Tarleton State def. Little Rock 3-0 Volleyball (Oct 15)

FinalThu, Oct 15, 2026ESPN+

3:0

RallyIQ pre-match: Little Rock 52.1% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 15, 5:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Tarleton St. won at Little Rock 3-0 (29-27, 26-24, 25-21) on Thu, Oct 15, 2026. Tarleton St.'s Madison Natori Rice-Locket led with 12 kills, and Leddy Rae Guinn added 18 digs.

Data through Nov 4, 3:35 PM CT · final Oct 15

Set	1	2	3	Sets
TARLET	29	26	25	3
UALR	27	24	21	0

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Tarleton St. trailed 3–7 in the first and still took the set, then the match.

One stretch decided it. Percentages are Tarleton St.'s RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Little Rock went in at 52% by RallyIQ.

Turning point 1: Set 1 · Tarleton St. 26–26 Little Rock
Tarleton St. closed it, 3 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 29–27 and lead 1–0. The match swung to Tarleton St.
Tarleton St. 47% → 67%

Little Rock above 50Tarleton St. belowMax swing 10.2%

Tarleton St.Little Rock

Sideout %: Tarleton St. 67.1·Little Rock 60.8
Break %: Tarleton St. 39.2·Little Rock 32.9
Hitting: Tarleton St. .264·Little Rock .185
Longest run: Tarleton St. 4·Little Rock 4

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Little Rock above 50 · Tarleton St. below

Biggest swing: 10.2% to Tarleton St. — set 2, TARLET 26-24 UALR. Lovina Teel stuffed by Onita Davis & Madison Frank. UALR win probability 24% → 13%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

TARLET 45.3%54.7% UALR

Tarleton St. wins

3-0

10.6%

3-1

16.8%

3-2

17.9%

Little Rock wins

3-0

14.6%

3-1

20.7%

3-2

19.4%

TARLET break %: 44.1% vs this opp
UALR break %: 45.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Onita Davis&Madison FrankBlock+10.2%
Lovina Teel stuffed by Onita Davis & Madison Frank
Set 2 · TARLET 26-24 UALR · TARLET 76% → 87%
02
Madison Natori Rice-LocketAttack error+10.1%
Attack error by Madison Natori Rice-Locket
Set 2 · TARLET 24-24 UALR · UALR 22% → 32%
03
Madison Natori Rice-Locket&Madison FrankBlock+9.9%
Alyssa Boyte stuffed by Madison Natori Rice-Locket & Madison Frank
Set 1 · TARLET 29-27 UALR · TARLET 57% → 67%
04
Madison Natori Rice-LocketKill+9.8%
Kill by Madison Natori Rice-Locket (set by Alexis Massey)
Set 1 · TARLET 27-26 UALR · TARLET 47% → 57%
05
Victoria FontenotService error+8.3%
Service error by Victoria Fontenot
Set 2 · TARLET 25-24 UALR · TARLET 68% → 76%
06
Bella CherryKill+8.1%
Kill by Bella Cherry (set by Lily King)
Set 1 · TARLET 27-27 UALR · UALR 43% → 51%
07
Breannah PetersonKill+8.1%
Kill by Breannah Peterson (set by Alexis Massey)
Set 1 · TARLET 28-27 UALR · TARLET 49% → 57%
08
Polianna HernandezKill+8.0%
Kill by Polianna Hernandez (set by Alayna Vaeth)
Set 1 · TARLET 23-24 UALR · UALR 53% → 61%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Tarleton St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
21Madison Natori Rice-LocketOH	3	12	4	33	.242	0	0	2	12	1	0	3	1.5	13.5
3LaNeah LaraOH	3	11	4	26	.269	0	0	0	4	1	0	2	1	12
11Onita DavisMB	3	5	1	16	.250	0	0	0	3	0	1	2	2	7
9Madison FrankMB	3	5	0	12	.417	1	0	1	0	0	0	4	2	7
23Alyssa DinhMB	3	5	1	11	.364	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	6.5
18Peyton FadalS	3	0	3	4	-.750	17	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0
4Breannah PetersonOPP	3	11	2	24	.375	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11
8Leddy Rae GuinnDS	3	0	0	1	.000	4	2	2	18	1	0	0	0	2
5Alexis MasseyS	3	0	0	1	.000	22	0	2	5	0	0	0	0	0
1Aubrey AchesonL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	1	10	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		49	15	129	.264	45	2	10	55	4	1	14	8	80

