Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 16, 2026

Manhattan def. Saint Peter's 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Saint Peter's 70.7% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 16, 4:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Manhattan won at Saint Peter's 3-1 (25-21, 25-15, 23-25, 25-16) on Fri, Oct 16, 2026. Manhattan's Mikalah Curran led with 12 kills, and Emma Francesconi added 11 digs.

Data through · final Oct 16

Set1234Sets
MANHAT252523253
ST PTR211525161

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Manhattan beat Saint Peter's from a 29% pre-match call.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are Manhattan's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. Pre-match, Saint Peter's was RallyIQ's 71% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 3 · Manhattan 11–9 Saint Peter's

    Down 9–11, Saint Peter's scored 6 straight to lead 15–11.

    Manhattan 84% → 67%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 3 · Manhattan 22–22 Saint Peter's

    Saint Peter's won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 25–23 and pull within 1–2.

    Manhattan 78% → 63%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · Manhattan 11–8 Saint Peter's

    Manhattan scored 5 straight to stretch an 11–8 lead to 16–8.

    Manhattan 80% → 97%

Saint Peter's above 50Manhattan belowMax swing 8.7%

ManhattanSaint Peter's

Sideout %
Manhattan 62.8·Saint Peter's 49.5
Break %
Manhattan 50.5·Saint Peter's 37.2
Hitting
Manhattan .344·Saint Peter's .158
Longest run
Manhattan 5·Saint Peter's 6

Abby Morreale
10 kills on .563, 16.5 points; 2 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Saint Peter's above 50 · Manhattan below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+8.7% ST PTRrally 175 · set 4

Biggest swing: 8.7% to Saint Peter's — set 3, MANHAT 23-25 ST PTR. Attack error by Katie Powers. ST PTR win probability 29% → 37%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MANHAT 39.3%60.7% ST PTR

Manhattan wins

3-0
8.5%
3-1
14.3%
3-2
16.5%

Saint Peter's wins

3-0
17.6%
3-1
23.2%
3-2
19.9%
MANHAT break %
40.8% vs this opp
ST PTR break %
42.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Katie PowersAttack error+8.7%

    Attack error by Katie Powers

    Set 3 · MANHAT 23-25 ST PTR · ST PTR 29% → 37%

  2. 02
    Katie PowersAttack error+6.8%

    Attack error by Katie Powers

    Set 3 · MANHAT 23-24 ST PTR · ST PTR 22% → 29%

  3. 03

    Kill by Hanna Kaczynska (set by Emilia Kuzniar)

    Set 3 · MANHAT 22-22 ST PTR · MANHAT 72% → 78%

  4. 04
    Emma FrancesconiAttack error+5.4%

    Attack error by Emma Francesconi

    Set 3 · MANHAT 22-23 ST PTR · ST PTR 22% → 27%

  5. 05

    Kill by Emma Francesconi (set by Ori Briger)

    Set 3 · MANHAT 23-23 ST PTR · MANHAT 73% → 78%

  6. 06

    Addison Baglio stuffed by Katie Powers & Abby Morreale

    Set 4 · MANHAT 11-7 ST PTR · MANHAT 78% → 83%

  7. 07
    Abby MorrealeBlock+4.6%

    Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez stuffed by Abby Morreale

    Set 4 · MANHAT 9-5 ST PTR · MANHAT 77% → 82%

  8. 08

    Julia Whaley stuffed by Helenn Montilla & Mikalah Curran

    Set 4 · MANHAT 5-2 ST PTR · MANHAT 71% → 76%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
410116.56312310254.516.5
412222.45500031031.513.5
49429.17211111402111
46010.60000000153.59.5
48422.182100100219
4002.0002821700002
411322.36400030031.512.5
4000–210310001
4000–113900001
4000–18011000000
31011.000200700001
1001.000000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals5714125.34454795563201398
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
411427.2592106002113
48525.12000053010.58.5
48314.35700000010.58.5
46420.100000200217
4203.667112610003
4000–2110700001
4000–3001210000
37725.000000600007
36416.125000100006
2000–011220001
2000–1111200001
2000–810100001
1003.000000000000
Team totals4827133.158466450706377

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Manhattan vs Saint Peter's

Season series · Manhattan leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 MANHAT · ST PTR 6

