Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 10, 2026

Mercer def. Tennessee Tech 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Tennessee Tech 53.3% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 10, 12:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Mercer beat visiting Tennessee Tech 3-1 (25-21, 23-25, 25-23, 25-13) on Sat, Oct 10, 2026. Lara Matta led Mercer with 16 kills; Tennessee Tech's Alayna Pierce had a match-high 21.

Data through · final Oct 10

Set1234Sets
TNTECH212523131
MERCER252325253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

6 of the last 8 rallies went to Mercer, closing out Tennessee Tech.

The match turned twice; each line shows Mercer's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. RallyIQ had Tennessee Tech at 53% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · Tennessee Tech 22–22 Mercer

    Tennessee Tech won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 25–23 and level the match at 1–1. The match swung to Tennessee Tech.

    Mercer 67% → 47%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Tennessee Tech 5–7 Mercer

    Up 7–5, Mercer scored 7 straight to make it 14–5.

    Mercer 81% → 98%

Mercer above 50Tennessee Tech belowMax swing 10.8%

Tennessee TechMercer

Sideout %
Tennessee Tech 57.7·Mercer 68.7
Break %
Tennessee Tech 31.3·Mercer 42.3
Hitting
Tennessee Tech .158·Mercer .212
Longest run
Tennessee Tech 3·Mercer 7

Taylor Timko
10 kills on .185, 10 points; 4 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Mercer above 50 · Tennessee Tech below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+10.8% MERCERrally 180 · set 4

Biggest swing: 10.8% to Mercer — set 3, TNTECH 23-25 MERCER. Kill by Brooklyn Palmer (set by Sammi Bergjans). MERCER win probability 62% → 73%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

TNTECH 42.1%57.9% MERCER

Tennessee Tech wins

3-0
9.5%
3-1
15.4%
3-2
17.2%

Mercer wins

3-0
16.1%
3-1
22.1%
3-2
19.7%
TNTECH break %
43.3% vs this opp
MERCER break %
44.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Brooklyn PalmerKill+10.8%

    Kill by Brooklyn Palmer (set by Sammi Bergjans)

    Set 3 · TNTECH 23-25 MERCER · MERCER 62% → 73%

  2. 02

    Tuva Falk stuffed by Bella Pons & Lara Matta

    Set 3 · TNTECH 22-24 MERCER · MERCER 59% → 67%

  3. 03
    Ashlyn GambleKill+8.0%

    Kill by Ashlyn Gamble (set by Morgan Petelin)

    Set 2 · TNTECH 25-23 MERCER · TNTECH 45% → 53%

  4. 04
    Alayna PierceKill+7.9%

    Kill by Alayna Pierce

    Set 2 · TNTECH 23-22 MERCER · TNTECH 33% → 41%

  5. 05
    Alayna PierceKill+7.5%

    Kill by Alayna Pierce (set by Morgan Petelin)

    Set 2 · TNTECH 24-22 MERCER · TNTECH 41% → 48%

  6. 06

    Ace by Shelby Hannah on Sarah Frager

    Set 3 · TNTECH 22-23 MERCER · TNTECH 35% → 41%

  7. 07
    Lara MattaKill+5.8%

    Kill by Lara Matta (set by Sammi Bergjans)

    Set 3 · TNTECH 19-22 MERCER · MERCER 61% → 66%

  8. 08
    Alayna PierceKill+5.8%

    Kill by Alayna Pierce (set by Morgan Petelin)

    Set 2 · TNTECH 21-21 MERCER · TNTECH 27% → 33%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
4211158.17220061010.521.5
46017.35300030010.56.5
4318.25039011501014
35320.100103220005
25313.154000300005
2105.20000000010.51.5
41011.0003301530004
4011-1.0003021610000
36415.13300030010.56.5
33313.000103700003
2225.000001000002
1001.000000100000
1001.000001110000
Team totals5328158.1584931172814382
Mercerhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416653.18900280031.517.5
49123.348000150031.510.5
410527.1850000000010
48424.167000201019
4409.444343270010.57.5
42111.09100000073.55.5
4000–6322410003
4000–211300001
4000–211620001
1114.000000000001
Team totals5018151.2124488653114898

