Final · 5 setsFri, Oct 23, 2026

New Haven def. Stonehill 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: New Haven 82.1% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 23, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

New Haven beat visiting Stonehill 3-2 (25-11, 21-25, 25-18, 20-25, 15-11) on Fri, Oct 23, 2026. New Haven's Marley Alefaio led with 19 kills, and Payton Malinoski added 13 digs.

Data through · final Oct 23

Set12345Sets
STONEH11251825112
NEWHAV25212520153

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Camryn Harris served 4 aces, and New Haven needed every one.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are New Haven's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. Pre-match, RallyIQ had New Haven at 82%.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 5 · Stonehill 3–3 New Haven

    From 3–3, Stonehill scored 5 straight to lead 8–3. The match swung to Stonehill.

    New Haven 63% → 16%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Stonehill 10–8 New Haven

    New Haven had 3 straight kills to turn an 8–10 deficit into an 11–10 lead. The match swung to New Haven.

    New Haven 35% → 72%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Stonehill 11–11 New Haven

    4 of the last 4 rallies went to New Haven, enough to take the set 15–11 and win the match 3–2.

    New Haven 61% → >99%

New Haven above 50Stonehill belowMax swing 14.2%

StonehillNew Haven

Sideout %
Stonehill 47.2·New Haven 55.6
Break %
Stonehill 44.4·New Haven 52.8
Hitting
Stonehill .202·New Haven .238
Longest run
Stonehill 6·New Haven 6

Marley Alefaio
3 of her kills came in the stretches above. 19 K, .279, 19 points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

New Haven above 50 · Stonehill below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+14.2% NEWHAVrally 196 · set 5

Biggest swing: 14.2% to New Haven — set 5, STONEH 11-13 NEWHAV. Kill by Kira Lynch (set by Casey McDermott). NEWHAV win probability 73% → 87%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

STONEH 21.0%79.0% NEWHAV

Stonehill wins

3-0
3.5%
3-1
7.0%
3-2
10.5%

New Haven wins

3-0
30.6%
3-1
29.9%
3-2
18.5%
STONEH break %
40.9% vs this opp
NEWHAV break %
47.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Kira LynchKill+14.2%

    Kill by Kira Lynch (set by Casey McDermott)

    Set 5 · STONEH 11-13 NEWHAV · NEWHAV 73% → 87%

  2. 02
    Marley AlefaioKill+14.1%

    Kill by Marley Alefaio (set by Zaira Kearns)

    Set 5 · STONEH 10-11 NEWHAV · NEWHAV 58% → 72%

  3. 03

    Kill by Lauren MacKellar (set by Zaira Kearns)

    Set 5 · STONEH 10-10 NEWHAV · NEWHAV 44% → 58%

  4. 04
    Marley AlefaioKill+12.1%

    Kill by Marley Alefaio (set by Zaira Kearns)

    Set 5 · STONEH 11-12 NEWHAV · NEWHAV 61% → 73%

  5. 05

    Kill by Lauren MacKellar (set by Casey McDermott)

    Set 5 · STONEH 9-8 NEWHAV · NEWHAV 35% → 46%

  6. 06
    Abby FarrellKill+11.1%

    Kill by Abby Farrell (set by Casey McDermott)

    Set 5 · STONEH 11-11 NEWHAV · STONEH 28% → 39%

  7. 07
    Samantha LoydKill+11.0%

    Kill by Samantha Loyd (set by Casey McDermott)

    Set 5 · STONEH 10-8 NEWHAV · STONEH 54% → 65%

  8. 08
    Haley HerndonKill+10.6%

    Kill by Haley Herndon (set by Kendra Sawyer)

    Set 5 · STONEH 6-3 NEWHAV · STONEH 55% → 65%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
514632.2500221304218
59217.4121322024416
57328.1430021210007
56213.308100000006
53110.200100002236
5002.0002000200000
54421.000000100215
5000–011100001
5000–1151320001
4001.000001300000
3000–612200001
3000–800000000
Team totals4318124.202388153784121090
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
519743.2790006100019
514535.2571239012218
510520.25000100212.512.5
5225.000000101224
52021.0004220800004
5000–300800000
510725.12000010010.510.5
5000–144810004
5000–3011330000
1000–000000000
Team totals5726130.2385089548467106

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Stonehill vs New Haven

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 STONEH · NEWHAV 6

Set 1

11-25

Longest run 2 STONEHNEWHAV 6

Set 2

25-21

Longest run 6 STONEHNEWHAV 3

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 5 STONEHNEWHAV 5

Set 4

25-20

Longest run 4 STONEHNEWHAV 4

Set 5

11-15

Longest run 5 STONEHNEWHAV 4

Bars above the line = New Haven leads, below = Stonehill leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Stonehill

