Final · 5 setsThu, Sep 17, 2026

Montana St. def. Mercer 3–2

Montana St. won at Mercer 3-2 (25-23, 28-30, 25-7, 20-25, 15-10) on Thu, Sep 17, 2026. Montana St.'s Karli Heidemann led with 24 kills, and Lauren Greeny added 12 digs.

Data through · final Sep 17

Set12345Sets
MONTST 25282520153
MERCER2330725102

Win probability

Mercer above 50 · Montana St. below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+9.3% MONTST rally 208 · set 5

Biggest swing: 9.3% to Montana St. — set 1, MONTST 24-23 MERCER. Kill by Joelie Spelts (set by Teagan Jaynes). MERCER win probability 38% → 29%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MONTST 65.4%34.6% MERCER

Montana St. wins

3-0
20.2%
3-1
25.1%
3-2
20.1%

Mercer wins

3-0
7.0%
3-1
12.4%
3-2
15.2%
MONTST break %
43.6% vs this opp
MERCER break %
40.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Joelie SpeltsKill+9.3%

    Kill by Joelie Spelts (set by Teagan Jaynes)

    Set 1 · MONTST 24-23 MERCER · MONTST 62% → 71%

  2. 02

    Kill by Brooklyn Palmer (set by Sammi Bergjans)

    Set 2 · MONTST 28-30 MERCER · MERCER 29% → 38%

  3. 03
    Montana St.Ace+8.6%

    Montana St. ace on Aubri Martin

    Set 1 · MONTST 25-23 MERCER · MONTST 71% → 80%

  4. 04
    Montana St.Ace+8.6%

    Montana St. ace on Lara Matta

    Set 2 · MONTST 24-24 MERCER · MONTST 69% → 77%

  5. 05
    Avery WilksKill+8.4%

    Kill by Avery Wilks (set by Sammi Bergjans)

    Set 2 · MONTST 28-29 MERCER · MERCER 21% → 29%

  6. 06
    Montana St.Ace+8.0%

    Montana St. ace on Sarah Frager

    Set 5 · MONTST 2-0 MERCER · MONTST 64% → 72%

  7. 07

    Kill by Karli Heidemann (set by Teagan Jaynes)

    Set 2 · MONTST 25-24 MERCER · MONTST 77% → 85%

  8. 08
    Joelie SpeltsKill+7.5%

    Kill by Joelie Spelts (set by Teagan Jaynes)

    Set 5 · MONTST 4-1 MERCER · MONTST 72% → 80%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
524653.34011252031.526.5
512122.50012350010.514.5
510521.2380000000010
53212.0831331200006
5328.125100000425
52113.077492170010.54.5
54111.273125110031.57.5
5000–1031140000
1000–000100000
1000–000000000
Team totals5818140.2865510175260126113
Mercerhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
517536.3330116500018
510427.2220010002111
5036-.5004628100031.53.5
5000–00162010.50.5
47210.500000000218
4000–104100000
59327.22210032010.59.5
57523.087000600007
5000–3322010003
2001.00000010010.50.5
1112.000000100001
1025-.400000000000
Team totals5125137.190516175410010595

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 19 MONTST · MERCER 6

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 5 MONTST MERCER 5

Set 2

28-30

Longest run 5 MONTST MERCER 3

Set 3

25-7

Longest run 19 MONTST MERCER 3

Set 4

20-25

Longest run 3 MONTST MERCER 6

Set 5

15-10

Longest run 3 MONTST MERCER 3

Bars above the line = Mercer leads, below = Montana St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Montana St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
60%12/20
17%2/12
2
55%11/20
37%7/19
3
53%10/19
47%9/19
4
75%9/12
40%6/15
5
62%8/13
78%28/36
6
67%8/12
27%3/11
All
60%58/96
49%55/112

Mercer

SlotSideout %Break %
1
72%13/18
8%1/12
2
48%11/23
43%9/21
3
64%9/14
57%13/23
4
25%8/32
36%5/14
5
53%8/15
20%2/10
6
80%8/10
50%8/16
All
51%57/112
40%38/96

