Final · 5 setsSat, Oct 17, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Mercer def. Furman 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Furman 69.5% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 17, 12:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Mercer won at Furman 3-2 (17-25, 20-25, 25-18, 25-20, 15-13) on Sat, Oct 17, 2026. Mercer's Lara Matta led with 20 kills, and Sammi Bergjans added 18 digs.

Data through · final Oct 17

Set12345Sets
MERCER17202525153
FURMAN25251820132

Match story · written from the play-by-play

7 aces from Aubri Martin, and Mercer needed each of them.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows Mercer's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. Furman went in at 70% by RallyIQ.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 5 · Mercer 0–0 Furman

    Furman scored 3 straight to open the set 3–0.

    Mercer 40% → 20%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Mercer 6–11 Furman

    Mercer scored 4 straight to cut a 6–11 deficit to 10–11.

    Mercer 4% → 28%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Mercer 12–12 Furman

    Mercer won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 15–13 and win the match 3–2.

    Mercer 43% → >99%

Furman above 50Mercer belowMax swing 29.8%

MercerFurman

Sideout %
Mercer 54.5·Furman 53.9
Break %
Mercer 46.1·Furman 45.5
Hitting
Mercer .144·Furman .186
Longest run
Mercer 8·Furman 7

Lara Matta
3 of her kills came in the stretches above. 20 K, .167, 20.5 points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Furman above 50 · Mercer below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+29.8% MERCERrally 203 · set 5

Biggest swing: 29.8% to Mercer — set 5, MERCER 15-13 FURMAN. Kill by Taylor Timko (set by Sammi Bergjans). FURMAN win probability 30% → 0%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MERCER 28.9%71.1% FURMAN

Mercer wins

3-0
5.4%
3-1
10.1%
3-2
13.4%

Furman wins

3-0
24.1%
3-1
27.3%
3-2
19.8%
MERCER break %
42.1% vs this opp
FURMAN break %
46.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Taylor TimkoKill+29.8%

    Kill by Taylor Timko (set by Sammi Bergjans)

    Set 5 · MERCER 15-13 FURMAN · MERCER 70% → 100%

  2. 02
    Sammi BergjansKill+21.4%

    Kill by Sammi Bergjans (set by Aubri Martin)

    Set 5 · MERCER 14-13 FURMAN · MERCER 49% → 70%

  3. 03
    Lara MattaKill+21.4%

    Kill by Lara Matta (set by Aubri Martin)

    Set 5 · MERCER 13-12 FURMAN · MERCER 43% → 64%

  4. 04
    Sarah FragerKill+16.5%

    Kill by Sarah Frager (set by Morgan Baldridge)

    Set 5 · MERCER 12-12 FURMAN · MERCER 27% → 43%

  5. 05
    Sammi BergjansService error+15.7%

    Service error by Sammi Bergjans

    Set 5 · MERCER 13-13 FURMAN · FURMAN 36% → 51%

  6. 06
    Lara MattaKill+10.7%

    Kill by Lara Matta (set by Sammi Bergjans)

    Set 5 · MERCER 10-11 FURMAN · MERCER 18% → 28%

  7. 07
    Izzy CastelloeKill+10.5%

    Kill by Izzy Castelloe (set by Morgan Baldridge)

    Set 5 · MERCER 10-12 FURMAN · FURMAN 72% → 82%

  8. 08

    Kill by Sammi Bergjans (set by Brooke Kaoui)

    Set 5 · MERCER 11-12 FURMAN · MERCER 18% → 27%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Merceraway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
520966.16710262010.520.5
512533.21210030010.512.5
58424.16700010010.58.5
55615-.06743131800217
24415.00003060010.57.5
1115.000000000001
5000–9701530007
51011.0001211010003
5000–000100000
45215.200000201438
33113.154000200003
3000–111700001
Team totals5932187.144561477161106102
Furmanhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
511422.31803250132.516.5
513338.2631016012215
59532.125120164132.513.5
5507.7144600800216
5024-.500200910000
44512-.083200102448
513442.2140003302114
5011-1.0000102410001
5013-.3332001030000
1000–000000211
Team totals5525161.1865463821451814101

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Mercer vs Furman

Season series · Mercer leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 8 MERCER · FURMAN 7