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Tennessee Tech vs Mercer

Season series · Mercer leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 3 TNTECH · MERCER 7

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 3 TNTECHMERCER 4

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 3 TNTECHMERCER 6

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 2 TNTECHMERCER 3

Set 4

13-25

Longest run 3 TNTECHMERCER 7

Bars above the line = Mercer leads, below = Tennessee Tech leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Tennessee Tech

SlotSideout %Break %
1
52%11/21
36%5/14
2
50%11/22
31%5/16
3
58%11/19
21%3/14
4
75%9/12
42%8/19
5
47%7/15
20%2/10
6
88%7/8
30%3/10
All
58%56/97
31%26/83

Mercer

SlotSideout %Break %
1
79%11/14
31%4/13
2
61%11/18
58%15/26
3
61%11/18
45%9/20
4
75%9/12
23%3/13
5
73%8/11
50%8/16
6
70%7/10
22%2/9
All
69%57/83
42%41/97

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

180 rallies

#TNTECH-MERCERSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1TNTECHMERCERServe errTennessee Tech+1.9
20-2MERCERMERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjo+2.4
31-2MERCERTNTECHKillAva Schubertset Shelby Hannah+1.9
41-3TNTECHMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+2.0
52-3MERCERTNTECHAttack errLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+1.9
62-4TNTECHMERCERKillSammi Bergjansset Aubri Martin+2.0
73-4MERCERTNTECHAttack errLara Mattaset Aubri Martin+1.9
83-5TNTECHMERCERKillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+2.1
94-5MERCERTNTECHKillAlayna Pierceset Morgan Petelin+2.0
104-6TNTECHMERCERKillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+2.1
115-6MERCERTNTECHKillJordyn Milhouseset Morgan Petelin+2.0
125-7TNTECHMERCERKillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+2.2
136-7MERCERTNTECHKillJordyn Milhouseset Morgan Petelin+2.1
146-8TNTECHMERCERServe errTennessee Tech+2.2
156-9MERCERMERCERAttack errAva Schubert+2.7
167-9MERCERTNTECH×3KillJordyn Milhouseset Morgan Petelin+2.0
178-9TNTECHTNTECH×3KillAva Schubertset Aubri Martin+2.7
189-9TNTECHTNTECH×3AceShelby Hannahaced Aubri Martin+2.9
199-10TNTECHMERCERAttack errAlayna Pierceset Morgan Petelin+2.4
209-11MERCERMERCERAceMerceraced Audrey Berkebile+3.0
2110-11MERCERTNTECHServe errMercer+2.3
2210-12TNTECHMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+2.5
2311-12MERCERTNTECHAttack errLara Mattaset Aubri Martin+2.4
2411-13TNTECHMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+2.6
2511-14MERCERMERCERAttack errAudrey Berkebile+3.1
2612-14MERCERTNTECHKillMorgan Petelinset Audrey Berkebile+2.2
2713-14TNTECHTNTECHKillJordyn Milhouseset Morgan Petelin+3.2
2813-15TNTECHMERCERAttack errAlayna Pierceset Morgan Petelin+2.8
2913-16MERCERMERCERKillTaylor Timkoset Emily Matias+3.3
3014-16MERCERTNTECHKillAlayna Pierceset Morgan Petelin+2.3
3115-16TNTECHTNTECHKillAudrey Berkebileset Morgan Petelin+3.4
