Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 17, 2026Watch on PSAC Sports Digital Network

Mercyhurst def. Le Moyne 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Mercyhurst 97.0% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 17, 2:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Mercyhurst beat visiting Le Moyne 3-1 (23-25, 25-14, 25-22, 25-15) on Sat, Oct 17, 2026. Mercyhurst's Madison Miner led with 11 kills, and Kelsie Gaiter-Davis added 11 digs.

Data through · final Oct 17

Set1234Sets
LEMOYN251422151
MERCYH232525253

Match story · from the official box score

Mercyhurst held Le Moyne to .067 hitting.

From the official box score. Without play-by-play that matches the result, there are no win-probability numbers here. RallyIQ gave Mercyhurst 97% before first serve.

Le MoyneMercyhurst
  • Hitting+.133
    .067.200

    42 K / 19 E against 30 K / 23 E.

Le MoyneMercyhurst

Hitting
Le Moyne .067·Mercyhurst .200
Aces
Le Moyne 7·Mercyhurst 17
Serve err
Le Moyne 8·Mercyhurst 11
Blocks
Le Moyne 5·Mercyhurst 113 BS · 4 BA vs 7 BS · 8 BA
Digs
Le Moyne 39·Mercyhurst 42

Win probability

Mercyhurst above 50 · Le Moyne below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+7.1% LEMOYNrally 173 · set 4

Biggest swing: 7.1% to Le Moyne — set 1, LEMOYN 24-23 MERCYH. Attack error by Roslyn Guerra. MERCYH win probability 95% → 88%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

LEMOYN 3.2%96.8% MERCYH

Le Moyne wins

3-0
0.3%
3-1
0.9%
3-2
2.0%

Mercyhurst wins

3-0
61.3%
3-1
27.7%
3-2
7.7%
LEMOYN break %
39.8% vs this opp
MERCYH break %
54.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Roslyn GuerraAttack error+7.1%

    Attack error by Roslyn Guerra

    Set 1 · LEMOYN 24-23 MERCYH · LEMOYN 5% → 12%

  2. 02

    Kill by Gabriella Schemidt (set by Alise Evans)

    Set 3 · LEMOYN 22-22 MERCYH · LEMOYN 8% → 12%

  3. 03

    Kill by Julia Shepherd (set by Alyssa Krause)

    Set 3 · LEMOYN 22-23 MERCYH · MERCYH 88% → 92%

  4. 04
    MercyhurstAce+3.7%

    Mercyhurst ace on Avery Stromberg

    Set 3 · LEMOYN 22-24 MERCYH · MERCYH 92% → 95%

  5. 05
    Alise EvansBlock+3.4%

    Ava Carney stuffed by Alise Evans

    Set 3 · LEMOYN 18-16 MERCYH · LEMOYN 13% → 16%

  6. 06
    Roslyn GuerraAttack error+2.8%

    Attack error by Roslyn Guerra

    Set 3 · LEMOYN 17-16 MERCYH · LEMOYN 10% → 13%

  7. 07
    Roslyn GuerraKill+2.8%

    Kill by Roslyn Guerra (set by Jazmin Rodriguez)

    Set 3 · LEMOYN 18-18 MERCYH · MERCYH 86% → 89%

  8. 08
    MercyhurstAce+2.6%

    Mercyhurst ace on Avery Stromberg

    Set 3 · LEMOYN 18-19 MERCYH · MERCYH 89% → 91%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
47622.04530031010.57.5
42315-.06713086010.55.5
4238-.125121601015
42211.00000000111.53.5
4103.3331112200002
22410-.200000201013
49317.35310000010.59.5
4205.400601400002
4114.000001600001
4000–011100001
4002.000100720000
3218.125000000002
2000–102010000
1000–100000000
1000–000000000
Team totals3023105.0672678391734576
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
411122.45501031111.513.5
47117.35310020233.510.5
4104.2502281300009
4328.125031510006
3317.28600110010.53.5
3124-.25000020010.51.5
46718-.056000311017
4002.000231610003
42210.000000100002
4002.0001001100000
37213.3850253032413
3004.000900000000
2113.000000000001
1001.000000000000
1000–300000000
1000–001110000
1000–001100000
Team totals4219115.200381711427781198

