Final · 4 setsThu, Oct 29, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Santa Clara def. Denver 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Santa Clara 62.1% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 29, 6:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Santa Clara won at Denver 3-1 (25-21, 24-26, 25-18, 27-25) on Thu, Oct 29, 2026. Santa Clara's Cate Shanahan led with 21 kills, and Lexi Trapani added 15 digs.

Data through · final Oct 29

Set1234Sets
STCLAR252425273
DENVER212618251

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Macy Hinshaw had 54 assists, and Santa Clara outlasted Denver.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are Santa Clara's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Santa Clara at 62%.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · Santa Clara 24–22 Denver

    Denver won 4 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 26–24 and level the match at 1–1.

    Santa Clara 90% → 59%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Santa Clara 16–19 Denver

    Santa Clara scored 6 straight to turn a 16–19 deficit into a 22–19 lead.

    Santa Clara 65% → 96%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · Santa Clara 24–25 Denver

    3 straight Santa Clara points turned a 24–25 deficit into a 27–25 lead.

    Santa Clara 68% → >99%

Denver above 50Santa Clara belowMax swing 12.3%

Santa ClaraDenver

Sideout %
Santa Clara 62.6·Denver 56.0
Break %
Santa Clara 44.0·Denver 37.4
Hitting
Santa Clara .313·Denver .221
Longest run
Santa Clara 6·Denver 5

Cate Shanahan
21 kills on .309, 25.5 points; 3 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Denver above 50 · Santa Clara below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+12.3% DENVERrally 191 · set 4

Biggest swing: 12.3% to Denver — set 4, STCLAR 23-24 DENVER. Kill by Jamia Johnson (set by Lily Van Hal). DENVER win probability 19% → 32%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

STCLAR 63.8%36.2% DENVER

Santa Clara wins

3-0
19.3%
3-1
24.4%
3-2
20.0%

Denver wins

3-0
7.5%
3-1
13.0%
3-2
15.7%
STCLAR break %
41.4% vs this opp
DENVER break %
38.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Jamia JohnsonKill+12.3%

    Kill by Jamia Johnson (set by Lily Van Hal)

    Set 4 · STCLAR 23-24 DENVER · DENVER 19% → 32%

  2. 02
    Cate ShanahanAce+11.9%

    Ace by Cate Shanahan on Madison Winkler

    Set 4 · STCLAR 26-25 DENVER · STCLAR 77% → 89%

  3. 03
    Morgan HayesKill+11.2%

    Kill by Morgan Hayes (set by Macy Hinshaw)

    Set 4 · STCLAR 27-25 DENVER · STCLAR 89% → 100%

  4. 04

    Kill by Alicia Thibodeau (set by Ilayda Eren)

    Set 2 · STCLAR 24-26 DENVER · DENVER 31% → 41%

  5. 05
    Selin AslayanAttack error+8.9%

    Attack error by Selin Aslayan

    Set 2 · STCLAR 24-25 DENVER · DENVER 22% → 31%

  6. 06
    Izabela MolinaAttack error+8.5%

    Attack error by Izabela Molina

    Set 4 · STCLAR 24-24 DENVER · STCLAR 68% → 77%

  7. 07

    Kill by Alicia Thibodeau (set by Lily Van Hal)

    Set 4 · STCLAR 24-25 DENVER · DENVER 23% → 32%

  8. 08
    Cate ShanahanKill+8.5%

    Kill by Cate Shanahan (set by Macy Hinshaw)

    Set 4 · STCLAR 25-25 DENVER · STCLAR 68% → 77%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
421455.309021120132.525.5
415428.3931004002116
413634.20600020031.514.5
412218.55600000132.514.5
47018.3890012006310
4026-.3335401130010.50.5
4000–7221510002
4001.000111600001
4000–001810000
3000–000000000
Team totals6818160.313635762221811101
Denverhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
419748.25001115000020
413435.2571109200014
46418.111200200217
4317.286410070010.53.5
43311.000200500003
4000–000220000
413329.3450002002114
4102.5006002010001
2000–700400000
14410.000000000004
1003.00000010010.50.5
Team totals6226163.221592167506390