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 3 MERCERFURMAN 7

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 3 MERCERFURMAN 4

Set 3

25-18

Longest run 7 MERCERFURMAN 3

Set 4

25-20

Longest run 8 MERCERFURMAN 4

Set 5

15-13

Longest run 4 MERCERFURMAN 3

Bars above the line = Furman leads, below = Mercer leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Mercer

SlotSideout %Break %
1
71%12/17
52%11/21
2
53%9/17
38%6/16
3
41%9/22
18%2/11
4
56%9/16
40%6/15
5
60%9/15
31%4/13
6
50%7/14
69%18/26
All
54%55/101
46%47/102

Furman

SlotSideout %Break %
1
48%12/25
53%10/19
2
71%10/14
25%4/16
3
64%9/14
64%16/25
4
82%9/11
50%9/18
5
35%8/23
18%2/11
6
47%7/15
42%5/12
All
54%55/102
46%46/101

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

203 rallies

#MERCER-FURMANSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0FURMANMERCERKillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+1.7
21-1MERCERFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+1.7
32-1FURMANMERCERAttack errAshtan Dodson+1.8
43-1MERCERMERCERAceAubri Martinaced Ashtan Dodson+2.3
53-2MERCERFURMAN×7KillAshley Steinset Ashtan Dodson+1.7
63-3FURMANFURMAN×7BlockedLara Mattablk Kacie Moore, Morgan Baldridge+2.2
73-4FURMANFURMAN×7Attack errSammi Bergjans+2.2
83-5FURMANFURMAN×7KillAmber Watsonset Morgan Baldridge+2.1
93-6FURMANFURMAN×7AceAshley Steinaced Aubri Martin+1.9
103-7FURMANFURMAN×7Attack errAvery Wilks+1.7
113-8FURMANFURMAN×7KillKacie Mooreset Morgan Baldridge+1.5
124-8FURMANMERCERKillAvery Wilksset Sammi Bergjans+1.0
135-8MERCERMERCERKillLara Mattaset Aubri Martin+1.6
145-9MERCERFURMAN×4KillKacie Mooreset Morgan Baldridge+1.4
155-10FURMANFURMAN×4AceKacie Mooreaced Aubri Martin+1.5
165-11FURMANFURMAN×4Attack errLara Matta+1.2
175-12FURMANFURMAN×4KillAmber Watsonset Morgan Baldridge+0.9
186-12FURMANMERCERServe errKacie Moore+0.6
196-13MERCERFURMANKillAmber Watsonset Morgan Baldridge+0.7
207-13FURMANMERCERKillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+0.6
217-14MERCERFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+0.7
228-14FURMANMERCERKillSammi Bergjansset Taylor Timko+0.5
239-14MERCERMERCERAceBrooklyn Palmeraced Kennedy Seekford+1.0
249-15MERCERFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+0.9
259-16FURMANFURMANServe errFurman+0.9
2610-16FURMANMERCER×3KillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+0.5
2711-16MERCERMERCER×3KillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+0.9
2812-16MERCERMERCER×3AceSarah Frager+1.3
2912-17MERCERFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+1.3
3012-18FURMANFURMANKillKacie Mooreset Morgan Baldridge+1.2
3113-18FURMANMERCERServe errFurman+0.6
3213-19MERCERFURMANKillKacie Mooreset Brooke Scheffler+0.9
3313-20FURMANFURMANAttack errSammi Bergjans+0.7
3414-20FURMANMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+0.3
3514-21MERCERFURMAN×3KillAmber Watsonset Morgan Baldridge+0.5
3614-22FURMANFURMAN×3AceKacie Mooreaced Sarah Frager+0.3
3714-23FURMANFURMAN×3KillTennyson Gormanset Sammi Bergjans+0.1
3815-23FURMANMERCERKillBrooklyn Palmerset Aubri Martin·
3915-24MERCERFURMANBlockedTaylor Timkoblk Morgan Baldridge·
4016-24FURMANMERCERKillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans·
4117-24MERCERMERCERAttack errTennyson Gorman·
4217-25MERCERFURMANKillTennyson Gormanset Morgan Baldridge·