3215-17TNTECHMERCERAttack errMorgan Petelinset Shelby Hannah+3.1
3316-17MERCERTNTECHAttack errTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+2.9
3417-17TNTECHTNTECHAttack errJoselynn Sanjurjo+4.1
3517-18TNTECHMERCER×4Serve errTennessee Tech+3.5
3617-19MERCERMERCER×4AceMerceraced Kamya Mahorn+4.4
3717-20MERCERMERCER×4KillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+3.9
3817-21MERCERMERCER×4Attack errAva Schubert+3.1
3918-21MERCERTNTECHKillAlayna Pierceset Morgan Petelin+1.7
4019-21TNTECHTNTECHKillAva Schubertset Morgan Petelin+3.1
4119-22TNTECHMERCERKillSammi Bergjansset Aubri Martin+3.5
4220-22MERCERTNTECHKillMallory Jenkins+2.4
4320-23TNTECHMERCERBlockedMorgan Petelinblk Sammi Bergjans, Ella Watford+3.7
4421-23MERCERTNTECHKillAlayna Pierceset Morgan Petelin+2.2
4521-24TNTECHMERCERKillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+3.8
4621-25MERCERMERCERKillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+2.0
Set 2
11-0MERCERTNTECHServe errMercer+2.0
21-1TNTECHMERCER×6Serve errTennessee Tech+2.0
31-2MERCERMERCER×6Attack errAudrey Berkebile+2.5
41-3MERCERMERCER×6AceMerceraced Shelby Hannah+2.5
51-4MERCERMERCER×6KillLara Mattaset Sarah Frager+2.5
61-5MERCERMERCER×6KillLara Mattaset Aubri Martin+2.4
71-6MERCERMERCER×6Attack errAva Schubert+2.2
82-6MERCERTNTECHKillAudrey Berkebileset Morgan Petelin+1.5
92-7TNTECHMERCERServe errTennessee Tech+1.8
103-7MERCERTNTECHServe errMercer+1.5
113-8TNTECHMERCERKillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+1.8
124-8MERCERTNTECHKillAva Schubertset Morgan Petelin+1.5
134-9TNTECHMERCERAttack errAlayna Pierceset Morgan Petelin+1.8
145-9MERCERTNTECH×3KillAlayna Pierceset Shelby Hannah+1.5
156-9TNTECHTNTECH×3Attack errJoselynn Sanjurjo+2.3
167-9TNTECHTNTECH×3BlockedJoselynn Sanjurjoblk Morgan Petelin+2.6
177-10TNTECHMERCERKillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+2.3
188-10MERCERTNTECHKillTuva Falkset Morgan Petelin+2.1
198-11TNTECHMERCERKillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+2.4
209-11MERCERTNTECHKillJordyn Milhouseset Morgan Petelin+2.1
219-12TNTECHMERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+2.4
2210-12MERCERTNTECHKillBella Potempaset Alayna Pierce+2.2
2311-12TNTECHTNTECHAttack errAvery Wilks+3.1
2411-13TNTECHMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+2.7
2511-14MERCERMERCERAceMerceraced Shelby Hannah+3.2
2612-14MERCERTNTECH×3KillAlayna Pierceset Lara Matta+2.3
2713-14TNTECHTNTECH×3AceShelby Hannahaced Sarah Frager+3.3
2814-14TNTECHTNTECH×3KillAlayna Pierceset Morgan Petelin+3.6
2914-15TNTECHMERCERKillLara Matta+3.1
3015-15MERCERTNTECHKillAva Schubert+3.0
3116-15TNTECHTNTECHKillAlayna Pierceset Morgan Petelin+4.0
3216-16TNTECHMERCERServe errTennessee Tech+3.2
3317-16MERCERTNTECHKillAlayna Pierce+3.4
3417-17TNTECHMERCERKillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+3.4
3518-17MERCERTNTECHKillElla Watford+3.6
3618-18TNTECHMERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+3.6
