Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 16, 2026

Mercer def. Furman 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Furman 74.8% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 16, 4:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Mercer won at Furman 3-1 (19-25, 25-15, 25-19, 25-22) on Fri, Oct 16, 2026. Mercer's Lara Matta led with 21 kills, and Sarah Frager added 15 digs.

Data through · final Oct 16

Set1234Sets
MERCER192525253
FURMAN251519221

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Sarah Frager served 4 aces, and Mercer needed every one.

The match turned twice. Numbers are Mercer's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. Pre-match, Furman was RallyIQ's 75% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · Mercer 0–0 Furman

    From here Mercer won 25 of 40 rallies to take the set 25–15.

    Mercer 14% → 30%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Mercer 21–22 Furman

    Mercer closed it, 4 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 25–22 and win the match 3–1.

    Mercer 54% → >99%

Furman above 50Mercer belowMax swing 13.9%

MercerFurman

Sideout %
Mercer 57.3·Furman 49.5
Break %
Mercer 50.5·Furman 42.7
Hitting
Mercer .245·Furman .152
Longest run
Mercer 10·Furman 6

Lara Matta
21 kills on .372, 23.5 points; 5 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Furman above 50 · Mercer below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+13.9% MERCERrally 175 · set 4

Biggest swing: 13.9% to Mercer — set 4, MERCER 24-22 FURMAN. Attack error by Ashley Stein. FURMAN win probability 23% → 9%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MERCER 28.9%71.1% FURMAN

Mercer wins

3-0
5.4%
3-1
10.1%
3-2
13.4%

Furman wins

3-0
24.0%
3-1
27.3%
3-2
19.8%
MERCER break %
42.1% vs this opp
FURMAN break %
46.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Ashley SteinAttack error+13.9%

    Attack error by Ashley Stein

    Set 4 · MERCER 24-22 FURMAN · MERCER 77% → 91%

  2. 02
    Sarah FragerAce+13.3%

    Ace by Sarah Frager on Lauren Haynes

    Set 4 · MERCER 23-22 FURMAN · MERCER 64% → 77%

  3. 03
    Ashley SteinAttack error+10.1%

    Attack error by Ashley Stein

    Set 4 · MERCER 22-22 FURMAN · MERCER 54% → 64%

  4. 04
    Sarah FragerAce+8.8%

    Ace by Sarah Frager on Brooke Scheffler

    Set 4 · MERCER 25-22 FURMAN · MERCER 91% → 100%

  5. 05

    Morgan Baldridge stuffed by Joselynn Sanjurjo

    Set 4 · MERCER 21-22 FURMAN · MERCER 47% → 54%

  6. 06
    Avery WilksKill+4.7%

    Kill by Avery Wilks

    Set 3 · MERCER 16-13 FURMAN · MERCER 41% → 45%

  7. 07
    Izzy CastelloeAttack error+4.4%

    Attack error by Izzy Castelloe

    Set 4 · MERCER 8-8 FURMAN · MERCER 57% → 61%

  8. 08
    Morgan BaldridgeBad set+4.4%

    Bad set by Morgan Baldridge

    Set 4 · MERCER 4-2 FURMAN · MERCER 64% → 69%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Merceraway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
421543.372323132010.523.5
410120.45010020313.513.5
49630.1000105000010
46420.10000040010.56.5
43111.1824302120010.53.5
1203.66700010111.53.5
4000–0421540004
4001.000111300001
4003.0004011010000
35412.08300030010.55.5
Team totals5621143.245528968946794
Furmanhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414645.17812211002117
410321.33300310031.511.5
45326.0770111130006
4113.000000101223
40210-.200321190111.52.5
4001.000011700001
4001.0001311210003
38323.21700020111.59.5
2217.14300003010.52.5
2000–011000001
2000–000110000
1001.000000001011
Team totals4019138.15234910558410981

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Mercer vs Furman

Season series · Mercer leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 10 MERCER · FURMAN 6

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 3 MERCERFURMAN 4

Set 2

25-15

Longest run 5 MERCERFURMAN 2

Set 3

25-19

Longest run 4 MERCERFURMAN 3

Set 4

25-22

Longest run 10 MERCERFURMAN 6

Bars above the line = Furman leads, below = Mercer leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Mercer

SlotSideout %Break %
1
53%9/17
42%5/12
2
47%9/19
40%6/15
3
62%8/13
36%5/14
4
50%8/16
56%10/18
5
88%7/8
70%16/23
6
67%6/9
45%5/11
All
57%47/82
51%47/93

