Mercer vs ETSU Volleyball: Mercer Wins 3-0 (Oct 2, 2026)

FinalFri, Oct 2, 2026ESPN+

3:0

RallyIQ pre-match: ETSU 82.8% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 2, 4:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Mercer won at ETSU 3-0 (27-25, 25-22, 25-18) on Fri, Oct 2, 2026. Mercer's Lara Matta led with 11 kills, and Aubri Martin added 14 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 4:00 PM CT · final Oct 2

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MERCER	27	25	25	3
ETSU	25	22	18	0

Match story · written from the play-by-play

RallyIQ gave Mercer 17%. Mercer won anyway.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are Mercer's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. RallyIQ had ETSU at 83% before first serve.

Turning point 1: Set 1 · Mercer 18–22 ETSU
From here Mercer won 9 of 12 rallies to take the set 27–25.
Mercer 10% → 36%
Turning point 2: Set 2 · Mercer 22–21 ETSU
Mercer won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 25–22 and lead 2–0. The match swung to Mercer.
Mercer 48% → 67%
Turning point 3: Set 3 · Mercer 18–18 ETSU
7 straight Mercer points broke an 18–18 tie and made it 25–18.
Mercer 72% → >99%

ETSU above 50Mercer belowMax swing 9.0%

MercerETSU

Sideout %: Mercer 58.2·ETSU 49.3
Break %: Mercer 50.7·ETSU 41.8
Hitting: Mercer .280·ETSU .216
Longest run: Mercer 7·ETSU 4

Joselynn Sanjurjo
5 kills inside the turning points, 10 K and .333 for the match (11 points).

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

ETSU above 50 · Mercer below

Biggest swing: 9.0% to Mercer — set 1, MERCER 27-25 ETSU. Attack error by Elizabeth Aylward. ETSU win probability 73% → 64%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MERCER 23.0%77.0% ETSU

Mercer wins

3-0

3.9%

3-1

7.8%

3-2

11.3%

ETSU wins

3-0

28.7%

3-1

29.3%

3-2

19.0%

MERCER break %: 40.6% vs this opp
ETSU break %: 46.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Elizabeth AylwardAttack error+9.0%
Attack error by Elizabeth Aylward
Set 1 · MERCER 27-25 ETSU · MERCER 27% → 36%
02
MercerAce+8.8%
Mercer ace on Makayla Bays
Set 2 · MERCER 23-21 ETSU · MERCER 48% → 57%
03
Bella PonsKill+7.6%
Kill by Bella Pons (set by Sammi Bergjans)
Set 1 · MERCER 25-24 ETSU · MERCER 19% → 27%
04
Joselynn SanjurjoBlock+7.1%
Karis Chatfield stuffed by Joselynn Sanjurjo
Set 2 · MERCER 24-21 ETSU · MERCER 57% → 64%
05
Emma MacFerranAttack error+6.9%
Attack error by Emma MacFerran
Set 2 · MERCER 21-19 ETSU · MERCER 46% → 53%
06
ETSUAce+6.8%
ETSU ace on Taylor Timko
Set 2 · MERCER 21-21 ETSU · ETSU 51% → 58%
07
Joselynn SanjurjoKill+6.7%
Kill by Joselynn Sanjurjo (set by Sammi Bergjans)
Set 3 · MERCER 20-18 ETSU · MERCER 77% → 83%
08
Taylor TimkoKill+6.4%
Kill by Taylor Timko (set by Aubri Martin)
Set 3 · MERCER 21-18 ETSU · MERCER 83% → 90%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Merceraway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
20Lara MattaOH	3	11	4	31	.226	0	1	0	4	3	0	0	0	12
3Joselynn SanjurjoMB	3	10	4	18	.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	11
15Brooklyn PalmerOH	3	6	4	15	.133	0	1	0	6	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
12Bella PonsMB	3	6	1	12	.417	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
21Sarah FragerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	3	1	6	0	0	0	0	3
8Sammi BergjansS	3	0	0	0	–	34	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0
19Taylor TimkoOH	3	7	1	17	.353	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	7
9Aubri MartinL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	1	1	14	0	0	0	0	1
11Emily MatiasOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		40	14	93	.280	38	7	3	37	4	1	2	2	77

ETSUhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
18Emma MacFerranMB	3	8	4	13	.308	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	9
20Elizabeth AylwardOH	3	6	3	15	.200	1	0	1	2	0	1	1	1.5	7.5
14Makayla BaysOH	3	6	4	17	.118	1	0	2	5	4	0	1	0.5	6.5
2Sophia DavisOH	3	6	1	16	.313	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
12Alex KreutzmannS	3	0	0	0	–	21	0	1	7	0	0	0	0	0
15Karis ChatfieldOH	2	4	3	17	.059	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	4
1Gianna BlairMB	3	7	1	11	.545	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	2	9
11Melanie MorrisDS	3	0	0	0	–	3	2	0	13	0	0	0	0	2
9Kennedy BoatmanS	3	0	0	0	–	15	0	2	8	0	0	0	0	0
6Chloe SmithOH	2	1	1	7	.000	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	3
16Malia BrinkmanOH	1	3	2	6	.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
Team totals		41	19	102	.216	41	4	9	37	7	2	8	6	65

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Mercer vs ETSU

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Fri, Oct 2, 2026Mercer at ETSU · Mercer won 3-0This match
Sat, Oct 3, 2026Mercer at ETSU · ETSU won 3-0Result →

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 MERCER · ETSU 4

Set 1

27-25

Longest run 5 MERCERETSU 4

Set 2

25-22

Longest run 3 MERCERETSU 4

Set 3

25-18

Longest run 7 MERCERETSU 4

Bars above the line = ETSU leads, below = Mercer leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Mercer

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	44%8/18	50%6/12
2	70%7/10	30%3/10
3	54%7/13	30%3/10
4	75%6/8	67%12/18
5	55%6/11	45%5/11
6	71%5/7	64%9/14
All	58%39/67	51%38/75

ETSU

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	73%8/11	56%9/16
2	58%7/12	43%6/14
3	40%6/15	22%2/9
4	55%6/11	50%6/12
5	33%5/15	45%5/11
6	45%5/11	0%0/5
All	49%37/75	42%28/67

