Final · 4 setsSun, Oct 11, 2026Watch on MEAC Network

Morgan St. def. UMES 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Morgan St. 55.4% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 11, 11:56 AM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Morgan St. won at UMES 3-1 (21-25, 25-11, 25-23, 25-8) on Sun, Oct 11, 2026. Morgan St.'s Jada Williams led with 16 kills, and Isabelle Brown added 11 digs.

Data through · final Oct 11

Set1234Sets
MORGAN212525253
UMES25112381

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Jada Williams served 5 aces, and Morgan St. needed every one.

The match turned twice; each line shows Morgan St.'s RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. Morgan St. went in as RallyIQ's 55% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 3 · Morgan St. 12–15 UMES

    4 straight Morgan St. points turned a 12–15 deficit into a 16–15 lead. The match swung to Morgan St.

    Morgan St. 40% → 58%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 3 · Morgan St. 19–20 UMES

    4 straight Morgan St. points turned a 19–20 deficit into a 23–20 lead. The match swung to Morgan St.

    Morgan St. 47% → 73%

UMES above 50Morgan St. belowMax swing 9.6%

Morgan St.UMES

Sideout %
Morgan St. 66.2·UMES 46.3
Break %
Morgan St. 53.7·UMES 33.8
Hitting
Morgan St. .308·UMES .108
Longest run
Morgan St. 8·UMES 5

Jada Williams
16 kills on .441, 22 points; 2 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

UMES above 50 · Morgan St. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+9.6% MORGANrally 163 · set 4

Biggest swing: 9.6% to Morgan St. — set 3, MORGAN 25-23 UMES. Kill by Jada Williams (set by Isabelle Brown). UMES win probability 32% → 23%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MORGAN 74.8%25.2% UMES

Morgan St. wins

3-0
26.8%
3-1
28.6%
3-2
19.3%

UMES wins

3-0
4.5%
3-1
8.7%
3-2
12.1%
MORGAN break %
45.5% vs this opp
UMES break %
40.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Jada WilliamsKill+9.6%

    Kill by Jada Williams (set by Isabelle Brown)

    Set 3 · MORGAN 25-23 UMES · MORGAN 68% → 77%

  2. 02
    Malaysia ShawAttack error+7.7%

    Attack error by Malaysia Shaw

    Set 3 · MORGAN 21-20 UMES · MORGAN 52% → 60%

  3. 03
    Morgan St.Ace+7.4%

    Morgan St. ace on Shayla Henry

    Set 3 · MORGAN 22-20 UMES · MORGAN 60% → 67%

  4. 04
    Shayla HenryKill+7.1%

    Kill by Shayla Henry

    Set 3 · MORGAN 19-20 UMES · UMES 46% → 53%

  5. 05
    Jada WilliamsKill+5.8%

    Kill by Jada Williams

    Set 3 · MORGAN 23-20 UMES · MORGAN 67% → 73%

  6. 06
    Rayah HowellKill+5.5%

    Kill by Rayah Howell (set by Jocelyn Torres)

    Set 3 · MORGAN 24-23 UMES · UMES 27% → 32%

  7. 07
    Morgan St.Ace+5.3%

    Morgan St. ace on Karielys Melendez

    Set 3 · MORGAN 16-15 UMES · MORGAN 53% → 58%

  8. 08
    Malaysia ShawBad set+5.2%

    Bad set by Malaysia Shaw

    Set 3 · MORGAN 20-20 UMES · MORGAN 47% → 52%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416134.4412524002122
411326.3080248200013
48320.2500001012210
48114.50010001111.59.5
46526.03810390010.56.5
4408.50037021100004
4000–243800004
4002.000111500001
4000–0001000000
Team totals5313130.30844121556426596
UMEShome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
46632.0000101150218
47421.14310150010.57.5
44516-.06321130052.57.5
4013-.333000001011
4002.0001311800001
2226.000000000002
412325.3600001010113
4000–1310800001
4001.0002021750000
4000–000300000
24114.214000010215
Team totals3522120.10831455612210767

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Morgan St. vs UMES

Season series · Morgan St. leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 8 MORGAN · UMES 5

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 3 MORGANUMES 5

Set 2

25-11

Longest run 8 MORGANUMES 2

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 4 MORGANUMES 3

Set 4

25-8

Longest run 8 MORGANUMES 2

Bars above the line = UMES leads, below = Morgan St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Morgan St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
75%9/12
67%14/21
2
64%9/14
55%11/20
3
62%8/13
50%9/18
4
70%7/10
53%8/15
5
75%6/8
54%7/13
6
55%6/11
25%2/8
All
66%45/68
54%51/95