Set 1

25-21

Longest run 4 MANHATST PTR 3

Set 2

25-15

Longest run 5 MANHATST PTR 2

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 3 MANHATST PTR 6

Set 4

25-16

Longest run 5 MANHATST PTR 2

Bars above the line = Saint Peter's leads, below = Manhattan leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Manhattan

SlotSideout %Break %
1
63%10/16
50%9/18
2
53%8/15
58%11/19
3
73%8/11
50%8/16
4
67%8/12
60%12/20
5
80%8/10
33%4/12
6
50%7/14
42%5/12
All
63%49/78
51%49/97

Saint Peter's

SlotSideout %Break %
1
45%9/20
43%6/14
2
40%8/20
40%6/15
3
50%8/16
33%4/12
4
50%8/16
33%4/12
5
73%8/11
20%2/10
6
50%7/14
47%7/15
All
49%48/97
37%29/78

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

175 rallies

#MANHAT-ST PTRSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1ST PTRST PTRKillAddison Baglioset Alondra Fargas+2.1
21-1ST PTRMANHAT×4BlockedVictoria Pruvostblk Emma Francesconi, Abby Morreale+1.5
32-1MANHATMANHAT×4Attack errJulia Whaley+2.3
43-1MANHATMANHAT×4KillMikalah Curranset Ori Briger+2.4
54-1MANHATMANHAT×4KillKatie Powersset Ori Briger+2.5
64-2MANHATST PTRServe errManhattan+1.6
75-2ST PTRMANHATKillAbby Morrealeset Ori Briger+1.8
85-3MANHATST PTRServe errManhattan+1.6
96-3ST PTRMANHAT×3KillMikalah Curranset Ori Briger+1.9
107-3MANHATMANHAT×3KillHanna Kaczynskaset Emilia Kuzniar+2.5
118-3MANHATMANHAT×3BlockedNatasha Tejadablk Mikalah Curran, Helenn Montilla+2.3
128-4MANHATST PTR×3KillKarolina T. Rodriguez Mendezset Meleksu Ozmen+1.4
138-5ST PTRST PTR×3Attack errHanna Kaczynska+2.2
148-6ST PTRST PTR×3KillAddison Baglioset Meleksu Ozmen+2.4
159-6ST PTRMANHATServe errSaint Peter's+2.0
1610-6MANHATMANHATKillEmma Francesconiset Julia Pfleger+2.7
1710-7MANHATST PTRServe errManhattan+1.6
1811-7ST PTRMANHATKillHelenn Montillaset Emilia Kuzniar+2.0
1911-8MANHATST PTRKillAddison Baglioset Meleksu Ozmen+1.6
2012-8ST PTRMANHAT×3BlockedAddison Baglioblk Hanna Kaczynska, Abby Morreale+2.0
2113-8MANHATMANHAT×3KillJulia Pflegerset Abby Morreale+2.5
2214-8MANHATMANHAT×3BlockedVictoria Pruvostblk Abby Morreale, Katie Powers+2.1
2314-9MANHATST PTRKillAddison Baglioset Alondra Fargas+1.1
2414-10ST PTRST PTRAttack errEmma Francesconi+1.9
2515-10ST PTRMANHATKillEmma Francesconiset Anna Duncan+1.8
2616-10MANHATMANHATBlockedJulia Whaleyblk Abby Morreale+2.1
2716-11MANHATST PTR×3KillVictoria Pruvostset Alondra Fargas+1.0
2816-12ST PTRST PTR×3Attack errMikalah Curran+1.9
2916-13ST PTRST PTR×3Attack errAbby Morreale+2.4
3017-13ST PTRMANHAT×3KillMikalah Curranset Ori Briger+2.2
3118-13MANHATMANHAT×3BlockedKarolina T. Rodriguez Mendezblk Helenn Montilla+2.5
3219-13MANHATMANHAT×3AceManhattanaced Addison Baglio+1.9
3319-14MANHATST PTRKillKarolina T. Rodriguez Mendezset Alondra Fargas+0.8
3419-15ST PTRST PTRAceSaint Peter'saced Emma Francesconi+1.6
3520-15ST PTRMANHATServe errSaint Peter's+1.8