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

208 rallies

#MONTST -MERCERSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0MERCERMONTST KillAlice Stemanset Teagan Jaynes+1.6
21-1MONTST MERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+1.7
32-1MERCERMONTST Serve errMercer+1.7
42-2MONTST MERCER×5KillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+1.7
52-3MERCERMERCER×5KillAvery Wilksset Sammi Bergjans+2.5
62-4MERCERMERCER×5Bad setJoelie Spelts+2.6
72-5MERCERMERCER×5Attack errElli Tufto+2.6
82-6MERCERMERCER×5KillLara Mattaset Aubri Martin+2.5
93-6MERCERMONTST Serve errMercer+1.6
104-6MONTST MONTST Attack errAvery Wilks+2.4
114-7MONTST MERCERServe errMontana St.+2.0
125-7MERCERMONTST ×5KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+1.8
136-7MONTST MONTST ×5AceMontana St.aced Lara Matta+2.6
147-7MONTST MONTST ×5Bad setSammi Bergjans+2.7
158-7MONTST MONTST ×5Attack errTaylor Timko+2.7
169-7MONTST MONTST ×5AceMontana St.aced Brooklyn Palmer+2.6
179-8MONTST MERCERKillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+1.8
1810-8MERCERMONTST KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes+1.9
1911-8MONTST MONTST KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes+2.4
2011-9MONTST MERCER×4Attack errLauren Greeny+1.6
2111-10MERCERMERCER×4Attack errAlice Steman+2.7
2211-11MERCERMERCER×4BlockedLauren Greenyblk Sammi Bergjans, Joselynn Sanjurjo+3.0
2311-12MERCERMERCER×4Attack errTeagan Jaynes+3.3
2412-12MERCERMONTST BlockedTaylor Timkoblk Karli Heidemann, Alice Steman+2.3
2512-13MONTST MERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+2.5
2613-13MERCERMONTST KillElli Tuftoset Teagan Jaynes+2.4
2713-14MONTST MERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+2.6
2814-14MERCERMONTST KillLauren Greenyset Teagan Jaynes+2.5
2915-14MONTST MONTST AceMontana St.aced Lara Matta+3.5
3015-15MONTST MERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+2.6
3116-15MERCERMONTST Serve errMercer+2.7
3216-16MONTST MERCERKillAvery Wilksset Sammi Bergjans+2.7
3316-17MERCERMERCERAceMerceraced Karli Heidemann+4.1
3417-17MERCERMONTST KillKarli Heidemannset Joelie Spelts+2.9
3517-18MONTST MERCERServe errMontana St.+3.2
3617-19MERCERMERCERAttack errKarli Heidemann+4.5
3718-19MERCERMONTST KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes+2.8
3818-20MONTST MERCERKillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+3.6
3918-21MERCERMERCERBad setTeagan Jaynes+4.4
4019-21MERCERMONTST KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes+2.2
4119-22MONTST MERCERServe errMontana St.+3.4
4220-22MERCERMONTST Attack errSammi Bergjans+2.2
4320-23MONTST MERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+3.5
4421-23MERCERMONTST ×5KillElli Tuftoset Teagan Jaynes+1.9
4522-23MONTST MONTST ×5KillElli Tuftoset Karli Heidemann+4.7
4623-23MONTST MONTST ×5KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+7.4
4724-23MONTST MONTST ×5KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+9.3
4825-23MONTST MONTST ×5AceMontana St.aced Aubri Martin+8.6
Set 2
11-0MONTST MONTST Attack errLara Matta+2.0
21-1MONTST MERCER×3KillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+1.4
31-2MERCERMERCER×3AceMerceraced Karli Heidemann+2.1
41-3MERCERMERCER×3AceMerceraced Nicolette Noble+2.2
52-3MERCERMONTST Serve errMercer+1.5
63-3MONTST MONTST Attack errSammi Bergjans+2.1
73-4MONTST MERCERAttack errElli Tufto+1.6
83-5MERCERMERCERKillLara Mattaset Aubri Martin+2.3
94-5MERCERMONTST Serve errMercer+1.6
104-6MONTST MERCER×3KillAvery Wilksset Sammi Bergjans+1.7
114-7MERCERMERCER×3KillBrooklyn Palmerset Aubri Martin+2.3
124-8MERCERMERCER×3Attack errTaylor McDonald+2.2
135-8MERCERMONTST KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+1.4
145-9MONTST MERCERKillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+1.7
156-9MERCERMONTST KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes+1.4
166-10MONTST MERCERKillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+1.7
177-10MERCERMONTST Serve errMercer+1.4
187-11MONTST MERCERServe errMontana St.+1.7
198-11MERCERMONTST KillElli Tuftoset Teagan Jaynes+1.5
208-12MONTST MERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+1.8
219-12MERCERMONTST KillElli Tuftoset Lauren Greeny+1.5
2210-12MONTST MONTST KillTeagan Jaynesset Nicolette Noble+2.3
