Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 30, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Illinois St. def. Valparaiso 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Illinois St. 78.3% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 30, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Illinois St. beat visiting Valparaiso 3-1 (23-25, 25-19, 27-25, 25-23) on Fri, Oct 30, 2026. Illinois St.'s Emilija Arsic led with 17 kills, and Samantha Bunch added 15 digs.

Data through · final Oct 30

Set1234Sets
VALPO251925231
ILL ST232527253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Down 0–4 in the third, Illinois St. took the set and then the match.

2 stretches decided it. Percentages are Illinois St.'s RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Illinois St. went in as RallyIQ's 78% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · Valparaiso 22–22 Illinois St.

    Valparaiso closed it, 3 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 25–23 and lead 1–0.

    Illinois St. 75% → 58%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 3 · Valparaiso 24–24 Illinois St.

    3 of the last 4 rallies went to Illinois St., enough to take the set 27–25 and lead 2–1.

    Illinois St. 67% → 88%

Illinois St. above 50Valparaiso belowMax swing 12.8%

ValparaisoIllinois St.

Sideout %
Valparaiso 62.6·Illinois St. 67.7
Break %
Valparaiso 32.3·Illinois St. 37.4
Hitting
Valparaiso .276·Illinois St. .270
Longest run
Valparaiso 4·Illinois St. 6

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Illinois St. above 50 · Valparaiso below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+12.8% ILL STrally 192 · set 4

Biggest swing: 12.8% to Illinois St. — set 3, VALPO 24-24 ILL ST. Attack error by Jessica Pickett. ILL ST win probability 54% → 67%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

VALPO 26.5%73.5% ILL ST

Valparaiso wins

3-0
4.8%
3-1
9.2%
3-2
12.6%

Illinois St. wins

3-0
25.8%
3-1
28.1%
3-2
19.5%
VALPO break %
41.1% vs this opp
ILL ST break %
45.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Jessica PickettAttack error+12.8%

    Attack error by Jessica Pickett

    Set 3 · VALPO 24-24 ILL ST · ILL ST 54% → 67%

  2. 02

    Sarah Pippin stuffed by Jillian Ferrill & Ayla Klingenberg

    Set 3 · VALPO 24-25 ILL ST · ILL ST 67% → 78%

  3. 03
    Kyla BellichAttack error+9.8%

    Attack error by Kyla Bellich

    Set 3 · VALPO 25-27 ILL ST · ILL ST 78% → 88%

  4. 04
    Maggie UhwatKill+9.5%

    Kill by Maggie Uhwat (set by Mia McCall)

    Set 1 · VALPO 25-23 ILL ST · VALPO 32% → 42%

  5. 05
    Ayla KlingenbergAttack error+8.8%

    Attack error by Ayla Klingenberg

    Set 3 · VALPO 25-25 ILL ST · VALPO 22% → 30%

  6. 06
    Emilija ArsicKill+8.8%

    Kill by Emilija Arsic (set by Ella Kohnen)

    Set 3 · VALPO 25-26 ILL ST · ILL ST 70% → 78%

  7. 07

    Kill by Jessica Pickett (set by Olivia Wagner)

    Set 3 · VALPO 24-22 ILL ST · VALPO 42% → 50%

  8. 08
    Kyla BellichAttack error+7.9%

    Attack error by Kyla Bellich

    Set 4 · VALPO 23-25 ILL ST · ILL ST 92% → 100%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
417130.533005113010.517.5
414641.19500211202115
46315.20000001010.56.5
45116.250102700005
4000–3000600000
35620-.050000001016
415328.4290001002116
4000–121920002
4002.0002801800000
4000–000500000
1000–100000000
1000–000000000
Team totals6220152.2766121158816492
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
417342.3331218000019
411325.32010030010.511.5
44315.067000101437
4318.25001220010.54.5
4001.0002711700001
1214.250000000002
413532.25000150010.513.5
410325.28000020031.511.5
4000–4331520003
4000–2011800001
4000–3001200000
1000–000100000
Team totals6019152.27056896421106100

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Valparaiso vs Illinois St.

Season series · Illinois St. leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 VALPO · ILL ST 6

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 4 VALPOILL ST 3

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 3 VALPOILL ST 6

Set 3

25-27

Longest run 4 VALPOILL ST 4

Set 4

23-25

Longest run 3 VALPOILL ST 3

Bars above the line = Illinois St. leads, below = Valparaiso leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Valparaiso

SlotSideout %Break %
1
60%12/20
33%5/15
2
55%11/20
33%6/18
3
85%11/13
15%2/13
4
53%10/19
31%5/16
5
64%9/14
33%5/15
6
69%9/13
44%7/16
All
63%62/99
32%30/93

Illinois St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
75%12/16
17%2/12
2
75%12/16
45%10/22
3
79%11/14
35%6/17
4
69%11/16
45%9/20
5
56%9/16
36%5/14
6
53%8/15
36%5/14
All
68%63/93
37%37/99

