Tarleton State vs Abilene Christian Prediction

ScheduledThu, Nov 5, 2026ESPN+

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Tarleton St. (10-15) at Abilene Christian (17-7), Thu, Nov 5, 2026, 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+. RallyIQ gives Abilene Christian a 70% chance to win. In their only meeting this season, Tarleton St. won 3-0 on Oct 10.

Data through Nov 3, 8:40 PM CT

Match prediction

TARLET 29.5%70.5% ABILCH

Tarleton St. wins

3-0

5.6%

3-1

10.3%

3-2

13.6%

Abilene Christian wins

3-0

23.6%

3-1

27.0%

3-2

19.8%

TARLET break %: 41.9% vs this opp
ABILCH break %: 46.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season so far.

Once the first serve goes up, this becomes a live win-probability chart that updates point by point.