Furman

SlotSideout %Break %
1
56%9/16
46%6/13
2
60%9/15
47%8/17
3
57%8/14
47%7/15
4
47%8/17
50%8/16
5
29%7/24
27%3/11
6
71%5/7
30%3/10
All
49%46/93
43%35/82

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

175 rallies

#MERCER-FURMANSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1FURMANFURMANAceAshtan Dodsonaced Lara Matta+1.9
21-1FURMANMERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+1.5
31-2MERCERFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+1.4
42-2FURMANMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+1.5
52-3MERCERFURMANKillKacie Mooreset Morgan Baldridge+1.5
62-4FURMANFURMANKillKacie Moore+1.8
73-4FURMANMERCERKillLara Mattaset Joselynn Sanjurjo+1.4
83-5MERCERFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+1.4
93-6FURMANFURMANKillKacie Mooreset Morgan Baldridge+1.7
104-6FURMANMERCERKillLara Mattaset Aubri Martin+1.3
114-7MERCERFURMANServe errLara Matta+1.3
125-7FURMANMERCERKillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+1.3
135-8MERCERFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+1.4
145-9FURMANFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+1.6
156-9FURMANMERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+1.1
166-10MERCERFURMANKillAmber Watsonset Morgan Baldridge+1.2
177-10FURMANMERCERKillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+1.1
187-11MERCERFURMAN×4KillLauren Haynesset Izzy Castelloe+1.2
197-12FURMANFURMAN×4KillKacie Mooreset Morgan Baldridge+1.3
207-13FURMANFURMAN×4KillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+1.0
217-14FURMANFURMAN×4Attack errLara Matta+0.8
228-14FURMANMERCERAttack errLauren Haynes+0.4
239-14MERCERMERCERBlockedLauren Haynesblk Bella Pons+0.8
249-15MERCERFURMANServe errAubri Martin+0.8
2510-15FURMANMERCERBlockedLauren Haynesblk Sammi Bergjans, Bella Pons+0.6
2611-15MERCERMERCERKillBella Pons+1.1
2711-16MERCERFURMANKillLauren Haynesset Morgan Baldridge+1.1
2811-17FURMANFURMANBad setSammi Bergjans+1.0
2912-17FURMANMERCERKillBella Ponsset Sammi Bergjans+0.6
3012-18MERCERFURMANKillAmber Watsonset Morgan Baldridge+0.7
3113-18FURMANMERCERServe errKacie Moore+0.5
3213-19MERCERFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+0.7
3314-19FURMANMERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+0.5
3415-19MERCERMERCERAceBrooklyn Palmeraced Amber Watson+1.0
3515-20MERCERFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+1.0
3615-21FURMANFURMANBlockedTaylor Timkoblk Izzy Castelloe, Tennyson Gorman+0.8
3716-21FURMANMERCER×3Serve errAshtan Dodson+0.3
3817-21MERCERMERCER×3AceSarah Frageraced Kennedy Seekford+0.8
3918-21MERCERMERCER×3BlockedTennyson Gormanblk Joselynn Sanjurjo+1.3
4018-22MERCERFURMANServe errSarah Frager+1.5
4118-23FURMANFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+1.1
4219-23FURMANMERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+0.3
4319-24MERCERFURMANBlockedLara Mattablk Kacie Moore, Izzy Castelloe+0.6
4419-25FURMANFURMANAceIzzy Castelloeaced Sarah Frager+0.2
Set 2
11-0MERCERMERCERAttack errIzzy Castelloe+1.6
21-1MERCERFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+1.2
32-1FURMANMERCER×4KillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+1.3
43-1MERCERMERCER×4KillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+1.8
54-1MERCERMERCER×4Attack errKacie Moore+1.8
65-1MERCERMERCER×4BlockedIzzy Castelloeblk Avery Wilks, Lara Matta+1.8
75-2MERCERFURMANAttack errAvery Wilks+1.2
86-2FURMANMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+1.4
96-3MERCERFURMANServe errSammi Bergjans+1.2
106-4FURMANFURMANAceLauren Haynesaced Sarah Frager+1.7
117-4FURMANMERCER×3KillAvery Wilksset Sammi Bergjans+1.5
128-4MERCERMERCER×3AceLara Mattaaced Amber Watson+1.9