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Santa Clara vs Denver

Season series · Santa Clara leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 STCLAR · DENVER 5

Set 1

25-21

Longest run 3 STCLARDENVER 3

Set 2

24-26

Longest run 4 STCLARDENVER 5

Set 3

25-18

Longest run 5 STCLARDENVER 3

Set 4

27-25

Longest run 6 STCLARDENVER 5

Bars above the line = Denver leads, below = Santa Clara leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Santa Clara

SlotSideout %Break %
1
60%12/20
38%6/16
2
63%10/16
52%11/21
3
77%10/13
33%5/15
4
82%9/11
31%4/13
5
47%8/17
53%10/19
6
57%8/14
50%8/16
All
63%57/91
44%44/100

Denver

SlotSideout %Break %
1
55%11/20
33%5/15
2
56%10/18
48%10/21
3
64%9/14
33%5/15
4
69%9/13
25%3/12
5
45%9/20
25%3/12
6
53%8/15
50%8/16
All
56%56/100
37%34/91

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

191 rallies

#STCLAR-DENVERSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0DENVERSTCLARBlockedIzabela Molinablk Grace Flanagan, Selin Aslayan+1.6
22-0STCLARSTCLARKillMorgan Hayesset Macy Hinshaw+2.4
32-1STCLARDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Cate Shanahan+1.6
43-1DENVERSTCLAR×3KillSelin Aslayanset Macy Hinshaw+1.6
54-1STCLARSTCLAR×3KillMorgan Hayesset Lexi Trapani+2.2
65-1STCLARSTCLAR×3KillGrace Flanaganset Macy Hinshaw+2.0
75-2STCLARDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+1.3
86-2DENVERSTCLARKillMorgan Hayesset Macy Hinshaw+1.4
97-2STCLARSTCLARKillCate Shanahan+1.8
107-3STCLARDENVERAttack errMorgan Hayes+1.1
118-3DENVERSTCLARKillMorgan Hayesset Macy Hinshaw+1.2
129-3STCLARSTCLARBlockedElise Hartblk Allison Dzieciuch+1.5
139-4STCLARDENVERServe errTia Kapihe+0.8
1410-4DENVERSTCLARKillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+1.0
1510-5STCLARDENVER×3KillElise Hartset Lily Van Hal+0.8
1610-6DENVERDENVER×3Attack errSelin Aslayan+1.5
1710-7DENVERDENVER×3KillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+1.9
1811-7DENVERSTCLARKillSelin Aslayanset Macy Hinshaw+1.5
1911-8STCLARDENVERAttack errSelin Aslayan+1.3
2012-8DENVERSTCLARKillSelin Aslayanset Macy Hinshaw+1.6
2112-9STCLARDENVERAttack errSelin Aslayan+1.3
2212-10DENVERDENVERKillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+2.4
2313-10DENVERSTCLARKillMorgan Hayesset Macy Hinshaw+1.9
2413-11STCLARDENVER×3KillJamia Johnsonset Izabela Molina+1.7
2513-12DENVERDENVER×3AceAlicia Thibodeauaced Lexi Trapani+3.0
2613-13DENVERDENVER×3KillJamia Johnsonset Izabela Molina+3.4
2714-13DENVERSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+2.4
2815-13STCLARSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Morgan Hayes+3.4
2915-14STCLARDENVER×3KillIzabela Molinaset Lily Van Hal+2.2
3015-15DENVERDENVER×3KillJamia Johnsonset Madison Winkler+3.7
3115-16DENVERDENVER×3KillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+4.1
3216-16DENVERSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+2.7
3316-17STCLARDENVERKillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+3.0
3417-17DENVERSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+2.9
3518-17STCLARSTCLARAceCate Shanahanaced Emersen Werger+4.5
3618-18STCLARDENVERServe errCate Shanahan+3.0
3719-18DENVERSTCLARKillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+3.2
3820-18STCLARSTCLARAceLexi Trapaniaced Emersen Werger+4.6
