Final · 4 setsTue, Sep 1, 2026

AwayOVC

3:1

HomeMVC

Southeast Mo. St. def. Evansville 3–1

(25-17, 25-19, 17-25, 25-17)

Set	1	2	3	4	Sets
SEMO	25	25	17	25	3
EVANS	17	19	25	17	1

RallyIQ model

Win probability

EVANS above 50 · SEMO below

Biggest swing: 1.3% to Evansville — set 4, SEMO 4-5 EVANS. Kill by Lyla Fisher (set by Kendall Agler). EVANS win probability 5% → 6%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

SEMO 95.0%5.0% EVANS

Southeast Mo. St. wins

3-0

55.4%

3-1

29.7%

3-2

9.9%

Evansville wins

3-0

0.6%

3-1

1.4%

3-2

3.0%

SEMO break %: 48.6% vs this opp
EVANS break %: 36.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Lyla FisherKill+1.3%
Kill by Lyla Fisher (set by Kendall Agler)
Set 4 · SEMO 4-5 EVANS · EVANS 5% → 6%
02
Sabrina RippleKill+1.2%
Kill by Sabrina Ripple
Set 1 · SEMO 11-12 EVANS · EVANS 6% → 7%
03
Paige SmithKill+1.1%
Kill by Paige Smith (set by Nina Schuberth)
Set 4 · SEMO 6-5 EVANS · SEMO 95% → 96%
04
EVANS serverAce+1.1%
Evansville ace on Reagan Nelson
Set 4 · SEMO 4-4 EVANS · EVANS 3% → 5%
05
Marin JohnsonKill+1.0%
Kill by Marin Johnson (set by Ellie Burns)
Set 1 · SEMO 13-12 EVANS · SEMO 94% → 95%
06
McKenzie LaubachAttack error+1.0%
Attack error by McKenzie Laubach
Set 4 · SEMO 7-5 EVANS · SEMO 96% → 97%
07
Sabrina RippleKill+0.9%
Kill by Sabrina Ripple
Set 1 · SEMO 11-11 EVANS · EVANS 5% → 6%
08
EVANS serverAce+0.9%
Evansville ace on Team
Set 1 · SEMO 16-15 EVANS · EVANS 4% → 5%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Southeast Mo. St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
2Lucy ArndtOH	4	15	6	36	.250	2	3	1	10	0	0	0	0	18
3Paige SmithOH	4	11	6	24	.208	0	0	0	4	0	2	1	2.5	13.5
4Marin JohnsonOH	4	8	2	22	.273	0	0	2	3	0	1	0	1	9
24Alaina LesterMB	4	7	1	10	.600	2	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	7
11Megan HolderS	4	1	0	3	.333	23	0	1	8	0	0	0	0	1
19Jacey YoungMB	2	1	0	2	.500	0	1	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
12Reagan NelsonOH	4	4	2	13	.154	0	0	1	5	2	0	0	0	4
6Ellie BurnsS	4	4	0	4	1.000	12	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	4
1Nina SchuberthL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	8	0	0	0	0	0
17Katarina MiscevicMB	3	2	1	4	.250	0	4	0	3	0	1	0	1	7
8Holland GuilliamsL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0
5Alayna ChristnerOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13Brooklyn RitterS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		53	18	118	.297	43	8	7	53	4	4	2	5	92

Evansvillehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BLK	PTS
3Wren JonesOH	4	14	5	35	.257	1	0	1	4	2	1	1	15
18Makenzie MillerMB	4	8	0	14	.571	0	0	0	0	0	3	3	11
17Ryan ScheuOH	4	8	2	15	.400	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8
7Lyla FisherOH	4	5	6	22	-.045	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	6
2Carsyn KelleyS	4	1	1	4	.000	35	0	2	6	0	0	0	1
4Sabrina RippleMB	2	3	2	9	.111	0	0	1	2	0	2	2	5
6Lexi OwenS	4	0	0	0	–	1	2	1	6	0	0	0	2
15Brooke HerdesOH	4	0	0	1	.000	0	1	2	4	0	0	0	1
20Kendall AglerL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	6	1	1	18	2	0	0	1
10Aubry DowlingL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0
21McKenzie LaubachMB	2	5	1	10	.400	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	5
5Angelica Gonzalez MaltesOH	1	2	1	8	.125	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
13Holland MorrisOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		46	18	120	.233	43	4	10	44	8	7	7	78

