Tarleton State vs Eastern Ky.: Eastern Ky. Wins 3-0 (Oct 1)

FinalThu, Oct 1, 2026ESPN+

0:3

RallyIQ pre-match: Eastern Ky. 89.2% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 1, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Eastern Ky. beat visiting Tarleton St. 3-0 (25-19, 25-19, 25-17) on Thu, Oct 1, 2026. Eastern Ky.'s Emma Closurdo led with 16 kills.

Data through Nov 3, 4:50 PM CT · final Oct 1

Set	1	2	3	Sets
TARLET	19	19	17	0
E KY	25	25	25	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Emma Closurdo hit .583 with 16 kills as Eastern Ky. rolled past Tarleton St.

The biggest single-rally swing was 1.1 points, and Tarleton St.'s high was 10% in Set 1. The gap came from these numbers. Eastern Ky. went in as RallyIQ's 89% pick.

Tarleton St.Eastern Ky.

Break %+18.1 pts
29.847.9
Points won on own serve: 35 of 73 vs 17 of 57. Tarleton St. sided out 52.1% of the time.
Hitting+.128
.158.286
50 K / 16 E against 32 K / 14 E.
Longest run+3
36
6 straight Eastern Ky. points in the third set stretched a 7–6 lead to 13–6. The set finished 25–17.

Eastern Ky. above 50Tarleton St. belowMax swing 1.1%

Tarleton St.Eastern Ky.

Aces: Tarleton St. 4·Eastern Ky. 6
Serve err: Tarleton St. 5·Eastern Ky. 3
Blocks: Tarleton St. 5·Eastern Ky. 51 BS · 8 BA vs 1 BS · 8 BA
Digs: Tarleton St. 45·Eastern Ky. 58

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Eastern Ky. above 50 · Tarleton St. below

Biggest swing: 1.1% to Tarleton St. — set 2, TARLET 11-11 E KY. Attack error by Emma Closurdo. E KY win probability 95% → 94%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

TARLET 4.9%95.1% E KY

Tarleton St. wins

3-0

0.6%

3-1

1.4%

3-2

3.0%

Eastern Ky. wins

3-0

55.7%

3-1

29.6%

3-2

9.8%

TARLET break %: 37.0% vs this opp
E KY break %: 49.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Emma ClosurdoAttack error+1.1%
Attack error by Emma Closurdo
Set 2 · TARLET 11-11 E KY · TARLET 5% → 6%
02
Madison Natori Rice-LocketAttack error+0.9%
Attack error by Madison Natori Rice-Locket
Set 2 · TARLET 11-13 E KY · E KY 95% → 96%
03
Eastern Ky.Ace+0.9%
Eastern Ky. ace on LaNeah Lara
Set 1 · TARLET 0-2 E KY · E KY 90% → 91%
04
Alexis BullAttack error+0.8%
Attack error by Alexis Bull
Set 2 · TARLET 9-10 E KY · TARLET 4% → 5%
05
Emma ClosurdoKill+0.8%
Kill by Emma Closurdo (set by Cassidy Trahan)
Set 2 · TARLET 12-15 E KY · E KY 96% → 96%
06
Audrey HudsonKill+0.8%
Kill by Audrey Hudson (set by Emilee Hill)
Set 2 · TARLET 11-12 E KY · E KY 94% → 95%
07
Alexis BullKill+0.8%
Kill by Alexis Bull (set by Emilee Hill)
Set 1 · TARLET 0-3 E KY · E KY 91% → 92%
08
Alexis BullKill+0.8%
Kill by Alexis Bull (set by Emilee Hill)
Set 1 · TARLET 0-1 E KY · E KY 89% → 90%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Tarleton St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Onita DavisMB	3	9	3	25	.240	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	10
3LaNeah LaraOH	3	6	2	25	.160	2	0	0	3	1	0	1	0.5	6.5
23Alyssa DinhMB	3	2	3	15	-.067	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	3.5
18Peyton FadalS	3	1	0	2	.500	16	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	1
4Breannah PetersonOPP	2	1	4	9	-.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
14Jacqui McClainOH	1	1	1	8	.000	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	1
21Madison Natori Rice-LocketOH	3	8	1	16	.438	0	0	1	3	2	1	0	1	9
9Madison FrankMB	3	4	0	11	.364	0	0	1	3	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
19Alexa EarleL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	2	1	10	1	0	0	0	2
8Leddy Rae GuinnDS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	11	1	0	0	0	0
5Alexis MasseyS	2	0	0	0	–	8	2	1	3	0	0	0	0	2
7Taylynn BiggsMB	2	0	0	3	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
13Kingsley MinusS	1	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		32	14	114	.158	32	4	5	45	6	1	8	5	55

