Final · 5 setsThu, Nov 5, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Mercer def. Chattanooga 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Mercer 57.3% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Nov 5, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Mercer won at Chattanooga 3-2 (25-19, 21-25, 25-13, 23-25, 15-5) on Thu, Nov 5, 2026. Mercer's Avery Wilks and Joselynn Sanjurjo led with 13 kills each, and Aubri Martin added 20 digs.

Data through · final Nov 5

Set12345Sets
MERCER25212523153
CHAT1925132552

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Sammi Bergjans served 5 aces, and Mercer needed every one.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows Mercer's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. RallyIQ gave Mercer 57% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 4 · Mercer 18–17 Chattanooga

    Chattanooga scored 4 straight to turn a 17–18 deficit into a 21–18 lead.

    Mercer 83% → 61%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Mercer 1–2 Chattanooga

    5 straight Mercer points turned a 1–2 deficit into a 6–2 lead. The match swung to Mercer.

    Mercer 45% → 84%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Mercer 7–4 Chattanooga

    Up 7–4, Mercer scored 5 straight to make it 12–4.

    Mercer 81% → 99%

Chattanooga above 50Mercer belowMax swing 13.6%

MercerChattanooga

Sideout %
Mercer 58.6·Chattanooga 46.8
Break %
Mercer 53.2·Chattanooga 41.4
Hitting
Mercer .269·Chattanooga .113
Longest run
Mercer 8·Chattanooga 4

Lara Matta
3 kills inside the turning points, 12 K and .345 for the match (14 points).

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Chattanooga above 50 · Mercer below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+13.6% CHATrally 196 · set 5

Biggest swing: 13.6% to Chattanooga — set 4, MERCER 23-25 CHAT. Kill by Delaney Wingenbach (set by Mallory Merz). CHAT win probability 34% → 48%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MERCER 63.5%36.5% CHAT

Mercer wins

3-0
19.1%
3-1
24.3%
3-2
20.0%

Chattanooga wins

3-0
7.6%
3-1
13.1%
3-2
15.7%
MERCER break %
45.9% vs this opp
CHAT break %
43.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Kill by Delaney Wingenbach (set by Mallory Merz)

    Set 4 · MERCER 23-25 CHAT · CHAT 34% → 48%

  2. 02

    Kill by Delaney Wingenbach (set by Ashley Reynolds)

    Set 4 · MERCER 23-24 CHAT · CHAT 24% → 34%

  3. 03

    Kill by Joselynn Sanjurjo (set by Sammi Bergjans)

    Set 4 · MERCER 23-23 CHAT · MERCER 67% → 76%

  4. 04
    Sarah FragerAce+8.8%

    Ace by Sarah Frager on Caroline Peterson

    Set 5 · MERCER 3-2 CHAT · MERCER 52% → 61%

  5. 05

    Ace by Kynli Kirkendoll on Taylor Timko

    Set 5 · MERCER 1-2 CHAT · CHAT 46% → 55%

  6. 06

    Elena Vukmanov stuffed by Avery Wilks & Jasmine Calton

    Set 5 · MERCER 4-2 CHAT · MERCER 61% → 70%

  7. 07

    Elena Vukmanov stuffed by Jasmine Calton & Avery Wilks

    Set 5 · MERCER 1-0 CHAT · MERCER 52% → 61%

  8. 08
    Ashley ReynoldsBad set+7.9%

    Bad set by Ashley Reynolds

    Set 5 · MERCER 5-2 CHAT · MERCER 70% → 77%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Merceraway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
513229.37900110355.518.5
512229.34501114202114
513223.4780001000013
55312.167505611000010
5000–0311030003
49320.300000210009
512937.08100021010.512.5
51011.0004232000003
4001.000000700000
2024-.500000200211
2000–002000000
Team totals6523156.2695411147073108109
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
513640.1750013300013
57325.1600425212213
55221.143100002449
5026-.3332310600212
4000–001910000
37522.09101110010.58.5
5000–3111900001
4319.22200000010.53.5
4349-.111000100003
41011.000110020010.51.5
33216.06310060010.53.5
2000–000410000
2000–000420000
1001.000000000000
Team totals4225150.11339766011312987