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 SEMO · EVANS 5

Set 1

25-17

Longest run 4 SEMOEVANS 3

Set 2

25-19

Longest run 7 SEMOEVANS 4

Set 3

17-25

Longest run 2 SEMOEVANS 5

Set 4

25-17

Longest run 5 SEMOEVANS 3

Bars above the line = Evansville leads, below = Southeast Mo. St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Southeast Mo. St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	53%9/17	56%10/18
2	62%8/13	43%6/14
3	47%8/17	58%11/19
4	89%8/9	38%5/13
5	67%8/12	20%2/10
6	64%7/11	59%10/17
All	61%48/79	48%44/91

Evansville

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	56%9/16	50%7/14
2	50%8/16	40%6/15
3	47%8/17	38%5/13
4	73%8/11	43%6/14
5	53%8/15	11%1/9
6	38%6/16	43%6/14
All	52%47/91	39%31/79

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

170 rallies

Rally log

#	SEMO-EVANS	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	EVANS	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+0.4
2	1-1	SEMO	EVANS	Kill	Ryan Scheu	set Kendall Agler	+0.5
3	2-1	EVANS	SEMO	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Megan Holder	+0.4
4	3-1	SEMO	SEMO	Attack err	Ryan Scheu		+0.5
5	3-2	SEMO	EVANS	Kill	Wren Jones	set Kendall Agler	+0.4
6	3-3	EVANS	EVANS	Bad set	Lucy Arndt		+0.7
7	4-3	EVANS	SEMO	Serve err	EVANS server		+0.5
8	4-4	SEMO	EVANS	Serve err	SEMO server		+0.5
9	5-4	EVANS	SEMO	Attack err	Carsyn Kelley		+0.5
10	5-5	SEMO	EVANS	Kill	Wren Jones	set Kendall Agler	+0.6
11	6-5	EVANS	SEMO	Kill	Jacey Young	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.5
12	7-5	SEMO	SEMO	Attack err	Lyla Fisher	blk Paige Smith	+0.6
13	7-6	SEMO	EVANS	Kill	Makenzie Miller	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.5
14	7-7	EVANS	EVANS	Ace	EVANS server	aced Reagan Nelson	+0.8
15	8-7	EVANS	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+0.5
16	9-7	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Paige Smith	set Megan Holder	+0.7
17	9-8	SEMO	EVANS	Kill	Lyla Fisher	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.5
18	9-9	EVANS	EVANS	Attack err	Marin Johnson		+0.9
19	10-9	EVANS	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Lucy Arndt	+0.6
20	11-9	SEMO	SEMO	Ace	SEMO server	aced Wren Jones	+0.7
21	11-10	SEMO	EVANS×3	Kill	Ryan Scheu	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.6
22	11-11	EVANS	EVANS×3	Kill	Sabrina Ripple		+0.9
23	11-12	EVANS	EVANS×3	Kill	Sabrina Ripple		+1.2
24	12-12	EVANS	SEMO×3	Serve err	EVANS server		+0.8
25	13-12	SEMO	SEMO×3	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Ellie Burns	+1.0
26	14-12	SEMO	SEMO×3	Attack err	Wren Jones		+0.8
27	14-13	SEMO	EVANS	Serve err	SEMO server		+0.6
28	15-13	EVANS	SEMO	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Ellie Burns	+0.6
29	16-13	SEMO	SEMO	Attack err	Wren Jones		+0.7
30	16-14	SEMO	EVANS	Kill	Ryan Scheu	set Wren Jones	+0.5
31	16-15	EVANS	EVANS	Ace	EVANS server	aced Team	+0.9
32	17-15	EVANS	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+0.7
33	17-16	SEMO	EVANS	Kill	Wren Jones	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.7
34	18-16	EVANS	SEMO×4	Kill	Ellie Burns	set Ellie Burns	+0.8
35	19-16	SEMO	SEMO×4	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+0.8
