FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayUAC-

0:3

HomeMOUNTAIN-WEST

Hawaii def. Central Ark. 3–0

(25-14, 25-20, 28-26)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
C ARK	14	20	26	0
HAWAII	25	25	28	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

HAWAII above 50 · C ARK below

Biggest swing: 0.6% to Central Ark. — set 2, C ARK 18-15 HAWAII. Panna Ratkai stuffed by Annie Hopkins & McKinzee Haas. HAWAII win probability 98% → 97%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

C ARK 1.8%98.2% HAWAII

Central Ark. wins

3-0

0.2%

3-1

0.4%

3-2

1.2%

Hawaii wins

3-0

68.4%

3-1

24.4%

3-2

5.4%

C ARK break %: 33.6% vs this opp
HAWAII break %: 49.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Panna RatkaiAttack error+0.6%
Panna Ratkai stuffed by Annie Hopkins & McKinzee Haas
Set 2 · C ARK 18-15 HAWAII · C ARK 2% → 3%
02
Maeli CormierAttack error+0.6%
Attack error by Maeli Cormier
Set 2 · C ARK 17-15 HAWAII · C ARK 2% → 2%
03
McKinzee HaasAttack error+0.5%
Attack error by McKinzee Haas
Set 2 · C ARK 18-17 HAWAII · HAWAII 97% → 98%
04
McKinzee HaasAttack error+0.5%
Attack error by McKinzee Haas
Set 2 · C ARK 18-18 HAWAII · HAWAII 98% → 98%
05
McKinzee HaasAttack error+0.5%
Attack error by McKinzee Haas
Set 3 · C ARK 24-25 HAWAII · HAWAII 99% → 100%
06
Mano AntigaKill+0.5%
Kill by Mano Antiga (set by Adrianna Arquette)
Set 3 · C ARK 23-23 HAWAII · HAWAII 99% → 99%
07
Greyson ButtonKill+0.5%
Kill by Greyson Button (set by Tatelyn Brandsma)
Set 3 · C ARK 24-23 HAWAII · C ARK 1% → 1%
08
Adrianna ArquetteKill+0.5%
Kill by Adrianna Arquette (set by Tali Hakas)
Set 3 · C ARK 24-24 HAWAII · HAWAII 99% → 99%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Central Ark.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
12Sarah CarnathanOH	3	7	4	26	.115	0	0	0	4	0	5	2.5	9.5
20Greyson ButtonMB	3	5	4	13	.077	0	0	0	1	0	4	2	7
8McKinzee HaasMB	3	5	3	15	.133	1	0	0	4	0	3	1.5	6.5
16Tatelyn BrandsmaS	3	2	0	4	.500	24	3	2	5	0	0	0	5
22Cameron McDanielL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	6	1	0	0	0
6Nicole SargentOPP	1	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Ella ChaneyOH	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	7	1	0	0	0
5Olivia KremerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	5	1	0	0	0
2Trinity HamiltonOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	0
1Annie HopkinsOH	2	5	2	11	.273	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	6
11Fiona VanDykeOH	2	4	3	22	.045	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	4
4Kennady MartindaleMB	1	1	4	8	-.375	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		29	21	101	.079	28	3	6	34	3	14	7	60

Hawaiihome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
22Panna RatkaiOH	3	15	4	35	.314	0	2	2	7	0	2	1	18
12Miliana SylvesterMB	3	8	3	14	.357	0	0	0	1	0	4	2	10
19Rachel PurserMB	3	7	1	16	.375	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	8
3Adrianna ArquetteS	3	2	0	5	.400	34	0	1	8	0	1	0.5	2.5
5Jaci MiyasakiL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
9Tali HakasOH	2	1	0	3	.333	2	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
1Mano AntigaOH	3	9	3	19	.316	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	9
11Maeli CormierOPP	3	5	8	21	-.143	0	0	0	3	0	2	1	6
2Victoria LeyvaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	1	2	15	0	0	0	1
15Leilani LopezL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16Cameron HolcombL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0
8Manon BaudrillardS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		47	19	113	.248	41	3	8	44	3	12	6	78