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Mercer vs Chattanooga

Season series · Mercer leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 8 MERCER · CHAT 4

Set 1

25-19

Longest run 8 MERCERCHAT 3

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 6 MERCERCHAT 4

Set 3

25-13

Longest run 7 MERCERCHAT 4

Set 4

23-25

Longest run 3 MERCERCHAT 4

Set 5

15-5

Longest run 5 MERCERCHAT 2

Bars above the line = Chattanooga leads, below = Mercer leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Mercer

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%8/16
59%10/17
2
62%8/13
58%11/19
3
54%7/13
36%4/11
4
88%7/8
42%5/12
5
83%5/6
71%12/17
6
67%4/6
58%7/12
All
63%39/62
56%49/88

Chattanooga

SlotSideout %Break %
1
44%8/18
29%2/7
2
38%8/21
47%7/15
3
78%7/9
47%7/15
4
54%7/13
30%3/10
5
26%5/19
13%1/8
6
50%4/8
43%3/7
All
44%39/88
37%23/62

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

196 rallies

#MERCER-CHATSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0MERCERMERCERAttack errDelaney Wingenbach+2.3
21-1MERCERCHATServe errAvery Wilks+1.9
31-2CHATCHATBlockedSammi Bergjansblk Kynli Kirkendoll, Ashley Reynolds+2.4
42-2CHATMERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+1.9
53-2MERCERMERCERKillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+2.4
63-3MERCERCHATKillKynli Kirkendollset Ashley Reynolds+2.0
73-4CHATCHATAceKynli Kirkendollaced Sarah Frager+2.5
84-4CHATMERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+2.0
95-4MERCERMERCERAttack errGracie Rose+2.5
105-5MERCERCHATAttack errSammi Bergjans+2.1
116-5CHATMERCERKillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+2.1
127-5MERCERMERCERKillAvery Wilksset Sammi Bergjans+2.5
137-6MERCERCHATServe errAubri Martin+2.0
147-7CHATCHATAttack errTaylor Timko+2.7
158-7CHATMERCER×8KillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+2.2
169-7MERCERMERCER×8AceMerceraced Kynli Kirkendoll+2.7
1710-7MERCERMERCER×8KillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+2.5
1811-7MERCERMERCER×8AceMerceraced Delaney Wingenbach+2.3
1912-7MERCERMERCER×8KillAvery Wilksset Sammi Bergjans+2.0
2013-7MERCERMERCER×8BlockedSophia Garridoblk Avery Wilks, Taylor Timko+1.6
2114-7MERCERMERCER×8AceMercer+1.3
2215-7MERCERMERCER×8KillBrooklyn Palmer+0.9
2315-8MERCERCHATKillDelaney Wingenbachset Ashley Reynolds+0.5
2415-9CHATCHATKillSophia Garridoset Ashley Reynolds+0.9
2516-9CHATMERCERKillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+1.0
2617-9MERCERMERCERBlockedKynli Kirkendollblk Avery Wilks+0.8
2717-10MERCERCHATKillDelaney Wingenbachset Ashley Reynolds+0.4
2818-10CHATMERCERKillAvery Wilksset Sammi Bergjans+0.6
2919-10MERCERMERCERAttack errJordin Glass+0.5
3019-11MERCERCHATKillDelaney Wingenbachset Ashley Reynolds+0.2
3119-12CHATCHATKillGracie Roseset Ashley Reynolds+0.4
3220-12CHATMERCERKillBrooklyn Palmerset Aubri Martin+0.5
3321-12MERCERMERCERAttack errGracie Rose+0.3
3421-13MERCERCHAT×3KillGracie Roseset Ashley Reynolds+0.1
3521-14CHATCHAT×3Attack errBrooklyn Palmer+0.2
3621-15CHATCHAT×3Attack errLara Matta+0.4