3920-19STCLARDENVERKillElise Hartset Lily Van Hal+2.7
4021-19DENVERSTCLARBad setElise Hart+3.3
4121-20STCLARDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+2.8
4222-20DENVERSTCLARKillMorgan Hayesset Lexi Trapani+3.7
4323-20STCLARSTCLARKillCate Shanahan+4.0
4423-21STCLARDENVERAttack errCate Shanahan+1.5
4524-21DENVERSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+2.7
4625-21STCLARSTCLARAttack errKayla Patel+1.4
Set 2
10-1STCLARDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+1.5
20-2DENVERDENVERKillIzabela Molinaset Lily Van Hal+2.3
31-2DENVERSTCLARBlockedJamia Johnsonblk Grace Flanagan, Cate Shanahan+1.5
41-3STCLARDENVERKillIzabela Molinaset Lily Van Hal+1.6
51-4DENVERDENVERAttack errMorgan Hayes+2.3
62-4DENVERSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+1.4
72-5STCLARDENVERKillIzabela Molinaset Lily Van Hal+1.6
83-5DENVERSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+1.5
93-6STCLARDENVERKillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+1.7
104-6DENVERSTCLARKillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+1.5
114-7STCLARDENVERKillLily Van Halset Elise Hart+1.7
125-7DENVERSTCLAR×4KillSelin Aslayanset Macy Hinshaw+1.5
136-7STCLARSTCLAR×4Attack errElise Hart+2.4
147-7STCLARSTCLAR×4KillSelin Aslayanset Macy Hinshaw+2.6
158-7STCLARSTCLAR×4Attack errAlicia Thibodeau+2.6
168-8STCLARDENVERKillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+1.8
178-9DENVERDENVERBad setMacy Hinshaw+2.7
189-9DENVERSTCLARKillSelin Aslayanset Macy Hinshaw+1.8
199-10STCLARDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+2.0
209-11DENVERDENVERAttack errMacy Hinshaw+2.9
2110-11DENVERSTCLARKillMorgan Hayesset Macy Hinshaw+1.8
2211-11STCLARSTCLARKillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+2.9
2311-12STCLARDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+2.1
2412-12DENVERSTCLARKillMorgan Hayesset Macy Hinshaw+2.0
2513-12STCLARSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Lexi Trapani+3.0
2613-13STCLARDENVERKillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+2.1
2714-13DENVERSTCLARAttack errKayla Patel+2.1
2814-14STCLARDENVERKillElise Hartset Lily Van Hal+2.2
2915-14DENVERSTCLAR×3KillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+2.3
3016-14STCLARSTCLAR×3KillGrace Flanaganset Macy Hinshaw+3.2
3117-14STCLARSTCLAR×3KillSelin Aslayanset Macy Hinshaw+2.8
3217-15STCLARDENVERKillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+1.6
3318-15DENVERSTCLARKillGrace Flanaganset Macy Hinshaw+2.0
3418-16STCLARDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+1.6
3519-16DENVERSTCLARKillSelin Aslayanset Macy Hinshaw+2.1
3620-16STCLARSTCLARBlockedAlicia Thibodeaublk Grace Flanagan, Morgan Hayes+2.3
3720-17STCLARDENVERKillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+1.1
3820-18DENVERDENVERBlockedCate Shanahanblk Izabela Molina, Jamia Johnson+2.4
3921-18DENVERSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Ashlynn Reilly+2.2
4021-19STCLARDENVERAttack errMorgan Hayes+1.6
4122-19DENVERSTCLARServe errAlicia Thibodeau+2.3
4222-20STCLARDENVERKillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+1.5
4323-20DENVERSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+2.4
4423-21STCLARDENVERAttack errMacy Hinshaw+1.3
4524-21DENVERSTCLARKillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+2.4
