Final · 5 setsThu, Oct 8, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Central Ark. def. Tarleton St. 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Tarleton St. 72.1% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 8, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Central Ark. won at Tarleton St. 3-2 (12-25, 18-25, 25-15, 25-15, 15-10) on Thu, Oct 8, 2026. Ella Chaney led Central Ark. with 13 kills; Tarleton St.'s Madison Frank had a match-high 15.

Data through · final Oct 8

Set12345Sets
C ARK12182525153
TARLET25251515102

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Tatelyn Brandsma served 5 aces, and Central Ark. needed every one.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are Central Ark.'s RallyIQ win probability before and after each. RallyIQ had Tarleton St. at 72% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 5 · Central Ark. 2–2 Tarleton St.

    5 straight Central Ark. points broke a 2–2 tie and made it 7–2. The match swung to Central Ark.

    Central Ark. 42% → 85%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Central Ark. 11–7 Tarleton St.

    Tarleton St. scored 3 straight to cut a 7–11 deficit to 10–11.

    Central Ark. 88% → 62%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Central Ark. 11–10 Tarleton St.

    Central Ark. closed it, 4 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 15–10 and win the match 3–2.

    Central Ark. 62% → >99%

Tarleton St. above 50Central Ark. belowMax swing 14.1%

Central Ark.Tarleton St.

Sideout %
Central Ark. 52.7·Tarleton St. 50.0
Break %
Central Ark. 50.0·Tarleton St. 47.3
Hitting
Central Ark. .323·Tarleton St. .250
Longest run
Central Ark. 6·Tarleton St. 6

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Tarleton St. above 50 · Central Ark. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+14.1% C ARKrally 185 · set 5

Biggest swing: 14.1% to Central Ark. — set 5, C ARK 13-10 TARLET. Kill by Greyson Button (set by Tatelyn Brandsma). TARLET win probability 25% → 11%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

C ARK 37.2%62.8% TARLET

Central Ark. wins

3-0
7.8%
3-1
13.4%
3-2
15.9%

Tarleton St. wins

3-0
18.7%
3-1
24.1%
3-2
20.0%
C ARK break %
42.7% vs this opp
TARLET break %
45.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Greyson ButtonKill+14.1%

    Kill by Greyson Button (set by Tatelyn Brandsma)

    Set 5 · C ARK 13-10 TARLET · C ARK 75% → 89%

  2. 02
    Annie HopkinsKill+12.6%

    Kill by Annie Hopkins (set by Tatelyn Brandsma)

    Set 5 · C ARK 12-10 TARLET · C ARK 62% → 75%

  3. 03
    Tarleton St.Ace+12.5%

    Tarleton St. ace on Sarah Carnathan

    Set 5 · C ARK 11-10 TARLET · TARLET 26% → 38%

  4. 04

    Onita Davis stuffed by Ella Chaney & Greyson Button

    Set 5 · C ARK 4-2 TARLET · C ARK 49% → 59%

  5. 05
    Ella ChaneyKill+9.8%

    Kill by Ella Chaney (set by Tatelyn Brandsma)

    Set 5 · C ARK 5-2 TARLET · C ARK 59% → 68%

  6. 06

    Ella Chaney stuffed by Madison Frank & Onita Davis

    Set 5 · C ARK 11-9 TARLET · TARLET 16% → 26%

  7. 07

    Alyssa Dinh stuffed by Tatelyn Brandsma & Greyson Button

    Set 5 · C ARK 6-2 TARLET · C ARK 68% → 77%

  8. 08
    Ella ChaneyKill+8.6%

    Kill by Ella Chaney (set by Tatelyn Brandsma)

    Set 5 · C ARK 14-10 TARLET · C ARK 89% → 97%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
512020.6000021006315
513538.21100070010.513.5
5405.800445311002110
5011-1.000601900000
2257-.429000200002
1001.000000000000
412423.34801183010.513.5
49115.53300000010.59.5
47114.429000000218
4001.000020700002
3000–000000000
2115.00000001031.52.5
2000–100460000
Team totals6018130.32351874911016895
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
515028.53601120052.518.5
510626.15400021010.510.5
58426.15410010031.59.5
59215.46700000010.59.5
54420.000001920004
5003.0002642500004
56213.308000100217
5000–1731100003
5001.0004201800002
4114.000001440001
2000–010310001
Team totals5319136.25048116468012690

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Central Ark. vs Tarleton St.

