FinalSat, Sep 5, 2026

AwaySOUTHLAND

3:0

WIL

Home

Nicholls def. Wiley 3–0

(25-6, 25-21, 25-14)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
NICHST	25	25	25	3
WILEY	6	21	14	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

WILEY above 50 · NICHST below

Biggest swing: 5.6% to Nicholls — set 2, NICHST 23-21 WILEY. Kill by Mckenzie Mitchell (set by Isabella Padilla). WILEY win probability 21% → 15%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

NICHST 57.7%42.3% WILEY

Nicholls wins

3-0

16.0%

3-1

21.9%

3-2

19.7%

Wiley wins

3-0

9.5%

3-1

15.6%

3-2

17.2%

NICHST break %: 45.4% vs this opp
WILEY break %: 43.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Mckenzie MitchellKill+5.6%
Kill by Mckenzie Mitchell (set by Isabella Padilla)
Set 2 · NICHST 23-21 WILEY · NICHST 79% → 85%
02
Cameron JohnsonKill+5.1%
Kill by Cameron Johnson (set by Coryn Baily)
Set 2 · NICHST 21-21 WILEY · WILEY 21% → 26%
03
WILEY serverService error+4.7%
Wiley service error
Set 2 · NICHST 22-21 WILEY · NICHST 74% → 79%
04
Kymberly SheppardAttack error+4.2%
Attack error by Kymberly Sheppard
Set 2 · NICHST 19-18 WILEY · NICHST 74% → 78%
05
Maya SchirmerKill+4.1%
Kill by Maya Schirmer (set by Harmonee Bryant)
Set 2 · NICHST 20-18 WILEY · NICHST 78% → 82%
06
Harper HoldenKill+4.0%
Kill by Harper Holden (set by Isabella Padilla)
Set 2 · NICHST 24-21 WILEY · NICHST 85% → 89%
07
Cameron JohnsonAttack error+3.7%
Cameron Johnson stuffed by Maya Schirmer
Set 2 · NICHST 17-17 WILEY · NICHST 70% → 74%
08
Kiera JonesAttack error+3.6%
Kiera Jones stuffed by Maya Schirmer
Set 2 · NICHST 21-19 WILEY · NICHST 79% → 82%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Nichollsaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
15Harper HoldenMB	3	8	0	11	.727	1	4	1	2	0	1	0	1	13
16Mckenzie MitchellOH	3	8	3	23	.217	0	3	1	7	1	0	0	0	11
5Maya SchirmerMB	3	3	1	6	.333	1	0	0	1	0	3	1	3.5	6.5
18Kera ArringtonOH	3	6	4	16	.125	2	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	6
8Isabella PadillaS	3	3	2	17	.059	28	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	4
2Ava-Claire CalaisS	3	0	0	2	.000	3	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0
3Zahahrah Edwards-WyllieOH	3	13	2	17	.647	1	1	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	14.5
11Natalia NavarroL/DS	3	0	0	3	.000	2	0	2	15	0	0	0	0	0
1Lizzie KraftDS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	0	1	7	0	0	0	0	0
6Karina SmithL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
14Beryn HylandOH	1	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		41	13	98	.286	39	9	8	43	2	4	2	5	75

Wileyhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BLK	PTS
12Jakayla Collins	3	4	5	15	-.067	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	4
10Kymberly Sheppard	3	1	3	8	-.250	1	0	0	0	0	2	2	3
3Kiera Jones	3	2	1	18	.056	0	0	0	5	3	0	0	2
23Jae Jemmott	3	2	1	9	.111	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
2Lynnetra Taylor	3	1	1	7	.000	5	1	0	1	0	0	0	2
15Cameron Johnson	2	3	1	8	.250	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	4
8LaDaejah Edwards	3	1	1	3	.000	6	1	0	6	0	0	0	2
11Uriah Larry	3	0	1	3	-.333	0	0	0	1	0	2	2	2
9Asia Griffiths	3	0	1	3	-.333	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	0
19Jacque'lene Jones	2	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
1Coryn Baily	2	0	1	3	-.333	1	0	0	8	0	0	0	0
22Harmonee Bryant	2	0	0	2	.000	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0
4T'aja Hardy	2	0	0	1	.000	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
24Kennedy Meeks	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Morgan Sellers	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0
Team totals		15	16	83	-.012	14	2	4	27	9	5	5	41

