Final · 4 setsThu, Oct 15, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Santa Clara def. Pacific 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Santa Clara 97.6% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 15, 8:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Santa Clara beat visiting Pacific 3-1 (25-16, 21-25, 25-10, 26-24) on Thu, Oct 15, 2026. Santa Clara's Cate Shanahan led with 25 kills, and Lexi Trapani added 25 digs.

Data through · final Oct 15

Set1234Sets
PACIF162510241
STCLAR252125263

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Santa Clara broke it open with a 9–0 run in the third set.

No single rally moved win probability more than 3.1 points. Pacific peaked at 12% in Set 3. These are the stats that built the gap. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Santa Clara at 98%.

PacificSanta Clara
  • Break %+14.2 pts
    36.851.0

    49 of 96 on serve vs 28 of 76, so Pacific's sideout was 49.0%.

  • Hitting+.149
    .142.291

    Kills and errors: 59–16 vs 43–23.

  • Longest run+3
    69

    From 7–7 in the third set, Santa Clara scored 9 straight to lead 16–7. That set ended 25–10.

Santa Clara above 50Pacific belowMax swing 3.1%

PacificSanta Clara

Aces
Pacific 6·Santa Clara 6
Serve err
Pacific 7·Santa Clara 10
Blocks
Pacific 7·Santa Clara 91 BS · 12 BA vs 1 BS · 16 BA
Digs
Pacific 65·Santa Clara 65

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Santa Clara above 50 · Pacific below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+3.1% PACIFrally 172 · set 4

Biggest swing: 3.1% to Pacific — set 4, PACIF 23-23 STCLAR. Cate Shanahan stuffed by Adeline Sirbu & Hanna Vorhies. STCLAR win probability 97% → 94%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

PACIF 2.1%97.9% STCLAR

Pacific wins

3-0
0.2%
3-1
0.5%
3-2
1.4%

Santa Clara wins

3-0
66.6%
3-1
25.3%
3-2
6.0%
PACIF break %
33.5% vs this opp
STCLAR break %
48.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Cate Shanahan stuffed by Adeline Sirbu & Hanna Vorhies

    Set 4 · PACIF 23-23 STCLAR · PACIF 3% → 6%

  2. 02
    Tia KapiheKill+2.9%

    Kill by Tia Kapihe (set by Macy Hinshaw)

    Set 4 · PACIF 24-26 STCLAR · STCLAR 97% → 100%

  3. 03
    Vanessa ZussinoService error+2.8%

    Service error by Vanessa Zussino

    Set 4 · PACIF 23-24 STCLAR · STCLAR 94% → 97%

  4. 04
    Cate ShanahanAttack error+2.8%

    Attack error by Cate Shanahan

    Set 4 · PACIF 24-24 STCLAR · PACIF 3% → 6%

  5. 05
    Tia KapiheKill+2.8%

    Kill by Tia Kapihe (set by Macy Hinshaw)

    Set 4 · PACIF 24-25 STCLAR · STCLAR 94% → 97%

  6. 06

    Cate Shanahan stuffed by Adeline Sirbu & Vanessa Zussino

    Set 4 · PACIF 19-19 STCLAR · PACIF 3% → 5%

  7. 07
    Kaia GrieveAttack error+1.9%

    Attack error by Kaia Grieve

    Set 3 · PACIF 5-1 STCLAR · PACIF 10% → 12%

  8. 08
    Adeline SirbuKill+1.7%

    Kill by Adeline Sirbu (set by Alessia Couchond)

    Set 3 · PACIF 4-1 STCLAR · PACIF 9% → 10%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
412637.1620215412216
48723.0431000004210
44319.053012710216
4002.00022231100002
4000–0111010001
32312-.083000000002
47219.263000400218
45110.400000000216
4000–1600700000
4000–3001700000
34118.167000400004
11011.000000000001
1000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals4323141.1424267656112775
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
425760.3001214102128
49317.35300010174.513.5
410124.37500110010.510.5
4206.3334900120010.52.5
4001.000023300002
3318.25000020010.53.5
45013.385101140010.55.5
4000–5242540002
23314.000000210214
2215.20000010010.52.5
Team totals5916148.29156610656116997