Little Rockhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
8Bella CherryOH	3	11	3	30	.267	1	1	2	12	1	2	1	13
7Lovina TeelOH	3	12	4	35	.229	0	0	2	5	1	0	0	12
10Polianna HernandezOH	3	7	4	20	.150	2	0	1	5	0	2	1	8
17Lorena KeseljMB	3	2	0	4	.500	0	1	1	1	0	5	2.5	5.5
12Alyssa BoyteMB	3	3	2	16	.063	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	4
4Alayna VaethS	3	2	0	2	1.000	10	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	2.5
5Lily KingS	3	0	0	0	–	12	1	1	7	0	0	0	1
6Victoria FontenotL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	8	1	3	18	0	0	0	1
14Avery FearnleyOH	2	2	3	11	-.091	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	3
11Kaylee SmithS	2	0	1	1	-1.000	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
2Skyler PerezL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
1Miranda BledsoeL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		39	17	119	.185	36	4	10	56	2	14	7	72

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Tarleton St. vs Little Rock

Season series · Tarleton St. leads 1-0

Thu, Oct 15, 2026Tarleton St. at Little Rock · Tarleton St. won 3-0This match
Sat, Nov 7, 2026Little Rock at Tarleton St.Preview →

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 TARLET · UALR 4

Set 1

29-27

Longest run 3 TARLETUALR 4

Set 2

26-24

Longest run 3 TARLETUALR 3

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 4 TARLETUALR 4

Bars above the line = Little Rock leads, below = Tarleton St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Tarleton St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%9/19	53%9/17
2	67%8/12	27%3/11
3	100%8/8	27%3/11
4	62%8/13	20%2/10
5	80%8/10	38%5/13
6	73%8/11	53%9/17
All	67%49/73	39%31/79

Little Rock

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%9/18	20%2/10
2	89%8/9	50%9/18
3	67%8/12	27%3/11
4	80%8/10	11%1/9
5	57%8/14	33%4/12
6	44%7/16	38%5/13
All	61%48/79	33%24/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

