Texas State vs Fresno State Prediction

ScheduledThu, Nov 19, 2026Pac-12 YouTubeYouTube

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Texas St. (8-16) at Fresno St. (7-16), Thu, Nov 19, 2026, 8:00 PM CT on Pac-12 YouTube and YouTube. RallyIQ gives Texas St. a 53% chance to win. In their only meeting this season, Texas St. won 3-2 on Nov 7.

Data through Nov 10, 6:25 PM CT

Match prediction

TX ST 52.7%47.3% FRESNO

Texas St. wins

3-0

13.7%

3-1

19.9%

3-2

19.2%

Fresno St. wins

3-0

11.4%

3-1

17.6%

3-2

18.3%

TX ST break %: 43.9% vs this opp
FRESNO break %: 43.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season so far.

Once the first serve goes up, this becomes a live win-probability chart that updates point by point.