Final · 5 setsTue, Oct 6, 2026Watch on ESPN+

VCU def. Davidson 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Davidson 72.6% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 6, 3:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

VCU won at Davidson 3-2 (25-21, 25-10, 22-25, 12-25, 15-11) on Tue, Oct 6, 2026. Lara Del Core led VCU with 14 kills; Davidson's Elena Garcia-Guerrios had a match-high 18.

Data through · final Oct 6

Set12345Sets
VCU25252212153
DAVID21102525112

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Lara Del core hit .400 on 25 swings as VCU edged Davidson.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are VCU's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Davidson went in at 73% by RallyIQ.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 4 · VCU 2–0 Davidson

    Down 0–2, Davidson scored 6 straight to lead 6–2. The match swung to Davidson.

    VCU 69% → 49%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · VCU 2–1 Davidson

    Up 2–1, VCU scored 3 straight to make it 5–1.

    VCU 50% → 76%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · VCU 9–7 Davidson

    VCU scored 3 straight to stretch a 9–7 lead to 12–7.

    VCU 69% → 95%

Davidson above 50VCU belowMax swing 10.0%

VCUDavidson

Sideout %
VCU 61.3·Davidson 57.1
Break %
VCU 42.9·Davidson 38.7
Hitting
VCU .265·Davidson .146
Longest run
VCU 7·Davidson 6

Lara Del Core
2 kills inside the turning points, 14 K and .400 for the match (16.5 points).

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Davidson above 50 · VCU below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+10.0% VCUrally 191 · set 5

Biggest swing: 10.0% to VCU — set 5, VCU 11-7 DAVID. Ellie Ocampo stuffed by Letizia Galli & Sarah Dibbs-Frantz. DAVID win probability 22% → 12%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

VCU 29.3%70.7% DAVID

VCU wins

3-0
5.5%
3-1
10.2%
3-2
13.5%

Davidson wins

3-0
23.8%
3-1
27.1%
3-2
19.8%
VCU break %
40.5% vs this opp
DAVID break %
44.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Ellie Ocampo stuffed by Letizia Galli & Sarah Dibbs-Frantz

    Set 5 · VCU 11-7 DAVID · VCU 78% → 88%

  2. 02
    Ariyana JohnsonAttack error+9.4%

    Attack error by Ariyana Johnson

    Set 5 · VCU 4-1 DAVID · VCU 57% → 67%

  3. 03
    VCUAce+9.3%

    VCU ace on Adlee Grissett

    Set 5 · VCU 7-3 DAVID · VCU 70% → 79%

  4. 04

    Kill by Dominika Kasinska (set by Cansin Sendir)

    Set 5 · VCU 10-7 DAVID · VCU 69% → 78%

  5. 05
    Letizia GalliKill+9.1%

    Kill by Letizia Galli (set by Cansin Sendir)

    Set 5 · VCU 2-0 DAVID · VCU 47% → 56%

  6. 06

    Kill by Melanie Tilles (set by Kinsey Smith)

    Set 5 · VCU 8-6 DAVID · DAVID 24% → 33%

  7. 07
    Lara Del CoreKill+8.8%

    Kill by Lara Del Core (set by Cansin Sendir)

    Set 5 · VCU 5-1 DAVID · VCU 67% → 76%

  8. 08
    DavidsonService error+8.8%

    Davidson service error

    Set 5 · VCU 9-6 DAVID · VCU 67% → 75%

Box score

Official NCAA box

VCUaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
511222.4090000038718
512120.5500001002113
57740.00001381010.58.5
51011.000011910002
5102.50040001300001
5000–1001020000
514425.40000212132.516.5
58426.1540002006311
5000–412830001
5000–000000000
2000–400000000
Team totals5418136.265493852104201499
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
518744.250051110010.523.5
514942.11900130031.515.5
58315.33300020233.511.5
55413.07700120010.55.5
5000–481190010.51.5
22313-.077001210002
5011-1.000010200001
5000–4111010001
48623.0870011000008
4000–120410002
1000–00000010.50.5
Team totals5533151.14653107553210792

