attack err	Miliana Sylvester	blk McKinzee Haas	+0.2
8	3-5	C ARK	HAWAII×3	Kill	Miliana Sylvester	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
9	3-6	HAWAII	HAWAII×3	Attack err	Nicole Sargent		+0.2
10	3-7	HAWAII	HAWAII×3	Kill	Panna Ratkai	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
11	4-7	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	Nicole Sargent	set Sophie Skinner	+0.1
12	4-8	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Panna Ratkai	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
13	4-9	HAWAII	HAWAII	Kill	Rachel Purser	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
14	5-9	HAWAII	C ARK	Attack err	Panna Ratkai		+0.1
15	5-10	C ARK	HAWAII×3	Attack err	Sophie Skinner		+0.1
16	5-11	HAWAII	HAWAII×3	Attack err	Kennady Martindale	blk Maeli Cormier, Rachel Purser	+0.1
17	5-12	HAWAII	HAWAII×3	Kill	Maeli Cormier	set Cameron McDaniel	+0.0
18	6-12	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	Greyson Button	set Sophie Skinner	+0.0
19	6-13	C ARK	HAWAII	Serve err	C ARK server		+0.0
20	6-14	HAWAII	HAWAII	Kill	Tali Hakas	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.0
21	7-14	HAWAII	C ARK	Serve err	HAWAII server		+0.0
22	7-15	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Tali Hakas	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.0
23	8-15	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	Kennady Martindale	set Cameron McDaniel	+0.0
24	8-16	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Maeli Cormier	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.0
25	8-17	HAWAII	HAWAII	Attack err	McKinzee Haas		+0.0
26	9-17	HAWAII	C ARK	Attack err	Miliana Sylvester	blk Sarah Carnathan	+0.0
27	9-18	C ARK	HAWAII×4	Kill	Miliana Sylvester	set Victoria Leyva	+0.0
28	9-19	HAWAII	HAWAII×4	Kill	Panna Ratkai	set Victoria Leyva	+0.0
29	9-20	HAWAII	HAWAII×4	Kill	Panna Ratkai		+0.0
30	9-21	HAWAII	HAWAII×4	Kill	Panna Ratkai	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.0
31	10-21	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	Nicole Sargent	set Sophie Skinner	+0.0
32	10-22	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Panna Ratkai	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.0
33	11-22	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Sophie Skinner	+0.0
34	11-23	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Panna Ratkai	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.0
35	11-24	HAWAII	HAWAII	Ace	HAWAII server	aced Cameron McDaniel	+0.0
36	12-24	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	Greyson Button	set Sophie Skinner	+0.0
37	12-25	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Maeli Cormier	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	HAWAII	HAWAII	Kill	Tali Hakas	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
2	1-1	HAWAII	C ARK	Attack err	Maeli Cormier		+0.1
3	1-2	C ARK	HAWAII×6	Kill	Miliana Sylvester	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
4	1-3	HAWAII	HAWAII×6	Kill	Tali Hakas	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
5	1-4	HAWAII	HAWAII×6	Kill	Miliana Sylvester	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
6	1-5	HAWAII	HAWAII×6	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan		+0.1
7	1-6	HAWAII	HAWAII×6	Kill	Miliana Sylvester	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
8	1-7	HAWAII	HAWAII×6	Kill	Miliana Sylvester		+0.0
9	2-7	HAWAII	C ARK	Attack err	Tali Hakas		+0.0
10	3-7	C ARK	C ARK	Kill	Nicole Sargent	set Olivia Kremer	+0.1
11	3-8	C ARK	HAWAII×3	Kill	Panna Ratkai	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.0
12	3-9	HAWAII	HAWAII×3	Attack err	Fiona VanDyke		+0.0
13	3-10	HAWAII	HAWAII×3	Kill	Miliana Sylvester	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.0
14	4-10	HAWAII	C ARK×3	Attack err	Panna Ratkai		+0.0
15	5-10	C ARK	C ARK×3	Attack err	Panna Ratkai		+0.0
16	6-10	C ARK	C ARK×3	Kill	Tatelyn Brandsma	set Karlyn Frazier	+0.1
17	6-11	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Miliana Sylvester	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.0
18	7-11	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Trinity Hamilton	+0.0
19	7-12	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Panna Ratkai	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.0
20	8-12	HAWAII	C ARK	Serve err	HAWAII server		+0.0
21	9-12	C ARK	C ARK	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.1
22	9-13	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Rachel Purser	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
23	10-13	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	Kennady Martindale	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.1
24	11-13	C ARK	C ARK	Kill	Kennady Martindale	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.1
25	11-14	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Tali Hakas	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
26	12-14	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	Kennady Martindale	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.1
