FinalSat, Sep 5, 2026

AwayCAA

3:0

HomeWCC

Hofstra def. Santa Clara 3–0

(25-23, 25-20, 25-22)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
HOFSTR	25	25	25	3
STCLAR	23	20	22	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

STCLAR above 50 · HOFSTR below

Biggest swing: 9.5% to Hofstra — set 1, HOFSTR 25-23 STCLAR. Selin Aslayan stuffed by Dawn Pena & Julia Amorim. STCLAR win probability 36% → 27%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

HOFSTR 56.2%43.8% STCLAR

Hofstra wins

3-0

15.3%

3-1

21.3%

3-2

19.6%

Santa Clara wins

3-0

10.1%

3-1

16.2%

3-2

17.6%

HOFSTR break %: 43.5% vs this opp
STCLAR break %: 42.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Selin AslayanAttack error+9.5%
Selin Aslayan stuffed by Dawn Pena & Julia Amorim
Set 1 · HOFSTR 25-23 STCLAR · HOFSTR 64% → 73%
02
Ellie PamatatBad set+7.4%
Bad set by Ellie Pamatat
Set 1 · HOFSTR 23-23 STCLAR · STCLAR 36% → 44%
03
Beatriz BragaKill+7.4%
Kill by Beatriz Braga (set by Ellie Pamatat)
Set 1 · HOFSTR 24-23 STCLAR · HOFSTR 56% → 64%
04
STCLAR serverService error+4.7%
Santa Clara service error
Set 1 · HOFSTR 23-21 STCLAR · HOFSTR 62% → 67%
05
HOFSTR serverAce+4.6%
Hofstra ace on Selin Aslayan
Set 1 · HOFSTR 20-18 STCLAR · HOFSTR 59% → 64%
06
Geovanna Gonçalves RochaKill+4.1%
Kill by Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha (set by Sonja Rundcrantz)
Set 1 · HOFSTR 22-20 STCLAR · HOFSTR 62% → 66%
07
Beatriz BragaKill+3.9%
Kill by Beatriz Braga (set by Maria Afonso)
Set 1 · HOFSTR 16-15 STCLAR · HOFSTR 55% → 59%
08
Julia AmorimKill+3.8%
Kill by Julia Amorim (set by Sonja Rundcrantz)
Set 1 · HOFSTR 21-19 STCLAR · HOFSTR 61% → 65%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Hofstraaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
9Beatriz BragaOH	3	14	2	33	.364	0	1	3	7	0	0	0	15
3Maria AfonsoOH	3	10	5	24	.208	1	2	0	6	0	0	0	12
19Julia AmorimMB	3	8	0	14	.571	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	10
21Constanza Perez SainOH	3	7	3	21	.190	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	8
16Geovanna Gonçalves RochaOH	3	5	2	9	.333	1	0	1	2	1	1	1.5	6.5
6Sonja RundcrantzS	3	0	0	2	.000	20	1	0	7	0	0	0	1
2Dawn PenaOH	3	3	2	10	.100	1	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	3.5
22Lauren KonzenDS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	0	0	6	0	0	0	0
5Nil KayaalpL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	3	0	0	11	0	0	0	0
11Ellie PamatatS	3	0	0	0	–	15	0	0	8	0	0	0	0
Team totals		47	14	115	.287	42	4	4	50	2	6	5	75

Santa Clarahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
20Morgan HayesOPP	3	14	5	35	.257	0	1	2	0	0	1	0.5	14.5
6Grace FlanaganMB	3	11	1	18	.556	0	0	2	0	1	4	3	14
14Cate ShanahanOH	3	10	6	28	.143	0	0	4	0	0	3	1.5	11.5
9Selin AslayanOH	3	5	1	13	.308	0	2	5	2	0	1	0.5	5.5
1Macy HinshawS	3	1	0	6	.167	33	1	12	0	0	2	1	2
21Bryn ShankleMB	2	1	1	5	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
11Lexi TrapaniL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	6	1	14	0	0	0	0	1
8Alyssa EimerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
10Ashlynn ReillyL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0
12Allison DzieciuchMB	2	2	0	5	.400	0	0	2	0	1	1	1.5	3.5
22Tia KapiheOH	1	0	0	5	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		45	14	116	.267	39	7	43	4	2	12	8	65

