Central Conn. State def. Mercyhurst 3-1 Volleyball (Oct 23)

Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 23, 2026PSAC Sports Digital Network

3:1

RallyIQ pre-match: Mercyhurst 65.0% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 23, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Central Conn. St. won at Mercyhurst 3-1 (25-19, 19-25, 26-24, 26-24) on Fri, Oct 23, 2026. Central Conn. St.'s Olivia Keckler led with 16 kills, and Gabriella Burdier added 16 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 6:30 PM CT · final Oct 23

Set	1	2	3	4	Sets
C CONN	25	19	26	26	3
MERCYH	19	25	24	24	1

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Central Conn. St. beat Mercyhurst from a 35% pre-match call.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are Central Conn. St.'s win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. Mercyhurst went in at 65% by RallyIQ.

Turning point 1: Set 3 · Central Conn. St. 21–20 Mercyhurst
Down 20–21, Mercyhurst scored 3 straight to lead 23–21.
Central Conn. St. 47% → 25%
Turning point 2: Set 3 · Central Conn. St. 23–24 Mercyhurst
3 straight Central Conn. St. points turned a 23–24 deficit into a 26–24 lead. The match swung to Central Conn. St.
Central Conn. St. 29% → 67%
Turning point 3: Set 4 · Central Conn. St. 22–24 Mercyhurst
Central Conn. St. closed it, 4 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 26–24 and win the match 3–1.
Central Conn. St. 48% → >99%

Mercyhurst above 50Central Conn. St. belowMax swing 16.2%

Central Conn. St.Mercyhurst

Sideout %: Central Conn. St. 61.3·Mercyhurst 58.9
Break %: Central Conn. St. 41.1·Mercyhurst 38.7
Hitting: Central Conn. St. .217·Mercyhurst .244
Longest run: Central Conn. St. 7·Mercyhurst 4

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Mercyhurst above 50 · Central Conn. St. below

Biggest swing: 16.2% to Central Conn. St. — set 4, C CONN 26-24 MERCYH. Ace by Gabriella Burdier on Trinity Tatupu. MERCYH win probability 16% → 0%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

C CONN 36.7%63.3% MERCYH

Central Conn. St. wins

3-0

7.7%

3-1

13.2%

3-2

15.8%

Mercyhurst wins

3-0

19.0%

3-1

24.2%

3-2

20.0%

C CONN break %: 43.2% vs this opp
MERCYH break %: 45.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Gabriella BurdierAce+16.2%
Ace by Gabriella Burdier on Trinity Tatupu
Set 4 · C CONN 26-24 MERCYH · C CONN 84% → 100%
02
Breanna GinleyBlock+15.2%
Julia Shepherd stuffed by Breanna Ginley
Set 4 · C CONN 25-24 MERCYH · C CONN 69% → 84%
03
Olivia KecklerKill+14.2%
Kill by Olivia Keckler (set by Gabriella Burdier)
Set 4 · C CONN 24-24 MERCYH · C CONN 54% → 69%
04
Sydney ForchtAttack error+13.9%
Attack error by Sydney Forcht
Set 3 · C CONN 26-24 MERCYH · C CONN 53% → 67%
05
Hanley SchmidtKill+13.1%
Kill by Hanley Schmidt (set by Anja Milosevic)
Set 3 · C CONN 25-24 MERCYH · C CONN 40% → 53%
06
Julia ShepherdKill+10.2%
Kill by Julia Shepherd (set by Alyssa Krause)
Set 3 · C CONN 23-24 MERCYH · MERCYH 60% → 71%
07
Breanna GinleyKill+10.2%
Kill by Breanna Ginley (set by Anja Milosevic)
Set 3 · C CONN 24-24 MERCYH · C CONN 29% → 40%
08
Julia ShepherdAttack error+9.4%
Attack error by Julia Shepherd
Set 3 · C CONN 23-23 MERCYH · C CONN 30% → 40%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Central Conn. St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
5Olivia KecklerOPP	4	16	5	41	.268	0	2	3	9	1	0	2	1	19
2Breanna GinleyMB	4	12	3	29	.310	0	0	0	3	0	2	1	2.5	14.5
9Hanley SchmidtOH	4	11	5	23	.261	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	11
11Cullen WinterMB	4	10	3	22	.318	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	0.5	10.5
10Anja MilosevicS	4	5	1	16	.250	44	1	3	8	0	0	0	0	6
6Meg BerklandL/DS	4	0	1	1	-1.000	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	1
1Annabelle DenommeL/DS	4	0	1	2	-.500	0	3	3	3	1	0	0	0	3
4Gabriella BurdierDS	4	0	0	1	.000	4	3	2	16	0	0	0	0	3
7Aubrey StitcherOH	2	3	5	12	-.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
18Adele MacerMB	2	1	1	5	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
21Isabella Aviles	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		58	25	152	.217	52	10	12	49	4	2	4	4	96

