Tarleton State def. Abilene Christian 3-0 (Oct 10)

FinalSat, Oct 10, 2026ESPN+

0:3

RallyIQ pre-match: Abilene Christian 50.0% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 10, 12:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Tarleton St. beat visiting Abilene Christian 3-0 (25-16, 25-19, 25-19) on Sat, Oct 10, 2026. Tarleton St.'s Madison Natori Rice-Locket led with 13 kills, and Leddy Rae Guinn added 21 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 8:05 PM CT · final Oct 10

Set	1	2	3	Sets
ABILCH	16	19	19	0
TARLET	25	25	25	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Tarleton St. held Abilene Christian under 20 in every set.

No single rally moved win probability more than 3.2 points. Abilene Christian peaked at 48% in Set 1. These are the stats that built the gap. Abilene Christian went in at 50% by RallyIQ.

Abilene ChristianTarleton St.

Break %+18.2 pts
34.552.7
Points won on own serve: 39 of 74 vs 19 of 55. Abilene Christian sided out 47.3% of the time.
Hitting+.267
.137.404
45 K / 7 E against 37 K / 20 E.
Longest run+-2
75
Tarleton St. opened the set in the first set with 5 straight points for a 5–0 lead. That set ended 25–16.

Tarleton St. above 50Abilene Christian belowMax swing 3.2%

Abilene ChristianTarleton St.

Aces: Abilene Christian 5·Tarleton St. 3
Serve err: Abilene Christian 7·Tarleton St. 5
Blocks: Abilene Christian 4·Tarleton St. 70 BS · 8 BA vs 2 BS · 10 BA
Digs: Abilene Christian 38·Tarleton St. 58

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Tarleton St. above 50 · Abilene Christian below

Biggest swing: 3.2% to Tarleton St. — set 2, ABILCH 18-21 TARLET. Kill by Madison Natori Rice-Locket (set by Alexis Massey). TARLET win probability 78% → 82%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

ABILCH 56.3%43.7% TARLET

Abilene Christian wins

3-0

15.3%

3-1

21.4%

3-2

19.6%

Tarleton St. wins

3-0

10.0%

3-1

16.1%

3-2

17.5%

ABILCH break %: 44.5% vs this opp
TARLET break %: 43.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Madison Natori Rice-LocketKill+3.2%
Kill by Madison Natori Rice-Locket (set by Alexis Massey)
Set 2 · ABILCH 18-21 TARLET · TARLET 78% → 82%
02
Rachel Koss&Hannah GonzalezBlock+3.1%
Madison Natori Rice-Locket stuffed by Rachel Koss & Hannah Gonzalez
Set 2 · ABILCH 18-20 TARLET · ABILCH 18% → 22%
03
Aubrey BeaverAttack error+3.0%
Attack error by Aubrey Beaver
Set 2 · ABILCH 18-22 TARLET · TARLET 82% → 85%
04
Maddie FinneganAttack error+2.8%
Attack error by Maddie Finnegan
Set 2 · ABILCH 8-11 TARLET · TARLET 74% → 77%
05
Aubrey BeaverAttack error+2.7%
Attack error by Aubrey Beaver
Set 2 · ABILCH 11-15 TARLET · TARLET 78% → 81%
06
Hannah GonzalezKill+2.7%
Kill by Hannah Gonzalez (set by Rachel Koss)
Set 2 · ABILCH 8-9 TARLET · ABILCH 25% → 28%
07
Madison Natori Rice-LocketAttack error+2.7%
Attack error by Madison Natori Rice-Locket
Set 2 · ABILCH 11-13 TARLET · ABILCH 22% → 24%
08
Alyssa ToddAttack error+2.6%
Attack error by Alyssa Todd
Set 2 · ABILCH 4-6 TARLET · TARLET 71% → 74%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Abilene Christianaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
7Hannah GonzalezMB	3	10	2	24	.333	2	0	2	1	0	3	1.5	11.5
3Alyssa ToddOH	3	8	3	25	.200	1	0	0	3	0	2	1	9
2Avery ThalerMB	3	4	4	16	.000	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	4.5
4Rachel KossS	3	0	0	3	.000	28	0	0	8	0	1	0.5	0.5
15Hadlee WelchOH	2	3	3	11	.000	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	3.5
19Maddie FinneganOH	2	0	1	3	-.333	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	0
12Abby ChristianL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	3	1	2	0	0	0	3
24Brennan RamirezL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	2	3	10	1	0	0	2
11Izabelle LarsonOH	3	1	0	2	.500	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	1
10Aubrey BeaverOH	2	5	3	23	.087	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5
21Alexis StrongOH	1	4	2	8	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
8Annaleise SevierOH	1	2	1	5	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
1Jayla JacksonOH	1	0	1	3	-.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18Isa RichardsonMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		37	20	124	.137	34	5	7	38	3	8	4	54

