Final · 5 setsSat, Oct 3, 2026Watch on Midco Sports+

Kansas City def. North Dakota St. 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: North Dakota St. 83.7% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 3, 12:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Kansas City beat visiting North Dakota St. 3-2 (25-22, 21-25, 20-25, 25-22, 17-15) on Sat, Oct 3, 2026. Kansas City's Ryanne Wattree led with 21 kills, and Chloe Kaminski added 16 digs.

Data through · final Oct 3

Set12345Sets
ND ST22252522152
KC25212025173

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Mia Weaver served 4 aces, and Kansas City needed every one.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows Kansas City's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. Pre-match, North Dakota St. was RallyIQ's 84% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 4 · North Dakota St. 2–1 Kansas City

    The bottom for Kansas City, then 24 of the next 44 rallies and the set, 25–22.

    Kansas City 8% → 33%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · North Dakota St. 8–14 Kansas City

    6 straight North Dakota St. points erased an 8–14 deficit: 14–14. The match swung to North Dakota St.

    Kansas City 99% → 45%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · North Dakota St. 14–14 Kansas City

    Kansas City closed it, 3 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 17–15 and win the match 3–2.

    Kansas City 45% → >99%

Kansas City above 50North Dakota St. belowMax swing 32.8%

North Dakota St.Kansas City

Sideout %
North Dakota St. 53.7·Kansas City 53.2
Break %
North Dakota St. 46.8·Kansas City 46.3
Hitting
North Dakota St. .192·Kansas City .217
Longest run
North Dakota St. 6·Kansas City 5

Ryanne Wattree
8 of her kills came in the stretches above. 21 K, .300, 23.5 points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Kansas City above 50 · North Dakota St. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+32.8% KCrally 217 · set 5

Biggest swing: 32.8% to Kansas City — set 5, ND ST 15-17 KC. Zoe John stuffed by Stella Smith & Ryanne Wattree. KC win probability 67% → 100%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

ND ST 77.5%22.5% KC

North Dakota St. wins

3-0
29.2%
3-1
29.5%
3-2
18.8%

Kansas City wins

3-0
3.8%
3-1
7.6%
3-2
11.1%
ND ST break %
47.2% vs this opp
KC break %
41.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Zoe John stuffed by Stella Smith & Ryanne Wattree

    Set 5 · ND ST 15-17 KC · KC 67% → 100%

  2. 02
    Mia WeaverAttack error+28.6%

    Attack error by Mia Weaver

    Set 5 · ND ST 14-14 KC · ND ST 27% → 55%

  3. 03
    Ryanne WattreeKill+22.7%

    Kill by Ryanne Wattree (set by Chloe Kaminski)

    Set 5 · ND ST 14-15 KC · KC 45% → 67%

  4. 04
    Emry BrownAttack error+22.7%

    Attack error by Emry Brown

    Set 5 · ND ST 15-15 KC · ND ST 33% → 55%

  5. 05
    Ryanne WattreeKill+22.7%

    Kill by Ryanne Wattree (set by Coco Buschhorn)

    Set 5 · ND ST 15-16 KC · KC 45% → 67%

  6. 06
    Arianna BlohmKill+13.9%

    Kill by Arianna Blohm

    Set 5 · ND ST 13-14 KC · ND ST 13% → 27%

  7. 07
    Stella SmithKill+10.9%

    Kill by Stella Smith

    Set 5 · ND ST 4-7 KC · KC 55% → 66%

  8. 08
    Lauren JansenAttack error+10.8%

    Attack error by Lauren Jansen

    Set 5 · ND ST 6-10 KC · KC 71% → 82%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
518851.196141124010.522.5
57425.1201115016412
511323.3480001002112
5016-.16720010031.51.5
5114.00031021000001
5000–101450000
519952.1920009104221
55118.222110300217
5102.50018121400002
5000–6012410000
4001.000020210002
1000–000200000
1000–000000000
Team totals6227182.1926198871311810109
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
521650.30000030132.523.5
514639.205142143031.519.5
512327.33300020233.515.5
512346.1960003100012
5116.000133802448
5002.00026221200002
5003.00021211000002
5000–0231100002
5000–6001630000
3012-.50000000010.50.5
2125-.200000100001
Team totals6122180.21755131180951412108