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

142 rallies

#	MERCER-ETSU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Joselynn Sanjurjo	set Sammi Bergjans	+1.3
2	1-1	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Sophia Davis	set Alex Kreutzmann	+1.2
3	1-2	ETSU	ETSU	Kill	Sophia Davis	set Alex Kreutzmann	+1.5
4	2-2	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+1.2
5	3-2	MERCER	MERCER	Kill	Bella Pons	set Sammi Bergjans	+1.8
6	3-3	MERCER	ETSU	Attack err	Lara Matta		+1.2
7	3-4	ETSU	ETSU	Ace	ETSU	aced Lara Matta	+1.6
8	4-4	ETSU	MERCER×5	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+1.3
9	5-4	MERCER	MERCER×5	Kill	Brooklyn Palmer	set Sammi Bergjans	+1.9
10	6-4	MERCER	MERCER×5	Attack err	Elizabeth Aylward		+2.0
11	7-4	MERCER	MERCER×5	Kill	Lara Matta	set Aubri Martin	+2.1
12	8-4	MERCER	MERCER×5	Attack err	Emma MacFerran		+2.2
13	8-5	MERCER	ETSU×3	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Alex Kreutzmann	+1.4
14	8-6	ETSU	ETSU×3	Blocked	Taylor Timko	blk Elizabeth Aylward	+1.9
15	8-7	ETSU	ETSU×3	Kill	Gianna Blair	set Kennedy Boatman	+2.0
16	9-7	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Bella Pons	set Sammi Bergjans	+1.7
17	9-8	MERCER	ETSU×4	Kill	Elizabeth Aylward	set Kennedy Boatman	+1.5
18	9-9	ETSU	ETSU×4	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Melanie Morris	+2.0
19	9-10	ETSU	ETSU×4	Bad set	Sammi Bergjans		+1.9
20	9-11	ETSU	ETSU×4	Blocked	Brooklyn Palmer	blk Makayla Bays, Gianna Blair	+1.8
21	10-11	ETSU	MERCER	Serve err	ETSU		+1.3
22	10-12	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Gianna Blair	set Kennedy Boatman	+1.4
23	11-12	ETSU	MERCER	Attack err	Makayla Bays		+1.4
24	12-12	MERCER	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+2.2
25	12-13	MERCER	ETSU×3	Kill	Sophia Davis	set Kennedy Boatman	+1.6
26	12-14	ETSU	ETSU×3	Attack err	Joselynn Sanjurjo		+2.0
27	12-15	ETSU	ETSU×3	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Alex Kreutzmann	+1.7
28	13-15	ETSU	MERCER	Serve err	ETSU		+1.2
29	13-16	MERCER	ETSU	Serve err	Mercer		+1.3
30	14-16	ETSU	MERCER	Serve err	ETSU		+1.2
31	14-17	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Emma MacFerran	set Alex Kreutzmann	+1.4
32	15-17	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Bella Pons	set Sammi Bergjans	+1.3
33	15-18	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Emma MacFerran	set Alex Kreutzmann	+1.4
34	16-18	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Brooklyn Palmer	set Sammi Bergjans	+1.3
35	17-18	MERCER	MERCER	Kill	Taylor Timko		+2.3
36	17-19	MERCER	ETSU×3	Kill	Elizabeth Aylward	set Kennedy Boatman	+2.0
37	17-20	ETSU	ETSU×3	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Melanie Morris	+2.1
38	17-21	ETSU	ETSU×3	Attack err	Joselynn Sanjurjo		+1.5
39	18-21	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Joselynn Sanjurjo	set Brooklyn Palmer	+0.8
40	18-22	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Gianna Blair	set Kennedy Boatman	+1.1
41	19-22	ETSU	MERCER×3	Kill	Taylor Timko	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.7
42	20-22	MERCER	MERCER×3	Ace	Mercer		+1.6
43	21-22	MERCER	MERCER×3	Ace	Mercer	aced Karis Chatfield	+2.8
44	21-23	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Sophia Davis	set Melanie Morris	+2.9
45	22-23	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Joselynn Sanjurjo	set Sammi Bergjans	+2.2
46	23-23	MERCER	MERCER	Attack err	Makayla Bays		+5.1