Tarleton St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
21Madison Natori Rice-LocketOH	3	13	3	28	.357	0	0	1	12	2	0	3	1.5	14.5
9Madison FrankMB	3	8	1	16	.438	2	0	1	1	0	1	3	2.5	10.5
11Onita DavisMB	3	8	1	14	.500	2	0	0	3	0	1	0	1	9
3LaNeah LaraOH	3	7	2	16	.313	0	0	0	4	1	0	1	0.5	7.5
23Alyssa DinhMB	3	4	0	7	.571	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	5
18Peyton FadalS	3	0	0	0	–	17	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	0
4Breannah PetersonOPP	3	5	0	13	.385	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
5Alexis MasseyS	3	0	0	0	–	18	2	1	4	0	0	0	0	2
8Leddy Rae GuinnDS	3	0	0	0	–	5	1	2	21	0	0	0	0	1
1Aubrey AchesonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	6	2	0	0	0	0
Team totals		45	7	94	.404	44	3	5	58	5	2	10	7	75

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Abilene Christian vs Tarleton St.

Season series · Tarleton St. leads 1-0

Sat, Oct 10, 2026Abilene Christian at Tarleton St. · Tarleton St. won 3-0This match
Thu, Nov 5, 2026Tarleton St. at Abilene ChristianPreview →

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 ABILCH · TARLET 5

Set 1

16-25

Longest run 7 ABILCHTARLET 5

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 3 ABILCHTARLET 4

Set 3

19-25

Longest run 3 ABILCHTARLET 4

Bars above the line = Tarleton St. leads, below = Abilene Christian leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Abilene Christian

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	33%5/15	0%0/3
2	50%4/8	62%8/13
3	80%4/5	0%0/4
4	33%3/9	43%3/7
5	43%3/7	40%2/5
6	50%3/6	0%0/3
All	44%22/50	37%13/35

Tarleton St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	38%5/13	67%10/15
2	100%4/4	50%4/8
3	57%4/7	20%1/5
4	60%3/5	67%6/9
5	100%3/3	57%4/7
6	100%3/3	50%3/6
All	63%22/35	56%28/50

