FinalFri, Sep 4, 2026

AwayMVC

3:0

HomeHORIZON

Murray St. def. NIU 3–0

(25-21, 26-24, 25-15)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MURRAY	25	26	25	3
NIU	21	24	15	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

NIU above 50 · MURRAY below

Biggest swing: 15.2% to Murray St. — set 2, MURRAY 26-24 NIU. Murray St. ace on Ava Grevengoed. NIU win probability 50% → 35%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MURRAY 15.1%84.9% NIU

Murray St. wins

3-0

2.3%

3-1

4.9%

3-2

8.0%

NIU wins

3-0

36.9%

3-1

31.3%

3-2

16.6%

MURRAY break %: 36.4% vs this opp
NIU break %: 44.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
MURRAY serverAce+15.2%
Murray St. ace on Ava Grevengoed
Set 2 · MURRAY 26-24 NIU · MURRAY 50% → 65%
02
Mija Sagadin PristovnikKill+12.6%
Kill by Mija Sagadin Pristovnik (set by Kathryn Titus)
Set 2 · MURRAY 25-24 NIU · MURRAY 37% → 50%
03
Autumn FlynnAttack error+10.4%
Autumn Flynn stuffed by Lily Burnett & Alexa Watts
Set 2 · MURRAY 24-24 NIU · MURRAY 27% → 37%
04
Autumn FlynnKill+4.7%
Kill by Autumn Flynn (set by Viktoria Djukic)
Set 2 · MURRAY 22-24 NIU · NIU 71% → 76%
05
Katie PahlAttack error+4.7%
Attack error by Katie Pahl
Set 1 · MURRAY 22-20 NIU · MURRAY 21% → 26%
06
Ava GrevengoedAttack error+4.2%
Attack error by Ava Grevengoed
Set 1 · MURRAY 24-21 NIU · MURRAY 27% → 31%
07
Ava GrevengoedKill+4.1%
Kill by Ava Grevengoed (set by Kylie Schulze)
Set 2 · MURRAY 21-23 NIU · NIU 70% → 74%
08
Ceren DurakKill+4.1%
Kill by Ceren Durak (set by Kathryn Titus)
Set 2 · MURRAY 19-20 NIU · MURRAY 27% → 31%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Murray St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Maezi SnyderMB	3	8	2	13	.462	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	3	11
17Anne MakowskiOH	3	8	5	29	.103	0	2	0	5	1	0	0	0	10
15Alexa WattsOH	3	4	1	11	.273	0	3	0	1	1	0	2	1	8
12Ceren DurakOH	3	6	1	17	.294	0	1	0	10	1	0	0	0	7
8Kathryn TitusS	3	3	1	5	.400	27	3	1	6	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
5Lily BurnettOH	3	2	2	13	.000	0	0	0	3	0	2	2	3	5
1Ada TamturkL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	2	0	0	9	0	0	0	0	1
22Bailey KeuschDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
14Mija Sagadin PristovnikOH	2	2	0	6	.333	0	1	0	4	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
10Teodora CickovicMB	1	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		34	13	96	.219	29	10	1	39	4	4	8	8	76

NIUhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
8Rylea AlvinMB	3	11	3	19	.421	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	13
15Autumn FlynnMB	3	9	3	18	.333	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	1	11
3Ava GrevengoedOH	3	9	5	32	.125	1	0	0	2	1	1	0	1	10
14Naomi DowdOH	3	5	1	14	.286	0	0	0	4	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
11Katie PahlOH	3	2	5	14	-.214	1	1	1	8	5	0	1	0.5	3.5
5Kylie SchulzeS	3	0	0	0	–	15	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0
6Viktoria DjukicS	3	0	0	1	.000	21	2	2	6	0	0	0	0	2
9Delaney SteersOH	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	11	0	0	0	0	0
4Kiana ShieldsMB	2	2	2	10	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
18Charlotte GramzowL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
16Lilly AbneyOH	1	3	4	7	-.143	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	4
21Charizma LoftonOH	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		42	23	116	.164	40	4	6	40	10	4	4	6	60

