Mercyhurst vs New Haven Volleyball: Mercyhurst Wins 3-1

Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 30, 2026

3:1

RallyIQ pre-match: New Haven 67.1% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 30, 11:55 AM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Mercyhurst won at New Haven 3-1 (25-21, 25-17, 25-27, 25-19) on Fri, Oct 30, 2026. Mercyhurst's Julia Shepherd led with 13 kills, and Alyssa Krause added 15 digs.

Data through Nov 4, 2:50 PM CT · final Oct 30

Set	1	2	3	4	Sets
MERCYH	25	25	25	25	3
NEWHAV	21	17	27	19	1

Match story · written from the play-by-play

The upset: Mercyhurst, a 33% pick, over New Haven.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are Mercyhurst's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. New Haven went in at 67% by RallyIQ.

Turning point 1: Set 3 · Mercyhurst 19–17 New Haven
Down 17–19, New Haven scored 5 straight to lead 22–19.
Mercyhurst 89% → 70%
Turning point 2: Set 3 · Mercyhurst 24–24 New Haven
3 of the last 4 rallies went to New Haven, enough to take the set 27–25 and pull within 1–2.
Mercyhurst 81% → 66%
Turning point 3: Set 4 · Mercyhurst 8–7 New Haven
4 straight Mercyhurst points stretched an 8–7 lead to 12–7.
Mercyhurst 71% → 87%

New Haven above 50Mercyhurst belowMax swing 8.5%

MercyhurstNew Haven

Sideout %: Mercyhurst 67.1·New Haven 56.6
Break %: Mercyhurst 43.4·New Haven 32.9
Hitting: Mercyhurst .226·New Haven .057
Longest run: Mercyhurst 4·New Haven 5

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

New Haven above 50 · Mercyhurst below

Biggest swing: 8.5% to Mercyhurst — set 3, MERCYH 24-24 NEWHAV. Lauren MacKellar stuffed by Ava Carney & Madison Miner. NEWHAV win probability 27% → 19%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MERCYH 37.6%62.4% NEWHAV

Mercyhurst wins

3-0

8.0%

3-1

13.6%

3-2

16.0%

New Haven wins

3-0

18.5%

3-1

23.9%

3-2

20.0%

MERCYH break %: 44.1% vs this opp
NEWHAV break %: 46.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Ava Carney&Madison MinerBlock+8.5%
Lauren MacKellar stuffed by Ava Carney & Madison Miner
Set 3 · MERCYH 24-24 NEWHAV · MERCYH 73% → 81%
02
Josie FosterBlock+8.0%
Madison Miner stuffed by Josie Foster
Set 3 · MERCYH 25-27 NEWHAV · NEWHAV 26% → 34%
03
MercyhurstService error+7.3%
Mercyhurst service error
Set 3 · MERCYH 24-25 NEWHAV · NEWHAV 19% → 26%
04
Jordan NorthcuttAttack error+7.3%
Attack error by Jordan Northcutt
Set 3 · MERCYH 25-25 NEWHAV · MERCYH 74% → 81%
05
Jordan NorthcuttKill+7.3%
Kill by Jordan Northcutt (set by Zaira Kearns)
Set 3 · MERCYH 25-26 NEWHAV · NEWHAV 19% → 26%
06
Roslyn GuerraAttack error+6.1%
Attack error by Roslyn Guerra
Set 3 · MERCYH 22-24 NEWHAV · NEWHAV 25% → 31%
07
Marley AlefaioKill+5.6%
Kill by Marley Alefaio (set by Zaira Kearns)
Set 3 · MERCYH 22-23 NEWHAV · NEWHAV 19% → 25%
08
Julia ShepherdKill+5.5%
Kill by Julia Shepherd (set by Alyssa Krause)
Set 3 · MERCYH 22-22 NEWHAV · MERCYH 75% → 81%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Mercyhurstaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Julia ShepherdOPP	4	13	3	22	.455	2	0	0	2	0	0	4	2	15
13Mia MattinglyMB	4	7	2	14	.357	0	1	2	2	0	2	5	4.5	12.5
8Madison MinerOH	4	9	5	31	.129	0	1	1	11	0	0	4	2	12
23Ava CarneyMB	4	6	1	13	.385	0	0	0	1	0	1	5	3.5	9.5
26Anna LoganDS	4	5	1	12	.333	0	1	7	7	0	0	0	0	6
21Alyssa KrauseDS	4	0	0	1	.000	25	2	3	15	0	0	0	0	2
1Roslyn GuerraOH	4	9	7	26	.077	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.5	9.5
9Payton MelinOPP	4	4	3	12	.083	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
11Kelsie Gaiter-DavisDS	4	0	0	2	.000	1	3	3	13	0	0	0	0	3
10Mya ComerS	4	0	0	4	.000	18	2	3	6	0	0	0	0	2
22Sydney ForchtL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0
12Trinity TatupuOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		53	22	137	.226	49	10	19	64	2	3	20	13	100

New Havenhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
16Lauren MacKellarOH	4	13	7	45	.133	1	0	3	8	0	0	2	1	14
18Josie FosterMB	4	4	2	16	.125	1	1	1	1	0	1	4	3	8
20Marley AlefaioOH	4	7	13	44	-.136	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	7
21Kira LynchMB	4	4	2	10	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	5.5
14Zaira KearnsS	4	1	0	9	.111	31	0	0	10	0	0	3	1.5	2.5
1Alejandra MejiaL/DS	4	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	0	0
13Jordan NorthcuttOH	4	8	3	30	.167	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	1	9
8Camryn HarrisL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	7	1	0	0	0	0
19Mirella RedererL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	6	2	0	0	0	1
2Payton MalinoskiL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	1	0	0	5	5	0	0	0	0
3Lauren FickOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		37	28	157	.057	35	2	7	51	10	1	14	8	84

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Mercyhurst vs New Haven

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Thu, Oct 29, 2026Mercyhurst at New Haven · New Haven won 3-1Result →
Fri, Oct 30, 2026Mercyhurst at New Haven · Mercyhurst won 3-1This match

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 MERCYH · NEWHAV 5

Set 1

25-21

Longest run 3 MERCYHNEWHAV 3

Set 2

25-17

Longest run 4 MERCYHNEWHAV 3

Set 3

25-27

Longest run 4 MERCYHNEWHAV 5

Set 4

25-19

Longest run 4 MERCYHNEWHAV 2

Bars above the line = New Haven leads, below = Mercyhurst leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Mercyhurst

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%12/18	47%9/19
2	69%11/16	48%10/21
3	75%9/12	55%12/22
4	69%9/13	36%5/14
5	67%8/12	43%6/14
6	57%8/14	11%1/9
All	67%57/85	43%43/99

New Haven

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	55%11/20	38%6/16
2	59%10/17	42%8/19
3	43%10/23	29%4/14
4	64%9/14	18%2/11
5	80%8/10	40%6/15
6	53%8/15	20%2/10
All	57%56/99	33%28/85