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

North Dakota St. vs Kansas City

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 ND ST · KC 5

Set 1

22-25

Longest run 4 ND STKC 4

Set 2

25-21

Longest run 6 ND STKC 3

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 5 ND STKC 3

Set 4

22-25

Longest run 3 ND STKC 5

Set 5

15-17

Longest run 6 ND STKC 3

Bars above the line = Kansas City leads, below = North Dakota St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

North Dakota St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%10/15
27%3/11
2
53%8/15
59%13/22
3
58%7/12
50%8/16
4
35%7/20
50%7/14
5
78%7/9
53%8/15
6
58%7/12
22%2/9
All
55%46/83
47%41/87

Kansas City

SlotSideout %Break %
1
53%9/17
36%5/14
2
45%9/20
40%6/15
3
50%7/14
42%5/12
4
64%7/11
50%7/14
5
50%7/14
59%10/17
6
64%7/11
36%4/11
All
53%46/87
45%37/83

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

217 rallies

#ND ST-KCSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1KCKCBlockedLauren Jansenblk Mia Weaver, Mila Zoric+1.6
20-2KCKCKillRyanne Wattreeset Coco Buschhorn+1.7
31-2KCND STServe errKansas City+1.3
41-3ND STKC×4KillEmry Brownset Coco Buschhorn+1.4
51-4KCKC×4AceKansas Cityaced Sadie Johnson+1.9
61-5KCKC×4AceKansas Cityaced Sadie Johnson+1.9
71-6KCKC×4AceKansas Cityaced Sadie Johnson+1.9
82-6KCND STKillLauren Jansenset Sarah Pfiffner+1.3
93-6ND STND STAttack errEmry Brown+1.7
103-7ND STKCKillEmry Brownset Mia Weaver+1.7
114-7KCND STKillSarah Pfiffnerset Madelyn Bahnsen+1.4
125-7ND STND STKillZoe Johnset Sarah Pfiffner+1.8
135-8ND STKCKillStella Smithset Savy Repinski+1.7
146-8KCND STKillLauren Jansenset Sarah Pfiffner+1.5
156-9ND STKCKillMadelyn Bahnsenset Chloe Kaminski+1.8
166-10KCKCBlockedSarah Pfiffnerblk Mila Zoric+2.2
17–188-10ND ST 2
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.4
199-10ND STND ST×3Attack errEmma Tallman+2.0
209-11ND STKCKillMia Weaverset Savy Repinski+1.9
2110-11KCND STServe errKansas City+1.6
2210-12ND STKCKillMia Weaverset Coco Buschhorn+1.9
2310-13KCKCAttack errLauren Jansen+2.5
2411-13KCND STBad setCoco Buschhorn+1.7
2511-14ND STKCKillEmry Brownset Coco Buschhorn+2.1
2612-14KCND ST×3Serve errKansas City+1.7
2713-14ND STND ST×3KillArianna Blohmset Sarah Pfiffner+2.3
2814-14ND STND ST×3KillLauren Jansenset Sarah Pfiffner+2.4
2914-15ND STKC×3KillLauren Jansen+2.1
3014-16KCKC×3KillStella Smith+2.9
3114-17KCKC×3KillStella Smithset Savy Repinski+2.9
3215-17KCND ST×4Attack errLauren Jansenset Chloe Kaminski+1.9
3316-17ND ST
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.7
3417-17ND STND ST×4AceNorth Dakota St.aced Emry Brown+2.8
3518-17ND STND ST×4Attack errMia Weaver+2.8
3618-18ND STKCAttack errZoe Johnset Rya Borer+2.4
3719-18KCND STKillArianna Blohmset Cathy Porter+2.4
3819-19ND STKCAttack errStella Smithset Savy Repinski+2.5
3919-20KCKCAttack errZoe John+3.8
4020-20KCND STKillZoe Johnset Cathy Porter+2.8
4121-20ND ST
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.7
