Final · 5 setsFri, Nov 6, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Iona def. Merrimack 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Iona 62.8% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Nov 6, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Iona won at Merrimack 3-2 (18-25, 25-20, 25-17, 13-25, 15-13) on Fri, Nov 6, 2026. Iona's Julia Leonardo led with 16 kills, and Avery Gaume added 18 digs.

Data through · final Nov 6

Set12345Sets
IONA18252513153
MERMCK25201725132

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Outhit .138 to .099, Iona won anyway.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are Iona's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. RallyIQ gave Iona 63% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 5 · Iona 1–0 Merrimack

    Down 0–1, Merrimack scored 4 straight to lead 4–1. The match swung to Merrimack.

    Iona 63% → 30%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Iona 8–9 Merrimack

    3 straight Iona points turned an 8–9 deficit into an 11–9 lead. The match swung to Iona.

    Iona 43% → 78%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Iona 13–11 Merrimack

    Iona closed it, 2 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 15–13 and win the match 3–2.

    Iona 84% → >99%

Merrimack above 50Iona belowMax swing 24.0%

IonaMerrimack

Sideout %
Iona 56.4·Merrimack 58.9
Break %
Iona 41.1·Merrimack 43.6
Hitting
Iona .099·Merrimack .138
Longest run
Iona 6·Merrimack 6

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Merrimack above 50 · Iona below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+24.0% IONArally 196 · set 5

Biggest swing: 24.0% to Iona — set 5, IONA 15-13 MERMCK. Kill by Emma Koceja (set by Grace Daniels). MERMCK win probability 24% → 0%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

IONA 62.2%37.8% MERMCK

Iona wins

3-0
18.4%
3-1
23.8%
3-2
20.0%

Merrimack wins

3-0
8.0%
3-1
13.7%
3-2
16.1%
IONA break %
47.3% vs this opp
MERMCK break %
44.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Emma KocejaKill+24.0%

    Kill by Emma Koceja (set by Grace Daniels)

    Set 5 · IONA 15-13 MERMCK · IONA 76% → 100%

  2. 02
    Mia IzzoAttack error+21.5%

    Attack error by Mia Izzo

    Set 5 · IONA 14-13 MERMCK · IONA 55% → 76%

  3. 03

    Kill by Mckenna Shotwell (set by Sophia DeBonis)

    Set 5 · IONA 13-13 MERMCK · MERMCK 26% → 45%

  4. 04
    Buse TinazKill+15.5%

    Kill by Buse Tinaz (set by Grace Daniels)

    Set 5 · IONA 13-11 MERMCK · IONA 68% → 84%

  5. 05

    Julia Leonardo stuffed by Maiella Blandin & Mia Izzo

    Set 5 · IONA 11-11 MERMCK · MERMCK 31% → 46%

  6. 06

    Maiella Blandin stuffed by Buse Tinaz & Julia Leonardo

    Set 5 · IONA 12-11 MERMCK · IONA 54% → 68%

  7. 07
    Mckenna ShotwellAttack error+12.9%

    Attack error by Mckenna Shotwell

    Set 5 · IONA 10-9 MERMCK · IONA 53% → 66%

  8. 08

    Mckenna Shotwell stuffed by Buse Tinaz & Katherine Ferng

    Set 5 · IONA 11-9 MERMCK · IONA 66% → 78%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Ionaaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
5161062.097000173010.516.5
510220.40020111014313
5101054.00002015000012
510535.14300070010.510.5
5003.0002511130010.51.5
2006.000000000000
56420.10000060132.58.5
5013-.3331001810000
5000–21001100000
5000–101100000
2227.00000030010.52.5
2102.50000010010.51.5
2000–000200000
Team totals5534212.09950331054212896
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
515448.22932223112219
54213.154012000849
56535.02900020031.57.5
54112.25000010031.55.5
5207.28624101500003
5001.0000001610000
512635.1710003014315
5003.0007003200000
5002.00021021100000
4000–102100000
311630.1670002000011
22213.000000000002
2000–000000000
12311-.091000000002
Team totals5829210.1385648106322012100

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Iona vs Merrimack

Season series · Iona leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 IONA · MERMCK 6

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 4 IONAMERMCK 4

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 4 IONAMERMCK 5

Set 3

25-17

Longest run 6 IONAMERMCK 3

Set 4

13-25

Longest run 4 IONAMERMCK 6

Set 5

15-13

Longest run 3 IONAMERMCK 4

Bars above the line = Merrimack leads, below = Iona leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Iona