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

184 rallies

#	MERCYH-NEWHAV	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Zaira Kearns	+1.7
2	1-1	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Kill	Anna Logan	set Sydney Forcht	+1.8
3	2-1	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Madison Miner	set Alyssa Krause	+2.2
4	2-2	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+1.8
5	2-3	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Ace	Mirella Rederer		+2.1
6	3-3	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+1.9
7	4-3	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+2.3
8	4-4	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Zaira Kearns	+1.9
9	5-4	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Serve err	New Haven		+2.1
10	5-5	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Blocked	Payton Melin	blk Josie Foster, Jordan Northcutt	+2.0
11	6-5	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Mya Comer	+2.1
12	6-6	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+2.0
13	7-6	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Mya Comer	+2.2
14	7-7	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+2.1
15	8-7	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Mya Comer	+2.2
16	9-7	MERCYH	MERCYH	Ace	Mercyhurst	aced Payton Malinoski	+2.7
17	9-8	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Attack err	Julia Shepherd		+2.1
18	10-8	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Alyssa Krause	+2.4
19	11-8	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+2.8
20	11-9	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+2.1
21	12-9	NEWHAV	MERCYH×3	Kill	Madison Miner	set Alyssa Krause	+2.5
22	13-9	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+2.7
23	14-9	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+2.5
24	14-10	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Attack err	Madison Miner		+1.7
25	15-10	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Serve err	New Haven		+2.1
26	15-11	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Kill	Josie Foster	set Zaira Kearns	+1.7
27	15-12	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Blocked	Madison Miner	blk Zaira Kearns, Josie Foster	+2.4
28	16-12	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Kill	Payton Melin	set Mya Comer	+2.5
29	17-12	MERCYH	MERCYH	Attack err	Marley Alefaio		+2.5
30	17-13	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Zaira Kearns	+1.6
31	18-13	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Attack err	Lauren MacKellar		+2.2
32	18-14	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Zaira Kearns	+1.6
33	18-15	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra		+2.4
34	19-15	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Kill	Payton Melin	set Mya Comer	+2.7
35	19-16	MERCYH	NEWHAV×3	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Zaira Kearns	+2.0
36	19-17	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Kill	Kira Lynch	set Camryn Harris	+3.0
37	19-18	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Kill	Jordan Northcutt	set Zaira Kearns	+3.7
38	20-18	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Julia Shepherd	+3.9
39	20-19	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Kill	Jordan Northcutt	set Lauren MacKellar	+3.3
40	21-19	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+4.2
41	22-19	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly		+4.4
42	22-20	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+2.6
43	23-20	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Blocked	Josie Foster	blk Mia Mattingly, Madison Miner	+4.0
44	23-21	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Kill	Josie Foster	set Zaira Kearns	+2.4
45	24-21	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Attack err	Marley Alefaio		+4.2
46	25-21	MERCYH	MERCYH	Ace	Mercyhurst	aced Payton Malinoski	+2.3
Set 2
1	1-0	NEWHAV	MERCYH×3	Kill	Anna Logan	set Alyssa Krause	+2.3
2	2-0	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Kill	Anna Logan	set Alyssa Krause	+2.8
3	3-0	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Blocked	Marley Alefaio	blk Ava Carney, Julia Shepherd	+2.8
4	3-1	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+2.2
5	4-1	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Attack err	Marley Alefaio		+2.4
6	5-1	MERCYH	MERCYH	Blocked	Marley Alefaio	blk Ava Carney, Julia Shepherd	+2.8
7	5-2	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+2.1
8	6-2	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+2.4
9	7-2	MERCYH	MERCYH	Blocked	Marley Alefaio	blk Mia Mattingly, Julia Shepherd	+2.7
10	7-3	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Zaira Kearns	+2.0
11	8-3	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Attack err	Lauren MacKellar		+2.4
12	9-3	MERCYH	MERCYH	Ace	Mercyhurst	aced Camryn Harris	+2.5
13	9-4	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Kill	Jordan Northcutt	set Camryn Harris	+1.7
14	9-5	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Kill	Jordan Northcutt	set Josie Foster	+2.4
15	10-5	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Kill	Madison Miner	set Mya Comer	+2.4
16	10-6	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Attack err	Payton Melin		+2.0
17	11-6	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Serve err	New Haven		+2.5
18	12-6	MERCYH	MERCYH	Ace	Mercyhurst		+2.5