Season series · Central Ark. leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 C ARK · TARLET 6

Set 1

12-25

Longest run 4 C ARKTARLET 6

Set 2

18-25

Longest run 4 C ARKTARLET 5

Set 3

25-15

Longest run 4 C ARKTARLET 2

Set 4

25-15

Longest run 6 C ARKTARLET 4

Set 5

15-10

Longest run 5 C ARKTARLET 3

Bars above the line = Tarleton St. leads, below = Central Ark. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Central Ark.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
38%11/29
62%13/21
2
53%9/17
44%8/18
3
89%8/9
58%11/19
4
47%7/15
59%10/17
5
88%7/8
13%1/8
6
46%6/13
36%4/11
All
53%48/91
50%47/94

Tarleton St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
48%10/21
61%14/23
2
36%8/22
59%13/22
3
44%8/18
20%2/10
4
64%7/11
33%4/12
5
78%7/9
42%5/12
6
54%7/13
42%5/12
All
50%47/94
47%43/91

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

185 rallies

#C ARK-TARLETSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1TARLETTARLET×5KillOnita Davisset Peyton Fadal+2.0
20-2TARLETTARLET×5AceTarleton St.+1.9
30-3TARLETTARLET×5AceTarleton St.aced Cameron McDaniel+1.7
40-4TARLETTARLET×5KillLaNeah Laraset Leddy Rae Guinn+1.5
50-5TARLETTARLET×5AceTarleton St.aced Cameron McDaniel+1.3
61-5TARLETC ARKServe errTarleton St.+0.9
71-6C ARKTARLETAttack errElla Chaney+1.0
82-6TARLETC ARK×4KillNicole Sargentset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.9
93-6C ARKC ARK×4BlockedOnita Davisblk Greyson Button, Kennady Martindale+1.5
104-6C ARKC ARK×4KillKennady Martindaleset Cameron McDaniel+1.8
115-6C ARKC ARK×4BlockedOnita Davisblk Greyson Button, Kennady Martindale+2.1
125-7C ARKTARLETKillMadison Frankset Peyton Fadal+1.6
136-7TARLETC ARKKillElla Chaneyset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.6
146-8C ARKTARLET×4KillAlyssa Dinhset Karlyn Frazier+1.6
156-9TARLETTARLET×4KillAlyssa Dinhset Alexis Massey+2.0
166-10TARLETTARLET×4AceTarleton St.aced Cameron McDaniel+1.7
176-11TARLETTARLET×4AceTarleton St.aced Cameron McDaniel+1.4
187-11TARLETC ARKAttack errBreannah Peterson+0.9
197-12C ARKTARLETKillBreannah Petersonset Alexis Massey+1.1
208-12TARLETC ARK×3Attack errLaNeah Lara+0.9
219-12C ARKC ARK×3KillNicole Sargentset Olivia Kremer+1.6
2210-12C ARKC ARK×3Bad setAlexis Massey+2.0
2310-13C ARKTARLET×4KillLaNeah Laraset Alexis Massey+1.6
2410-14TARLETTARLET×4KillBreannah Petersonset Alexis Massey+1.9
2510-15TARLETTARLET×4AceTarleton St.aced Cameron McDaniel+1.5
2610-16TARLETTARLET×4AceTarleton St.aced Cameron McDaniel+1.1
2711-16TARLETC ARKKillElla Chaneyset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.6
2811-17C ARKTARLET×6BlockedElla Chaneyblk Breannah Peterson, Madison Frank+0.8
2911-18TARLETTARLET×6Attack errNicole Sargent+0.7
3011-19TARLETTARLET×6BlockedNicole Sargentblk LaNeah Lara, Madison Frank+0.4
3111-20TARLETTARLET×6KillLaNeah Laraset Peyton Fadal+0.2
3211-21TARLETTARLET×6Attack errElla Chaney+0.1
3311-22TARLETTARLET×6KillMadison Frank·
3412-22TARLETC ARKKillGreyson Buttonset Tatelyn Brandsma·
3512-23C ARKTARLET×3KillMadison Frankset Peyton Fadal·
3612-24TARLETTARLET×3Attack errNicole Sargent·