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 MURRAY · NIU 4

Set 1

25-21

Longest run 3 MURRAYNIU 4

Set 2

26-24

Longest run 4 MURRAYNIU 4

Set 3

25-15

Longest run 7 MURRAYNIU 3

Bars above the line = NIU leads, below = Murray St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Murray St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%8/12	33%3/9
2	67%8/12	33%4/12
3	70%7/10	61%11/18
4	55%6/11	50%6/12
5	55%6/11	40%4/10
6	83%5/6	62%8/13
All	65%40/62	49%36/74

NIU

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	73%8/11	42%5/12
2	37%7/19	27%3/11
3	88%7/8	22%2/9
4	43%6/14	42%5/12
5	50%5/10	40%4/10
6	42%5/12	38%3/8
All	51%38/74	35%22/62

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

136 rallies

Rally log

#	MURRAY-NIU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Kathryn Titus	+1.1
2	1-1	MURRAY	NIU×4	Kill	Naomi Dowd	set Kylie Schulze	+1.0
3	1-2	NIU	NIU×4	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Kylie Schulze	+1.5
4	1-3	NIU	NIU×4	Ace	NIU server	aced Team	+1.3
5	1-4	NIU	NIU×4	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Kylie Schulze	+1.1
6	2-4	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Kathryn Titus	+0.8
7	3-4	MURRAY	MURRAY	Kill	Alexa Watts	set Ada Tamturk	+1.3
8	3-5	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Naomi Dowd	set Ava Grevengoed	+0.9
9	4-5	NIU	MURRAY	Attack err	Naomi Dowd		+1.0
10	4-6	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Kylie Schulze	+0.9
11	4-7	NIU	NIU	Ace	NIU server	aced Anne Makowski	+1.2
12	5-7	NIU	MURRAY	Serve err	NIU server		+0.8
13	5-8	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.8
14	6-8	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Ceren Durak	set Kathryn Titus	+0.8
15	7-8	MURRAY	MURRAY	Attack err	Katie Pahl		+1.5
16	7-9	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Kiana Shields	set Viktoria Djukic	+1.0
17	8-9	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Kathryn Titus		+1.1
18	8-10	MURRAY	NIU×4	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Viktoria Djukic	+1.1
19	8-11	NIU	NIU×4	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Kylie Schulze	+1.4
20	8-12	NIU	NIU×4	Attack err	Anne Makowski	blk Naomi Dowd, Rylea Alvin	+1.1
21	8-13	NIU	NIU×4	Kill	Naomi Dowd	set Delaney Steers	+0.9
22	9-13	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Kathryn Titus	+0.5
23	10-13	MURRAY	MURRAY	Ace	MURRAY server	aced Katie Pahl	+1.0
24	10-14	MURRAY	NIU	Serve err	MURRAY server		+0.8
25	11-14	NIU	MURRAY×3	Kill	Lily Burnett	set Kathryn Titus	+0.7
26	12-14	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Kathryn Titus	+1.4
27	13-14	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Ace	MURRAY server	aced Katie Pahl	+1.8
28	13-15	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Naomi Dowd	set Kylie Schulze	+1.3
29	14-15	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Ceren Durak	set Kathryn Titus	+1.3
30	14-16	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Kylie Schulze	+1.4
31	14-17	NIU	NIU	Kill	Kiana Shields	set Viktoria Djukic	+1.7
32	15-17	NIU	MURRAY×3	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Kathryn Titus	+1.0
33	16-17	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Ace	MURRAY server	aced Katie Pahl	+2.1
34	17-17	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Ace	MURRAY server	aced Katie Pahl	+2.7
35	17-18	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Delaney Steers	+1.9
36	18-18	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Kathryn Titus	+2.0
37	19-18	MURRAY	MURRAY	Attack err	Kiana Shields		+3.5
38	19-19	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn		+2.2