SlotSideout %Break %
1
57%13/23
23%3/13
2
43%10/23
48%10/21
3
59%10/17
55%12/22
4
53%8/15
36%5/14
5
80%8/10
27%3/11
6
62%8/13
43%6/14
All
56%57/101
41%39/95

Merrimack

SlotSideout %Break %
1
71%12/17
35%6/17
2
38%10/26
56%14/25
3
64%9/14
29%4/14
4
69%9/13
53%10/19
5
73%8/11
38%5/13
6
57%8/14
38%5/13
All
59%56/95
44%44/101

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

196 rallies

#IONA-MERMCKSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0MERMCKIONAKillEmma Kocejaset Grace Daniels+1.8
21-1IONAMERMCK×3KillMckenna Shotwellset Sophia DeBonis+1.9
31-2MERMCKMERMCK×3KillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Ella Maldonado+2.3
41-3MERMCKMERMCK×3KillMia Izzoset Sophia DeBonis+2.4
52-3MERMCKIONA×4KillEmma Kocejaset Grace Daniels+1.9
63-3IONAIONA×4KillBuse Tinazset Sophia DeBonis+2.3
74-3IONAIONA×4KillKari Smithset Grace Daniels+2.3
85-3IONAIONA×4Attack errFabiola Betancourt+2.2
95-4IONAMERMCKBlockedKari Smithblk Mia Izzo, Naomi Vajda+1.9
106-4MERMCKIONAKillBuse Tinazset Grace Daniels+1.9
117-4IONAIONAAttack errNaomi Vajda+2.2
127-5IONAMERMCKKillNaomi Vajdaset Sophia DeBonis+1.8
137-6MERMCKMERMCKKillMaiella Blandinset Elizabeth Kenney+2.3
148-6MERMCKIONAKillKari Smithset Grace Daniels+2.1
159-6IONAIONAKillKatherine Ferngset Avery Gaume+2.3
169-7IONAMERMCKKillFabiola Betancourtset Elizabeth Kenney+1.8
179-8MERMCKMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Elizabeth Kenney+2.4
1810-8MERMCKIONAKillKari Smithset Jaylyn Simon+2.2
1910-9IONAMERMCKKillMaiella Blandinset Elizabeth Kenney+2.1
2011-9MERMCKIONAKillJulia Leonardoset Jaylyn Simon+2.3
2111-10IONAMERMCKKillMaiella Blandinset Elizabeth Kenney+2.2
2211-11MERMCKMERMCKKillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Ella Maldonado+2.9
2312-11MERMCKIONAKillJulia Leonardoset Jaylyn Simon+2.5
2412-12IONAMERMCK×4KillMckenna Shotwellset Sophia DeBonis+2.6
2512-13MERMCKMERMCK×4Attack errJulia Leonardo+3.2
2612-14MERMCKMERMCK×4AceMerrimackaced Julia Leonardo+3.3
2712-15MERMCKMERMCK×4BlockedJulia Leonardoblk Jocelyn Hammerstrand, Mia Izzo+3.2
2813-15MERMCKIONAAttack errJocelyn Hammerstrand+2.4
2913-16IONAMERMCKKillMia Izzoset Sophia DeBonis+2.8
3014-16MERMCKIONAKillKari Smithset Grace Daniels+2.4
3114-17IONAMERMCKKillFabiola Betancourtset Ella Maldonado+3.0
3215-17MERMCKIONAServe errMerrimack+2.5
3315-18IONAMERMCKAttack errKari Smith+3.1
3416-18MERMCKIONAKillJulia Leonardoset Jaylyn Simon+2.6
3516-19IONAMERMCK×4KillMckenna Shotwellset Elizabeth Kenney+3.2
3616-20MERMCKMERMCK×4BlockedKatherine Ferngblk Mckenna Shotwell, Mia Izzo+3.2
3716-21MERMCKMERMCK×4KillMaiella Blandinset Elizabeth Kenney+2.4
3816-22MERMCKMERMCK×4KillMaiella Blandinset Gabrielle Moore+1.5
3917-22MERMCKIONAServe errMerrimack+0.6
4017-23IONAMERMCKKillMia Izzoset Elizabeth Kenney+1.1
4117-24MERMCKMERMCKBlockedJulia Leonardoblk Mia Izzo, Jocelyn Hammerstrand+0.5
4218-24MERMCKIONAKillBuse Tinazset Jaylyn Simon+0.1
