FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwayMVC

0:3

HomeHORIZON

NIU def. Murray St. 3–0

(25-21, 25-22, 25-16)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MURRAY	21	22	16	0
NIU	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

NIU above 50 · MURRAY below

Biggest swing: 3.0% to NIU — set 1, MURRAY 19-21 NIU. Kill by Rylea Alvin (set by Kylie Schulze). NIU win probability 85% → 88%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MURRAY 15.1%84.9% NIU

Murray St. wins

3-0

2.3%

3-1

4.9%

3-2

8.0%

NIU wins

3-0

36.9%

3-1

31.3%

3-2

16.6%

MURRAY break %: 36.4% vs this opp
NIU break %: 44.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Rylea AlvinKill+3.0%
Kill by Rylea Alvin (set by Kylie Schulze)
Set 1 · MURRAY 19-21 NIU · NIU 85% → 88%
02
MURRAY serverAce+2.8%
Murray St. ace on Ava Grevengoed
Set 2 · MURRAY 20-19 NIU · MURRAY 9% → 12%
03
Lily BurnettKill+2.8%
Kill by Lily Burnett
Set 1 · MURRAY 15-12 NIU · MURRAY 21% → 24%
04
Rylea AlvinKill+2.7%
Kill by Rylea Alvin (set by Kylie Schulze)
Set 2 · MURRAY 20-21 NIU · NIU 90% → 92%
05
Ava GrevengoedAttack error+2.7%
Ava Grevengoed stuffed by Lily Burnett & Alexa Watts
Set 1 · MURRAY 14-12 NIU · MURRAY 18% → 21%
06
Ava GrevengoedKill+2.7%
Kill by Ava Grevengoed (set by Kylie Schulze)
Set 2 · MURRAY 21-23 NIU · NIU 93% → 95%
07
Autumn FlynnKill+2.6%
Kill by Autumn Flynn (set by Kylie Schulze)
Set 1 · MURRAY 15-15 NIU · NIU 80% → 83%
08
NIU serverAce+2.5%
NIU ace on Samantha Nelson
Set 1 · MURRAY 15-14 NIU · NIU 78% → 80%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Murray St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
17Anne MakowskiOH	3	12	7	40	.125	0	0	2	2	1	0	2	1	13
5Lily BurnettOH	3	8	1	17	.412	0	0	1	3	0	1	2	2	10
15Alexa WattsOH	3	6	0	17	.353	0	0	1	5	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
12Ceren DurakOH	3	4	1	22	.136	0	0	2	4	3	0	0	0	4
11Maezi SnyderMB	3	2	1	10	.100	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	3.5
2Paige BrockS	3	0	0	2	.000	21	2	1	11	0	0	0	0	2
1Ada TamturkL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	8	0	2	10	0	0	0	0	0
4Melis AydinS	2	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
3Samantha NelsonL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0
22Bailey KeuschDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13Burcu GulomurMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		32	10	108	.204	31	2	9	38	6	2	6	5	59

NIUhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Katie PahlOH	3	12	2	26	.385	0	1	0	3	0	0	2	1	14
15Autumn FlynnMB	3	9	7	20	.100	1	0	2	0	0	2	0	2	11
8Rylea AlvinMB	3	10	2	18	.444	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	11
3Ava GrevengoedOH	3	7	2	20	.250	0	1	1	9	1	0	0	0	8
9Delaney SteersOH	3	5	3	19	.105	0	2	0	17	1	0	0	0	7
5Kylie SchulzeS	3	2	0	3	.667	23	1	3	9	0	0	0	0	3
14Naomi DowdOH	3	3	0	9	.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3
18Charlotte GramzowL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	1	1	11	0	0	0	0	1
7Ellie SmithS	3	0	0	1	.000	14	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		48	16	116	.276	42	6	7	52	2	2	4	4	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 MURRAY · NIU 7

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 3 MURRAYNIU 4

Set 2

22-25

Longest run 5 MURRAYNIU 4

Set 3

16-25

Longest run 2 MURRAYNIU 7

Bars above the line = NIU leads, below = Murray St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Murray St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	62%8/13	42%5/12
2	47%8/17	20%2/10
3	50%6/12	27%3/11
4	40%6/15	14%1/7
5	60%6/10	25%2/8
6	86%6/7	50%6/12
All	54%40/74	32%19/60

NIU

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	57%8/14	30%3/10
2	73%8/11	47%7/15
3	100%7/7	53%8/15
4	67%6/9	63%10/16
5	67%6/9	40%4/10
6	60%6/10	25%2/8
All	68%41/60	46%34/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