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

VCU vs Davidson

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 VCU · DAVID 6

Set 1

25-21

Longest run 4 VCUDAVID 3

Set 2

25-10

Longest run 7 VCUDAVID 2

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 4 VCUDAVID 6

Set 4

12-25

Longest run 2 VCUDAVID 6

Set 5

15-11

Longest run 3 VCUDAVID 2

Bars above the line = Davidson leads, below = VCU leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

VCU

SlotSideout %Break %
1
52%12/23
50%9/18
2
57%12/21
37%7/19
3
65%11/17
40%8/20
4
73%8/11
61%14/23
5
50%7/14
30%3/10
6
100%7/7
13%1/8
All
61%57/93
43%42/98

Davidson

SlotSideout %Break %
1
57%12/21
38%6/16
2
57%12/21
40%8/20
3
50%11/22
40%8/20
4
47%7/15
36%5/14
5
78%7/9
56%9/16
6
70%7/10
0%0/7
All
57%56/98
39%36/93

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

191 rallies

#VCU-DAVIDSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1DAVIDDAVID×3Attack errNina Boledovicova+2.0
20-2DAVIDDAVID×3KillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+1.9
30-3DAVIDDAVID×3Attack errDominika Kasinska+1.7
41-3DAVIDVCUKillNina Boledovicovaset Cansin Sendir+1.3
51-4VCUDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+1.3
61-5DAVIDDAVIDAceDavidsonaced Kayla Foley+1.5
72-5DAVIDVCU×3Serve errDavidson+1.1
83-5VCUVCU×3Bad setKinsey Smith+1.7
94-5VCUVCU×3KillDominika Kasinskaset Dunja Martic+2.0
104-6VCUDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+1.5
115-6DAVIDVCU×4KillLetizia Galliset Cansin Sendir+1.5
126-6VCUVCU×4BlockedAriyana Johnsonblk Letizia Galli, Lara Del Core+2.3
137-6VCUVCU×4Bad setKinsey Smith+2.5
148-6VCUVCU×4Attack errAriyana Johnson+2.6
158-7VCUDAVIDKillMelanie Tillesset Kinsey Smith+1.8
169-7DAVIDVCUKillLara Del Coreset Cansin Sendir+2.1
179-8VCUDAVIDKillMia Compasset Kinsey Smith+1.9
1810-8DAVIDVCUServe errDavidson+2.1
1911-8VCUVCUKillNina Boledovicovaset Cansin Sendir+2.8
2011-9VCUDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+1.8
2112-9DAVIDVCUKillLara Del Coreset Cansin Sendir+2.2
2213-9VCUVCUKillLara Del Coreset Cansin Sendir+2.8
2313-10VCUDAVIDKillMia Compasset Kinsey Smith+1.7
2414-10DAVIDVCUKillKayla Foley+2.2
2514-11VCUDAVIDKillMelanie Tillesset Kinsey Smith+1.7
2615-11DAVIDVCUKillDominika Kasinskaset Cansin Sendir+2.2
2716-11VCUVCUAttack errElena Garcia-Guerrios+2.5
2816-12VCUDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+1.4
2917-12DAVIDVCUServe errDavidson+1.9
3017-13VCUDAVIDServe errVCU+1.4
3118-13DAVIDVCUKillSarah Dibbs-Frantzset Cansin Sendir+1.9
3218-14VCUDAVIDServe errVCU+1.3
3318-15DAVIDDAVIDAttack errSarah Dibbs-Frantz+2.3
3419-15DAVIDVCUKillSarah Dibbs-Frantzset Cansin Sendir+2.4
3519-16VCUDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+1.7
3620-16DAVIDVCUKillNina Boledovicovaset Cansin Sendir+2.5
3720-17VCUDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+1.6
3821-17DAVIDVCUKillDominika Kasinskaset Cansin Sendir+2.5