152 rallies

#	TARLET-UALR	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	TARLET	TARLET	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Peyton Fadal	+2.4
2	1-1	TARLET	UALR×4	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Alayna Vaeth	+1.9
3	1-2	UALR	UALR×4	Ace	Bella Cherry	aced LaNeah Lara	+2.4
4	1-3	UALR	UALR×4	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Alayna Vaeth	+2.4
5	1-4	UALR	UALR×4	Blocked	Onita Davis	blk Alayna Vaeth, Alyssa Boyte	+2.3
6	2-4	UALR	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Peyton Fadal	+1.8
7	3-4	TARLET	TARLET	Attack err	Alyssa Boyte		+2.4
8	3-5	TARLET	UALR×3	Serve err	Tarleton St.		+2.0
9	3-6	UALR	UALR×3	Kill	Lorena Keselj	set Alayna Vaeth	+2.4
10	3-7	UALR	UALR×3	Kill	Alayna Vaeth	set Polianna Hernandez	+2.2
11	4-7	UALR	TARLET	Attack err	Bella Cherry		+1.7
12	4-8	TARLET	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Victoria Fontenot	+1.9
13	5-8	UALR	TARLET	Kill	Alyssa Dinh	set Peyton Fadal	+1.7
14	5-9	TARLET	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Lily King	+1.9
15	6-9	UALR	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Alexis Massey	+1.7
16	6-10	TARLET	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Polianna Hernandez	+1.9
17	7-10	UALR	TARLET×3	Kill	Breannah Peterson	set Alexis Massey	+1.7
18	8-10	TARLET	TARLET×3	Kill	Madison Frank	set Alexis Massey	+2.4
19	9-10	TARLET	TARLET×3	Kill	Breannah Peterson	set Alexis Massey	+2.7
20	9-11	TARLET	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Victoria Fontenot	+2.4
21	10-11	UALR	TARLET	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Leddy Rae Guinn	+2.3
22	11-11	TARLET	TARLET	Blocked	Bella Cherry	blk Onita Davis	+3.1
23	11-12	TARLET	UALR	Serve err	Tarleton St.		+2.6
24	11-13	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Madison Frank		+3.2
25	12-13	UALR	TARLET	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Peyton Fadal	+2.5
26	12-14	TARLET	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Alayna Vaeth	+2.7
27	13-14	UALR	TARLET	Serve err	Victoria Fontenot		+2.5
28	14-14	TARLET	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Peyton Fadal	+3.5
29	14-15	TARLET	UALR	Kill	Lorena Keselj	set Alayna Vaeth	+3.0
30	15-15	UALR	TARLET	Kill	Alyssa Dinh	set Peyton Fadal	+3.0
31	15-16	TARLET	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Lily King	+3.1
32	15-17	UALR	UALR	Blocked	Alyssa Dinh	blk Lorena Keselj, Bella Cherry	+3.8
33	16-17	UALR	TARLET	Kill	Breannah Peterson	set Alexis Massey	+2.9
34	16-18	TARLET	UALR	Kill	Polianna Hernandez	set Skyler Perez	+3.3
35	16-19	UALR	UALR	Bad set	Madison Natori Rice-Locket		+3.6
36	17-19	UALR	TARLET	Kill	Breannah Peterson	set Alexis Massey	+2.4
37	18-19	TARLET	TARLET	Kill	Breannah Peterson	set Alexis Massey	+3.8
38	18-20	TARLET	UALR	Kill	Polianna Hernandez	set Lily King	+3.7
39	19-20	UALR	TARLET	Serve err	Polianna Hernandez		+3.3
40	19-21	TARLET	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Victoria Fontenot	+4.1
41	20-21	UALR	TARLET	Serve err	Bella Cherry		+3.5
42	20-22	TARLET	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Victoria Fontenot	+4.5
43	20-23	UALR	UALR	Attack err	LaNeah Lara		+4.4
44	21-23	UALR	TARLET×3	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Peyton Fadal	+2.2
45	22-23	TARLET	TARLET×3	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Peyton Fadal	+4.6
46	23-23	TARLET	TARLET×3	Kill	LaNeah Lara		+7.4
47	23-24	TARLET	UALR	Kill	Polianna Hernandez	set Alayna Vaeth	+8.0
48	24-24	UALR	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Peyton Fadal	+8.0
49	24-25	TARLET	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Lily King	+8.0