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 9 NICHST · WILEY 6

Set 1

25-6

Longest run 9 NICHSTWILEY 2

Set 2

25-21

Longest run 4 NICHSTWILEY 6

Set 3

25-14

Longest run 6 NICHSTWILEY 2

Bars above the line = Wiley leads, below = Nicholls leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Nicholls

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	63%5/8	71%10/14
2	71%5/7	67%10/15
3	83%5/6	44%4/9
4	50%5/10	64%9/14
5	80%4/5	67%8/12
6	33%2/6	80%8/10
All	62%26/42	66%49/74

Wiley

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	36%5/14	40%2/5
2	33%5/15	38%3/8
3	56%5/9	17%1/6
4	42%5/12	55%6/11
5	19%3/16	17%1/6
6	25%2/8	50%3/6
All	34%25/74	38%16/42

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

116 rallies

Rally log

#	NICHST-WILEY	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	NICHST	NICHST×7	Ace	NICHST server	aced Cameron Johnson	+2.3
2	2-0	NICHST	NICHST×7	Attack err	Lynnetra Taylor		+2.3
3	3-0	NICHST	NICHST×7	Kill	Harper Holden	set Isabella Padilla	+2.2
4	4-0	NICHST	NICHST×7	Attack err	Jakayla Collins		+2.0
5	5-0	NICHST	NICHST×7	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+1.8
6	6-0	NICHST	NICHST×7	Kill	Harper Holden	set Isabella Padilla	+1.6
7	7-0	NICHST	NICHST×7	Ace	NICHST server	aced Asia Griffiths	+1.3
8	7-1	NICHST	WILEY	Attack err	Mckenzie Mitchell		+0.9
9	7-2	WILEY	WILEY	Attack err	Isabella Padilla	blk Kymberly Sheppard	+1.4
10	8-2	WILEY	NICHST	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+1.3
11	9-2	NICHST	NICHST	Ace	NICHST server	aced Kiera Jones	+1.3
12	9-3	NICHST	WILEY	Attack err	Maya Schirmer		+0.9
13	10-3	WILEY	NICHST	Serve err	WILEY server		+1.1
14	10-4	NICHST	WILEY	Kill	Cameron Johnson	set Jakayla Collins	+0.9
15	11-4	WILEY	NICHST×3	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Isabella Padilla	+1.0
16	12-4	NICHST	NICHST×3	Bad set	Cameron Johnson		+1.0
17	13-4	NICHST	NICHST×3	Kill	Harper Holden	set Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	+0.7
18	13-5	NICHST	WILEY	Serve err	NICHST server		+0.4
19	14-5	WILEY	NICHST×9	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Isabella Padilla	+0.6
20	15-5	NICHST	NICHST×9	Bad set	LaDaejah Edwards		+0.5
21	16-5	NICHST	NICHST×9	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Isabella Padilla	+0.3
22	17-5	NICHST	NICHST×9	Kill	Harper Holden	set Isabella Padilla	+0.2
23	18-5	NICHST	NICHST×9	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Natalia Navarro	+0.1
24	19-5	NICHST	NICHST×9	Attack err	Jae Jemmott		+0.0
25	20-5	NICHST	NICHST×9	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
26	21-5	NICHST	NICHST×9	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
27	22-5	NICHST	NICHST×9	Kill	Harper Holden	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
28	22-6	NICHST	WILEY	Serve err	NICHST server		+0.0
29	23-6	WILEY	NICHST×3	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
30	24-6	NICHST	NICHST×3	Kill	Isabella Padilla	set Ava-Claire Calais	+0.0
