Mercer vs ETSU Volleyball: ETSU Wins 3-0 (Oct 3, 2026)

FinalSat, Oct 3, 2026

0:3

RallyIQ pre-match: ETSU 77.8% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 3, 9:56 AM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

ETSU beat visiting Mercer 3-0 (25-19, 27-25, 25-16) on Sat, Oct 3, 2026. Karis Chatfield led ETSU with 11 kills; Mercer's Lara Matta had a match-high 14.

Data through Nov 3, 3:00 PM CT · final Oct 3

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MERCER	19	25	16	0
ETSU	25	27	25	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Mercer hit .118. ETSU held them there all match.

No single rally moved win probability more than 5.1 points. Mercer peaked at 31% in Set 1. These are the stats that built the gap. ETSU went in as RallyIQ's 78% pick.

MercerETSU

Break %+13.0 pts
40.353.3
On serve: 40/75 against 25/62 (Mercer sideout 46.7%).
Longest run+0
55
5 straight ETSU points in the first set stretched a 19–18 lead to 24–18. That set ended 25–19.

ETSU above 50Mercer belowMax swing 5.1%

MercerETSU

Hitting: Mercer .118·ETSU .190
Aces: Mercer 3·ETSU 8
Serve err: Mercer 4·ETSU 3
Blocks: Mercer 6·ETSU 41 BS · 10 BA vs 1 BS · 6 BA
Digs: Mercer 53·ETSU 47

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

ETSU above 50 · Mercer below

Biggest swing: 5.1% to ETSU — set 2, MERCER 25-27 ETSU. Lara Matta stuffed by Gianna Blair & Elizabeth Aylward. ETSU win probability 91% → 96%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MERCER 23.0%77.0% ETSU

Mercer wins

3-0

3.9%

3-1

7.8%

3-2

11.3%

ETSU wins

3-0

28.7%

3-1

29.3%

3-2

19.0%

MERCER break %: 40.6% vs this opp
ETSU break %: 46.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Gianna Blair&Elizabeth AylwardBlock+5.1%
Lara Matta stuffed by Gianna Blair & Elizabeth Aylward
Set 2 · MERCER 25-27 ETSU · ETSU 91% → 96%
02
Sophia DavisKill+4.6%
Kill by Sophia Davis (set by Alex Kreutzmann)
Set 2 · MERCER 22-23 ETSU · ETSU 85% → 90%
03
Alex KreutzmannKill+4.4%
Kill by Alex Kreutzmann (set by Sophia Davis)
Set 2 · MERCER 23-24 ETSU · ETSU 86% → 91%
04
Lara MattaKill+4.4%
Kill by Lara Matta (set by Sammi Bergjans)
Set 2 · MERCER 24-24 ETSU · MERCER 9% → 14%
05
Sophia DavisKill+4.4%
Kill by Sophia Davis (set by Alex Kreutzmann)
Set 2 · MERCER 24-25 ETSU · ETSU 86% → 91%
06
Lara MattaKill+4.4%
Kill by Lara Matta (set by Sammi Bergjans)
Set 2 · MERCER 25-25 ETSU · MERCER 9% → 14%
07
Sophia DavisKill+4.4%
Kill by Sophia Davis (set by Alex Kreutzmann)
Set 2 · MERCER 25-26 ETSU · ETSU 86% → 91%
08
Sammi BergjansBad set+4.1%
Bad set by Sammi Bergjans
Set 2 · MERCER 22-22 ETSU · ETSU 81% → 85%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Merceraway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
20Lara MattaOH	3	14	9	38	.132	0	2	1	9	4	0	1	0.5	16.5
12Bella PonsMB	3	4	2	11	.182	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	2.5	6.5
3Joselynn SanjurjoMB	3	4	2	11	.182	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
15Brooklyn PalmerOH	3	3	3	16	.000	0	0	0	4	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
8Sammi BergjansS	3	1	0	2	.500	31	0	0	8	0	0	0	0	1
21Sarah FragerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	10	0	0	0	0	0
19Taylor TimkoOH	3	5	3	16	.125	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	1	6
9Aubri MartinL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	4	0	1	17	2	0	0	0	0
7Avery WilksMB	2	4	1	10	.300	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
11Emily MatiasOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
14Jasmine CaltonMB	2	0	2	5	-.400	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
6Brooke KaouiL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		35	22	110	.118	35	3	4	53	8	1	10	6	60

ETSUhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
15Karis ChatfieldOH	3	11	2	25	.360	0	3	1	5	0	0	1	0.5	14.5
14Makayla BaysOH	3	9	4	29	.172	0	2	2	11	3	0	0	0	11
2Sophia DavisOH	3	7	1	15	.400	1	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
1Gianna BlairMB	3	3	3	12	.000	0	0	0	4	0	1	2	2	5
18Emma MacFerranMB	3	3	3	9	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
12Alex KreutzmannS	3	1	0	1	1.000	15	1	0	6	0	0	0	0	2
20Elizabeth AylwardOH	3	6	3	22	.136	1	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
11Melanie MorrisDS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	5	1	0	8	0	0	0	0	1
4Ryan JomoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	0	4	0	0	0	0	1
17Bailey GohlkeS	3	0	1	2	-.500	16	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		40	18	116	.190	39	8	3	47	3	1	6	4	77

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Mercer vs ETSU

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Fri, Oct 2, 2026Mercer at ETSU · Mercer won 3-0Result →
Sat, Oct 3, 2026Mercer at ETSU · ETSU won 3-0This match

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 MERCER · ETSU 5

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 3 MERCERETSU 5

Set 2

25-27

Longest run 5 MERCERETSU 5

Set 3

16-25

Longest run 2 MERCERETSU 5

Bars above the line = ETSU leads, below = Mercer leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Mercer

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	46%6/13	13%1/8
2	43%6/14	63%10/16
3	46%6/13	50%6/12
4	46%6/13	25%2/8
5	60%6/10	45%5/11
6	42%5/12	14%1/7
All	47%35/75	40%25/62

ETSU

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%7/14	62%8/13
2	43%6/14	65%11/17
3	67%6/9	33%3/9
4	75%6/8	60%9/15
5	55%6/11	50%6/12
6	100%6/6	33%3/9
All	60%37/62	53%40/75