3621-15MANHATMANHATKillMikalah Curran+1.6
3721-16MANHATST PTRKillBriana Tutenset Meleksu Ozmen+0.6
3822-16ST PTRMANHATKillHanna Kaczynskaset Emilia Kuzniar+1.0
3922-17MANHATST PTRKillNatasha Tejadaset Meleksu Ozmen+0.4
4023-17ST PTRMANHATAttack errAddison Baglio+0.8
4123-18MANHATST PTRKillNatasha Tejadaset Meleksu Ozmen+0.3
4223-19ST PTRST PTRKillVictoria Pruvostset Ioanna Ververaki+0.7
4324-19ST PTRMANHATKillAbby Morrealeset Emilia Kuzniar+1.1
4424-20MANHATST PTRKillBriana Tutenset Alondra Fargas+0.2
4524-21ST PTRST PTRKillVictoria Pruvostset Alondra Fargas+0.8
4625-21ST PTRMANHATKillEmma Francesconiset Ori Briger+1.4
Set 2
11-0MANHATMANHAT×3KillAbby Morrealeset Ori Briger+2.9
22-0MANHATMANHAT×3AceManhattanaced Alicia Valladares+3.1
33-0MANHATMANHAT×3KillAbby Morrealeset Ori Briger+3.1
43-1MANHATST PTRKillJulia Whaleyset Alondra Fargas+2.0
54-1ST PTRMANHATKillMikalah Curranset Ori Briger+2.3
65-1MANHATMANHATAttack errVictoria Pruvost+3.1
75-2MANHATST PTRKillJulia Whaleyset Alondra Fargas+1.9
85-3ST PTRST PTRAceSaint Peter'saced Emma Francesconi+3.0
96-3ST PTRMANHATKillKatie Powersset Ori Briger+2.4
106-4MANHATST PTRKillValeria Pagan Munozset Ioanna Ververaki+2.1
117-4ST PTRMANHAT×3KillHanna Kaczynskaset Emilia Kuzniar+2.5
128-4MANHATMANHAT×3AceManhattanaced Addison Baglio+3.3
139-4MANHATMANHAT×3BlockedKarolina T. Rodriguez Mendezblk Helenn Montilla, Emma Francesconi+3.1
149-5MANHATST PTRKillKarolina T. Rodriguez Mendezset Meleksu Ozmen+1.8
1510-5ST PTRMANHATKillHelenn Montillaset Emilia Kuzniar+2.3
1610-6MANHATST PTRKillKarolina T. Rodriguez Mendezset Meleksu Ozmen+1.8
1711-6ST PTRMANHAT×3BlockedValeria Pagan Munozblk Hanna Kaczynska, Abby Morreale+2.3
1812-6MANHATMANHAT×3AceManhattanaced Ioanna Ververaki+2.7
1913-6MANHATMANHAT×3AceManhattanaced Alicia Valladares+2.2
2013-7MANHATST PTRServe errManhattan+1.1
2114-7ST PTRMANHATKillKatie Powersset Ori Briger+1.6
2214-8MANHATST PTRKillValeria Pagan Munozset Alondra Fargas+1.1
2314-9ST PTRST PTRAttack errKatie Powers+2.0
2415-9ST PTRMANHATKillAbby Morrealeset Ori Briger+2.0
2515-10MANHATST PTRKillVictoria Pruvostset Alondra Fargas+1.4
2615-11ST PTRST PTRBlockedMikalah Curranblk Victoria Pruvost, Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez+2.5
2716-11ST PTRMANHATServe errSaint Peter's+2.4
2816-12MANHATST PTRServe errManhattan+1.7
2917-12ST PTRMANHAT×5KillHanna Kaczynskaset Emilia Kuzniar+2.4
3018-12MANHATMANHAT×5KillHanna Kaczynskaset Kaitlyn Doyle+2.5
3119-12MANHATMANHAT×5Attack errAddison Baglio+1.7
3220-12MANHATMANHAT×5KillEmma Francesconiset Emilia Kuzniar+1.0
3321-12MANHATMANHAT×5Attack errKarolina T. Rodriguez Mendez+0.5
3421-13MANHATST PTRKillKarolina T. Rodriguez Mendezset Meleksu Ozmen+0.1
3521-14ST PTRST PTRKillValeria Pagan Munozset Meleksu Ozmen+0.4