4221-21ND STKCAttack errZoe Johnset Sarah Pfiffner+3.1
4322-21KCND STKillLauren Jansenset Kendall Worwa+3.3
4422-22ND STKC×4KillRyanne Wattreeset Coco Buschhorn+3.5
4522-23KCKC×4Attack errLauren Jansen+5.8
4622-24KCKC×4AceKansas Cityaced Lauren Jansen+6.3
4722-25KCKC×4AceKansas City+4.3
Set 2
10-1ND STKCKillRyanne Wattreeset Chloe Kaminski+2.1
20-2KCKCAttack errEmma Tallman+2.8
31-2KCND STKillLauren Jansenset Sarah Pfiffner+2.1
41-3ND STKCAttack errArianna Blohmset Sarah Pfiffner+2.4
52-3KCND STKillArianna Blohmset Sarah Pfiffner+2.1
63-3ND STND STAceNorth Dakota St.aced Mia Weaver+2.6
73-4ND STKCBlockedLauren Jansenblk Stella Smith, Ryanne Wattree+2.3
83-5KCKCKillEmry Brownset Savy Repinski+3.1
94-5KCND ST×3KillLauren Jansenset Sarah Pfiffner+2.3
105-5ND STND ST×3AceNorth Dakota St.+2.8
116-5ND STND ST×3KillZoe Johnset Sarah Pfiffner+2.6
126-6ND STKC×3KillEmry Brownset Savy Repinski+2.3
136-7KCKC×3AceKansas Cityaced Maddy Dombeck+3.1
146-8KCKC×3KillStella Smithset Savy Repinski+3.4
157-8KCND STKillZoe Johnset Sarah Pfiffner+2.5
168-8ND STND STKillZoe Johnset Sarah Pfiffner+3.1
178-9ND STKCKillStella Smithset Savy Repinski+2.7
188-10KCKCKillMia Weaverset Savy Repinski+3.6
199-10KCND STKillZoe Johnset Cathy Porter+2.6
2010-10ND STND STAttack errMia Weaver+3.3
2110-11ND STKCServe errNorth Dakota St.+2.9
2211-11KCND STKillZoe Johnset Sarah Pfiffner+2.7
2311-12ND STKCKillMia Weaverset Coco Buschhorn+3.1
2412-12KCND STKillLauren Jansenset Sadie Johnson+2.8
2513-12ND STND STKillArianna Blohmset Sarah Pfiffner+3.4
2613-13ND STKCKillMia Weaver+2.9
2714-13KCND STKillEmma Tallmanset Sarah Pfiffner+2.8
2815-13ND STND STBlockedEmry Brownblk Arianna Blohm, Courtney Peters+3.3
2915-14ND STKCKillRyanne Wattreeset Coco Buschhorn+2.6
3016-14KCND STKillLauren Jansenset Cathy Porter+2.7
3116-15ND STKC×3KillEmry Brownset Savy Repinski+2.7
3216-16KCKC×3Attack errArianna Blohm+4.2
3316-17KCKC×3AceKansas Cityaced Lauren Jansen+4.9
3417-17KCND ST×6Serve errKansas City+3.7
3518-17ND STND ST×6Attack errMadelyn Bahnsen+4.6
3619-17ND STND ST×6Ball handlingStella Smith+4.1
3720-17ND STND ST×6KillZoe Johnset Courtney Peters+3.4
3821-17ND STND ST×6Attack errMia Weaver+2.4
3922-17ND STND ST×6KillZoe Johnset Cathy Porter+1.5
4022-18ND STKCKillMia Weaverset Savy Repinski+0.7
4123-18KCND STKillZoe Johnset Cathy Porter+1.0
4223-19ND STKC×3KillMia Weaverset Savy Repinski+0.5
4323-20KCKC×3KillMia Weaverset Coco Buschhorn+1.2
4423-21KCKC×3Attack errZoe John+2.4
4524-21KCND STKillZoe Johnset Sarah Pfiffner+3.2
4625-21ND STND STKillEmma Tallmanset Sarah Pfiffner+1.5
Set 3
10-1KCKCKillRyanne Wattreeset Chloe Kaminski+2.5
21-1KCND STKillArianna Blohmset Cathy Porter+1.9
31-2ND STKCKillEmry Brownset Coco Buschhorn+2.1
41-3KCKCKillRyanne Wattree+2.8
52-3KCND ST×3KillZoe Johnset Cathy Porter+2.1
63-3ND STND ST×3KillCourtney Petersset Cathy Porter+2.6
74-3ND STND ST×3AceNorth Dakota St.aced Mia Weaver+2.4
84-4ND STKCKillStella Smithset Coco Buschhorn+2.1
