FinalFri, Oct 2, 2026

Saint Peter's def. Niagara 3–0

RallyIQ pre-match: Saint Peter's 74.4% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 2, 4:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Saint Peter's beat visiting Niagara 3-0 (25-14, 25-19, 35-33) on Fri, Oct 2, 2026. Valeria Pagan Munoz led Saint Peter's with 13 kills; Niagara's Karlotta Kattai had a match-high 14.

Data through · final Oct 2

Set123Sets
NIAGRA1419330
ST PTR2525353

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Saint Peter's broke it open with a 7–0 run in the second set.

No single rally moved win probability more than 3.9 points. Niagara peaked at 24% in Set 1. These are the stats that built the gap. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Saint Peter's at 74%.

NiagaraSaint Peter's
  • Break %+14.6 pts
    32.447.0

    Points won on own serve: 39 of 83 vs 22 of 68. Niagara sided out 53.0% of the time.

  • Hitting+.204
    .105.309

    50 K / 16 E against 37 K / 25 E.

  • Longest run+1
    67

    Saint Peter's scored 7 straight in the second set to turn a 7–8 deficit into a 14–8 lead. The set finished 25–19.

Saint Peter's above 50Niagara belowMax swing 3.9%

NiagaraSaint Peter's

Aces
Niagara 4·Saint Peter's 4
Serve err
Niagara 4·Saint Peter's 9
Blocks
Niagara 8·Saint Peter's 41 BS · 14 BA vs 1 BS · 6 BA
Digs
Niagara 36·Saint Peter's 42

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Saint Peter's above 50 · Niagara below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+3.9% NIAGRArally 151 · set 3

Biggest swing: 3.9% to Niagara — set 3, NIAGRA 25-24 ST PTR. Attack error by Valeria Pagan Munoz. ST PTR win probability 94% → 90%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NIAGRA 21.8%78.2% ST PTR

Niagara wins

3-0
3.7%
3-1
7.3%
3-2
10.8%

Saint Peter's wins

3-0
29.8%
3-1
29.7%
3-2
18.7%
NIAGRA break %
41.1% vs this opp
ST PTR break %
47.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Valeria Pagan MunozAttack error+3.9%

    Attack error by Valeria Pagan Munoz

    Set 3 · NIAGRA 25-24 ST PTR · NIAGRA 6% → 10%

  2. 02
    Addison BaglioAttack error+3.9%

    Attack error by Addison Baglio

    Set 3 · NIAGRA 29-28 ST PTR · NIAGRA 6% → 10%

  3. 03
    Valeria Pagan MunozAttack error+3.9%

    Attack error by Valeria Pagan Munoz

    Set 3 · NIAGRA 31-30 ST PTR · NIAGRA 6% → 10%

  4. 04

    Kill by Addison Baglio (set by Alondra Fargas)

    Set 3 · NIAGRA 25-26 ST PTR · ST PTR 93% → 97%

  5. 05

    Kill by Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez (set by Alondra Fargas)

    Set 3 · NIAGRA 29-30 ST PTR · ST PTR 93% → 97%

  6. 06
    Karlotta KattaiAttack error+3.6%

    Attack error by Karlotta Kattai

    Set 3 · NIAGRA 31-32 ST PTR · ST PTR 93% → 97%

  7. 07
    NiagaraAce+3.5%

    Niagara ace on Drew Leonardis

    Set 3 · NIAGRA 24-24 ST PTR · NIAGRA 2% → 6%

  8. 08
    Saint Peter'sAce+3.2%

    Saint Peter's ace on Kaitlyn Doyle

    Set 3 · NIAGRA 33-35 ST PTR · ST PTR 97% → 100%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
314637.2161113100015
36312.250000000639
35616-.06300020031.56.5
3012-.5001920700002
23313.000000200003
1001.000000000000
33411-.09110010031.54.5
33214.07100123010.53.5
3000–910300001
3002.0002011500000
2203.66710110111.53.5
2001.000000000000
1102.500000000001
1000–000000000
Team totals3725114.1053344364114866
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
313527.2961109100014
38121.3331002012210
39220.350000510009
3519.44400000010.55.5
3002.0002321900002
2116.000100400001
311214.64310000010.511.5
3000–402500000
2000–012100001
2001.000903300000
2000–100020000
1238-.125001000002
11011.000000000212
1011-1.000000000000
1000–100200000
1000–700200000
Team totals5016110.309494942416485

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Niagara vs Saint Peter's

Season series · Saint Peter's leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 NIAGRA · ST PTR 7

Set 1

14-25

Longest run 3 NIAGRAST PTR 6

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 3 NIAGRAST PTR 7

Set 3

33-35

Longest run 6 NIAGRAST PTR 4

Bars above the line = Saint Peter's leads, below = Niagara leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Niagara