50	25-25	UALR	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Alexis Massey	+8.0
51	25-26	TARLET	UALR	Blocked	Breannah Peterson	blk Lorena Keselj, Bella Cherry	+8.0
52	26-26	UALR	TARLET	Attack err	Polianna Hernandez		+8.0
53	27-26	TARLET	TARLET	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Alexis Massey	+9.8
54	27-27	TARLET	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Lily King	+8.1
55	28-27	UALR	TARLET	Kill	Breannah Peterson	set Alexis Massey	+8.1
56	29-27	TARLET	TARLET	Blocked	Alyssa Boyte	blk Madison Natori Rice-Locket, Madison Frank	+9.9
Set 2
1	1-0	UALR	TARLET×3	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Alexis Massey	+2.0
2	2-0	TARLET	TARLET×3	Attack err	Lovina Teel		+2.4
3	3-0	TARLET	TARLET×3	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Alexis Massey	+2.4
4	3-1	TARLET	UALR	Serve err	Tarleton St.		+1.8
5	4-1	UALR	TARLET	Kill	Madison Frank	set Alexis Massey	+2.0
6	4-2	TARLET	UALR	Attack err	Lorena Keselj		+1.9
7	5-2	UALR	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Alexis Massey	+2.0
8	5-3	TARLET	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Lily King	+1.9
9	6-3	UALR	TARLET	Kill	Breannah Peterson	set Alexis Massey	+2.1
10	7-3	TARLET	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Peyton Fadal	+2.4
11	7-4	TARLET	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Alayna Vaeth	+1.8
12	8-4	UALR	TARLET	Serve err	Bella Cherry		+2.0
13	9-4	TARLET	TARLET	Bad set	Alayna Vaeth		+2.2
14	9-5	TARLET	UALR×3	Attack err	Madison Natori Rice-Locket		+1.5
15	9-6	UALR	UALR×3	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Alayna Vaeth	+2.2
16	9-7	UALR	UALR×3	Ace	Victoria Fontenot	aced Aubrey Acheson	+2.5
17	10-7	UALR	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Peyton Fadal	+2.3
18	11-7	TARLET	TARLET	Ace	Leddy Rae Guinn	aced Lovina Teel	+2.6
19	11-8	TARLET	UALR	Attack err	Peyton Fadal		+1.8
20	11-9	UALR	UALR	Ace	Lily King	aced Madison Natori Rice-Locket	+2.6
21	12-9	UALR	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Peyton Fadal	+2.4
22	12-10	TARLET	UALR	Kill	Polianna Hernandez	set Victoria Fontenot	+2.2
23	12-11	UALR	UALR	Kill	Polianna Hernandez	set Victoria Fontenot	+3.0
24	13-11	UALR	TARLET	Kill	Madison Frank	set Alexis Massey	+2.7
25	13-12	TARLET	UALR	Serve err	Tarleton St.		+2.5
26	14-12	UALR	TARLET	Serve err	Lorena Keselj		+2.8
27	14-13	TARLET	UALR	Kill	Alyssa Boyte	set Lily King	+2.6
28	15-13	UALR	TARLET	Kill	Breannah Peterson	set Alexis Massey	+2.9
29	15-14	TARLET	UALR	Kill	Alayna Vaeth	set Leddy Rae Guinn	+2.7
30	16-14	UALR	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Leddy Rae Guinn	+3.1
31	17-14	TARLET	TARLET	Kill	Onita Davis	set Peyton Fadal	+3.5
32	17-15	TARLET	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Alayna Vaeth	+2.4
33	18-15	UALR	TARLET	Serve err	Victoria Fontenot		+3.0
34	18-16	TARLET	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Alayna Vaeth	+2.5
35	18-17	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Madison Natori Rice-Locket		+3.8
36	19-17	UALR	TARLET	Serve err	Lily King		+3.6
37	19-18	TARLET	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Victoria Fontenot	+3.2
38	20-18	UALR	TARLET	Attack err	Bella Cherry		+3.9
39	20-19	TARLET	UALR	Blocked	LaNeah Lara	blk Polianna Hernandez, Lorena Keselj	+3.4
40	21-19	UALR	TARLET	Blocked	Polianna Hernandez	blk LaNeah Lara, Madison Frank	+4.2
41	22-19	TARLET	TARLET	Kill	Breannah Peterson	set Madison Frank	+4.4
42	22-20	TARLET	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Lily King	+2.5
43	22-21	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Breannah Peterson		+4.6
44	23-21	UALR	TARLET	Kill	Breannah Peterson	set Alexis Massey	+5.3