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 HOFSTR · STCLAR 5

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 3 HOFSTRSTCLAR 4

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 5 HOFSTRSTCLAR 5

Set 3

25-22

Longest run 4 HOFSTRSTCLAR 4

Bars above the line = Santa Clara leads, below = Hofstra leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Hofstra

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	62%8/13	33%3/9
2	78%7/9	50%7/14
3	88%7/8	46%6/13
4	78%7/9	13%1/8
5	41%7/17	53%8/15
6	55%6/11	57%8/14
All	63%42/67	45%33/73

Santa Clara

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	58%7/12	38%5/13
2	58%7/12	22%2/9
3	64%7/11	13%1/8
4	70%7/10	30%3/10
5	38%6/16	46%6/13
6	50%6/12	57%8/14
All	55%40/73	37%25/67

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

140 rallies

Rally log

#	HOFSTR-STCLAR	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	STCLAR	STCLAR	Kill	Grace Flanagan		+2.5
2	1-1	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Serve err	STCLAR server		+1.8
3	1-2	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Attack err	Maria Afonso		+1.9
4	1-3	STCLAR	STCLAR	Attack err	Maria Afonso		+2.5
5	2-3	STCLAR	HOFSTR×3	Serve err	STCLAR server		+1.8
6	3-3	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Kill	Maria Afonso	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+2.6
7	4-3	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Attack err	Cate Shanahan	blk Constanza Perez Sain, Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha	+2.6
8	4-4	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Kill	Cate Shanahan	set Macy Hinshaw	+2.0
9	5-4	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Kill	Maria Afonso	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+2.0
10	5-5	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Attack err	Maria Afonso		+2.0
11	6-5	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Attack err	Bryn Shankle		+2.0
12	7-5	HOFSTR	HOFSTR	Kill	Maria Afonso	set Ellie Pamatat	+2.7
13	7-6	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Lexi Trapani	+1.9
14	8-6	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Kill	Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha	set Ellie Pamatat	+2.1
15	9-6	HOFSTR	HOFSTR	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Lauren Konzen	+2.6
16	9-7	HOFSTR	STCLAR×4	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+1.8
17	9-8	STCLAR	STCLAR×4	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+2.7
18	9-9	STCLAR	STCLAR×4	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Lexi Trapani	+3.0
19	9-10	STCLAR	STCLAR×4	Kill	Grace Flanagan	set Macy Hinshaw	+3.1
20	10-10	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Ellie Pamatat	+2.3
21	10-11	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Kill	Lexi Trapani	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+2.4
22	10-12	STCLAR	STCLAR	Kill	Cate Shanahan	set Macy Hinshaw	+3.2
23	11-12	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Serve err	STCLAR server		+2.3
24	11-13	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Serve err	HOFSTR server		+2.5
25	12-13	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Serve err	STCLAR server		+2.4
26	13-13	HOFSTR	HOFSTR	Attack err	Cate Shanahan	blk Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha	+3.4
27	13-14	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Attack err	Constanza Perez Sain	blk Cate Shanahan, Grace Flanagan	+2.7
28	14-14	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Kill	Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+2.7
29	14-15	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Kill	Bryn Shankle	set Macy Hinshaw	+2.9
30	15-15	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Kill	Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha	set Ellie Pamatat	+2.8
31	16-15	HOFSTR	HOFSTR	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Maria Afonso	+3.9
32	16-16	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+2.9
33	17-16	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Ellie Pamatat	+3.1
34	17-17	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Kill	Selin Aslayan	set Macy Hinshaw	+3.1
35	18-17	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Serve err	STCLAR server		+3.3
36	18-18	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Lexi Trapani	+3.3
37	19-18	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Serve err	STCLAR server		+3.6
38	20-18	HOFSTR	HOFSTR	Ace	HOFSTR server	aced Selin Aslayan	+4.6
39	20-19	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Kill	Cate Shanahan	set Macy Hinshaw	+3.0
40	21-19	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Kill	Julia Amorim	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+3.8