Mercyhursthome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Julia ShepherdOPP	4	9	5	24	.167	2	0	0	3	0	0	5	2.5	11.5
13Mia MattinglyMB	4	6	1	13	.385	0	1	1	6	0	1	3	2.5	9.5
23Ava CarneyMB	4	5	1	12	.333	0	0	0	4	0	2	5	4.5	9.5
8Madison MinerOH	4	8	1	23	.304	1	0	2	8	1	0	1	0.5	8.5
21Alyssa KrauseDS	4	0	0	3	.000	20	2	1	6	0	0	0	0	2
26Anna LoganDS	4	1	1	6	.000	1	0	2	5	2	0	1	0.5	1.5
1Roslyn GuerraOH	4	11	4	26	.269	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	12
9Payton MelinOPP	4	4	1	12	.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	5.5
22Sydney ForchtL/DS	4	0	1	2	-.500	1	0	3	4	4	0	0	0	0
11Kelsie Gaiter-DavisDS	4	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	11	0	0	0	0	0
10Mya ComerS	3	0	0	1	.000	13	1	1	7	0	0	0	0	1
12Trinity TatupuOH	2	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	1
4Aliyah AngeliciS	1	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		45	15	123	.244	44	4	11	58	10	5	16	13	92

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Central Conn. St. vs Mercyhurst

Season series · Central Conn. St. leads 2-0

Fri, Oct 23, 2026Central Conn. St. at Mercyhurst · Central Conn. St. won 3-1This match
Sat, Oct 24, 2026Central Conn. St. at Mercyhurst · Central Conn. St. won 3-1Result →

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 C CONN · MERCYH 4

Set 1

25-19

Longest run 4 C CONNMERCYH 2

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 3 C CONNMERCYH 4

Set 3

26-24

Longest run 3 C CONNMERCYH 4

Set 4

26-24

Longest run 7 C CONNMERCYH 4

Bars above the line = Mercyhurst leads, below = Central Conn. St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Central Conn. St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%12/24	38%6/16
2	65%11/17	25%4/16
3	69%9/13	57%12/21
4	64%9/14	44%7/16
5	67%8/12	50%8/16
6	62%8/13	20%2/10
All	61%57/93	41%39/95

Mercyhurst

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	71%12/17	47%9/19
2	61%11/18	40%8/20
3	50%9/18	44%8/18
4	53%8/15	10%1/10
5	53%8/15	33%4/12
6	67%8/12	43%6/14
All	59%56/95	39%36/93