134 rallies

Rally log

#	MURRAY-NIU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	NIU	MURRAY	Serve err	NIU server		+1.1
2	2-0	MURRAY	MURRAY	Attack err	Delaney Steers		+1.8
3	2-1	MURRAY	NIU	Serve err	MURRAY server		+1.1
4	2-2	NIU	NIU	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Kylie Schulze	+1.6
5	3-2	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+1.2
6	3-3	MURRAY	NIU	Bad set	Samantha Nelson		+1.1
7	4-3	NIU	MURRAY	Attack err	Autumn Flynn		+1.2
8	4-4	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Kylie Schulze	+1.1
9	4-5	NIU	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Kylie Schulze	+1.6
10	5-5	NIU	MURRAY×3	Bad set	Kylie Schulze		+1.1
11	6-5	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Bad set	Ellie Smith		+1.9
12	7-5	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Attack err	Ava Grevengoed		+2.1
13	7-6	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Naomi Dowd	set Ellie Smith	+1.2
14	7-7	NIU	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Ellie Smith	+1.9
15	8-7	NIU	MURRAY×3	Kill	Ceren Durak	set Ada Tamturk	+1.4
16	9-7	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Attack err	Autumn Flynn	blk Anne Makowski, Maezi Snyder	+2.2
17	10-7	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Attack err	Autumn Flynn		+2.3
18	10-8	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Delaney Steers	set Ellie Smith	+1.3
19	11-8	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Ada Tamturk	+1.7
20	11-9	MURRAY	NIU×3	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Ellie Smith	+1.4
21	11-10	NIU	NIU×3	Ace	NIU server	aced Samantha Nelson	+2.2
22	11-11	NIU	NIU×3	Attack err	Anne Makowski	blk Rylea Alvin, Katie Pahl	+2.2
23	12-11	NIU	MURRAY	Serve err	NIU server		+1.6
24	12-12	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Kylie Schulze	+1.5
25	13-12	NIU	MURRAY×3	Attack err	Rylea Alvin	blk Anne Makowski, Lily Burnett	+1.7
26	14-12	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Attack err	Ava Grevengoed	blk Lily Burnett, Alexa Watts	+2.7
27	15-12	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Kill	Lily Burnett		+2.8
28	15-13	MURRAY	NIU×4	Serve err	MURRAY server		+1.5
29	15-14	NIU	NIU×4	Ace	NIU server	aced Samantha Nelson	+2.5
30	15-15	NIU	NIU×4	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Kylie Schulze	+2.6
31	15-16	NIU	NIU×4	Kill	Autumn Flynn		+2.5
32	16-16	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Alexa Watts	set Ada Tamturk	+1.8
33	16-17	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Kylie Schulze	+1.7
34	17-17	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Paige Brock	+1.9
35	17-18	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Ellie Smith	+1.9
36	18-18	NIU	MURRAY	Attack err	Autumn Flynn	blk Maezi Snyder	+2.0
37	18-19	MURRAY	NIU	Serve err	MURRAY server		+2.0
38	19-19	NIU	MURRAY	Serve err	NIU server		+2.2
39	19-20	MURRAY	NIU	Attack err	Lily Burnett		+2.2
40	19-21	NIU	NIU	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Kylie Schulze	+3.0
41	20-21	NIU	MURRAY	Serve err	NIU server		+1.7
42	20-22	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Charlotte Gramzow	+2.1
43	20-23	NIU	NIU	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Kylie Schulze	+2.2
44	21-23	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.8
45	21-24	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Kylie Schulze	+1.4
46	21-25	NIU	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Kylie Schulze	+0.7
Set 2
1	0-1	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Kylie Schulze	+0.7
2	0-2	NIU	NIU	Ace	NIU server	aced Ceren Durak	+0.9
3	1-2	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.6
4	1-3	MURRAY	NIU	Bad set	Alexa Watts		+0.6
5	2-3	NIU	MURRAY	Serve err	NIU server		+0.7
6	2-4	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Charlotte Gramzow	+0.6
7	3-4	NIU	MURRAY	Attack err	Autumn Flynn		+0.7
8	3-5	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Ellie Smith	+0.7
9	4-5	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Ceren Durak	set Paige Brock	+0.7
10	4-6	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Delaney Steers	set Ellie Smith	+0.7
11	5-6	NIU	MURRAY×4	Attack err	Delaney Steers		+0.7
12	6-6	MURRAY	MURRAY×4	Attack err	Rylea Alvin		+1.2
13	7-6	MURRAY	MURRAY×4	Kill	Lily Burnett	set Melis Aydin	+1.4
14	8-6	MURRAY	MURRAY×4	Kill	Lily Burnett	set Paige Brock	+1.5
15	8-7	MURRAY	NIU	Serve err	MURRAY server		+0.9
16	9-7	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+1.1
17	9-8	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Delaney Steers	set Ava Grevengoed	+1.0
18	10-8	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Lily Burnett	set Paige Brock	+1.2
19	10-9	MURRAY	NIU×4	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Rylea Alvin	+1.0
20	10-10	NIU	NIU×4	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Kylie Schulze	+1.5
21	10-11	NIU	NIU×4	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Charlotte Gramzow	+1.4