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Pacific vs Santa Clara

Season series · Santa Clara leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 PACIF · STCLAR 9

Set 1

16-25

Longest run 2 PACIFSTCLAR 6

Set 2

25-21

Longest run 6 PACIFSTCLAR 3

Set 3

10-25

Longest run 4 PACIFSTCLAR 9

Set 4

24-26

Longest run 3 PACIFSTCLAR 4

Bars above the line = Santa Clara leads, below = Pacific leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Pacific

SlotSideout %Break %
1
63%10/16
55%11/20
2
40%8/20
18%2/11
3
44%8/18
47%7/15
4
50%7/14
11%1/9
5
39%7/18
30%3/10
6
70%7/10
36%4/11
All
49%47/96
37%28/76

Santa Clara

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%10/20
43%6/14
2
53%8/15
55%11/20
3
80%8/10
50%8/16
4
80%8/10
50%8/16
5
78%7/9
65%13/20
6
58%7/12
30%3/10
All
63%48/76
51%49/96

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

172 rallies

#PACIF-STCLARSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1STCLARSTCLARBlockedVanessa Zussinoblk Danielle Brown, Allison Dzieciuch+0.3
21-1STCLARPACIFKillAdeline Sirbuset Alessia Couchond+0.2
31-2PACIFSTCLARAttack errAdeline Sirbu+0.2
42-2STCLARPACIFKillAdeline Sirbuset Alessia Couchond+0.3
53-2PACIFPACIFAceVanessa Zussinoaced Selin Aslayan+0.4
63-3PACIFSTCLARKillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+0.3
74-3STCLARPACIFServe errLexi Trapani+0.3
84-4PACIFSTCLARKillDanielle Brownset Macy Hinshaw+0.3
95-4STCLARPACIFKillHanna Vorhiesset Chloe Giehtbrock+0.4
105-5PACIFSTCLARKillGrace Flanaganset Macy Hinshaw+0.3
116-5STCLARPACIFKillHanna Vorhiesset Chloe Giehtbrock+0.4
126-6PACIFSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Lexi Trapani+0.3
137-6STCLARPACIFKillVanessa Zussinoset Chloe Giehtbrock+0.4
148-6PACIFPACIFAttack errAllison Dzieciuch+0.6
158-7PACIFSTCLAR×3Serve errAlessia Couchond+0.4
168-8STCLARSTCLAR×3BlockedNicole Zakeblk Cate Shanahan+0.5
178-9STCLARSTCLAR×3KillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+0.4
189-9STCLARPACIFKillAdeline Sirbuset Alessia Couchond+0.4
199-10PACIFSTCLAR×6KillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+0.3
209-11STCLARSTCLAR×6BlockedVanessa Zussinoblk Selin Aslayan, Allison Dzieciuch+0.4
219-12STCLARSTCLAR×6BlockedAdeline Sirbublk Allison Dzieciuch, Selin Aslayan+0.3
229-13STCLARSTCLAR×6AceCate Shanahanaced Vanessa Zussino+0.2
239-14STCLARSTCLAR×6AceCate Shanahanaced Vanessa Zussino+0.2
249-15STCLARSTCLAR×6KillDanielle Brownset Macy Hinshaw+0.1
2510-15STCLARPACIFKillVanessa Zussinoset Alessia Couchond+0.1
2611-15PACIFPACIFAceVanessa Zussinoaced Cate Shanahan+0.1
2711-16PACIFSTCLAR×4KillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+0.1
2811-17STCLARSTCLAR×4Attack errHannah Koester+0.1
2911-18STCLARSTCLAR×4KillGrace Flanaganset Macy Hinshaw+0.1
3011-19STCLARSTCLAR×4KillSelin Aslayanset Macy Hinshaw·