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

188 rallies

#	C CONN-MERCYH	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	MERCYH	MERCYH	Ace	Alyssa Krause		+2.1
2	1-1	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Anja Milosevic	set Hanley Schmidt	+1.8
3	1-2	C CONN	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+1.8
4	2-2	MERCYH	C CONN×4	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+1.8
5	3-2	C CONN	C CONN×4	Attack err	Julia Shepherd		+2.3
6	4-2	C CONN	C CONN×4	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Anja Milosevic	+2.4
7	5-2	C CONN	C CONN×4	Attack err	Madison Miner		+2.4
8	5-3	C CONN	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+1.8
9	5-4	MERCYH	MERCYH	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+2.3
10	6-4	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Anja Milosevic	set Alyssa Krause	+2.1
11	6-5	C CONN	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Anna Logan	+2.0
12	7-5	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Aubrey Stitcher	+2.2
13	7-6	C CONN	MERCYH	Kill	Madison Miner	set Aliyah Angelici	+2.0
14	8-6	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Anja Milosevic	+2.2
15	8-7	C CONN	MERCYH	Serve err	Central Conn. St.		+2.1
16	8-8	MERCYH	MERCYH	Attack err	Cullen Winter		+2.6
17	9-8	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+2.3
18	10-8	C CONN	C CONN	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Anja Milosevic	+2.8
19	10-9	C CONN	MERCYH	Serve err	Central Conn. St.		+2.2
20	10-10	MERCYH	MERCYH	Blocked	Hanley Schmidt	blk Roslyn Guerra	+2.8
21	11-10	MERCYH	C CONN	Blocked	Roslyn Guerra	blk Cullen Winter, Olivia Keckler	+2.5
22	12-10	C CONN	C CONN	Ace	Central Conn. St.	aced Sydney Forcht	+3.0
23	12-11	C CONN	MERCYH	Serve err	Central Conn. St.		+2.3
24	13-11	MERCYH	C CONN×4	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+2.6
25	14-11	C CONN	C CONN×4	Ace	Central Conn. St.	aced Sydney Forcht	+3.1
26	15-11	C CONN	C CONN×4	Ace	Central Conn. St.		+2.9
27	16-11	C CONN	C CONN×4	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+2.5
28	16-12	C CONN	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+1.6
29	16-13	MERCYH	MERCYH	Blocked	Olivia Keckler	blk Julia Shepherd, Mia Mattingly	+2.4
30	17-13	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Anja Milosevic	+2.5
31	17-14	C CONN	MERCYH	Kill	Madison Miner	set Alyssa Krause	+2.0
32	17-15	MERCYH	MERCYH	Attack err	Aubrey Stitcher		+2.9
33	18-15	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Aubrey Stitcher	set Anja Milosevic	+3.0
34	18-16	C CONN	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Aliyah Angelici	+2.5
35	19-16	MERCYH	C CONN×3	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+3.2
36	20-16	C CONN	C CONN×3	Ace	Central Conn. St.	aced Roslyn Guerra	+3.2
37	21-16	C CONN	C CONN×3	Bad set	Aliyah Angelici		+2.4
38	21-17	C CONN	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Aliyah Angelici	+1.2
39	22-17	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Anja Milosevic	+1.9
40	23-17	C CONN	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Gabriella Burdier	+1.3
41	23-18	C CONN	MERCYH	Kill	Payton Melin	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.4
42	24-18	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+0.8
43	24-19	C CONN	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Alyssa Krause	+0.2
44	25-19	MERCYH	C CONN	Attack err	Anna Logan		+0.4
Set 2
1	1-0	C CONN	C CONN	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Anja Milosevic	+2.7
2	1-1	C CONN	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+2.2
3	2-1	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+2.3
4	2-2	C CONN	MERCYH	Blocked	Meg Berkland	blk Anna Logan, Ava Carney	+2.2
5	3-2	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Anja Milosevic	+2.3
6	3-3	C CONN	MERCYH	Kill	Madison Miner	set Alyssa Krause	+2.3
7	4-3	MERCYH	C CONN×3	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+2.4
8	5-3	C CONN	C CONN×3	Ace	Central Conn. St.	aced Anna Logan	+3.0
9	6-3	C CONN	C CONN×3	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Alyssa Krause	+3.0
10	6-4	C CONN	MERCYH	Serve err	Central Conn. St.		+2.2
11	6-5	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Madison Miner	set Mya Comer	+2.9
12	7-5	MERCYH	C CONN	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+2.6
13	8-5	C CONN	C CONN	Ace	Central Conn. St.	aced Anna Logan	+3.1
14	8-6	C CONN	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Ava Carney		+2.3
15	8-7	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Aubrey Stitcher		+3.0
16	8-8	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Mya Comer	+3.1
17	8-9	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Kill	Payton Melin	set Mya Comer	+3.1
18	9-9	MERCYH	C CONN	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+2.6
19	9-10	C CONN	MERCYH	Blocked	Aubrey Stitcher	blk Payton Melin, Mia Mattingly	+2.7