39	20-19	NIU	MURRAY	Bad set	Viktoria Djukic		+2.7
40	20-20	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Viktoria Djukic	+2.4
41	21-20	NIU	MURRAY	Bad set	Kylie Schulze		+3.0
42	22-20	MURRAY	MURRAY	Attack err	Katie Pahl		+4.7
43	22-21	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Kylie Schulze	+2.3
44	23-21	NIU	MURRAY×3	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Kathryn Titus	+3.7
45	24-21	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Attack err	Ava Grevengoed		+4.2
46	25-21	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Attack err	Rylea Alvin	blk Lily Burnett	+1.7
Set 2
1	0-1	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Kylie Schulze	+1.6
2	1-1	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Kathryn Titus	+1.7
3	2-1	MURRAY	MURRAY	Attack err	Ava Grevengoed		+2.9
4	2-2	MURRAY	NIU	Attack err	Kathryn Titus	blk Ava Grevengoed	+1.8
5	2-3	NIU	NIU	Attack err	Maezi Snyder		+2.6
6	3-3	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Kathryn Titus	+1.8
7	3-4	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Viktoria Djukic	+1.7
8	3-5	NIU	NIU	Attack err	Anne Makowski		+2.4
9	4-5	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Kathryn Titus	+1.7
10	4-6	MURRAY	NIU×3	Attack err	Anne Makowski		+1.6
11	4-7	NIU	NIU×3	Ace	NIU server	aced Alexa Watts	+2.1
12	4-8	NIU	NIU×3	Attack err	Lily Burnett	blk Rylea Alvin	+1.8
13	5-8	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Alexa Watts	set Ada Tamturk	+1.1
14	6-8	MURRAY	MURRAY	Ace	MURRAY server	aced Rylea Alvin	+2.1
15	6-9	MURRAY	NIU×4	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Viktoria Djukic	+1.5
16	6-10	NIU	NIU×4	Kill	Naomi Dowd	set Katie Pahl	+1.9
17	6-11	NIU	NIU×4	Attack err	Lily Burnett	blk Katie Pahl, Rylea Alvin	+1.5
18	6-12	NIU	NIU×4	Attack err	Anne Makowski		+1.1
19	7-12	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Ceren Durak	set Kathryn Titus	+0.6
20	8-12	MURRAY	MURRAY	Attack err	Katie Pahl		+1.2
21	8-13	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Kylie Schulze	+1.0
22	8-14	NIU	NIU	Attack err	Maezi Snyder		+1.1
23	9-14	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Kylie Schulze	+0.6
24	9-15	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Kylie Schulze	+0.7
25	10-15	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Kathryn Titus		+0.5
26	10-16	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Kylie Schulze	+0.7
27	11-16	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	set Kathryn Titus	+0.5
28	11-17	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.7
29	11-18	NIU	NIU	Attack err	Ceren Durak		+0.6
30	12-18	NIU	MURRAY×3	Kill	Ada Tamturk	set Delaney Steers	+0.3
31	13-18	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Attack err	Ava Grevengoed	blk Lily Burnett	+0.6
32	14-18	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Ace	MURRAY server	aced Team	+1.1
33	14-19	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Viktoria Djukic	+1.0
34	15-19	NIU	MURRAY	Serve err	NIU server		+0.7
35	15-20	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.9
36	16-20	NIU	MURRAY×4	Kill	Ceren Durak	set Kathryn Titus	+0.6
37	17-20	MURRAY	MURRAY×4	Attack err	Katie Pahl	blk Maezi Snyder	+1.6
38	18-20	MURRAY	MURRAY×4	Attack err	Rylea Alvin		+2.6
39	19-20	MURRAY	MURRAY×4	Kill	Ceren Durak	set Kathryn Titus	+4.1
40	19-21	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Ava Grevengoed	+3.3
41	20-21	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Kathryn Titus	+3.0
42	20-22	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Kylie Schulze	+3.7
43	21-22	NIU	MURRAY	Attack err	Autumn Flynn	blk Maezi Snyder	+3.0