4624-22STCLARDENVER×5Serve errLexi Trapani+0.9
4724-23DENVERDENVER×5AceKayla Patelaced Tia Kapihe+3.3
4824-24DENVERDENVER×5KillAlicia Thibodeauset Madison Winkler+8.4
4924-25DENVERDENVER×5Attack errSelin Aslayan+8.9
5024-26DENVERDENVER×5KillAlicia Thibodeauset Ilayda Eren+9.4
Set 3
11-0DENVERSTCLAR×5KillCate Shanahanset Lexi Trapani+2.2
22-0STCLARSTCLAR×5Attack errAlicia Thibodeau+3.2
33-0STCLARSTCLAR×5KillGrace Flanaganset Macy Hinshaw+3.0
44-0STCLARSTCLAR×5Attack errIzabela Molina+2.7
55-0STCLARSTCLAR×5Attack errIzabela Molina+2.4
65-1STCLARDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+1.4
75-2DENVERDENVERKillMadison Winklerset Macy Hinshaw+2.5
86-2DENVERSTCLARBlockedJamia Johnsonblk Cate Shanahan+1.9
96-3STCLARDENVERAttack errMorgan Hayes+1.7
107-3DENVERSTCLARKillMorgan Hayesset Macy Hinshaw+1.9
117-4STCLARDENVERBlockedSelin Aslayanblk Jamia Johnson, Katelyn Landis+1.7
128-4DENVERSTCLARKillMorgan Hayesset Macy Hinshaw+2.0
139-4STCLARSTCLARKillSelin Aslayanset Lexi Trapani+2.5
149-5STCLARDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+1.4
159-6DENVERDENVERKillKayla Patelset Ilayda Eren+2.6
1610-6DENVERSTCLARKillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+2.0
1711-6STCLARSTCLARKillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+2.5
1811-7STCLARDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+1.4
1912-7DENVERSTCLARKillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+1.7
2012-8STCLARDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Ilayda Eren+1.4
2112-9DENVERDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+2.7
2213-9DENVERSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+2.1
2313-10STCLARDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Madison Winkler+1.8
2413-11DENVERDENVERKillJamia Johnsonset Madison Winkler+3.4
2514-11DENVERSTCLARKillGrace Flanaganset Macy Hinshaw+2.6
2614-12STCLARDENVERKillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+2.4
2715-12DENVERSTCLARKillMorgan Hayesset Macy Hinshaw+2.7
2815-13STCLARDENVERKillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+2.4
2916-13DENVERSTCLARKillSelin Aslayanset Macy Hinshaw+2.8
3017-13STCLARSTCLARBlockedElise Hartblk Allison Dzieciuch, Selin Aslayan+3.4
3117-14STCLARDENVER×3KillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+1.8
3217-15DENVERDENVER×3Attack errAllison Dzieciuch+3.6
3317-16DENVERDENVER×3KillHailey Goebelset Madison Winkler+4.7
3418-16DENVERSTCLAR×3BlockedHailey Goebelblk Selin Aslayan, Allison Dzieciuch+3.7
3519-16STCLARSTCLAR×3Attack errHailey Goebel+4.7
3620-16STCLARSTCLAR×3KillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+3.6
3720-17STCLARDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+1.6
3821-17DENVERSTCLAR×3KillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+2.4
3922-17STCLARSTCLAR×3Attack errHailey Goebel+2.1
4023-17STCLARSTCLAR×3AceLexi Trapaniaced Kayla Patel+1.0
4123-18STCLARDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Ilayda Eren+0.2
4224-18DENVERSTCLARAttack errAlicia Thibodeau+0.4
4325-18STCLARSTCLARBlockedHailey Goebelblk Grace Flanagan, Cate Shanahan+0.1
Set 4
11-0STCLARSTCLARKillGrace Flanaganset Macy Hinshaw+3.0
22-0STCLARSTCLARBlockedJamia Johnsonblk Grace Flanagan, Cate Shanahan+2.9