3722-15CHATMERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+0.6
3823-15MERCERMERCERKillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+0.3
3923-16MERCERCHAT×3KillGracie Roseset Ashley Reynolds+0.1
4023-17CHATCHAT×3BlockedJoselynn Sanjurjoblk Jordin Glass, Gracie Rose+0.2
4123-18CHATCHAT×3BlockedTaylor Timkoblk Jordin Glass+0.4
4224-18CHATMERCERKillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+0.6
4324-19MERCERCHATServe errAubri Martin+0.1
4425-19CHATMERCERKillSammi Bergjans+0.3
Set 2
10-1CHATCHATAceCaiti Barthelaced Brooklyn Palmer+2.2
21-1CHATMERCERKillSammi Bergjans+1.8
31-2MERCERCHATServe errSammi Bergjans+1.8
42-2CHATMERCERKillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+1.8
53-2MERCERMERCERKillLara Mattaset Aubri Martin+2.2
63-3MERCERCHATKillGracie Roseset Ashley Reynolds+1.8
74-3CHATMERCERKillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+1.9
84-4MERCERCHATKillSophia Garridoset Mallory Merz+1.9
95-4CHATMERCERKillSammi Bergjans+1.9
106-4MERCERMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+2.3
116-5MERCERCHATKillDelaney Wingenbachset Mallory Merz+1.8
127-5CHATMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+1.9
137-6MERCERCHAT×3Serve errLara Matta+1.9
147-7CHATCHAT×3KillDelaney Wingenbachset Caiti Barthel+2.5
157-8CHATCHAT×3Bad setSammi Bergjans+2.6
168-8CHATMERCERServe errChattanooga+2.1
178-9MERCERCHATKillKynli Kirkendollset Ashley Reynolds+2.2
188-10CHATCHATKillGracie Rose+2.7
199-10CHATMERCER×6Serve errChattanooga+2.1
2010-10MERCERMERCER×6KillAvery Wilks+2.7
2111-10MERCERMERCER×6KillAvery Wilks+2.8
2212-10MERCERMERCER×6Attack errGracie Rose+2.7
2313-10MERCERMERCER×6KillTaylor Timkoset Aubri Martin+2.6
2414-10MERCERMERCER×6KillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+2.3
2514-11MERCERCHAT×4Serve errSammi Bergjans+1.6
2614-12CHATCHAT×4BlockedTaylor Timkoblk Jordin Glass, Mallory Merz+2.4
2714-13CHATCHAT×4AceKynli Kirkendollaced Lara Matta+2.8
2814-14CHATCHAT×4Attack errAvery Wilks+3.2
2915-14CHATMERCERServe errChattanooga+2.7
3016-14MERCERMERCERAttack errGracie Rose+3.2
3116-15MERCERCHATKillJordin Glassset Mallory Merz+2.5
3216-16CHATCHATKillBailey Burgessset Jordin Glass+3.5
3317-16CHATMERCERAttack errGracie Rose+3.0
3417-17MERCERCHAT×3BlockedJoselynn Sanjurjoblk Jordin Glass+3.0
3517-18CHATCHAT×3AceGracie Roseaced Sarah Frager+4.0
3617-19CHATCHAT×3Attack errBrooklyn Palmer+4.1
3718-19CHATMERCERKillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+2.9
3818-20MERCERCHATKillJordin Glassset Mallory Merz+3.6
3918-21CHATCHATAttack errTaylor Timko+3.9
4019-21MERCER
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.4
4119-22MERCERCHATAttack errTaylor Timko+3.4
4219-23CHATCHATKillKynli Kirkendollset Ashley Reynolds+2.9
4320-23CHATMERCERKillSammi Bergjansset Ashley Reynolds+1.2
4421-23MERCER
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.6
4521-24MERCERCHATKillDelaney Wingenbachset Ashley Reynolds+3.7
4621-25CHATCHATKillKynli Kirkendollset Ashley Reynolds+2.0
Set 3
11-0MERCERMERCER×7BlockedAshley Reynoldsblk Avery Wilks+3.1
22-0MERCERMERCER×7Attack errDelaney Wingenbach+3.0