44	21-23	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Kylie Schulze	+4.1
45	22-23	NIU	MURRAY	Serve err	NIU server		+3.0
46	22-24	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Viktoria Djukic	+4.7
47	23-24	NIU	MURRAY×4	Attack err	Kiana Shields	blk Lily Burnett, Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	+2.6
48	24-24	MURRAY	MURRAY×4	Attack err	Autumn Flynn	blk Lily Burnett, Alexa Watts	+10.4
49	25-24	MURRAY	MURRAY×4	Kill	Mija Sagadin Pristovnik	set Kathryn Titus	+12.6
50	26-24	MURRAY	MURRAY×4	Ace	MURRAY server	aced Ava Grevengoed	+15.2
Set 3
1	1-0	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Alexa Watts	set Kathryn Titus	+2.2
2	2-0	MURRAY	MURRAY	Ace	MURRAY server	aced Katie Pahl	+3.4
3	2-1	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Kylie Schulze	+2.1
4	3-1	NIU	MURRAY×7	Serve err	NIU server		+2.4
5	4-1	MURRAY	MURRAY×7	Kill	Ceren Durak	set Kathryn Titus	+3.7
6	5-1	MURRAY	MURRAY×7	Attack err	Ava Grevengoed	blk Maezi Snyder, Kathryn Titus	+3.8
7	6-1	MURRAY	MURRAY×7	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Kathryn Titus	+3.8
8	7-1	MURRAY	MURRAY×7	Attack err	Rylea Alvin		+3.6
9	8-1	MURRAY	MURRAY×7	Ace	MURRAY server	aced Team	+3.3
10	9-1	MURRAY	MURRAY×7	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Kathryn Titus	+2.8
11	9-2	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Charizma Lofton	set Viktoria Djukic	+1.3
12	9-3	NIU	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Charizma Lofton	+2.5
13	10-3	NIU	MURRAY	Serve err	NIU server		+2.3
14	11-3	MURRAY	MURRAY	Bad set	Katie Pahl		+2.8
15	11-4	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Viktoria Djukic	+1.3
16	12-4	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Anne Makowski	set Kathryn Titus	+1.9
17	12-5	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Viktoria Djukic	+1.2
18	13-5	NIU	MURRAY×3	Attack err	Katie Pahl		+1.8
19	14-5	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Ace	MURRAY server	aced Team	+2.0
20	15-5	MURRAY	MURRAY×3	Attack err	Autumn Flynn		+1.4
21	15-6	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Lilly Abney	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.5
22	16-6	NIU	MURRAY×4	Kill	Lily Burnett	set Kathryn Titus	+0.9
23	17-6	MURRAY	MURRAY×4	Attack err	Lilly Abney		+0.8
24	18-6	MURRAY	MURRAY×4	Attack err	Lilly Abney		+0.4
25	19-6	MURRAY	MURRAY×4	Attack err	Lilly Abney		+0.2
26	19-7	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Lilly Abney	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
27	19-8	NIU	NIU	Ace	NIU server	aced Ceren Durak	+0.1
28	20-8	NIU	MURRAY	Attack err	Lilly Abney	blk Maezi Snyder, Alexa Watts	+0.2
29	20-9	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Lilly Abney	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.1
30	21-9	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Kathryn Titus	set Ada Tamturk	+0.1
31	21-10	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
32	22-10	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Maezi Snyder	set Kathryn Titus	+0.1
33	22-11	MURRAY	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
34	22-12	NIU	NIU	Attack err	Anne Makowski		+0.0
35	23-12	NIU	MURRAY	Serve err	NIU server		+0.1
36	24-12	MURRAY	MURRAY	Attack err	Ava Grevengoed		+0.0
37	24-13	MURRAY	NIU×3	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
38	24-14	NIU	NIU×3	Attack err	Teodora Cickovic	blk Autumn Flynn	+0.0
39	24-15	NIU	NIU×3	Attack err	Alexa Watts	blk Lilly Abney	+0.0
40	25-15	NIU	MURRAY	Kill	Alexa Watts	set Kathryn Titus	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Murray St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.