3921-18VCUDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+1.5
4022-18DAVIDVCUKillLetizia Galliset Cansin Sendir+2.5
4122-19VCUDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Brooke Briscoe+1.4
4223-19DAVIDVCUKillDominika Kasinskaset Cansin Sendir+2.4
4323-20VCUDAVIDServe errVCU+1.1
4423-21DAVIDDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+2.6
4524-21DAVIDVCUKillSarah Dibbs-Frantzset Cansin Sendir+3.7
4625-21VCUVCUAttack errAriyana Johnson+2.1
Set 2
11-0VCUVCUKillLetizia Galliset Cansin Sendir+2.9
22-0VCUVCUAttack errMelanie Tilles+3.0
32-1VCUDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+2.1
43-1DAVIDVCUServe errDavidson+2.3
54-1VCUVCUBlockedMia Compasblk Letizia Galli+3.1
64-2VCUDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+2.1
75-2DAVIDVCU×4KillLetizia Galliset Cansin Sendir+2.4
86-2VCUVCU×4Attack errAriyana Johnson+3.2
97-2VCUVCU×4AceVCUaced Meile Songaila+3.0
108-2VCUVCU×4BlockedAriyana Johnsonblk Letizia Galli, Lara Del Core+2.8
118-3VCUDAVIDKillMia Compasset Kinsey Smith+1.7
129-3DAVIDVCUServe errDavidson+2.1
139-4VCUDAVIDKillMia Compasset Kinsey Smith+1.7
1410-4DAVIDVCUBlockedMeile Songailablk Sarah Dibbs-Frantz, Nina Boledovicova+2.1
1510-5VCUDAVIDServe errVCU+1.6
1611-5DAVIDVCUKillNina Boledovicovaset Cansin Sendir+2.1
1711-6VCUDAVIDBlockedDominika Kasinskablk Melanie Tilles, Ariyana Johnson+1.6
1812-6DAVIDVCU×3KillNina Boledovicovaset Cansin Sendir+2.1
1913-6VCUVCU×3Attack errElena Garcia-Guerrios+2.3
2014-6VCUVCU×3KillLetizia Galliset Cansin Sendir+1.8
2114-7VCUDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+0.9
2215-7DAVIDVCU×3Attack errKate Whiteley+1.3
2316-7VCUVCU×3Attack errMia Compas+1.2
2417-7VCUVCU×3BlockedElena Garcia-Guerriosblk Sarah Dibbs-Frantz, Letizia Galli+0.8
2517-8VCUDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+0.3
2617-9DAVIDDAVIDBlockedSarah Dibbs-Frantzblk Elena Garcia-Guerrios, Myla Young+0.7
2718-9DAVIDVCUKillSarah Dibbs-Frantzset Cansin Sendir+0.8
2818-10VCUDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+0.4
2919-10DAVIDVCU×7KillLara Del Coreset Cansin Sendir+0.7
3020-10VCUVCU×7Attack errElena Garcia-Guerrios+0.5
3121-10VCUVCU×7KillLara Del Coreset Jordan Baksh+0.2
3222-10VCUVCU×7Attack errElena Garcia-Guerrios+0.1
3323-10VCUVCU×7Attack errMeile Songaila·
3424-10VCUVCU×7AceVCUaced Brooke Briscoe·
3525-10VCUVCU×7BlockedMeile Songailablk Nina Boledovicova, Sarah Dibbs-Frantz·
Set 3
11-0DAVIDVCUKillNina Boledovicovaset Cansin Sendir+1.9
22-0VCUVCUAttack errEllie Ocampo+2.6
32-1VCUDAVIDKillEllie Ocamposet Kinsey Smith+1.8
43-1DAVIDVCUAttack errAriyana Johnson+2.1
53-2VCUDAVIDAttack errSarah Dibbs-Frantz+1.9
64-2DAVIDVCUAttack errEllie Ocampo+2.1
74-3VCUDAVIDKillMelanie Tillesset Kinsey Smith+1.9
85-3DAVIDVCUKillLara Del Coreset Cansin Sendir+2.2
96-3VCUVCUKillSarah Dibbs-Frantz+2.9
106-4VCUDAVIDServe errVCU+1.9