22	10-12	NIU	NIU×4	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Kylie Schulze	+1.3
23	11-12	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Lily Burnett	set Paige Brock	+0.9
24	11-13	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Kylie Schulze	+0.9
25	11-14	NIU	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Kylie Schulze	+1.1
26	12-14	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Paige Brock	+0.7
27	13-14	MURRAY	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+1.3
28	13-15	MURRAY	NIU	Serve err	MURRAY server		+1.0
29	13-16	NIU	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Ellie Smith	+1.2
30	14-16	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Ceren Durak	set Melis Aydin	+0.7
31	14-17	MURRAY	NIU	Serve err	MURRAY server		+0.8
32	14-18	NIU	NIU	Attack err	Anne Makowski		+0.9
33	15-18	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.5
34	15-19	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Ellie Smith	+0.6
35	16-19	NIU	MURRAY×5	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.5
36	17-19	MURRAY	MURRAY×5	Attack err	Katie Pahl		+1.1
37	18-19	MURRAY	MURRAY×5	Attack err	Katie Pahl		+1.6
38	19-19	MURRAY	MURRAY×5	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Ada Tamturk	+2.3
39	20-19	MURRAY	MURRAY×5	Ace	MURRAY server	aced Ava Grevengoed	+2.8
40	20-20	MURRAY	NIU	Attack err	Anne Makowski		+1.8
41	20-21	NIU	NIU	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Kylie Schulze	+2.7
42	21-21	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Lily Burnett	set Paige Brock	+1.9
43	21-22	MURRAY	NIU	Serve err	MURRAY server		+2.0
44	21-23	NIU	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Kylie Schulze	+2.7
45	22-23	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Ceren Durak	set Paige Brock	+1.3
46	22-24	MURRAY	NIU	Serve err	MURRAY server		+2.0
47	22-25	NIU	NIU	Ace	NIU server	aced Anne Makowski	+1.4
Set 3
1	1-0	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Lily Burnett	set Paige Brock	+0.4
2	2-0	MURRAY	MURRAY	Ace	MURRAY server	aced Delaney Steers	+0.6
3	2-1	MURRAY	NIU×3	Kill	Delaney Steers	set Kylie Schulze	+0.4
4	2-2	NIU	NIU×3	Ace	NIU server	aced Ceren Durak	+0.6
5	2-3	NIU	NIU×3	Attack err	Anne Makowski		+0.5
6	3-3	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Paige Brock	+0.4
7	3-4	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Kylie Schulze	+0.3
8	4-4	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Lily Burnett	set Paige Brock	+0.4
9	4-5	MURRAY	NIU×7	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Kylie Schulze	+0.4
10	4-6	NIU	NIU×7	Attack err	Maezi Snyder	blk Autumn Flynn	+0.5
11	4-7	NIU	NIU×7	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Kylie Schulze	+0.4
12	4-8	NIU	NIU×7	Attack err	Ceren Durak		+0.4
13	4-9	NIU	NIU×7	Attack err	Anne Makowski	blk Autumn Flynn	+0.3
14	4-10	NIU	NIU×7	Kill	Autumn Flynn		+0.2
15	4-11	NIU	NIU×7	Kill	Kylie Schulze		+0.2
16	5-11	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Alexa Watts	set Paige Brock	+0.1
17	5-12	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Naomi Dowd	set Ellie Smith	+0.1
18	6-12	NIU	MURRAY	Attack err	Autumn Flynn		+0.1
19	6-13	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Delaney Steers	set Autumn Flynn	+0.1
20	7-13	NIU	MURRAY	Attack err	Autumn Flynn		+0.1
21	8-13	MURRAY	MURRAY	Attack err	Delaney Steers	blk Lily Burnett	+0.2
22	8-14	MURRAY	NIU	Serve err	MURRAY server		+0.1
23	9-14	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Ada Tamturk	+0.1
24	9-15	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Kylie Schulze	+0.1
25	9-16	NIU	NIU	Attack err	Anne Makowski	blk Rylea Alvin, Katie Pahl	+0.1
26	10-16	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Alexa Watts	set Paige Brock	+0.1
27	11-16	MURRAY	MURRAY	Kill	Alexa Watts	set Ada Tamturk	+0.1
28	11-17	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Kylie Schulze	+0.1
29	12-17	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Alexa Watts	set Paige Brock	+0.1
30	12-18	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Kylie Schulze	+0.1
31	12-19	NIU	NIU	Kill	Kylie Schulze	set Paige Brock	+0.1
32	13-19	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Alexa Watts	set Ada Tamturk	+0.0
33	13-20	MURRAY	NIU×3	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Ellie Smith	+0.1
34	13-21	NIU	NIU×3	Attack err	Anne Makowski		+0.0
35	13-22	NIU	NIU×3	Ace	NIU server	aced Ceren Durak	+0.0
36	14-22	NIU	MURRAY	Serve err	NIU server		+0.0
37	15-22	MURRAY	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Ada Tamturk	+0.0
38	15-23	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Naomi Dowd	set Ellie Smith	+0.0
39	15-24	NIU	NIU	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Ellie Smith	+0.0
40	16-24	NIU	MURRAY	Serve err	NIU server		+0.0
41	16-25	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Ellie Smith	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Murray St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.