SlotSideout %Break %
1
56%5/9
0%0/3
2
45%5/11
55%6/11
3
45%5/11
55%6/11
4
63%5/8
29%2/7
5
36%4/11
38%3/8
6
20%2/10
57%4/7
All
43%26/60
45%21/47

New Haven

SlotSideout %Break %
1
45%5/11
50%4/8
2
45%5/11
58%7/12
3
71%5/7
58%7/12
4
63%5/8
44%4/9
5
57%4/7
29%2/7
6
67%2/3
83%10/12
All
55%26/47
57%34/60

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

196 rallies

#STONEH-NEWHAVSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1STONEHNEWHAV×4KillMarley Alefaioset Zaira Kearns+1.1
20-2NEWHAVNEWHAV×4KillQuinn Yenshawset Zaira Kearns+1.4
30-3NEWHAVNEWHAV×4AceNew Havenaced Samantha Loyd+1.2
40-4NEWHAVNEWHAV×4Bad setKendra Sawyer+1.1
51-4NEWHAVSTONEHServe errNew Haven+0.8
61-5STONEHNEWHAVKillLauren MacKellarset Zaira Kearns+0.8
71-6NEWHAVNEWHAVKillJosie Foster+0.9
82-6NEWHAVSTONEHAttack errLauren MacKellar+0.7
92-7STONEHNEWHAVKillLauren MacKellarset Zaira Kearns+0.7
103-7NEWHAVSTONEHServe errNew Haven+0.7
113-8STONEHNEWHAVKillJosie Fosterset Zaira Kearns+0.7
124-8NEWHAVSTONEHKillSamantha Loydset Rosa Smith+0.7
134-9STONEHNEWHAV×6Serve errStonehill+0.7
144-10NEWHAVNEWHAV×6KillZaira Kearnsset Alejandra Mejia+0.8
154-11NEWHAVNEWHAV×6KillMarley Alefaioset Zaira Kearns+0.6
164-12NEWHAVNEWHAV×6Attack errSammy Franco+0.4
174-13NEWHAVNEWHAV×6KillZaira Kearns+0.3
184-14NEWHAVNEWHAV×6BlockedAbby Farrellblk Kira Lynch+0.2
195-14NEWHAVSTONEHServe errNew Haven+0.1
206-14STONEHSTONEHBlockedMarley Alefaioblk Annabelle Svenson+0.2
216-15STONEHNEWHAV×4KillMarley Alefaioset Alejandra Mejia+0.2
226-16NEWHAVNEWHAV×4AceNew Havenaced Addy Frye+0.1
236-17NEWHAVNEWHAV×4Attack errSammy Franco+0.1
246-18NEWHAVNEWHAV×4BlockedSamantha Loydblk Kira Lynch, Lauren MacKellar·
257-18NEWHAVSTONEHKillSammy Francoset Rosa Smith·
267-19STONEHNEWHAVBad setKendra Sawyer·
278-19NEWHAVSTONEHKillSamantha Loydset Kendra Sawyer·
288-20STONEHNEWHAVKillKira Lynchset Zaira Kearns·
298-21NEWHAVNEWHAVKillQuinn Yenshawset Zaira Kearns·
309-21NEWHAVSTONEHServe errNew Haven·
319-22STONEHNEWHAVServe errStonehill·
329-23NEWHAVNEWHAVBad setAbby Farrell·
3310-23NEWHAVSTONEHKillHaley Herndonset Kendra Sawyer·
3410-24STONEHNEWHAVServe errStonehill·
3511-24NEWHAVSTONEHKillAbby Farrellset Rosa Smith·
3611-25STONEHNEWHAVServe errStonehill·
Set 2
11-0NEWHAVSTONEHKillHaley Herndonset Kendra Sawyer+1.0
21-1STONEHNEWHAV×3KillMarley Alefaioset Zaira Kearns+0.9
31-2NEWHAVNEWHAV×3AceNew Havenaced Kristina Bishop+1.1
41-3NEWHAVNEWHAV×3AceNew Haven+1.0
52-3NEWHAVSTONEH×4KillSamantha Loydset Kendra Sawyer+0.8
63-3STONEHSTONEH×4AceKristina Bishop+1.2
74-3STONEHSTONEH×4KillHaley Herndonset Kendra Sawyer+1.4
85-3STONEHSTONEH×4Bad setZaira Kearns+1.5
9–106-4STONEH · NEWHAV
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.2
116-5STONEHNEWHAVKillQuinn Yenshawset Camryn Harris+1.1