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 C ARK · HAWAII 7

Set 1

14-25

Longest run 2 C ARKHAWAII 4

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 5 C ARKHAWAII 7

Set 3

26-28

Longest run 2 C ARKHAWAII 3

Bars above the line = Hawaii leads, below = Central Ark. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Central Ark.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%8/12	22%2/9
2	50%7/14	11%1/9
3	78%7/9	36%4/11
4	35%7/20	50%7/14
5	70%7/10	42%5/12
6	45%5/11	0%0/7
All	54%41/76	31%19/62

Hawaii

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	80%8/10	54%7/13
2	80%8/10	33%4/12
3	50%7/14	42%5/12
4	50%7/14	61%11/18
5	88%7/8	36%4/11
6	100%6/6	40%4/10
All	69%43/62	46%35/76

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

138 rallies

Rally log

#	C ARK-HAWAII	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	C ARK	HAWAII	Serve err	C ARK server		+0.2
2	1-1	HAWAII	C ARK	Serve err	HAWAII server		+0.2
3	1-2	C ARK	HAWAII	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan		+0.2
4	1-3	HAWAII	HAWAII	Attack err	Greyson Button		+0.2
5	2-3	HAWAII	C ARK	Serve err	HAWAII server		+0.2
6	2-4	C ARK	HAWAII	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan		+0.1
7	3-4	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.2
8	3-5	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Rachel Purser	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.2
9	3-6	HAWAII	HAWAII	Attack err	Kennady Martindale		+0.2
10	4-6	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	Greyson Button	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.1
11	4-7	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Tali Hakas	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
12	4-8	HAWAII	HAWAII	Attack err	Kennady Martindale		+0.1
13	5-8	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	McKinzee Haas	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.1
14	5-9	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Miliana Sylvester	set Victoria Leyva	+0.1
15	6-9	HAWAII	C ARK	Serve err	HAWAII server		+0.1
16	6-10	C ARK	HAWAII×3	Bad set	Tatelyn Brandsma		+0.1
17	6-11	HAWAII	HAWAII×3	Kill	Panna Ratkai	set Victoria Leyva	+0.1
18	6-12	HAWAII	HAWAII×3	Kill	Panna Ratkai	set Tali Hakas	+0.1
19	7-12	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.0
20	8-12	C ARK	C ARK	Attack err	Rachel Purser	blk Sarah Carnathan, Greyson Button	+0.1
21	8-13	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Panna Ratkai	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
22	8-14	HAWAII	HAWAII	Kill	Rachel Purser		+0.1
23	9-14	HAWAII	C ARK	Serve err	HAWAII server		+0.0
24	10-14	C ARK	C ARK	Attack err	Maeli Cormier		+0.1
25	10-15	C ARK	HAWAII	Serve err	C ARK server		+0.1
26	10-16	HAWAII	HAWAII	Attack err	Greyson Button		+0.1
27	11-16	HAWAII	C ARK	Serve err	HAWAII server		+0.0
28	11-17	C ARK	HAWAII×4	Kill	Maeli Cormier	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
29	11-18	HAWAII	HAWAII×4	Attack err	Greyson Button	blk Miliana Sylvester, Tali Hakas	+0.0
30	11-19	HAWAII	HAWAII×4	Attack err	Kennady Martindale		+0.0
31	11-20	HAWAII	HAWAII×4	Kill	Maeli Cormier	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.0
32	12-20	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	Tatelyn Brandsma	set Ella Chaney	+0.0
33	13-20	C ARK	C ARK	Attack err	Miliana Sylvester		+0.0
34	13-21	C ARK	HAWAII	Attack err	Kennady Martindale		+0.0
35	14-21	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	Kennady Martindale	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.0
36	14-22	C ARK	HAWAII×4	Kill	Miliana Sylvester	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.0
37	14-23	HAWAII	HAWAII×4	Kill	Miliana Sylvester		+0.0
38	14-24	HAWAII	HAWAII×4	Attack err	Nicole Sargent	blk Miliana Sylvester, Panna Ratkai	+0.0
39	14-25	HAWAII	HAWAII×4	Kill	Adrianna Arquette		+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	HAWAII	HAWAII	Kill	Panna Ratkai	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
2	1-1	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	Greyson Button	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.1
3	1-2	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Miliana Sylvester	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
4	1-3	HAWAII	HAWAII	Kill	Panna Ratkai	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