Set 2
10-1MERCERFURMANBlockedBrooklyn Palmerblk Kacie Moore, Ashley Stein+1.3
21-1FURMANMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+1.4
31-2MERCERFURMAN×3Serve errLara Matta+1.3
41-3FURMANFURMAN×3KillKacie Mooreset Morgan Baldridge+1.7
51-4FURMANFURMAN×3AceAshley Steinaced Lara Matta+1.5
62-4FURMANMERCERKillTaylor Timkoset Aubri Martin+1.2
73-4MERCERMERCERKillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+1.7
83-5MERCERFURMANAttack errBrooklyn Palmer+1.3
93-6FURMANFURMANAttack errTaylor Timko+1.6
104-6FURMANMERCER×3Attack errAmber Watson+1.2
115-6MERCERMERCER×3AceBrooklyn Palmeraced Brooke Scheffler+1.8
126-6MERCERMERCER×3AceBrooklyn Palmeraced Brooke Scheffler+2.0
136-7MERCERFURMANKillMorgan Baldridgeset Morgan Baldridge+1.5
147-7FURMANMERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+1.6
158-7MERCERMERCERAttack errAmber Watson+2.2
168-8MERCERFURMANServe errSarah Frager+1.6
178-9FURMANFURMANBlockedLara Mattablk Izzy Castelloe, Tennyson Gorman+2.1
189-9FURMANMERCERBad setMorgan Baldridge+1.7
199-10MERCERFURMAN×3KillAshley Steinset Morgan Baldridge+1.7
209-11FURMANFURMAN×3KillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+2.1
219-12FURMANFURMAN×3Attack errLara Matta+1.9
2210-12FURMANMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+1.4
2311-12MERCERMERCERBlockedAshley Steinblk Bella Pons, Brooklyn Palmer+2.1
2411-13MERCERFURMANServe errMercer+1.7
2512-13FURMANMERCERKillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+1.7
2612-14MERCERFURMANServe errMercer+1.8
2713-14FURMANMERCERKillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+1.8
2813-15MERCERFURMAN×3BlockedJoselynn Sanjurjoblk Kacie Moore+1.9
2913-16FURMANFURMAN×3BlockedBrooklyn Palmerblk Amber Watson, Tennyson Gorman+2.2
3013-17FURMANFURMAN×3KillMorgan Baldridgeset Tennyson Gorman+1.8
3114-17FURMANMERCERServe errFurman+1.1
3214-18MERCERFURMANKillAmber Watsonset Morgan Baldridge+1.4
3315-18FURMANMERCERKillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+1.1
3416-18MERCERMERCERKillLara Mattaset Aubri Martin+2.0
3516-19MERCERFURMANKillMorgan Baldridgeset Ashley Stein+1.9
3617-19FURMANMERCERAttack errIzzy Castelloe+1.6
3717-20MERCERFURMAN×4KillTennyson Gormanset Morgan Baldridge+2.0
3817-21FURMANFURMAN×4Attack errLara Matta+1.9
3917-22FURMANFURMAN×4Attack errBrooklyn Palmer+1.2
4017-23FURMANFURMAN×4KillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+0.6
4118-23FURMANMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+0.2
4218-24MERCERFURMANKillKacie Mooreset Morgan Baldridge+0.3
4319-24FURMANMERCERAttack errAshley Stein+0.1
4420-24MERCERMERCERAttack errKacie Moore+0.2
4520-25MERCERFURMANKillAshley Steinset Morgan Baldridge+0.4
Set 3
11-0FURMANMERCERKillBella Ponsset Sammi Bergjans+0.8
21-1MERCERFURMANKillKacie Mooreset Morgan Baldridge+0.8
32-1FURMANMERCERKillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+0.8
42-2MERCERFURMANKillAshley Steinset Morgan Baldridge+0.8
52-3FURMANFURMANKillAmber Watsonset Morgan Baldridge+1.0
63-3FURMANMERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+0.8
73-4MERCERFURMANServe errBrooke Kaoui+0.8
83-5FURMANFURMANAttack errTaylor Timko+1.0
94-5FURMANMERCERBlockedTennyson Gormanblk Joselynn Sanjurjo, Taylor Timko+0.7
104-6MERCERFURMANAttack errJoselynn Sanjurjo+0.8
114-7FURMANFURMANAttack errJoselynn Sanjurjo+0.9