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

129 rallies

#	ABILCH-TARLET	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	TARLET	TARLET×5	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Leddy Rae Guinn	+2.4
2	0-2	TARLET	TARLET×5	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Leddy Rae Guinn	+2.4
3	0-3	TARLET	TARLET×5	Kill	Onita Davis	set Peyton Fadal	+2.3
4	0-4	TARLET	TARLET×5	Kill	Onita Davis	set Leddy Rae Guinn	+2.2
5	0-5	TARLET	TARLET×5	Blocked	Hadlee Welch	blk Madison Natori Rice-Locket, Madison Frank	+2.0
6	1-5	TARLET	ABILCH	Kill	Alyssa Todd	set Rachel Koss	+1.4
7	1-6	ABILCH	TARLET	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Peyton Fadal	+1.6
8	1-7	TARLET	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Peyton Fadal	+1.8
9	2-7	TARLET	ABILCH	Kill	Hadlee Welch	set Rachel Koss	+1.2
10	2-8	ABILCH	TARLET	Attack err	Alyssa Todd		+1.4
11	3-8	TARLET	ABILCH	Kill	Alyssa Todd	set Rachel Koss	+1.2
12	4-8	ABILCH	ABILCH	Kill	Hannah Gonzalez	set Rachel Koss	+1.8
13	4-9	ABILCH	TARLET×5	Kill	Onita Davis	set Peyton Fadal	+1.7
14	4-10	TARLET	TARLET×5	Ace	Tarleton St.	aced Brennan Ramirez	+1.8
15	4-11	TARLET	TARLET×5	Blocked	Aubrey Beaver	blk Alyssa Dinh, Breannah Peterson	+1.5
16	4-12	TARLET	TARLET×5	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Alexis Massey	+1.2
17	4-13	TARLET	TARLET×5	Kill	Alyssa Dinh	set Alexis Massey	+0.9
18	5-13	TARLET	ABILCH	Kill	Aubrey Beaver	set Abby Christian	+0.5
19	5-14	ABILCH	TARLET×3	Kill	Alyssa Dinh	set Alexis Massey	+0.6
20	5-15	TARLET	TARLET×3	Kill	Breannah Peterson	set Alexis Massey	+0.5
21	5-16	TARLET	TARLET×3	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Alexis Massey	+0.3
22	6-16	TARLET	ABILCH	Kill	Aubrey Beaver	set Rachel Koss	+0.2
23	6-17	ABILCH	TARLET	Kill	Breannah Peterson	set Alexis Massey	+0.2
24	7-17	TARLET	ABILCH	Serve err	Tarleton St.		+0.1
25	7-18	ABILCH	TARLET	Kill	Madison Frank	set Alexis Massey	+0.2
26	8-18	TARLET	ABILCH×7	Kill	Hadlee Welch	set Rachel Koss	+0.1
27	9-18	ABILCH	ABILCH×7	Kill	Hannah Gonzalez	set Peyton Fadal	+0.2
28	10-18	ABILCH	ABILCH×7	Kill	Alyssa Todd	set Rachel Koss	+0.3
29	11-18	ABILCH	ABILCH×7	Ace	Abilene Christian	aced Aubrey Acheson	+0.5
30	12-18	ABILCH	ABILCH×7	Kill	Hadlee Welch		+0.8
31	13-18	ABILCH	ABILCH×7	Ace	Abilene Christian	aced Madison Natori Rice-Locket	+1.2
32	14-18	ABILCH	ABILCH×7	Blocked	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	blk Hadlee Welch, Hannah Gonzalez	+1.6
33	14-19	ABILCH	TARLET	Kill	Madison Frank	set Peyton Fadal	+1.8
34	14-20	TARLET	TARLET	Blocked	Alyssa Todd	blk Onita Davis	+1.6
35	15-20	TARLET	ABILCH	Serve err	Tarleton St.		+0.7
36	15-21	ABILCH	TARLET	Attack err	Hannah Gonzalez		+1.1
37	15-22	TARLET	TARLET	Blocked	Hannah Gonzalez	blk LaNeah Lara, Alyssa Dinh	+0.8
38	16-22	TARLET	ABILCH	Blocked	Onita Davis	blk Hannah Gonzalez, Alyssa Todd	+0.3
39	16-23	ABILCH	TARLET×3	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Peyton Fadal	+0.5
40	16-24	TARLET	TARLET×3	Ace	Tarleton St.	aced Izabelle Larson	+0.2
41	16-25	TARLET	TARLET×3	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Alexis Massey	·