3112-19STCLARPACIFKillHannah Koesterset Alessia Couchond·
3212-20PACIFSTCLARAttack errHanna Vorhies·
3312-21STCLARSTCLARKillMacy Hinshawset Tia Kapihe·
3413-21STCLARPACIFKillHanna Vorhiesset Chloe Giehtbrock·
3514-21PACIFPACIFBlockedSelin Aslayanblk Hanna Vorhies, Ellie Prindl·
3614-22PACIFSTCLARKillGrace Flanaganset Macy Hinshaw·
3714-23STCLARSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Lexi Trapani·
3815-23STCLARPACIFAttack errCate Shanahan·
3915-24PACIFSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw·
4016-24STCLARPACIFKillEllie Prindlset Chloe Giehtbrock·
4116-25PACIFSTCLARBlockedNicole Zakeblk Macy Hinshaw, Allison Dzieciuch·
Set 2
10-1PACIFSTCLARKillSelin Aslayanset Macy Hinshaw+0.1
21-1STCLARPACIFKillAdeline Sirbuset Alessia Couchond+0.2
31-2PACIFSTCLAR×3Serve errNicole Zake+0.1
41-3STCLARSTCLAR×3KillGrace Flanagan+0.2
51-4STCLARSTCLAR×3KillGrace Flanaganset Macy Hinshaw+0.1
62-4STCLARPACIFKillGracie Armatoset Alessia Couchond+0.1
72-5PACIFSTCLARKillGrace Flanaganset Macy Hinshaw+0.1
82-6STCLARSTCLARKillGrace Flanaganset Alessia Couchond+0.1
93-6STCLARPACIFKillHanna Vorhiesset Alessia Couchond+0.1
103-7PACIFSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+0.1
114-7STCLARPACIFServe errGrace Flanagan+0.1
124-8PACIFSTCLARKillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+0.1
135-8STCLARPACIFBlockedDanielle Brownblk Nicole Zake+0.1
146-8PACIFPACIFKillVanessa Zussinoset Chloe Giehtbrock+0.2
156-9PACIFSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+0.1
166-10STCLARSTCLARKillSelin Aslayanset Macy Hinshaw+0.1
177-10STCLARPACIFServe errCate Shanahan+0.1
187-11PACIFSTCLARServe errAlessia Couchond+0.1
198-11STCLARPACIFServe errLexi Trapani+0.1
209-11PACIFPACIFKillVanessa Zussinoset Alessia Couchond+0.2
219-12PACIFSTCLARKillMacy Hinshawset Cate Shanahan+0.1
2210-12STCLARPACIFKillGracie Armatoset Alessia Couchond+0.1
2310-13PACIFSTCLARAttack errHanna Vorhies+0.1
2411-13STCLARPACIFServe errAshlynn Reilly+0.1
2511-14PACIFSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+0.1
2611-15STCLARSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+0.2
2712-15STCLARPACIF×3Attack errHanna Vorhies+0.1
2813-15PACIFPACIF×3KillHanna Vorhiesset Chloe Giehtbrock+0.2
2914-15PACIFPACIF×3Attack errCate Shanahan+0.3
3014-16PACIFSTCLAR×3KillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+0.2
3114-17STCLARSTCLAR×3KillCate Shanahanset Lexi Trapani+0.3
3214-18STCLARSTCLAR×3KillDanielle Brownset Macy Hinshaw+0.2
3315-18STCLARPACIF×3KillNicole Zakeset Chloe Giehtbrock+0.1
3416-18PACIFPACIF×3KillVanessa Zussinoset Isabella Gutierrez+0.2
3517-18PACIFPACIF×3KillNicole Zake+0.4
3617-19PACIFSTCLARKillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+0.3
3718-19STCLARPACIF×6KillEllie Prindlset Chloe Giehtbrock+0.3