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Le Moyne vs Mercyhurst

Season series · Mercyhurst leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 LEMOYN · MERCYH 5

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 6 LEMOYNMERCYH 4

Set 2

14-25

Longest run 3 LEMOYNMERCYH 5

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 3 LEMOYNMERCYH 5

Set 4

15-25

Longest run 4 LEMOYNMERCYH 5

Bars above the line = Mercyhurst leads, below = Le Moyne leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Le Moyne

SlotSideout %Break %
1
33%7/21
54%7/13
2
39%7/18
30%3/10
3
43%6/14
30%3/10
4
57%4/7
25%2/8
5
50%4/8
50%4/8
6
80%4/5
0%0/4
All
44%32/73
36%19/53

Mercyhurst

SlotSideout %Break %
1
54%7/13
62%8/13
2
64%7/11
56%9/16
3
86%6/7
65%11/17
4
55%6/11
50%6/12
5
80%4/5
43%3/7
6
67%4/6
50%4/8
All
64%34/53
56%41/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

173 rallies

#LEMOYN-MERCYHSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1MERCYHMERCYH×3AceMercyhurst+0.3
20-2MERCYHMERCYH×3AceMercyhurstaced Haley Buescher+0.3
30-3MERCYHMERCYH×3AceMercyhurstaced Avery Stromberg+0.2
41-3MERCYHLEMOYNAttack errJulia Shepherd+0.2
51-4LEMOYNMERCYH×3KillAnna Loganset Alyssa Krause+0.2
61-5MERCYHMERCYH×3KillMadison Minerset Alyssa Krause+0.2
71-6MERCYHMERCYH×3Attack errBranwyn Lupton+0.2
82-6MERCYHLEMOYNKillBranwyn Luptonset Skylar Jehlen+0.1
92-7LEMOYNMERCYHKillAva Carneyset Alyssa Krause+0.1
102-8MERCYH
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.1
113-8MERCYHLEMOYNBad setAlyssa Krause+0.1
123-9LEMOYNMERCYH×4Serve errLe Moyne+0.1
133-10MERCYHMERCYH×4Attack errAvery Stromberg+0.1
143-11MERCYHMERCYH×4Attack errAvery Stromberg+0.1
153-12MERCYHMERCYH×4Attack errGabriella Schemidt·
164-12MERCYHLEMOYN×6BlockedPayton Melinblk Avery Stromberg, Gabriella Schemidt·
175-12LEMOYNLEMOYN×6AceLe Moyneaced Anna Logan+0.1
186-12LEMOYNLEMOYN×6AceLe Moyneaced Madison Miner+0.1
197-12LEMOYN
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.1
208-12LEMOYNLEMOYN×6KillCami Zajacset Jazmin Rodriguez+0.2
219-12LEMOYNLEMOYN×6AceLe Moyneaced Sydney Forcht+0.3
22–2310-13LEMOYN · MERCYH
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