SlotSideout %Break %
1
41%9/22
38%5/13
2
62%8/13
44%7/16
3
53%8/15
0%0/8
4
70%7/10
43%6/14
5
55%6/11
22%2/9
6
50%6/12
25%2/8
All
53%44/83
32%22/68

Saint Peter's

SlotSideout %Break %
1
56%9/16
61%11/18
2
67%8/12
56%10/18
3
100%8/8
33%4/12
4
53%8/15
38%5/13
5
78%7/9
30%3/10
6
75%6/8
50%6/12
All
68%46/68
47%39/83

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

151 rallies

#NIAGRA-ST PTRSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1NIAGRAST PTR×6KillAddison Baglioset Alondra Fargas+1.4
20-2ST PTRST PTR×6KillValeria Pagan Munozset Alondra Fargas+1.8
30-3ST PTRST PTR×6AceSaint Peter'saced Karlotta Kattai+1.7
40-4ST PTRST PTR×6KillValeria Pagan Munozset Indira T. Benitez Dumeng+1.5
50-5ST PTRST PTR×6Attack errPayton Lee+1.3
60-6ST PTRST PTR×6Attack errPayton Lee+1.0
71-6ST PTRNIAGRA×3Serve errSaint Peter's+0.7
82-6NIAGRANIAGRA×3KillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+1.1
93-6NIAGRANIAGRA×3KillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+1.4
103-7NIAGRAST PTRAttack errKarlotta Kattai+1.1
114-7ST PTRNIAGRAAttack errIndira T. Benitez Dumeng+1.0
124-8NIAGRAST PTRKillValeria Pagan Munozset Alondra Fargas+1.1
134-9ST PTRST PTRAttack errMeleksu Ozmen+1.3
145-9ST PTRNIAGRAKillPayton Leeset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.8
155-10NIAGRAST PTRKillVictoria Pruvostset Meleksu Ozmen+1.0
166-10ST PTRNIAGRAKillKatelynn Rottmanset Kadence Goolsby+0.8
177-10NIAGRANIAGRAAceNiagaraaced Addison Baglio+1.5
187-11NIAGRAST PTR×3KillVictoria Pruvostset Meleksu Ozmen+1.2
197-12ST PTRST PTR×3KillVictoria Pruvostset Meleksu Ozmen+1.4
207-13ST PTRST PTR×3KillVictoria Pruvostset Ioanna Ververaki+1.1
218-13ST PTRNIAGRAServe errSaint Peter's+0.6
228-14NIAGRAST PTR×3BlockedKarlotta Kattaiblk Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez+0.7
238-15ST PTRST PTR×3KillAddison Baglioset Ioanna Ververaki+0.7
248-16ST PTRST PTR×3KillKarolina T. Rodriguez Mendezset Alondra Fargas+0.5
259-16ST PTRNIAGRAServe errSaint Peter's+0.2
269-17NIAGRAST PTRAttack errKatelynn Rottman+0.3
2710-17ST PTRNIAGRAServe errSaint Peter's+0.2
2810-18NIAGRAST PTRKillKarolina T. Rodriguez Mendezset Alondra Fargas+0.3
2910-19ST PTRST PTRAttack errKarlotta Kattai+0.2
3011-19ST PTRNIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.1
3111-20NIAGRAST PTRServe errNiagara+0.1
3211-21ST PTRST PTRAttack errKarlotta Kattai+0.1
3312-21ST PTRNIAGRAServe errSaint Peter's·
3413-21NIAGRANIAGRABlockedVictoria Pruvostblk Jakayla Brown, Kadence Goolsby+0.1
3513-22NIAGRAST PTRKillVictoria Pruvostset Meleksu Ozmen+0.1
3613-23ST PTRST PTRBlockedKadence Goolsbyblk Victoria Pruvost, Julia Whaley·
3714-23ST PTRNIAGRABlockedVictoria Pruvostblk Kadence Goolsby, Jakayla Brown·
3814-24NIAGRAST PTRKillJulia Whaleyset Meleksu Ozmen·
3914-25ST PTRST PTRAttack errKatelynn Rottman·
Set 2
11-0ST PTRNIAGRAKillJakayla Brownset Paisley Ka’ahanui+1.2
22-0NIAGRANIAGRABlockedAddison Baglioblk Jakayla Brown, Payton Lee+1.8
32-1NIAGRAST PTRKillKarolina T. Rodriguez Mendezset Alondra Fargas+1.2
43-1ST PTRNIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+1.3
53-2NIAGRAST PTR×3KillValeria Pagan Munozset Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez+1.2
63-3ST PTRST PTR×3Attack errPaisley Ka’ahanui+1.7
73-4ST PTRST PTR×3Bad setKarlotta Kattai+1.7