19	12-7	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Kill	Jordan Northcutt	set Zaira Kearns	+1.7
20	13-7	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Attack err	Marley Alefaio		+2.2
21	13-8	MERCYH	NEWHAV×3	Kill	Kira Lynch	set Zaira Kearns	+1.7
22	13-9	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Kill	Zaira Kearns	set Madison Miner	+2.4
23	13-10	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Attack err	Julia Shepherd		+2.8
24	14-10	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Serve err	New Haven		+2.9
25	15-10	MERCYH	MERCYH	Ace	Mercyhurst	aced Alejandra Mejia	+3.0
26	15-11	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Serve err	Anna Logan		+2.0
27	15-12	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Bad set	Anna Logan		+2.9
28	16-12	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Blocked	Lauren MacKellar	blk Ava Carney	+3.1
29	16-13	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Kill	Josie Foster	set Zaira Kearns	+2.5
30	16-14	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Zaira Kearns	+3.5
31	17-14	NEWHAV	MERCYH×4	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+3.6
32	18-14	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Ace	Mercyhurst	aced Mirella Rederer	+3.8
33	19-14	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Blocked	Josie Foster	blk Mia Mattingly	+3.1
34	20-14	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Blocked	Lauren MacKellar	blk Madison Miner, Mia Mattingly	+2.3
35	20-15	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Zaira Kearns	+1.2
36	21-15	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Mya Comer	+1.8
37	21-16	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Zaira Kearns	+1.0
38	22-16	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Mya Comer	+1.7
39	22-17	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+0.8
40	23-17	NEWHAV	MERCYH×3	Kill	Ava Carney	set Mya Comer	+1.4
41	24-17	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Attack err	Marley Alefaio		+0.7
42	25-17	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Ace	Mercyhurst	aced Mirella Rederer	+0.1
Set 3
1	0-1	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+1.7
2	1-1	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Kill	Anna Logan	set Alyssa Krause	+1.8
3	1-2	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Kill	Jordan Northcutt	set Zaira Kearns	+1.7
4	1-3	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Zaira Kearns	+2.0
5	2-3	NEWHAV	MERCYH×3	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+1.7
6	3-3	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Attack err	Lauren MacKellar		+2.1
7	4-3	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Ace	Mercyhurst	aced Payton Malinoski	+2.3
8	4-4	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+1.9
9	5-4	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+2.0
10	6-4	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Mya Comer	+2.4
11	6-5	MERCYH	NEWHAV×3	Kill	Josie Foster	set Zaira Kearns	+1.9
12	6-6	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Attack err	Mia Mattingly		+2.3
13	6-7	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Attack err	Mia Mattingly		+2.3
14	7-7	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Kill	Madison Miner	set Mya Comer	+2.0
15	7-8	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Zaira Kearns	+2.0
16	7-9	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Ace	Josie Foster	aced Roslyn Guerra	+2.3
17	8-9	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Kill	Payton Melin	set Mya Comer	+1.9
18	9-9	MERCYH	MERCYH	Blocked	Marley Alefaio	blk Ava Carney, Payton Melin	+2.5
19	9-10	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Kill	Kira Lynch	set Zaira Kearns	+2.2
20	10-10	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Mya Comer	+2.2
21	10-11	MERCYH	NEWHAV×3	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Zaira Kearns	+2.2
22	10-12	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Payton Malinoski	+2.5
23	10-13	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×3	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Zaira Kearns	+2.3
24	11-13	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Attack err	Kira Lynch		+1.8
25	12-13	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Kelsie Gaiter-Davis	+2.5
26	12-14	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+2.3
27	13-14	NEWHAV	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Jordan Northcutt		+2.3
28	14-14	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Blocked	Lauren MacKellar	blk Madison Miner, Mia Mattingly	+3.0
29	15-14	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Ace	Mercyhurst	aced Payton Malinoski	+3.3
30	16-14	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Blocked	Jordan Northcutt	blk Julia Shepherd, Mia Mattingly	+3.4
31	16-15	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+2.7
32	17-15	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Kill	Madison Miner	set Julia Shepherd	+3.1
33	17-16	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+2.8
34	18-16	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Blocked	Marley Alefaio	blk Mia Mattingly	+3.3
35	18-17	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+2.9
36	19-17	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Mya Comer	+3.5