Set 2
1	0-1	ABILCH	TARLET	Serve err	Abilene Christian		+1.9
2	1-1	TARLET	ABILCH	Kill	Aubrey Beaver	set Izabelle Larson	+1.9
3	1-2	ABILCH	TARLET	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Peyton Fadal	+2.0
4	1-3	TARLET	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Peyton Fadal	+2.5
5	2-3	TARLET	ABILCH	Kill	Avery Thaler	set Rachel Koss	+1.9
6	2-4	ABILCH	TARLET	Attack err	Hadlee Welch		+2.0
7	3-4	TARLET	ABILCH	Kill	Avery Thaler	set Rachel Koss	+1.9
8	4-4	ABILCH	ABILCH	Attack err	LaNeah Lara		+2.6
9	4-5	ABILCH	TARLET×3	Kill	Onita Davis	set Peyton Fadal	+2.1
10	4-6	TARLET	TARLET×3	Attack err	Alyssa Todd		+2.6
11	4-7	TARLET	TARLET×3	Kill	Alyssa Dinh	set Alexis Massey	+2.5
12	5-7	TARLET	ABILCH	Kill	Avery Thaler	set Rachel Koss	+1.9
13	5-8	ABILCH	TARLET	Serve err	Abilene Christian		+2.1
14	5-9	TARLET	TARLET	Attack err	Hadlee Welch		+2.4
15	6-9	TARLET	ABILCH×3	Kill	Alyssa Todd	set Hannah Gonzalez	+1.7
16	7-9	ABILCH	ABILCH×3	Ace	Abilene Christian	aced Aubrey Acheson	+2.5
17	8-9	ABILCH	ABILCH×3	Kill	Hannah Gonzalez	set Rachel Koss	+2.7
18	8-10	ABILCH	TARLET×3	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Alexis Massey	+2.3
19	8-11	TARLET	TARLET×3	Attack err	Maddie Finnegan		+2.8
20	8-12	TARLET	TARLET×3	Kill	Madison Frank	set Alexis Massey	+2.6
21	9-12	TARLET	ABILCH	Kill	Alyssa Todd	set Rachel Koss	+1.8
22	9-13	ABILCH	TARLET	Kill	Breannah Peterson	set Rachel Koss	+2.1
23	10-13	TARLET	ABILCH	Kill	Hannah Gonzalez	set Rachel Koss	+1.8
24	11-13	ABILCH	ABILCH	Attack err	Madison Natori Rice-Locket		+2.7
25	11-14	ABILCH	TARLET×3	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Peyton Fadal	+2.4
26	11-15	TARLET	TARLET×3	Attack err	Aubrey Beaver		+2.7
27	11-16	TARLET	TARLET×3	Kill	Onita Davis	set Leddy Rae Guinn	+2.3
28	12-16	TARLET	ABILCH	Kill	Aubrey Beaver	set Brennan Ramirez	+1.4
29	12-17	ABILCH	TARLET	Kill	Madison Frank	set Peyton Fadal	+1.8
30	13-17	TARLET	ABILCH	Serve err	Tarleton St.		+1.4
31	14-17		ABILCH	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+2.3
32	14-18	ABILCH	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Peyton Fadal	+2.3
33	15-18	TARLET	ABILCH	Serve err	Tarleton St.		+1.8
34	15-19	ABILCH	TARLET	Serve err	Abilene Christian		+2.4
35	16-19	TARLET	ABILCH	Kill	Hannah Gonzalez	set Rachel Koss	+1.8
36	16-20	ABILCH	TARLET	Kill	Alyssa Dinh	set Alexis Massey	+2.4
37	17-20	TARLET	ABILCH	Kill	Hannah Gonzalez	set Rachel Koss	+1.7
38	18-20	ABILCH	ABILCH	Blocked	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	blk Rachel Koss, Hannah Gonzalez	+3.1
39	18-21	ABILCH	TARLET×4	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Alexis Massey	+3.2
40	18-22	TARLET	TARLET×4	Attack err	Aubrey Beaver		+3.0
41	18-23	TARLET	TARLET×4	Kill	Onita Davis	set Leddy Rae Guinn	+1.8
42	18-24	TARLET	TARLET×4	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Madison Frank	+0.8
43	19-24	TARLET	ABILCH	Kill	Aubrey Beaver	set Hannah Gonzalez	+0.1
44	19-25	ABILCH	TARLET	Serve err	Abilene Christian		+0.3
Set 3
1	0-1	TARLET	TARLET	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Peyton Fadal	+1.6