·
2410-14LEMOYNMERCYHKillPayton Melinset Aliyah Angelici+0.2
2511-14MERCYHLEMOYNKillJazmin Rodriguezset Katie Barbour+0.2
2611-15LEMOYNMERCYHKillRoslyn Guerraset Aliyah Angelici+0.3
2712-15MERCYHLEMOYNBad setAva Carney+0.3
2812-16LEMOYNMERCYH×3KillRoslyn Guerraset Alyssa Krause+0.3
2912-17MERCYHMERCYH×3AceMercyhurst+0.2
3012-18MERCYHMERCYH×3AceMercyhurstaced Haley Buescher+0.1
3113-18MERCYHLEMOYNKillPayton Horanset Skylar Jehlen+0.1
3214-18LEMOYNLEMOYNBad setAlyssa Krause+0.2
3314-19LEMOYNMERCYH×3Attack errBranwyn Lupton+0.2
3414-20MERCYHMERCYH×3AceMercyhurst+0.1
3514-21MERCYHMERCYH×3KillJulia Shepherdset Alyssa Krause+0.1
3615-21MERCYHLEMOYNAttack errAnna Logan·
3715-22LEMOYNMERCYHKillMadison Minerset Aliyah Angelici+0.1
3816-22MERCYHLEMOYN×4KillAlise Evansset Katie Barbour·
3917-22LEMOYNLEMOYN×4Attack errRoslyn Guerra+0.1
4018-22LEMOYNLEMOYN×4Attack errRoslyn Guerra+0.1
4119-22LEMOYNLEMOYN×4Attack errRoslyn Guerra+0.3
4219-23LEMOYNMERCYHAttack errJazmin Rodriguez+0.3
4320-23MERCYHLEMOYN×5Serve errMercyhurst+0.2
4421-23LEMOYNLEMOYN×5AceLe Moyneaced Roslyn Guerra+0.5
4522-23LEMOYNLEMOYN×5Attack errAva Carney+0.9
4623-23LEMOYNLEMOYN×5Attack errJazmin Rodriguez+1.8
4724-23LEMOYNLEMOYN×5Attack errRoslyn Guerra+7.1
Set 2
10-1LEMOYNMERCYHKillAnna Loganset Alyssa Krause+0.9
20-2MERCYHMERCYHBlockedEiley Schneiderblk Erin Robbins+0.9
31-2MERCYHLEMOYN×3Attack errAnna Logan+0.9
42-2LEMOYNLEMOYN×3KillEiley Schneiderset Alyssa Krause+1.3
53-2LEMOYNLEMOYN×3Attack errErin Robbins+1.5
63-3LEMOYNMERCYH×5BlockedCami Zajacblk Julia Shepherd, Erin Robbins+1.2
73-4MERCYHMERCYH×5BlockedPayton Horanblk Erin Robbins+1.2
83-5MERCYHMERCYH×5KillErin Robbinsset Skylar Jehlen+1.0
93-6MERCYHMERCYH×5KillMadison Minerset Alyssa Krause+0.9
103-7MERCYHMERCYH×5BlockedBranwyn Luptonblk Madison Miner, Erin Robbins+0.7
114-7MERCYHLEMOYNServe errMercyhurst+0.6
124-8LEMOYNMERCYHKillErin Robbinsset Alyssa Krause+0.6
134-9MERCYHMERCYHKillMadison Minerset Alyssa Krause+0.6
145-9MERCYHLEMOYNServe errMercyhurst+0.5
155-10LEMOYNMERCYH×3KillJulia Shepherdset Alyssa Krause+0.5
165-11MERCYHMERCYH×3Attack errMadison Miner+0.4
175-12MERCYHMERCYH×3Attack errAlise Evans+0.3
186-12MERCYHLEMOYNBad setMia Mattingly+0.2
196-13LEMOYNMERCYHKillAnna Loganset Mya Comer+0.3
207-13MERCYHLEMOYNKillGabriella Schemidtset Katie Barbour+0.2
217-14LEMOYNMERCYHKillMia Mattinglyset Mya Comer+0.3
227-15MERCYHMERCYHKillErin Robbinsset Mya Comer+0.2
238-15MERCYHLEMOYNServe errMercyhurst+0.1
249-15LEMOYNLEMOYNBlockedRoslyn Guerrablk Eiley Schneider+0.3
259-16LEMOYNMERCYH×3KillPayton Melinset Mya Comer+0.3
269-17MERCYHMERCYH×3Attack errBranwyn Lupton+0.2
279-18MERCYHMERCYH×3BlockedJazmin Rodriguezblk Julia Shepherd+0.1
