Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 31, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Saint Peter's def. Niagara 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Saint Peter's 65.5% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 31, 12:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Saint Peter's won at Niagara 3-1 (25-22, 25-18, 15-25, 25-16) on Sat, Oct 31, 2026. Saint Peter's' Elina Arsov led with 15 kills, and Kylee Gilbert added 10 digs.

Data through · final Oct 31

Set1234Sets
ST PTR252515253
NIAGRA221825161

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Alondra Fargas served 5 aces, and Saint Peter's needed every one.

The match turned twice; each line shows Saint Peter's's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Saint Peter's at 65%.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · Saint Peter's 4–7 Niagara

    Down 4–7, Saint Peter's scored 8 straight to lead 12–7.

    Saint Peter's 73% → 89%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Saint Peter's 2–3 Niagara

    Saint Peter's scored 8 straight to turn a 2–3 deficit into a 10–3 lead.

    Saint Peter's 79% → 97%

Niagara above 50Saint Peter's belowMax swing 2.9%

Saint Peter'sNiagara

Sideout %
Saint Peter's 48.8·Niagara 43.8
Break %
Saint Peter's 56.2·Niagara 51.2
Hitting
Saint Peter's .267·Niagara .198
Longest run
Saint Peter's 8·Niagara 7

Elina Arsov
6 of her kills came in the stretches above. 15 K, .323, 16.5 points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Niagara above 50 · Saint Peter's below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+2.9% NIAGRArally 171 · set 4

Biggest swing: 2.9% to Niagara — set 4, ST PTR 1-2 NIAGRA. Ace by Katelynn Rottman on Valeria Pagan Munoz. NIAGRA win probability 18% → 20%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

ST PTR 65.5%34.5% NIAGRA

Saint Peter's wins

3-0
20.3%
3-1
25.1%
3-2
20.0%

Niagara wins

3-0
7.0%
3-1
12.3%
3-2
15.2%
ST PTR break %
45.6% vs this opp
NIAGRA break %
42.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Ace by Katelynn Rottman on Valeria Pagan Munoz

    Set 4 · ST PTR 1-2 NIAGRA · NIAGRA 18% → 20%

  2. 02
    Saint Peter'sAce+2.9%

    Saint Peter's ace on Katelynn Rottman

    Set 4 · ST PTR 4-3 NIAGRA · ST PTR 82% → 85%

  3. 03
    Elina ArsovKill+2.8%

    Kill by Elina Arsov (set by Alondra Fargas)

    Set 4 · ST PTR 5-3 NIAGRA · ST PTR 85% → 87%

  4. 04

    Kill by Indira T. Benitez Dumeng (set by Alondra Fargas)

    Set 1 · ST PTR 25-22 NIAGRA · ST PTR 77% → 80%

  5. 05
    Taylor JenkinsAttack error+2.7%

    Attack error by Taylor Jenkins

    Set 4 · ST PTR 1-0 NIAGRA · ST PTR 82% → 85%

  6. 06

    Elina Arsov stuffed by Sole Rancy & Kadence Goolsby

    Set 1 · ST PTR 18-16 NIAGRA · NIAGRA 26% → 28%

  7. 07
    Elina ArsovKill+2.6%

    Kill by Elina Arsov (set by Alondra Fargas)

    Set 4 · ST PTR 6-3 NIAGRA · ST PTR 87% → 90%

  8. 08
    Saint Peter'sAce+2.5%

    Saint Peter's ace

    Set 1 · ST PTR 20-16 NIAGRA · ST PTR 74% → 77%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415531.32310061111.516.5
49328.21410030111.510.5
48111.63620240212.510.5
47116.375110200219
4002.0001721300002
34318.056011130005
46217.23510030212.58.5
4001.0002351500005
4001.000020210002
4001.000010920001
3000–1001000000
2105.200000410001
Team totals5015131.26747125521066990
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414943.11621014102116
49423.2171001022312
48723.0430219500010
48215.40000160010.58.5
4003.0002031400003
4102.500000000423
410318.38910020010.510.5
4001.0003201510002
4001.0002120400002
2102.500000120001
Team totals5125131.198481035612210781

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Saint Peter's vs Niagara

Season series · Saint Peter's leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 8 ST PTR · NIAGRA 7