UMES

SlotSideout %Break %
1
45%9/20
33%4/12
2
36%9/25
40%6/15
3
67%8/12
38%5/13
4
38%6/16
27%3/11
5
55%6/11
14%1/7
6
55%6/11
40%4/10
All
46%44/95
34%23/68

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

163 rallies

#MORGAN-UMESSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0UMESMORGANKillTre'Niya Millerset Isabelle Brown+1.8
21-1MORGANUMESServe errMorgan St.+1.8
32-1UMESMORGAN×3KillMichaela Panekovaset Isabelle Brown+1.9
43-1MORGANMORGAN×3Bad setArianna Warner Torres+2.5
54-1MORGANMORGAN×3Attack errJaslyn Dawkins+2.3
64-2MORGANUMESServe errMorgan St.+1.6
75-2UMESMORGANKillZayda Thomasset Isabelle Brown+1.8
86-2MORGANMORGANKillHanna Nemethset Isabelle Brown+2.2
96-3MORGANUMES×3Serve errMorgan St.+1.5
106-4UMESUMES×3AceUMESaced Michaela Panekova+2.3
116-5UMESUMES×3BlockedHanna Nemethblk Kyra Bradford+2.5
127-5UMESMORGANKillHanna Nemethset Isabelle Brown+2.0
137-6MORGANUMESKillRayah Howellset Jocelyn Torres+1.9
148-6UMESMORGANAttack errJayda Hutchins+2.1
158-7MORGANUMESServe errMorgan St.+2.0
169-7UMESMORGAN×3Attack errRayah Howell+2.1
1710-7MORGANMORGAN×3Attack errJayda Hutchins+2.7
1811-7MORGANMORGAN×3KillTre'Niya Miller+2.4
1911-8MORGANUMESKillRayah Howellset Jocelyn Torres+1.6
2012-8UMESMORGANKillTre'Niya Millerset Isabelle Brown+1.8
2113-8MORGANMORGANBlockedMalaysia Shawblk Tre'Niya Miller, Zayda Thomas+2.1
2213-9MORGANUMESKillJayda Hutchinsset Arianna Warner Torres+1.3
2314-9UMESMORGANKillZayda Thomasset Tre'Niya Miller+1.6
2414-10MORGANUMES×5KillMalaysia Shawset Arianna Warner Torres+1.3
2514-11UMESUMES×5KillGabrielle McCoy+2.2
2614-12UMESUMES×5KillJaslyn Dawkinsset Malaysia Shaw+2.7
2714-13UMESUMES×5Attack errZayda Thomas+3.2
2814-14UMESUMES×5AceUMES+3.6
2915-14UMESMORGANKillMichaela Panekovaset Isabelle Brown+2.8
3015-15MORGANUMESServe errMorgan St.+2.8
3116-15UMESMORGANKillHanna Nemethset Jada Williams+2.9
3216-16MORGANUMESKillRayah Howellset Jocelyn Torres+2.9
3316-17UMESUMESAttack errHanna Nemeth+4.2
3417-17UMESMORGANKillJada Williamsset Isabelle Brown+3.1
3517-18MORGANUMES×3Serve errMorgan St.+3.4
3617-19UMESUMES×3BlockedMichaela Panekovablk Rayah Howell+4.5
3717-20UMESUMES×3Attack errHanna Nemeth+4.1
3818-20UMESMORGANKillJada Williamsset Isabelle Brown+2.3
3918-21MORGANUMESKillRayah Howellset Jocelyn Torres+3.2
4019-21UMESMORGANKillIsabelle Brown+2.3
4119-22MORGANUMES×3KillJayda Hutchinsset Isabelle Brown+3.4
4219-23UMESUMES×3KillMalaysia Shawset Arianna Warner Torres+3.0
4319-24UMESUMES×3BlockedMichaela Panekovablk Jaslyn Dawkins, Malaysia Shaw+1.4
4420-24UMESMORGANKillJada Williamsset Isabelle Brown+0.3
4521-24MORGANMORGANAttack errGabrielle McCoy+0.8
4621-25MORGANUMESServe errMorgan St.+1.4
Set 2
11-0MORGANMORGANKillMichaela Panekovaset Isabelle Brown+2.6
21-1MORGANUMESServe errMorgan St.+1.9
32-1UMESMORGAN×4KillZayda Thomasset Isabelle Brown+2.0
43-1MORGANMORGAN×4Attack errJayda Hutchins+2.6
54-1MORGANMORGAN×4BlockedJaslyn Dawkinsblk Jada Williams, Zayda Thomas+2.5
65-1MORGANMORGAN×4AceMorgan St.aced Karielys Melendez+2.3