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

192 rallies

#VALPO-ILL STSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0ILL STVALPOKillKyla Bellichset Mia McCall+1.5
21-1VALPOILL STKillOliwia Caputaset Ella Craggs+1.4
32-1ILL STVALPOKillAva Helmingset Olivia Wagner+1.5
42-2VALPOILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+1.4
53-2ILL STVALPOKillJessica Pickettset Olivia Wagner+1.6
63-3VALPOILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Ella Craggs+1.5
74-3ILL STVALPOServe errIllinois St.+1.6
84-4VALPOILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+1.5
94-5ILL STILL STKillOliwia Caputa+1.8
105-5ILL STVALPO×4KillJordyn Goveset Mia McCall+1.5
116-5VALPOVALPO×4KillSarah Pippinset Mia McCall+2.1
127-5VALPOVALPO×4KillAva Helmingset Mia McCall+2.3
138-5VALPOVALPO×4Attack errOliwia Caputa+2.3
148-6VALPOILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Emilija Arsic+1.6
159-6ILL STVALPOServe errIllinois St.+1.9
1610-6VALPOVALPOKillAva Helmingset Keira Lucas+2.4
1710-7VALPOILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+1.6
1811-7ILL STVALPOKillAva Helmingset Mia McCall+2.0
1911-8VALPOILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Craggs+1.6
2011-9ILL STILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Ella Craggs+2.3
2112-9ILL STVALPOKillJessica Pickettset Olivia Wagner+2.1
2212-10VALPOILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Ella Craggs+1.8
2313-10ILL STVALPOBlockedRuth Zieglerblk Jordyn Gove, Jessica Pickett+2.2
2413-11VALPOILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+1.9
2513-12ILL STILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Peyton Turner+2.5
2614-12ILL STVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Olivia Wagner+2.4
2715-12VALPOVALPOAttack errEmilija Arsic+2.9
2815-13VALPOILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+2.0
2915-14ILL STILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Kohnen+2.7
3016-14ILL STVALPOKillAva Helmingset Mia McCall+2.6
3117-14VALPOVALPOKillSarah Pippinset Mia McCall+3.2
3217-15VALPOILL STKillAyla Klingenbergset Ella Kohnen+2.1
3318-15ILL STVALPOKillKyla Bellichset Mia McCall+2.7
3418-16VALPOILL STServe errValparaiso+2.1
3519-16ILL STVALPOKillMaggie Uhwatset Mia McCall+2.8
3619-17VALPOILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Craggs+2.2
3720-17ILL STVALPOKillJessica Pickettset Olivia Wagner+3.0
3820-18VALPOILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Ella Craggs+2.2
3921-18ILL STVALPOKillJessica Pickettset Olivia Wagner+3.2
4021-19VALPOILL ST×3Attack errSarah Pippin+2.2
4121-20ILL STILL ST×3BlockedSarah Pippinblk Ayla Klingenberg, Jillian Ferrill+3.7
4221-21ILL STILL ST×3Attack errJordyn Gove+4.5
4322-21ILL STVALPOKillJessica Pickettset Olivia Wagner+4.4
4422-22VALPOILL STKillAyla Klingenbergset Ella Kohnen+4.1
4523-22ILL STVALPOKillSarah Pippinset Mia McCall+5.2
4623-23VALPOILL STServe errValparaiso+4.8
4724-23ILL STVALPOKillAva Helmingset Mia McCall+6.7
4825-23VALPOVALPOKillMaggie Uhwatset Mia McCall+9.5
Set 2
10-1VALPOILL ST×6KillEmilija Arsicset Ella Craggs+1.9
20-2ILL STILL ST×6KillEmilija Arsicset Ella Craggs+2.3
30-3ILL STILL ST×6KillEmilija Arsicset Ella Craggs+2.1
40-4ILL STILL ST×6AceIllinois St.aced Keira Lucas+1.8
50-5ILL STILL ST×6Attack errJessica Pickett+1.6
60-6ILL STILL ST×6Attack errJordyn Gove+1.3
71-6ILL STVALPOServe errIllinois St.+0.9
81-7VALPOILL STBlockedJordyn Goveblk Ruth Ziegler, Ayla Klingenberg+1.0
92-7ILL STVALPOKillSarah Pippinset Olivia Wagner+0.9
102-8VALPOILL ST×3KillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+1.0
112-9ILL STILL ST×3BlockedSarah Pippinblk Jillian Gregory, Ayla Klingenberg+1.0
122-10ILL STILL ST×3AceIllinois St.aced Jordyn Gove+0.8
133-10ILL STVALPOKillKyla Bellichset Mia McCall+0.5
143-11VALPOILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Kohnen+0.6