31	25-6	NICHST	NICHST×3	Ace	NICHST server	aced Team	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	WILEY	WILEY	Kill	Jacque'lene Jones	set Lynnetra Taylor	+2.2
2	1-1	WILEY	NICHST×3	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Maya Schirmer	+1.7
3	2-1	NICHST	NICHST×3	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Harper Holden	+2.2
4	3-1	NICHST	NICHST×3	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Ava-Claire Calais	+2.1
5	3-2	NICHST	WILEY	Attack err	Beryn Hyland	blk Cameron Johnson	+1.7
6	3-3	WILEY	WILEY	Attack err	Kera Arrington		+2.3
7	4-3	WILEY	NICHST	Serve err	WILEY server		+1.8
8	4-4	NICHST	WILEY	Kill	Jakayla Collins	set Lynnetra Taylor	+1.9
9	5-4	WILEY	NICHST	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Isabella Padilla	+1.9
10	5-5	NICHST	WILEY×6	Attack err	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	blk Kymberly Sheppard	+1.9
11	5-6	WILEY	WILEY×6	Attack err	Mckenzie Mitchell	blk Uriah Larry	+2.5
12	5-7	WILEY	WILEY×6	Attack err	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie		+2.5
13	5-8	WILEY	WILEY×6	Ace	WILEY server	aced Mckenzie Mitchell	+2.5
14	5-9	WILEY	WILEY×6	Kill	LaDaejah Edwards		+2.3
15	5-10	WILEY	WILEY×6	Kill	Jakayla Collins	set Kymberly Sheppard	+2.1
16	6-10	WILEY	NICHST	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Isabella Padilla	+1.4
17	6-11	NICHST	WILEY	Kill	Lynnetra Taylor	set LaDaejah Edwards	+1.7
18	7-11	WILEY	NICHST×3	Kill	Harper Holden	set Ava-Claire Calais	+1.4
19	8-11	NICHST	NICHST×3	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+2.1
20	9-11	NICHST	NICHST×3	Attack err	Kymberly Sheppard	blk Harper Holden	+2.4
21	9-12	NICHST	WILEY×4	Serve err	NICHST server		+2.2
22	9-13	WILEY	WILEY×4	Kill	Cameron Johnson	set LaDaejah Edwards	+2.5
23	9-14	WILEY	WILEY×4	Attack err	Mckenzie Mitchell		+2.2
24	9-15	WILEY	WILEY×4	Attack err	Isabella Padilla		+1.8
25	10-15	WILEY	NICHST×4	Attack err	Asia Griffiths		+1.1
26	11-15	NICHST	NICHST×4	Attack err	Jakayla Collins		+1.8
27	12-15	NICHST	NICHST×4	Attack err	Jakayla Collins		+2.2
28	13-15	NICHST	NICHST×4	Ace	NICHST server	aced Team	+2.6
29	13-16	NICHST	WILEY	Serve err	NICHST server		+2.5
30	14-16	WILEY	NICHST	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+2.2
31	14-17	NICHST	WILEY	Kill	Jakayla Collins	set Lynnetra Taylor	+2.6
32	15-17	WILEY	NICHST×3	Kill	Maya Schirmer	set Isabella Padilla	+2.2
33	16-17	NICHST	NICHST×3	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Kera Arrington	+3.3
34	17-17	NICHST	NICHST×3	Attack err	Cameron Johnson	blk Maya Schirmer	+3.7
35	17-18	NICHST	WILEY	Serve err	NICHST server		+3.3
36	18-18	WILEY	NICHST×3	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Isabella Padilla	+3.2
37	19-18	NICHST	NICHST×3	Attack err	Kymberly Sheppard		+4.2
38	20-18	NICHST	NICHST×3	Kill	Maya Schirmer	set Harmonee Bryant	+4.1
39	20-19	NICHST	WILEY	Bad set	Mckenzie Mitchell		+2.9
40	21-19	WILEY	NICHST	Attack err	Kiera Jones	blk Maya Schirmer	+3.6
41	21-20	NICHST	WILEY	Serve err	NICHST server		+3.1