Eastern Ky.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
22Emma ClosurdoOH	3	16	2	24	.583	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	16
11Audrey HudsonOH	3	10	4	32	.188	0	1	1	10	1	0	1	0.5	11.5
21Addison BurkeOH	3	8	4	21	.190	0	1	1	13	0	0	2	1	10
13Alexis BullMB	3	8	1	12	.583	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	10
12Caitlyn FleesMB	3	6	0	10	.600	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	7
7Emilee HillS	3	2	5	20	-.150	27	3	0	8	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
6Cassidy TrahanDS	3	0	0	0	–	6	1	0	13	2	0	0	0	1
10Cooper AbneyS	3	0	0	0	–	15	0	1	8	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		50	16	119	.286	48	6	3	58	4	1	8	5	75

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Tarleton St. vs Eastern Ky.

Season series · Eastern Ky. leads 1-0

Thu, Oct 1, 2026Tarleton St. at Eastern Ky. · Eastern Ky. won 3-0This match
Thu, Nov 12, 2026Eastern Ky. at Tarleton St.Preview →

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 3 TARLET · E KY 6

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 3 TARLETE KY 5

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 3 TARLETE KY 3

Set 3

17-25

Longest run 3 TARLETE KY 6

Bars above the line = Eastern Ky. leads, below = Tarleton St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Tarleton St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	57%8/14	38%5/13
2	50%6/12	43%6/14
3	60%6/10	0%0/6
4	46%6/13	25%2/8
5	75%6/8	0%0/6
6	38%6/16	40%4/10
All	52%38/73	30%17/57

Eastern Ky.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	73%8/11	67%12/18
2	62%8/13	47%7/15
3	100%6/6	50%6/12
4	75%6/8	45%5/11
5	67%6/9	40%4/10
6	60%6/10	14%1/7
All	70%40/57	48%35/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