45	23-22	TARLET	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Kaylee Smith	+3.9
46	24-22	UALR	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Peyton Fadal	+6.3
47	24-23	TARLET	UALR	Kill	Avery Fearnley	set Kaylee Smith	+3.7
48	24-24	UALR	UALR	Attack err	Madison Natori Rice-Locket		+10.1
49	25-24	UALR	TARLET	Serve err	Victoria Fontenot		+8.3
50	26-24	TARLET	TARLET	Blocked	Lovina Teel	blk Onita Davis, Madison Frank	+10.2
Set 3
1	1-0	TARLET	TARLET	Blocked	Polianna Hernandez	blk Madison Frank, Madison Natori Rice-Locket	+1.6
2	1-1	TARLET	UALR	Kill	Lovina Teel	set Lily King	+1.3
3	1-2	UALR	UALR	Kill	Alyssa Boyte		+1.7
4	2-2	UALR	TARLET	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Alexis Massey	+1.4
5	2-3	TARLET	UALR	Blocked	LaNeah Lara	blk Polianna Hernandez, Alyssa Boyte	+1.4
6	3-3	UALR	TARLET	Kill	Breannah Peterson	set Alexis Massey	+1.4
7	3-4	TARLET	UALR	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Lily King	+1.4
8	4-4	UALR	TARLET	Kill	Alyssa Dinh	set Alexis Massey	+1.4
9	5-4	TARLET	TARLET	Attack err	Avery Fearnley		+1.8
10	5-5	TARLET	UALR×4	Serve err	Tarleton St.		+1.5
11	5-6	UALR	UALR×4	Kill	Avery Fearnley		+1.8
12	5-7	UALR	UALR×4	Blocked	LaNeah Lara	blk Lorena Keselj, Avery Fearnley	+1.8
13	5-8	UALR	UALR×4	Attack err	Peyton Fadal		+1.7
14	6-8	UALR	TARLET×4	Blocked	Avery Fearnley	blk LaNeah Lara, Alyssa Dinh	+1.3
15	7-8	TARLET	TARLET×4	Blocked	Lovina Teel	blk Onita Davis, Alyssa Dinh	+1.8
16	8-8	TARLET	TARLET×4	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Leddy Rae Guinn	+1.9
17	9-8	TARLET	TARLET×4	Attack err	Kaylee Smith		+2.0
18	9-9	TARLET	UALR	Serve err	Tarleton St.		+1.6
19	10-9	UALR	TARLET	Kill	Alyssa Dinh	set Peyton Fadal	+1.7
20	11-9	TARLET	TARLET	Bad set	Kaylee Smith		+2.1
21	11-10	TARLET	UALR	Serve err	Tarleton St.		+1.6
22	12-10	UALR	TARLET×3	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Leddy Rae Guinn	+1.7
23	13-10	TARLET	TARLET×3	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Victoria Fontenot	+2.0
24	14-10	TARLET	TARLET×3	Attack err	Lovina Teel		+1.8
25	14-11	TARLET	UALR×3	Serve err	Tarleton St.		+1.3
26	14-12	UALR	UALR×3	Kill	Bella Cherry	set Victoria Fontenot	+1.9
27	14-13	UALR	UALR×3	Attack err	Peyton Fadal		+2.2
28	15-13	UALR	TARLET	Serve err	Lovina Teel		+2.0
29	15-14	TARLET	UALR	Kill	Alyssa Boyte	set Lily King	+1.8
30	16-14	UALR	TARLET	Kill	Madison Frank	set Alexis Massey	+2.1
31	16-15	TARLET	UALR	Serve err	Tarleton St.		+1.9
32	17-15	UALR	TARLET	Kill	Alyssa Dinh	set Victoria Fontenot	+2.2
33	17-16	TARLET	UALR	Attack err	Avery Fearnley		+2.0
34	18-16	UALR	TARLET	Kill	LaNeah Lara	set Alyssa Dinh	+2.3
35	19-16	TARLET	TARLET	Blocked	Avery Fearnley	blk Alyssa Dinh, Madison Natori Rice-Locket	+2.6
36	19-17	TARLET	UALR	Blocked	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	blk Lorena Keselj, Avery Fearnley	+1.7
37	19-18	UALR	UALR	Ace	Lorena Keselj	aced Leddy Rae Guinn	+2.7
38	20-18	UALR	TARLET×3	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Peyton Fadal	+2.6
39	21-18	TARLET	TARLET×3	Ace	Leddy Rae Guinn	aced Bella Cherry	+2.8
40	22-18	TARLET	TARLET×3	Kill	Madison Frank	set Peyton Fadal	+2.1
41	22-19	TARLET	UALR	Serve err	Tarleton St.		+1.1
42	23-19	UALR	TARLET	Kill	Madison Natori Rice-Locket	set Peyton Fadal	+1.7
43	24-19	TARLET	TARLET	Attack err	Polianna Hernandez		+1.0
44	24-20	TARLET	UALR	Kill	Polianna Hernandez	set Lily King	+0.2
45	24-21	UALR	UALR	Kill	Polianna Hernandez	set Bella Cherry	+0.6
46	25-21	UALR	TARLET	Serve err	Lovina Teel		+1.1

Score shown after each rally, Tarleton St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Tarleton St. def. Little Rock 3–0

Tarleton St. trailed 3–7 in the first and still took the set, then the match.