Set 1

25-22

Longest run 5 ST PTRNIAGRA 4

Set 2

25-18

Longest run 8 ST PTRNIAGRA 6

Set 3

15-25

Longest run 4 ST PTRNIAGRA 7

Set 4

25-16

Longest run 8 ST PTRNIAGRA 3

Bars above the line = Niagara leads, below = Saint Peter's leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Saint Peter's

SlotSideout %Break %
1
53%9/17
30%3/10
2
67%8/12
53%9/17
3
50%7/14
59%10/17
4
67%6/9
65%13/20
5
42%5/12
69%11/16
6
28%5/18
44%4/9
All
49%40/82
56%50/89

Niagara

SlotSideout %Break %
1
57%8/14
56%9/16
2
62%8/13
53%9/17
3
37%7/19
38%5/13
4
30%6/20
33%3/9
5
33%5/15
57%8/14
6
63%5/8
62%8/13
All
44%39/89
51%42/82

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

171 rallies

#ST PTR-NIAGRASrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0NIAGRAST PTR×4KillJulia Whaleyset Meleksu Ozmen+1.7
22-0ST PTRST PTR×4Attack errKarlotta Kattai+2.1
33-0ST PTRST PTR×4Attack errPayton Lee+2.0
44-0ST PTRST PTR×4KillJulia Whaleyset Meleksu Ozmen+1.8
54-1ST PTRNIAGRAKillTaylor Jenkinsset Paisley Ka’ahanui+1.3
65-1NIAGRAST PTRKillVictoria Pruvostset Meleksu Ozmen+1.4
76-1ST PTRST PTRBlockedKarlotta Kattaiblk Victoria Pruvost, Julia Whaley+1.6
86-2ST PTRNIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+1.1
96-3NIAGRANIAGRAAceNoel Perkinsaced Addison Baglio+1.7
107-3NIAGRAST PTRKillElina Arsovset Julia Whaley+1.4
117-4ST PTRNIAGRAServe errJulia Whaley+1.3
128-4NIAGRAST PTR×5Attack errKatelynn Rottman+1.5
139-4ST PTRST PTR×5AceSaint Peter's+1.7
1410-4ST PTRST PTR×5KillKarolina T. Rodriguez Mendezset Alondra Fargas+1.4
1511-4ST PTRST PTR×5Attack errKatelynn Rottman+1.1
1612-4ST PTRST PTR×5Attack errKadence Goolsby+0.8
1712-5ST PTRNIAGRAKillKatelynn Rottmanset Noel Perkins+0.5
1813-5NIAGRAST PTRKillElina Arsovset Indira T. Benitez Dumeng+0.6
1913-6ST PTRNIAGRA×4KillTaylor Jenkinsset Noel Perkins+0.4
2013-7NIAGRANIAGRA×4Attack errIndira T. Benitez Dumeng+0.8
2113-8NIAGRANIAGRA×4Attack errKarolina T. Rodriguez Mendez+1.1
2213-9NIAGRANIAGRA×4AcePaisley Ka’ahanui+1.4
2314-9NIAGRAST PTRAttack errTaylor Jenkins+1.3
2414-10ST PTRNIAGRAKillKatelynn Rottmanset Paisley Ka’ahanui+1.1
2515-10NIAGRAST PTR×3KillJulia Whaleyset Alondra Fargas+1.3
2616-10ST PTRST PTR×3AceSaint Peter's+1.3
2717-10ST PTRST PTR×3BlockedKarlotta Kattaiblk Julia Whaley+0.9
2817-11ST PTRNIAGRAKillPayton Leeset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.5
2917-12NIAGRANIAGRAKillTaylor Jenkinsset Meleksu Ozmen+0.9
3018-12NIAGRAST PTRKillVictoria Pruvostset Meleksu Ozmen+1.0
3118-13ST PTRNIAGRA×4KillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.7
3218-14NIAGRANIAGRA×4BlockedVictoria Pruvostblk Karlotta Kattai, Sole Rancy+1.3
3318-15NIAGRANIAGRA×4Attack errElina Arsov+1.9
3418-16NIAGRANIAGRA×4BlockedElina Arsovblk Sole Rancy, Kadence Goolsby+2.6
3519-16NIAGRAST PTR×3BlockedKarlotta Kattaiblk Victoria Pruvost+2.4