2310-13MONTST MERCERServe errMontana St.+2.0
2410-14MERCERMERCERKillAvery Wilksset Sammi Bergjans+2.5
2511-14MERCERMONTST Serve errMercer+1.5
2611-15MONTST MERCERServe errMontana St.+1.9
2712-15MERCERMONTST KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+1.5
2812-16MONTST MERCERKillAvery Wilksset Sammi Bergjans+1.9
2913-16MERCERMONTST KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes+1.5
3013-17MONTST MERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+2.0
3114-17MERCERMONTST KillAlice Stemanset Teagan Jaynes+1.5
3214-18MONTST MERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+2.0
3315-18MERCERMONTST Serve errMercer+1.5
3416-18MONTST MONTST Attack errLara Matta+2.7
3516-19MONTST MERCERServe errMontana St.+2.5
3617-19MERCERMONTST Attack errLara Matta+1.9
3717-20MONTST MERCERServe errMontana St.+2.6
3818-20MERCERMONTST Serve errMercer+1.9
3918-21MONTST MERCERKillAvery Wilksset Sammi Bergjans+2.8
4018-22MERCERMERCERKillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+2.8
4119-22MERCERMONTST KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+1.1
4220-22MONTST MONTST KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes+2.6
4320-23MONTST MERCERKillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+3.0
4420-24MERCERMERCERBlockedKarli Heidemannblk Joselynn Sanjurjo, Brooklyn Palmer+2.4
4521-24MERCERMONTST ×5Serve errMercer+0.5
4622-24MONTST MONTST ×5Attack errJoselynn Sanjurjo+1.6
4723-24MONTST MONTST ×5Attack errTaylor Timko+3.7
4824-24MONTST MONTST ×5AceMontana St.aced Lara Matta+8.6
4925-24MONTST MONTST ×5KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes+8.0
5025-25MONTST MERCERServe errMontana St.+5.7
5126-25MERCERMONTST Serve errMercer+5.7
5226-26MONTST MERCERKillTaylor Timkoset Brooke Kaoui+5.7
5327-26MERCERMONTST KillLauren Greenyset Teagan Jaynes+5.7
5427-27MONTST MERCERServe errMontana St.+5.7
5528-27MERCERMONTST KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+5.7
5628-28MONTST MERCER×3KillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+5.7
5728-29MERCERMERCER×3KillAvery Wilksset Sammi Bergjans+8.4
5828-30MERCERMERCER×3KillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+9.0
Set 3
10-1MERCERMERCERAttack errElli Tufto+3.3
21-1MERCERMONTST ×3KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+2.3
32-1MONTST MONTST ×3AceMontana St.aced Lara Matta+3.2
43-1MONTST MONTST ×3Attack errJoselynn Sanjurjo+3.1
53-2MONTST MERCERKillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+2.2
64-2MERCERMONTST KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+2.3
74-3MONTST MERCER×3BlockedKarli Heidemannblk Avery Wilks, Sammi Bergjans+2.3
84-4MERCERMERCER×3KillAvery Wilksset Sammi Bergjans+3.4
94-5MERCERMERCER×3KillLara Mattaset Brooklyn Palmer+3.6
105-5MERCERMONTST KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes+2.5
116-5MONTST MONTST KillKarli Heidemannset Alice Steman+3.5
126-6MONTST MERCERServe errMontana St.+2.6
136-7MERCERMERCERKillAvery Wilksset Sammi Bergjans+3.8
147-7MERCERMONTST ×19KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes+2.7
158-7MONTST MONTST ×19Bad setSammi Bergjans+3.7
169-7MONTST MONTST ×19KillLauren Greenyset Teagan Jaynes+3.6
1710-7MONTST MONTST ×19KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes+3.3
1811-7MONTST MONTST ×19KillKarli Heidemannset Sammi Bergjans+2.9
1912-7MONTST MONTST ×19BlockedAvery Wilksblk Alice Steman, Taylor McDonald+2.4
2013-7MONTST MONTST ×19KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes+1.9
2114-7MONTST MONTST ×19Attack errBrooklyn Palmer+1.4
2215-7MONTST MONTST ×19AceMontana St.aced Brooklyn Palmer+1.0
2316-7MONTST MONTST ×19Attack errTaylor Timko+0.6
2417-7MONTST MONTST ×19KillTeagan Jaynesset Taylor McDonald+0.4
2518-7MONTST MONTST ×19KillAlice Stemanset Teagan Jaynes+0.2
2619-7MONTST MONTST ×19BlockedIpek Ulukutlublk Alice Steman, Taylor McDonald+0.1
2720-7MONTST MONTST ×19Attack errBrooklyn Palmer·
2821-7MONTST MONTST ×19KillKarli Heidemann·
2922-7MONTST MONTST ×19KillTaylor McDonaldset Teagan Jaynes·
3023-7MONTST MONTST ×19KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes·
3124-7MONTST MONTST ×19KillTaylor McDonaldset Teagan Jaynes·
3225-7MONTST MONTST ×19Attack errIpek Ulukutlu·
Set 4
10-1MONTST MERCERKillBella Ponsset Sammi Bergjans+2.1
21-1MERCERMONTST KillTaylor McDonaldset Teagan Jaynes+2.0