95-4KCND ST×5KillCourtney Petersset Cathy Porter+2.0
106-4ND STND ST×5KillZoe Johnset Lauren Jansen+2.3
117-4ND STND ST×5KillCathy Porterset Rya Borer+2.0
128-4ND STND ST×5AceNorth Dakota St.+1.7
139-4ND STND ST×5BlockedGizem Eroglublk Kendall Worwa, Zoe John+1.4
149-5ND STKCAttack errLauren Jansenset Cathy Porter+1.1
159-6KCKCKillStella Smithset Savy Repinski+1.7
1610-6KCND STServe errKansas City+1.4
1711-6ND STND STKillEmma Tallmanset Rya Borer+1.5
1811-7ND STKCServe errNorth Dakota St.+1.1
1912-7KCND STKillEmma Tallmanset Sarah Pfiffner+1.2
2012-8ND STKCServe errNorth Dakota St.+1.1
2112-9KCKCKillMia Weaverset Coco Buschhorn+1.7
2213-9KCND STKillEmma Tallmanset Sarah Pfiffner+1.6
2313-10ND STKCKillRyanne Wattreeset Coco Buschhorn+1.5
2414-10KCND STKillCourtney Petersset Cathy Porter+1.6
2514-11ND STKCKillRyanne Wattreeset Coco Buschhorn+1.5
2614-12KCKCBlockedArianna Blohmblk Stella Smith+2.4
2715-12KCND ST×3Serve errKansas City+2.1
2816-12ND STND ST×3KillZoe Johnset Kendall Worwa+2.1
2917-12ND STND ST×3BlockedRyanne Wattreeblk Zoe John, Kendall Worwa+1.6
3017-13ND STKCServe errNorth Dakota St.+1.0
3118-13KCND STAttack errStella Smithset Savy Repinski+1.3
3218-14ND STKC×3KillEmry Brownset Savy Repinski+1.0
3318-15KCKC×3BlockedZoe Johnblk Gizem Eroglu, Stella Smith+1.8
3418-16KCKC×3Attack errEmma Tallman+2.6
3519-16KCND STServe errKansas City+2.5
3619-17ND STKCKillMia Weaverset Savy Repinski+2.2
3719-18KCKCBlockedEmma Tallmanblk Mia Weaver, Mila Zoric+3.8
3820-18KCND STKillEmma Tallmanset Sarah Pfiffner+3.5
3920-19ND STKCAttack errLauren Jansenset Sarah Pfiffner+3.3
4021-19KCND STKillLauren Jansenset Sarah Pfiffner+3.8
4122-19ND STND STAceNorth Dakota St.aced Chloe Kaminski+3.7
4222-20ND STKCKillRyanne Wattreeset Coco Buschhorn+2.2
4323-20KCND ST×3KillLauren Jansenset Rya Borer+3.1
4424-20ND STND ST×3AceNorth Dakota St.aced Chloe Kaminski+2.1
4525-20ND STND ST×3BlockedRyanne Wattreeblk Zoe John, Arianna Blohm+0.6
Set 4
10-1ND STKCBlockedArianna Blohmblk Mila Zoric+1.6
21-1KCND STServe errKansas City+1.5
32-1ND STND STAttack errMia Weaver+1.8
42-2ND STKCServe errNorth Dakota St.+1.5
52-3KCKCKillRyanne Wattreeset Coco Buschhorn+2.1
63-3KCND STKillZoe Johnset Cathy Porter+1.6
73-4ND STKCKillRyanne Wattreeset Coco Buschhorn+1.7
83-5KCKCAttack errZoe John+2.3
94-5KCND STKillCourtney Petersset Rya Borer+1.7
104-6ND STKC×5KillRyanne Wattreeset Coco Buschhorn+2.0
114-7KCKC×5Attack errZoe John+2.5
124-8KCKC×5BlockedKendall Worwablk Stella Smith+2.6
134-9KCKC×5Attack errZoe John+2.5
144-10KCKC×5AceKansas Cityaced Zoe John+2.4
155-10KCND STKillEmma Tallmanset Sarah Pfiffner+1.5
165-11ND STKCKillStella Smith+2.0
176-11KCND STAttack errMia Weaverset Chloe Kaminski+1.5
186-12ND STKCKillMia Weaverset Savy Repinski+2.0
197-12KCND STKillEmma Tallmanset Sarah Pfiffner+1.5
207-13ND STKCServe errNorth Dakota St.+2.0
217-14KCKCKillRyanne Wattree+2.1
228-14KCND ST×3KillCourtney Petersset Cathy Porter+1.2
239-14ND STND ST×3KillZoe Johnset Cathy Porter+1.8