41	21-20	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Kill	Grace Flanagan	set Macy Hinshaw	+3.2
42	22-20	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Kill	Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+4.1
43	22-21	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+3.3
44	23-21	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Serve err	STCLAR server		+4.7
45	23-22	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+3.4
46	23-23	STCLAR	STCLAR	Bad set	Ellie Pamatat		+7.4
47	24-23	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Ellie Pamatat	+7.4
48	25-23	HOFSTR	HOFSTR	Attack err	Selin Aslayan	blk Dawn Pena, Julia Amorim	+9.5
Set 2
1	0-1	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Kill	Selin Aslayan	set Macy Hinshaw	+1.8
2	1-1	STCLAR	HOFSTR×3	Kill	Julia Amorim	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+1.7
3	2-1	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Kill	Maria Afonso	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+2.3
4	3-1	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Kill	Constanza Perez Sain	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+2.3
5	3-2	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Kill	Grace Flanagan	set Macy Hinshaw	+1.7
6	4-2	STCLAR	HOFSTR×4	Kill	Julia Amorim	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+1.7
7	5-2	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×4	Attack err	Morgan Hayes		+2.2
8	6-2	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×4	Kill	Maria Afonso	set Nil Kayaalp	+2.0
9	7-2	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×4	Attack err	Cate Shanahan		+1.8
10	7-3	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Lexi Trapani	+1.2
11	8-3	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Kill	Maria Afonso	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+1.4
12	8-4	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Kill	Grace Flanagan	set Macy Hinshaw	+1.2
13	9-4	STCLAR	HOFSTR×5	Kill	Maria Afonso	set Ellie Pamatat	+1.4
14	10-4	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×5	Ace	HOFSTR server	aced Tia Kapihe	+1.6
15	11-4	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×5	Bad set	Cate Shanahan		+1.2
16	12-4	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×5	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.9
17	13-4	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×5	Ace	HOFSTR server	aced Selin Aslayan	+0.7
18	13-5	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.3
19	14-5	STCLAR	HOFSTR×3	Kill	Dawn Pena	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.5
20	15-5	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Kill	Dawn Pena	set Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha	+0.4
21	16-5	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Attack err	Cate Shanahan		+0.3
22	16-6	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.1
23	16-7	STCLAR	STCLAR	Kill	Selin Aslayan	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.2
24	17-7	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Attack err	Morgan Hayes		+0.3
25	17-8	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.1
26	17-9	STCLAR	STCLAR	Kill	Grace Flanagan	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.3
27	18-9	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Kill	Constanza Perez Sain	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.3
28	18-10	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Serve err	HOFSTR server		+0.2
29	18-11	STCLAR	STCLAR	Kill	Selin Aslayan	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.4
30	19-11	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Kill	Julia Amorim	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.5
31	19-12	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Kill	Grace Flanagan	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.3
32	19-13	STCLAR	STCLAR	Attack err	Maria Afonso	blk Macy Hinshaw, Grace Flanagan	+0.5
33	20-13	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Kill	Constanza Perez Sain	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+0.6
34	20-14	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Kill	Grace Flanagan	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.3
35	21-14	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Kill	Maria Afonso	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.6
36	22-14	HOFSTR	HOFSTR	Kill	Maria Afonso	set Ellie Pamatat	+0.3
37	22-15	HOFSTR	STCLAR×5	Attack err	Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha	blk Allison Dzieciuch	+0.1
38	22-16	STCLAR	STCLAR×5	Kill	Cate Shanahan		+0.2
39	22-17	STCLAR	STCLAR×5	Kill	Allison Dzieciuch	set Beatriz Braga	+0.5
40	22-18	STCLAR	STCLAR×5	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.9