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

137 rallies

#	MERCER-ETSU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Melanie Morris	+1.3
2	0-2	ETSU	ETSU	Attack err	Lara Matta		+1.6
3	1-2	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+1.3
4	2-2	MERCER	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+1.8
5	2-3	MERCER	ETSU	Serve err	Mercer		+1.4
6	3-3	ETSU	MERCER	Serve err	ETSU		+1.5
7	3-4	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Bailey Gohlke	+1.4
8	4-4	ETSU	MERCER	Blocked	Karis Chatfield	blk Bella Pons, Brooklyn Palmer	+1.5
9	4-5	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Bailey Gohlke	+1.4
10	5-5	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Taylor Timko	set Aubri Martin	+1.5
11	6-5	MERCER	MERCER	Kill	Brooklyn Palmer	set Sammi Bergjans	+2.2
12	6-6	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Emma MacFerran	set Alex Kreutzmann	+1.6
13	6-7	ETSU	ETSU	Ace	ETSU	aced Lara Matta	+2.0
14	7-7	ETSU	MERCER	Serve err	ETSU		+1.6
15	7-8	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Emma MacFerran	set Alex Kreutzmann	+1.6
16	8-8	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Joselynn Sanjurjo	set Sammi Bergjans	+1.7
17	9-8	MERCER	MERCER	Attack err	Makayla Bays		+2.4
18	9-9	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Sophia Davis	set Alex Kreutzmann	+1.8
19	10-9	ETSU	MERCER×3	Bad set	Melanie Morris		+1.9
20	11-9	MERCER	MERCER×3	Attack err	Elizabeth Aylward		+2.7
21	12-9	MERCER	MERCER×3	Attack err	Melanie Morris		+2.7
22	12-10	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Elizabeth Aylward	set Bailey Gohlke	+1.8
23	12-11	ETSU	ETSU	Ace	ETSU	aced Lara Matta	+2.6
24	13-11	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Bella Pons	set Sammi Bergjans	+2.2
25	13-12	MERCER	ETSU×4	Kill	Elizabeth Aylward	set Bailey Gohlke	+2.0
26	13-13	ETSU	ETSU×4	Attack err	Lara Matta		+2.7
27	13-14	ETSU	ETSU×4	Attack err	Brooklyn Palmer		+2.7
28	13-15	ETSU	ETSU×4	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Elizabeth Aylward	+2.5
29	14-15	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+1.8
30	14-16	MERCER	ETSU×3	Kill	Elizabeth Aylward	set Bailey Gohlke	+1.9
31	14-17	ETSU	ETSU×3	Ace	ETSU	aced Taylor Timko	+2.2
32	14-18	ETSU	ETSU×3	Attack err	Lara Matta		+1.8
33	15-18	ETSU	MERCER×3	Kill	Brooklyn Palmer	set Sammi Bergjans	+1.1
34	16-18	MERCER	MERCER×3	Attack err	Emma MacFerran		+2.0
35	17-18	MERCER	MERCER×3	Kill	Taylor Timko	set Sammi Bergjans	+2.7
36	17-19	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Alex Kreutzmann	+2.3
37	18-19	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Taylor Timko	set Sammi Bergjans	+2.2
38	18-20	MERCER	ETSU×5	Kill	Sophia Davis	set Alex Kreutzmann	+2.5
39	18-21	ETSU	ETSU×5	Attack err	Joselynn Sanjurjo		+2.7
40	18-22	ETSU	ETSU×5	Attack err	Lara Matta		+1.8
41	18-23	ETSU	ETSU×5	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Ryan Jomo	+1.0
42	18-24	ETSU	ETSU×5	Attack err	Taylor Timko		+0.4
43	19-24	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Avery Wilks	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.1
44	19-25	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Gianna Blair	set Alex Kreutzmann	+0.1
Set 2
1	0-1	ETSU	ETSU	Attack err	Lara Matta		+1.3
2	1-1	ETSU	MERCER×3	Kill	Bella Pons	set Sammi Bergjans	+1.1
3	2-1	MERCER	MERCER×3	Attack err	Gianna Blair		+1.5
4	3-1	MERCER	MERCER×3	Attack err	Elizabeth Aylward		+1.6
5	3-2	MERCER	ETSU×3	Kill	Gianna Blair	set Bailey Gohlke	+1.1
6	3-3	ETSU	ETSU×3	Bad set	Sammi Bergjans		+1.5
7	3-4	ETSU	ETSU×3	Attack err	Bella Pons		+1.4
8	4-4	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+1.2
9	4-5	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Bailey Gohlke	+1.1
10	5-5	ETSU	MERCER	Attack err	Bailey Gohlke		+1.2
11	5-6	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Bailey Gohlke	+1.1
12	6-6	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Aubri Martin	+1.2
13	7-6	MERCER	MERCER	Blocked	Emma MacFerran	blk Joselynn Sanjurjo, Taylor Timko	+1.7
14	7-7	MERCER	ETSU×3	Kill	Sophia Davis	set Alex Kreutzmann	+1.3
15	7-8	ETSU	ETSU×3	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Melanie Morris	+1.6
16	7-9	ETSU	ETSU×3	Ace	ETSU	aced Lara Matta	+1.5
17	8-9	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Joselynn Sanjurjo	set Sammi Bergjans	+1.2
18	9-9	MERCER	MERCER	Attack err	Sophia Davis		+1.7
19	9-10	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Alex Kreutzmann	+1.3
20	9-11	ETSU	ETSU	Ace	ETSU	aced Aubri Martin	+1.6
21	10-11	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+1.2
22	10-12	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Gianna Blair	set Alex Kreutzmann	+1.3
23	11-12	ETSU	MERCER×5	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+1.3
24	12-12	MERCER	MERCER×5	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+1.9
25	13-12	MERCER	MERCER×5	Blocked	Makayla Bays	blk Lara Matta, Bella Pons	+2.2
26	14-12	MERCER	MERCER×5	Kill	Lara Matta	set Aubri Martin	+2.3
27	15-12	MERCER	MERCER×5	Kill	Brooklyn Palmer	set Sammi Bergjans	+2.3