33-0MERCERMERCER×7AceSammi Bergjansaced Delaney Wingenbach+2.9
44-0MERCERMERCER×7Attack errDelaney Wingenbach+2.7
55-0MERCERMERCER×7Attack errKynli Kirkendoll+2.4
66-0MERCERMERCER×7KillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+2.1
77-0MERCERMERCER×7AceSammi Bergjansaced Delaney Wingenbach+1.8
87-1MERCERCHAT×4Serve errSammi Bergjans+1.2
97-2CHATCHAT×4Attack errJasmine Calton+1.8
107-3CHATCHAT×4BlockedTaylor Timkoblk Kynli Kirkendoll, Ashley Reynolds+2.2
117-4CHATCHAT×4KillGracie Roseset Ashley Reynolds+2.6
128-4CHATMERCER×5KillAvery Wilksset Sammi Bergjans+2.4
139-4MERCERMERCER×5KillAubri Martinset Sammi Bergjans+2.6
1410-4MERCERMERCER×5AceMerceraced Finley Hilliard+2.2
1511-4MERCERMERCER×5AceMerceraced Ryan Oden+1.8
1612-4MERCERMERCER×5KillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+1.4
1712-5MERCERCHATKillKynli Kirkendollset Ashley Reynolds+0.8
1813-5CHATMERCERAttack errAshley Reynolds+1.1
1913-6MERCERCHATServe errBrooke Kaoui+0.8
2013-7CHATCHATKillGracie Roseset Caiti Barthel+1.3
2114-7CHATMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+1.4
2214-8MERCERCHATKillJordin Glassset Mallory Merz+1.0
2315-8CHATMERCER×3Serve errChattanooga+1.4
2416-8MERCERMERCER×3KillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+1.2
2517-8MERCERMERCER×3AceMerceraced Kynli Kirkendoll+0.8
2617-9MERCERCHATKillBailey Burgessset Mallory Merz+0.4
2718-9CHATMERCER×4KillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+0.6
2819-9MERCERMERCER×4KillAvery Wilksset Sammi Bergjans+0.4
2920-9MERCERMERCER×4AceMerceraced Ryan Oden+0.2
3021-9MERCERMERCER×4KillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+0.1
3121-10MERCERCHATKillKynli Kirkendollset Mallory Merz·
3222-10CHATMERCERKillAvery Wilksset Sammi Bergjans·
3322-11MERCERCHATKillDelaney Wingenbachset Ashley Reynolds·
3423-11CHATMERCERBad setKynli Kirkendoll·
3524-11MERCERMERCERKillAvery Wilksset Sammi Bergjans·
3624-12MERCERCHATKillElena Vukmanovset Ashley Reynolds·
3724-13CHATCHATBlockedJasmine Caltonblk Elena Vukmanov, Jordin Glass·
3825-13CHATMERCERKillAvery Wilksset Sammi Bergjans·
Set 4
10-1CHATCHATAttack errTaylor Timko+3.0
21-1CHATMERCERKillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+2.4
31-2MERCERCHATServe errSammi Bergjans+2.5
42-2CHATMERCERKillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+2.5
52-3MERCERCHATKillElena Vukmanovset Ashley Reynolds+2.6
63-3CHATMERCERKillAvery Wilksset Sammi Bergjans+2.5
73-4MERCERCHATKillJordin Glassset Ashley Reynolds+2.6
84-4CHATMERCERKillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+2.6
94-5MERCERCHATKillDelaney Wingenbachset Ashley Reynolds+2.7
105-5CHATMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+2.6
115-6MERCERCHATAttack errTaylor Timko+2.7
126-6CHATMERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+2.7
136-7MERCERCHATServe errAubri Martin+2.8
146-8CHATCHATAttack errSammi Bergjans+3.5
157-8CHATMERCERServe errChattanooga+2.7
167-9MERCERCHATServe errSammi Bergjans+2.9
178-9CHATMERCERKillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+2.8
189-9MERCERMERCERKillAvery Wilksset Sammi Bergjans+3.6