130 rallies

#	TARLET-E KY	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	TARLET	E KY×5	Kill	Alexis Bull	set Emilee Hill	+0.8
2	0-2	E KY	E KY×5	Ace	Eastern Ky.	aced LaNeah Lara	+0.9
3	0-3	E KY	E KY×5	Kill	Alexis Bull	set Emilee Hill	+0.8
4	0-4	E KY	E KY×5	Attack err	Alyssa Dinh		+0.7
5	0-5	E KY	E KY×5	Kill	Emma Closurdo	set Emilee Hill	+0.6
6	1-5	E KY	TARLET	Kill	Jacqui McClain	set LaNeah Lara	+0.4
7	2-5	TARLET	TARLET	Blocked	Addison Burke	blk Breannah Peterson, Alyssa Dinh	+0.7
8	2-6	TARLET	E KY	Kill	Emma Closurdo	set Emilee Hill	+0.6
9	3-6	E KY	TARLET	Kill	Breannah Peterson	set Peyton Fadal	+0.6
10	3-7	TARLET	E KY	Kill	Emma Closurdo	set Emilee Hill	+0.6
11	4-7	E KY	TARLET	Kill	Madison Frank	set Peyton Fadal	+0.6
12	4-8	TARLET	E KY	Attack err	LaNeah Lara		+0.6
13	5-8	E KY	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Alexis Massey	+0.6
14	5-9	TARLET	E KY	Kill	Caitlyn Flees	set Cooper Abney	+0.6
15	5-10	E KY	E KY	Blocked	Onita Davis	blk Audrey Hudson, Alexis Bull	+0.6
16	6-10	E KY	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Alexis Massey	+0.5
17	6-11	TARLET	E KY	Kill	Alexis Bull	set Cooper Abney	+0.5
18	6-12	E KY	E KY	Ace	Eastern Ky.		+0.5
19	7-12	E KY	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Alexis Massey	+0.3
20	7-13	TARLET	E KY	Kill	Alexis Bull	set Emilee Hill	+0.4
21	8-13	E KY	TARLET	Kill	Alyssa Dinh	set Peyton Fadal	+0.3
22	8-14	TARLET	E KY×3	Serve err	Tarleton St.		+0.4
23	8-15	E KY	E KY×3	Ace	Eastern Ky.	aced Leddy Rae Guinn	+0.3
24	8-16	E KY	E KY×3	Kill	Emma Closurdo	set Emilee Hill	+0.2
25	9-16	E KY	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Leddy Rae Guinn	+0.1
26	9-17	TARLET	E KY	Kill	Addison Burke	set Emilee Hill	+0.2
27	9-18	E KY	E KY	Blocked	Breannah Peterson	blk Caitlyn Flees, Addison Burke	+0.1
28	10-18	E KY	TARLET×3	Blocked	Emilee Hill	blk Madison Frank, LaNeah Lara	+0.1
29	11-18	TARLET	TARLET×3	Ace	Tarleton St.	aced Audrey Hudson	+0.1
30	12-18	TARLET	TARLET×3	Ace	Tarleton St.		+0.2
31	12-19	TARLET	E KY	Kill	Addison Burke	set Cassidy Trahan	+0.2
32	13-19	E KY	TARLET	Attack err	Emilee Hill		+0.1
33	13-20	TARLET	E KY	Kill	Audrey Hudson	set Cooper Abney	+0.2
34	14-20	E KY	TARLET	Kill	Madison Frank	set Alexis Massey	+0.1
35	14-21	TARLET	E KY×3	Blocked	Jacqui McClain	blk Alexis Bull, Emilee Hill	+0.2
36	14-22	E KY	E KY×3	Kill	Emma Closurdo	set Emilee Hill	+0.1
37	14-23	E KY	E KY×3	Kill	Alexis Bull	set Emilee Hill	·
38	15-23	E KY	TARLET×3	Kill	Onita Davis	set Alexis Massey	·
39	16-23	TARLET	TARLET×3	Attack err	Audrey Hudson		·
40	17-23	TARLET	TARLET×3	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Peyton Fadal	·
41	17-24	TARLET	E KY	Kill	Emma Closurdo	set Emilee Hill	+0.1
42	18-24	E KY	TARLET	Serve err	Eastern Ky.		·
43	19-24	TARLET	TARLET	Attack err	Addison Burke		·
44	19-25	TARLET	E KY	Kill	Emma Closurdo	set Emilee Hill	+0.1
Set 2