3819-19PACIFPACIF×6AceAlessia Couchondaced Lexi Trapani+0.6
3920-19PACIFPACIF×6KillNicole Zakeset Alessia Couchond+0.8
4021-19PACIFPACIF×6BlockedAllison Dzieciuchblk Adeline Sirbu, Vanessa Zussino+1.0
4122-19PACIFPACIF×6BlockedSelin Aslayanblk Vanessa Zussino+1.0
4223-19PACIFPACIF×6Attack errSelin Aslayan+0.8
4323-20PACIFSTCLARServe errAlessia Couchond+0.3
4423-21STCLARSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+0.6
4524-21STCLARPACIFKillAdeline Sirbuset Alessia Couchond+0.9
4625-21PACIFPACIFAceNicole Zakeaced Lexi Trapani+0.6
Set 3
11-0STCLARPACIFKillEllie Prindlset Chloe Giehtbrock+0.8
21-1PACIFSTCLARBlockedNicole Zakeblk Tia Kapihe, Allison Dzieciuch+0.7
32-1STCLARPACIF×4KillVanessa Zussinoset Chloe Giehtbrock+0.9
43-1PACIFPACIF×4Attack errAllison Dzieciuch+1.4
54-1PACIFPACIF×4KillAdeline Sirbuset Alessia Couchond+1.7
65-1PACIFPACIF×4Attack errKaia Grieve+1.9
75-2PACIFSTCLAR×3KillTia Kapiheset Macy Hinshaw+1.1
85-3STCLARSTCLAR×3Attack errVanessa Zussino+1.6
95-4STCLARSTCLAR×3AceLexi Trapaniaced Ella Gridley+1.4
106-4STCLARPACIFKillVanessa Zussinoset Alessia Couchond+1.2
116-5PACIFSTCLAR×3Attack errVanessa Zussino+1.0
126-6STCLARSTCLAR×3Attack errAdeline Sirbu+1.3
136-7STCLARSTCLAR×3Attack errGracie Armato+1.2
147-7STCLARPACIFServe errTia Kapihe+0.9
157-8PACIFSTCLAR×9KillGrace Flanaganset Macy Hinshaw+0.8
167-9STCLARSTCLAR×9BlockedAdeline Sirbublk Grace Flanagan, Cate Shanahan+1.0
177-10STCLARSTCLAR×9KillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+0.8
187-11STCLARSTCLAR×9KillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+0.6
197-12STCLARSTCLAR×9KillGrace Flanaganset Macy Hinshaw+0.4
207-13STCLARSTCLAR×9AceAshlynn Reillyaced Vanessa Zussino+0.3
217-14STCLARSTCLAR×9KillCate Shanahanset Lexi Trapani+0.2
227-15STCLARSTCLAR×9KillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+0.1
237-16STCLARSTCLAR×9KillCate Shanahanset Lexi Trapani+0.1
248-16STCLARPACIFServe errAshlynn Reilly·
258-17PACIFSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw·
268-18STCLARSTCLARKillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw·
279-18STCLARPACIFKillEllie Prindlset Chloe Giehtbrock·
289-19PACIFSTCLARKillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw·
299-20STCLARSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw·
3010-20STCLARPACIFKillOlga Gergaczset Chloe Giehtbrock·
3110-21PACIFSTCLAR×5Attack errCate Shanahan·
3210-22STCLARSTCLAR×5KillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw·
3310-23STCLARSTCLAR×5KillTia Kapiheset Macy Hinshaw·
3410-24STCLARSTCLAR×5Attack errVanessa Zussino·
3510-25STCLARSTCLAR×5BlockedEllie Prindlblk Kaia Grieve, Allison Dzieciuch·
Set 4
11-0PACIFPACIFBlockedGrace Flanaganblk Nicole Zake, Adeline Sirbu+0.8
21-1PACIFSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+0.5
32-1STCLARPACIFKillVanessa Zussinoset Adeline Sirbu+0.6