125-7FURMANMERCER×7Attack errKennedy Seekford+0.7
136-7MERCERMERCER×7BlockedAmber Watsonblk Bella Pons, Lara Matta+1.0
147-7MERCERMERCER×7BlockedTennyson Gormanblk Bella Pons+1.1
158-7MERCERMERCER×7AceAubri Martinaced Ashley Stein+1.2
169-7MERCERMERCER×7KillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+1.3
1710-7MERCERMERCER×7Attack errIzzy Castelloe+1.3
1811-7MERCERMERCER×7AceAubri Martinaced Amber Watson+1.2
1911-8MERCERFURMANKillAmber Watsonset Morgan Baldridge+0.8
2012-8FURMANMERCERKillBella Ponsset Sammi Bergjans+1.0
2112-9MERCERFURMAN×3BlockedJasmine Caltonblk Ashley Stein, Tennyson Gorman+0.8
2212-10FURMANFURMAN×3BlockedBella Ponsblk Kacie Moore, Ashley Stein+1.2
2312-11FURMANFURMAN×3AceKennedy Seekfordaced Lara Matta+1.3
2413-11FURMANMERCERKillSammi Bergjansset Lara Matta+1.1
2514-11MERCERMERCERAttack errKacie Moore+1.4
2614-12MERCERFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+1.0
2714-13FURMANFURMANKillAshley Steinset Morgan Baldridge+1.4
2815-13FURMANMERCERKillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+1.2
2915-14MERCERFURMAN×3KillAshley Steinset Morgan Baldridge+1.1
3015-15FURMANFURMAN×3KillKacie Mooreset Morgan Baldridge+1.5
3115-16FURMANFURMAN×3KillAmber Watsonset Morgan Baldridge+1.6
3216-16FURMANMERCER×4Attack errKacie Moore+1.2
3317-16MERCERMERCER×4AceBrooke Kaouiaced Ashley Stein+1.8
3418-16MERCERMERCER×4KillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+1.8
3519-16MERCERMERCER×4Attack errAshley Stein+1.8
3619-17MERCERFURMANKillKacie Mooreset Morgan Baldridge+1.1
3720-17FURMANMERCERAttack errTennyson Gorman+1.4
3820-18MERCERFURMANKillAmber Watsonset Morgan Baldridge+1.1
3921-18FURMANMERCER×5KillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+1.5
4022-18MERCERMERCER×5AceAubri Martinaced Amber Watson+1.5
4123-18MERCERMERCER×5KillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+0.9
4224-18MERCERMERCER×5KillBella Ponsset Sammi Bergjans+0.4
4325-18MERCERMERCER×5BlockedIzzy Castelloeblk Sammi Bergjans, Bella Pons+0.1
Set 4
10-1MERCERFURMANAttack errLara Matta+1.9
21-1FURMANMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+2.0
31-2MERCERFURMANBlockedBella Ponsblk Ashley Stein+2.0
42-2FURMANMERCERKillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+2.0
52-3MERCERFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+2.0
63-3FURMANMERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+2.1
73-4MERCERFURMANKillMorgan Baldridgeset Brooke Scheffler+2.0
84-4FURMANMERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+2.1
95-4MERCERMERCERAttack errBrooke Scheffler+2.9
105-5MERCERFURMANKillAmber Watsonset Morgan Baldridge+2.2
116-5FURMANMERCER×4KillLara Mattaset Aubri Martin+2.4
127-5MERCERMERCER×4BlockedTennyson Gormanblk Bella Pons, Sammi Bergjans+3.1
138-5MERCERMERCER×4AceAubri Martinaced Ashley Stein+3.2
149-5MERCERMERCER×4KillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+3.1
159-6MERCERFURMANBlockedLara Mattablk Tennyson Gorman+2.0
169-7FURMANFURMANBlockedSammi Bergjansblk Tennyson Gorman+2.9
1710-7FURMANMERCER×8KillSammi Bergjansset Sarah Frager+2.6
1811-7MERCERMERCER×8KillBella Ponsset Ashley Stein+3.2
1912-7MERCERMERCER×8KillJasmine Caltonset Sammi Bergjans+2.9
2013-7MERCERMERCER×8KillLara Mattaset Aubri Martin+2.5
2114-7MERCERMERCER×8AceSammi Bergjansaced Ashley Stein+2.1