117-4DAVIDVCUKillSarah Dibbs-Frantzset Jordan Baksh+2.3
127-5VCUDAVIDKillEllie Ocamposet Kinsey Smith+2.0
138-5DAVIDVCUKillLara Del Coreset Cansin Sendir+2.3
148-6VCUDAVIDServe errVCU+2.0
159-6DAVIDVCUAttack errAriyana Johnson+2.4
1610-6VCUVCUKillCansin Sendirset Kinsey Smith+3.0
1710-7VCUDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+1.9
1811-7DAVIDVCUKillLetizia Galliset Cansin Sendir+2.4
1911-8VCUDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+1.9
2012-8DAVIDVCUKillDominika Kasinskaset Cansin Sendir+2.4
2113-8VCUVCUAttack errEllie Ocampo+2.9
2213-9VCUDAVIDServe errVCU+1.7
2314-9DAVIDVCUBlockedMelanie Tillesblk Lara Del Core, Letizia Galli+2.2
2414-10VCUDAVID×6KillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+1.7
2514-11DAVIDDAVID×6KillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+2.7
2614-12DAVIDDAVID×6AceDavidsonaced Lara Del Core+3.1
2714-13DAVIDDAVID×6AceDavidson+3.5
2814-14DAVIDDAVID×6AceDavidsonaced Jordan Baksh+3.7
2914-15DAVIDDAVID×6AceDavidsonaced Dominika Kasinska+3.7
3015-15DAVIDVCUKillNina Boledovicovaset Cansin Sendir+2.8
3115-16VCUDAVIDKillMelanie Tillesset Kinsey Smith+2.9
3216-16DAVIDVCUKillNina Boledovicovaset Cansin Sendir+3.0
3316-17VCUDAVID×4Serve errVCU+3.0
3416-18DAVIDDAVID×4KillMia Compasset Cansin Sendir+3.8
3516-19DAVIDDAVID×4KillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+3.3
3616-20DAVIDDAVID×4KillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+2.5
3717-20DAVIDVCUKillNina Boledovicovaset Cansin Sendir+1.3
3817-21VCUDAVID×3KillEllie Ocamposet Kinsey Smith+1.8
3917-22DAVIDDAVID×3BlockedDominika Kasinskablk Ariyana Johnson, Mia Compas+1.5
4017-23DAVIDDAVID×3KillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+0.7
4118-23DAVIDVCUKillLetizia Galliset Maddalena Fiolo+0.2
4218-24VCUDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+0.4
4319-24DAVIDVCU×4KillDominika Kasinskaset Maddalena Fiolo+0.1
4420-24VCUVCU×4Attack errMelanie Tilles+0.3
4521-24VCUVCU×4Attack errElena Garcia-Guerrios+0.6
4622-24VCUVCU×4BlockedElena Garcia-Guerriosblk Letizia Galli, Sarah Dibbs-Frantz+1.6
4722-25VCUDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+2.7
Set 4
11-0VCUVCUKillLetizia Galliset Cansin Sendir+3.9
22-0VCUVCUBlockedAriyana Johnsonblk Dominika Kasinska, Letizia Galli+4.1
32-1VCUDAVID×6Attack errLetizia Galli+2.9
42-2DAVIDDAVID×6KillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+3.9
52-3DAVIDDAVID×6Bad setCansin Sendir+3.8
62-4DAVIDDAVID×6Attack errDominika Kasinska+3.6
72-5DAVIDDAVID×6AceDavidsonaced Dunja Martic+3.3
82-6DAVIDDAVID×6BlockedDominika Kasinskablk Mia Compas, Ariyana Johnson+2.9
93-6DAVIDVCUKillLetizia Galliset Cansin Sendir+2.0
103-7VCUDAVID×6KillMia Compasset Kinsey Smith+2.2
113-8DAVIDDAVID×6KillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+2.5
123-9DAVIDDAVID×6AceDavidsonaced Jordan Baksh+2.0
133-10DAVIDDAVID×6AceDavidsonaced Dunja Martic+1.6
