Utah State vs Fresno State Prediction

ScheduledTue, Nov 17, 2026YouTube

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Utah St. (6-16) at Fresno St. (7-16), Tue, Nov 17, 2026, 8:00 PM CT on YouTube. RallyIQ gives Utah St. a 74% chance to win. In their only meeting this season, Utah St. won 3-1 on Oct 1.

Data through Nov 10, 6:25 PM CT

Match prediction

UT ST 73.5%26.5% FRESNO

Utah St. wins

3-0

25.9%

3-1

28.2%

3-2

19.5%

Fresno St. wins

3-0

4.8%

3-1

9.1%

3-2

12.5%

UT ST break %: 44.9% vs this opp
FRESNO break %: 40.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season so far.

Once the first serve goes up, this becomes a live win-probability chart that updates point by point.