3712-25TARLETTARLET×3Attack errOlivia Kremer·
Set 2
10-1C ARKTARLETKillLaNeah Laraset Peyton Fadal+1.2
21-1TARLETC ARKKillElla Chaneyset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.3
31-2C ARKTARLET×3KillMadison Frankset Peyton Fadal+1.2
41-3TARLETTARLET×3Bad setTatelyn Brandsma+1.6
51-4TARLETTARLET×3BlockedElla Chaneyblk Onita Davis, Madison Frank+1.4
62-4TARLETC ARKServe errTarleton St.+1.0
72-5C ARKTARLETKillMadison Frankset Peyton Fadal+1.1
83-5TARLETC ARKBlockedAlyssa Dinhblk Greyson Button, Kennady Martindale+1.1
93-6C ARKTARLET×5KillAlyssa Dinhset Peyton Fadal+1.1
103-7TARLETTARLET×5Attack errNicole Sargent+1.3
113-8TARLETTARLET×5BlockedKennady Martindaleblk Alyssa Dinh, Breannah Peterson+1.1
123-9TARLETTARLET×5AceTarleton St.aced Kennady Martindale+0.9
133-10TARLETTARLET×5KillAlyssa Dinhset Alexis Massey+0.7
144-10TARLETC ARKAttack errMadison Natori Rice-Locket+0.4
154-11C ARKTARLETKillBreannah Petersonset Alexis Massey+0.5
165-11TARLETC ARKBlockedBreannah Petersonblk McKinzee Haas, Sarah Carnathan+0.4
175-12C ARKTARLETKillAlyssa Dinhset Alexis Massey+0.5
185-13TARLETTARLETAttack errNicole Sargent+0.5
196-13TARLETC ARKKillElla Chaneyset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.3
207-13C ARKC ARKAttack errLaNeah Lara+0.5
217-14C ARKTARLET×5KillBreannah Petersonset Alexis Massey+0.5
227-15TARLETTARLET×5KillMadison Frankset Peyton Fadal+0.5
237-16TARLETTARLET×5AceTarleton St.aced Sarah Carnathan+0.3
247-17TARLETTARLET×5KillLaNeah Laraset Leddy Rae Guinn+0.2
257-18TARLETTARLET×5KillMadison Frankset Peyton Fadal+0.1
268-18TARLETC ARK×4KillAnnie Hopkinsset Olivia Kremer·
279-18C ARKC ARK×4Attack errLaNeah Lara+0.1
2810-18C ARKC ARK×4KillGreyson Buttonset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.1
2911-18C ARKC ARK×4AceCentral Ark.aced LaNeah Lara+0.2
3011-19C ARKTARLETKillLaNeah Laraset Peyton Fadal+0.2
3112-19TARLETC ARK×3KillGreyson Buttonset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.1
3213-19C ARKC ARK×3KillTatelyn Brandsmaset Peyton Fadal+0.3
3314-19C ARKC ARK×3KillGreyson Buttonset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.5
3414-20C ARKTARLETKillMadison Frankset Peyton Fadal+0.6
3515-20TARLETC ARKKillTatelyn Brandsma+0.3
3615-21C ARKTARLETKillOnita Davisset Peyton Fadal+0.5
3715-22TARLETTARLETKillBreannah Petersonset Alexis Massey+0.3
3816-22TARLETC ARKKillMcKinzee Haasset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.1
3916-23C ARKTARLETServe errCentral Ark.+0.2
4016-24TARLETTARLETKillAlyssa Dinh+0.1
4117-24TARLETC ARKServe errTarleton St.·
4218-24C ARKC ARKAttack errLaNeah Lara·
4318-25C ARKTARLETKillAlyssa Dinhset Alexis Massey·
Set 3
11-0TARLETC ARKKillSarah Carnathanset Olivia Kremer+0.7
21-1C ARKTARLETKillOnita Davisset Peyton Fadal+0.7
31-2TARLETTARLETKillMadison Frankset Peyton Fadal+0.9
42-2TARLETC ARKKillMcKinzee Haasset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.7
53-2C ARKC ARKBad setPeyton Fadal+1.0
63-3C ARKTARLETKillOnita Davisset Peyton Fadal+0.7
74-3TARLETC ARK×4Serve errTarleton St.+0.8
85-3C ARKC ARK×4KillElla Chaneyset Olivia Kremer+1.1
96-3C ARKC ARK×4KillGreyson Button+1.1