139-4MERCERMERCER×3Attack errAmber Watson+1.8
149-5MERCERFURMANKillKacie Mooreset Morgan Baldridge+1.1
1510-5FURMANMERCERServe errKacie Moore+1.4
1610-6MERCERFURMANBlockedBrooklyn Palmerblk Amber Watson, Tennyson Gorman+1.2
1710-7FURMANFURMANAceMorgan Baldridgeaced Lara Matta+1.7
1811-7FURMANMERCERKillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+1.6
1911-8MERCERFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+1.3
2011-9FURMANFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Kennedy Seekford+1.9
2112-9FURMANMERCER×3KillSammi Bergjansset Lara Matta+1.7
2213-9MERCERMERCER×3KillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+2.2
2314-9MERCERMERCER×3KillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+2.0
2414-10MERCERFURMANServe errSarah Frager+1.2
2514-11FURMANFURMANAceKennedy Seekford+1.8
2615-11FURMANMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+1.8
2715-12MERCERFURMANAttack errAvery Wilks+1.4
2816-12FURMANMERCERKillSammi Bergjansset Lara Matta+1.8
2916-13MERCERFURMANKillKacie Mooreset Morgan Baldridge+1.4
3017-13FURMANMERCER×3KillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+1.8
3118-13MERCERMERCER×3AceLara Mattaaced Amber Watson+2.0
3219-13MERCERMERCER×3Attack errKacie Moore+1.5
3319-14MERCERFURMANServe errLara Matta+0.7
3420-14FURMANMERCER×5KillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+1.1
3521-14MERCERMERCER×5KillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+0.9
3622-14MERCERMERCER×5AceEmily Matiasaced Lauren Haynes+0.5
3723-14MERCERMERCER×5Attack errIzzy Castelloe+0.2
3824-14MERCERMERCER×5KillBrooklyn Palmerset Emily Matias+0.1
3924-15MERCERFURMANKillAshley Steinset Morgan Baldridge·
4025-15FURMANMERCERServe errMorgan Baldridge·
Set 3
10-1FURMANFURMAN×3BlockedAvery Wilksblk Tennyson Gorman+2.7
20-2FURMANFURMAN×3Attack errLara Matta+2.5
30-3FURMANFURMAN×3Attack errLara Matta+2.3
41-3FURMANMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+1.8
52-3MERCERMERCERKillLara Mattaset Aubri Martin+2.6
62-4MERCERFURMANKillLauren Haynesset Morgan Baldridge+2.0
73-4FURMANMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+2.1
83-5MERCERFURMANServe errMercer+2.1
94-5FURMANMERCERServe errIzzy Castelloe+2.1
104-6MERCERFURMANServe errMercer+2.1
114-7FURMANFURMANKillAshley Steinset Morgan Baldridge+2.6
125-7FURMANMERCER×4KillTaylor Timkoset Aubri Martin+1.9
136-7MERCERMERCER×4KillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+2.9
147-7MERCERMERCER×4KillTaylor Timkoset Aubri Martin+3.3
158-7MERCERMERCER×4KillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+3.6
168-8MERCERFURMANAttack errBrooklyn Palmer+2.6
179-8FURMANMERCER×4Serve errKacie Moore+2.9
1810-8MERCERMERCER×4KillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+3.9
1911-8MERCERMERCER×4KillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+4.0
2012-8MERCERMERCER×4AceSarah Frageraced Lauren Haynes+3.8
2112-9MERCERFURMANBlockedSammi Bergjansblk Ashley Stein+2.4
2212-10FURMANFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+3.6
2313-10FURMANMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+3.3
2413-11MERCERFURMANKillTennyson Gormanset Morgan Baldridge+2.8
2514-11FURMANMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+3.4
2614-12MERCERFURMANServe errSammi Bergjans+2.9
2714-13FURMANFURMANAttack errLara Matta+4.2
2815-13FURMANMERCER×3KillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+3.7
2916-13MERCERMERCER×3KillAvery Wilks+4.7
3017-13MERCERMERCER×3KillLara Mattaset Aubri Martin+4.4
3117-14MERCERFURMANAttack errAvery Wilks+2.5
3218-14FURMANMERCER×4KillAvery Wilksset Sammi Bergjans+3.5
3319-14MERCERMERCER×4Attack errIzzy Castelloe+3.7