3620-16ST PTRST PTR×3AceSaint Peter's+2.5
3721-16ST PTRST PTR×3Attack errKarlotta Kattai+1.7
3821-17ST PTRNIAGRAKillKadence Goolsbyset Noel Perkins+0.8
3921-18NIAGRANIAGRAKillKadence Goolsbyset Noel Perkins+1.6
4022-18NIAGRAST PTRKillKarolina T. Rodriguez Mendezset Meleksu Ozmen+1.9
4122-19ST PTRNIAGRAKillKadence Goolsbyset Noel Perkins+1.1
4223-19NIAGRAST PTRKillElina Arsovset Alondra Fargas+1.8
4323-20ST PTRNIAGRAKillTaylor Jenkinsset Noel Perkins+0.9
4424-20NIAGRAST PTRKillAddison Baglioset Alondra Fargas+1.6
4524-21ST PTRNIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.5
4624-22NIAGRANIAGRAKillPayton Leeset Paisley Ka’ahanui+1.6
4725-22NIAGRAST PTRKillIndira T. Benitez Dumengset Alondra Fargas+2.7
Set 2
10-1ST PTRNIAGRA×5KillPayton Leeset Karlotta Kattai+1.5
20-2NIAGRANIAGRA×5KillKaitlyn Doyleset Payton Lee+2.1
30-3NIAGRANIAGRA×5AcePaisley Ka’ahanui+2.1
40-4NIAGRANIAGRA×5KillPayton Leeset Karlotta Kattai+2.0
50-5NIAGRANIAGRA×5KillTaylor Jenkinsset Paisley Ka’ahanui+1.9
61-5NIAGRAST PTR×3Serve errPaisley Ka’ahanui+1.3
72-5ST PTRST PTR×3AceSaint Peter'saced Ashley Moreland+1.8
83-5ST PTRST PTR×3KillElina Arsovset Meleksu Ozmen+2.0
93-6ST PTRNIAGRAServe errAddison Baglio+1.7
104-6NIAGRAST PTRKillVictoria Pruvostset Meleksu Ozmen+1.5
114-7ST PTRNIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Ashley Moreland+1.8
125-7NIAGRAST PTR×8Serve errTaylor Jenkins+1.6
136-7ST PTRST PTR×8BlockedPayton Leeblk Elina Arsov, Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez+2.2
147-7ST PTRST PTR×8KillElina Arsovset Alondra Fargas+2.3
158-7ST PTRST PTR×8AceSaint Peter'saced Kaitlyn Doyle+2.3
169-7ST PTRST PTR×8KillElina Arsovset Alondra Fargas+2.2
1710-7ST PTRST PTR×8Attack errKarlotta Kattai+2.0
1811-7ST PTRST PTR×8BlockedPayton Leeblk Elina Arsov+1.8
1912-7ST PTRST PTR×8KillIndira T. Benitez Dumengset Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez+1.5
2012-8ST PTRNIAGRAAttack errElina Arsov+1.0
2113-8NIAGRAST PTR×8KillElina Arsovset Alondra Fargas+1.1
2214-8ST PTRST PTR×8AceSaint Peter'saced Kaitlyn Doyle+1.2
2315-8ST PTRST PTR×8KillKarolina T. Rodriguez Mendez+0.9
2416-8ST PTRST PTR×8Attack errKarlotta Kattai+0.6
2517-8ST PTRST PTR×8BlockedKadence Goolsbyblk Indira T. Benitez Dumeng+0.4
2618-8ST PTRST PTR×8AceSaint Peter'saced Katelynn Rottman+0.2
2719-8ST PTRST PTR×8KillAddison Baglioset Alondra Fargas+0.1
2820-8ST PTRST PTR×8KillIndira T. Benitez Dumengset Alondra Fargas·
2920-9ST PTRNIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Noel Perkins·
3020-10NIAGRANIAGRAKillKadence Goolsbyset Noel Perkins·
3121-10NIAGRAST PTRKillKarolina T. Rodriguez Mendezset Alondra Fargas·
3221-11ST PTRNIAGRA×6KillKadence Goolsbyset Noel Perkins·
3321-12NIAGRANIAGRA×6Attack errAddison Baglio·
3421-13NIAGRANIAGRA×6AceAshley Morelandaced Alicia Valladares+0.1