36	20-16	SEMO	SEMO×4	Kill	Paige Smith	set Kendall Agler	+0.6
37	21-16	SEMO	SEMO×4	Attack err	Lyla Fisher	blk Paige Smith, Jacey Young	+0.3
38	21-17	SEMO	EVANS	Kill	Makenzie Miller	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.2
39	22-17	EVANS	SEMO×4	Serve err	EVANS server		+0.2
40	23-17	SEMO	SEMO×4	Ace	SEMO server	aced Kendall Agler	+0.1
41	24-17	SEMO	SEMO×4	Ace	SEMO server	aced Wren Jones	+0.0
42	25-17	SEMO	SEMO×4	Ace	SEMO server	aced Lyla Fisher	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.4
2	1-1	SEMO	EVANS	Serve err	SEMO server		+0.3
3	1-2	EVANS	EVANS	Attack err	Lucy Arndt		+0.5
4	2-2	EVANS	SEMO×3	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+0.3
5	3-2	SEMO	SEMO×3	Kill	Katarina Miscevic	set Megan Holder	+0.4
6	4-2	SEMO	SEMO×3	Kill	Paige Smith	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.3
7	4-3	SEMO	EVANS	Attack err	Paige Smith	blk Sabrina Ripple	+0.3
8	5-3	EVANS	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Megan Holder	+0.2
9	6-3	SEMO	SEMO	Attack err	Ryan Scheu		+0.3
10	6-4	SEMO	EVANS	Kill	Sabrina Ripple	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.2
11	7-4	EVANS	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Megan Holder	+0.2
12	7-5	SEMO	EVANS	Serve err	SEMO server		+0.2
13	8-5	EVANS	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Ellie Burns	+0.2
14	9-5	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Holland Guilliams	+0.3
15	9-6	SEMO	EVANS	Serve err	SEMO server		+0.2
16	10-6	EVANS	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Ellie Burns	+0.2
17	10-7	SEMO	EVANS	Kill	Wren Jones	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.2
18	11-7	EVANS	SEMO×3	Serve err	EVANS server		+0.2
19	12-7	SEMO	SEMO×3	Kill	Paige Smith	set Nina Schuberth	+0.2
20	13-7	SEMO	SEMO×3	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+0.1
21	13-8	SEMO	EVANS	Kill	Carsyn Kelley		+0.1
22	13-9	EVANS	EVANS	Kill	Angelica Gonzalez Maltes	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.2
23	14-9	EVANS	SEMO	Kill	Paige Smith	set Megan Holder	+0.1
24	14-10	SEMO	EVANS	Kill	Angelica Gonzalez Maltes	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.1
25	14-11	EVANS	EVANS	Bad set	Katarina Miscevic		+0.3
26	15-11	EVANS	SEMO×7	Kill	Paige Smith	set Megan Holder	+0.2
27	16-11	SEMO	SEMO×7	Attack err	Sabrina Ripple	blk Marin Johnson	+0.2
28	17-11	SEMO	SEMO×7	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Lucy Arndt	+0.1
29	18-11	SEMO	SEMO×7	Ace	SEMO server	aced Kendall Agler	+0.1
30	19-11	SEMO	SEMO×7	Attack err	Angelica Gonzalez Maltes	blk Paige Smith	+0.0
31	20-11	SEMO	SEMO×7	Ace	SEMO server	aced Team	+0.0
32	21-11	SEMO	SEMO×7	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Lucy Arndt	+0.0
33	21-12	SEMO	EVANS×4	Attack err	Marin Johnson	blk Sabrina Ripple	+0.0
34	21-13	EVANS	EVANS×4	Kill	Ryan Scheu	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.0
35	21-14	EVANS	EVANS×4	Attack err	Paige Smith		+0.0
36	21-15	EVANS	EVANS×4	Attack err	Lucy Arndt		+0.0
37	22-15	EVANS	SEMO	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Megan Holder	+0.0
38	23-15	SEMO	SEMO	Attack err	Sabrina Ripple		+0.0