42-2PACIFSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+0.5
53-2STCLARPACIFKillAdeline Sirbuset Alessia Couchond+0.7
63-3PACIFSTCLAR×4KillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+0.6
73-4STCLARSTCLAR×4Attack errAdeline Sirbu+0.7
83-5STCLARSTCLAR×4Attack errHannah Koester+0.6
93-6STCLARSTCLAR×4Attack errAdeline Sirbu+0.5
104-6STCLARPACIFKillVanessa Zussinoset Alessia Couchond+0.4
115-6PACIFPACIFKillHannah Koesterset Chloe Giehtbrock+0.6
125-7PACIFSTCLARKillKaia Grieveset Macy Hinshaw+0.4
135-8STCLARSTCLARAttack errHannah Koester+0.5
146-8STCLARPACIFServe errLexi Trapani+0.4
156-9PACIFSTCLARKillKaia Grieveset Macy Hinshaw+0.4
167-9STCLARPACIFKillHanna Vorhiesset Chloe Giehtbrock+0.4
177-10PACIFSTCLARServe errElla Gridley+0.4
188-10STCLARPACIF×3KillVanessa Zussinoset Isabella Gutierrez+0.4
199-10PACIFPACIF×3AceAlessia Couchondaced Lexi Trapani+0.8
2010-10PACIFPACIF×3KillNicole Zakeset Alessia Couchond+1.0
2110-11PACIFSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+0.7
2211-11STCLARPACIFKillAdeline Sirbuset Alessia Couchond+0.8
2311-12PACIFSTCLARServe errNicole Zake+0.7
2412-12STCLARPACIFKillGracie Armatoset Alessia Couchond+0.9
2512-13PACIFSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+0.8
2612-14STCLARSTCLARAttack errVanessa Zussino+1.0
2713-14STCLARPACIFKillGracie Armatoset Alessia Couchond+0.7
2813-15PACIFSTCLARKillTia Kapiheset Macy Hinshaw+0.7
2913-16STCLARSTCLARAceLexi Trapaniaced Vanessa Zussino+0.8
3014-16STCLARPACIFServe errLexi Trapani+0.5
3114-17PACIFSTCLARKillGrace Flanaganset Macy Hinshaw+0.6
3215-17STCLARPACIFKillEllie Prindlset Chloe Giehtbrock+0.6
3316-17PACIFPACIFAceElla Gridleyaced Lexi Trapani+1.1
3416-18PACIFSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+0.8
3516-19STCLARSTCLARAceAshlynn Reillyaced Nicole Zake+0.9
3617-19STCLARPACIF×3Serve errAshlynn Reilly+0.6
3718-19PACIFPACIF×3Attack errCate Shanahan+1.3
3819-19PACIFPACIF×3BlockedCate Shanahanblk Adeline Sirbu, Vanessa Zussino+1.9
3919-20PACIFSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+1.4
4019-21STCLARSTCLARBlockedAdeline Sirbublk Allison Dzieciuch+1.7
4120-21STCLARPACIFKillVanessa Zussinoset Alessia Couchond+1.1
4220-22PACIFSTCLARAttack errVanessa Zussino+1.2
4320-23STCLARSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+1.2
4421-23STCLARPACIF×3KillVanessa Zussinoset Alessia Couchond+0.5
4522-23PACIFPACIF×3KillHanna Vorhiesset Isabella Gutierrez+1.5
4623-23PACIFPACIF×3BlockedCate Shanahanblk Adeline Sirbu, Hanna Vorhies+3.1
4723-24PACIFSTCLARServe errVanessa Zussino+2.8
4824-24STCLARPACIFAttack errCate Shanahan+2.8
4924-25PACIFSTCLARKillTia Kapiheset Macy Hinshaw+2.8
5024-26STCLARSTCLARKillTia Kapiheset Macy Hinshaw+2.9

Score shown after each rally, Pacific first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).