107-3C ARKC ARK×4AceCentral Ark.aced Jacqui McClain+1.1
117-4C ARKTARLETKillOnita Davisset Peyton Fadal+0.7
128-4TARLETC ARKKillTatelyn Brandsma+0.8
139-4C ARKC ARKAttack errMadison Natori Rice-Locket+1.0
149-5C ARKTARLETKillAlyssa Dinhset Alexis Massey+0.6
1510-5TARLETC ARKKillSarah Carnathanset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.8
1610-6C ARKTARLETAttack errSarah Carnathan+0.6
1710-7TARLETTARLETKillLaNeah Laraset Alexis Massey+1.0
1811-7TARLETC ARK×3KillSarah Carnathanset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.9
1912-7C ARKC ARK×3KillMcKinzee Haasset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.1
2013-7C ARKC ARK×3AceCentral Ark.aced Madison Natori Rice-Locket+0.9
2113-8C ARKTARLETServe errCentral Ark.+0.5
2214-8TARLETC ARKKillSarah Carnathanset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.7
2315-8C ARKC ARKKillMcKinzee Haas+0.7
2415-9C ARKTARLETServe errCentral Ark.+0.4
2515-10TARLETTARLETKillMadison Frankset Peyton Fadal+0.7
2616-10TARLETC ARKAttack errMadison Natori Rice-Locket+0.7
2717-10C ARKC ARKKillElla Chaneyset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.7
2817-11C ARKTARLETKillMadison Natori Rice-Locketset Peyton Fadal+0.3
2918-11TARLETC ARKKillGreyson Buttonset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.5
3018-12C ARKTARLETKillOnita Davisset Peyton Fadal+0.3
3119-12TARLETC ARKServe errTarleton St.+0.5
3219-13C ARKTARLETKillMadison Natori Rice-Locketset Alexis Massey+0.2
3320-13TARLETC ARKKillGreyson Buttonset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.4
3420-14C ARKTARLETKillLaNeah Laraset Alexis Massey+0.2
3521-14TARLETC ARK×3KillMcKinzee Haasset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.4
3622-14C ARKC ARK×3AceCentral Ark.aced Madison Natori Rice-Locket+0.2
3723-14C ARKC ARK×3KillSarah Carnathanset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.1
3823-15C ARKTARLETKillMadison Frankset Alexis Massey·
3924-15TARLETC ARKKillAnnie Hopkinsset Tatelyn Brandsma·
4025-15C ARKC ARKKillAnnie Hopkinsset Tatelyn Brandsma·
Set 4
11-0C ARKC ARK×6AceCentral Ark.aced Jacqui McClain+2.6
22-0C ARKC ARK×6Attack errLaNeah Lara+2.8
33-0C ARKC ARK×6AceCentral Ark.aced Jacqui McClain+2.8
44-0C ARKC ARK×6KillAnnie Hopkinsset Tatelyn Brandsma+2.8
55-0C ARKC ARK×6KillSarah Carnathanset Tatelyn Brandsma+2.7
66-0C ARKC ARK×6KillSarah Carnathanset Tatelyn Brandsma+2.5
76-1C ARKTARLETServe errCentral Ark.+1.5
87-1TARLETC ARK×3KillSarah Carnathanset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.9
98-1C ARKC ARK×3KillSarah Carnathanset Tatelyn Brandsma+2.2
109-1C ARKC ARK×3KillMcKinzee Haasset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.9
119-2C ARKTARLETKillMadison Frankset Peyton Fadal+1.0
1210-2TARLETC ARKKillElla Chaneyset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.4
1311-2C ARKC ARKKillElla Chaneyset Olivia Kremer+1.5
1411-3C ARKTARLETKillJacqui McClainset Onita Davis+0.7
1512-3TARLETC ARKKillGreyson Buttonset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.0
1612-4C ARKTARLETKillAlyssa Dinhset Peyton Fadal+0.7
1713-4TARLETC ARKKillElla Chaneyset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.0