75-2MORGANUMESServe errMorgan St.+1.6
86-2UMESMORGANServe errUMES+1.7
96-3MORGANUMESKillJaslyn Dawkinsset Arianna Warner Torres+1.6
107-3UMESMORGANKillJada Williamsset Isabelle Brown+1.8
117-4MORGANUMESKillRayah Howellset Jocelyn Torres+1.6
128-4UMESMORGAN×4KillIsabelle Brown+1.8
139-4MORGANMORGAN×4KillMichaela Panekovaset Nathalia Morais+2.1
1410-4MORGANMORGAN×4BlockedKyra Bradfordblk Tre'Niya Miller+1.8
1511-4MORGANMORGAN×4KillMichaela Panekovaset Isabelle Brown+1.4
1611-5MORGANUMESKillRayah Howellset Jocelyn Torres+0.8
1712-5UMESMORGANKillJada Williamsset Isabelle Brown+1.0
1812-6MORGANUMESKillRayah Howellset Jocelyn Torres+0.8
1912-7UMESUMESBlockedZayda Thomasblk Jayda Hutchins, Malaysia Shaw+1.4
2013-7UMESMORGAN×3KillZayda Thomasset Isabelle Brown+1.3
2114-7MORGANMORGAN×3AceMorgan St.aced Jayda Hutchins+1.4
2215-7MORGANMORGAN×3KillTre'Niya Millerset Isabelle Brown+1.0
2315-8MORGANUMESServe errMorgan St.+0.5
2415-9UMESUMESAceUMESaced Michaela Panekova+0.9
2516-9UMESMORGAN×8KillHanna Nemethset Isabelle Brown+0.9
2617-9MORGANMORGAN×8KillJada Williamsset Isabelle Brown+0.8
2718-9MORGANMORGAN×8AceMorgan St.aced Karielys Melendez+0.5
2819-9MORGANMORGAN×8KillZayda Thomasset Bailey Swinton+0.3
2920-9MORGANMORGAN×8BlockedGabrielle McCoyblk Hanna Nemeth, Jada Williams+0.1
3021-9MORGANMORGAN×8Attack errMalaysia Shaw+0.1
3122-9MORGANMORGAN×8KillJada Williamsset Bailey Swinton·
3223-9MORGANMORGAN×8BlockedJaslyn Dawkinsblk Zayda Thomas·
3323-10MORGANUMESKillGabrielle McCoyset Arianna Warner Torres·
3424-10UMESMORGANKillZayda Thomasset Isabelle Brown·
3524-11MORGANUMESKillJayda Hutchinsset Arianna Warner Torres·
3625-11UMESMORGANKillMichaela Panekovaset Hanna Nemeth·
Set 3
11-0UMESMORGANAttack errJayda Hutchins+2.4
21-1MORGANUMESKillMalaysia Shawset Karielys Melendez+2.4
31-2UMESUMESBlockedJada Williamsblk Malaysia Shaw, Shayla Henry+3.4
42-2UMESMORGANKillZayda Thomasset Isabelle Brown+2.5
52-3MORGANUMESKillJaslyn Dawkinsset Arianna Warner Torres+2.6
63-3UMESMORGANAttack errJaslyn Dawkins+2.6
73-4MORGANUMESServe errMorgan St.+2.7
84-4UMESMORGANKillJada Williamsset Isabelle Brown+2.6
94-5MORGANUMESServe errMorgan St.+2.7
105-5UMESMORGANServe errUMES+2.7
116-5MORGANMORGANAttack errJayda Hutchins+3.7
126-6MORGANUMESServe errMorgan St.+2.7
136-7UMESUMESKillRayah Howellset Jocelyn Torres+3.8
147-7UMESMORGAN×3Serve errUMES+2.8
158-7MORGANMORGAN×3KillZayda Thomasset Isabelle Brown+3.9
169-7MORGANMORGAN×3Attack errRayah Howell+3.8
179-8MORGANUMES×3BlockedZayda Thomasblk Malaysia Shaw, Jayda Hutchins+2.7
189-9UMESUMES×3Attack errMichaela Panekova+4.0
199-10UMESUMES×3BlockedHanna Nemethblk Malaysia Shaw, Shayla Henry+4.2
2010-10UMESMORGANServe errUMES+3.1
2110-11MORGANUMESKillShayla Henryset Arianna Warner Torres+3.2
2210-12UMESUMESAttack errHanna Nemeth+4.4
2311-12UMESMORGANKillJada Williamsset Isabelle Brown+3.1
2411-13MORGANUMESKillJaslyn Dawkinsset Malaysia Shaw+3.4
2511-14UMESUMESKillJaslyn Dawkinsset Arianna Warner Torres+4.3
2612-14UMESMORGANKillHanna Nemethset Isabelle Brown+2.8