1	1-0	E KY	TARLET	Kill	Peyton Fadal	set LaNeah Lara	+0.7
2	1-1	TARLET	E KY×3	Kill	Audrey Hudson	set Emilee Hill	+0.6
3	1-2	E KY	E KY×3	Attack err	Alyssa Dinh		+0.7
4	1-3	E KY	E KY×3	Attack err	Breannah Peterson		+0.7
5	2-3	E KY	TARLET	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Peyton Fadal	+0.5
6	2-4	TARLET	E KY	Attack err	Breannah Peterson		+0.5
7	2-5	E KY	E KY	Kill	Addison Burke	set Cassidy Trahan	+0.6
8	3-5	E KY	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Peyton Fadal	+0.5
9	3-6	TARLET	E KY×3	Kill	Addison Burke	set Emilee Hill	+0.5
10	3-7	E KY	E KY×3	Kill	Emilee Hill	set Cassidy Trahan	+0.5
11	3-8	E KY	E KY×3	Kill	Caitlyn Flees		+0.4
12	4-8	E KY	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Peyton Fadal	+0.3
13	4-9	TARLET	E KY	Kill	Emilee Hill	set Cooper Abney	+0.3
14	5-9	E KY	TARLET×3	Attack err	Audrey Hudson		+0.3
15	6-9	TARLET	TARLET×3	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Alexis Massey	+0.5
16	7-9	TARLET	TARLET×3	Ace	Tarleton St.	aced Cassidy Trahan	+0.6
17	7-10	TARLET	E KY	Kill	Caitlyn Flees	set Cooper Abney	+0.5
18	8-10	E KY	TARLET	Attack err	Audrey Hudson		+0.5
19	9-10	TARLET	TARLET	Attack err	Alexis Bull		+0.8
20	9-11	TARLET	E KY	Kill	Audrey Hudson	set Cooper Abney	+0.7
21	10-11	E KY	TARLET	Blocked	Emma Closurdo	blk Madison Natori Rice-Locket	+0.7
22	11-11	TARLET	TARLET	Attack err	Emma Closurdo		+1.1
23	11-12	TARLET	E KY	Kill	Audrey Hudson	set Emilee Hill	+0.8
24	11-13	E KY	E KY	Attack err	Madison Natori Rice-Locket		+0.9
25	12-13	E KY	TARLET	Kill	Alyssa Dinh	set Peyton Fadal	+0.8
26	12-14	TARLET	E KY×3	Kill	Addison Burke	set Emilee Hill	+0.8
27	12-15	E KY	E KY×3	Kill	Emma Closurdo	set Cassidy Trahan	+0.8
28	12-16	E KY	E KY×3	Kill	Addison Burke	set Emilee Hill	+0.7
29	13-16	E KY	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Peyton Fadal	+0.5
30	13-17	TARLET	E KY×3	Kill	Emma Closurdo	set Emilee Hill	+0.5
31	13-18	E KY	E KY×3	Kill	Addison Burke	set Cooper Abney	+0.5
32	13-19	E KY	E KY×3	Blocked	Breannah Peterson	blk Caitlyn Flees, Addison Burke	+0.3
33	14-19	E KY	TARLET	Attack err	Emilee Hill		+0.2
34	14-20	TARLET	E KY	Serve err	Tarleton St.		+0.2
35	14-21	E KY	E KY	Kill	Audrey Hudson	set Cooper Abney	+0.2
36	15-21	E KY	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Alexis Massey	+0.1
37	16-21	TARLET	TARLET	Ace	Tarleton St.	aced Cassidy Trahan	+0.2
38	16-22	TARLET	E KY	Serve err	Tarleton St.		+0.2
39	17-22	E KY	TARLET×3	Kill	Madison Frank	set Alexis Massey	+0.1
40	18-22	TARLET	TARLET×3	Blocked	Audrey Hudson	blk Onita Davis, Alyssa Dinh	+0.2
41	19-22	TARLET	TARLET×3	Attack err	Emilee Hill		+0.5
42	19-23	TARLET	E KY×3	Kill	Alexis Bull	set Cooper Abney	+0.5
43	19-24	E KY	E KY×3	Attack err	Onita Davis		+0.3
44	19-25	E KY	E KY×3	Attack err	Onita Davis		+0.1
Set 3
1	0-1	TARLET	E KY	Kill	Alexis Bull	set Emilee Hill	+0.3
2	1-1	E KY	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Peyton Fadal	+0.3