4318-25IONAMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Sophia DeBonis+0.2
Set 2
11-0IONAIONAKillJulia Leonardoset Jaylyn Simon+2.5
21-1IONAMERMCKKillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+2.2
32-1MERMCKIONAKillJulia Leonardoset Jaylyn Simon+2.2
42-2IONAMERMCKKillMia Izzoset Sophia DeBonis+2.2
53-2MERMCKIONAKillBuse Tinazset Jaylyn Simon+2.2
63-3IONAMERMCKKillNaomi Vajdaset Sophia DeBonis+2.3
74-3MERMCKIONAKillJulia Leonardoset Grace Daniels+2.3
84-4IONAMERMCKBlockedKari Smithblk Maiella Blandin, Naomi Vajda+2.3
95-4MERMCKIONAAttack errMckenna Shotwell+2.3
106-4IONAIONAKillKari Smithset Grace Daniels+2.6
116-5IONAMERMCKKillMaiella Blandinset Elizabeth Kenney+2.2
127-5MERMCKIONAKillJulia Leonardoset Grace Daniels+2.3
137-6IONAMERMCKBlockedKari Smithblk Mia Izzo, Maiella Blandin+2.3
148-6MERMCKIONAKillKatherine Ferngset Jaylyn Simon+2.4
158-7IONAMERMCKAttack errJulia Leonardo+2.4
169-7MERMCKIONA×4KillJulia Leonardoset Jaylyn Simon+2.4
1710-7IONAIONA×4KillJulia Leonardoset Jaylyn Simon+2.7
1811-7IONAIONA×4KillBuse Tinazset Sophia DeBonis+2.4
1912-7IONAIONA×4Attack errJocelyn Hammerstrand+2.1
2012-8IONAMERMCKServe errSanem Bas+1.5
2113-8MERMCKIONA×3BlockedFabiola Betancourtblk Katherine Ferng+1.8
2214-8IONAIONA×3KillJulia Leonardoset Grace Daniels+1.7
2315-8IONAIONA×3AceGrace Daniels+1.3
2415-9IONAMERMCK×3KillNaomi Vajdaset Sophia DeBonis+0.8
2515-10MERMCKMERMCK×3BlockedJulia Leonardoblk Maiella Blandin+1.3
2615-11MERMCKMERMCK×3KillTamilore Afolaluset Elizabeth Kenney+1.8
2716-11MERMCKIONA×3KillEmma Kocejaset Grace Daniels+1.9
2817-11IONAIONA×3BlockedTamilore Afolalublk Emma Koceja, Buse Tinaz+1.7
2918-11IONAIONA×3KillBuse Tinaz+1.2
3018-12IONAMERMCK×5KillTamilore Afolaluset Elizabeth Kenney+0.7
3118-13MERMCKMERMCK×5Attack errEmma Koceja+1.2
3218-14MERMCKMERMCK×5Attack errBuse Tinaz+1.7
3318-15MERMCKMERMCK×5KillMaiella Blandinset Elizabeth Kenney+2.3
3418-16MERMCKMERMCK×5Attack errKari Smith+3.1
3519-16MERMCKIONAKillKari Smithset Grace Daniels+3.1
3619-17IONAMERMCKKillMaiella Blandinset Elizabeth Kenney+2.7
3720-17MERMCKIONAAttack errMaiella Blandin+3.3
3821-17IONAIONAKillKatherine Ferngset Jaylyn Simon+3.0
3921-18IONAMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Elizabeth Kenney+1.8
4021-19MERMCKMERMCKAttack errKatherine Ferng+3.2
4122-19MERMCKIONAKillKari Smithset Jaylyn Simon+3.7
4222-20IONAMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Ella Maldonado+2.7
4323-20MERMCKIONA×3KillJulia Leonardoset Jaylyn Simon+3.9
4424-20IONAIONA×3Attack errJocelyn Hammerstrand+2.7
4525-20IONAIONA×3Attack errTamilore Afolalu+0.9
Set 3
11-0MERMCKIONAKillJulia Leonardoset Jaylyn Simon+2.5
22-0IONAIONAAceKari Smithaced Mckenna Shotwell+2.8
32-1IONAMERMCKKillSophia DeBonisset Ella Maldonado+2.4
42-2MERMCKMERMCKAceMerrimackaced Julia Leonardo+3.0
53-2MERMCKIONAAttack errVaia Tsioutsioulas+2.6