5	2-3	HAWAII	C ARK	Serve err	HAWAII server		+0.1
6	2-4	C ARK	HAWAII	Serve err	C ARK server		+0.1
7	3-4	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	McKinzee Haas	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.1
8	4-4	C ARK	C ARK	Attack err	Maeli Cormier		+0.2
9	4-5	C ARK	HAWAII×4	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan		+0.1
10	4-6	HAWAII	HAWAII×4	Ace	HAWAII server	aced Cameron McDaniel	+0.1
11	4-7	HAWAII	HAWAII×4	Kill	Mano Antiga	set Victoria Leyva	+0.1
12	4-8	HAWAII	HAWAII×4	Kill	Rachel Purser		+0.1
13	5-8	HAWAII	C ARK×5	Serve err	HAWAII server		+0.1
14	6-8	C ARK	C ARK×5	Attack err	Mano Antiga		+0.1
15	7-8	C ARK	C ARK×5	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.2
16	8-8	C ARK	C ARK×5	Attack err	Maeli Cormier		+0.2
17	9-8	C ARK	C ARK×5	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set McKinzee Haas	+0.3
18	9-9	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Mano Antiga	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.2
19	10-9	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	Annie Hopkins	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.2
20	10-10	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Miliana Sylvester	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.2
21	11-10	HAWAII	C ARK	Attack err	Miliana Sylvester		+0.2
22	11-11	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Mano Antiga	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.2
23	11-12	HAWAII	HAWAII	Kill	Panna Ratkai	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.3
24	12-12	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	Fiona VanDyke	set Olivia Kremer	+0.2
25	12-13	C ARK	HAWAII	Attack err	Fiona VanDyke		+0.2
26	12-14	HAWAII	HAWAII	Ace	HAWAII server	aced Ella Chaney	+0.2
27	13-14	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	McKinzee Haas	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.2
28	14-14	C ARK	C ARK	Ace	C ARK server	aced Cameron Holcomb	+0.3
29	14-15	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Panna Ratkai	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.2
30	15-15	HAWAII	C ARK×4	Kill	McKinzee Haas	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.3
31	16-15	C ARK	C ARK×4	Attack err	Panna Ratkai		+0.5
32	17-15	C ARK	C ARK×4	Attack err	Maeli Cormier		+0.6
33	18-15	C ARK	C ARK×4	Attack err	Panna Ratkai	blk Annie Hopkins, McKinzee Haas	+0.6
34	18-16	C ARK	HAWAII×7	Kill	Maeli Cormier	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.3
35	18-17	HAWAII	HAWAII×7	Attack err	McKinzee Haas		+0.5
36	18-18	HAWAII	HAWAII×7	Attack err	McKinzee Haas		+0.5
37	18-19	HAWAII	HAWAII×7	Attack err	Annie Hopkins		+0.5
38	18-20	HAWAII	HAWAII×7	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan	blk Maeli Cormier, Rachel Purser	+0.4
39	18-21	HAWAII	HAWAII×7	Kill	Maeli Cormier	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.3
40	18-22	HAWAII	HAWAII×7	Ace	HAWAII server	aced Olivia Kremer	+0.1
41	19-22	HAWAII	C ARK	Attack err	Maeli Cormier	blk Sarah Carnathan, McKinzee Haas	+0.1
42	19-23	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Mano Antiga	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
43	20-23	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.0
44	20-24	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Miliana Sylvester	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
45	20-25	HAWAII	HAWAII	Kill	Miliana Sylvester	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	C ARK	C ARK	Ace	C ARK server	aced Cameron Holcomb	+0.1
2	1-1	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Panna Ratkai	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
3	2-1	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	Fiona VanDyke	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.1
4	2-2	C ARK	HAWAII×3	Kill	Rachel Purser	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
5	2-3	HAWAII	HAWAII×3	Kill	Panna Ratkai	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
6	2-4	HAWAII	HAWAII×3	Kill	Maeli Cormier	set Victoria Leyva	+0.1
7	3-4	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.0
8	3-5	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Panna Ratkai	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.0
9	4-5	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	Annie Hopkins	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.0