32-1MONTST MONTST AceMontana St.aced Sarah Frager+2.8
42-2MONTST MERCERKillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+2.1
52-3MERCERMERCERAttack errElli Tufto+3.0
63-3MERCERMONTST Serve errMercer+2.1
73-4MONTST MERCERServe errMontana St.+2.3
84-4MERCERMONTST KillTaylor McDonaldset Teagan Jaynes+2.2
95-4MONTST MONTST Attack errAvery Wilks+3.0
105-5MONTST MERCERServe errMontana St.+2.2
116-5MERCERMONTST KillElli Tuftoset Teagan Jaynes+2.2
127-5MONTST MONTST AceMontana St.aced Lara Matta+3.0
137-6MONTST MERCER×3Serve errMontana St.+2.1
147-7MERCERMERCER×3Attack errJoelie Spelts+3.2
157-8MERCERMERCER×3KillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+3.5
168-8MERCERMONTST ×3Serve errMercer+2.4
179-8MONTST MONTST ×3BlockedBella Ponsblk Alice Steman, Teagan Jaynes+3.4
1810-8MONTST MONTST ×3KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes+3.2
1910-9MONTST MERCERServe errMontana St.+2.3
2011-9MERCERMONTST KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes+2.4
2111-10MONTST MERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+2.4
2212-10MERCERMONTST KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes+2.5
2313-10MONTST MONTST Attack errAvery Wilks+3.1
2413-11MONTST MERCER×3KillAvery Wilksset Sammi Bergjans+2.1
2513-12MERCERMERCER×3AceMerceraced Nicolette Noble+3.4
2613-13MERCERMERCER×3KillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+3.9
2714-13MERCERMONTST Serve errMercer+2.9
2815-13MONTST MONTST BlockedLara Mattablk Karli Heidemann, Taylor McDonald+3.9
2915-14MONTST MERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+2.7
3016-14MERCERMONTST KillElli Tuftoset Teagan Jaynes+2.9
3116-15MONTST MERCERServe errMontana St.+2.8
3217-15MERCERMONTST Attack errBrooklyn Palmer+3.1
3318-15MONTST MONTST Attack errTaylor Timko+3.7
3418-16MONTST MERCER×3KillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+2.3
3518-17MERCERMERCER×3KillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+4.1
3618-18MERCERMERCER×3Attack errKarli Heidemann+5.1
3719-18MERCERMONTST KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+3.9
3819-19MONTST MERCERBlockedKarli Heidemannblk Sarah Frager, Mikayla Miessler+4.0
3920-19MERCERMONTST KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes+4.3
4020-20MONTST MERCER×6Attack errKarli Heidemann+4.3
4120-21MERCERMERCER×6KillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+7.0
4220-22MERCERMERCER×6BlockedAlice Stemanblk Avery Wilks, Sammi Bergjans+7.1
4320-23MERCERMERCER×6AceMerceraced Nicolette Noble+5.8
4420-24MERCERMERCER×6KillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+3.4
4520-25MERCERMERCER×6Bad setTeagan Jaynes+0.1
Set 5
11-0MERCERMONTST Attack errSammi Bergjans+6.0
22-0MONTST MONTST AceMontana St.aced Sarah Frager+8.0
32-1MONTST MERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+5.6
43-1MERCERMONTST Serve errMercer+6.0
54-1MONTST MONTST KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+7.5
64-2MONTST MERCERKillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+4.9
75-2MERCERMONTST ×3Serve errMercer+5.6
86-2MONTST MONTST ×3KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes+6.5
97-2MONTST MONTST ×3Bad setSammi Bergjans+5.0
107-3MONTST MERCERKillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+2.7
118-3MERCERMONTST KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes+3.6
128-4MONTST MERCERKillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+2.6
139-4MERCERMONTST Serve errMercer+3.5
149-5MONTST MERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+2.4
1510-5MERCERMONTST KillElli Tuftoset Teagan Jaynes+3.5
1610-6MONTST MERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+2.2
1711-6MERCERMONTST KillElli Tuftoset Teagan Jaynes+3.3
1811-7MONTST MERCER×3Serve errMontana St.+1.9
1911-8MERCERMERCER×3Attack errElli Tufto+4.5
2011-9MERCERMERCER×3AceMerceraced Nicolette Noble+7.2
2112-9MERCERMONTST ×3KillElli Tuftoset Teagan Jaynes+7.5
2213-9MONTST MONTST ×3KillJoelie Speltsset Teagan Jaynes+6.5
2314-9MONTST MONTST ×3BlockedLara Mattablk Karli Heidemann, Joelie Spelts+2.9
2414-10MONTST MERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+0.5
2515-10MERCERMONTST KillKarli Heidemannset Teagan Jaynes+1.2

Score shown after each rally, Montana St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).