3	2-1	TARLET	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Peyton Fadal	+0.4
4	2-2	TARLET	E KY	Serve err	Tarleton St.		+0.3
5	2-3	E KY	E KY	Kill	Emma Closurdo	set Emilee Hill	+0.4
6	3-3	E KY	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Peyton Fadal	+0.3
7	3-4	TARLET	E KY	Kill	Addison Burke	set Emilee Hill	+0.3
8	4-4	E KY	TARLET	Serve err	Eastern Ky.		+0.3
9	4-5	TARLET	E KY	Attack err	LaNeah Lara		+0.3
10	4-6	E KY	E KY	Kill	Caitlyn Flees	set Cooper Abney	+0.3
11	5-6	E KY	TARLET	Attack err	Emilee Hill		+0.3
12	5-7	TARLET	E KY	Kill	Audrey Hudson	set Cooper Abney	+0.3
13	6-7	E KY	TARLET	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Kingsley Minus	+0.3
14	6-8	TARLET	E KY×6	Kill	Audrey Hudson	set Cooper Abney	+0.3
15	6-9	E KY	E KY×6	Kill	Emma Closurdo	set Emilee Hill	+0.3
16	6-10	E KY	E KY×6	Ace	Eastern Ky.	aced Madison Natori Rice-Locket	+0.3
17	6-11	E KY	E KY×6	Kill	Emma Closurdo	set Emilee Hill	+0.2
18	6-12	E KY	E KY×6	Kill	Emma Closurdo	set Cassidy Trahan	+0.2
19	6-13	E KY	E KY×6	Ace	Eastern Ky.	aced Alexa Earle	+0.1
20	7-13	E KY	TARLET	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Peyton Fadal	+0.1
21	7-14	TARLET	E KY	Kill	Audrey Hudson	set Emilee Hill	+0.1
22	8-14	E KY	TARLET×3	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Leddy Rae Guinn	+0.1
23	9-14	TARLET	TARLET×3	Blocked	Addison Burke	blk Alyssa Dinh, Onita Davis	+0.1
24	10-14	TARLET	TARLET×3	Attack err	Addison Burke		+0.2
25	10-15	TARLET	E KY	Blocked	Alyssa Dinh	blk Alexis Bull	+0.2
26	11-15	E KY	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Peyton Fadal	+0.2
27	11-16	TARLET	E KY	Kill	Emma Closurdo	set Emilee Hill	+0.2
28	12-16	E KY	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Peyton Fadal	+0.2
29	12-17	TARLET	E KY×3	Kill	Caitlyn Flees	set Cooper Abney	+0.2
30	12-18	E KY	E KY×3	Ace	Eastern Ky.	aced Madison Natori Rice-Locket	+0.2
31	12-19	E KY	E KY×3	Kill	Audrey Hudson	set Cooper Abney	+0.1
32	13-19	E KY	TARLET	Serve err	Eastern Ky.		·
33	13-20	TARLET	E KY	Kill	Caitlyn Flees	set Cooper Abney	+0.1
34	14-20	E KY	TARLET	Kill	Madison Frank	set Kingsley Minus	·
35	15-20	TARLET	TARLET	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Alexa Earle	+0.1
36	15-21	TARLET	E KY×3	Serve err	Tarleton St.		+0.1
37	15-22	E KY	E KY×3	Kill	Alexis Bull	set Emilee Hill	+0.1
38	15-23	E KY	E KY×3	Kill	Audrey Hudson	set Emilee Hill	·
39	16-23	E KY	TARLET	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Kingsley Minus	·
40	16-24	TARLET	E KY	Kill	Emma Closurdo	set Emilee Hill	·
41	17-24	E KY	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Peyton Fadal	·
42	17-25	TARLET	E KY	Kill	Emma Closurdo	set Cassidy Trahan	·

Score shown after each rally, Tarleton St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Eastern Ky. def. Tarleton St. 3–0

Emma Closurdo hit .583 with 16 kills as Eastern Ky. rolled past Tarleton St.