3718-19MERCERMERCERAttack errAlayna Pierce+4.9
3819-19MERCERTNTECHAttack errLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+3.9
3919-20TNTECHMERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+4.3
4019-21MERCERMERCERAceMerceraced Alayna Pierce+5.3
4120-21MERCERTNTECHServe errMercer+3.6
4221-21TNTECHTNTECHKillAlayna Pierceset Morgan Petelin+5.8
4321-22TNTECHMERCERServe errTennessee Tech+5.4
4422-22MERCERTNTECH×3KillAshlyn Gambleset Morgan Petelin+5.2
4523-22TNTECHTNTECH×3KillAlayna Pierce+7.9
4624-22TNTECHTNTECH×3KillAlayna Pierceset Morgan Petelin+7.5
4724-23TNTECHMERCERKillAvery Wilksset Sammi Bergjans+3.6
4825-23MERCERTNTECHKillAshlyn Gambleset Morgan Petelin+8.0
Set 3
11-0TNTECHTNTECHKillBella Potempaset Ella Watford+3.2
21-1TNTECHMERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+2.6
32-1MERCERTNTECHAttack errLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+2.6
42-2TNTECHMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+2.6
53-2MERCERTNTECHKillAshlyn Gambleset Morgan Petelin+2.7
64-2TNTECHTNTECHKillAlayna Pierceset Ella Watford+3.3
74-3TNTECHMERCER×3Serve errTennessee Tech+2.6
84-4MERCERMERCER×3Attack errTuva Falk+3.4
94-5MERCERMERCER×3BlockedAshlyn Gambleblk Lara Matta, Bella Pons+3.5
105-5MERCERTNTECHServe errMercer+2.8
115-6TNTECHMERCERAttack errAlayna Pierceset Morgan Petelin+2.9
126-6MERCERTNTECHKillAlayna Pierce+2.9
136-7TNTECHMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+3.0
146-8MERCERMERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+3.7
157-8MERCERTNTECHKillTuva Falkset Morgan Petelin+2.8
167-9TNTECHMERCERServe errTennessee Tech+3.1
177-10MERCERMERCERAttack errBella Potempa+3.7
188-10MERCERTNTECHAttack errTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+2.7
199-10TNTECHTNTECHKillAlayna Pierceset Morgan Petelin+3.7
209-11TNTECHMERCER×3KillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+3.3
219-12MERCERMERCER×3Ball handlingJordyn Milhouse+3.9
229-13MERCERMERCER×3Attack errAshlyn Gamble+3.6
2310-13MERCERTNTECHKillMorgan Petelinset Bella Potempa+2.4
2411-13TNTECHTNTECHBlockedJoselynn Sanjurjoblk Jordyn Milhouse, Alayna Pierce+3.6
2511-14TNTECHMERCERServe errTennessee Tech+3.3
2611-15MERCERMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+3.7
2712-15MERCERTNTECHKillAlayna Pierceset Morgan Petelin+2.5
2812-16TNTECHMERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjo+3.1
2913-16MERCERTNTECHKillAlayna Pierceset Morgan Petelin+2.5
3014-16TNTECHTNTECHAttack errBella Pons+3.8
3114-17TNTECHMERCERBlockedAlayna Pierceblk Bella Pons, Brooklyn Palmer+3.7
3215-17MERCERTNTECHServe errMercer+3.2
3315-18TNTECHMERCERKillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+3.9
3416-18MERCERTNTECHServe errMercer+3.2
3516-19TNTECHMERCERKillTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+4.0
3617-19MERCERTNTECHKillJordyn Milhouse+3.3
3717-20TNTECHMERCERBlockedAlayna Pierceblk Joselynn Sanjurjo+4.2