37	19-18	MERCYH	NEWHAV×5	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+3.1
38	19-19	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×5	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Zaira Kearns	+4.1
39	19-20	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×5	Attack err	Ava Carney		+4.4
40	19-21	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×5	Blocked	Roslyn Guerra	blk Kira Lynch, Lauren MacKellar	+4.1
41	19-22	NEWHAV	NEWHAV×5	Blocked	Roslyn Guerra	blk Kira Lynch, Lauren MacKellar	+3.4
42	20-22	NEWHAV	MERCYH×3	Attack err	Marley Alefaio		+2.1
43	21-22	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Alyssa Krause	+3.8
44	22-22	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+5.5
45	22-23	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Zaira Kearns	+5.6
46	22-24	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra		+6.1
47	23-24	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Kill	Anna Logan	set Sydney Forcht	+3.2
48	24-24	MERCYH	MERCYH	Blocked	Lauren MacKellar	blk Ava Carney, Madison Miner	+8.5
49	24-25	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+7.3
50	25-25	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Attack err	Jordan Northcutt		+7.3
51	25-26	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Kill	Jordan Northcutt	set Zaira Kearns	+7.3
52	25-27	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Blocked	Madison Miner	blk Josie Foster	+8.0
Set 4
1	0-1	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Zaira Kearns	+3.4
2	1-1	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Attack err	Alejandra Mejia		+3.0
3	1-2	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Attack err	Anna Logan		+2.9
4	2-2	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+3.0
5	3-2	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+3.7
6	3-3	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+3.1
7	4-3	NEWHAV	MERCYH×3	Kill	Madison Miner	set Alyssa Krause	+3.3
8	5-3	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Ace	Mercyhurst	aced Payton Malinoski	+4.0
9	6-3	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Camryn Harris	+4.0
10	6-4	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Kill	Jordan Northcutt	set Zaira Kearns	+3.1
11	7-4	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Alyssa Krause	+3.5
12	7-5	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+3.2
13	7-6	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Attack err	Mia Mattingly		+4.0
14	8-6	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Kill	Madison Miner	set Mya Comer	+3.7
15	8-7	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Zaira Kearns	+3.4
16	9-7	NEWHAV	MERCYH×4	Serve err	New Haven		+3.8
17	10-7	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Marley Alefaio		+4.4
18	11-7	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Mya Comer	+4.3
19	12-7	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Marley Alefaio		+3.9
20	12-8	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Kill	Kira Lynch	set Zaira Kearns	+2.7
21	13-8	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Kill	Payton Melin	set Mya Comer	+3.4
22	14-8	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Alyssa Krause	+3.4
23	14-9	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra		+2.2
24	15-9	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+3.0
25	15-10	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Attack err	Madison Miner		+2.2
26	15-11	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Blocked	Julia Shepherd	blk Jordan Northcutt, Josie Foster	+3.2
27	16-11	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Bad set	Jordan Northcutt		+3.5
28	17-11	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Madison Miner	set Alyssa Krause	+3.4
29	17-12	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Kill	Lauren MacKellar	set Zaira Kearns	+2.0
30	18-12	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Kill	Madison Miner	set Alyssa Krause	+2.9
31	18-13	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+1.9
32	18-14	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Blocked	Madison Miner	blk Josie Foster, Zaira Kearns	+3.0
33	19-14	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Serve err	New Haven		+3.6
34	19-15	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Kill	Marley Alefaio	set Zaira Kearns	+2.5
35	19-16	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Blocked	Roslyn Guerra	blk Kira Lynch, Zaira Kearns	+3.9
36	20-16	NEWHAV	MERCYH×3	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Mya Comer	+4.6
37	21-16	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Attack err	Kira Lynch		+4.1
38	22-16	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Bad set	Marley Alefaio		+2.6
39	22-17	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Attack err	Payton Melin		+1.1
40	23-17	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Sydney Forcht	+1.9
41	24-17	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+0.9
42	24-18	MERCYH	NEWHAV	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+0.2
43	24-19	NEWHAV	NEWHAV	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra		+0.4
44	25-19	NEWHAV	MERCYH	Serve err	New Haven		+0.7

Score shown after each rally, Mercyhurst first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Mercyhurst def. New Haven 3–1

The upset: Mercyhurst, a 33% pick, over New Haven.