3521-14NIAGRANIAGRA×6AceAshley Morelandaced Addison Baglio+0.2
3621-15NIAGRANIAGRA×6KillKatelynn Rottmanset Noel Perkins+0.3
3721-16NIAGRANIAGRA×6KillKadence Goolsbyset Ashley Moreland+0.5
3822-16NIAGRAST PTRKillJulia Whaleyset Alondra Fargas+0.6
3922-17ST PTRNIAGRAServe errMeleksu Ozmen+0.3
4023-17NIAGRAST PTRKillAddison Baglioset Victoria Pruvost+0.5
4124-17ST PTRST PTRBlockedKatelynn Rottmanblk Julia Whaley+0.2
4224-18ST PTRNIAGRAKillPayton Leeset Ashley Moreland·
4325-18NIAGRAST PTRKillVictoria Pruvostset Julia Whaley+0.1
Set 3
10-1NIAGRANIAGRAKillTaylor Jenkinsset Paisley Ka’ahanui+1.2
20-2NIAGRANIAGRAAttack errVictoria Pruvost+1.2
31-2NIAGRAST PTRKillVictoria Pruvostset Meleksu Ozmen+0.9
41-3ST PTRNIAGRABlockedVictoria Pruvostblk Sole Rancy, Payton Lee+1.0
51-4NIAGRANIAGRAAceNoel Perkinsaced Briana Tuten+1.3
62-4NIAGRAST PTRKillElina Arsovset Meleksu Ozmen+0.9
72-5ST PTRNIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Noel Perkins+1.0
83-5NIAGRAST PTRKillKarolina T. Rodriguez Mendezset Meleksu Ozmen+0.9
93-6ST PTRNIAGRAKillKadence Goolsbyset Noel Perkins+1.0
104-6NIAGRAST PTRKillKarolina T. Rodriguez Mendezset Alondra Fargas+0.9
114-7ST PTRNIAGRA×7KillKatelynn Rottmanset Noel Perkins+1.0
124-8NIAGRANIAGRA×7KillKatelynn Rottman+1.3
134-9NIAGRANIAGRA×7BlockedAddison Baglioblk Payton Lee+1.2
144-10NIAGRANIAGRA×7KillPayton Leeset Paisley Ka’ahanui+1.1
154-11NIAGRANIAGRA×7Attack errIndira T. Benitez Dumeng+0.9
164-12NIAGRANIAGRA×7KillKatelynn Rottmanset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.7
174-13NIAGRANIAGRA×7BlockedAddison Baglioblk Payton Lee+0.5
185-13NIAGRAST PTR×4BlockedKatelynn Rottmanblk Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez, Indira T. Benitez Dumeng+0.3
196-13ST PTRST PTR×4AceSaint Peter'saced Katelynn Rottman+0.5
207-13ST PTRST PTR×4KillIndira T. Benitez Dumengset Elina Arsov+0.6
218-13ST PTRST PTR×4KillAddison Baglioset Alondra Fargas+0.8
228-14ST PTRNIAGRA×5KillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.8
238-15NIAGRANIAGRA×5AceKatelynn Rottmanaced Addison Baglio+0.8
248-16NIAGRANIAGRA×5KillTaylor Jenkins+0.6
258-17NIAGRANIAGRA×5KillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.4
268-18NIAGRANIAGRA×5BlockedJulia Whaleyblk Taylor Jenkins, Payton Lee+0.3
279-18NIAGRAST PTR×3Attack errPayton Lee+0.1
2810-18ST PTRST PTR×3KillJulia Whaleyset Meleksu Ozmen+0.2
2911-18ST PTRST PTR×3KillVictoria Pruvostset Meleksu Ozmen+0.3
3011-19ST PTRNIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.4
3112-19NIAGRAST PTRKillJulia Whaleyset Meleksu Ozmen+0.2
3212-20ST PTRNIAGRA×3KillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.3
3312-21NIAGRANIAGRA×3KillKarlotta Kattaiset Noel Perkins+0.2
3412-22NIAGRANIAGRA×3Attack errElina Arsov+0.1
3513-22NIAGRAST PTRKillVictoria Pruvostset Meleksu Ozmen·
3613-23ST PTRNIAGRAServe errJulia Whaley·