143-11DAVIDDAVID×6BlockedDominika Kasinskablk Mia Compas+1.2
153-12DAVIDDAVID×6BlockedLetizia Galliblk Mia Compas+0.8
164-12DAVIDVCUKillSarah Dibbs-Frantzset Jordan Baksh+0.4
174-13VCUDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+0.6
185-13DAVIDVCUKillLara Del Coreset Jordan Baksh+0.4
195-14VCUDAVID×3Attack errLara Del Core+0.6
205-15DAVIDDAVID×3Attack errSarah Dibbs-Frantz+0.5
215-16DAVIDDAVID×3AceDavidsonaced Lara Del Core+0.3
226-16DAVIDVCUKillLara Del Coreset Cansin Sendir+0.1
237-16VCUVCUBlockedMelanie Tillesblk Lara Del Core+0.3
247-17VCUDAVIDKillEllie Ocamposet Kinsey Smith+0.3
258-17DAVIDVCUKillNina Boledovicovaset Maddalena Fiolo+0.2
268-18VCUDAVIDAttack errDominika Kasinska+0.2
279-18DAVIDVCUKillNina Boledovicovaset Maddalena Fiolo+0.1
289-19VCUDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Brooke Briscoe+0.2
2910-19DAVIDVCUBlockedMia Compasblk Letizia Galli+0.1
3011-19VCUVCUBlockedEllie Ocampoblk Letizia Galli+0.2
3111-20VCUDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+0.3
3212-20DAVIDVCUKillSarah Dibbs-Frantzset Brooke Briscoe+0.1
3312-21VCUDAVID×5KillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Adlee Grissett+0.2
3412-22DAVIDDAVID×5Attack errLara Del Core+0.1
3512-23DAVIDDAVID×5KillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith·
3612-24DAVIDDAVID×5KillEllie Ocamposet Brooke Briscoe·
3712-25DAVIDDAVID×5AceDavidsonaced Jordan Baksh+1.0
Set 5
11-0DAVIDVCUServe errDavidson+6.6
22-0VCUVCUKillLetizia Galliset Cansin Sendir+9.1
32-1VCUDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+6.2
43-1DAVIDVCU×3KillLara Del Coreset Cansin Sendir+7.2
54-1VCUVCU×3Attack errAriyana Johnson+9.4
65-1VCUVCU×3KillLara Del Coreset Cansin Sendir+8.8
75-2VCUDAVIDKillMia Compasset Kinsey Smith+5.3
85-3DAVIDDAVIDBlockedLara Del Coreblk Kinsey Smith, Mia Compas+8.3
96-3DAVIDVCUKillNina Boledovicovaset Cansin Sendir+7.7
107-3VCUVCUAceVCUaced Adlee Grissett+9.3
117-4VCUDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Kinsey Smith+5.3
128-4DAVIDVCUKillLara Del Coreset Cansin Sendir+7.2
138-5VCUDAVIDKillEllie Ocamposet Kinsey Smith+5.2
148-6DAVIDDAVIDKillMelanie Tillesset Kinsey Smith+8.9
159-6DAVIDVCUServe errDavidson+8.8
169-7VCUDAVIDKillEllie Ocamposet Kinsey Smith+6.7
1710-7DAVIDVCU×3KillDominika Kasinskaset Cansin Sendir+9.2
1811-7VCUVCU×3BlockedEllie Ocampoblk Letizia Galli, Sarah Dibbs-Frantz+10.0
1912-7VCUVCU×3BlockedEllie Ocampoblk Sarah Dibbs-Frantz, Letizia Galli+6.8
2012-8VCUDAVIDKillEllie Ocamposet Kinsey Smith+2.5
2113-8DAVIDVCUKillLetizia Galliset Cansin Sendir+4.6
2213-9VCUDAVIDKillElena Garcia-Guerriosset Brooke Briscoe+1.8
2314-9DAVIDVCUKillLara Del Coreset Cansin Sendir+3.7
2414-10VCUDAVIDKillMia Compasset Kinsey Smith+0.9
2514-11DAVIDDAVIDAttack errLara Del Core+2.6
2615-11DAVIDVCUKillLara Del Coreset Cansin Sendir+4.8

Score shown after each rally, VCU first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).