20	10-10	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Anja Milosevic	set Aubrey Stitcher	+2.7
21	11-10	C CONN	C CONN	Kill	Aubrey Stitcher	set Anja Milosevic	+3.5
22	11-11	C CONN	MERCYH	Kill	Payton Melin	set Mya Comer	+2.8
23	11-12	MERCYH	MERCYH	Blocked	Cullen Winter	blk Julia Shepherd, Ava Carney	+3.5
24	12-12	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+2.9
25	12-13	C CONN	MERCYH	Attack err	Hanley Schmidt		+3.0
26	12-14	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Kelsie Gaiter-Davis	+3.5
27	13-14	MERCYH	C CONN	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+2.8
28	13-15	C CONN	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+3.0
29	14-15	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Gabriella Burdier	+2.9
30	15-15	C CONN	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Anja Milosevic	+4.0
31	15-16	C CONN	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Alyssa Krause	+3.4
32	16-16	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Anja Milosevic	+3.5
33	16-17	C CONN	MERCYH	Serve err	Central Conn. St.		+3.6
34	16-18	MERCYH	MERCYH	Attack err	Annabelle Denomme		+4.2
35	17-18	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Anja Milosevic	+3.3
36	17-19	C CONN	MERCYH×3	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Mya Comer	+3.7
37	17-20	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Attack err	Aubrey Stitcher		+3.9
38	17-21	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Blocked	Aubrey Stitcher	blk Payton Melin	+3.0
39	18-21	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Anja Milosevic	+1.7
40	18-22	C CONN	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Mya Comer	+2.5
41	18-23	MERCYH	MERCYH	Blocked	Hanley Schmidt	blk Julia Shepherd, Ava Carney	+1.7
42	19-23	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Aubrey Stitcher	set Anja Milosevic	+0.6
43	19-24	C CONN	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Alyssa Krause	+1.2
44	19-25	MERCYH	MERCYH	Attack err	Anja Milosevic		+0.4
Set 3
1	0-1	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Anna Logan	set Alyssa Krause	+2.9
2	1-1	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Anja Milosevic	+2.5
3	2-1	C CONN	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Anja Milosevic	+3.1
4	2-2	C CONN	MERCYH	Serve err	Central Conn. St.		+2.5
5	3-2	MERCYH	C CONN	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+2.7
6	3-3	C CONN	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+2.6
7	4-3	MERCYH	C CONN×3	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+2.8
8	5-3	C CONN	C CONN×3	Kill	Anja Milosevic		+3.4
9	6-3	C CONN	C CONN×3	Ace	Central Conn. St.	aced Madison Miner	+3.4
10	6-4	C CONN	MERCYH	Serve err	Central Conn. St.		+2.6
11	7-4	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+2.9
12	7-5	C CONN	MERCYH	Attack err	Olivia Keckler		+2.6
13	8-5	MERCYH	C CONN	Bad set	Madison Miner		+3.0
14	8-6	C CONN	MERCYH	Blocked	Cullen Winter	blk Mia Mattingly	+2.7
15	9-6	MERCYH	C CONN×3	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+3.1
16	10-6	C CONN	C CONN×3	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+3.5
17	11-6	C CONN	C CONN×3	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+3.2
18	11-7	C CONN	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra		+2.2
19	11-8	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Ace	Alyssa Krause		+3.1
20	11-9	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Olivia Keckler		+3.5
21	11-10	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Anja Milosevic	+3.8
22	12-10	MERCYH	C CONN	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra		+3.5
23	12-11	C CONN	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+3.2
24	13-11	MERCYH	C CONN	Blocked	Ava Carney	blk Breanna Ginley	+3.6
25	13-12	C CONN	MERCYH	Blocked	Breanna Ginley	blk Madison Miner, Ava Carney	+3.3
26	14-12	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+3.8
27	14-13	C CONN	MERCYH	Kill	Trinity Tatupu	set Julia Shepherd	+3.4
28	15-13	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Anja Milosevic	+3.9
29	16-13	C CONN	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+4.6
30	16-14	C CONN	MERCYH	Attack err	Breanna Ginley		+3.2
31	17-14	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+4.0
32	17-15	C CONN	MERCYH	Kill	Payton Melin	set Sydney Forcht	+3.3
33	17-16	MERCYH	MERCYH	Attack err	Hanley Schmidt		+4.7
34	18-16	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Gabriella Burdier	+4.6
35	18-17	C CONN	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Mya Comer	+4.1
36	19-17	MERCYH	C CONN	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra		+4.9
37	20-17	C CONN	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Gabriella Burdier	+5.5
38	20-18	C CONN	MERCYH×3	Serve err	Central Conn. St.		+3.5
39	20-19	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Blocked	Breanna Ginley	blk Ava Carney, Julia Shepherd	+5.5