127-5NEWHAVSTONEHKillSamantha Loydset Kendra Sawyer+1.2
137-6STONEHNEWHAV×3KillJosie Fosterset Zaira Kearns+1.1
147-7NEWHAVNEWHAV×3Attack errSamantha Loyd+1.4
157-8NEWHAVNEWHAV×3AceNew Havenaced Kristina Bishop+1.4
168-8NEWHAVSTONEHServe errNew Haven+1.1
178-9STONEHNEWHAV×3KillJosie Fosterset Zaira Kearns+1.1
188-10NEWHAVNEWHAV×3KillJosie Fosterset Zaira Kearns+1.3
198-11NEWHAVNEWHAV×3Attack errAddy Frye+1.1
209-11NEWHAVSTONEH×4Bad setZaira Kearns+0.8
2110-11STONEHSTONEH×4KillAddy Fryeset Annabelle Svenson+1.3
2211-11STONEHSTONEH×4AceAbby Farrell+1.6
2312-11STONEHSTONEH×4KillSammy Francoset Abby Farrell+1.8
2412-12STONEHNEWHAVAttack errSammy Franco+1.3
2513-12NEWHAVSTONEHKillAddy Fryeset Rosa Smith+1.5
2613-13STONEHNEWHAVBad setKendra Sawyer+1.3
2713-14NEWHAVNEWHAVKillLauren MacKellarset Zaira Kearns+1.7
2814-14NEWHAVSTONEHKillAnnabelle Svensonset Haley Herndon+1.4
2914-15STONEHNEWHAVKillMarley Alefaioset Alejandra Mejia+1.4
3014-16NEWHAVNEWHAVBad setHaley Herndon+1.7
3115-16NEWHAVSTONEHServe errNew Haven+1.2
3215-17STONEHNEWHAVKillLauren MacKellarset Zaira Kearns+1.3
3316-17NEWHAVSTONEH×6KillSamantha Loydset Kendra Sawyer+1.3
3417-17STONEHSTONEH×6Attack errJosie Foster+2.1
3518-17STONEHSTONEH×6KillSamantha Loydset Rosa Smith+2.5
3619-17STONEHSTONEH×6BlockedQuinn Yenshawblk Abby Farrell, Sammy Franco+2.7
3720-17STONEHSTONEH×6BlockedJosie Fosterblk Abby Farrell+2.6
3821-17STONEHSTONEH×6Attack errQuinn Yenshaw+2.3
3921-18STONEHNEWHAVKillLauren MacKellarset Zaira Kearns+1.1
4021-19NEWHAVNEWHAVAceNew Havenaced Samantha Loyd+2.0
4122-19NEWHAVSTONEHServe errNew Haven+2.3
4222-20STONEHNEWHAVKillQuinn Yenshawset Zaira Kearns+1.5
4323-20NEWHAVSTONEHKillAbby Farrellset Rosa Smith+2.4
4423-21STONEHNEWHAVServe errStonehill+1.3
4524-21NEWHAVSTONEHBlockedMarley Alefaioblk Sammy Franco, Annabelle Svenson+2.6
4625-21STONEHSTONEHKillHaley Herndonset Kendra Sawyer+1.5
Set 3
10-1STONEHNEWHAVKillMarley Alefaioset Zaira Kearns+1.8
20-2NEWHAVNEWHAVKillQuinn Yenshawset Zaira Kearns+2.2
31-2NEWHAVSTONEHServe errNew Haven+1.7
41-3STONEHNEWHAVServe errStonehill+1.7
52-3NEWHAVSTONEHBad setLauren MacKellar+1.8
62-4STONEHNEWHAVServe errStonehill+1.7
72-5NEWHAVNEWHAVKillQuinn Yenshawset Zaira Kearns+2.1
83-5NEWHAVSTONEH×5Attack errQuinn Yenshaw+1.6
94-5STONEHSTONEH×5BlockedJosie Fosterblk Samantha Loyd, Abby Farrell+2.4
105-5STONEHSTONEH×5Attack errJosie Foster+2.8
116-5STONEH
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.1
127-5STONEHSTONEH×5AceRosa Smithaced Payton Malinoski+3.4
137-6STONEHNEWHAV×5Serve errRosa Smith+2.3
147-7NEWHAVNEWHAV×5KillMarley Alefaioset Zaira Kearns+3.1
157-8NEWHAVNEWHAV×5KillJosie Fosterset Lauren MacKellar+2.9
167-9NEWHAVNEWHAV×5KillMarley Alefaioset Zaira Kearns+2.7