154-11ILL STVALPOKillAva Helmingset Mia McCall+0.5
165-11VALPOVALPOBlockedJillian Gregoryblk Kyla Bellich, Ava Helming+0.8
175-12VALPOILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+0.8
186-12ILL STVALPOServe errIllinois St.+0.7
196-13VALPOILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Craggs+0.8
207-13ILL STVALPOKillAva Helmingset Olivia Wagner+0.6
217-14VALPOILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Peyton Turner+0.8
228-14ILL STVALPO×3KillJordyn Goveset Olivia Wagner+0.6
239-14VALPOVALPO×3Attack errRuth Ziegler+1.1
2410-14VALPOVALPO×3KillSarah Pippinset Olivia Wagner+1.5
2510-15VALPOILL ST×3KillAyla Klingenbergset Ella Craggs+1.4
2610-16ILL STILL ST×3KillEmilija Arsicset Ella Kohnen+1.3
2710-17ILL STILL ST×3KillJillian Ferrill+0.9
2811-17ILL STVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Olivia Wagner+0.5
2911-18VALPOILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+0.7
3012-18ILL STVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Mia McCall+0.5
3113-18VALPOVALPOBlockedJillian Ferrillblk Sarah Pippin+0.9
3213-19VALPOILL STServe errValparaiso+1.0
3314-19ILL STVALPOKillAva Helmingset Mia McCall+0.7
3415-19VALPOVALPOAttack errJillian Ferrill+1.3
3515-20VALPOILL STKillAbby Reckset Ella Kohnen+1.4
3615-21ILL STILL STAttack errKyla Bellich+1.1
3716-21ILL STVALPOAttack errJillian Gregory+0.5
3817-21VALPOVALPOKillAva Helmingset Olivia Wagner+1.1
3917-22VALPOILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Craggs+1.3
4018-22ILL STVALPOKillJessica Pickettset Olivia Wagner+0.7
4118-23VALPOILL STServe errValparaiso+1.1
4219-23ILL STVALPOAttack errAyla Klingenberg+0.5
4319-24VALPOILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+0.9
4419-25ILL STILL STBlockedJessica Pickettblk Ayla Klingenberg+0.3
Set 3
11-0ILL STVALPO×4KillAva Helmingset Mia McCall+2.3
22-0VALPOVALPO×4KillMaggie Uhwatset Olivia Wagner+3.0
33-0VALPOVALPO×4KillAva Helmingset Olivia Wagner+3.1
44-0VALPOVALPO×4KillJessica Pickettset Olivia Wagner+3.2
54-1VALPOILL ST×3Serve errValparaiso+2.2
64-2ILL STILL ST×3KillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+2.9
74-3ILL STILL ST×3KillEmilija Arsicset Ella Craggs+2.9
85-3ILL STVALPOServe errIllinois St.+2.6
95-4VALPOILL STServe errValparaiso+2.4
106-4ILL STVALPOKillJessica Pickettset Olivia Wagner+2.7
116-5VALPOILL ST×3KillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+2.4
126-6ILL STILL ST×3KillJillian Ferrillset Keira Lucas+3.1
136-7ILL STILL ST×3Attack errSarah Pippin+2.9
147-7ILL STVALPOAttack errJillian Ferrill+2.5
158-7VALPOVALPOAttack errEmilija Arsic+3.4
168-8VALPOILL STKillAyla Klingenbergset Ella Kohnen+2.6
179-8ILL STVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Mia McCall+2.8
189-9VALPOILL ST×4KillJillian Gregoryset Ella Kohnen+2.6
199-10ILL STILL ST×4Attack errJordyn Gove+3.3
209-11ILL STILL ST×4BlockedAva Helmingblk Jillian Ferrill, Abby Reck+3.0
219-12ILL STILL ST×4AceIllinois St.aced Kyla Bellich+2.7
2210-12ILL STVALPO×3Serve errIllinois St.+2.1
2311-12VALPOVALPO×3AceKeira Lucasaced Samantha Bunch+3.1
2412-12VALPOVALPO×3KillAva Helmingset Mia McCall+3.6
2512-13VALPOILL STKillAbby Reckset Ella Kohnen+2.9
2613-13ILL STVALPOKillKyla Bellichset Mia McCall+3.1
2713-14VALPOILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Craggs+3.0
2814-14ILL STVALPOKillMaggie Uhwatset Olivia Wagner+3.2
2915-14VALPOVALPOBlockedAbby Reckblk Jordyn Gove, Jessica Pickett+4.5
3015-15VALPOILL STServe errValparaiso+3.4
3116-15ILL STVALPO×3Attack errEmilija Arsic+3.8
3217-15VALPOVALPO×3KillJessica Pickettset Olivia Wagner+5.1
3318-15VALPOVALPO×3KillJessica Pickett+5.0
3418-16VALPOILL STServe errValparaiso+3.2
3519-16ILL STVALPOKillJessica Pickettset Olivia Wagner+4.3
3619-17VALPOILL STAttack errSarah Pippin+3.3
3720-17ILL STVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Mia McCall+4.5
3820-18VALPOILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Kohnen+3.4