63-3IONAMERMCKAttack errJulia Leonardo+2.7
74-3MERMCKIONAKillJulia Leonardoset Jaylyn Simon+2.7
84-4IONAMERMCKKillVaia Tsioutsioulasset Mckenna Shotwell+2.7
95-4MERMCKIONAKillBuse Tinazset Grace Daniels+2.7
106-4IONAIONAAttack errMaiella Blandin+3.1
116-5IONAMERMCKAttack errEmma Koceja+2.6
127-5MERMCKIONAKillBuse Tinazset Grace Daniels+2.7
137-6IONAMERMCKServe errBuse Tinaz+2.7
148-6MERMCKIONAServe errGabrielle Moore+2.8
158-7IONAMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Elizabeth Kenney+2.8
169-7MERMCKIONA×3Bad setElla Maldonado+2.9
1710-7IONAIONA×3AceKari Smithaced Sienna Franks+3.2
1811-7IONAIONA×3Attack errMia Izzo+2.8
1911-8IONAMERMCKBlockedKatherine Ferngblk Mckenna Shotwell, Mia Izzo+2.2
2012-8MERMCKIONAServe errMckenna Shotwell+2.5
2112-9IONAMERMCKKillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+2.2
2213-9MERMCKIONAKillJulia Leonardoset Jaylyn Simon+2.5
2313-10IONAMERMCKAttack errEmma Koceja+2.3
2414-10MERMCKIONAServe errElizabeth Kenney+2.6
2514-11IONAMERMCKAttack errEmma Koceja+2.3
2615-11MERMCKIONAKillKari Smithset Grace Daniels+2.7
2715-12IONAMERMCKKillMaiella Blandinset Elizabeth Kenney+2.3
2816-12MERMCKIONAKillEmma Kocejaset Grace Daniels+2.7
2917-12IONAIONAAttack errMaiella Blandin+2.6
3017-13IONAMERMCK×3KillMckenna Shotwellset Elizabeth Kenney+1.7
3117-14MERMCKMERMCK×3KillMckenna Shotwellset Sophia DeBonis+2.7
3217-15MERMCKMERMCK×3KillMckenna Shotwellset Sophia DeBonis+3.5
3318-15MERMCKIONAKillGabby Taylorset Jaylyn Simon+3.5
3418-16IONAMERMCKKillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+3.1
3519-16MERMCKIONA×6KillGabby Taylorset Jaylyn Simon+3.7
3620-16IONAIONA×6KillJulia Leonardoset Jaylyn Simon+3.5
3721-16IONAIONA×6Attack errVaia Tsioutsioulas+2.5
3822-16IONAIONA×6KillKari Smithset Jaylyn Simon+1.5
3923-16IONAIONA×6KillKatherine Ferngset Sanem Bas+0.7
4024-16IONAIONA×6KillKatherine Ferng+0.2
4124-17IONAMERMCKKillVaia Tsioutsioulasset Mckenna Shotwell·
4225-17MERMCKIONABlockedVaia Tsioutsioulasblk Katherine Ferng, Buse Tinaz+0.1
Set 4
10-1IONAMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Sophia DeBonis+2.4
20-2MERMCKMERMCKBlockedKari Smithblk Jocelyn Hammerstrand, Mia Izzo+2.8
31-2MERMCKIONAAttack errJocelyn Hammerstrand+2.3
41-3IONAMERMCKAttack errKari Smith+2.5
51-4MERMCKMERMCKAttack errAvery Gaume+2.9
62-4MERMCKIONABlockedTamilore Afolalublk Katherine Ferng, Gabby Taylor+2.3
72-5IONAMERMCK×6KillTamilore Afolaluset Sophia DeBonis+2.5
82-6MERMCKMERMCK×6Attack errJulia Leonardo+2.9
92-7MERMCKMERMCK×6KillTamilore Afolaluset Sophia DeBonis+2.7
102-8MERMCKMERMCK×6KillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Mckenna Shotwell+2.4
112-9MERMCKMERMCK×6Attack errKatherine Ferng+2.1
122-10MERMCKMERMCK×6AceMerrimackaced Julia Leonardo+1.8
133-10MERMCKIONAServe errMia Izzo+1.2
143-11IONAMERMCKKillTamilore Afolaluset Sophia DeBonis+1.5
154-11MERMCKIONAKillEmma Kocejaset Grace Daniels+1.1