3818-20MERCERTNTECHKillAshlyn Gambleset Morgan Petelin+3.3
3919-20TNTECHTNTECHKillAlayna Pierceset Morgan Petelin+5.5
4019-21TNTECHMERCERKillLara Matta+5.5
4119-22MERCERMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+5.8
4220-22MERCERTNTECHKillJordyn Milhouseset Morgan Petelin+3.2
4320-23TNTECHMERCERAttack errAlayna Pierceset Ella Watford+4.9
4421-23MERCERTNTECHKillAlayna Pierceset Morgan Petelin+2.9
4522-23TNTECHTNTECHAceShelby Hannahaced Sarah Frager+6.3
4622-24TNTECHMERCERBlockedTuva Falkblk Bella Pons, Lara Matta+8.1
4723-24MERCERTNTECHKillAlayna Pierceset Morgan Petelin+4.8
4823-25TNTECHMERCERKillBrooklyn Palmerset Sammi Bergjans+10.8
Set 4
10-1MERCERMERCERAttack errAlayna Pierce+3.3
20-2MERCERMERCERKillJoselynn Sanjurjoset Sammi Bergjans+3.3
31-2MERCERTNTECHAttack errLara Mattaset Aubri Martin+2.6
41-3TNTECHMERCERKillSammi Bergjansset Sarah Frager+2.7
51-4MERCERMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+3.3
62-4MERCERTNTECHKillAshlyn Gambleset Alayna Pierce+2.5
72-5TNTECHMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+2.7
82-6MERCERMERCERAceMerceraced Ella Watford+3.2
93-6MERCERTNTECHKillShelby Hannahset Morgan Petelin+2.3
104-6TNTECHTNTECHAttack errBrooklyn Palmer+3.2
114-7TNTECHMERCERKillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+2.8
125-7MERCERTNTECHServe errMercer+2.6
135-8TNTECHMERCER×7KillTaylor Timkoset Aubri Martin+2.9
145-9MERCERMERCER×7KillTaylor Timkoset Emily Matias+3.4
155-10MERCERMERCER×7Attack errBella Potempa+3.0
165-11MERCERMERCER×7Attack errBella Potempa+2.6
175-12MERCERMERCER×7AceMerceraced Shelby Hannah+2.1
185-13MERCERMERCER×7KillTaylor Timkoset Ella Watford+1.6
195-14MERCERMERCER×7KillTaylor Timko+1.2
206-14MERCERTNTECHAttack errTaylor Timkoset Sammi Bergjans+0.7
216-15TNTECHMERCERAttack errAshlyn Gambleset Ella Watford+0.9
227-15MERCERTNTECH×3KillAudrey Berkebileset Morgan Petelin+0.6
238-15TNTECHTNTECH×3Attack errTaylor Timko+1.0
249-15TNTECHTNTECH×3BlockedTaylor Timkoblk Mallory Jenkins, Ashlyn Gamble+1.4
259-16TNTECHMERCERServe errTennessee Tech+1.6
2610-16MERCERTNTECHKillAudrey Berkebileset Morgan Petelin+1.1
2710-17TNTECHMERCERKillSammi Bergjansset Aubri Martin+1.5
2810-18MERCERMERCERBlockedAshlyn Gambleblk Bella Pons, Lara Matta+1.3
2911-18MERCERTNTECHKillAshlyn Gambleset Ella Watford+0.6
3011-19TNTECHMERCER×5KillLara Mattaset Sammi Bergjans+0.9
3111-20MERCERMERCER×5Attack errAlayna Pierce+0.7
3211-21MERCERMERCER×5BlockedAlayna Pierceblk Brooklyn Palmer, Bella Pons+0.3
3311-22MERCERMERCER×5KillBella Pons+0.1
3411-23MERCERMERCER×5AceMerceraced Audrey Berkebile·
3512-23MERCERTNTECHKillAlayna Pierceset Morgan Petelin·
3613-23TNTECHTNTECHKillAudrey Berkebileset Morgan Petelin·
3713-24TNTECHMERCERKillBella Ponsset Ella Watford·
3813-25MERCERMERCERBlockedAudrey Berkebileblk Brooklyn Palmer, Bella Pons·

Score shown after each rally, Tennessee Tech first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).