42	21-21	WILEY	WILEY	Kill	Cameron Johnson	set Coryn Baily	+5.1
43	22-21	WILEY	NICHST×4	Serve err	WILEY server		+4.7
44	23-21	NICHST	NICHST×4	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+5.6
45	24-21	NICHST	NICHST×4	Kill	Harper Holden	set Isabella Padilla	+4.0
46	25-21	NICHST	NICHST×4	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+1.7
Set 3
1	0-1	NICHST	WILEY	Bad set	Kera Arrington		+1.1
2	1-1	WILEY	NICHST×3	Kill	Isabella Padilla		+1.1
3	2-1	NICHST	NICHST×3	Ace	NICHST server	aced Kiera Jones	+1.3
4	3-1	NICHST	NICHST×3	Ace	NICHST server	aced Jakayla Collins	+1.3
5	3-2	NICHST	WILEY	Serve err	NICHST server		+1.0
6	3-3	WILEY	WILEY	Bad set	Mckenzie Mitchell		+1.4
7	4-3	WILEY	NICHST×3	Kill	Isabella Padilla	set Kera Arrington	+1.1
8	5-3	NICHST	NICHST×3	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Natalia Navarro	+1.4
9	6-3	NICHST	NICHST×3	Ace	NICHST server	aced Harmonee Bryant	+1.3
10	6-4	NICHST	WILEY	Kill	Kiera Jones	set Lynnetra Taylor	+1.0
11	6-5	WILEY	WILEY	Attack err	Kera Arrington	blk Uriah Larry	+1.4
12	7-5	WILEY	NICHST×5	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Isabella Padilla	+1.2
13	8-5	NICHST	NICHST×5	Attack err	Kymberly Sheppard	blk Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie, Maya Schirmer	+1.4
14	9-5	NICHST	NICHST×5	Attack err	LaDaejah Edwards	blk Maya Schirmer	+1.3
15	10-5	NICHST	NICHST×5	Attack err	Uriah Larry		+1.1
16	11-5	NICHST	NICHST×5	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Isabella Padilla	+0.9
17	11-6	NICHST	WILEY	Kill	Kiera Jones	set LaDaejah Edwards	+0.6
18	12-6	WILEY	NICHST	Serve err	WILEY server		+0.7
19	12-7	NICHST	WILEY	Kill	Jae Jemmott	set LaDaejah Edwards	+0.6
20	13-7	WILEY	NICHST	Bad set	LaDaejah Edwards		+0.7
21	14-7	NICHST	NICHST	Kill	Harper Holden	set Isabella Padilla	+0.7
22	14-8	NICHST	WILEY	Kill	Jae Jemmott	set LaDaejah Edwards	+0.4
23	14-9	WILEY	WILEY	Ace	WILEY server	aced Team	+0.7
24	15-9	WILEY	NICHST	Bad set	Jae Jemmott		+0.7
25	15-10	NICHST	WILEY	Kill	Jakayla Collins	set Lynnetra Taylor	+0.6
26	15-11	WILEY	WILEY	Attack err	Kera Arrington		+0.9
27	16-11	WILEY	NICHST×6	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+0.9
28	17-11	NICHST	NICHST×6	Attack err	Jakayla Collins		+0.9
29	18-11	NICHST	NICHST×6	Ace	NICHST server	aced Kiera Jones	+0.6
30	19-11	NICHST	NICHST×6	Attack err	Coryn Baily		+0.4
31	20-11	NICHST	NICHST×6	Attack err	Jakayla Collins		+0.2
32	21-11	NICHST	NICHST×6	Bad set	Lynnetra Taylor		+0.1
33	21-12	NICHST	WILEY	Attack err	Kera Arrington		+0.0
34	22-12	WILEY	NICHST	Kill	Maya Schirmer	set Isabella Padilla	+0.1
35	22-13	NICHST	WILEY	Serve err	NICHST server		+0.0
36	23-13	WILEY	NICHST	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
37	24-13	NICHST	NICHST	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Lizzie Kraft	+0.0
38	24-14	NICHST	WILEY	Kill	Kymberly Sheppard	set LaDaejah Edwards	+0.0
39	25-14	WILEY	NICHST	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Nicholls first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.