41	22-19	STCLAR	STCLAR×5	Attack err	Dawn Pena	blk Cate Shanahan, Allison Dzieciuch	+1.5
42	23-19	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Dawn Pena	+1.9
43	24-19	HOFSTR	HOFSTR	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Ellie Pamatat	+1.2
44	24-20	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Kill	Cate Shanahan	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.2
45	25-20	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Lexi Trapani	+0.5
Set 3
1	0-1	STCLAR	STCLAR	Kill	Cate Shanahan	set Macy Hinshaw	+1.5
2	1-1	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+1.1
3	2-1	HOFSTR	HOFSTR	Kill	Constanza Perez Sain	set Beatriz Braga	+1.5
4	2-2	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Serve err	HOFSTR server		+1.1
5	3-2	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Kill	Julia Amorim	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+1.1
6	3-3	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Kill	Selin Aslayan	set Macy Hinshaw	+1.2
7	4-3	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Kill	Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+1.2
8	5-3	HOFSTR	HOFSTR	Kill	Dawn Pena	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+1.5
9	5-4	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Kill	Macy Hinshaw		+1.1
10	5-5	STCLAR	STCLAR	Kill	Grace Flanagan	set Macy Hinshaw	+1.6
11	6-5	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Kill	Maria Afonso	set Nil Kayaalp	+1.2
12	7-5	HOFSTR	HOFSTR	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Ellie Pamatat	+1.6
13	7-6	HOFSTR	STCLAR×3	Attack err	Beatriz Braga		+1.2
14	7-7	STCLAR	STCLAR×3	Attack err	Geovanna Gonçalves Rocha	blk Macy Hinshaw, Grace Flanagan	+1.7
15	7-8	STCLAR	STCLAR×3	Kill	Cate Shanahan	set Lexi Trapani	+1.8
16	8-8	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Attack err	Dawn Pena		+1.3
17	8-9	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Serve err	HOFSTR server		+1.4
18	9-9	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Attack err	Cate Shanahan		+1.3
19	10-9	HOFSTR	HOFSTR	Attack err	Morgan Hayes		+1.8
20	10-10	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Kill	Cate Shanahan	set Macy Hinshaw	+1.4
21	11-10	STCLAR	HOFSTR×3	Kill	Constanza Perez Sain	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+1.4
22	12-10	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Kill	Julia Amorim	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+1.9
23	13-10	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Kill	Julia Amorim		+1.7
24	13-11	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Bad set	Sonja Rundcrantz		+1.2
25	14-11	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Kill	Constanza Perez Sain	set Nil Kayaalp	+1.3
26	14-12	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Kill	Allison Dzieciuch	set Macy Hinshaw	+1.2
27	15-12	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Kill	Constanza Perez Sain	set Sonja Rundcrantz	+1.4
28	15-13	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+1.2
29	15-14	STCLAR	STCLAR	Attack err	Maria Afonso	blk Grace Flanagan, Selin Aslayan	+2.0
30	16-14	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Attack err	Maria Afonso		+1.6
31	16-15	HOFSTR	STCLAR×4	Kill	Grace Flanagan	set Macy Hinshaw	+1.5
32	16-16	STCLAR	STCLAR×4	Kill	Grace Flanagan	set Macy Hinshaw	+2.3
33	16-17	STCLAR	STCLAR×4	Attack err	Beatriz Braga	blk Grace Flanagan	+2.5
34	16-18	STCLAR	STCLAR×4	Kill	Cate Shanahan	set Lexi Trapani	+2.6
35	17-18	STCLAR	HOFSTR×4	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Ellie Pamatat	+1.7
36	18-18	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×4	Attack err	Grace Flanagan		+2.7
37	19-18	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×4	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Ellie Pamatat	+2.9
38	20-18	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×4	Kill	Julia Amorim		+2.8
39	20-19	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Kill	Cate Shanahan	set Macy Hinshaw	+1.8
40	20-20	STCLAR	STCLAR	Attack err	Dawn Pena		+3.1
41	21-20	STCLAR	HOFSTR×3	Kill	Beatriz Braga	set Ellie Pamatat	+2.6
42	22-20	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Ace	HOFSTR server	aced Alyssa Eimer	+3.3
43	23-20	HOFSTR	HOFSTR×3	Attack err	Morgan Hayes	blk Julia Amorim	+2.6
44	23-21	HOFSTR	STCLAR	Attack err	Constanza Perez Sain	blk Cate Shanahan, Morgan Hayes	+1.1
45	23-22	STCLAR	STCLAR	Attack err	Constanza Perez Sain		+2.7
46	24-22	STCLAR	HOFSTR	Attack err	Cate Shanahan	blk Julia Amorim, Constanza Perez Sain	+3.3
47	25-22	HOFSTR	HOFSTR	Attack err	Morgan Hayes		+2.4

Score shown after each rally, Hofstra first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.