32-1STCLARDENVERServe errMacy Hinshaw+1.9
43-1DENVERSTCLARKillMorgan Hayesset Macy Hinshaw+2.0
53-2STCLARDENVER×3KillIzabela Molinaset Lily Van Hal+2.0
63-3DENVERDENVER×3KillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+3.1
73-4DENVERDENVER×3Attack errCate Shanahan+3.3
84-4DENVERSTCLARKillMorgan Hayesset Macy Hinshaw+2.2
95-4STCLARSTCLARKillAllison Dzieciuch+3.3
105-5STCLARDENVERAttack errSelin Aslayan+2.3
116-5DENVERSTCLARKillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+2.3
126-6STCLARDENVERKillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+2.3
137-6DENVERSTCLARBlockedAlicia Thibodeaublk Allison Dzieciuch, Macy Hinshaw+2.3
147-7STCLARDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Madison Winkler+2.4
158-7DENVERSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+2.4
169-7STCLARSTCLARKillGrace Flanaganset Macy Hinshaw+3.4
179-8STCLARDENVER×3Serve errLexi Trapani+2.3
189-9DENVERDENVER×3KillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+3.7
199-10DENVERDENVER×3KillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+3.9
2010-10DENVERSTCLARAttack errAlicia Thibodeau+2.6
2110-11STCLARDENVER×5KillLily Van Halset Kayla Patel+2.8
2210-12DENVERDENVER×5KillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+4.2
2310-13DENVERDENVER×5KillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+4.0
2410-14DENVERDENVER×5KillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+3.6
2510-15DENVERDENVER×5KillIzabela Molina+3.1
2611-15DENVERSTCLAR×3BlockedKayla Patelblk Morgan Hayes, Grace Flanagan+1.6
2712-15STCLARSTCLAR×3Attack errKayla Patel+3.0
2813-15STCLARSTCLAR×3KillSelin Aslayan+3.6
2913-16STCLARDENVERKillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+3.0
3014-16DENVERSTCLARKillMorgan Hayesset Lexi Trapani+2.5
3114-17STCLARDENVERServe errGrace Flanagan+3.2
3214-18DENVERDENVERKillLily Van Halset Elise Hart+3.9
3315-18DENVERSTCLARKillSelin Aslayanset Macy Hinshaw+2.0
3416-18STCLARSTCLARKillSelin Aslayanset Lexi Trapani+3.8
3516-19STCLARDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+3.4
3617-19DENVERSTCLAR×6KillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+2.6
3718-19STCLARSTCLAR×6KillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+5.0
3819-19STCLARSTCLAR×6AceAshlynn Reillyaced Kayla Patel+6.0
3920-19STCLARSTCLAR×6Attack errAlicia Thibodeau+6.4
4021-19STCLARSTCLAR×6Attack errLily Van Hal+6.1
4122-19STCLARSTCLAR×6KillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+4.8
4222-20STCLARDENVER×3Serve errAshlynn Reilly+2.1
4322-21DENVERDENVER×3Attack errAllison Dzieciuch+5.1
4422-22DENVERDENVER×3BlockedCate Shanahanblk Lily Van Hal, Izabela Molina+7.8
4523-22DENVERSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+6.5
4623-23STCLARDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+6.2
4723-24DENVERDENVERKillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+12.3
4824-24DENVERSTCLARAttack errIzabela Molina+8.5
4924-25STCLARDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+8.5
5025-25DENVERSTCLAR×3KillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+8.5
5126-25STCLARSTCLAR×3AceCate Shanahanaced Madison Winkler+11.9
5227-25STCLARSTCLAR×3KillMorgan Hayesset Macy Hinshaw+11.2

Score shown after each rally, Santa Clara first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).