177-10NEWHAVNEWHAV×5Attack errSamantha Loyd+2.4
188-10NEWHAVSTONEHKillSamantha Loydset Casey McDermott+1.7
199-10STONEHSTONEHAttack errMarley Alefaio+2.8
209-11STONEHNEWHAV×3KillMarley Alefaioset Zaira Kearns+2.2
219-12NEWHAVNEWHAV×3KillLauren MacKellarset Zaira Kearns+2.5
229-13NEWHAVNEWHAV×3Attack errSammy Franco+2.1
2310-13NEWHAVSTONEHKillAbby Farrellset Casey McDermott+1.4
2410-14STONEHNEWHAVBad setSammy Franco+1.6
2511-14NEWHAVSTONEHKillAddy Fryeset Casey McDermott+1.5
2612-14STONEHSTONEHKillAddy Fryeset Kendra Sawyer+2.5
2712-15STONEHNEWHAV×5KillMarley Alefaioset Zaira Kearns+2.1
2812-16NEWHAVNEWHAV×5KillLauren MacKellarset Zaira Kearns+2.3
2912-17NEWHAVNEWHAV×5Attack errAnnabelle Svenson+1.7
3012-18NEWHAVNEWHAV×5AceNew Haven+1.1
3112-19NEWHAVNEWHAV×5BlockedAddy Fryeblk Lauren MacKellar, Kira Lynch+0.7
3213-19NEWHAVSTONEHServe errNew Haven+0.3
3313-20STONEHNEWHAVKillLauren MacKellarset Zaira Kearns+0.5
3413-21NEWHAVNEWHAVBlockedHaley Herndonblk Quinn Yenshaw, Josie Foster+0.3
3514-21NEWHAVSTONEHKillSamantha Loydset Kendra Sawyer+0.1
3614-22STONEHNEWHAVBlockedHaley Herndonblk Josie Foster+0.2
3715-22NEWHAVSTONEHKillAbby Farrellset Kendra Sawyer+0.1
3815-23STONEHNEWHAVKillQuinn Yenshawset Zaira Kearns+0.1
3916-23NEWHAVSTONEHKillAbby Farrellset Casey McDermott·
4016-24STONEHNEWHAVServe errStonehill+0.1
4117-24NEWHAVSTONEHKillSammy Francoset Casey McDermott·
4218-24STONEHSTONEHAceAbby Farrellaced Payton Malinoski·
4318-25STONEHNEWHAVKillMarley Alefaioset Zaira Kearns+0.1
Set 4
10-1NEWHAVNEWHAVAceNew Havenaced Samantha Loyd+1.9
21-1NEWHAVSTONEH×4KillAddy Fryeset Kristina Bishop+1.5
32-1STONEHSTONEH×4Attack errMarley Alefaio+2.2
43-1STONEHSTONEH×4BlockedLauren MacKellarblk Annabelle Svenson, Samantha Loyd+2.3
54-1STONEHSTONEH×4Attack errKira Lynch+2.5
64-2STONEHNEWHAVServe errStonehill+1.7
74-3NEWHAVNEWHAVKillLauren MacKellarset Zaira Kearns+2.2
85-3NEWHAVSTONEH×3KillSamantha Loydset Kendra Sawyer+1.9
96-3STONEHSTONEH×3KillAbby Farrell+2.6
107-3STONEHSTONEH×3KillSamantha Loydset Kendra Sawyer+2.6
117-4STONEHNEWHAV×4Serve errStonehill+1.7
127-5NEWHAVNEWHAV×4KillQuinn Yenshawset Zaira Kearns+2.4
137-6NEWHAVNEWHAV×4KillLauren MacKellarset Zaira Kearns+2.4
147-7NEWHAVNEWHAV×4BlockedSamantha Loydblk Lauren MacKellar+2.4
158-7NEWHAVSTONEH×3Attack errQuinn Yenshaw+2.0
169-7STONEHSTONEH×3Attack errLauren MacKellar+2.8
1710-7STONEHSTONEH×3KillAbby Farrell+2.9
1810-8STONEHNEWHAVKillLauren MacKellarset Zaira Kearns+1.9
1910-9NEWHAVNEWHAVKillJosie Foster+2.7
2011-9NEWHAVSTONEHBlockedQuinn Yenshawblk Abby Farrell, Samantha Loyd+2.3
2111-10STONEHNEWHAVKillJosie Fosterset Zaira Kearns+2.1
2212-10NEWHAVSTONEHKillAddy Fryeset Casey McDermott+2.4
2312-11STONEHNEWHAV×3Serve errStonehill+2.1