2	1-1	TARLET	ABILCH×3	Kill	Izabelle Larson	set Rachel Koss	+1.3
3	2-1	ABILCH	ABILCH×3	Kill	Alyssa Todd	set Rachel Koss	+1.6
4	3-1	ABILCH	ABILCH×3	Blocked	Madison Frank	blk Alyssa Todd, Avery Thaler	+1.6
5	3-2	ABILCH	TARLET	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Peyton Fadal	+1.2
6	4-2	TARLET	ABILCH	Attack err	LaNeah Lara		+1.3
7	4-3	ABILCH	TARLET	Serve err	Abilene Christian		+1.3
8	5-3	TARLET	ABILCH×3	Kill	Hannah Gonzalez	set Rachel Koss	+1.3
9	6-3	ABILCH	ABILCH×3	Ace	Abilene Christian	aced LaNeah Lara	+1.6
10	7-3	ABILCH	ABILCH×3	Ace	Abilene Christian	aced Madison Natori Rice-Locket	+1.5
11	7-4	ABILCH	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Onita Davis	+1.1
12	8-4	TARLET	ABILCH	Kill	Hannah Gonzalez	set Rachel Koss	+1.2
13	8-5	ABILCH	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Alexis Massey	+1.1
14	9-5	TARLET	ABILCH	Kill	Alexis Strong	set Rachel Koss	+1.3
15	9-6	ABILCH	TARLET×3	Kill	Breannah Peterson	set Alexis Massey	+1.1
16	9-7	TARLET	TARLET×3	Blocked	Avery Thaler	blk Madison Natori Rice-Locket, Madison Frank	+1.6
17	9-8	TARLET	TARLET×3	Blocked	Avery Thaler	blk Madison Natori Rice-Locket, Madison Frank	+1.8
18	10-8	TARLET	ABILCH	Serve err	Tarleton St.		+1.5
19	10-9	ABILCH	TARLET×4	Kill	Madison Frank	set Alexis Massey	+1.5
20	10-10	TARLET	TARLET×4	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Madison Frank	+2.0
21	10-11	TARLET	TARLET×4	Attack err	Jayla Jackson		+2.1
22	10-12	TARLET	TARLET×4	Blocked	Avery Thaler	blk Madison Frank	+2.1
23	11-12	TARLET	ABILCH	Kill	Alexis Strong	set Rachel Koss	+1.5
24	11-13	ABILCH	TARLET×3	Kill	Madison Frank	set Peyton Fadal	+1.7
25	11-14	TARLET	TARLET×3	Attack err	Avery Thaler		+2.0
26	11-15	TARLET	TARLET×3	Attack err	Annaleise Sevier		+1.8
27	12-15	TARLET	ABILCH	Kill	Annaleise Sevier	set Rachel Koss	+1.2
28	12-16	ABILCH	TARLET	Kill	Madison Frank	set Peyton Fadal	+1.5
29	13-16	TARLET	ABILCH	Kill	Alyssa Todd	set Rachel Koss	+1.2
30	13-17	ABILCH	TARLET	Serve err	Abilene Christian		+1.5
31	14-17	TARLET	ABILCH×3	Kill	Alyssa Todd	set Rachel Koss	+1.2
32	15-17	ABILCH	ABILCH×3	Kill	Alexis Strong	set Alyssa Todd	+1.9
33	16-17	ABILCH	ABILCH×3	Kill	Hannah Gonzalez	set Rachel Koss	+2.3
34	16-18	ABILCH	TARLET×3	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Alexis Massey	+2.1
35	16-19	TARLET	TARLET×3	Attack err	Alexis Strong		+2.4
36	16-20	TARLET	TARLET×3	Attack err	Alexis Strong		+2.0
37	17-20	TARLET	ABILCH	Kill	Hannah Gonzalez	set Rachel Koss	+1.1
38	17-21	ABILCH	TARLET	Serve err	Abilene Christian		+1.6
39	17-22	TARLET	TARLET	Ace	Tarleton St.		+1.3
40	18-22	TARLET	ABILCH	Kill	Alexis Strong	set Rachel Koss	+0.5
41	18-23	ABILCH	TARLET	Kill	Breannah Peterson	set Alexis Massey	+0.9
42	18-24	TARLET	TARLET	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Onita Davis	+0.5
43	19-24	TARLET	ABILCH	Kill	Annaleise Sevier	set Rachel Koss	+0.1
44	19-25	ABILCH	TARLET	Kill	Madison Frank	set Peyton Fadal	+0.2

Score shown after each rally, Abilene Christian first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Tarleton St. def. Abilene Christian 3–0

Tarleton St. held Abilene Christian under 20 in every set.