47	23-24	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Alex Kreutzmann	+5.0
48	24-24	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+5.0
49	25-24	MERCER	MERCER	Kill	Bella Pons	set Sammi Bergjans	+7.6
50	25-25	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Alex Kreutzmann	+5.9
51	26-25	ETSU	MERCER	Blocked	Karis Chatfield	blk Bella Pons, Brooklyn Palmer	+5.9
52	27-25	MERCER	MERCER	Attack err	Elizabeth Aylward		+9.0
Set 2
1	0-1	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Elizabeth Aylward	set Makayla Bays	+1.8
2	1-1	ETSU	MERCER×3	Kill	Joselynn Sanjurjo	set Sammi Bergjans	+1.9
3	2-1	MERCER	MERCER×3	Ace	Mercer	aced Makayla Bays	+2.8
4	3-1	MERCER	MERCER×3	Attack err	Elizabeth Aylward		+3.0
5	3-2	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Gianna Blair	set Kennedy Boatman	+2.1
6	4-2	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Bella Pons	set Sammi Bergjans	+2.4
7	4-3	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Kennedy Boatman	+2.1
8	4-4	ETSU	ETSU	Ace	ETSU	aced Lara Matta	+2.8
9	5-4	ETSU	MERCER×3	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+2.3
10	6-4	MERCER	MERCER×3	Attack err	Makayla Bays		+3.3
11	7-4	MERCER	MERCER×3	Kill	Brooklyn Palmer	set Sammi Bergjans	+3.5
12	7-5	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Malia Brinkman	set Kennedy Boatman	+2.3
13	8-5	ETSU	MERCER×3	Attack err	Malia Brinkman		+2.8
14	9-5	MERCER	MERCER×3	Serve err	Mercer		+3.6
15	10-5	MERCER	MERCER×3	Bad set	Alex Kreutzmann		+3.5
16	10-6	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Emma MacFerran	set Alex Kreutzmann	+2.1
17	11-6	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Joselynn Sanjurjo	set Sammi Bergjans	+2.7
18	12-6	MERCER	MERCER	Kill	Taylor Timko	set Sammi Bergjans	+3.2
19	12-7	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Alex Kreutzmann	+1.8
20	12-8	ETSU	ETSU	Kill	Emma MacFerran	set Alex Kreutzmann	+2.9
21	13-8	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Joselynn Sanjurjo	set Sammi Bergjans	+2.8
22	13-9	MERCER	ETSU×4	Kill	Chloe Smith	set Alex Kreutzmann	+2.1
23	13-10	ETSU	ETSU×4	Bad set	Sammi Bergjans		+3.3
24	13-11	ETSU	ETSU×4	Attack err	Joselynn Sanjurjo		+3.6
25	13-12	ETSU	ETSU×4	Attack err	Lara Matta		+3.8
26	14-12	ETSU	MERCER	Serve err	ETSU		+3.4
27	14-13	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Gianna Blair	set Kennedy Boatman	+3.0
28	15-13	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Bella Pons	set Sammi Bergjans	+3.6
29	15-14	MERCER	ETSU×4	Kill	Malia Brinkman	set Kennedy Boatman	+3.1
30	15-15	ETSU	ETSU×4	Blocked	Bella Pons	blk Malia Brinkman, Gianna Blair	+4.3
31	15-16	ETSU	ETSU×4	Ace	ETSU	aced Lara Matta	+4.2
32	15-17	ETSU	ETSU×4	Blocked	Brooklyn Palmer	blk Gianna Blair	+3.8
33	16-17	ETSU	MERCER	Serve err	ETSU		+2.8
34	17-17	MERCER	MERCER	Attack err	Sophia Davis		+4.6
35	17-18	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Malia Brinkman	set Kennedy Boatman	+3.5
36	18-18	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Taylor Timko	set Sammi Bergjans	+3.8
37	19-18	MERCER	MERCER	Attack err	Malia Brinkman		+5.8
38	19-19	MERCER	ETSU	Serve err	Mercer		+4.1
39	20-19	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Brooklyn Palmer	set Sammi Bergjans	+4.9
40	21-19	MERCER	MERCER	Attack err	Emma MacFerran		+6.9
41	21-20	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Sophia Davis	set Alex Kreutzmann	+4.2
42	21-21	ETSU	ETSU	Ace	ETSU	aced Taylor Timko	+6.8
43	22-21	ETSU	MERCER×3	Attack err	Karis Chatfield		+6.3