2810-18MERCYHLEMOYNKillSkylar Jehlenset Jazmin Rodriguez+0.1
2910-19LEMOYNMERCYH×3KillErin Robbinsset Alyssa Krause+0.1
3010-20MERCYHMERCYH×3AceMercyhurstaced Avery Stromberg·
3110-21MERCYHMERCYH×3Attack errBranwyn Lupton·
3211-21MERCYHLEMOYNKillBranwyn Luptonset Skylar Jehlen·
3311-22LEMOYNMERCYH×3KillJulia Shepherdset Alyssa Krause·
3411-23MERCYHMERCYH×3AceMercyhurst·
3511-24MERCYHMERCYH×3BlockedAvery Strombergblk Mia Mattingly, Julia Shepherd·
3612-24MERCYHLEMOYN×3Serve errMercyhurst·
3713-24LEMOYNLEMOYN×3Bad setMia Mattingly·
3814-24LEMOYNLEMOYN×3Attack errMia Mattingly·
3914-25LEMOYNMERCYHKillMadison Minerset Alyssa Krause+0.1
Set 3
10-1MERCYHMERCYH×3BlockedJazmin Rodriguezblk Julia Shepherd+0.9
20-2MERCYHMERCYH×3BlockedJazmin Rodriguezblk Ava Carney, Julia Shepherd+0.8
30-3MERCYHMERCYH×3AceMercyhurst+0.6
41-3MERCYHLEMOYNServe errMercyhurst+0.6
51-4LEMOYNMERCYH×3Serve errLe Moyne+0.6
61-5MERCYHMERCYH×3KillMadison Minerset Julia Shepherd+0.5
71-6MERCYHMERCYH×3Bad setPiper Hooey+0.4
82-6MERCYHLEMOYNKillGabriella Schemidtset Haley Buescher+0.4
92-7LEMOYNMERCYHKillMadison Minerset Sydney Forcht+0.4
103-7MERCYHLEMOYNKillGabriella Schemidtset Skylar Jehlen+0.4
113-8LEMOYNMERCYHKillJulia Shepherdset Alyssa Krause+0.4
124-8MERCYHLEMOYN×3KillPayton Horanset Haley Buescher+0.4
135-8LEMOYNLEMOYN×3BlockedPayton Melinblk Jazmin Rodriguez, Eiley Schneider+0.6
146-8LEMOYNLEMOYN×3KillJazmin Rodriguezset Piper Hooey+0.8
156-9LEMOYNMERCYHAttack errJazmin Rodriguez+0.7
167-9MERCYHLEMOYNServe errMercyhurst+0.8
177-10LEMOYNMERCYHServe errLe Moyne+0.7
188-10MERCYHLEMOYNKillAlise Evansset Amani Learry+0.8
198-11LEMOYNMERCYHKillRoslyn Guerraset Mya Comer+0.8
209-11MERCYHLEMOYNKillJazmin Rodriguezset Skylar Jehlen+0.8
2110-11LEMOYNLEMOYNKillGabriella Schemidtset Skylar Jehlen+1.3
2210-12LEMOYNMERCYHKillRoslyn Guerraset Sydney Forcht+1.0
2311-12MERCYHLEMOYNServe errMercyhurst+1.2
2411-13LEMOYNMERCYHKillJulia Shepherdset Alyssa Krause+1.1
2512-13MERCYHLEMOYNKillGabriella Schemidtset Skylar Jehlen+1.2
2612-14LEMOYNMERCYHKillErin Robbinsset Alyssa Krause+1.2
2713-14MERCYHLEMOYNKillKatie Barbourset Katie Barbour+1.3
2814-14LEMOYNLEMOYNBad setPayton Melin+1.9
2914-15LEMOYNMERCYHKillErin Robbinsset Mya Comer+1.6
3015-15MERCYHLEMOYNKillEiley Schneider+1.8
3115-16LEMOYNMERCYHBad setAlana Surigao+1.7
3216-16MERCYHLEMOYN×3Serve errMercyhurst+2.0
3317-16LEMOYNLEMOYN×3Attack errRoslyn Guerra+2.8
3418-16LEMOYNLEMOYN×3BlockedAva Carneyblk Alise Evans+3.4
3518-17LEMOYNMERCYH×5BlockedGabriella Schemidtblk Roslyn Guerra+2.4
3618-18MERCYHMERCYH×5KillRoslyn Guerraset Jazmin Rodriguez+2.8
3718-19MERCYHMERCYH×5AceMercyhurstaced Avery Stromberg+2.6
3818-20MERCYHMERCYH×5KillJulia Shepherdset Alyssa Krause+2.2