84-4ST PTRNIAGRAKillPayton Leeset Paisley Ka’ahanui+1.2
94-5NIAGRAST PTRKillValeria Pagan Munozset Alondra Fargas+1.2
105-5ST PTRNIAGRAServe errSaint Peter's+1.3
115-6NIAGRAST PTRServe errNiagara+1.2
126-6ST PTRNIAGRAKillKatelynn Rottmanset Noel Perkins+1.3
136-7NIAGRAST PTRKillVictoria Pruvostset Meleksu Ozmen+1.3
147-7ST PTRNIAGRAKillKatelynn Rottmanset Noel Perkins+1.4
158-7NIAGRANIAGRAAceNiagaraaced Valeria Pagan Munoz+2.0
168-8NIAGRAST PTR×7KillVictoria Pruvostset Meleksu Ozmen+1.4
178-9ST PTRST PTR×7KillAddison Baglioset Kylee Gilbert+1.9
188-10ST PTRST PTR×7BlockedPayton Leeblk Natasha Tejada, Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez+1.8
198-11ST PTRST PTR×7BlockedPayton Leeblk Natasha Tejada, Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez+1.6
208-12ST PTRST PTR×7Attack errKatelynn Rottman+1.4
218-13ST PTRST PTR×7Attack errKaitlyn Doyle+1.1
228-14ST PTRST PTR×7AceSaint Peter'saced Kaitlyn Doyle+0.8
239-14ST PTRNIAGRA×3KillLeah Allenset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.5
2410-14NIAGRANIAGRA×3KillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.9
2511-14NIAGRANIAGRA×3KillKarlotta Kattai+1.2
2611-15NIAGRAST PTRKillAddison Baglioset Ioanna Ververaki+1.0
2711-16ST PTRST PTRKillValeria Pagan Munozset Alondra Fargas+1.1
2812-16ST PTRNIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.6
2912-17NIAGRAST PTRKillKarolina T. Rodriguez Mendezset Alondra Fargas+0.8
3013-17ST PTRNIAGRAKillNatasa Ljubicicset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.6
3113-18NIAGRAST PTRKillNatasha Tejadaset Alondra Fargas+0.8
3214-18ST PTRNIAGRAServe errSaint Peter's+0.6
3315-18NIAGRANIAGRAAttack errJulia Whaley+1.2
3415-19NIAGRAST PTRKillVictoria Pruvostset Ioanna Ververaki+1.1
3516-19ST PTRNIAGRAKillNatasa Ljubicicset Noel Perkins+0.9
3617-19NIAGRANIAGRAKillJakayla Brownset Julia Whaley+1.7
3717-20NIAGRAST PTRServe errNiagara+1.6
3817-21ST PTRST PTRKillAddison Baglioset Meleksu Ozmen+1.6
3918-21ST PTRNIAGRAKillKaitlyn Doyleset Karlotta Kattai+0.8
4018-22NIAGRAST PTRKillVictoria Pruvostset Meleksu Ozmen+1.1
4119-22ST PTRNIAGRAKillJakayla Brownset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.7
4219-23NIAGRAST PTR×3KillKarolina T. Rodriguez Mendezset Alondra Fargas+1.1
4319-24ST PTRST PTR×3Attack errJakayla Brown+0.6
4419-25ST PTRST PTR×3Attack errJakayla Brown+0.1
Set 3
11-0NIAGRANIAGRAAceNiagaraaced Drew Leonardis+0.9
21-1NIAGRAST PTRAttack errPayton Lee+0.6
32-1ST PTRNIAGRAAttack errMarkela Tsagkopoulou+0.7
43-1NIAGRANIAGRAKillPayton Leeset Paisley Ka’ahanui+1.0
53-2NIAGRAST PTRKillValeria Pagan Munozset Alondra Fargas+0.7
64-2ST PTRNIAGRAKillPayton Leeset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.8
74-3NIAGRAST PTRServe errNiagara+0.7
85-3ST PTRNIAGRAAttack errValeria Pagan Munoz+0.8
95-4NIAGRAST PTRKillJulia Whaleyset Zumra Yavuz+0.7
106-4ST PTRNIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Noel Perkins+0.8
116-5NIAGRAST PTRKillVictoria Pruvostset Zumra Yavuz+0.7
126-6ST PTRST PTRAttack errKadence Goolsby+1.0
137-6ST PTRNIAGRAKillKadence Goolsbyset Noel Perkins+0.8
148-6NIAGRANIAGRABlockedMarkela Tsagkopouloublk Kadence Goolsby, Jakayla Brown+1.2
158-7NIAGRAST PTR×4KillKarolina T. Rodriguez Mendezset Zumra Yavuz+0.8
168-8ST PTRST PTR×4AceSaint Peter'saced Kaitlyn Doyle+1.1