3713-24NIAGRANIAGRAKillKadence Goolsbyset Noel Perkins·
3814-24NIAGRAST PTRKillElina Arsovset Meleksu Ozmen·
3915-24ST PTRST PTRKillElina Arsovset Alondra Fargas·
4015-25ST PTRNIAGRAKillKatelynn Rottmanset Noel Perkins·
Set 4
11-0ST PTRST PTRAttack errTaylor Jenkins+2.7
21-1ST PTRNIAGRAKillPayton Leeset Paisley Ka’ahanui+2.1
31-2NIAGRANIAGRAAceKatelynn Rottmanaced Valeria Pagan Munoz+2.9
42-2NIAGRAST PTRKillVictoria Pruvostset Meleksu Ozmen+2.1
52-3ST PTRNIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+2.3
63-3NIAGRAST PTR×8KillVictoria Pruvostset Meleksu Ozmen+2.2
74-3ST PTRST PTR×8AceSaint Peter'saced Katelynn Rottman+2.9
85-3ST PTRST PTR×8KillElina Arsovset Alondra Fargas+2.8
96-3ST PTRST PTR×8KillElina Arsovset Alondra Fargas+2.6
107-3ST PTRST PTR×8KillElina Arsovset Alondra Fargas+2.3
118-3ST PTRST PTR×8BlockedKarlotta Kattaiblk Indira T. Benitez Dumeng+2.0
129-3ST PTRST PTR×8KillElina Arsovset Kylee Gilbert+1.7
1310-3ST PTRST PTR×8AceSaint Peter'saced Katelynn Rottman+1.3
1410-4ST PTRNIAGRA×3KillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.8
1510-5NIAGRANIAGRA×3BlockedElina Arsovblk Karlotta Kattai, Sole Rancy+1.4
1610-6NIAGRANIAGRA×3KillKarlotta Kattaiset Kadence Goolsby+1.8
1711-6NIAGRAST PTR×4KillIndira T. Benitez Dumengset Alondra Fargas+1.6
1812-6ST PTRST PTR×4Attack errKadence Goolsby+1.7
1913-6ST PTRST PTR×4KillIndira T. Benitez Dumengset Alondra Fargas+1.3
2014-6ST PTRST PTR×4KillValeria Pagan Munozset Alondra Fargas+0.9
2114-7ST PTRNIAGRA×3KillKadence Goolsbyset Noel Perkins+0.5
2214-8NIAGRANIAGRA×3KillSole Rancyset Noel Perkins+0.9
2314-9NIAGRANIAGRA×3AceKarlotta Kattaiaced Elina Arsov+1.3
2415-9NIAGRAST PTRAttack errKatelynn Rottman+1.2
2515-10ST PTRNIAGRAKillKatelynn Rottmanset Noel Perkins+1.0
2616-10NIAGRAST PTRKillJulia Whaleyset Alondra Fargas+1.2
2717-10ST PTRST PTRAceSaint Peter'saced Katelynn Rottman+1.1
2817-11ST PTRNIAGRAKillTaylor Jenkinsset Noel Perkins+0.6
2917-12NIAGRANIAGRAAcePaisley Ka’ahanuiaced Briana Tuten+1.1
3018-12NIAGRAST PTRKillJulia Whaleyset Meleksu Ozmen+1.2
3118-13ST PTRNIAGRAKillPayton Leeset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.8
3219-13NIAGRAST PTRServe errKatelynn Rottman+1.1
3320-13ST PTRST PTRAttack errKarlotta Kattai+0.9
3420-14ST PTRNIAGRAKillPayton Leeset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.4
3521-14NIAGRAST PTR×3KillElina Arsovset Meleksu Ozmen+0.6
3622-14ST PTRST PTR×3AceSaint Peter'saced Karlotta Kattai+0.4
3723-14ST PTRST PTR×3Attack errKatelynn Rottman+0.1
3823-15ST PTRNIAGRAServe errAlondra Fargas·
3924-15NIAGRAST PTRKillKarolina T. Rodriguez Mendezset Alondra Fargas+0.1
4024-16ST PTRNIAGRAKillKadence Goolsbyset Noel Perkins·
4125-16NIAGRAST PTRAttack errKatelynn Rottman·

Score shown after each rally, Saint Peter's first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).