3918-21MERCYHMERCYH×5Attack errHaley Buescher+1.6
4019-21MERCYHLEMOYNKillJazmin Rodriguezset Katie Barbour+1.2
4119-22LEMOYNMERCYHKillRoslyn Guerraset Alyssa Krause+1.5
4220-22MERCYHLEMOYN×3KillGabriella Schemidtset Katie Barbour+1.2
4321-22LEMOYNLEMOYN×3KillAvery Strombergset Katie Barbour+2.5
4422-22LEMOYNLEMOYN×3KillGabriella Schemidtset Alise Evans+4.1
4522-23LEMOYNMERCYH×3KillJulia Shepherdset Alyssa Krause+3.9
4622-24MERCYHMERCYH×3AceMercyhurstaced Avery Stromberg+3.7
4722-25MERCYHMERCYH×3Attack errAvery Stromberg+1.8
Set 4
11-0LEMOYNLEMOYNKillGabriella Schemidtset Skylar Jehlen+0.8
21-1LEMOYNMERCYHServe errLe Moyne+0.6
31-2MERCYHMERCYHAceMercyhurst+0.7
42-2MERCYHLEMOYNKillGabriella Schemidtset Skylar Jehlen+0.6
52-3LEMOYNMERCYHServe errLe Moyne+0.6
62-4MERCYHMERCYHBad setSkylar Jehlen+0.6
73-4MERCYHLEMOYNKillAvery Strombergset Skylar Jehlen+0.6
83-5LEMOYNMERCYH×4KillMadison Minerset Alyssa Krause+0.5
93-6MERCYHMERCYH×4BlockedGabriella Schemidtblk Madison Miner+0.5
103-7MERCYHMERCYH×4AceMercyhurstaced Piper Hooey+0.4
113-8MERCYHMERCYH×4Attack errAlise Evans+0.3
124-8MERCYHLEMOYNServe errMercyhurst+0.3
134-9LEMOYNMERCYHServe errLe Moyne+0.3
144-10MERCYHMERCYHKillMadison Minerset Mya Comer+0.2
155-10MERCYHLEMOYNAttack errMadison Miner+0.2
166-10LEMOYNLEMOYNKillJazmin Rodriguezset Avery Stromberg+0.3
176-11LEMOYNMERCYH×5KillMadison Minerset Mya Comer+0.3
186-12MERCYHMERCYH×5Attack errAlise Evans+0.3
196-13MERCYHMERCYH×5KillMia Mattinglyset Mya Comer+0.2
206-14MERCYHMERCYH×5Attack errJazmin Rodriguez+0.1
216-15MERCYHMERCYH×5AceMercyhurstaced Avery Stromberg+0.1
227-15MERCYHLEMOYNKillKatie Barbourset Jazmin Rodriguez·
237-16LEMOYNMERCYHAttack errJazmin Rodriguez+0.1
248-16MERCYHLEMOYN×4Bad setSarah Barnum·
259-16LEMOYNLEMOYN×4KillJazmin Rodriguezset Gabriella Schemidt+0.1
2610-16LEMOYNLEMOYN×4Attack errErin Robbins+0.1
2711-16LEMOYNLEMOYN×4Attack errKalyani Olive+0.2
2811-17LEMOYNMERCYH×4Serve errLe Moyne+0.2
2911-18MERCYHMERCYH×4KillAlyssa Krauseset Kelsie Gaiter-Davis+0.2
3011-19MERCYHMERCYH×4AceMercyhurstaced Avery Stromberg+0.1
3111-20MERCYHMERCYH×4AceMercyhurstaced Jazmin Rodriguez·
3212-20MERCYHLEMOYNKillJazmin Rodriguezset Skylar Jehlen·
3312-21LEMOYNMERCYH×3KillKalyani Oliveset Alyssa Krause·
3412-22MERCYHMERCYH×3BlockedEiley Schneiderblk Erin Robbins·
3512-23MERCYHMERCYH×3KillErin Robbinsset Alyssa Krause·
3613-23MERCYHLEMOYNServe errMercyhurst·
3714-23LEMOYNLEMOYNAceLe Moyneaced Camryn Ketron·
3814-24LEMOYNMERCYHKillMadison Minerset Alyssa Krause·
3915-24MERCYHLEMOYNServe errMercyhurst·
4015-25LEMOYNMERCYHKillMia Mattinglyset Alyssa Krause·

Score shown after each rally, Le Moyne first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).