178-9ST PTRST PTR×4Attack errKadence Goolsby+1.1
188-10ST PTRST PTR×4Attack errKaitlyn Doyle+1.0
199-10ST PTRNIAGRAKillJakayla Brownset Noel Perkins+0.7
209-11NIAGRAST PTRKillMarkela Tsagkopoulouset Alondra Fargas+0.7
219-12ST PTRST PTRAttack errJakayla Brown+0.9
2210-12ST PTRNIAGRAServe errSaint Peter's+0.6
2310-13NIAGRAST PTRKillValeria Pagan Munozset Alondra Fargas+0.7
2411-13ST PTRNIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.6
2511-14NIAGRAST PTR×4KillJulia Whaleyset Alondra Fargas+0.7
2611-15ST PTRST PTR×4Attack errPayton Lee+0.8
2711-16ST PTRST PTR×4KillValeria Pagan Munozset Zumra Yavuz+0.6
2811-17ST PTRST PTR×4KillValeria Pagan Munozset Victoria Pruvost+0.4
2912-17ST PTRNIAGRABlockedValeria Pagan Munozblk Payton Lee, Natasa Ljubicic+0.2
3012-18NIAGRAST PTRKillJulia Whaleyset Zumra Yavuz+0.3
3113-18ST PTRNIAGRAKillKadence Goolsbyset Noel Perkins+0.2
3213-19NIAGRAST PTRKillVictoria Pruvostset Zumra Yavuz+0.3
3313-20ST PTRST PTRAttack errKadence Goolsby+0.2
3414-20ST PTRNIAGRAServe errSaint Peter's+0.1
3514-21NIAGRAST PTRKillKarolina T. Rodriguez Mendezset Zumra Yavuz+0.1
3615-21ST PTRNIAGRA×3KillKaitlyn Doyleset Noel Perkins+0.1
3716-21NIAGRANIAGRA×3KillKaitlyn Doyleset Ashley Moreland+0.2
3817-21NIAGRANIAGRA×3BlockedMarkela Tsagkopouloublk Jakayla Brown, Payton Lee+0.3
3917-22NIAGRAST PTRKillMarkela Tsagkopoulouset Alondra Fargas+0.4
4018-22ST PTRNIAGRABlockedElina Arsovblk Jakayla Brown, Kaitlyn Doyle+0.2
4118-23NIAGRAST PTRKillIndira T. Benitez Dumengset Alondra Fargas+0.3
4219-23ST PTRNIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.1
4319-24NIAGRAST PTRAttack errKarlotta Kattai+0.3
4420-24ST PTRNIAGRA×6KillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.1
4521-24NIAGRANIAGRA×6KillKarlotta Kattaiset Ashley Moreland+0.2
4622-24NIAGRANIAGRA×6KillKadence Goolsbyset Natasa Ljubicic+0.5
4723-24NIAGRANIAGRA×6Attack errValeria Pagan Munoz+1.4
4824-24NIAGRANIAGRA×6AceNiagaraaced Drew Leonardis+3.5
4925-24NIAGRANIAGRA×6Attack errValeria Pagan Munoz+3.9
5025-25NIAGRAST PTRKillJulia Whaleyset Alondra Fargas+2.9
5125-26ST PTRST PTRKillAddison Baglioset Alondra Fargas+3.6
5226-26ST PTRNIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Noel Perkins+2.6
5326-27NIAGRAST PTRKillAddison Baglioset Alondra Fargas+2.6
5427-27ST PTRNIAGRABlockedKarolina T. Rodriguez Mendezblk Natasa Ljubicic+2.6
5527-28NIAGRAST PTRKillAddison Baglioset Alondra Fargas+2.6
5628-28ST PTRNIAGRAKillJakayla Brownset Karlotta Kattai+2.6
5729-28NIAGRANIAGRAAttack errAddison Baglio+3.9
5829-29NIAGRAST PTRKillAddison Baglioset Valeria Pagan Munoz+2.9
5929-30ST PTRST PTRKillKarolina T. Rodriguez Mendezset Alondra Fargas+3.6
6030-30ST PTRNIAGRAKillJakayla Brownset Paisley Ka’ahanui+2.6
6131-30NIAGRANIAGRAAttack errValeria Pagan Munoz+3.9
6231-31NIAGRAST PTRKillValeria Pagan Munozset Alondra Fargas+2.9
6331-32ST PTRST PTRAttack errKarlotta Kattai+3.6
6432-32ST PTRNIAGRAKillPayton Leeset Paisley Ka’ahanui+2.6
6532-33NIAGRAST PTRKillValeria Pagan Munozset Drew Leonardis+2.6
6633-33ST PTRNIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+2.6
6733-34NIAGRAST PTRKillValeria Pagan Munozset Alondra Fargas+2.6
6833-35ST PTRST PTRAceSaint Peter'saced Kaitlyn Doyle+3.2

Score shown after each rally, Niagara first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).