40	20-20	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Bad set	Olivia Keckler		+6.5
41	21-20	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+6.2
42	21-21	C CONN	MERCYH×3	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+6.0
43	21-22	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Kill	Madison Miner	set Alyssa Krause	+8.0
44	21-23	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Blocked	Olivia Keckler	blk Julia Shepherd, Mia Mattingly	+7.6
45	22-23	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Anja Milosevic	set Meg Berkland	+4.8
46	23-23	C CONN	C CONN	Attack err	Julia Shepherd		+9.4
47	23-24	C CONN	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+10.2
48	24-24	MERCYH	C CONN×3	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Anja Milosevic	+10.2
49	25-24	C CONN	C CONN×3	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+13.1
50	26-24	C CONN	C CONN×3	Attack err	Sydney Forcht		+13.9
Set 4
1	0-1	C CONN	MERCYH	Serve err	Central Conn. St.		+2.8
2	1-1	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Adele Macer	set Anja Milosevic	+2.9
3	1-2	C CONN	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Julia Shepherd	+2.9
4	1-3	MERCYH	MERCYH	Blocked	Hanley Schmidt	blk Ava Carney	+3.3
5	2-3	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Anja Milosevic	+2.8
6	2-4	C CONN	MERCYH	Kill	Madison Miner	set Alyssa Krause	+2.8
7	3-4	MERCYH	C CONN	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+2.8
8	3-5	C CONN	MERCYH×4	Serve err	Central Conn. St.		+2.9
9	3-6	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Kill	Madison Miner	set Mya Comer	+3.3
10	3-7	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Kill	Madison Miner	set Roslyn Guerra	+3.0
11	3-8	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Ace	Mya Comer	aced Annabelle Denomme	+2.6
12	4-8	MERCYH	C CONN×5	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+1.9
13	5-8	C CONN	C CONN×5	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+2.8
14	6-8	C CONN	C CONN×5	Kill	Breanna Ginley		+3.3
15	7-8	C CONN	C CONN×5	Attack err	Payton Melin		+3.7
16	8-8	C CONN	C CONN×5	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Anja Milosevic	+4.1
17	8-9	C CONN	MERCYH	Serve err	Central Conn. St.		+3.4
18	9-9	MERCYH	C CONN	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra		+3.5
19	9-10	C CONN	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Mya Comer	+3.6
20	9-11	MERCYH	MERCYH	Ace	Mia Mattingly	aced Olivia Keckler	+4.1
21	10-11	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+3.4
22	10-12	C CONN	MERCYH×4	Serve err	Central Conn. St.		+3.5
23	10-13	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Adele Macer		+3.9
24	10-14	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+3.4
25	10-15	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Madison Miner	+2.8
26	11-15	MERCYH	C CONN	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+1.9
27	11-16	C CONN	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Alyssa Krause	+2.4
28	11-17	MERCYH	MERCYH	Attack err	Olivia Keckler		+2.2
29	12-17	MERCYH	C CONN	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+1.3
30	12-18	C CONN	MERCYH	Kill	Ava Carney	set Alyssa Krause	+1.8
31	13-18	MERCYH	C CONN	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+1.2
32	14-18	C CONN	C CONN	Attack err	Mia Mattingly		+2.2
33	14-19	C CONN	MERCYH	Serve err	Central Conn. St.		+2.4
34	15-19	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+1.7
35	15-20	C CONN	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Mya Comer	+2.3
36	16-20	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Anja Milosevic	+1.6
37	16-21	C CONN	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Mya Comer	+2.3
38	17-21	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Anja Milosevic	+1.4
39	17-22	C CONN	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Mya Comer	+2.2
40	17-23	MERCYH	MERCYH	Blocked	Hanley Schmidt	blk Ava Carney	+1.3
41	18-23	MERCYH	C CONN	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Anja Milosevic	+0.4
42	19-23	C CONN	C CONN	Ace	Meg Berkland	aced Sydney Forcht	+1.0
43	19-24	C CONN	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Mya Comer	+1.6
44	20-24	MERCYH	C CONN×7	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+0.4
45	21-24	C CONN	C CONN×7	Attack err	Julia Shepherd		+1.2
46	22-24	C CONN	C CONN×7	Ace	Gabriella Burdier	aced Sydney Forcht	+2.7
47	23-24	C CONN	C CONN×7	Blocked	Julia Shepherd	blk Breanna Ginley, Olivia Keckler	+6.2
48	24-24	C CONN	C CONN×7	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Gabriella Burdier	+14.2
49	25-24	C CONN	C CONN×7	Blocked	Julia Shepherd	blk Breanna Ginley	+15.2
50	26-24	C CONN	C CONN×7	Ace	Gabriella Burdier	aced Trinity Tatupu	+16.2

Score shown after each rally, Central Conn. St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Central Conn. St. def. Mercyhurst 3–1

Central Conn. St. beat Mercyhurst from a 35% pre-match call.