28	15-13	MERCER	ETSU×5	Attack err	Brooklyn Palmer		+1.5
29	15-14	ETSU	ETSU×5	Attack err	Lara Matta		+2.2
30	15-15	ETSU	ETSU×5	Attack err	Lara Matta		+2.3
31	15-16	ETSU	ETSU×5	Blocked	Brooklyn Palmer	blk Gianna Blair	+2.3
32	15-17	ETSU	ETSU×5	Bad set	Sammi Bergjans		+2.1
33	16-17	ETSU	MERCER×5	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+1.5
34	17-17	MERCER	MERCER×5	Blocked	Gianna Blair	blk Bella Pons	+2.5
35	18-17	MERCER	MERCER×5	Ace	Mercer	aced Makayla Bays	+2.9
36	19-17	MERCER	MERCER×5	Kill	Bella Pons	set Sammi Bergjans	+3.0
37	20-17	MERCER	MERCER×5	Blocked	Elizabeth Aylward	blk Taylor Timko, Bella Pons	+2.9
38	20-18	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Melanie Morris	+1.7
39	20-19	ETSU	ETSU	Ace	ETSU	aced Taylor Timko	+2.8
40	21-19	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Sammi Bergjans	set Aubri Martin	+2.8
41	22-19	MERCER	MERCER	Ace	Mercer	aced Makayla Bays	+3.3
42	22-20	MERCER	ETSU×4	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Bailey Gohlke	+1.6
43	22-21	ETSU	ETSU×4	Kill	Emma MacFerran	set Alex Kreutzmann	+3.1
44	22-22	ETSU	ETSU×4	Bad set	Sammi Bergjans		+4.1
45	22-23	ETSU	ETSU×4	Kill	Sophia Davis	set Alex Kreutzmann	+4.6
46	23-23	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Taylor Timko	set Sammi Bergjans	+3.4
47	23-24	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Alex Kreutzmann	set Sophia Davis	+4.4
48	24-24	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+4.4
49	24-25	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Sophia Davis	set Alex Kreutzmann	+4.4
50	25-25	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+4.4
51	25-26	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Sophia Davis	set Alex Kreutzmann	+4.4
52	25-27	ETSU	ETSU	Blocked	Lara Matta	blk Gianna Blair, Elizabeth Aylward	+5.1
Set 3
1	0-1	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Elizabeth Aylward	set Bailey Gohlke	+0.5
2	1-1	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.6
3	1-2	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Elizabeth Aylward	set Melanie Morris	+0.6
4	1-3	ETSU	ETSU	Attack err	Bella Pons		+0.7
5	2-3	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Lara Matta	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.5
6	3-3	MERCER	MERCER	Kill	Bella Pons	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.8
7	3-4	MERCER	ETSU×3	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Bailey Gohlke	+0.6
8	3-5	ETSU	ETSU×3	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Alex Kreutzmann	+0.7
9	3-6	ETSU	ETSU×3	Attack err	Avery Wilks		+0.6
10	4-6	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Avery Wilks	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.5
11	4-7	MERCER	ETSU×3	Attack err	Jasmine Calton		+0.5
12	4-8	ETSU	ETSU×3	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Melanie Morris	+0.6
13	4-9	ETSU	ETSU×3	Ace	ETSU	aced Aubri Martin	+0.5
14	5-9	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Avery Wilks	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.3
15	6-9	MERCER	MERCER	Kill	Joselynn Sanjurjo	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.5
16	6-10	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Sophia Davis	set Alex Kreutzmann	+0.5
17	7-10	ETSU	MERCER	Attack err	Gianna Blair		+0.4
18	7-11	MERCER	ETSU×3	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Alex Kreutzmann	+0.5
19	7-12	ETSU	ETSU×3	Attack err	Joselynn Sanjurjo		+0.5
20	7-13	ETSU	ETSU×3	Attack err	Taylor Timko		+0.4
21	8-13	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Taylor Timko	set Sammi Bergjans	+0.2
22	8-14	MERCER	ETSU×5	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Bailey Gohlke	+0.3
23	8-15	ETSU	ETSU×5	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Bailey Gohlke	+0.3
24	8-16	ETSU	ETSU×5	Attack err	Lara Matta		+0.2
25	8-17	ETSU	ETSU×5	Kill	Makayla Bays	set Bailey Gohlke	+0.1
26	8-18	ETSU	ETSU×5	Ace	ETSU	aced Lara Matta	+0.1
27	9-18	ETSU	MERCER	Serve err	ETSU		·
28	10-18	MERCER	MERCER	Attack err	Makayla Bays		+0.1
29	10-19	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Elizabeth Aylward	set Bailey Gohlke	+0.1
30	11-19	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Avery Wilks	set Sammi Bergjans	·
31	12-19	MERCER	MERCER	Attack err	Emma MacFerran		+0.1
32	12-20	MERCER	ETSU	Kill	Karis Chatfield	set Bailey Gohlke	+0.1
33	12-21	ETSU	ETSU	Blocked	Jasmine Calton	blk Emma MacFerran, Karis Chatfield	+0.1
34	13-21	ETSU	MERCER	Blocked	Karis Chatfield	blk Jasmine Calton, Avery Wilks	·
35	14-21	MERCER	MERCER	Ace	Mercer	aced Makayla Bays	·
36	14-22	MERCER	ETSU	Serve err	Mercer		+0.1
37	15-22	ETSU	MERCER	Attack err	Makayla Bays		·
38	15-23	MERCER	ETSU	Serve err	Mercer		·
39	15-24	ETSU	ETSU	Blocked	Taylor Timko	blk Sophia Davis, Gianna Blair	·
40	16-24	ETSU	MERCER	Kill	Joselynn Sanjurjo	set Sammi Bergjans	·
41	16-25	MERCER	ETSU	Serve err	Mercer		·

Score shown after each rally, Mercer first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

ETSU def. Mercer 3–0

Mercer hit .118. ETSU held them there all match.