3420-14MERCERMERCER×4BlockedKacie Mooreblk Joselynn Sanjurjo, Taylor Timko+2.7
3521-14MERCERMERCER×4KillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Emily Matias+1.7
3621-15MERCERFURMAN×3Attack errBrooklyn Palmer+0.6
3721-16FURMANFURMAN×3BlockedTaylor Timkoblk Kacie Moore, Morgan Baldridge+1.3
3821-17FURMANFURMAN×3KillKacie Mooreset Morgan Baldridge+2.0
3922-17FURMANMERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+2.6
4022-18MERCERFURMANKillAshley Steinset Morgan Baldridge+1.2
4123-18FURMANMERCERKillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+2.3
4224-18MERCERMERCERAttack errAshley Stein+1.3
4324-19MERCERFURMANKillAshley Steinset Morgan Baldridge+0.2
4425-19FURMANMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+0.5
Set 4
11-0MERCERMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+3.9
21-1MERCERFURMANKillLauren Haynesset Morgan Baldridge+2.9
32-1FURMANMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+3.1
42-2MERCERFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Sammi Bergjans+2.9
53-2FURMANMERCERServe errIzzy Castelloe+3.2
64-2MERCERMERCERBad setMorgan Baldridge+4.4
74-3MERCERFURMAN×3Attack errBrooklyn Palmer+3.1
84-4FURMANFURMAN×3Attack errTaylor Timko+4.1
94-5FURMANFURMAN×3KillAshley Stein+4.0
105-5FURMANMERCERServe errLauren Haynes+3.2
115-6MERCERFURMANKillAshley Steinset Morgan Baldridge+3.1
125-7FURMANFURMANAceTiffany Helmer+3.8
136-7FURMANMERCERServe errTiffany Helmer+2.9
146-8MERCERFURMANKillAshley Steinset Morgan Baldridge+3.0
157-8FURMANMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+3.0
168-8MERCERMERCERAttack errIzzy Castelloe+4.4
178-9MERCERFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+3.4
189-9FURMANMERCERKillAvery Wilksset Sammi Bergjans+3.6
199-10MERCERFURMAN×3KillLauren Haynesset Morgan Baldridge+3.5
209-11FURMANFURMAN×3AceKennedy Seekfordaced Sarah Frager+4.3
219-12FURMANFURMAN×3AceKennedy Seekfordaced Sarah Frager+3.9
2210-12FURMANMERCERServe errKennedy Seekford+2.8
2310-13MERCERFURMAN×6KillKacie Mooreset Morgan Baldridge+3.0
2410-14FURMANFURMAN×6AceIzzy Castelloeaced Aubri Martin+3.4
2510-15FURMANFURMAN×6Bad setSammi Bergjans+2.7
2610-16FURMANFURMAN×6KillKacie Moore+2.0
2710-17FURMANFURMAN×6BlockedTaylor Timkoblk Morgan Baldridge+1.3
2810-18FURMANFURMAN×6Attack errBrooklyn Palmer+0.8
2911-18FURMANMERCERKillAvery Wilksset Sammi Bergjans+0.4
3012-18MERCERMERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+0.8
3112-19MERCERFURMANKillKacie Mooreset Morgan Baldridge+0.9
3213-19FURMANMERCER×3KillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+0.6
3314-19MERCERMERCER×3KillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+1.2
3415-19MERCERMERCER×3Attack errMorgan Baldridge+1.9
3515-20MERCERFURMAN×3BlockedBrooklyn Palmerblk Kacie Moore, Ashley Stein+2.0
3615-21FURMANFURMAN×3BlockedJoselynn Sanjurjoblk Rebekah Buchholz+1.6
3715-22FURMANFURMAN×3KillAshley Steinset Morgan Baldridge+0.8
3816-22FURMANMERCER×10KillSammi Bergjansset Lara Matta+0.3
3917-22MERCERMERCER×10KillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+0.6
4018-22MERCERMERCER×10KillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+1.2
4119-22MERCERMERCER×10KillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+2.3
4220-22MERCERMERCER×10BlockedIzzy Castelloeblk Joselynn Sanjurjo+4.0
4321-22MERCERMERCER×10BlockedMorgan Baldridgeblk Joselynn Sanjurjo+6.7
4422-22MERCERMERCER×10Attack errAshley Stein+10.1
4523-22MERCERMERCER×10AceSarah Frageraced Lauren Haynes+13.3
4624-22MERCERMERCER×10Attack errAshley Stein+13.9
4725-22MERCERMERCER×10AceSarah Frageraced Brooke Scheffler+8.8

Score shown after each rally, Mercer first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).