199-10MERCERCHATKillJordin Glassset Mallory Merz+3.1
2010-10CHATMERCERBlockedDelaney Wingenbachblk Avery Wilks+3.0
2110-11MERCERCHATServe errBrooke Kaoui+3.2
2211-11CHATMERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+3.1
2312-11MERCERMERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+3.9
2412-12MERCERCHATKillBailey Burgessset Ashley Reynolds+3.2
2513-12CHATMERCERAttack errDelaney Wingenbach+3.3
2614-12MERCERMERCERAttack errKynli Kirkendoll+4.0
2714-13MERCERCHATAttack errTaylor Timko+3.1
2814-14CHATCHATKillDelaney Wingenbach+4.3
2915-14CHATMERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+3.6
3015-15MERCERCHATKillKynli Kirkendollset Mallory Merz+3.7
3116-15CHATMERCERKillAvery Wilksset Sammi Bergjans+3.8
3216-16MERCERCHATServe errSammi Bergjans+3.9
3316-17CHATCHATAceKynli Kirkendollaced Lara Matta+5.1
3417-17CHATMERCERServe errChattanooga+4.1
3518-17MERCERMERCERBlockedSophia Garridoblk Avery Wilks, Lara Matta+5.3
3618-18MERCERCHAT×4KillSophia Garridoset Mallory Merz+4.4
3718-19CHATCHAT×4BlockedLara Mattablk Jordin Glass, Bailey Burgess+5.9
3818-20CHATCHAT×4Attack errBrooklyn Palmer+5.9
3918-21CHATCHAT×4AceAshley Reynoldsaced Sarah Frager+5.3
4019-21CHATMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+3.2
4119-22MERCERCHATKillElena Vukmanovset Ashley Reynolds+4.6
4220-22CHATMERCERAttack errBailey Burgess+3.1
4320-23MERCERCHATKillDelaney Wingenbachset Elena Vukmanov+4.8
4421-23CHATMERCER×3KillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+2.9
4522-23MERCERMERCER×3KillSammi Bergjans+6.0
4623-23MERCERMERCER×3KillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+9.3
4723-24MERCERCHATKillDelaney Wingenbachset Ashley Reynolds+10.2
4823-25CHATCHATKillDelaney Wingenbachset Mallory Merz+13.6
Set 5
11-0MERCERMERCERBlockedElena Vukmanovblk Jasmine Calton, Avery Wilks+8.1
21-1MERCERCHATBlockedAvery Wilksblk Kynli Kirkendoll+6.7
31-2CHATCHATAceKynli Kirkendollaced Taylor Timko+8.6
42-2CHATMERCER×5KillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+6.9
53-2MERCERMERCER×5AceSarah Frageraced Caroline Peterson+8.8
64-2MERCERMERCER×5BlockedElena Vukmanovblk Avery Wilks, Jasmine Calton+8.6
75-2MERCERMERCER×5Bad setAshley Reynolds+7.9
86-2MERCERMERCER×5KillLara Mattaset Aubri Martin+6.9
96-3MERCERCHATServe errSarah Frager+4.7
107-3CHATMERCERBlockedSophia Garridoblk Avery Wilks, Lara Matta+5.8
117-4MERCERCHATKillMallory Merz+4.7
128-4CHATMERCER×5Attack errSophia Garrido+5.9
139-4MERCERMERCER×5KillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+5.6
1410-4MERCERMERCER×5Attack errDelaney Wingenbach+3.8
1511-4MERCERMERCER×5Attack errJordin Glass+2.3
1612-4MERCERMERCER×5KillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+1.1
1712-5MERCERCHATKillDelaney Wingenbachset Caiti Barthel+0.4
1813-5CHATMERCER×3KillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+0.7
1914-5MERCERMERCER×3KillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+0.2
2015-5MERCERMERCER×3KillJoselynn Sanjurjo·

Score shown after each rally, Mercer first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).