164-12IONAMERMCKKillTamilore Afolaluset Elizabeth Kenney+1.5
174-13MERMCKMERMCKKillMaiella Blandinset Ella Maldonado+1.4
185-13MERMCKIONA×4KillEmma Kocejaset Grace Daniels+0.8
196-13IONAIONA×4KillKari Smithset Buse Tinaz+1.2
207-13IONAIONA×4Attack errMaiella Blandin+1.6
218-13IONAIONA×4KillEmma Kocejaset Buse Tinaz+2.0
228-14IONAMERMCKKillMaiella Blandinset Elizabeth Kenney+2.2
239-14MERMCKIONAAttack errMaiella Blandin+1.6
249-15IONAMERMCK×5Bad setEmma Koceja+2.2
259-16MERMCKMERMCK×5AceMerrimackaced Avery Gaume+2.0
269-17MERMCKMERMCK×5Attack errKari Smith+1.5
279-18MERMCKMERMCK×5BlockedGabby Taylorblk Mckenna Shotwell+1.0
289-19MERMCKMERMCK×5KillMckenna Shotwellset Sophia DeBonis+0.6
2910-19MERMCKIONAAttack errJocelyn Hammerstrand+0.3
3011-19IONAIONAKillJulia Leonardoset Grace Daniels+0.5
3111-20IONAMERMCK×4KillSophia DeBonisset Sophia DeBonis+0.6
3211-21MERMCKMERMCK×4Attack errGabby Taylor+0.4
3311-22MERMCKMERMCK×4Attack errJulia Leonardo+0.2
3411-23MERMCKMERMCK×4KillTamilore Afolaluset Ella Maldonado+0.1
3512-23MERMCKIONAServe errMckenna Shotwell·
3612-24IONAMERMCKKillTamilore Afolaluset Sophia DeBonis·
3713-24MERMCKIONAServe errMia Izzo·
3813-25IONAMERMCKAttack errEmma Koceja+0.6
Set 5
11-0MERMCKIONABlockedMckenna Shotwellblk Buse Tinaz+6.6
21-1IONAMERMCK×4KillMckenna Shotwellset Sophia DeBonis+6.8
31-2MERMCKMERMCK×4KillTamilore Afolaluset Sophia DeBonis+8.5
41-3MERMCKMERMCK×4Attack errKari Smith+8.7
51-4MERMCKMERMCK×4Attack errBuse Tinaz+8.5
62-4MERMCKIONA×3KillBuse Tinazset Grace Daniels+6.4
73-4IONAIONA×3KillAnissa Cooperset Grace Daniels+8.4
84-4IONAIONA×3Attack errTamilore Afolalu+9.0
94-5IONAMERMCKKillTamilore Afolaluset Sophia DeBonis+8.3
105-5MERMCKIONA×3KillEmma Kocejaset Grace Daniels+8.0
116-5IONAIONA×3KillEmma Kocejaset Grace Daniels+9.7
127-5IONAIONA×3BlockedTamilore Afolalublk Grace Daniels, Anissa Cooper+9.4
137-6IONAMERMCK×3KillNaomi Vajdaset Sophia DeBonis+7.6
147-7MERMCKMERMCK×3BlockedKari Smithblk Naomi Vajda, Maiella Blandin+10.4
157-8MERMCKMERMCK×3KillMaiella Blandinset Elizabeth Kenney+11.5
168-8MERMCKIONAAttack errTamilore Afolalu+9.6
178-9IONAMERMCKKillTamilore Afolaluset Elizabeth Kenney+10.6
189-9MERMCKIONA×3KillKatherine Ferngset Jaylyn Simon+10.3
1910-9IONAIONA×3Attack errMckenna Shotwell+12.9
2011-9IONAIONA×3BlockedMckenna Shotwellblk Buse Tinaz, Katherine Ferng+12.4
2111-10IONAMERMCKAttack errJulia Leonardo+9.3
2211-11MERMCKMERMCKBlockedJulia Leonardoblk Maiella Blandin, Mia Izzo+14.4
2312-11MERMCKIONABlockedMaiella Blandinblk Buse Tinaz, Julia Leonardo+13.9
2413-11IONAIONAKillBuse Tinazset Grace Daniels+15.5
2513-12IONAMERMCKServe errGrace Daniels+10.2
2613-13MERMCKMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Sophia DeBonis+19.2
2714-13MERMCKIONAAttack errMia Izzo+21.5
2815-13IONAIONAKillEmma Kocejaset Grace Daniels+24.0

Score shown after each rally, Iona first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).