10	5-5	C ARK	C ARK	Attack err	Mano Antiga		+0.1
11	5-6	C ARK	HAWAII	Serve err	C ARK server		+0.1
12	6-6	HAWAII	C ARK	Attack err	Maeli Cormier	blk Greyson Button, Sarah Carnathan	+0.1
13	6-7	C ARK	HAWAII	Attack err	Fiona VanDyke	blk Maeli Cormier, Miliana Sylvester	+0.1
14	7-7	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	Fiona VanDyke	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.1
15	7-8	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Mano Antiga	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
16	7-9	HAWAII	HAWAII	Attack err	Fiona VanDyke	blk Miliana Sylvester, Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
17	8-9	HAWAII	C ARK	Serve err	HAWAII server		+0.1
18	8-10	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Panna Ratkai	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
19	9-10	HAWAII	C ARK	Attack err	Panna Ratkai		+0.1
20	9-11	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Rachel Purser	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
21	10-11	HAWAII	C ARK	Attack err	Panna Ratkai	blk Annie Hopkins, McKinzee Haas	+0.1
22	11-11	C ARK	C ARK	Attack err	Maeli Cormier	blk Sarah Carnathan, Greyson Button	+0.1
23	11-12	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Panna Ratkai	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
24	12-12	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	Annie Hopkins	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.1
25	13-12	C ARK	C ARK	Attack err	Mano Antiga		+0.2
26	13-13	C ARK	HAWAII	Attack err	Greyson Button		+0.1
27	14-13	HAWAII	C ARK	Attack err	Maeli Cormier	blk Sarah Carnathan, Greyson Button	+0.1
28	14-14	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Mano Antiga	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
29	14-15	HAWAII	HAWAII	Kill	Panna Ratkai	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
30	15-15	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	Greyson Button	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.1
31	15-16	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Mano Antiga	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.1
32	16-16	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	Fiona VanDyke	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.1
33	17-16	C ARK	C ARK	Ace	C ARK server	aced Cameron Holcomb	+0.2
34	17-17	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Panna Ratkai	set Jaci Miyasaki	+0.1
35	18-17	HAWAII	C ARK	Bad set	Adrianna Arquette		+0.2
36	18-18	C ARK	HAWAII	Attack err	Annie Hopkins	blk Rachel Purser, Panna Ratkai	+0.2
37	19-18	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	Annie Hopkins	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.2
38	20-18	C ARK	C ARK	Kill	Greyson Button	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.3
39	20-19	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Rachel Purser	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.2
40	20-20	HAWAII	HAWAII	Kill	Rachel Purser	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.3
41	21-20	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	Annie Hopkins	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.3
42	22-20	C ARK	C ARK	Kill	Tatelyn Brandsma	set Cameron McDaniel	+0.4
43	22-21	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Mano Antiga	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.2
44	23-21	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.4
45	23-22	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Miliana Sylvester	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.2
46	23-23	HAWAII	HAWAII	Kill	Mano Antiga	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.5
47	24-23	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	Greyson Button	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.5
48	24-24	C ARK	HAWAII	Kill	Adrianna Arquette	set Tali Hakas	+0.5
49	24-25	HAWAII	HAWAII	Attack err	McKinzee Haas		+0.5
50	25-25	HAWAII	C ARK	Attack err	Miliana Sylvester		+0.3
51	25-26	C ARK	HAWAII	Serve err	C ARK server		+0.3
52	26-26	HAWAII	C ARK	Kill	McKinzee Haas	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.3
53	26-27	C ARK	HAWAII	Serve err	C ARK server		+0.3
54	26-28	HAWAII	HAWAII	Kill	Panna Ratkai	set Adrianna Arquette	+0.3

Score shown after each rally, Central Ark. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.