39	23-16	SEMO	EVANS	Kill	Wren Jones	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.0
40	24-16	EVANS	SEMO	Attack err	Wren Jones		+0.0
41	24-17	SEMO	EVANS×3	Attack err	Lucy Arndt		+0.0
42	24-18	EVANS	EVANS×3	Ace	EVANS server	aced Team	+0.0
43	24-19	EVANS	EVANS×3	Kill	Makenzie Miller	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.0
44	25-19	EVANS	SEMO	Serve err	EVANS server		+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	EVANS	EVANS×5	Attack err	Paige Smith	blk Makenzie Miller	+0.2
2	0-2	EVANS	EVANS×5	Kill	Wren Jones	set Lexi Owen	+0.2
3	0-3	EVANS	EVANS×5	Kill	Wren Jones	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.3
4	0-4	EVANS	EVANS×5	Attack err	Katarina Miscevic	blk Makenzie Miller	+0.3
5	0-5	EVANS	EVANS×5	Kill	Wren Jones	set Kendall Agler	+0.3
6	1-5	EVANS	SEMO	Serve err	EVANS server		+0.2
7	1-6	SEMO	EVANS	Kill	Makenzie Miller	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.3
8	1-7	EVANS	EVANS	Bad set	Lucy Arndt		+0.3
9	2-7	EVANS	SEMO	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Megan Holder	+0.2
10	2-8	SEMO	EVANS×3	Kill	Wren Jones	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.3
11	2-9	EVANS	EVANS×3	Attack err	Alaina Lester		+0.3
12	2-10	EVANS	EVANS×3	Kill	McKenzie Laubach	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.3
13	3-10	EVANS	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Ellie Burns	+0.2
14	3-11	SEMO	EVANS	Kill	Ryan Scheu	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.2
15	4-11	EVANS	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Ellie Burns	+0.2
16	4-12	SEMO	EVANS	Kill	McKenzie Laubach	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.2
17	4-13	EVANS	EVANS	Attack err	Lucy Arndt	blk Makenzie Miller	+0.3
18	5-13	EVANS	SEMO	Kill	Ellie Burns	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.1
19	6-13	SEMO	SEMO	Bad set	Ryan Scheu		+0.2
20	6-14	SEMO	EVANS	Kill	Ryan Scheu	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.2
21	7-14	EVANS	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+0.1
22	8-14	SEMO	SEMO	Attack err	Lyla Fisher	blk Katarina Miscevic	+0.2
23	8-15	SEMO	EVANS	Kill	Makenzie Miller	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.3
24	9-15	EVANS	SEMO	Kill	Katarina Miscevic	set Megan Holder	+0.2
25	10-15	SEMO	SEMO	Bad set	Carsyn Kelley		+0.3
26	10-16	SEMO	EVANS	Attack err	Paige Smith	blk Wren Jones	+0.3
27	10-17	EVANS	EVANS	Kill	Wren Jones	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.3
28	11-17	EVANS	SEMO	Kill	Paige Smith	set Megan Holder	+0.1
29	12-17	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Alaina Lester	+0.3
30	12-18	SEMO	EVANS	Kill	McKenzie Laubach	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.3
31	12-19	EVANS	EVANS	Attack err	Lucy Arndt		+0.3
32	13-19	EVANS	SEMO	Serve err	EVANS server		+0.1
33	14-19	SEMO	SEMO	Attack err	Wren Jones		+0.2
34	14-20	SEMO	EVANS	Attack err	Lucy Arndt		+0.3
35	15-20	EVANS	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Ellie Burns	+0.1
36	15-21	SEMO	EVANS	Kill	Lyla Fisher	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.3
37	16-21	EVANS	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Ellie Burns	+0.1
38	16-22	SEMO	EVANS×3	Attack err	Reagan Nelson		+0.2