2215-7MERCERMERCER×8Attack errAshtan Dodson+1.6
2316-7MERCERMERCER×8KillJasmine Caltonset Sammi Bergjans+1.1
2417-7MERCERMERCER×8KillJasmine Caltonset Aubri Martin+0.7
2517-8MERCERFURMANServe errSammi Bergjans+0.3
2618-8FURMANMERCERKillBella Ponsset Sammi Bergjans+0.5
2718-9MERCERFURMAN×4KillMorgan Baldridgeset Izzy Castelloe+0.3
2818-10FURMANFURMAN×4Attack errTaylor Timko+0.5
2918-11FURMANFURMAN×4Attack errSammi Bergjans+0.8
3018-12FURMANFURMAN×4KillAshley Steinset Morgan Baldridge+1.1
3119-12FURMANMERCERKillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+1.3
3219-13MERCERFURMANKillAshley Steinset Morgan Baldridge+0.8
3320-13FURMANMERCERAttack errAshley Stein+1.2
3420-14MERCERFURMANKillAshley Steinset Morgan Baldridge+0.6
3521-14FURMANMERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+1.1
3621-15MERCERFURMAN×3KillAmber Watsonset Morgan Baldridge+0.5
3721-16FURMANFURMAN×3AceKacie Mooreaced Aubri Martin+1.1
3821-17FURMANFURMAN×3KillAmber Watsonset Morgan Baldridge+1.7
3922-17FURMANMERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+2.2
4023-17MERCERMERCERAttack errAmber Watson+1.5
4123-18MERCERFURMANKillTennyson Gormanset Morgan Baldridge+0.4
4223-19FURMANFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+1.0
4324-19FURMANMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+1.6
4424-20MERCERFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+0.4
4525-20FURMANMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans·
Set 5
10-1MERCERFURMAN×3KillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+6.1
20-2FURMANFURMAN×3Attack errLara Matta+7.6
30-3FURMANFURMAN×3KillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+6.8
41-3FURMANMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+4.9
52-3MERCERMERCERAttack errAshley Stein+7.6
62-4MERCERFURMANBlockedTaylor Timkoblk Izzy Castelloe+6.3
72-5FURMANFURMANKillKacie Mooreset Ashtan Dodson+7.3
83-5FURMANMERCERKillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+5.2
93-6MERCERFURMANAttack errSammi Bergjans+5.8
104-6FURMANMERCERAttack errKacie Moore+5.3
114-7MERCERFURMANKillKacie Mooreset Morgan Baldridge+6.1
124-8FURMANFURMANAttack errSammi Bergjans+6.4
135-8FURMANMERCERKillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+4.0
146-8MERCERMERCERAceSarah Frageraced Brooke Scheffler+7.0
156-9MERCERFURMAN×3KillAmber Watsonset Morgan Baldridge+6.6
166-10FURMANFURMAN×3BlockedJoselynn Sanjurjoblk Rebekah Buchholz, Amber Watson+6.6
176-11FURMANFURMAN×3BlockedLara Mattablk Izzy Castelloe, Rebekah Buchholz+4.5
187-11FURMANMERCER×4KillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+2.1
198-11MERCERMERCER×4AceAubri Martinaced Amber Watson+4.5
209-11MERCERMERCER×4AceAubri Martin+7.1
2110-11MERCERMERCER×4KillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+10.7
2210-12MERCERFURMANKillIzzy Castelloeset Morgan Baldridge+10.5
2311-12FURMANMERCER×3KillSammi Bergjansset Brooke Kaoui+8.8
2412-12MERCERMERCER×3KillSarah Fragerset Morgan Baldridge+16.5
2513-12MERCERMERCER×3KillLara Mattaset Aubri Martin+21.4
2613-13MERCERFURMANServe errSammi Bergjans+15.7
2714-13FURMANMERCERKillSammi Bergjansset Aubri Martin+21.4
2815-13MERCERMERCERKillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+29.8

Score shown after each rally, Mercer first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).