2412-12NEWHAVNEWHAV×3KillMarley Alefaio+2.9
2512-13NEWHAVNEWHAV×3KillMarley Alefaioset Zaira Kearns+2.8
2613-13NEWHAVSTONEHKillAnnabelle Svensonset Casey McDermott+2.2
2713-14STONEHNEWHAVKillMarley Alefaioset Zaira Kearns+2.2
2814-14NEWHAVSTONEHAttack errLauren MacKellar+2.3
2915-14STONEHSTONEHAttack errMarley Alefaio+3.5
3015-15STONEHNEWHAVKillMarley Alefaioset Zaira Kearns+2.5
3115-16NEWHAVNEWHAVBad setKendra Sawyer+3.2
3216-16NEWHAVSTONEHKillSamantha Loydset Kendra Sawyer+2.6
3316-17STONEHNEWHAVServe errStonehill+2.6
3417-17NEWHAVSTONEHKillHaley Herndonset Kendra Sawyer+2.7
3517-18STONEHNEWHAVKillLauren MacKellarset Zaira Kearns+2.8
3617-19NEWHAVNEWHAVBlockedSamantha Loydblk Josie Foster+3.3
3718-19NEWHAVSTONEH×4KillSammy Francoset Casey McDermott+2.4
3819-19STONEHSTONEH×4AceSamantha Loyd+4.1
3920-19STONEHSTONEH×4AceSamantha Loydaced Payton Malinoski+4.9
4021-19STONEHSTONEH×4Bad setZaira Kearns+5.3
4121-20STONEHNEWHAVKillJosie Fosterset Zaira Kearns+3.3
4222-20NEWHAVSTONEH×4Attack errJosie Foster+4.6
4323-20STONEHSTONEH×4Attack errMarley Alefaio+5.2
4424-20STONEHSTONEH×4AceAbby Farrellaced Marley Alefaio+3.4
4525-20STONEHSTONEH×4Attack errMarley Alefaio+2.1
Set 5
11-0NEWHAVSTONEH×3KillAddy Fryeset Kendra Sawyer+6.5
22-0STONEHSTONEH×3KillAnnabelle Svensonset Kendra Sawyer+9.1
33-0STONEHSTONEH×3KillSamantha Loydset Kendra Sawyer+9.4
43-1STONEHNEWHAV×3KillMarley Alefaioset Payton Malinoski+6.1
53-2NEWHAVNEWHAV×3Attack errSamantha Loyd+8.6
63-3NEWHAVNEWHAV×3Bad setHaley Herndon+8.7
74-3NEWHAVSTONEH×5Attack errKira Lynch+7.4
85-3STONEHSTONEH×5AceAddison Koontzaced Camryn Harris+10.4
96-3STONEHSTONEH×5KillHaley Herndonset Kendra Sawyer+10.6
107-3STONEHSTONEH×5Attack errQuinn Yenshaw+10.0
118-3STONEHSTONEH×5BlockedLauren MacKellarblk Samantha Loyd, Abby Farrell+8.6
128-4STONEHNEWHAV×3Serve errAddison Koontz+4.5
138-5NEWHAVNEWHAV×3Attack errAbby Farrell+7.6
148-6NEWHAVNEWHAV×3KillJosie Fosterset Zaira Kearns+9.3
159-6NEWHAVSTONEHKillAbby Farrellset Kendra Sawyer+9.5
169-7STONEHNEWHAVKillQuinn Yenshawset Payton Malinoski+7.1
179-8NEWHAVNEWHAVKillLauren MacKellarset Casey McDermott+11.3
1810-8NEWHAVSTONEHKillSamantha Loydset Casey McDermott+11.0
1910-9STONEHNEWHAV×3KillQuinn Yenshawset Payton Malinoski+9.0
2010-10NEWHAVNEWHAV×3KillLauren MacKellarset Zaira Kearns+13.7
2110-11NEWHAVNEWHAV×3KillMarley Alefaioset Zaira Kearns+14.1
2211-11NEWHAVSTONEHKillAbby Farrellset Casey McDermott+11.1
2311-12STONEHNEWHAV×4KillMarley Alefaioset Zaira Kearns+12.1
2411-13NEWHAVNEWHAV×4KillKira Lynchset Casey McDermott+14.2
2511-14NEWHAVNEWHAV×4KillMarley Alefaioset Zaira Kearns+9.2
2611-15NEWHAVNEWHAV×4Attack errAddy Frye+3.3

Score shown after each rally, Stonehill first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).