3622-14ST PTRMANHATKillHanna Kaczynskaset Emilia Kuzniar+0.5
3723-14MANHATMANHATAceManhattanaced Briana Tuten+0.2
3823-15MANHATST PTRKillValeria Pagan Munozset Meleksu Ozmen·
3924-15ST PTRMANHATKillHanna Kaczynskaset Anna Duncan+0.1
4025-15MANHATMANHATAttack errValeria Pagan Munoz·
Set 3
10-1ST PTRST PTRKillAddison Baglioset Alondra Fargas+2.3
21-1ST PTRMANHATKillKatie Powersset Ori Briger+1.7
32-1MANHATMANHATAttack errNatasha Tejada+2.6
42-2MANHATST PTRKillKarolina T. Rodriguez Mendezset Alondra Fargas+1.8
52-3ST PTRST PTRKillNatasha Tejadaset Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez+2.4
63-3ST PTRMANHAT×3KillMikalah Curranset Katie Powers+1.8
74-3MANHATMANHAT×3KillMikalah Curranset Natasha Tejada+2.7
85-3MANHATMANHAT×3Attack errValeria Pagan Munoz+2.8
95-4MANHATST PTRServe errManhattan+1.9
105-5ST PTRST PTRKillValeria Pagan Munozset Zumra Yavuz+2.7
116-5ST PTRMANHAT×3KillHelenn Montillaset Ori Briger+2.1
127-5MANHATMANHAT×3Attack errVictoria Pruvost+3.0
138-5MANHATMANHAT×3Attack errValeria Pagan Munoz+3.0
148-6MANHATST PTRKillJulia Whaleyset Zumra Yavuz+1.9
158-7ST PTRST PTRBlockedHanna Kaczynskablk Victoria Pruvost, Julia Whaley+2.9
169-7ST PTRMANHATKillHelenn Montillaset Emilia Kuzniar+2.3
1710-7MANHATMANHATBad setZumra Yavuz+3.2
1810-8MANHATST PTRServe errManhattan+2.0
1910-9ST PTRST PTRAceSaint Peter'saced Anna Duncan+3.0
2011-9ST PTRMANHATKillHelenn Montillaset Emilia Kuzniar+2.4
2111-10MANHATST PTR×6KillKarolina T. Rodriguez Mendezset Alondra Fargas+2.2
2211-11ST PTRST PTR×6KillKarolina T. Rodriguez Mendezset Alondra Fargas+3.2
2311-12ST PTRST PTR×6KillAddison Baglioset Ioanna Ververaki+3.2
2411-13ST PTRST PTR×6BlockedHanna Kaczynskablk Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez, Addison Baglio+3.0
2511-14ST PTRST PTR×6AceSaint Peter'saced Emma Francesconi+2.7
2611-15ST PTRST PTR×6Attack errEmma Francesconi+2.2
2712-15ST PTRMANHATKillAbby Morrealeset Ori Briger+1.3
2813-15MANHATMANHATBad setAlondra Fargas+2.5
2913-16MANHATST PTRKillAddison Baglioset Alondra Fargas+2.0
3014-16ST PTRMANHATKillKatie Powersset Ori Briger+1.8
3114-17MANHATST PTR×3KillNatasha Tejadaset Alondra Fargas+2.1
3214-18ST PTRST PTR×3Attack errKatie Powers+2.4
3314-19ST PTRST PTR×3AceSaint Peter'saced Emma Francesconi+1.7
3415-19ST PTRMANHAT×3KillMikalah Curranset Ori Briger+0.8
3516-19MANHATMANHAT×3Attack errValeria Pagan Munoz+1.8
3617-19MANHATMANHAT×3BlockedNatasha Tejadablk Helenn Montilla, Mikalah Curran+2.6
3717-20MANHATST PTRKillJulia Whaleyset Briana Tuten+2.4
3818-20ST PTRMANHATKillMikalah Curranset Ori Briger+1.9
3919-20MANHATMANHATBlockedValeria Pagan Munozblk Hanna Kaczynska, Helenn Montilla+3.8
4019-21MANHATST PTRKillJulia Whaleyset Zumra Yavuz+3.3
4120-21ST PTRMANHATKillHanna Kaczynskaset Emilia Kuzniar+2.9
4220-22MANHATST PTRKillJulia Whaleyset Zumra Yavuz+3.7