2712-15MORGANUMESKillJayda Hutchinsset Arianna Warner Torres+3.3
2813-15UMESMORGAN×4KillJada Williamsset Isabelle Brown+2.9
2914-15MORGANMORGAN×4KillIsabelle Brownset Jocelyn Torres+4.5
3015-15MORGANMORGAN×4AceMorgan St.aced Jayda Hutchins+5.0
3116-15MORGANMORGAN×4AceMorgan St.aced Karielys Melendez+5.3
3216-16MORGANUMESAttack errTre'Niya Miller+3.9
3317-16UMESMORGANKillMichaela Panekovaset Isabelle Brown+4.2
3417-17MORGANUMESKillRayah Howellset Jocelyn Torres+4.2
3518-17UMESMORGANServe errUMES+4.4
3618-18MORGANUMESKillMalaysia Shawset Jocelyn Torres+4.4
3719-18UMESMORGANAttack errShayla Henry+4.8
3819-19MORGANUMESKillShayla Henryset Arianna Warner Torres+4.7
3919-20UMESUMESKillShayla Henry+7.1
4020-20UMESMORGAN×4Bad setMalaysia Shaw+5.2
4121-20MORGANMORGAN×4Attack errMalaysia Shaw+7.7
4222-20MORGANMORGAN×4AceMorgan St.aced Shayla Henry+7.4
4323-20MORGANMORGAN×4KillJada Williams+5.8
4423-21MORGANUMESServe errMorgan St.+2.5
4524-21UMESMORGANKillJada Williamsset Isabelle Brown+4.4
4624-22MORGANUMESKillShayla Henryset Arianna Warner Torres+1.8
4724-23UMESUMESKillRayah Howellset Jocelyn Torres+5.5
4825-23UMESMORGANKillJada Williamsset Isabelle Brown+9.6
Set 4
11-0MORGANMORGAN×5Bad setJayda Hutchins+3.1
22-0MORGANMORGAN×5Attack errMalaysia Shaw+3.1
33-0MORGANMORGAN×5Bad setArianna Warner Torres+2.9
44-0MORGANMORGAN×5KillHanna Nemethset Isabelle Brown+2.7
55-0MORGANMORGAN×5AceMorgan St.+2.4
65-1MORGANUMESKillJayda Hutchinsset Jaslyn Dawkins+1.6
76-1UMESMORGANKillJada Williamsset Isabelle Brown+1.8
86-2MORGANUMESKillJaslyn Dawkinsset Arianna Warner Torres+1.6
97-2UMESMORGAN×4KillIsabelle Brownset Shayla Henry+1.9
108-2MORGANMORGAN×4KillJada Williamsset Isabelle Brown+2.1
119-2MORGANMORGAN×4Attack errJayda Hutchins+1.7
1210-2MORGANMORGAN×4KillMichaela Panekovaset Isabelle Brown+1.4
1310-3MORGANUMESKillJaslyn Dawkinsset Karielys Melendez+0.8
1411-3UMESMORGAN×8KillMichaela Panekovaset Isabelle Brown+1.0
1512-3MORGANMORGAN×8AceMorgan St.aced Jayda Hutchins+1.0
1613-3MORGANMORGAN×8AceMorgan St.aced Karielys Melendez+0.7
1714-3MORGANMORGAN×8Attack errRayah Howell+0.4
1815-3MORGANMORGAN×8KillTre'Niya Millerset Isabelle Brown+0.3
1916-3MORGANMORGAN×8KillTre'Niya Miller+0.1
2017-3MORGANMORGAN×8KillMichaela Panekovaset Jada Williams+0.1
2118-3MORGANMORGAN×8AceMorgan St.aced Jayda Hutchins·
2218-4MORGANUMESServe errMorgan St.·
2319-4UMESMORGANKillJada Williamsset Isabelle Brown·
2420-4MORGANMORGANKillTre'Niya Millerset Bailey Swinton·
2520-5MORGANUMESKillRayah Howellset Jocelyn Torres·
2620-6UMESUMESKillJayda Hutchinsset Karielys Melendez·
2721-6UMESMORGANKillMichaela Panekovaset Isabelle Brown·
2822-6MORGANMORGANAceMorgan St.aced Karielys Melendez·
2922-7MORGANUMESKillRayah Howellset Jocelyn Torres·
3022-8UMESUMESAceUMESaced Tre'Niya Miller·
3123-8UMESMORGAN×3KillTre'Niya Millerset Isabelle Brown·
3224-8MORGANMORGAN×3Attack errMalaysia Shaw·
3325-8MORGANMORGAN×3AceMorgan St.aced Jayda Hutchins·

Score shown after each rally, Morgan St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).