27	12-15	C ARK	HAWAII×4	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan		+0.1
28	12-16	HAWAII	HAWAII×4	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan		+0.1
29	12-17	HAWAII	HAWAII×4	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan		+0.1
30	12-18	HAWAII	HAWAII×4	Attack err	Nicole Sargent		+0.0
31	13-18	HAWAII	C ARK×4	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.0
32	14-18	C ARK	C ARK×4	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set McKinzee Haas	+0.1
33	15-18	C ARK	C ARK×4	Kill	Sarah Carnathan		+0.1
34	16-18	C ARK	C ARK×4	Ace	C ARK server	aced Victoria Leyva	+0.2
35	16-19	C ARK	HAWAII×3	Attack err	Nicole Sargent		+0.1
36	16-20	HAWAII	HAWAII×3	Kill	Panna Ratkai	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
37	16-21	HAWAII	HAWAII×3	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan	blk Adrianna Arquette, Miliana Sylvester	+0.1
38	17-21	HAWAII	C ARK	Serve err	HAWAII server		+0.0
39	17-22	C ARK	HAWAII×4	Kill	Panna Ratkai	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.0
40	17-23	HAWAII	HAWAII×4	Kill	Rachel Purser	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.0
41	17-24	HAWAII	HAWAII×4	Ace	HAWAII server	aced Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.0
42	17-25	HAWAII	HAWAII×4	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan	blk Rachel Purser, Adrianna Arquette	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	C ARK	C ARK	Ace	C ARK server	aced Tali Hakas	+0.1
2	2-0	C ARK	C ARK	Ace	C ARK server	aced Tali Hakas	+0.1
3	2-1	C ARK	HAWAII×5	Serve err	C ARK server		+0.1
4	2-2	HAWAII	HAWAII×5	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan		+0.1
5	2-3	HAWAII	HAWAII×5	Kill	Rachel Purser	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
6	2-4	HAWAII	HAWAII×5	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan	blk Rachel Purser, Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
7	2-5	HAWAII	HAWAII×5	Kill	Panna Ratkai	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.0
8	3-5	HAWAII	C ARK×3	Kill	Karlyn Frazier	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.0
9	4-5	C ARK	C ARK×3	Kill	Karlyn Frazier	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.1
10	5-5	C ARK	C ARK×3	Attack err	Panna Ratkai		+0.1
11	5-6	C ARK	HAWAII	Attack err	Kennady Martindale		+0.1
12	6-6	HAWAII	C ARK	Serve err	HAWAII server		+0.1
13	6-7	C ARK	HAWAII	Serve err	C ARK server		+0.1
14	7-7	HAWAII	C ARK	Attack err	Tali Hakas	blk McKinzee Haas, Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.1
15	7-8	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Maeli Cormier	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
16	8-8	HAWAII	C ARK	Attack err	Tali Hakas		+0.1
17	8-9	C ARK	HAWAII×3	Kill	Miliana Sylvester	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
18	8-10	HAWAII	HAWAII×3	Attack err	Nicole Sargent		+0.1
19	8-11	HAWAII	HAWAII×3	Kill	Miliana Sylvester	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
20	9-11	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.0
21	9-12	C ARK	HAWAII	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan		+0.0
22	10-12	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.0
23	10-13	C ARK	HAWAII×3	Serve err	C ARK server		+0.0
24	10-14	HAWAII	HAWAII×3	Kill	Adrianna Arquette	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.0
25	10-15	HAWAII	HAWAII×3	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan		+0.0
26	11-15	HAWAII	C ARK	Attack err	Panna Ratkai		+0.0
27	11-16	C ARK	HAWAII	Serve err	C ARK server		+0.0
28	12-16	HAWAII	C ARK	Serve err	HAWAII server		+0.0
29	12-17	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Maeli Cormier	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.0
30	12-18	HAWAII	HAWAII	Kill	Tali Hakas	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.0
31	13-18	HAWAII	C ARK	Serve err	HAWAII server		+0.0
32	13-19	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Tali Hakas	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.0
33	13-20	HAWAII	HAWAII	Ace	HAWAII server	aced Ella Chaney	+0.0
34	14-20	HAWAII	C ARK	Attack err	Maeli Cormier		+0.0
35	14-21	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Miliana Sylvester	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.0
36	15-21	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	McKinzee Haas	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.0
37	15-22	C ARK	HAWAII	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan	blk Adrianna Arquette, Marnie Ursem	+0.0
38	15-23	HAWAII	HAWAII	Kill	Panna Ratkai	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.0
39	16-23	HAWAII	C ARK	Bad set	Adrianna Arquette		+0.0
40	16-24	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Panna Ratkai	set Victoria Leyva	+0.0
41	17-24	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.0
42	18-24	C ARK	C ARK	Attack err	Rachel Purser	blk Kennady Martindale, Karlyn Frazier	+0.0
43	18-25	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Rachel Purser	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Central Ark. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.