39	16-23	EVANS	EVANS×3	Kill	Lyla Fisher	set Kendall Agler	+0.2
40	16-24	EVANS	EVANS×3	Attack err	Paige Smith	blk Lyla Fisher	+0.1
41	17-24	EVANS	SEMO	Attack err	Lyla Fisher		+0.0
42	17-25	SEMO	EVANS	Kill	Makenzie Miller	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.0
Set 4
1	1-0	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Megan Holder	+0.9
2	1-1	SEMO	EVANS	Kill	Makenzie Miller	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.8
3	2-1	EVANS	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Nina Schuberth	+0.7
4	3-1	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+0.8
5	3-2	SEMO	EVANS	Serve err	SEMO server		+0.7
6	4-2	EVANS	SEMO	Kill	Marin Johnson	set Megan Holder	+0.6
7	4-3	SEMO	EVANS×3	Kill	Wren Jones	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.7
8	4-4	EVANS	EVANS×3	Ace	EVANS server	aced Reagan Nelson	+1.1
9	4-5	EVANS	EVANS×3	Kill	Lyla Fisher	set Kendall Agler	+1.3
10	5-5	EVANS	SEMO×3	Serve err	EVANS server		+0.9
11	6-5	SEMO	SEMO×3	Kill	Paige Smith	set Nina Schuberth	+1.1
12	7-5	SEMO	SEMO×3	Attack err	McKenzie Laubach		+1.0
13	7-6	SEMO	EVANS	Kill	Ryan Scheu	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.8
14	8-6	EVANS	SEMO	Serve err	EVANS server		+0.7
15	9-6	SEMO	SEMO	Attack err	Lyla Fisher		+0.8
16	9-7	SEMO	EVANS	Serve err	SEMO server		+0.6
17	10-7	EVANS	SEMO	Kill	Paige Smith	set Ellie Burns	+0.6
18	11-7	SEMO	SEMO	Bad set	Carsyn Kelley		+0.7
19	11-8	SEMO	EVANS	Kill	Lyla Fisher	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.5
20	12-8	EVANS	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Ellie Burns	+0.5
21	13-8	SEMO	SEMO	Attack err	Wren Jones		+0.5
22	13-9	SEMO	EVANS	Kill	Wren Jones	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.3
23	14-9	EVANS	SEMO	Kill	Reagan Nelson	set Megan Holder	+0.4
24	14-10	SEMO	EVANS	Kill	McKenzie Laubach	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.3
25	15-10	EVANS	SEMO	Serve err	EVANS server		+0.4
26	15-11	SEMO	EVANS	Kill	Wren Jones	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.3
27	16-11	EVANS	SEMO	Kill	Lucy Arndt	set Megan Holder	+0.4
28	16-12	SEMO	EVANS	Kill	McKenzie Laubach	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.3
29	17-12	EVANS	SEMO	Kill	Ellie Burns		+0.4
30	17-13	SEMO	EVANS	Kill	Ryan Scheu	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.3
31	17-14	EVANS	EVANS	Attack err	Reagan Nelson		+0.7
32	18-14	EVANS	SEMO×5	Attack err	Lyla Fisher		+0.6
33	19-14	SEMO	SEMO×5	Ace	SEMO server	aced Team	+0.6
34	20-14	SEMO	SEMO×5	Kill	Paige Smith	set Ellie Burns	+0.3
35	21-14	SEMO	SEMO×5	Kill	Paige Smith	set Alaina Lester	+0.2
36	22-14	SEMO	SEMO×5	Ace	SEMO server	aced Team	+0.1
37	22-15	SEMO	EVANS	Kill	Makenzie Miller	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.0
38	22-16	EVANS	EVANS	Attack err	Paige Smith		+0.1
39	23-16	EVANS	SEMO	Kill	Ellie Burns		+0.1
40	23-17	SEMO	EVANS	Kill	Wren Jones	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.0
41	24-17	EVANS	SEMO	Kill	Alaina Lester	set Megan Holder	+0.0
42	25-17	SEMO	SEMO	Kill	Megan Holder	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Southeast Mo. St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.