2410-14ND STND ST×3AceNorth Dakota St.aced Chloe Kaminski+2.2
2510-15ND STKCKillMila Zoricset Coco Buschhorn+2.3
2610-16KCKCAceKansas Cityaced Lauren Jansen+2.5
2711-16KCND STKillZoe Johnset Cathy Porter+1.4
2812-16ND STND STKillZoe Johnset Cathy Porter+2.1
2912-17ND STKCBlockedZoe Johnblk Ryanne Wattree, Mila Zoric+2.4
3012-18KCKCKillEmry Brownset Coco Buschhorn+2.4
3113-18KCND STServe errKansas City+1.2
3214-18ND STND STAceNorth Dakota St.aced Mia Weaver+2.0
3314-19ND STKCKillEmry Brownset Coco Buschhorn+2.4
3414-20KCKCAceKansas Cityaced Lauren Jansen+2.2
3515-20KCND STKillZoe Johnset Sarah Pfiffner+1.0
3616-20ND STND STKillEmma Tallmanset Sarah Pfiffner+1.8
3716-21ND STKCKillStella Smithset Savy Repinski+2.3
3817-21KCND STKillLauren Jansenset Sarah Pfiffner+1.3
3918-21ND STND STBlockedStella Smithblk Arianna Blohm, Lauren Jansen+2.4
4018-22ND STKCKillMia Weaverset Savy Repinski+3.0
4119-22KCND STKillArianna Blohmset Sarah Pfiffner+1.7
4219-23ND STKCKillMia Weaverset Savy Repinski+3.0
4320-23KCND ST×3KillLauren Jansenset Cathy Porter+1.4
4421-23ND STND ST×3BlockedMila Zoricblk Arianna Blohm+3.0
4522-23ND STND ST×3KillZoe Johnset Cathy Porter+4.7
4622-24ND STKCKillRyanne Wattreeset Coco Buschhorn+6.4
4722-25KCKCKillRyanne Wattreeset Coco Buschhorn+4.6
Set 5
11-0KCND STKillLauren Jansenset Rya Borer+5.6
21-1ND STKC×3Serve errNorth Dakota St.+6.1
31-2KCKC×3KillRyanne Wattree+8.5
41-3KCKC×3AceKansas Cityaced Sadie Johnson+9.2
52-3KCND STServe errKansas City+6.6
63-3ND STND STKillEmma Tallmanset Arianna Blohm+8.4
73-4ND STKCKillEmry Brownset Coco Buschhorn+7.6
83-5KCKCKillStella Smithset Coco Buschhorn+10.1
94-5KCND STAttack errRyanne Wattreeset Coco Buschhorn+7.2
104-6ND STKCKillRyanne Wattreeset Coco Buschhorn+8.7
114-7KCKCKillStella Smith+10.9
125-7KCND STServe errKansas City+7.1
135-8ND STKCKillEmry Brownset Chloe Kaminski+9.4
146-8KCND STKillLauren Jansenset Sarah Pfiffner+7.3
156-9ND STKC×3KillMia Weaverset Savy Repinski+9.9
166-10KCKC×3Attack errLauren Jansen+10.8
176-11KCKC×3BlockedCourtney Petersblk Mila Zoric, Mia Weaver+8.5
187-11KCND STKillLauren Jansenset Sarah Pfiffner+3.9
198-11ND STND STKillLauren Jansenset Rya Borer+7.1
208-12ND STKC×3KillArianna Blohmset Sarah Pfiffner+9.1
218-13KCKC×3AceKansas Cityaced Sadie Johnson+7.4
228-14KCKC×3AceKansas Cityaced Rya Borer+3.5
239-14KCND ST×6KillLauren Jansenset Sarah Pfiffner+0.6
2410-14ND STND ST×6BlockedRyanne Wattreeblk Emma Tallman, Arianna Blohm+1.6
2511-14ND STND ST×6BlockedRyanne Wattreeblk Emma Tallman, Arianna Blohm+3.2
2612-14ND STND ST×6Attack errRyanne Wattree+6.7
2713-14ND STND ST×6KillArianna Blohm+13.9
2814-14ND STND ST×6Attack errMia Weaver+28.6
2914-15ND STKCKillRyanne Wattreeset Chloe Kaminski+22.7
3015-15KCND STAttack errEmry Brownset Coco Buschhorn+22.7
3115-16ND STKCKillRyanne Wattreeset Coco Buschhorn+22.7
3215-17KCKCBlockedZoe Johnblk Stella Smith, Ryanne Wattree+32.8

Score shown after each rally, North Dakota St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).