44	23-21	MERCER	MERCER×3	Ace	Mercer	aced Makayla Bays	+8.8
45	24-21	MERCER	MERCER×3	Blocked	Karis Chatfield	blk Joselynn Sanjurjo	+7.1
46	24-22	MERCER	ETSU	Serve err	Mercer		+2.1
47	25-22	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Joselynn Sanjurjo	set Sammi Bergjans	+5.3
Set 3
1	0-1	ETSU	ETSU	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Elizabeth Aylward	+2.5
2	0-2	ETSU	ETSU	Attack err	Lara Matta		+2.3
3	1-2	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+1.8
4	1-3	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Alex Kreutzmann	+1.8
5	1-4	ETSU	ETSU	Blocked	Lara Matta	blk Emma MacFerran, Sophia Davis	+2.1
6	2-4	ETSU	MERCER	Serve err	ETSU		+1.6
7	3-4	MERCER	MERCER	Kill	Brooklyn Palmer	set Aubri Martin	+2.5
8	3-5	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Elizabeth Aylward	set Alex Kreutzmann	+1.9
9	3-6	ETSU	ETSU	Blocked	Brooklyn Palmer	blk Elizabeth Aylward, Emma MacFerran	+2.2
10	4-6	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+1.7
11	5-6	MERCER	MERCER	Attack err	Emma MacFerran		+2.6
12	5-7	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Emma MacFerran	set Alex Kreutzmann	+2.0
13	6-7	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Taylor Timko	set Sammi Bergjans	+2.1
14	6-8	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Elizabeth Aylward	set Kennedy Boatman	+2.0
15	7-8	ETSU	MERCER	Serve err	ETSU		+2.1
16	8-8	MERCER	MERCER	Ace	Mercer	aced Makayla Bays	+3.2
17	8-9	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Gianna Blair	set Kennedy Boatman	+2.4
18	9-9	ETSU	MERCER	Serve err	ETSU		+2.6
19	10-9	MERCER	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Aubri Martin	+3.8
20	10-10	MERCER	ETSU×4	Attack err	Brooklyn Palmer		+2.7
21	10-11	ETSU	ETSU×4	Attack err	Joselynn Sanjurjo		+3.5
22	10-12	ETSU	ETSU×4	Kill	Emma MacFerran	set Alex Kreutzmann	+3.2
23	10-13	ETSU	ETSU×4	Bad set	Sammi Bergjans		+2.7
24	11-13	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+2.0
25	11-14	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Sophia Davis	set Alex Kreutzmann	+2.1
26	11-15	ETSU	ETSU	Kill	Emma MacFerran	set Alex Kreutzmann	+2.3
27	12-15	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+1.5
28	12-16	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Elizabeth Aylward	set Alex Kreutzmann	+1.8
29	13-16	ETSU	MERCER×4	Kill	Brooklyn Palmer	set Sammi Bergjans	+1.5
30	14-16	MERCER	MERCER×4	Attack err	Emma MacFerran		+2.8
31	15-16	MERCER	MERCER×4	Attack err	Chloe Smith		+3.6
32	16-16	MERCER	MERCER×4	Ace	Mercer		+4.5
33	16-17	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Emma MacFerran	set Alex Kreutzmann	+3.5
34	17-17	ETSU	MERCER	Serve err	ETSU		+3.7
35	18-17	MERCER	MERCER	Ace	Mercer	aced Makayla Bays	+5.7
36	18-18	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Gianna Blair	set Kennedy Boatman	+4.0
37	19-18	ETSU	MERCER×7	Kill	Joselynn Sanjurjo	set Sammi Bergjans	+4.8
38	20-18	MERCER	MERCER×7	Kill	Joselynn Sanjurjo	set Sammi Bergjans	+6.7
39	21-18	MERCER	MERCER×7	Kill	Taylor Timko	set Aubri Martin	+6.4
40	22-18	MERCER	MERCER×7	Kill	Taylor Timko	set Sammi Bergjans	+5.2
41	23-18	MERCER	MERCER×7	Kill	Joselynn Sanjurjo	set Sammi Bergjans	+3.3
42	24-18	MERCER	MERCER×7	Attack err	Gianna Blair		+1.5
43	25-18	MERCER	MERCER×7	Attack err	Makayla Bays		+0.3

Score shown after each rally, Mercer first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Mercer def. ETSU 3–0

RallyIQ gave Mercer 17%. Mercer won anyway.