3921-18ILL STVALPOKillKyla Bellichset Mia McCall+4.8
4021-19VALPOILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+3.4
4121-20ILL STILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ruth Ziegler+5.6
4222-20ILL STVALPOKillAva Helmingset Mia McCall+6.1
4322-21VALPOILL STAttack errMaggie Uhwat+4.7
4423-21ILL STVALPOKillAva Helmingset Olivia Wagner+7.0
4523-22VALPOILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Ella Craggs+4.9
4624-22ILL STVALPOKillJessica Pickettset Olivia Wagner+8.3
4724-23VALPOILL ST×3KillRuth Zieglerset Samantha Bunch+4.8
4824-24ILL STILL ST×3Attack errJessica Pickett+12.8
4924-25ILL STILL ST×3BlockedSarah Pippinblk Jillian Ferrill, Ayla Klingenberg+11.2
5025-25ILL STVALPOAttack errAyla Klingenberg+8.8
5125-26VALPOILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Ella Kohnen+8.8
5225-27ILL STILL STAttack errKyla Bellich+9.8
Set 4
10-1VALPOILL STBad setRylee Bumgardner+1.6
21-1ILL STVALPOServe errSamantha Bunch+1.7
32-1VALPOVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Maggie Uhwat+2.3
42-2VALPOILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Samantha Bunch+1.7
52-3ILL STILL STAttack errJordyn Gove+2.1
63-3ILL STVALPOAttack errJillian Gregory+1.8
73-4VALPOILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+1.7
84-4ILL STVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Mia McCall+1.8
94-5VALPOILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+1.8
105-5ILL STVALPOKillAva Helmingset Mia McCall+1.9
116-5VALPOVALPOAceKeira Lucasaced Samantha Bunch+2.6
126-6VALPOILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Samantha Bunch+1.9
137-6ILL STVALPOKillAva Helmingset Mia McCall+2.1
147-7VALPOILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Ella Kohnen+2.0
157-8ILL STILL STAceEmilija Arsicaced Keira Lucas+2.5
168-8ILL STVALPOServe errEmilija Arsic+2.1
179-8VALPOVALPOAttack errJillian Gregory+2.8
189-9VALPOILL STServe errAva Helming+2.1
1910-9ILL STVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Olivia Wagner+2.4
2010-10VALPOILL STServe errMaggie Uhwat+2.2
2111-10ILL STVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Olivia Wagner+2.5
2211-11VALPOILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+2.3
2312-11ILL STVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Mia McCall+2.6
2412-12VALPOILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+2.4
2512-13ILL STILL STAttack errJordyn Gove+3.0
2613-13ILL STVALPOServe errAbby Reck+2.5
2713-14VALPOILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Ella Craggs+2.4
2813-15ILL STILL STAceElla Kohnenaced Jordyn Gove+2.9
2914-15ILL STVALPO×3KillMaggie Uhwatset Mia McCall+2.3
3015-15VALPOVALPO×3KillJessica Pickettset Olivia Wagner+3.4
3116-15VALPOVALPO×3Attack errAyla Klingenberg+3.8
3216-16VALPOILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Ella Kohnen+2.9
3317-16ILL STVALPOKillJessica Pickettset Olivia Wagner+3.3
3417-17VALPOILL ST×3Serve errAva Helming+3.1
3517-18ILL STILL ST×3AceSamantha Bunchaced Ava Helming+3.9
3617-19ILL STILL ST×3AceSamantha Bunchaced Ava Helming+3.6
3718-19ILL STVALPOKillJessica Pickettset Olivia Wagner+2.7
3818-20VALPOILL ST×3KillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+3.1
3918-21ILL STILL ST×3AceElla Craggsaced Ava Helming+3.2
4018-22ILL STILL ST×3KillJillian Gregoryset Samantha Bunch+2.2
4119-22ILL STVALPOKillJordyn Goveset Maddie Steele+1.1
4220-22VALPOVALPOAttack errJillian Gregory+2.3
4320-23VALPOILL STKillAbby Reckset Ella Craggs+2.7
4421-23ILL STVALPO×3KillJordyn Goveset Mia McCall+1.7
4522-23VALPOVALPO×3Attack errRuth Ziegler+4.0
4623-23VALPOVALPO×3KillKyla Bellichset Mia McCall+6.9
4723-24VALPOILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Peyton Turner+7.1
4823-25ILL STILL STAttack errKyla Bellich+7.9

Score shown after each rally, Valparaiso first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).