4321-22ST PTRMANHATKillEmma Francesconiset Emilia Kuzniar+3.0
4422-22MANHATMANHATKillHanna Kaczynskaset Emilia Kuzniar+6.3
4522-23MANHATST PTRAttack errEmma Francesconi+5.4
4623-23ST PTRMANHATKillEmma Francesconiset Ori Briger+5.3
4723-24MANHATST PTRAttack errKatie Powers+6.8
4823-25ST PTRST PTRAttack errKatie Powers+8.7
Set 4
11-0MANHATMANHATKillEmma Francesconiset Ori Briger+4.0
21-1MANHATST PTRKillKarolina T. Rodriguez Mendezset Alondra Fargas+2.7
32-1ST PTRMANHATKillAbby Morrealeset Ori Briger+3.0
43-1MANHATMANHATKillMikalah Curranset Emma Francesconi+4.3
53-2MANHATST PTRKillValeria Pagan Munozset Alondra Fargas+2.8
64-2ST PTRMANHATKillAbby Morrealeset Ori Briger+3.2
75-2MANHATMANHATBlockedJulia Whaleyblk Helenn Montilla, Mikalah Curran+4.4
85-3MANHATST PTRServe errAbby Morreale+2.9
96-3ST PTRMANHATKillKatie Powersset Ori Briger+3.3
106-4MANHATST PTRKillJulia Whaleyset Zumra Yavuz+2.9
117-4ST PTRMANHATKillHelenn Montillaset Emilia Kuzniar+3.4
127-5MANHATST PTRServe errKaitlyn Doyle+3.0
138-5ST PTRMANHATKillHanna Kaczynskaset Emilia Kuzniar+3.5
149-5MANHATMANHATBlockedKarolina T. Rodriguez Mendezblk Abby Morreale+4.6
159-6MANHATST PTRKillVictoria Pruvostset Zumra Yavuz+2.8
169-7ST PTRST PTRKillNatasha Tejadaset Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez+4.4
1710-7ST PTRMANHATKillEmma Francesconiset Ori Briger+3.6
1811-7MANHATMANHATBlockedAddison Baglioblk Katie Powers, Abby Morreale+4.8
1911-8MANHATST PTRKillKarolina T. Rodriguez Mendezset Alondra Fargas+2.9
2012-8ST PTRMANHAT×5Attack errAddison Baglio+3.6
2113-8MANHATMANHAT×5KillAbby Morrealeset Ori Briger+4.4
2214-8MANHATMANHAT×5KillKatie Powersset Julia Pfleger+3.7
2315-8MANHATMANHAT×5KillAbby Morrealeset Ori Briger+2.9
2416-8MANHATMANHAT×5Attack errNatasha Tejada+2.1
2516-9MANHATST PTRKillValeria Pagan Munozset Alondra Fargas+0.9
2617-9ST PTRMANHATKillMikalah Curranset Ori Briger+1.4
2718-9MANHATMANHATAceAbby Morrealeaced Addison Baglio+1.3
2818-10MANHATST PTRKillNatasha Tejadaset Alondra Fargas+0.5
2918-11ST PTRST PTRAceZumra Yavuzaced Mikalah Curran+1.0
3019-11ST PTRMANHATKillMikalah Curranset Ori Briger+1.2
3119-12MANHATST PTRKillVictoria Pruvostset Zumra Yavuz+0.6
3220-12ST PTRMANHATKillHanna Kaczynskaset Emilia Kuzniar+1.0
3321-12MANHATMANHATKillEmma Francesconiset Emilia Kuzniar+0.7
3421-13MANHATST PTRKillJulia Whaleyset Zumra Yavuz+0.2
3521-14ST PTRST PTRAttack errEmma Francesconi+0.5
3622-14ST PTRMANHATServe errBriana Tuten+0.7
3722-15MANHATST PTRKillAddison Baglioset Briana Tuten+0.2
3823-15ST PTRMANHATBad setNatasha Tejada+0.5
3924-15MANHATMANHATAttack errValeria Pagan Munoz+0.2
4024-16MANHATST PTRKillKarolina T. Rodriguez Mendezset Alondra Fargas·
4125-16ST PTRMANHATKillKatie Powersset Ori Briger·

Score shown after each rally, Manhattan first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).