1813-5C ARKTARLETAttack errSarah Carnathan+0.6
1914-5TARLETC ARKKillGreyson Buttonset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.0
2015-5C ARKC ARKKillSarah Carnathanset Alexis Massey+0.9
2115-6C ARKTARLET×3Serve errCentral Ark.+0.4
2215-7TARLETTARLET×3Attack errSarah Carnathan+0.7
2315-8TARLETTARLET×3KillLaNeah Laraset Alexis Massey+1.0
2416-8TARLETC ARK×3BlockedLaNeah Larablk McKinzee Haas, Tatelyn Brandsma+1.1
2517-8C ARKC ARK×3KillAnnie Hopkinsset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.0
2618-8C ARKC ARK×3AceCentral Ark.aced Jacqui McClain+0.6
2718-9C ARKTARLET×4KillBreannah Petersonset Leddy Rae Guinn+0.2
2818-10TARLETTARLET×4Attack errMcKinzee Haas+0.5
2918-11TARLETTARLET×4Attack errSarah Carnathan+0.7
3018-12TARLETTARLET×4KillOnita Davisset Leddy Rae Guinn+1.1
3119-12TARLETC ARKKillSarah Carnathanset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.2
3220-12C ARKC ARKAceCentral Ark.aced Aubrey Acheson+1.0
3320-13C ARKTARLETKillMadison Frankset Peyton Fadal+0.4
3421-13TARLETC ARKAttack errJacqui McClain+0.6
3521-14C ARKTARLETKillOnita Davisset Peyton Fadal+0.3
3621-15TARLETTARLETAceTarleton St.aced Sarah Carnathan+0.6
3722-15TARLETC ARK×4KillAnnie Hopkinsset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.8
3823-15C ARKC ARK×4KillTatelyn Brandsmaset Peyton Fadal+0.5
3924-15C ARKC ARK×4KillElla Chaneyset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.1
4025-15C ARKC ARK×4KillGreyson Buttonset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.1
Set 5
11-0TARLETC ARKServe errTarleton St.+6.5
21-1C ARKTARLETKillMadison Frankset Peyton Fadal+6.2
32-1TARLETC ARKKillMcKinzee Haasset Tatelyn Brandsma+6.8
42-2C ARKTARLETServe errCentral Ark.+6.4
53-2TARLETC ARK×5KillAnnie Hopkinsset Olivia Kremer+7.1
64-2C ARKC ARK×5BlockedOnita Davisblk Ella Chaney, Greyson Button+9.9
75-2C ARKC ARK×5KillElla Chaneyset Tatelyn Brandsma+9.8
86-2C ARKC ARK×5BlockedAlyssa Dinhblk Tatelyn Brandsma, Greyson Button+9.0
97-2C ARKC ARK×5Attack errOnita Davis+7.7
107-3C ARKTARLETKillMadison Natori Rice-Locketset Peyton Fadal+4.0
118-3TARLETC ARKKillElla Chaneyset Tatelyn Brandsma+5.8
128-4C ARKTARLETKillMadison Natori Rice-Locketset Alexis Massey+3.9
139-4TARLETC ARKKillGreyson Buttonset Tatelyn Brandsma+5.7
149-5C ARKTARLETServe errCentral Ark.+3.7
1510-5TARLETC ARKKillSarah Carnathanset Tatelyn Brandsma+5.6
1610-6C ARKTARLETKillLaNeah Laraset Alexis Massey+3.4
1710-7TARLETTARLETAttack errAnnie Hopkins+6.7
1811-7TARLETC ARKKillAnnie Hopkinsset Tatelyn Brandsma+7.4
1911-8C ARKTARLET×3KillMadison Frankset Peyton Fadal+4.6
2011-9TARLETTARLET×3BlockedElla Chaneyblk Madison Frank, Onita Davis+9.1
2111-10TARLETTARLET×3AceTarleton St.aced Sarah Carnathan+12.5
2212-10TARLETC ARK×4KillAnnie Hopkinsset Tatelyn Brandsma+12.6
2313-10C ARKC ARK×4KillGreyson Buttonset Tatelyn Brandsma+14.1
2414-10C ARKC ARK×4KillElla Chaneyset Tatelyn Brandsma+8.6
2515-10C ARKC ARK×4BlockedMadison Natori Rice-Locketblk Greyson Button, Annie Hopkins+2.8

Score shown after each rally, Central Ark. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).